I agree with many of you that Sullivan has been a great source for collected Iranian election coverage, but yesterday he published, without comment, this “reader” email:
Drum is both shrewd and correct. A bare Ahmadinejad win would have hidden the fraud. A bare Mousavi win would have been much better for the regime’s atomic bomb program, however. But they may have fatally overreached, like the Shah.
Remember when the Shah sent the Imperial Guard (“the Immortals”) into the streets, and they broke before the masses? We may be on the cusp of another legitimacy crisis here. Mousavi WAS the smarter choice for the regime: a smoother talker, talk of reform, while the centrifuges spin away and the bomb is built in secret. Meanwhle, the IAF’s Squadron 69 is kept on a tight leash by Obama lest the “moderate” President be undermined.
But no, apparently Khameinei is undermined by his own inner demons and past disagreements with Mousavi from the Revolutionary Days and the War Years. So, the urge to humiliate the Upstart overwhelmed Khameini.
Unless there is a popular uprising in favor of Mousavi and democratic legitimacy, the fascist coup will succeed. In that case, matters will be far worse. Bear this in mind: Hewitt and Krauthammer are correct.
If the coup d’etat is successful, the Israeli Defense Forces will have no choice but to act in the defense of the survival of the Jewish people and act to reduce the mortal danger to the State of Israel. Ali-Khameini and his stooge, Ahmadhi-Nejad and the Revolutionary Guards Corps clique are Islamic fascists, who will do anything to hang on to power. The Israeli Government cannot countenance such a group of people with deliverable Atomic Weapons. There will be war. Bet on this and take that bet to that bank.
As a general rule, I’d be wary of anything that includes the assertion that Hugh Hewitt is right about anything. Who was that reader? Marty Peretz? Michael Goldfarb? Frank Gaffney? Bill Kristol?
For those of you who are slow on the uptake, the message from that reader is clear- if Mousavi wins, the IDF needs to bomb Iran because they will stealthily be creating nukes, and if Ahmadalphabet wins, well then the IDF just has to bomb for the survival of mankind. Anyone who moves is a VC, anyone who stands still is a well-trained VC, etc., ad nauseum.
spooked
I do wonder if this sabre-rattling will ever go anywhere; there’s been threats about bombing Iran for years now. I have to think it’s all a programmed distraction more than anything else.
LD50
Netanyahu writes English extremely well.
I, for one, welcome our new Likud overlords.
MattF
The whole Neocons for Ahmadinejad campaign is a giveaway– generally, anyone who comes up with the Leninist argument that ‘worse is better’ is a fool with an axe to grind.
beltane
Krauthammer is only correct in the sense that if everyone on the planet who is not a member of the AEI is obliterated, he will then be able to sleep at night knowing that the terrorists have not won. However, he would wake up the following morning certain that his good buddy Bill Kristol was actually a terrorist who must be destroyed.
Death By Mosquito Truck
I always forget why we care if Israel survives or not and then I remember it’s because we need them to be destroyed when Revenge Jesus returns.
Michael
My money says Peretz or Kristol. Or maybe Bolton.
They’d be reckless enough to encourage the doofiest of the doofus hardliners in Israel to fuck up the gains being made in Iran. I’ve noticed that they’ve had some sockpuppets around the intertubes pretending that a massive strike is the way to go now, that somehow, a strike would make the people rise against the Mullahs en masse.
These fuckups haven’t even thought through how it would galvanize the Iranians and sweep away the current huge tide of popular discontent. Given the lack of sober reflection and analysis, it is hard to imagine now that these people called the shots for 8 years. Of course, it does explain the wreckage of policy they left behind.
Cain
@LD50:
Underworld 4!
cain
demkat620
Well, it’s too coherent to be Kristol or Goldfarb. I’d bet it’s Michael O’Hanlon. Or maybe Max Boot.
Michael
More than a few of the nutters have been commenting that they want these Iranian protestors crushed by Ahmadinejad, along with a consolidation of his power lest it appear that Obama is succeeding.
But they love America more than we do, see.
JenJen
Apropos of the situation in Iran, I have to recommend a truly excellent animated film, about one young girl’s account of the Iranian Revolution, “Persepolis.”
Netflix it. It’s unforgettable.
omen
um…which muslim country has actual, not hypothetical, nuclear warheads? which the taliban is destabilizing with violence and threatening to overrun.
linda
pat lang’s (frightening) take:
Ahmadinajad’s win is bad news unless you are looking forward to the day when the US goes to war with Iran. Israeli propaganda will continue to program the American public in preparation for that day. They have been doing very well in this effort so far. The media outlets and media friends are busy every day inculcating the idea that Iran is a deadly threat and must be “stopped.” The effort to discredit US intelligence is also progressing nicely. The goal there is to gain general acceptance in the US of the notion that Israeli intelligence is better, smarter, more effective than US intelligence and therefore the Israeli estimate of the Iranian “menace” should govern decisions.
If nothing interrupts the progress of this “informational” campaign the US will attack Iran at some not too far distant time, not tomorrow, not next week, maybe not net month, but, soon. The “end of the year” now takes on greater meaning.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/
Jay C
John, I think you’re right: ANY correspondence that contains the phrase:
is immediately suspect, and should be granted about as much credibility as those “you WON the Lottery” or body-part-enlargement emails that land in your spambox.
But aside from the unpleasant prospect of having to listen to neocon gloating, the Iranian election fiasco really has thrown a monkey-wrench into MidEast diplomacy. It was hard enough dealing with an hardline Iranian dictatorship in the first place: that the mullahs (or some subset thereof) have decided that even the appearance of electoral legitimacy is henceforth irrelevant isn’t going to make things any easier.
omen
the fact that there is little sword rattling against pakistan raises the question, if iran did have nukes, would israel and neocons continue being so fervent about bombing the country?
Zach
With the exception of admitting that an unsourced graph he posted was utterly unconvincing of fraud, Sullivan’s been unflinchingly uncritical (unconservative if you will) when it comes to analyzing the evidence of fraud in Iran. I hoped for reform following the news this week, too, but I’m not remotely convinced that fraud occurred. To me, the last few days are an exact replay of Venezuela in 2004.
For one obvious example, any photo stream you find of pictures of police brutality on individual protesters includes photos of groups of protesters beating individual policemen. Instead, Sullivan interprets a close-cropped photo of a protester holding a riot cop as trying to help the guy. I don’t know if it’s true or not (and obviously, there’s real evidence of unwarranted police brutality which is totally expected), but it’s an example of the sort of rush to judgement that he’s famous for. It’s unfortunate since he was appropriately cautious during the Georgia/Russia conflict; I guess the difference here is his visceral hatred of authoritarian Islamic governance (something I share, but can put aside in favor of logic).
Zach
I’m also somewhat curious what endgame people see in supporting what are apparently small protests in proportion to the population of Tehran (several thousand in a city of seven million); it’s inspiring now, but it could turn incredibly tragic in an instant. It’s easy to encourage martyrdom from a keyboard 10,000 miles away from the likely massacre. I don’t think there’s a very good record of massacres leading to the overthrow of modern authoritarian regimes, either.
Lyle4
1) I think most Americans are sick of Israel. Dude, yeah, we like you and we want to help you (sometimes), but We’re Just Not That Into You anymore.
2) I’m also almost certain that’s it’s going to take nothing short of a nuclear blast to convince Americans that another war is a good idea.
Mr Furious
@Lyle4:
1. Yes.
2. Double-Yes.
Lyle4
Seriously? Like………seriously?
Notorious P.A.T.
Huh. I didn’t know Iran was ruled by liberals.
smiley
Zakaria is a must watch
todayin a few minutes, though I might have a hard time tearing myself away from the Bizarre Foods marathon.Agi
Umm, hasn’t the fascist coup been running the place since ’79? This ain’t anything new, folks.
Ked
I see Jay C mostly got to my point before I did.
Everything about the logic is wrong, wrong, wrong. But… it accurately lays out what I think the current Israeli establishment is going to think. Bibi and friends have locked themselves into a first-strike scenario, and they will genuinely believe the Iran coup government is literally planning their destruction. After all, that’s what Ahmedinadoodoo says he wants, and now he may be installed as president for life.
So they’ll see no chance for compromise, no possibility of moderation, no point in playing along with US pleas for not fucking up the entire region. And they’ll strike, and to destroy the targets as I understand they exist it’ll have to be an honest-to-god air *campaign*, not just a couple of planes dropping a couple of bombs one time.
Unless they go nuclear – and if you’re going to do something which will destroy all chance for peace in the region, well, you might as well go all the way.
So yeah. If the coup stands and the Iranian regime (and it’ll finally be appropriate to use that terminology) doesn’t immediately (and unexpectedly) cave on the nuclear issue, I agree with the basic point of the analysis. There will be war. Call it a 60%+ probability, with a 10% chance of nukes.
gbear
When I want an opinion about free and fair elections, my first choice as a go-to will always be Katherine Harris…
john b
This and this are totally worth a look from everyone. crazy stuff going on. the ayatollah’s daughter is said to have been arrested.
MattF
@gbear
Reality is so much weirder than anything one could imagine.
omen
@Zach:
I’m also somewhat curious what endgame people see in supporting what are apparently small protests in proportion to the population of Tehran (several thousand in a city of seven million); it’s inspiring now, but it could turn incredibly tragic in an instant. It’s easy to encourage martyrdom from a keyboard 10,000 miles away from the likely massacre. I don’t think there’s a very good record of massacres leading to the overthrow of modern authoritarian regimes, either.
i doubt any of us are egging anybody on to take to the streets. why are you so eager to blame us for it? these people know better than you or i the risk they are taking.
flounder
Well I did hear that Iran is a year away from building the nuclular bomb. And since i heard that in 2001, They have had it for 7 years.
Be afraid.
Zach
@Lyle4:
Is that an argument? Point me to any summary of evidence that comes close to proving fraud; Juan Cole’s points are interesting but his explanations are incomplete and unsourced. How unpopular was Ahmadinejad in the cities? How do we know this? Why would Azeri Turks necessarily vote for an ethnic Azeri over someone who’d been a regional governor there and speaks Azeri? Did residents of Tehran hate Ahmadinejad when he was their mayor? Isn’t that a fact worth discussing? Perhaps these are easy questions to answer – I know nearly nothing about Iran that I haven’t learned in the past three days. In fact, I bet more than 95% of people paid to comment about the Iranian elections hadn’t heard of Moussavi 10 days ago; I certainly hadn’t.
We’ve been conditioned to assume fraud here based on years of villification of Iran. The fact is, the country and its government aren’t as black and white as we like to think. Check out James Dobbins on dialog with Iran in 2001. When it comes down to it, most are willing to add some appeals to authority to that and assume it’s an open-and-shut case.
Take a few minutes to read about the immediate aftermath of the 2004 Venezuela referendum and see how many parallels there are with the last three days. It’s not difficult to manufacture the appearance of fraud when everyone hates the party in power to start with. I’m not saying that’s what happened, just that it’s a possibility that’s being dismissed. On top of that, people bringing it up are being ridiculed for doing so (not here, thankfully). We found out in 2003 that assumption and ridicule are poor substitutes for skeptical consideration of the available facts.
Zach
@omen:
I’m not suggesting that anyone in Tehran is gripped by blog comments sections. Talk here just mirrors that in more or less the entire Western media (when they aren’t talking about Sarah Palin) and there’s probably not a willingness to provide the material support that’d match the moral support for the protesters. I think Obama and Gibbs and Biden today were very smart to stay out of it.
AhabTRuler
If the primary goal is total destruction of the nuclear program, it is virtually certain that they would have to go nuclear. IIRC (and I haven’t been following to closely), development of conventional bunker busters with sufficient penetrating power has been difficult, if not impossible.
If, however, the goal is to engage in Desert Storm-type infrastructure destruction in hopes of fatally degrading the overall nuclear/industrial base, then conventional weapons would be sufficient. However, it is not clear that the IAF has the capability to mount such an offensive w/o direct US involvement.
Again, IIRC, the long-range, multiple-aerial-refulling missions that the IAF has been practicing are more suitable for the nuclear scenario than otherwise. The British had little success with long-range conventional bombing missions of the Port Stanley Airport runway in the Falkland Islands, and anti-runway bombing was supposed to be a RAF specialty during the Cold War.
Ked
@Agi:
Uh, no. Get your terminology right – it’s been a really messed-up constitutional theocracy for the last thirty years.
stickler
Nothing has really changed regarding Israel. The IDF can launch a big raid on Iran, but to do it they’ll need US support. They can’t even pretend to be able to launch a “campaign” against every Iranian target, and even Bibi has to know that such a “campaign” (which is, again, IMPOSSIBLE for the IDF) would kill lots of civilians and probably miss half of the Iranian nuke program.
Bibi can stamp his feet, Bolton can gravely intone Armageddon, the Likudniks can shriek to high heaven all they want. It still comes down to this: no matter who’s in charge in Tehran, Uncle Sam has a veto on military strikes against Iran. Period, full stop. And I’ve seen nothing at all to indicate that Obama wants to bomb Iran, or wants Israel to bomb Iran.
gnomedad
Weird; I just watched Full Metal Jacket for the first time last night.
geg6
I have to question exactly what sort of knowledge Zach has that no one else does that makes hoping for and cheering on a popular uprising that was begun organically a stupid, bad, or unrealistic thing. I mean, I’m old enough to have been well into adulthood when many similar uprisings were occurring almost every other week, including one in Iran. I’m suspect of anyone stating that they know what will happen. Only stupid, arrogant, or neocon types say stuff like that.
omen
@Zach:
I’m not suggesting that anyone in Tehran is gripped by blog comments sections.
what’s this then?
It’s easy to encourage martyrdom from a keyboard 10,000 miles away from the likely massacre.
nobody wants to see a massacre, why accuse us of fomenting one? your whole tone mocking the protesters small numbers and suggesting the pointless recklessness of their courage has been nothing but DICKISH. i can’t believe how disgusting you are.
AhabTRuler
@stickler: Do not underestimate Israel’s willingness to move despite the possibility or even likelihood of failure.
Bibi can stamp his feet, and the IAF can fly their missions, and short of US firing upon IAF aircraft, there is nothing Barack Obama or the US military can do about it.
ETA: I would argue (and hope) that the military and political leaders of Israel still view an attack on Iran as one of last resort (for real) because they are aware of the difficulties it would cause. However, if the PM or the military leadership is truly convinced that the Iran threat is great enough, they will attack.
Steeplejack
@JenJen:
Was also a graphic novel. Very good.
Robert Sneddon
@Lyle4:
What evidence is there that significant electoral fraud actually took place in Iran? Moussavi has loudly proclaimed that fraud happened, but he lost and he’s bound to say that. The Western journalists reporting on the situation are all located in the big cities which are the main source of voters for Moussavi, urban professionals and technocrats, and that’s where the riots seem to be happening. Iran has a mostly-rural population and a lot of non-urbanites voted for Ahmadinejad because he best represented their political and religious beliefs. It didn’t hurt that he was made out to be a brave defender of Iranian rights by the demonising Western press (including some of the Shah’s old retainers who now occupy lucrative slots in various Western media operations). He’s the one that’s been standing up against American and European attempts to sanction Iran, after all.
I will happily accept that there was some fraud, but there is no clear evidence that it was massive enough to actually change the outcome of the election. I do see a rush to judgement on the part of many Western commentators that of course those stupid wogs would screw up when they tried to rig the vote, what do you expect, Chicago style?
The polling pre-election was very irregular and I suspect it failed to sample the rural population properly; a telephone-based poll would likely skew heavily in technocrat Moussavi’s favour, for example. The high turnout (80% plus) is probably the reason the results look lop-sided; as recent American elections have proved, GOTV is the main factor in winning and losing and Ahmadinejad and his supporters are not incompetent idiots in that respect.
JL
Fareed is on CNN talking about Iran.
tim
Randy Andy at the Daily Douche has a bareback hardon for another war, just as he did in the tumescent aftermath of 9-11. Nothing gets his blogging boner going like talk of military action in which people other than himself will do the fighting and dying.
Reading Sullivan’s entries on the current Iran situation is unenlightening bacause the reader gets no corresponding, reliable perspective on the accuracy or veracity of his sources of information/hysteria. We do, however, get a very clear sense of the quivering, vicarious thrill Andrew gets when pretending to know what’s going on in a fast moving political situation half way around the world.
Andy’s credibility is completely shot, or should be, after his performance regarding 9-11, Iraq, and the Bush administration, yet he blogs on with impunity and others like our own John here continue to link to him. This baffles me.
To Andy’s adolescent fanboy cries of “Know Hope!” I say I’m “No Dope!”
JenJen
@Steeplejack: It was just fantastic. I’ve always been fascinated by Persians; of all the countries in the Middle East, I’ve always fantasized about visiting Iran the most, and seeing it with my own eyes.
Anyone watching GPS with Fareed Zakaria? It is so refreshing to see intelligent life really does exist within the MSM on a Sunday! Excellent discussion of Iran right now. One of the commentators says that Ahmahdinnerjacket’s anti-American and Holocaust-denying rhetoric resonates far more in Cairo, Jakarta or Riyadh than in Tehran; that Americans often misunderstand the Iranians, and especially Modern Iran.
JL
@JenJen: Yes, although I did turn it on about 15 minutes after it started. Intelligent life does exist on MSM unfortunately it’s on at 1 pm on Sundays.
Notorious P.A.T.
Sweeeet.
Steeplejack
@JenJen:
Well, we misunderstand everybody else, so why not the Iranians?
The Grand Panjandrum
@gbear: Thanks for the link to that blog. Whoever puts that thing together is very funny. I particularly liked the Drudge Report spoof. Priceless.
omen
@JenJen:
One of the commentators says that Ahmahdinnerjacket’s anti-American and Holocaust-denying rhetoric resonates far more in Cairo, Jakarta or Riyadh than in Tehran
then why is mousavi getting so much support in being given a forum on saudi-owned media if amadinejad is so popular in riyadh?
other middle-east pundits argue sunnis have to more to fear from a nuclear empowered shia hegemony that admadinejad represents. cairo and riyadh consider amad a threat. egypt and saudi arabia are making noises about wanting to get their own nuclear arsenal to counter iran’s.
Notorious P.A.T.
Here’s Mid East expert Juan Cole (gee that sounds familiar) on why Iran’s election results are not credible:
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html
matoko_chan
And the neo-cons and the rest of the crypto-neanderthals on the right are totally not getting the make-up of the Greens….the protesting students are devout muslims.
Green is the color of al-Islam. Hamas uses green headbands also.
Yeh, Im an otaku of Fareed.
He rawks.
60% of the country is under 28 years old.
That is a huge swell of leverage coming down the pike.
Repression will just make resistance stronger.
Demographics rule.
The Grand Panjandrum
@tim:
I think both Cole and Sullivan have admitted to being wrong about the Iraq War. But you will have to provide evidence that Sullivan is cheerleading some sort of war in Iran. Sure he can be breathless in his blogging but I haven’t read anything that is in his words that seems to be inciting violence.
JenJen
@geg6: He says he only heard of Mousavi ten days ago, so that means everybody only heard of Mousavi ten days ago.
That’s really all you need to know to understand where his analysis is coming from. Me, I’ll listen to Fareed Zakaria.
@omen: To be fair, I’m not really sure he did say Riyadh as the third city on that list; I wish I could rewind, because I think I misheard. You’re absolutely right.
Notorious P.A.T.
True. Before then America helped overthrow Mohammed Mossadeh (sp?), Iran’s popular prime minister, which for some reason made Iran mad at us.
matoko_chan
And….so what if the election was fixed?
What are we going to do?
Collude in an assassination and meddle again like we did in Operation Ajax?
Refuse to speak to Iran again like that petulant evangelical bumbler Bush?
Charon
@Robert Sneddon:
The best reasons I’ve seen to suspect massive fraud:
1) The Election Monitoring Commission announced that the results were invalid.
2) The Supreme Leader immediately certified the election results, rather than waiting the legally mandated three days. The wait is so that candidates can lodge protests based on irregularities or fraud.
3) It’s not just that the reform candidates underperformed, but the way in which they did. Karoubi was expected to do well in the west, but his numbers there were the same as in the rest of the country. Plus, the official results suggest that he received far fewer votes than his party has active members. Mousavi is an Azeri, and the Azerbaijan region of Iran has a history of supporting even marginal candidates with which it shares a cultural and a language, but Mousavi’s performance in Azerbaijan closely mirrored his support throughout the rest of the country. Also, with regards to the effect rural vote, Ahmadinejad beat Mousavi in Tabriz, the capital city of Azerbaijan, not just by a plurality but by a fairly large majority. No matter how much the rural vote may have gone for Ahmadinejad, it doesn’t explain results like that.
Finally, I will agree with you that it is entirely plausible that a fair counting of the ballots cast may indeed show an Ahmadinejad plurality, or even a bare majority, but the official count is farcical.
omen
@Notorious P.A.T.:
along the same lines that juan cole brings up:
Ahmadinejad had apparently taken the northwestern city of Tabriz with some ease.
Tabriz is the heart of East Azerbaijan, and Azeris are among the tightest ethnic groups in the country, unfailingly voting along ethnic lines.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2009/06/2009613121740611636.html
retr2327
“Ali-Khameini and his stooge, Ahmadhi-Nejad and the Revolutionary Guards Corps clique are Islamic fascists, who will do anything to hang on to power.”
To me, this has always seemed to be a fundamentally reassuring point: people who will do anything to stay in power are not likely to start wars that end in Armagedon. That’s why I didn’t think going after Saddam was warranted, even if the hype about WMDs was accurate (which, of course, it wasn’t). And weren’t the neocons the ones who were arguing we had to take out Iran because they were so crazy they’d be reckless? The fact that they’re now acting like, and described as, garden-variety tyrants who don’t want to lose their nice gigs is actually a good thing, as far as Israel is concerned.
KG
Evidence of fraud in the election:
1. claims that Ahmadinejad won by similar margins in every province. the statistical probability of that happening is well less than 1%. As an example, imagine Obama winning New York with the same percentage as he were to win North Dakota.
2. reports are that the Interior Ministry – which is the place that counts the votes – has been taken over by the Revolutionary Guard, that employees are not being allowed in the buildings.
3. state run media in Iran has changed the story regarding Ahmadinejad win in Tehran. Yesterday he had won with more than 50% of the vote in the city in a 4 way race. Today, they are telling foreign media that he won, but didn’t break 50%.
4. the result was certified three days before it was suppose to be by the supreme leader. This falls into the category of “nothing to see here, move along”
5. the foreign media is being forced out, the local media is on lock down, and cell phones and internet websites have been shut down in Iran.
in short, these are not things that happen after a free and fair election.
Charon
Clearly it was the always insane Daniel Pipes.
omen
@JenJen:
sorry jenjen, i haven’t seen the program yet. he could be right. i forgot to differentiate between the arab street and the rulers. they are often not on the same page.
Brachiator
@stickler:
Good points, but I would never underestimate the Israeli government and military, especially if they truly felt threatened. Conservatives make a big deal about the Iranians developing nukes, but it is foolish to assume that Israel is passively accepting the idea that their security must necessarily depend upon US policy or military assistance.
On the other hand, the critical weakness in neocon and Israeli hardliner thinking is that a military strike against Iran will significantly protect Israel.
As another poster noted, the Muslim country that definitely has nukes is not Iran.
The success of Islamic militants in Pakistan is a wild card that increases the possibility of a wider regional conflict should Israel attack Iran.
[JenJen – Apropos of the situation in Iran, I have to recommend a truly excellent animated film, about one young girl’s account of the Iranian Revolution, “Persepolis.”]
The film and the two graphic novels on which the film is based, is an essential, easily digestible, and amazing depiction of Iranian culture. There may still be a deluxe edition of the DVD available through amazon and other retailers that includes both graphic novels in one amazing bundle.
Wikipedia contains a good summary of the film, international reaction to it, and good links to reviews and interviews.
Ked
…I just wrote a long rant about the people in this thread who are arguing the “not a coup” perspective, but it was insulting and I know I don’t flame well enough to make it worth starting a comment war.
Look, you have you opinion, and there has even been a good point or two made, but:
1) The sequence of events as (admittedly poorly) documented so far.
2) The way the proper procedures set forth in Iranian law, which have always been followed before, have been completely ignored.
3) The bits of (admittedly unsubstantiated) eyewitness testimony that have filtered out of the Iranian Interior Ministry.
4) The complete break from all previous statistical trends in the announced numbers, and the absurdly low totals given to the third and fourth place candidates.
5) The statements coming from Khameni and Ahmedinejad (every time I try to spell that it comes out different) which appear to be totally disconnected from all other reality.
6) The technological and police measures taken to cut off communication in Tehran.
All of these together are convincing to me. Could this be some sort of wild disinformation campaign coming from a bad loser? It’s not impossible, but it seems to be to be a very low, less than five percent, probability.
What can we do about it? As a country, almost nothing. As individuals interacting in the international internet community, collectively doing what we can to drive the media narrative and to facilitate communications from people on the ground in Iran is important.
Will my blog comments save the world, overthrow the coup, prevent a protestor in the Iranian street from getting beaten into a bloody pulp? Of course not. But a greater blogosphere that reinforces and supports rule of law, reform efforts, and denies Ahmedinapoopyhead any shred of legitimacy, yes, that could mean something.
JenJen
This just in from the Dept. of Irony:
Through intimidation, violence, manipulation, and outright fraud, the Iranian regime has once again made a mockery of democracy, and confirmed its repressive and dictatorial character.
We as Americans have a responsibility to stand in solidarity with people when they are denied their rights by repressive regimes. When elections are stolen, our government should protest. When peaceful demonstrators are beaten and silenced, we have a duty to raise our voices on their behalf. We must tell the Iranian people that we are on their side.
– Joe Lieberman
Zach
@omen: So much for ridicule not occurring here.
1. This is a thread that’s about Andrew Sullivan; who do you think I’m talking about?
2. I don’t see how pointing out that the protests are relatively small, saying they’re inspiring, and worrying about tragedy at the hands of a ruthless government putting down a rebellion is dickish.
@geg6 – the one in Iran didn’t succeed until after the deaths of hundreds of students. Things didn’t turn out well in Iran in ’81. I’m skeptical that the uprising is as popular as many are taking it to be. I don’t see many important people sharing that skepticism; hopefully they’re right to be certain.
Zuzu's Petals
@JenJen:
I second (third?) that recommendation. Excellent film.
Notorious P.A.T.
I hope not. What I would like is for an international consensus to form that the election was not legitimate, then go from there.
Daniel “Crack” Pipes, as some have dubbed him.
Man, this just gets more suspicious with each report.
matoko_chan
Also, blogosphere coverage is good.
Iran has a higher percentage of bloggers in the pop than any country in the world.
Questions about the validity and data and pictures.
Not rightwing zionist and neo-con extremist crap though.
Even Iranian students resent Israel.
Zuzu's Petals
Geeze, I hope Jason Jones is okay.
Charon
@JenJen:
To go along with the irony of Lieberman’s comment, it may also risk the protesters that he says he is trying to protect. Several dissidents and Iran specialists have already publicly stated that the one thing that would guarantee that Ahmadinejad gets the vast majority of his country, including a lot of the clerics who are currently protesting the vote totals, to back him to the hilt would be any appearance that the reformers are supported by the U.S.
P.S. — If anyone can identify why this comment got held for moderation I would appreciate it. Thanks.
omen
@Zach:
what the…
you brazenly accuse us of fomenting a massacre and then act the wounded flower when called out on it.
Zach
@JenJen
My point is that neither I nor many people coming to conclusions and criticizing others for not doing the same had this much knowledge about Iranian election law, election history, or ethnic geography before Friday. It’s too early to argue to authority, and I’m definitely not claiming that I’m one. How many were pointing to Andrew Sullivan’s graph as definitive proof yesterday? How do people go from zero to dead certain in a few hours? Is it based on evidence from the past few days or influenced by underlying assumptions about Iran?
I hope the protesters represent the 40 million or so that Mousavi claims. More power to them.
Midnight Marauder
@Zach:
I would like to then direct your attention to the mass resignations of 120 faculty members at Sharif University.
Not to mention that it’s obviously spread from just occurring in Tehran to great deal of other cities. As well as the leaked (alleged) actual results that show Mousavi winning:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/the-real-results.html
But that’s from Sullivan, so it probably trash anyway, right?
Besides, you don’t send the Guard to hijack the newspapers and TV stations if you don’t have a fear of the uprising.
Peter J
If Al Qaeda held an election, Pipes would be rooting for Osama bin Laden to stay in power.
J. Michael Neal
@Zach:
Azeris have consistently voted for one of their own, including in 2005. In that election, Ahmedinajed ran, but they preferred to vote for minor candidate. The idea that Ahmedinajed won 2/3 of the vote there is not credible.
Note that wasn’t limited to just the Azeri region. Mehdi Karoubi got crushed in his home area as well, which is also historically unusual; he did very well there in 2005.
They were never particularly fond of him, no. In 2005, he did better in the working class areas, but it was never his strength. In the midst of an economic crisis that has hit the urban working class hard, it seems unlikely that they would break more heavily for the incumbent than they did in the past.
Speak for yourself. I do follow Iran fairly closely.
Zach
@omen: I’m sorry that I gave that impression. I should’ve been more clear. I didn’t mean to talk about folks here.
Midnight Marauder
@Zach:
Yes.
This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.
JenJen
@Charon: Oh, that is exactly right. I didn’t paste Lieberman’s full quote, but he goes on to practically demand that President Obama speak out on behalf of the protesters in Iran. But of course, it seems obvious to most thinking people that empty rhetoric from American leaders would only serve to harden Ahmedinijad’s support.
I don’t see any point or any value in the President saying anything other than that he is watching the situation closely. Of course, I fully expect that the Limbaugh Party is about to have a hissy fit over Obama’s silence.
Mike in NC
Fixed for accuracy.
JenJen
@Zach: You’ve come to a place where, actually, many of us knew an awful lot about Iran’s ethnic geography and “election” history before last Friday. Iran didn’t just pop onto the map, you know; we as Americans have a long and at times quite sordid history with that nation, and region. People here are well-informed when it comes to global politics. And many of us here have been following the Iranian election for weeks now.
Can you at least concede that just because you only recently stumbled upon the news of the Iranian election, that doesn’t mean the same is true of just about everybody discussing the current situation?
Zach
@J. Michael Neal: Thanks for the info, and I don’t mean to speak for anyone on this. I agree that a lot of things seem inconsistent. Looking at the history of Iranian presidential elections, it doesn’t seem like there’s much to go on in terms of expectations here outside of the 2005 election; everything else looks like the fix was basically in from the beginning. Ahmedenijad’s total isn’t out of line with previous margins of victory for incumbents, but there isn’t any good comparison to make. It would be really useful to have data for the results of past elections by province along with the data for this election. Is that available anywhere?
Brachiator
@Midnight Marauder:
Excellent point. And the NY Times is reporting on how the government has shut down communication to attempt to stifle any awareness of protests (Landslide or Fraud? The Debate Online Over Iran’s Election Results).
And of course, there was absolutely no coverage of protests on Iranian media, so people who might be sympathetic to the opposition have no way of knowing that their support is needed.
4jkb4ia
The NYT forgot to tell us that Khamenei has disliked Moussavi for 30 years. If you don’t have that information, it is very frightening that Khamenei & Co. prefer Ahmedinejad with all of his incitement and relative incompetence. That would mean that the source of real power in Iran could care less about engaging the rest of the world or meeting them halfway. And in that case, there may not be enough progress made within the next year that Obama does not wash his hands of them.
Haven’t been online since Thursday, so congratulations, John. You did it. Marian Hossa looks like a big fool. It was great to see the expression on Fleury’s face.
wilfred
I watched 4 of the debates on Press TV. In the one between Ahmadinijad and Mousavi, Mousavi came off like an asshole – pushy, insulting and rude. Hardly statesmanlike or whatever he is being touted as, let alone a likely winner. He attacked Ahmedinijad from the moment it started.
Fraud? It’s the fucking East. Improbable margin? Sure. Improbable result? No.
Mousavi was widely seen in the region as the most Westerncentric candidate. Of the 4 candidates he was the farthest removed from the man in the street revolutionary. Most of the people I speak to thought there was a lot of interference in the election – everybody was buzzing with the tons of money that the Saudis had thrown into Lebanon and were now pumping into Mousavi – if he wins, they said, cui bono? Apart from the forces of FREEDOM, naturally.
The frame was set immediately, with Mousavi the standard bearer of FREEDOM, and Ahmadinijad the man who out to destroy the world.
Give me a fucking break.
tc125231
@Death By Mosquito Truck:
wilfred
Israeli agit-prop. Soon to be everywhere.
tc125231
@stickler:
Well said.
Texas Dem
As much as it pains me to agree with Hewitt or Krauthammer, they’re right about the immediate effects of the so-called “election” in Iran. An Israeli attack is now a virtual certainty. Count on it.
Midnight Marauder
@wilfred:
Why are you even bothering? You have no credibility here and no one respects your “contributions.”
You and BOB. Just stop.
bago
Life imitates Art. I don’t know who this Iranian kid is, but he deserves a massive win.
JenJen
@bago: Nice!!
J. Michael Neal
No, there isn’t. He needed to go to a run-off in 2005 after getting 19% of the vote in the first round, and there were suspicions about even that. Mohammed Khatami won in landslides in 1997 and 2001, but he was a reformist candidate and there was massive turnout both times; if anything, those elections, combined with the fact that turnout was even larger on Friday, cast more suspicion on Ahmedinejad’s re-election rather than bolster its legitimacy. Prior to 1997, there was never more than one serious candidate running. Rafsanjani won election by stomping on nobodies.
I have not found an English language source for the actual numbers. However, I have found several sources, not just Juan Cole, describing that there has tended to be a strong ethnic element to presidential voting. Ethnic minorities have also tended to vote very heavily for reform candidates in the past. This shouldn’t be surprising, given the nature of the discourse in Iranian politics. The hardliners, like Ahmedinejad, implement policies of suppression of ethnic national identities, including a ban on teaching their languages in schools. To believe that Azeris switched to Ahmedinnejad from their previous opposition to him, we would have to believe that they preferred an incumbent who has presided over economic failure while also subjugating their culture to a reformer of their own culture who campaigned on allowing greater cultural freedom, including allowing their children to be taught their own language in school. This is even harder to believe in the case of the Lurs voting for Ahmedinejad, since not only is all of the above true, but they had a chance to vote for the same guy in 2005, and did so in large numbers.
There are also all of the procedural oddities that commenters above have noted. While I agree that nothing has been proven, the reasons to be skeptical of the official numbers far outweigh the reasons to believe them.
Keep in mind that the elections are already distinctly unfree, since the Council of Guardians must approve all candidates for public office. There were a lot of candidates who registered that are more reformist than Mussavi, sometimes much more reformist. They were all stricken from the ballot. Thus, there is a significant chunk of the Iranian population that doesn’t have anyone representing their views to vote for. This is why high turnout favors reform candidates: it means that there are a lot of voters going to the polls who might normally stay home because they don’t like any of the choices. This is what happened in 2005; the Council of Guardians gutted all of Khatami’s attempts at reform, so they all decided that there was no point in voting.
This is why the polling for this election was so goofy. It was assumed, for some very good reasons, that those who were disillusioned in 2005 were still disillusioned now. So, the polls were based upon a very narrow definition of who was likely to vote. Among the set of people considered, Ahmedinejad was the clear and decisive leader. It was only after the Mussavi campaign caught fire and energized those people that things began to change. With 85% turnout, which is what was reported, I really don’t think that an Ahmedinejad victory is plausible, even without all of the other discrepancies.
burnspbesq
@JenJen:
Jeebus H. Magoo on a Vespa. I’ve eaten donuts that are smarter than Joe Lieberman.
Allan
When your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.
Allan
@Allan: I’m going to exercise the somewhat uncommon perogative of editing my own post to fix it, but upon reflection I have decided it would be more accurately stated as follows:
Fixed.
Brachiator
@J. Michael Neal:
Great point. BBC News has a great page dedicated to explaining how the Iranian government works (Guide: How Iran is ruled).
Here is a bit on the Council of Guardians;
“This is the most influential body in Iran and is currently controlled by conservatives. It consists of six theologians appointed by the Supreme Leader and six jurists nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament….
The council can also bar candidates from standing in elections to parliament, the presidency and the Assembly of Experts.
Reformist attempts to reduce the council’s vetting powers have proved unsuccessful and the council banned all but six of more than 1,000 hopefuls in the 2005 elections.
Two more, both reformists, were permitted to stand after the Supreme Leader intervened. All the female candidates were blocked from standing.”
Wile E. Quixote
I’m trying to figure out how Israel attacks Iran without flying over:
Syria and Iraq, and Iraq is American owned airspace
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
I guess that the neo-con wetdream is that the US allows Israel to overfly Iraq on their way to Iran, maybe even providing intel and aerial refueling and then the US eats all of the shit that this causes in Iraq.
Yutsano
Even then they still have to go over Jordan, and yeah that’ll fly. (Pun intended.)
Anne Laurie
Beltane: I LOLed. Then I wept.
Brachiator
@Wile E. Quixote:
Missiles.
Sadly, the neo-con wet dream welcomes a regional war in the Middle East.
LD50
No matter how many little pieces of bullshit you accumulate, they’ll never just add up to the truth.
LD50
For all the ways in which Obama is disappointing us DFH’s, you have to admit this is a big fat fucking difference between him and Grampa McCain.
Yutsano
I’ll take every single fucking moment of the aggravation too. Obama can’t change 30 years of destructive policy overnight, and if he tried it would backfire and bad. It’s a hugely testing time to try and get the damage undone, but I’ll credit him for at least trying to get a few things right.
sab
Ld50
Of course Netanyahu writes English well. He lived and sold furniture in Brooklyn for years before he went home to Israel. I lived in Israel briefly during his last administration (during the 1st Gulf war) and the joke in Israel was that he was so Americanized that Israeli cabinet meetings had to be held in English not Hebrew so that Netanyahu and his American (Republican) handlers could understand what was going on.
Comrade Darkness
no choice but to act in the defense of the survival of the Jewish people
hm… my XX-Paranoid Tin-Foil Hat suddenly sees a strange connection between the international recreation of the Jewish state ONLY after the invention of the thermo-nuclear warhead.
Zach
@KG:
This isn’t what I’m seeing in the reported results. Obviously it’s an issue that there aren’t any reliable reported results that are backed by the government (reliable in that they match the official Iranian totals; not in that they’re accurate). I also agree that debating whether an election in Iran is fair is somewhat absurd; the question is whether it was stolen within the existing rules. Banning texts and the Internet is not surprising, but it’s explicable as an act by a repressive regime to forestall rebellion as much as an attempt to hide election fraud.
Anyway, since we’re talking about the Obama comparison here, let’s look at the standard error of the margins of victory and the “winner’s” vote share for all states/provinces:
Average State/Province Winner % (SE)
Obama – 50.54 (1.34)
Ahmadinejad – 65.77 (1.72)
Average State/Province Margin of Victory over next closest rival % (SE)
Obama – 2.48 (2.68)
Ahmadinejad – 33.93 (3.43)
There’s less regional variation in Obama’s win than in Ahmadinejad’s “win” by my reckoning. If you look at the actual numbers, or what folks have been able to find, your New York / North Dakota claim simply doesn’t show up in the results. Given that this a major point in Juan Cole’s proof of fraud (maybe variation was lower than past elections in Iran, but it’s certainly not low and Ahmadinejad’s total between provinces isn’t “fairly standard”), it’s probably worth wondering where the numbers came from that originally led to these conclusions.