Brian Beutler suggest that Obama’s plan for health care is to, in effect, divide Congress up into obstructionists and reformers and ask the Showboating Six et al. which side they’re on.
Here’s what I wonder: can Obama (or in reality Rahm Emanuel) go to someone like Bayh and tell him that they’ll try to destroy him if he doesn’t get on board? Get him a primary challenger next time around, put the full weight of the DSCC and DNC behind the challenger. Black ball him and his family from any lobbying and think tank gigs as much as possible. I don’t know enough about DC to know if this kind of thing can be done (and frankly, I don’t go for this kind of tough guy talk in general). But this quote from Haley Barbour got me thinking a bit:
He said he also has high regard for Obama’s political team. “They’re tough as nails,” he said. “This the first White House since [Richard] Nixon that K Street is afraid of.”
To what extent can a powerful president push a Senator around? Obviously, this could only be done on the most important votes, not as a matter of course. But occasionally? It certainly seemed like Bush-Rove were able to do something like this from 2002 to 2006. Anyway, I have no idea what the answer is to any of this.
AhabTRuler
Well, given the incumbent’s advantage in elections and the length of Senate terms, most people figure that the senator will be around long after the Prez is gone.
7 more F-22’s, bitchez!
ironranger
I’m surprised a hardass R like Barbour would admit something like that.
Zifnab
Johnson knew how to crack heads, but that was after behind Majority Leader in the Senate for a few years. I’m not doubting Obama can’t pull this kind of weight, but I imagine this is one of those instances in which being a young gun that never finished his first Senate term is going to set him back. And, I mean, he’s got Ted Kennedy on his side. Which is like showing up to a gun fight with a howitzer in your back pocket. But Kennedy isn’t getting any younger or healthier.
But guys like Bayh have a whole lot of political ambition. He was eyeing the White House – and then the VP slot – all through ’07 and ’08. I think this is going to be less about sticks and more about honey. Offering up some sweet cabinet level position or a plum committee seat where Bayh can get lots of camera footage of himself might get traction.
I think Bayh would love to come out of this deal more visible than when he disappeared into obscurity after Biden took the VP nod.
DougJ
I’m surprised a hardass R like Barbour would admit something like that.
Part of Barbour’s shtick is that he’s pretty honest unless he needs to lie.
DougJ
That sounds about right.
robertdsc
Joe Lieberman paid no price for betraying Obama during the campaign. Think Bayh or any other Dem fuckup will pay any price this time around? I think not.
The Grand Panjandrum
Obama’s people control the DNC now. Now how effective they will be as inside political brokers is not yet known, but this is the team that got him elected. He has been under estimated by all of his opponents. Remember this is the guy that beat the Clinton poltical machine–something the vaunted GOP machine never did. That speaks volumes. But I do the jury is out on how effective this crew will be when it comes to governing. If we are still wondering about healthcare reform next summer then we will know the effective campaign team is not quite as effective at governing. Given the daunting tasks the administration was faced with coming into office its really hard to gauge things. They have gotten things done.
1. SCHIP
2. Stimulus bill
3. Auto industry bailout
Agree with them, or not those are some decent accomplishments. But we all know he’s failed miserably because we are back to pre-Wall Street meltdown days when everything was just peachy keen and we were still winning in Iraq and Afghanistan.
ironranger
I was actually wondering if he was lying & for what nefarious reason.
Patrick
This health-care legislation is so fundamental to what a democrat is supposed to be, so important that it is the most essential domestic legislation since the sixties, perhaps since even the thirties, then if an alleged democrat cannot support change that would help millions and even save thousands of lives because of fealty to status quo, then that alleged democrat should be in for as rough a time as Obama and the rest of us can give him.
Some actions define who you are. This is it for real democrats.
General Winfield Stuck
Bayh is highly popular in a red state, that did go to Obama for the first time in many moons, most likely out of desperation of voters. But it is still a wingnut state, and each day is returning to it’s prevailing mindset from being cajoled by wingnut leaders.
Obama’s problem is he can’t prove a negative, or, if he had gone the hands off route and let the big banks and auto industry go under. People hate bailouts, unless it’s for them personally, and are not sophisticated enough to ponder that we’d be up a deep shit creek if O had done nothing and let them go bellyup.
So no, threatening the Bayh’s in the dem party will primary opponents won’t do any good, because the people who voted for him would never elect an out and out liberal. the only way is to convince them that if they scuttle health care reform, or pass a weak bill with no PO, then the many more dem lawmakers in more liberal and centrist states and districts will pay the price in 2010, and maybe 2012. Then Bayh and the other blue dogs will have lost the dem majority and the power they enjoy now.
The only way this is going to happen if it’s done with a 51 vote reconciliation process in the Senate, and soon. Or else, the weak, the scared, and the corrupt congresscritters will get their way with the status quo. Once again.
edit-
lamh31
Sorry this is so OT, but stuff like this really pisses me off.
African American Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr, arrested for breaking and entering…in his own house.
Harvard professor Gates arrested at Cambridge home
Violet
@Patrick:
Yeah. This. I’m sick and tired of status quo being given some kind of exalted status. Things are not working. They need to change. If people like Bayh can’t recognize this, then they need to be challenged. And good.
Jon H
“Here’s what I wonder: can Obama (or in reality Rahm Emanuel) go to someone like Bayh and tell him that they’ll try to destroy him if he doesn’t get on board? ”
I’m inclined to think Bayh would *love* that. It’d make him look ‘independent’ and would be something Bayh could sell to the conservatives in his state.
Obama would probably be better off threatening to hug Bayh close and tight for the next 3 years.
geg6
Any sitting president, especially a very personally popular president who won in a landslide, IS the party. He/she chooses the chairman of the party. He is the chief fundraiser and campaigner. He sets the agenda. And then we have look at the particulars of this particular president. He is probably the best politician and strategist I’ve seen in my lifetime. He has the best political organization the Dems have seen since FDR. He has the most ruthless chief of staff since the Nixon administration. And he is the guy who always seems to bring a .45 to a knife fight. If you were Evan Bayh, would you want to up against that? My take is that the view that Beutler espousing is exactly right. And would be quite effective if that is what they are doing. I actually made this same argument to my SO the other day when he was railing about this very thing. Good to see that I’m not the only who sees this scenario shaping up.
lamh31
Cops said Gates was exhibiting “loud and tumultous” behaviour
Has any seen a pic of Henry Gates?
The man is 60 years old, and apparently walks with a limp.
Seriously, Jack & Jill blog has the mugshot: Henry Louis Gates, mugshot
Yeah, doesn’t he just scream criminal thug to ya’ll!
lamh31
Back on topic.
I just wish Obama would just tell this idiots, that he won’t campaign for them unless they get it together. Even in some of these ConservaDem states, don’t they still need Dem loyalist to come out as well. If Obama threatens to support a challenger, wouldn’t that be enough for the ConsevaDems to get it together. Particularly people like Mary Landrieu. Without Obama running up large numbers of African Americans, young people, and Dem loyalist, Senators like Mary could be toast right???
Mr Furious
@lamh31: He’s a thug alright…that limp is just his excuse for brandishing his fucking cane!
freelancer
JOSH
Forgive my bluntness, and I say this with all due respect, Congressman, but vote yes, or you’re not even going to be on the ballot two years from now.
KATZENMOYER
How do you figure?
JOSH
You’re going to lose in the primary.
KATZENMOYER
There’s no Democrat running against me.
JOSH
Sure there is.
KATZENMOYER
Who?
JOSH
Whomever we pick.
KATZENMOYER
You’re bluffing.
JOSH
[shrugs] Okay. [starts to walk away. Katzenmoyer looks worried.]
KATZENMOYER
I’m in your own party!
JOSH
Doesn’t seem to be doing us much good now, does it?
KATZENMOYER
It’s an incumbent Democrat. You’ll go to the press and endorse a challenger?
JOSH
No sir. We’re going to do it in person. See, you won with fifty-two percent, but the President took your district with fifty-nine. And I think it’s high time we come back
and say thanks. Do you have any idea how much noise Air Force One makes when it lands in Eau Claire, Wisconsin?We’re going to have a party, Congressman. You should come, it’s gonna be great. And when the watermelon’s done, right in town square, right in the band gazebo… You guys got a band gazebo?
KATZENMOYER
Josh…
JOSH
Doesn’t matter, we’ll build one. Right in the band gazebo, that’s where the President is going to drape his arm around the shoulder of some assistant DA we like. And you should have your camera with you. You should get a picture of that. ‘Cause that’s gonna be the moment you’re finished in Democratic politics. President Bartlet’s a good man. He’s got a good heart. He doesn’t hold a grudge. [puts on sunglasses]
That’s what he pays me for. [walks away]
Mr Furious
Obama cannot go after Bayh’s seat, that’d be a threat he can’t back up. Half of this bullshit from Bayh this year reeks of a guy who’s sore he was passed over for Veep, give him something else…
If he persists make his life in D.C. a living hell.
Patrick
I almost wish Obama had picked Bayh for vp (as he was alleged to be considering). He could send him on a world friendship tour or something.
Mr Furious
@freelancer: That’s awesome. They say Josh was modeled after Rahm…
MikeJ
@Mr Furious: And Ari on Entourage is Rahm’s brother.
Napoleon
Obama is a clown, is not a leader, and is incompetent. He has totally lost me and I can not imagine voting for him again. Doug J, any thing a Republican clown like HB says is not worthy of any kind of serious consideration.
Fencedude
Concerned short french dictator is very concerned.
General Winfield Stuck
He’s just rattled about that whole Waterloo dust up.
Johnny B. Guud
To the extent that he remains a popular president, in my opinion. The novelty of the historic 2008 election has worn off, and now Americans want some results. Obama still has tons of political capital, but it’s eroded somewhat since January, as is the case with most new presidents.
In line with yesterday’s post about Carter’s malaise speech, in times of crisis, the people want a president who has more to say than “put on a sweater” or “check your tire gauges”, as sensible as they may be. This kind of advice you can get from your grandparents.
That being said, politicians are around for one reason—to get re-elected. If the Evan Bayhs or the Jim Nelsons of the world see that it’s politically expedient to bail on health care reform because their donors or constituents are leaning on their shoulders, Obama’s pressure won’t matter a whit.
That’s essentially why team Obama is pushing for reform right now, while the polls are high and his influence on passing legislation is (presumably) at a peak.
Litlebritdifrnt
@geg6:
I hope you are right, this is what I have been thinking, and I am hoping you are right. We cannot compromise on this thing, people are dying and businesses are going bankrupt trying to pay for health care. If Rahm has to start sending dead fish to people to get this thing done then so be it.
Brick Oven Bill
The President should just be honest and explain to the American people why public finances can no longer afford to provide for expensive end-of-life care. He would win my respect on this issue.
Rahm made his money in the hedge funds and as a member of the Board of Directors for Fannie-Freddie. Axlerod made $3 million selling his share of the communications company that came up with the word ‘astroturfing’. In reality, I believe that he makes his money selling influence.
Napoleon
@Fencedude:
Dude, I am from Animal Farm. That does not change that Obama (that I gave money to) is just not up to the job.
General Winfield Stuck
@Johnny B. Guud:
Did you mean Ben Nelson’s?
General Winfield Stuck
@Brick Oven Bill:
Yes, but your an idiot troll. Telling people that Granny has to die sooner rather than later is not a winning political argument/
Fencedude
@Napoleon:
Thats nice. Do you want a cookie?
Jim
The political/party structure has changed so much, too– the urban machines are gone, unions are weaker, corporations are stronger. Also, as others have pointed out: Indiana is a Red state, and a lot of people there have bought into the Limbaugh line.
That said, I’m guessing the African-American vote in northern Indiana is what pushed it into the Obama column, and Bayh could use that support himself, if hte R’s take a serious run at him. Obama’s not totally without leverage.
Jim
Yeah, I’m not ready to say these battles are lost, but I think it’d be hard to overstate how different our political landscape would be if the dumbass Dems had gotten behind Ned Lamont.
Litlebritdifrnt
Oh and I forgot, but my Mum is coming to visit for 6 weeks in September, she was shopping for health insurance for that 6 week visit. At one point the quote was 3,000 pounds (I would guess at least $5,000) for six weeks. You want to screw tourism in the US, expect people to pay a ridiculous amount of money just to be insured for a short trip. At one point she said “I am going to come without insurance and if anything happens to me sell my body for parts” she finally got a policy that was 1,100 pounds for six weeks, (translated approximately $2,500) The health insurance industry is not only killing American business, it is killing American tourism, there is no way someone from Europe is going to pay that much for insurance when they can go to Spain or whatever and not have to worry about it at all.
Demo Woman
@lamh31: Boston.com has the police report. Reading between the lines, a white woman saw a black man entering a house. The police man was able to quickly verify his identity but instead of leaving, caused the black man to call the racist white cop a racist. The white cop asked the black man to step outside cuz the “acoustics” in the foyer were not appropriate for a discussion and then, said black man was arrested for being rude.
Yup, no problem with the police tactics.
Anton Sirius
@Napoleon:
Is that MAC lipstick you’re wearing?
demimondian
@Mr Furious: Well, the show is…um…directed by his brother, you know.
Johnny B. Guud
@General Winfield Stuck: Yes…I meant BEN Nelson.
demimondian
@General Winfield Stuck: Not up on your
OrwellBlair today?Tongue of Groucho Marx
If Obama goes soft on health care, the Democrats are fucked. Clinton was elected on a promise to reform health care, and when that went down in flames, so did a lot of Democrats _ notably, the more conservative Democrats.
Considering popular opinion, our current economic crisis, and how politically astute our President is, Obama’s not going to let this fish jump back in the water. On the other hand, Blue Dogs like Bayh will happily let the fish gnaw off the dicks on the way back to the water, as long as the boat isn’t capsized.
Litlebritdifrnt
@General Winfield Stuck:
Strangely enough the story of Obama’s gramma is a case in point, WHY did they do a hip replacement on a woman who was dying of cancer? What she wasn’t in enough pain and adding to that with post operative pain was a good thing? Nope it was money pure and simple, lets milk as much money as we can out of this dying person’s insurance, there is no excuse for doing that type of major surgery on a person whose time was limited due to cancer. None. And don’t give me this “rationing” of services crap, because there is simply no excuse for this behavior, none. If someone is dying of cancer, give them pain meds, leave them the fuck alone, don’t start cutting into them for a symptom that has nothing to do with their cancer.
General Winfield Stuck
@demimondian:
Per usual, I don’t have a clue what your talking about.
I’m up on my Demint today.
Dave
Wiretap and blackmail them, the old fashioned way.
Anne Laurie
What’s the political equivalent of a giant noogie?
Admittedly, all I know about Bayh is that he inherited his nice “safe” seat from his daddy, and he’s never done anything but be a giant pain in the arse to the actual Democrats in Congress. I understand that Indiana is the northernmost state of the modern Confederacy, but it would seem that a do-nothing lifer whose greatest accomplishment was being born to the right father should have some potential opponents ready to run against him in the next primary, given enough encouragement.
Srlsy, I think the Obama administration has reached the stage where they need, in the words of a certain neocon stooge, “to pick up some crappy little [congressman] and throw [him] against the wall”… because the Blue Dogs and other DINOs have entirely forgotten that there used to be penalties attached to supporting Rethugs over their nominal “fellows”. Is Bayh the best choice for an object lesson? Well, he’s doing his best to paint a target on his own back. How does Rahm Emmanuel best punish Bayh in a method so public that the other Blue Dogs decide it’s no longer worth sucking up to the Rethug power base? That’s Emmanuel’s problem to solve, and I hope he’s half as smart and mean as his reputation.
demimondian
@General Winfield Stuck: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Orwell#World_War_II_and_Animal_Farm. Orwell’s real name was Eric Arthur Blair.
Brien Jackson
These questions kind of miss the point, IMO. Can Obama credibly threaten a primary challenge against Evan Bayh? No way in hell. The election is 10 months away, no one’s in the race, there’s no one to Bayh’s left who’s visible enough to mount a campaign against him anyway, and Bayh has a ton of cash. And in Bayh’s particular case, he’s such an entrenched figure, from a political dynasty, that the Republicans don’t even bother to really challenge him, even though it is a red state, so he has no need for DSCC money.
What Bayh does have lots of though is ambition. The man wants to be President, and he’s got a largely safe seat to do what he thinks he needs to do to get there. But at the end of the day, you’re not going anywhere in the national Democratic Party if you oppose healthcare reform, so Bayh probably isn’t a problem. The people you have to worry about are the Nelsons, who aren’t going anywhere up the ladder anyway and may actually find themselves beat in a general election, who therefore are looking to keep themselves attractive for well paying, light workload corporate board jobs down the road. But still, they’re Democrats, and they don’t really want to lose, so they certainly don’t want to get the label of being the guy who killed healthcare reform, which is why the number 60 is so very important, from a political end. And that’s why they’re trying to kill reform by a thousand wrings of the hand, as opposed to overt opposition. If a bill actually gets hammered out and comes up for a vote, it’s going to be very hard for them to vote against cloture.
burnspbesq
Here’s how you get Bayh’s vote.
Michelle Obama invites Susan Bayh to lunch, and at some point asks her, “do you really want to have to take your boys out of Sidwell and send them to Lawrence North High School? And do you really want to go back to practicing law in Indianapolis?”
Turgidson
Fucking grandstanding assholes, the lot of them.
Do these conservatard Democrats really think there’s something to be gained by sandbagging health care reform? WTF is their problem? The public hates the GOP. Why do they think siding with them on the biggest issue of the day is a good idea?
Or, alternatively, how did this country manage to elect so many functional retards to the Congress?
Brien Jackson
” I understand that Indiana is the northernmost state of the modern Confederacy, but it would seem that a do-nothing lifer whose greatest accomplishment was being born to the right father should have some potential opponents ready to run against him in the next primary, given enough encouragement.”
Where are you getting a Democratic bench in Indiana? And why would a member of the House want to mount a probably quixotic primary challenge for a race they probably couldn’t win in November?
General Winfield Stuck
@Litlebritdifrnt:
My remark was more about the politics of any politician promoting rationing end of life care. Though your analysis makes sense, at least for you, others have a different take. I would think that Obama’s grandma ok’d the surgery or it wouldn’t have happened,
It is by and large the culture of this country that if people want to use medical science to squeeze out a few more days or months of life, then we do it. The fact that doctors and hospitals profit from it, though insurance companies don’t, is secondary. This is why NO politician is going to touch that rail of health care policy. It would be political suicide.
Mr Furious
@Anne Laurie: I’d LOVE to see it, Anne.
demimondian
@Brien Jackson:
Monroe County. Indianapolis County. Gary. South Bend.
The bench is a lot deeper than you think. No, the candidate won’t win the general, but he or she can turn Evan Bayh into mulch.
matoko_chan
Dig Nate.
Mebbe O can turn the gang o’ six by incorporating some of Wyden’s Healthy Americans Act.
Or mebbe O is doing his usual machiavellian pragmatist thang and biding his time until Congress gets back from summer recess.
General Winfield Stuck
@demimondian:
Whatever dude. I was referring the short dictator, not the Stalinist Piggy/
Brien Jackson
“The bench is a lot deeper than you think. No, the candidate won’t win the general, but he or she can turn Evan Bayh into mulch.”
A) Who?
B) They’re not going to get near Bayh.
General Winfield Stuck
@demimondian:
There’s some solid thinking for keeping the Senate Majority.
Mr Furious
@General Winfield Stuck:
I’d give up a seat to scare the rest of the fucking DINOs into line.
Anne Laurie
There isn’t a single downrent, inner-city, possibly not-white Democratic representative who wouldn’t take a shot at unseating a man generally described as “Mitt Romney, but with less charisma”? Even if the New Guy “inevitably” lost to a Republican in the general election, getting the money & media love to crush a perennial “well known vice presidential hopeful” is a big status (read: future fund-raising) boost to some local hopeful. There is no shortage of healthy egos in most political districts, and I suspect the well-funded administration of a new & popular president would be able to find a worthy challenger even at this late date.
burnspbesq
@General Winfield Stuck:
Actually, it is solid thinking – if you believe the Dems are going to have a net pickup of 3-5 seats in 2010 (with a best-case scenario of 7 or 8).
freelancer
Gen. Stuck, sir. Respectfully, what fucking good is a majority you can’t legislate with, sir?
Brien Jackson
“There isn’t a single downrent, inner-city, possibly not-white Democratic representative who wouldn’t take a shot at unseating a man generally described as “Mitt Romney, but with less charisma”? Even if the New Guy “inevitably” lost to a Republican in the general election, getting the money & media love to crush a perennial “well known vice presidential hopeful” is a big status (read: future fund-raising) boost to some local hopeful. ”
Not that I can think of off-hand. And remember, there’s an open governorship in the state in 2012. Why would a Democrat who would be credible in a state-wide contest want to take on Bayh in a contentious primary when they could run for that two years later against a field that won’t have any candidates nearly as tough as Bayh.
“and I suspect the well-funded administration of a new & popular president would be able to find a worthy challenger even at this late date.”
According to Open Secrets, Bayh has a whopping $12 million on hand available for the 2010 cycle. How much do you envision the DNC devoting to a potential primary challenger with little to no name recognition in the state at this stage?
demimondian
@General Winfield Stuck: The majority is useless if it can’t be whipped. If the President loses on this issue, then he’s got no value in his majority — and having Rahm Emmanuel pull out his brass knuckles is exactly what the stray lambs need to remind them of the price *they’ll* pay for not playing along.
demimondian
@Brien Jackson: Let me see…I have a problem here…I keeping thinking of the current Secretary of State. She’s President, right? I mean, your argument is so…convincing. How could anyone beat her last year?
demimondian
@burnspbesq: What the man said. It’s the calculation in the mind of every Dem strategist.
freelancer
Forgive my vitriol, but it’s less aimed at Bayh, and more at my two senators: Former Governor and Bush Ag Sec Mike Johanns, and “Democrat” Ben Nelson. FML.
General Winfield Stuck
@Mr Furious:
If it was that simple, I would agree. But it’s not. The reason DINO’s are not in line is because they fear the people who elected them aren’t in line (. They have to worry about a different kind of dem than you or me, plus right leaning independents, who are wary of government expansion and spending. These are the people who rebelled against those things in 1980 and voted for REagan.
That said, I think the DINO’s who are balking are not reading the current situation correctly, at least with Health Care reform. It is not 1980, and most voters want major reform and an option to leave the private insurance system because they have been fucked over so many times. Even the most conservative dem voters, IMHO. Obama has to pound this reality into them, and quash their fears. Maybe threats of reelection opponents would do this, but that should be a last resort, if done at all.
Brien Jackson
” Let me see…I have a problem here…I keeping thinking of the current Secretary of State. She’s President, right? I mean, your argument is so…convincing. How could anyone beat her last year?”
Well if there was another candidate who had been running since ~January of this year and was setting fundraising records this corner, that might be a good point. But, well, there’s not.
I’m not even saying that primary challenges are an inherently bad thing, although I do think they’re somewhat impractical. But even if you think there the greatest thing ever, Evan Bayh in a statewide contest in Indiana is about the worst possible spot you could pick.
Steeplejack
@Litlebritdifrnt:
So do I understand you to say that there’s no, er, reciprocity, or something like that? That your mother is not covered by her insurance plan when she travels to the United States?
burnspbesq
@Brien Jackson:
The perfect primary opponent for Evan Bayh: Marvin Harrison. He’s exactly as qualified as Bill Bradley was at the time of Bradley’s first Senate campaign. His name recognition is off the charts, and there is no one in Indiana who doesn’t love him.
AhabTRuler
@Steeplejack: Well, I know that my health insurance is YOYO in Europe, why should the reverse be any less true?
Brien Jackson
And then there’s the tiny little problem that Bayh is actually extremely popular in Indiana.
http://blueindiana.net/diary/3869/evan-bayhs-popularity-hovers-around-alltime-high
freelancer
OMG
OT, just now on Maddow. crazy birther at GOP rep’s town hall meeting, with raucous applause for the kook and ominous boos when Rep tries to set the record straight. Then they shout wingnut nonsense about WWII, greatest gen, freedom and the pledge.
Also, she showed a preview of Obama’s Today show interview with Meredith Viera, where he makes comments about the private captured by the Taliban, and my first thought was putting a pool together on which wingnut will be all pearl-clutching because Obama never served! He can’t talk about the military!!!
Jim
Maine, of course, is the aberration that gives the most power to Blue Dogs. I don’t know why Olly Snowe likes being in the Senate, she’s got more money than god and doesn’t seem to get much done, but she doesn’t seem to want to go anywhere.
I thought Collins was vulnerable, but I was wrong.
Bill Nelson is, I would say, the best target for a Dem primary challenge.
General Winfield Stuck
Of course your right, let’s get rid of Bayh and replace him with a wingnut. I’m sure that would be better for the progressive cause.
There was never a chance in hell a real reform bill could be passed thru the Senate with regular order. That leaves only the simple majority route, and that is going to be razor close, if the dems have the nuts to pull the trigger.
All of this other crappola with Dino’s etc.. is just the usual theatrics. The person who matters is Obama, and what is he prepared to do. Looks like he’s going to mat with the bully pulpit and has signaled a PO or else. I said the other day a decent bill will be passed, somehow, this time. We shall see.
Steeplejack
@AhabTRuler:
Well, fool that I am, I didn’t know that the default for any insurance plan is YOYO if you’re out of the country. Who’da thunk it? Hmm, guess I’ll have to revise those plans for St.-Tropez later this summer. Or maybe I’ll just stay on the yacht and not go ashore. What could go wrong?
Jennifer
I think Bayh is probably untouchable thanks to his war chest and the fact that such brazen punishment just isn’t done by majority parties. But in the case of others running for re-election in 2010 who lack that war chest, or perhaps are more vulnerable to begin with, the bigger threat is that no one from the national party will help in the campaign.
geg6
They don’t have to beat the Bayhs of the world in an election to make their lives absolutely miserable. They can even give perfunctory support to his campaign. And still make his life a living hell. All it takes is the will to do it. Anybody wanna take a wager on who in this administration has the requisite cold-eyed political will to carry out a mission to let some people know who it really is good to have on your side? Who can make you look good? Who can send good things your way? Anyone think the one and only reason the G20 is in Pittsburgh is how well we’re weathering the economic turndown and how we turned a dying industrial town into a science, technology, and educational center? While that is one of the major reasons, anyone remember that our gov turned on a dime when his girl Hil finally got out and delivered Philly and its ‘Burbs in grand fashion? Or how about the early endorsement from Casey? Or…perhaps it might be related to our brand spanking new Democratic senator? Favors get repaid. Extravagant favors get extravagantly repaid. That is the essence of politics in these matters.
Jennifer
@General Winfield Stuck:
Really, they only need 50 votes. Biden’s the tie-breaker.
That means they can lose the gang of six and four others if need be.
This thing is going to get done.
General Winfield Stuck
Midterms are enthusiasm elections to a fault. Only the most active and faithful come out to vote and if dems don’t pass a good Health Care bill, the progressive faithful won’t be all that enthused, which of course is
Good News For John McCain!
General Winfield Stuck
@Jennifer:
I agree, and we might be the only two dems who think so.
Jon H
@burnspbesq: “The perfect primary opponent for Evan Bayh: Marvin Harrison”
It’d be nice if David Letterman could be persuaded to start threatening to primary Bayh. It’s his home state. After Franken, it’d look natural.
DougJ
I’d give up a seat to scare the rest of the fucking DINOs into line.
I’d give up one, but not more. You just need one scalp to hang over your desk.
Brien Jackson
“I’d give up one, but not more. You just need one scalp to hang over your desk.”
But then you have to win over a Republican, unless you win it back at some point.
geg6
Jon H: Letterman? Oh my. That would be fucking awesome. I hate to tell these pols, but most of these comedians are rather smart and would run circles around these idiots in a debate. It would be a joy to see.
burnspbesq
@Brien Jackson:
True. But. Bunning, Voinovich, Burr.
Brien Jackson
Voinovich is really popular, but he’s also fairly old and just doesn’t have a desire to hang around the Senate deep in the minority. You see a lot of that in a party when they get deep into the hole; guys who aren’t going to last long enough to see the majority again just don’t care to dick away their time. Burr and Bunning aren’t very popular statewide, so I’m not sure what the comparison to Bayh is there.
jcricket
This. Exactly this. 100 times this.
They have nothing to fear – in fact, there are tons of people hiding in the woodwork that will vote Dem (now and in the future) if we pass healthcare reform while Republicans oppose it. This is what happened with Social Security, and it’s true about Medicare now. Just try opposing Medicare and see how far it gets you, even with conservative voters.
So even if all the DINOs care about is their “loose coalition” of conservatives, independents, etc. – tell them they can gain votes by voting for healthcare reform (i.e. appeal to their electability concerns, rather than moral concerns about expanding healthcare access, etc).
Sure, if Obama was suggesting single payer there might be an argument in opposing it because independents fear such a system. But instead we’re getting a public option, some regulations to keep insurance companies from fucking us over quite so badly (or at least making them use lube) and a couple other good things.
The only thing DINOs have to fear is, well, fear itself.
DougJ
But then you have to win over a Republican
Not if you pick up another seat, in NH or NC or Ohio.
DougJ
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a “primary them all, let God sort them out” type.
But you have to have a scalp.
Jennifer
The Bayh family is being paid very well to feign fear.
freelancer
Can we make it Ben Nelson? The guy is blind to the fact that 2nd district has gone blue and voted Democratic twice in Six Months! (In the General, Omaha Metro gave its Electoral Vote to Obama, and we just elected a Dem City Council member mayor against a GOP former mayor with huge name recognition and fundraising.)
It’d be nice if this ConservaDem could see his constituency was shifting beneath him.
MikeJ
There are at least three of us. The White House will make it happen. The Republicans will still declare victory, even if Obama signs the bill with one of Mitch McConnell’s ribs. And Democrats and those to their left will declare defeat even if Obama produces a cure for cancer from antibodies found only in his blood.
And WTF happened to Smoltz? Grrrr. (Sorry, red sox content.)
Brien Jackson
“Don’t get me wrong. I’m not a “primary them all, let God sort them out” type.
But you have to have a scalp.”
That makes sense on some level, but again, Bayh seems like a less than optimal target for that sort of campaign, because his national ambitions keep him somewhat in line. Much better to go after a Nelson or a Landrieu who don’t have much hope for advancement.
Church Lady
@Littlebritdifrnt:
I can’t believe that your Mom couldn’t find coverage less expensive. When we travel overseas, we always insure with Travelex and the premiums have always been very reasonable. My husband goes to China on business twice a year and always purchases their best policy. The premiums usually run about $300. This covers a four week trip and includes life insurance in addition to medical coverage.
We’ve had to file a claim with them twice. My husband wound up in an emergency room in Hong Kong due to his high blood pressure and I had to see a doctor in St. Thomas for noseeum bites. Each time, we were reimbursed in a very short time after filing the claim.
We don’t have any complaints about their fees or their customer service.
Jim
Four. And you’re right about the rest of it. It won’t be everything we want, but I’m confident it will be pretty good. Masochistic misery-loving Dems will moan about Obama being a sell out; PUMAs will masturbate to fantasies of what Our Girl!! would have done; the pundits will declare that LieberBayhDrieu backed Obama into a corner….
Mr Furious
@MikeJ:
He put on a Boston uniform in Arlington.
Seriously. I saw that inning coming a mile away…We don’t win games 2-1 in Texas. We win them 9-7 if we win them at all.
jcricket
Five. And I agree with everything you say – and frankly I’m thrilled. I don’t want it to be “perfect” (because what we know now is less than what we will know in 5 or 10 years after having this new “plan” in place). It’s getting 10s of millions off the uninsured roles, guaranteeing you can get some kind of reasonable plan even if you lose your job (no more COBRA as the only option), establishing a higher floor even if you’re on a private insurance plan (with some of the regulations).
Assuming it doesn’t get walked back or repealed in the future, but instead tweaked and fixed (like allowing Medicare to negotiate with big Pharma, which will happen have to happen eventually) this is pretty good start, all things considered.
JMN Is Now asiangrrlMN's Official Stalker
I’d go with Blanche Lincoln. She’s bad on a number of issues, and the election rules of Arkansas mean that you would be 100% guaranteed to do her in, not by running a primary challenge, but by making room for an independent from the left in the general election.
Actually, that might be a reasonable threat against *anyone*.
ADM
What? In what way has Obama been tougher on K street than say, Bush?
kay
It’s just so clear to me that the Democratic members of Congress who say they want to delay this actually want it to go away, and want industry opposition to kill reform so they don’t have dirty hands.
There isn’t a Democrat in Congress who needs more time to “understand” health care. They own the issue, and they’ve owned it for 30 years. Evan Bayh could recite this stuff.
Two things make me hopeful. Obama’s team are good at political campaigns, and this is now a political campaign, and they have some experience running against both Democrats and Republicans, at the same time.
valdivia
@General Winfield Stuck:
make it six (or whatever number we are at). The mood/moment reminds me a bit of last summer when a lot of media pundits and dems were running around screaming that obama was going to lose the election. Anyone who thought it was going to be easy was reading from a different reality than the one we live in. It is also good to see the reps overplaying their hand with the “kill reform and end Obama” rhetoric. They seem to always oblige and keep underestimating him.
mvr
@freelancer:
I called his office today to say what I felt. I very much doubt the state is shifting as a whole. But he does need the Ds to be not unenthusiastic where they are thickest to take the state as a whole. And he does want to ride the Obama bandwagon as far as he can.
So he isn’t unpressurable, so long as it is light pressure and comes with a carrot.
kay
@valdivia:
I’m laughing at the insurance industry. Why would they care about bipartisanship? I mean, come on. That’s what they’re going to sell? That they have a deep and earnest yearning for Republicans and Democrats to come together on this, purely in the interest of comity?
They don’t worry about all that when they’re ramming through some industry-favored reg, at 3 in the morning.
They want Republicans on board because they’re hoping nothing changes, or in the very worst case, that they are able to extract concessions that protect their bottom line.
Sly
Bush wasn’t necessarily tough on K Street. He relied on DeLay for that, and the “K Street Project” had already been in full swing before Bush had even run for President.
Mike D.
Bush didn’t have a rogue Senator problem. There were true believers and then there was Jim Jeffords and Lincoln Chaffee and that was it. Additionally, Democrats were clambering aboard the $1.35T tax bonanza express. The Republicans’ biggest problem was a pretend problem: they didn’t get the $2T they initially asked for, which was a function of their comprehending the idea of an ‘opening offer.’
Balconesfault
You don’t threaten a Bayh with a primary fight.
You threaten a Bayh by informing him that if healthcare does not pass … no matter how he eventually votes, based on his entry salvos he will be labelled as “the Dem who killed the public option”. That will be the talking point from here on.
Let Bayh keep his nice little legacy seat in Indiana. That collar around his neck will be enough to guarantee he never wins the Democratic Primaries for Prez, much less gets chosen as someone’s VP nod.
He wants to be a ConservaDem? Fine. But in 2012, in 2016, and in 2020 when he’s 60, 64, and 68 he can expect to be sitting on the sidelines with absolutely no chance of getting anywhere near the ticket. He should be made well aware of this right now, just as a matter of courtesy.
LD50
If this is true, I’m very happy.
LD50
@Napoleon: Dude, concern trolling like that is so 2002.
Next thing you know, you’ll start telling us all the things the ‘Democrat Party’ has to do to get elected, and of course, they’ll all be GOP positions.
LD50
…
timb
I contacted his office weeks ago and haven’t heard word one. There aren’t enough of us here in Indiana to change that prick’s mind, but I already mentioned I long for the primary challenge. He’s a Republican in wolf’s clothing.
.
The worst part is he supported Hillary throughout the Indiana primary (it’s the reason she won this state) and THEN was still one of three finalists for a VP slot (which I favored, since I think the VP should be the warm bucket of nothing and not some super utility cabinet member). But, there was no retribution for his dickish behavior. I mean, this Caesar impression is being met with the same treatment Caesar got from his Senate.
.
Nonetheless, the asshole had the balls to send me an email when I criticized his gang of morons, that he “had the full backing of the President” on his group of conservadems. Wow, shocking, that Obama didn’t throw a fit when presented with a fait accompli!
.
Bayh actually is more of a force against progressive values than any powerless Republican. I can’t stand the man.
Meg
seems like everyone expects obama and rahm to do all the heavy lifting. and from the way obama talked on that conference call with the liberal bloggers, he feels like its all on him as well.
it shouldn’t be this way. what i don’t get is why not use his supremeorganizingwizardry from the campaign to facilitate a social movement that pressures congresspeople directly? i keep thinking of howard zinn, when he says that all the important advancements in American history didnt come from congress or the president, but from nonviolent, direct action that makes up a social movement. i know that a bus boycott is easier than an insurance boycott, but i’m still waiting for the social movement for the sick and the poor. that’s the only way real change can happen, and believe me its not happening behind a closed door conference committee.
Allan
@freelancer:
That’s not a scalp, that’s a toupee.
Allan
@Meg: It’s called Organizing for America, and you should visit barackobama.com some time and see what we’re up to.
amk
It’s sad that Obama had to be a tough guy to make his own party members fall in line while shrub had to only ‘act’ tough for these dinos to lick his boots. Hope the Prez kicks their collective asses mightily and makes them see their come-to-Jesus moment.
Amanda
@freelancer: Bingo! Best. Josh. Lyman. Smackdown. Ever.
I sincerely hope the Haley Barbour quote is accurate. Frankly, I’d like to see a little more LBJ-style action from this White House. They’ve got a mandate. They damn well better use it. Otherwise 2010 is going to be really ugly. I shudder at the thought of reliving the Clinton presidency circa 1995…
jcricket
They don’t even need to crack heads. Just to keep pounding in the idea that Dems don’t need to be afraid of Republicans. Dems are a solid majority, and overreach is nowhere in sight.
Stop listening to the villagers and Republicans and only good things will happen, even if Dems still disagree with each other on details.
MNPundit
Of course K Street is afraid of him. They know his base would like to execute the lot of them after they strip them to an income of $150,000 a year. As he said, he was the only thing standing between them and the pitchforks.
I despite Obama for that, but it pays dividends for him later on.
Of course I feel that whatever short term pain that needs to endured to destroy the grip of business interests in the government is worth it.
Glocksman
As a lifelong Hoosier, let me offer my $0.02 on threatening Bayh.
Forget it.
Despite the cute suggestion of Marvin Harrison, there’s no Democrat that can seriously threaten him in a primary.
Also, he may have benefited from his dad’s name, but Evan isn’t Birch Bayh by a long shot.
Before he became a Senator, Bayh was a very popular two term Governor who beat the Republican slime machine.
Seriously, one of the Repub ‘arguments’ about why Bayh wasn’t really a ‘Hoosier’ was that he drove a BMW in college.
Now while I agree with the old saw about the only difference between a porcupine and a BMW is that the prick is on the outside of the porcupine, we have plenty of genuine Hoosier pricks, so driving a Beemer was evidence of nothing at all.
IOW, he didn’t just walk into his Senate seat.
Now perhaps Mitch Daniels could beat Bayh*, but I don’t think he’ll agree to run in a Democratic primary. :)
With Bayh, carrots will work better than a stick.
*All kidding aside, Daniels is probably the only Republican who could give Bayh a tough fight and beat him in the general.
Don’t forget that two terms as Governor served as Bayh’s springboard to the senate.
Bubba Dave
Just out of curiosity, what would the effect be on Bayh if Obama were to encourage and support an independent lefty or a Green? Sure, the progressive would lose the election, but with some OfA support and a whole lot of normally-Dem votes from Gary drained away would that be enough of a difference to throw the election to the Republicans?
Singularity
Can’t stand that prick Bayh, but I agree that he is virtually unassailable in Indiana. OTOH, Balconesfault @107 makes a very good suggestion. You offer the carrot, sure, but make it clear that the stick is saying goodbye to any national ticket aspirations forever.
DougJ
In what way has Obama been tougher on K street than say, Bush?
When did Bush ever tangle with K Street?
drillfork
@Litlebritdifrnt:
Your ferrigners expect to have health insurance when you go on vacation? How precious!!!!
Lraeinindy
@burnspbesq:
Susan Bayh is too busy serving on executive boards to attend a tea at the WH.
Barry
July 20th, 2009 at 9:49 pm DougJ
“I’d give up a seat to scare the rest of the fucking DINOs into line.
I’d give up one, but not more. You just need one scalp to hang over your desk.”
84July 20th, 2009 at 9:50 pm Brien Jackson
“But then you have to win over a Republican, unless you win it back at some point.”
Right now there are 6 (?) Democratic Senators who are friendlier with the GOP than with their (allegedly) own party. I dunno if that count includes Lieberman, but it still takes the solid Democratic block down to 54. IMHO, the Gang knows that, and is happy to play spoiler.
Whacking one would *not* reduce the solid Democratic block by even one vote. If it makes some of the (surviving) Gang of 5 :) fall into line, it’d be a net plus.
Also, if Obama demonstrates the ability to f*ck Senators who are ‘neighbors’ of the GOP, that’s got to give him more cred with threatening GOP Senators.
demimondian
@JMN Is Now asiangrrlMN’s Official Stalker: Well, it might work in Washington State — which I why I threatened Jay Inslee (who happens to be my representative) with a primary from the left next Fall — but it won’t work in Arkansas. There’s not enough of a “left” to have an effect there; Lincoln wins because the state Democratic Party is a traditional coalition between professional-class whites and African Americans, neither of whom are going to vote for a Green in sufficient numbers to have an effect on the outcome.
MNPundit
@demimondian: I wish JMN best of luck, the woman won’t even talk to me. heh.
Smart lady.