I know it’s still baseball season and all, but Football Outsiders just came out with their 2009 Guide (12 bucks for the pdf). Football Outsiders uses all kinds of fancy Nate Silver-style stats to make predictions about football. I haven’t figured out what all the stats are yet, but it’s a good read, with lots of detail on every team and every starting skill position player.
I’m a Patriots fan and a Colts-hater, primarily, and at first glance it appeared that FO had rated them the top two teams in the NFL, projecting 11.4 wins for the Pats and 11.5 for the Colts. They project only 9.6 for the Steelers and, get this, 5.6 for the Cardinals. (I know, you can’t land on a fraction, but this is dialectics, very simple dialectics.) Then I came across this: a projection of 12.5 wins for the Chargers and the following bold statement.
The San Diego Chargers are the prohibitive favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV. Our 2009 statistical projection for the Chargers is so off the charts that it may endanger the boundaries of reality.
In the six years that Football Outsiders has been doing preseason team projections, only one team has had a projection this impressive: the 2007 New England Patriots. In fact, this year’s Chargers enter the season looking even stronger than the Patriots did two years ago.
Although I believe that everything in California south of LA is a right-wing hell-hole, I’ve always liked the Chargers, mostly because I liked Air Coryell and Dan Fouts and John Jefferson and Kellen Winslow back in the day.
AhabTRuler
Norv Turner will always choke.
Patrick
I also liked the Coryell era Chargers, but before that I liked Lance Alworth and the cool lightning bolt helmets. And Flutie got to play a bit there too.
PaulW
Games aren’t won or lost by the numbers. You can’t predict weather, injury, fumbles, personnel gambles, and field goal kicks.
The only thing you can predict is: the talking heads covering each game on TV are idiots, so turn the volume down on the tv and turn up the sports radio to cover.
mike the dealer
The year the Colts won the Bowl it should have been the Chargers winning it, but Marty and company gagged away a game Vs a hopelessly out matched Patriots team, clearing the way for the Colts to beat the Patriots at home and get Rex Grossman in the Bowl. I have even less faith in Norv then I did Marty.
DougJ
The only thing you can predict is: the talking heads covering each game on TV are idiots, so turn the volume down on the tv and turn up the sports radio to cover.
You mean the radio coverage of the games or the shows where people call in to ask why the Patriots can’t trade Ellis Hobbs for Julius Peppers?
I agree if you mean the radio coverage of the game. And you know who is a shockingly good radio football guy? Michael Irvin. Never would have guessed it, but he’s very observant.
Andy K
Me too. But I really wish they’d go back to the baby blue home jerseys. Spanos keeps them in the particular dark navy blue because its the same blue as the Greek flag. Not a good enough reason, imo, to keep the NFL’s best lookling unis on the shelf.
BTW, if Rivers and/or Merriman get injured, they struggle to make the playoffs.
The Pale Scot
the AFC is filled with nothing but dick smoking pansies, except for the Steelers, the Pats get 6 practice games every year playing Jets, Bills and the ‘phins,, and usually the Bengals, Browns and Raiders also. it will be a team from the NFC East that wins the bowl, unless they they beat each other into the hospital ward like what happened last year and let the Steelers get a patsy to play. Playing a AFC schedule is like a college 8 game run.
go Big Blue!
Dave C
Hey buddy, I happen to reside–happily so, in fact–in that “right wing hell-hole.” I may not enjoy the politics here, but this place is generally quite pleasant.
Actually, now that I think about it, SD really is hell on earth. Terrible, terrible place. You should definitely not move here. In fact, you probably shouldn’t even come visit.
Andy K
@DougJ:
Check out Sirius NFL if you ever get a chance. Low ratio of idiot callers there. Still have to put up with Randy Cross, though.
Max
@The Pale Scot: Ummm… as a lifelong, diehard, Buffalo Bills fan, I take offense to the “dick smoking pansies” generalization.
I knew football season was almost upon us when I got my Direct TV bill and noticed the NFL Sunday Ticket charge.
I am really looking forward to seeing what the TO dynamic does to my beloved Bills.
Jack T.
@AhabTRuler:
We gotta get you a bullhorn.
drillfork
I’ve heard Irvin in radio interviews and have actually found him knowledgeable and likable. I guess on TV he feels compelled to play the buffoon.
I sure hope Football Outsiders is right. If the Chargers are better than the ’07 Patriots, that means they’ll win the last game. And nothing would make me happier than seeing a 19-0 team stifle the pathetic old men of the ’72 Miami Dolphins. Never want to hear from those ass-clowns again…
br
I can’t believe Football Outsiders can get away with charging 12 bucks for their voodoo stats bullshit. Sheesh. Why did you pay for that Doug?
Ash
I’ll eat a live scorpion if any of that comes even close to how the season plays out.
DougJ
Why did you pay for that Doug?
They featured snippets of it on the Globe Pats blog and it sounded interesting. I like it so far. We’ll see how the predictions pan out.
robertdsc
Funny, I don’t see Peyton doing so well without his multiple security blankets. Then again, he’d had them so long and only won once, so he’s shit either way.
/Peyton hater
Napoleon
I saw Kellen Winslow get inducted into the football hall of fame which was the same year as Steve Largent (I went to see Largent). The crowd got a left wing political type speech from WInslow and a right wing one from Largent.
I always liked the Chargers (pretty much any original AFL team but the Raiders).
Linkmeister
There’s a nice story in the July 13 issue of SI about the inception of the AFL, including a squib about Lance “Bambi” Alworth and another about Daryle Lamonica.
Linkmeister
Oh man, Kellen Winslow. That playoff game where he caught about 20 passes and needed oxygen.
Memories, memories.
JeffH
Football Outsiders is affiliated with Baseball Prospectus, which is where Nate Silver did his baseball work. So yeah, calling the stats “Nate Silver-style” is probably appropriate. I don’t think Nate ever did any work with FO though.
Mike
Michael Irvin sucks on the radio. Fake Michael Irvin, on the other hand, is wonderful.
Patrick
“I am really looking forward to seeing what the TO dynamic does to my beloved Bills.”
That won’t last.
John Cole
Is is this a “suicide by cop:” style GBCW post? You want to quit bloggin, but don’t know how, so you keep writing stuff like this until I am forced to do something?
That is what this is, right?
Jay B.
@The Pale Scot:
There was a good NFC East team last year?
Incertus
I don’t really need to spend twelve bucks to have these folks tell me the Saints are going to be exciting yet disappointing again, do I?
The Pale Scot
Pardon me Max, I spent the morning reading football blogs, and really it was mostly directed at the Pats; I respected Bellichick as a coach until all the cheating stuff came out, compounded by his complete inability to act like a gentlemen. You know you lost a GAME, you didn’t lose your capitol city, industrial production and food growing areas to the Mongols, get some perspective, and the way it seems to bleed over to his players is a shame. It’s not like they’re in ‘Ghan get shot at for 5 bucks a month.
arguingwithsignposts
@John Cole:
seriously. who is a patriot fan? i am a recovering cowboys fan (loved the steelers win last yr though), and even I can’t stand the pats (esp. tom brady).
The Grand Panjandrum
Football is for sissies. Any punk can play a sport where all the players wear what amounts to full body armor. Wrestling is a Real Man’s Sport … no pads … just brute strength … all the cool moves and the great fans make it the most exciting sport evah! Long live the WWE! Real sports for Real Men! (Just think of all the cute chicks you can pick up at a match. Some of them even have a tooth left.) God Bless America.
The Pale Scot
& Max, I was a big ‘Phin fan before my father indoctrinated me into the hell that is being a Giant fan. Back in the day Czonka ran for 6 yards and they had to carry 3 Jets off the field, Hellya!
“Conan!, What is good in Football?!
Daa…. to run between the tackles,
To drive the linebackers before you,
And to hear the lamentations of the cheerleaders.”
Anton Sirius
@Andy K:
Unlike all those other contenders who can easily survive the loss of their starting QB and/or best defensive player…
KG
I live in Orange County, it’s really quite nice here. San Diego is beautiful, so I guess what I’m saying is: fuck you too.
Max
@The Pale Scot: I’m with you. I hate the Patriots and would love to see someone take out Brady’s knee again.
I”m of the mind that AFC is REAL football. NFC = not so much.
Andy K
@Anton Sirius:
Was kinda obvious, huh?
The Pale Scot
Wrestling? Wrestling?!, You wanna seem some fightin’ go the the Felt Forum to watch the Golden Gloves series.
Notorious P.A.T.
How many wins for the Lions? -3.2?
Punchy
Chargers prohib favs, eh? Somebody needs to tell Vegas. I see them at 10-1, similar to a rash of others.
And then there’s the Lions. 100-1, but really should be at least 500-1.
Andy K
@Andy K:
Allow me to finish the thought, if you will…
They should have won the AFC West easily last year, even after losing Merriman. And while the defense wasn’t good, they struggled on offense, too, even though they were healthy on that side of the ball (yeah, LT was dinged, but why not use Sproles more, Norv?).
That division should be just as weak this year as it was last year, and even if they remain healthy I still see them struggling to separate from the pack.
Zach
The Chargers are my new second-favorite NFL team (live in Baltimores, so Ravens are a given b/c of Ed Reed being awesome) because I played Darren Sproles in football when I was in middle school in Kansas City (as an aside, I’ve never liked the Chiefs because the city’s fans are horrible and, at the time, Marty Schottenheimer was repulsive). “Played” is probably the wrong word. In actuality, I chased him from sideline to sideline for no reason for two hours while my coached heaped profanity upon profanity that Sproles weighed too little to be in the “heavy” league (which was true for me, too, but that wasn’t of much consequence). According to an article I dug up from his time at Kansas State (and can’t find now), our league later banned him from running outside the tackles and then from running at all after a certain number of touchdowns. His dad pulled him and sent to play in Raytown after that.
The Pale Scot
Sorry Max AFC = shotgun, spread formations, 3-4 Defenses and dime packages, NFC = 2 tight end formations, 4-3 defenses and counter-tray inside the tackles running. At least here in the East, the other teams are the those poor relations we don’t like to talk about.
asiangrrlMN
Go Vikings! Hey, it’s the only time I’ll be able to root for them with any enthusiasm, especially if they sign Favre.
As for baby blue unis, uh, no. I know that I am in the minority on this one, but there is no baby blue (or pink) in sports!
Comrade Kevin
@Max:
You shouldn’t be.
DecidedFenceSitter
I am a Redskins fan, which means I watch the first six games or so, wince, and then wait to watch the playoffs. :)
Joe Lisboa
Mind sharing what they say re: my long-suffering Lions?
Incertus
@DecidedFenceSitter: Just like a Saints fan. I think you left out the end of the season mini-rally to get within shouting distance of the final wild card spot, only to falter, though.
Bob In Pacifica
Football Outsiders, from what I’ve seen, is interesting but very far from making accurate predictions. How many wins did they pick for the Cardinals last year? And did they predict Tom Brady’s knee?
They weren’t really positive about the Niners this year, nobody seems to be, so I’m not all copacetic with them to begin with.
But that’s the problem with their predictions and predictions generally. Every year about a half-dozen new teams make the playoffs and and another half-dozen fall from the playoffs. Sometimes it’s injuries, but often it’s players who begin clicking together, some surprise players, some surprise improvement in coaching that no one saw coming. Mediocre teams move from seven wins to ten wins and are suddenly playoff teams. Ten-win teams lose a left tackle or a quarterback and suddenly are a six-win team.
Outfits like FO provide lots of interesting reading but aside from predicting that the Pats will be good and the Lions will suck you can save your twelve bucks and buy a pair of dice.
That’s my opinion.
Redshirt
There are some Patriots fans left. They live mostly in New England. I’m one of them! I think they’re going to do quite well this year.
Chargers, eh? I have two Fantasy Football gambits I am willing to share, since I know none of my league reads this blog:
1. Obtain a QB and WR from the same team. Ideally both are very good. This gives you double points anytime they connect. Risky of course, but with rewards.
2. If you have information like this, about the Chargers, and are feeling bold, draft heavily from that team. Even backup players. Also risky, but you often have to take risks to win.
That said, I do not and cannot trust Norv, nor Philip Rivers. He’s a punk.
Bob In Pacifica
DougJ, hold onto your copy of Football Outsiders so that we can review it next February.
Karatist Preacher
I don’t get why Pats fans hate the Colts so much.
Crashman06
Another Pats fan here. I got your back DougJ. Ignore the haters.
lotus
Random Sports, eh? Well, Spitzer’s hooker say he wasn’t her only guvnah client.
So which states had, in 2006,
(a) a capital or quasi-capital city where a Noo Yawk madam would have already established a branch office?
(b) a “quite prominent in her own right” first lady?
I can think of Ahnuld and Ed Rendell (wife’s a federal judge), but thass it.
lotus
@lotus:
Gibbons of Nevada? Is his wife “prominent”?
Keith G
Luckily, I prefer the college game to the pros. “Luckily” because I live in Houston and….well…we suck.
Steeplejack
Nothing to add to this thread. I was a big Atlanta fan for years, suffered through the era when Jerry Glanville would get them to “the end-of-season mini-rally to get within shouting distance of the [playoffs], only to falter,” as Incertus said about the current Saints, suffered through their loss to the Broncos in their only Super Bowl appearance in ’99, then had my spirit crushed when the once-in-a-generation potential of Michael Vick went up in smoke. O, the humanity!
Okay, I did have something to add to this thread–the bitter salt of my tears.
Now I live in the land of the Redskins. Meh.
Edit: At least the Braves are pummeling the Mets tonight on ESPN.
Charity
Anything about the Eagles?
mcd410x
Amen.
Here’s to the days before the league made so much money that coaches became completely risk-averse. QBs calling their own plays? Hogwash. And get off my lawn.
Also.
MarkusB
I liked Air Coryell and Dan Fouts and John Jefferson and Kellen Winslow back in the day.
Me, too. Also.
Bill H
I do indeed suggest all of you stay out of this hellhole that is south of LA. Unless you want to come spend some money.
Chargers have great talent. They also have a serious problem with individualism. Everybody “has his own sack dance” and plays for individual statistics and recognition. Therein lies the downfall; they cannot put forth a winning team effort at crunch time. So far this year I have seen no sign of that changing.
JMG
I am a former sportswriter who covered the NFL for over 25 years. That’s not a credential for expertise, just a statement of fact. I am a middle class American who would right now bet my house, car, and children that the San Diego Chargers do not lay a finger on the Lombardi Trophy unless they steal it.
The Steelers play an easier schedule in 2009, but win fewer games with the same team? OK. Also, how did that 2007 Pats prediction turn out.
PS: I have no animus to the Chargers or any team. They’re all just the same guys in different-colored underwear.
r€nato
I’m sorry.
Svensker
@The Pale Scot:
Hey! I said, hey! I’m talking to you. Don’t be talking about the Jets that way. They may be lousy, but they ain’t dick smokers and they ain’t pansies.
Ever notice how “Patsies” and “pansies” are very close, spelling wise? Huh? Yeah? Yeah!
I hope Bellycheats chokes on his smelly sweatshirt. And that Tom Brady, well, Tom Brady…..well, something bad. Mumble mumble.
Big poopie head.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@The Grand Panjandrum: that documentary “The Wrestler” was awesome. I couldn’t believe how tough those guys were…
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@Karatist Preacher: they hate the Colts because most people think Peyton Manning is the greatest QB of this generation. Until he won the Super Bowl, Pats fans took that as a real slap at Brady (and themselves). New England fans are the biggest victim psychology people in sports with their “we don’t get respect” stuff. Decades of Sox and Pats will do that to you I guess, which is shocking since they had the Celtics.
The Giants taking them down was great for everyone, since they really would have become insufferable had Pats gone 19-0.
robertdsc
I don’t care about the victimology part, but given Manning’s extensive history of choking and failure, he doesn’t deserve anything close to the fame he has. He’s a good QB, no doubt, but his legacy of failure, in which the SB win is the exception to the rule, stands head and shoulders above any regular season antics he can come up with.
Short Bus Bully
Until they can predict injuries all this is just masturbation by numbers.
Every year is filled with teams that SHOULD win, but the teams that DO win have something else going on and that something is the indefinable that keeps us coming back every year.
Injuries are the key though, and there’s no predictor for that.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@robertdsc: so says the Peyton hater…
If the Colts win another one, he will be greatest, it won’t even be an argument…
We’ll never know if the Pats really cheated, but they won 3 Super Bowls by something like a total of 9 points. Warrants mentioning. The quotes from Weis and some of the players indicate an unfair advantage was had.
gex
Meanwhile, I am on pins and needles waiting until July 30, which is when I find out whether I can even watch the Vikings this year.
And no, this is not a rejection of Brett Favre because he was a Packer. This is a rejection of Brett Favre because for the last 5 years his late year performance has been horrid, he’s specialized in killing playoff games with interceptions or other ill-advised plays, and his end of season will-I-return-will-I-retire drama queen acts will be even more intolerable when he’s part of the home town team.
That the Vikings 1) can actually improve the QB situation by signing Favre and 2) can find money for Favre but aren’t showing an interest in resigning Antoine Winfield tells you all you need to know about their front office.
Yutsano
Nothing to add to this thread. I was a big Atlanta fan for years
Let me be the first to thank you for Patrick Kerney then. GO SEACHICKENS!!!
robertdsc
Montana, Bradshaw, Aikman, and Brady are better. By a mile.
Hell, I’d rather have Eli on my team than Peyton.
Steeplejack
@Yutsano:
Ugh. Thanks for reminding me.
DougJ
This is a rejection of Brett Favre because for the last 5 years his late year performance has been horrid, he’s specialized in killing playoff games with interceptions or other ill-advised plays, and his end of season will-I-return-will-I-retire drama queen acts will be even more intolerable when he’s part of the home town team.
I agree.
Mississippi queen.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@robertdsc: My original statement was of this generation. Most of those you cite, don’t qualify. Aikman, well he had a security blanket unlike almost any other QB in history.
Brady is better in one measure only. Super Bowls won. He played on better teams than most Colts teams and likely had a much better espionage program behind his success.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@robertdsc: PS – Eli is on my team and boy was that great a couple of years ago…
john b
as an nc state guy. i gotta like rivers and his laser eyes. haha.
Bob In Pacifica
But I will say that the Niners will once again return to semi-greatness and win their division this year.
Yutsano
But I will say that the Niners will once again return to semi-greatness and win their division this year.
I want what you’re smoking.
Incertus
@gex:
Meanwhile, I am on pins and needles waiting until July 30, which is when I find out whether I can even watch the Vikings this year.
Speaking of Favre to the Vikings, doesn’t he have a horrible record in that dome? In domes in general? There was one stretch, I would swear, where he had something like 15 interceptions versus 3 TDs in the Metrodome–and this was when the Packers were demonstrably better than the Vikings. Factor in his age and poor decision making, and Favre just might get you a new head coach next year.
KG
@59: it’s much better than LA, it really is.
Common Sense
@drillfork:
I’m no fan of the Chargers, but you are right on about those smug ’72 Phins. Last year’s Detroit Lions would crush that team by 30, 9 games out of 10. What did Czonka weigh, 230? Who would cover Calvin Johnson?
Rick DuPuis
I’ve hated the Patriotes ever since they got that gift playoff win vs Oakland in Jan 02…..aka the tuck rule game…….worst call in the history of pro football.
Blue Neponset
Go Pats!!
Can’t wait to see Pat Patriot on the helmet when they wear the throw back uniforms. They never should have changed to the Elvis logo.
John M
Terry Bradshaw? Terry Bradshaw? You complain about “security blankets,” and then mention Terry Bradshaw? I think the problem with the “security blanket” rationale is that it only accounts for offensive tools. Unquestionably, Manning has had some excellent offensive tools in his day. On the other hand, the defenses the Colts have had during his tenure have been ordinary or worse. Also, I would note that none of the Colts’ offensive players who have gone elsewhere have improved their production. Marcus Pollard? Edgerrin James? Brandon Stokely has to some degree, but that’s about it. Everyone talks about what guys like Marvin Harrison have done for Manning, but no one stops to consider what Manning has done for those guys. Compare Marvin’s 1996-1997 numbers to 1998 to present. And note that no one has signed him.
I’ve thrown many objects at the TV during some of Manning’s playoff stinkers, and I would never disagree that Brady and Montana have been far superior in the postseason. Still, Manning likely will retire with the best QB stats in NFL history, and is one of only 17 QBs (some more than once, but 17 actual quarterbacks) to be Super Bowl MVP. His Super Bowl win was an “exception”? Hell, they’re all exceptions! Montana, Bradshaw, even Brady, have failed to win more often than they won. Only 1 team wins each season. That’s why it’s a big deal.
ricky
I liked Ernie Ladd. He liked Bambi.
crack
FO fetishes the first down too much.
Give me the dude at Advanced NFL Stats.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/
Paul in KY
I’m a Browns fan. We’ve had an interesting off season… Our starting wideout killed a man DWI, etc. etc.
Our new Coach pissed off all our rooks by bus tripping them 500 miles 1 way to his camp to ‘volunteer’ (the coach went by plane).
Probably be a loooonnngg season.