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You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / The Looming Pension Armageddon

The Looming Pension Armageddon

by John Cole|  July 21, 200911:47 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics

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Apparently there is a budget deal in CA, but this seems like the real story:

Reporting from Sacramento — California’s huge government pension fund is expected to report today a whopping annual loss of an estimated $56.8 billion, almost a quarter of its investment portfolio.

The loss at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System for the fiscal year ended June 30 is the second in a row for the country’s largest fund. A year ago, CalPERS reported an $8.5-billion loss, as the severe recession began to take hold.

The tremendous drop in value is expected to have a direct effect on the amount of money that the state and about 2,000 local governments and school districts must contribute in coming years to pay for pensions and healthcare for 1.6 million government workers, retirees and their families.

Going to be terrifying watching the pension time-bombs go off all over the country.

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Reader Interactions

121Comments

  1. 1.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 11:52 am

    One of the many scary things about CALPERS’ decline is the fact that participants are locked in to it for their retirement. They cannot collect Social Security even if they wanted to.

  2. 2.

    DougJ

    July 21, 2009 at 11:52 am

    The Obama pension crisis begins.

  3. 3.

    4tehlulz

    July 21, 2009 at 11:57 am

    Who the hell administers CalPERS? Bernie Madoff?

  4. 4.

    Fulcanelli

    July 21, 2009 at 11:58 am

    Looks like the old DFH(TM) battle cry of “Eat The Rich” may actually come true. I hear they taste like chickenhawk.

  5. 5.

    TCG

    July 21, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    The Pension time bomb has been building for a while.

    There are 10 different multi-employer pension plans where I work for employees and most are upside down. One has been on life support for two years and will eventually die albeit a slow death.

  6. 6.

    John Cole

    July 21, 2009 at 12:05 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM: Why can’t they collect social security?

  7. 7.

    Leelee for Obama

    July 21, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    I am not a pension holder, so this will impact me differently. I will always be on the edge, but, I always have been, so at least it won’t be new. What will be different is that I will not have lost anything that I scrimped and saved for-so I guess that’s a win, huh? Sweet Jesus Christ on a crutch, what the hell is the next decade or three gonna be like? This is scarier than 23 T lost dollars-this is old people, me included, dying off like cape buffalo. And right when the fucking ice floes are melting!

  8. 8.

    Sister Machine Gun of Mild Harmony

    July 21, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    And it is usually the retirees who are the first to scream about raising taxes and to shreik about where all their tax dollars are going. It isn’t eat the rich. It is eat the young.

  9. 9.

    Comrade Jake

    July 21, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    @Leelee for Obama:

    this is old people, me included, dying off like cape buffalo

    Or, working as greeters in Walmart, which is pretty much the same thing.

  10. 10.

    whinger

    July 21, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    @John Cole: I presume California employees paying into CalPERS are like Ohio employees paying into OPERS; I have an OPERS deduction from my paycheck, no FICA deduction, and OPERS takes the place of FICA. (Disability insurance, death benefits, retirements, etc.) I had a career before I started working at the state university that employs me, so I made FICA contributions for maybe a decade, but I haven’t paid into it since 2001.

  11. 11.

    Leelee for Obama

    July 21, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    @Comrade Jake: Personally, I can’t choose between them.

  12. 12.

    Tokyokie

    July 21, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    John, Some public employees don’t pay Social Security taxes, with money being diverted into pension plans instead. However, because those pension plans have been chasing unsustainably high returns, Calpers and others have found themselves stuck with large chunks of the big shitpile that Goldman Sachs and their ilk pushed off on them.

  13. 13.

    gnomedad

    July 21, 2009 at 12:20 pm

    OT, professionals elitists edit Palin’s resignation speech.

  14. 14.

    The Grand Panjandrum

    July 21, 2009 at 12:22 pm

    @John Cole: It is done in many states. The state collects the taxes from its employees and puts in in the state pension fund instead of sending it to the Feds. But only state employees are part of this option. I believe NM does the same thing IIRC.

    Think back to 2005 and what would have happened if Bush and the GOP had been successful “privatizing” SS.

  15. 15.

    Leelee for Obama

    July 21, 2009 at 12:25 pm

    @The Grand Panjandrum: Yeah, that would have been teh awesome! Even the nimrods who voted for GDub knew that was a complete cluster-fuck.

  16. 16.

    Keith

    July 21, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    It’s nothing that ending the death/capital gains taxes can’t fix!

  17. 17.

    Woody

    July 21, 2009 at 12:34 pm

    Social Security eligibility is based on the number of quarters in one’s tax-paying life one contributed to FICA, iirc.

    I think the magic number is 28 quarters, but I am by no means sure of it…

  18. 18.

    Leelee for Obama

    July 21, 2009 at 12:34 pm

    @Keith: Do not forget tort-reform! It’s the ungrateful cripples and survivors that are bankrupting our Glorious Bestest Health Care System. I read it on some website, somewhere, so it must needs be true!

  19. 19.

    gex

    July 21, 2009 at 12:37 pm

    With any luck, the last three decades of supply-side, no taxes, economics will lead us back to America’s greatest days: when senior citizens ate cat food. Now with tasty, tasty Melamine!

  20. 20.

    Martin

    July 21, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    Who the hell administers CalPERS? Bernie Madoff?

    CalPERS is very well managed, actually, but their problem is their size. They’re so big that avoiding the landmines is a really difficult thing to do. They basically own stock in _everything_. There’s no way they could avoid being in banks, in real estate (banks, realtors, title companies, etc.), in autos (or contractors), and so on. There is no safe haven for a quarter trillion dollars.

    So losing 20% when the market is off 35% is rather a victory for a fund that large. Show me a large diversified fund that doesn’t look as bad. Stocks/bonds/commodities – everything went in the shitter.

    And I don’t think CA allows you to opt out of SS any longer. I don’t think I even had that option. But a lot of people that are retired or are close to retiring did have the option and took it.

  21. 21.

    Mark S.

    July 21, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Think back to 2005 and what would have happened if Bush and the GOP had been successful “privatizing” SS.

    Jesus, and this is just after I watched that McWalnuts video. I firmly believe that another Republican presidency will be the end of the country. No country can be ruled solely by greed, paranoia, and ignorance.

  22. 22.

    Punchy

    July 21, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    $56 billion is only 0.23% of the $24 trill the US govt will lose, so suck on this, Cali.

    Signed,

    Bernake

  23. 23.

    Leelee for Obama

    July 21, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    @gex: Ah, gex! Such nostalgia! It reminds me of the joke about old people who were not really feeding the birds, but trying to coax them into Shake and Bake bags…good times!

    If one can’t laugh, one considers swimming w/o stroking….there’s another word for that…oh, yeah,, drowning!

  24. 24.

    Gus

    July 21, 2009 at 12:42 pm

    Unfortunately, the wrong people will be blamed, and we’ll elect people who will make the problem worse. The Goldman Sachs’ and JP Morgans will loot the country worse than ever while we elect the Mitch McConnells and Mike Huckabees. The people who deserve the blame for fucking things up always skate.

  25. 25.

    srv

    July 21, 2009 at 12:44 pm

    Texas Teachers retirement system (TRTA) is the same way, not sure about the state workers. Here’s the caliber of the appointees:

    AUSTIN – Governor Rick Perry has announced the appointment of R. David Kelly of Dallas to the Teacher Retirement System of Texas (TRS) Board of Trustees for a term that will expire on August 31, 2011. Board members act as trustees for TRS funds, securities, and other assets. The appointment is subject to confirmation by the Texas Senate.
    Kelly is a partner in Carleton Residential Properties, a full-service, fully integrated real estate firm based out of Dallas, where he directs its acquisition, asset management, and financial advising activities. Prior to joining Carleton, he was with Trammell Crow Company as a director of its capital markets on a nationwide basis. Earlier during his six-year career with Trammell Crow, Kelly oversaw a $350,000,000 portfolio of real estate properties in the Western United States, and he was instrumental in restructuring and refinancing a $750,000,000 national real estate portfolio. His other career experience includes a tour with Salomon Brothers where he focused on providing corporate financial services to Fortune 500 accounts, and a brief tour with Goldman Sachs and Co. in its Real Estate Department as an associate. He also served as chairman of the Texas Public Finance Authority.
    Kelly received his bachelor’s degree from Harvard University (John Harvard Scholar, Economics) and completed an MBA at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business Administration.

    You know where the TRTA is headed now.

  26. 26.

    jibeaux

    July 21, 2009 at 12:46 pm

    Good heavens, that is the first I’ve ever heard of being vested in a state retirement system instead of social security? Whose genius idea was that? I’m in the state system, but fortunately chip into FICA as well.
    I say this a lot, but I am definitely going to try to save money for the long haul. I even bought some canning supplies this year to try to save money through the year on tomato sauce, pickles, and jelly. The folks that lived through the Great Depression and thereafter never let a birthday card or wrapping paper or piece of string go in the trash knew what they were doing.

  27. 27.

    Martin

    July 21, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    And this budget deal is terrible. Democrats are fucking worthless in this state. We’re going to have a tidal wave of cities going bankrupt.

  28. 28.

    Fulcanelli

    July 21, 2009 at 12:49 pm

    @Mark S.: North Korea, the worker’s paradise?
    @Gus: Kindly avoid using the word “we” when talking about electing McConnell and Huckabee. I know what you meant, it’s just that I just had lunch. And… my Senators, Reed and Whitehouse aren’t bad. Also.

  29. 29.

    Comrade Jake

    July 21, 2009 at 12:51 pm

    OT, but have any of you seen the Michael Steele/Joe Scarborough exchange from this morning? Steele should just, well, he should not talk to people who will ask him questions. Holy Epic Fail Batman.

  30. 30.

    mclaren

    July 21, 2009 at 12:54 pm

    Mark S. said:

    No country can be ruled solely by greed, paranoia, and ignorance.

    Nonsense. It’s worked for 250 years. Why change now?

    Speaking of the California pension meltdown, the reason Calpers was chasing unsustainable returns is that police and firefighters and especially the thug prison guards are insanely overpaid. Statistically, being a cop is a safer profession than being a construction worker, so the claim that “it’s a dangerous job so they deserve to be well paid” is garbage and contradicts the observed facts. The reality is that the prison guards unions has simply managed to extort fantastic largesse from the California state budget, with something like half the total budget of California annually getting sucked up on the state prison system. It’s insane. 2400 California prison guards made more than $100,000 a year last year, and every one of those grossly overpaid thugs will retire with outrageously generous pensions. No state can afford that, even without the financial meltdown. It’s unsustainable. Police and firefighters and especially prison guards are all wildly overpaid in California.

    The real hysteria and frenzy will start when the states begin renegging on these obscenely lavish pension benefits. It’s going to have to happen. At some point, the states will simply say, “We can’t afford this anymore,” and they’ll unilaterally start scaling back the pension payments. It’s mean lawsuits and invective and mass protests, but in the end there’s no other way. These pension agreements were and are unsustainable.

  31. 31.

    jibeaux

    July 21, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    Considering the last thread I saw mclaren in and the hammer of justice which ensued, I recommend ignoring.

    O/T but I just got an email from the DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) urging me to write to Republicans to not be so obstructionist on health care. 1) I also plan to write to the fish to ask them not to swim, and to the birds to request a moratorium on flying, and 2) May I also have the contact information for the Democratic senators to also urge them not to be obstructionist on health care, Mr. Poersch?

  32. 32.

    Patrick

    July 21, 2009 at 12:59 pm

    Sounds like CalPERS reports July 1 to July 1, so -25% is just about average. The problem for most pensions is that during the Tech Bubble, they had made so much money, States/companies stopped contributing. Then after that bubble burst, few States have been able to come up with the political will to start contributing again. Now another down market.

    There was a time that pensions bought long term bonds to meet the expected retirement of new workers. But all that great academic research in the 70s and 80s showed that to be stupid. “Stocks beat bonds.” And maybe they will, but will the pensions stay solvent long enough.

  33. 33.

    MattF

    July 21, 2009 at 1:00 pm

    The CalPERS losses are a magnified version of what’s happening to those of us in 401(k) ‘defined contribution’ plans. The basic problem is that when you do the arithmetic, you discover that you won’t have enough to retire on– unless you increase the riskiness of your holdings and shoot for higher returns. But more riskiness means that there’s a chance that you’ll end up with a lot less. There’s really no good answer to this situation, except to inherit money from your rich relatives.

  34. 34.

    par4

    July 21, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    Bring out your dead

  35. 35.

    PurpleGirl

    July 21, 2009 at 1:03 pm

    Social Security requires 40 quarters (in which you were paid a certain amount) to be “vested” as it were. So if you contributed for 10 years that’s 40 quarters. However the SS benefit will depend on the averaging of salary during those 10 years, it won’t count higher salaries from time outside the SS system.

    I looked at the SS website and the explanation is, I think, convoluted since it now involves the amount you were paid for work. And although the amount is modest (anyone who has been paid $1,090 for a 3-month period in 2009), it still gets more complex than I think is warranted.

  36. 36.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    Yes, there is a budget deal in California. To close the $26Bn budget gap the legislature is making cuts amounting to $15Bn. The other $11Bn will be made up by withholding property tax revenues from counties and cities and by a series of accounting gimmicks.
    The biggest cut is of $9Bn from education. We’re already feeling the effects of that one as K-12 teachers, administrators and classified staff are being laid off state wide and schools are being closed. At the CSUs and UCs, employees are taking two furlough days per month through at least June, 2010, fees are being hiked, admissions cut, lecturers cut and new faculty hiring is largely frozen. The balance of the cuts will be made to state health and welfare services.
    Withholding property tax revenues from cities and counties means that they will have to cut into libraries, parks, recreation, maintenance, possibly even fire and safety services. Anyone who says that the lege punted away part of the problem should be ashamed of themselves.
    The news isn’t all bad though: the budget includes no new taxes, no fee hikes and it doesn’t close any tax loopholes(because closing a loophole is a tax increase – right?).
    Arnie is patting himself on the back even as we post.

  37. 37.

    HyperIon

    July 21, 2009 at 1:07 pm

    I believe that federal workers get a similar “deal”. They do not pay into SS. They have their own pension system. I haven’t heard how it is doing or if it is managed like SS.

  38. 38.

    Mike

    July 21, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    This is why they’re suing the rating agencies.

  39. 39.

    Brachiator

    July 21, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    .Apparently there is a budget deal in CA, but this seems like the real story.

    Good catch on the pension issue.

    Part of the problem is that that total of state worker salaries and pensions is currently unsustainable. This is not to say that workers don’t “deserve” their salaries, it is that the state cannot afford the current level of obligations even if taxes are increased. And current law holds that state and local governments must make up the difference if the value of the money invested in the pension plan falls (still another reason why getting rid of Social Security is a bad idea).

    Some of the $56 billion is made up of future obligations. But various employee unions have negotiated a sweet deal. The pension level is not determined by base salary, but can include overtime paid and deferred vacation pay.

    So in the new budget, while there are staff cuts and furlough days (mandatory days off), the Democrats made sure that they preserved a system which will guarantee future budget deficits. Raises for public employees have been deferred, but they are still part of the budget and pensions will be based on the the value of the future deferrals.

    The LA Times story on the budget makes this key point:

    It is also unclear how long the proposal would keep the state’s budget balanced. The plan is full of expense deferrals, one-time measures and assumptions that invite a deficit to reemerge.

    And so, even though services have been cut, especially in education, the governor and the legislature have openly declared that maintaining salary and benefits for state workers is more important than providing services to the citizens.

    The Republicans in the legislature, by the way, are as stoopid as the Democrats. They have entirely given up on the idea of helping to govern the state or to come up with workable long-term solutions, and have decided that they only thing they are good for is crying “No new taxes!”

  40. 40.

    Ash Can

    July 21, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    OT, but on the general topic of budgets, a bit of good (read: sane) news: Senate shitcans F-22 (h/t GOS).

  41. 41.

    kansi

    July 21, 2009 at 1:23 pm

    John,
    Sorry to report my avast alarm bells went off warning of a virus on the site again. Arrrrrgh.

  42. 42.

    Comrade Jake

    July 21, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    Friends of mine in the UC system were saying they were looking at a modest decrease in faculty salaries. I don’t know if that’s still being discussed, but I wonder if it’s ever happened before.

  43. 43.

    Jon H

    July 21, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    @4tehlulz: “Who the hell administers CalPERS? Bernie Madoff?”

    Pensions are often required to invest only in Aaa-rated securities.

    And we all know what a “Aaa rating” has been worth, lately, right?

  44. 44.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 1:27 pm

    @Brachiator:

    And so, even though services have been cut, especially in education, the governor and the legislature have openly declared that maintaining salary and benefits for state workers is more important than providing services to the citizens.

    I’d hardly call a 14% pay cut, which is what the furlough days for state employees amount to, maintaining the salaries of state employees.

  45. 45.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 1:36 pm

    @Comrade Jake:
    My wife, who works at a UC, hasn’t mentioned it. What they are doing is making tenured faculty teach more classes and not hiring lecturers. Lecturers are academically qualified individuals who teach classes on a contract basis. Some lecturers prefer to do it because the pay is decent and it doesn’t lock them into one place: many lecture at more than one school. Others are lecturers because they hope to get hired into the tenure track. In either case, only a relative handful of lecturers have contracts guaranteeing them employment. The rest are simply not going to be hired.

  46. 46.

    Throwin Stones

    July 21, 2009 at 1:49 pm

    Haven’t read upthread yet.
    Sort of O/T: Taibbi is on On Point now discussing the latest Goldman Sachs / Rolling Stone article.
    Good Stuff.

  47. 47.

    mike in denmark

    July 21, 2009 at 1:49 pm

    @kansi: Me too.
    edit: https://balloon-juice.com/wp-content/plugins/live-comment-preview.php/commentPreview.js is the file causing trouble

  48. 48.

    Tonal Crow

    July 21, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    The malware appears to be back. My virus scanner says that https://balloon-juice.com/wp-content/plugins/live-comment-preview.php/commentPreview.js has HTML:Script-inf malware. I haven’t downloaded it to examine; perhaps someone with more JScript knowledge will do so.

  49. 49.

    Trollhattan

    July 21, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    @Martin #20

    Right, Calif. state employees haven’t had the SS opt-out option for a long while. They contribute to both SS and PERS. There is now a delay before new employees begin participating in PERS–it’s either two or three years.

  50. 50.

    Brachiator

    July 21, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    I’d hardly call a 14% pay cut, which is what the furlough days for state employees amount to, maintaining the salaries of state employees.

    Pension benefits, holidays, overtime, etc., are based on the salary without respect to furlough days. I know people in private industry who have had to take real salary reductions in order to keep their jobs.

    The state knew that the budget was out of whack. But instead of looking at changes that might not even require severe staff cuts or salary reductions, they insisted on doing practically nothing or using budget gimmicks to shift items around.

    This has been the case up and down the system, state and local agencies.

    LA county dragged their foot on reviewing phone expenses, and finally found that they may be paying as much as $3 million on unused phone lines. They pointlessly paid a $38 monthly bill for one line every month for 14 years.

    In LA, even though school enrollment is declining, the school district insists on using the proceeds from a $2 billion bond issue to build schools — even over the objections of parents in some neighborhoods. A significant amount of this money is going towards the administrative expense of the building program planners (this is a great story that should be covered more fully by the local newspapers, but that’s another issue).

    A teacher I commute with noted that in her city, school administrators were going to go ahead with redecorating a district office, including spending $700 a piece for chairs, until someone blew the whistle loud on these clowns.

    And the budget beat goes on. The foolishness of local governments and school districts count because they benefit from state funding and because local benefit packages influence what state employees ask for.

  51. 51.

    Tonal Crow

    July 21, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    @MattF: That’s why we must privatize Social Security.

    /GOPer

  52. 52.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    @Brachiator:
    Whether the pay cut is a private industry mandate or furlough days mandated by the state the employee has less money in his or her paycheck. Why are furlough days not “real”?

  53. 53.

    J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford

    July 21, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    [URL=”http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090721/ap_on_sp_fo_ne/fbn_roethlisberger_lawsuit”]Roethlisberger Accused of Sexual Assault in Lawsuit[/URL]

  54. 54.

    Llelldorin

    July 21, 2009 at 2:00 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    That’s odd, it’s been a fairly big deal (I’m at UC Davis). UC Employees are taking furloughs that amount to a pay cut between 4% and 10% (it’s graduated based on salary; higher-salaried employees take larger cuts). Student employees are exempt, and cuts for unionized employees need to be worked out by collective bargaining, but otherwise, everyone’s getting cut.

    Here’s the summary.

  55. 55.

    WereBear

    July 21, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    I never thought opting out of Corporate World, giving up a potentially high salary and eventual pension, and basically deciding against having a career in favor of going where the wind blew me and accepting poverty and uncertainty over soul-crushing boredom… would turn out to be the smart thing to do by 2009.

    Thanks, Republicans, for making my sorta-hippie-type existence turn out to be more sensible than those folks who played by the rules, and now have no savings, no retirement, and no job.

  56. 56.

    Richard Stanczak

    July 21, 2009 at 2:13 pm

    Fortunately, your federal government would not tolerate this kind of staggering loss when it occurred in that bastion of free market capitalism….the financial services industry.

    Unfortunately for the people in the pension funds, they are classified as neo-socialists thus must take their chances with the “Invisible Hand”.

    That seems fair doesn’t it?

  57. 57.

    MobiusKlein

    July 21, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    http://klikvs.cn/src.js is doing some funky stuff:

    eval(unescape …..

    which I look at and cringe. eval is basically an open door to do stuff, and the unescape bit is a way to obscure stuff.

    I STRONGLY recommend not including .js files hosted on some other domain you don’t control – it’s like trusting the next door neighboor with your lock combination, and they may or may not be a crack house.

    https://balloon-juice.com/wp-content/plugins/live-comment-preview.php/commentPreview.js
    includes that file.

  58. 58.

    D-Chance.

    July 21, 2009 at 2:22 pm

    All of FDR’s Ponzi schemes and their public sector copycats are imploding one by one. Put your money here in this box, boys… Big Brother will invest it and make it grow for your future while paying out to an ever-increasing group of oldsters who are retiring younger while their life dependencies skew older with newer and way-more-expensive medical treatments extending those “golden years”.

  59. 59.

    Glen

    July 21, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    @Tokyokie: This used to be true for Civil Servants because their pension plan was established after the Spanish American war, well before SS, but this option was removed about 1990 or so. (I forget the exact date but I was a CS at the time). About the only people that still have this option is MAYBE your Congress critters. They have an extremely sweet pension plan and health coverage. (i.e. they pretty much get their salary for the rest of their life after getting voted in.)

    The government system had quite a few scams if you knew how to work the system – if they abolished your position when you retired, you were eligible for complete SS benefits even if you never put a nickel into the system. These guys were called double and triple dippers since they were going to be drawing two or three retirement checks (there was a way to get DOD retirement too).

  60. 60.

    Svensker

    July 21, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    @mclaren:

    every one of those grossly overpaid thugs will retire with outrageously generous pensions. No state can afford that, even without the financial meltdown. It’s unsustainable. Police and firefighters and especially prison guards are all wildly overpaid in California.
    The real hysteria and frenzy will start when the states begin renegging on these obscenely lavish pension benefits. It’s going to have to happen.

    Yes. Going to happen in NJ. Our Dem Gov. Corzine (formerly of Goldman Sachs….) knew this was coming and tried to do something about. Got nowhere of course and decided to survive politically and kick the can down the road. That can is going to get kicked until the options are only to renegotiate these pensions or raise taxes on folks a whole lot. Whoever screams the loudest at the end “wins”. But it won’t get fixed until there is a terrible crisis.

    My little town is a) little and b) ridiculously safe, and average police salary is $100K. Not sustainable.

  61. 61.

    Tonal Crow

    July 21, 2009 at 2:24 pm

    @MobiusKlein: Presumably that include is not intentional, but is the result of someone hacking preview.js itself.

  62. 62.

    Sonofdunnco

    July 21, 2009 at 2:25 pm

    As an ex-Chrysler skilled tradesman I left on an early retirement just to get full benefits for at least a few years. I wonder if anyone else has done that.

  63. 63.

    Glen

    July 21, 2009 at 2:27 pm

    @D-Chance.: If only it were true. It turns out Wall St American capitalism imploded LONG BEFORE SS ever did. American capitalism has been bailed out by your tax dollars – or haven’t you figure that out yet? The end result is if SS goes bust – so does American capitalism since you, the US taxpayers, are underwriting up to $23.7 trillion in Wall St debt.

  64. 64.

    chopper

    July 21, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    @HyperIon:

    we pay into SS alright. we just have a sweet pension system as well. and a very well-managed 401(k) equivalent.

    all in all, while the pay isn’t as good as the private sector, i should hopefully be able to retire without having to eat cat food to get by.

  65. 65.

    Punchy

    July 21, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    @J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: Interestingly, you wont find a WORD of this on ESPN. Guy on radio said that if ESPN cant break the story, they try to kill it by ignoring it. Unless they can “break” a new angle and pretend the whole story was theirs to begin with.

    Never realized ESPN was this petty and obtuse.

  66. 66.

    GregB

    July 21, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    Isn’t it time for someone to crunch the numbers and let the American public know just how much more money they would have lost if George W. Bush had turned Social Security over to Bernie Madoff, Jim Kramer and Lenny Dykstra?

    Just wondering.

    -G

  67. 67.

    MobiusKlein

    July 21, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    Somebody hacking preview.js maybe – I’ve seen all sorts of stupid stuff in actual professional javascripts.

    Just use some js on a different site, not knowing what it does.

  68. 68.

    chopper

    July 21, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    @Glen:

    well, yeah. SS has been ‘on the edge’ for decades now, mostly due to scaremongering. not that dipping into the fund helped, and in fact that action vs shoring it up when we had the chance (thank you, GOP) will likely lead to critical issues in the future.

    but funds that are invested in the glorious free market have been imploding left and right and real fuckin quicklike recently. compared to them SS is unsinkable.

  69. 69.

    sparky

    July 21, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    i think what many commenters here are missing is that pensions cannot and will not be cut. if CALPERS or whoever loses money that money MUST be made up by the general public in the form of taxes. as a legal matter i don’t know if those contracts can be voided even in municipal or state bankruptcy (assuming the state of California could file for bankruptcy).

  70. 70.

    gex

    July 21, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    @Glen: Not to mention that the collapse and failure of Wall Street is a necessary precondition for “FDR’s Ponzi schemes” to implode. If the free market had been the salvation that D-Chance and Reagan thought they were, CalPERS wouldn’t be in this position. They weren’t investing in hippie communes.

  71. 71.

    gex

    July 21, 2009 at 2:37 pm

    @Punchy: We’ve been noticing that here in MN lately. Local sports radio has been getting some “good” scoops on the Favre situation. And if the scoop contradicts what Ed Werder says, well then the scoop just gets ignored by ESPN.

  72. 72.

    Ash Can

    July 21, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    Re malware issues: I did notice when I posted about the F-22 upthread that the preview function did not appear on my screen at all.

    ETA: Nor did it appear this time, and the edit function came up in full-screen format. ::gives screen the fisheye::

  73. 73.

    Glen

    July 21, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    @sparky: If hyperinflation kicks in (and I don’t see what’s going to prevent it especially since helicopter Ben says he’s got it under control) I will be willing to take food and livestock for pension payments. Hey, I’m flexible!

  74. 74.

    Comrade Kevin

    July 21, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    One of the many scary things about CALPERS’ decline is the fact that participants are locked in to it for their retirement. They cannot collect Social Security even if they wanted to.

    This is bullshit. My mother is a retired school worker, and she gets both a pension from CalPERS and Social Security.

  75. 75.

    Original Lee

    July 21, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    @HyperIon: Older federal workers (born before 1948) have CSRS. Younger federal workers have FERS, which is like a 401K, and they kick in to SS.

  76. 76.

    Face

    July 21, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    @sparky: Can someone please explain why these pensions cannot be cut? Weren’t the UAW’s pensions reduced? What makes them so special that they cant be reduced in the event that the pension fund takes a bath?

  77. 77.

    guard

    July 21, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    and to that guy who thinks we are thugs, go down to the bus depot where the local prison releases their inmates to go home,,, invite one home to go out with your daughter,,, go visit Charles NG or Richard Rameras in SQ,,, take your family along,,,

    i can’t believe some of these post i read,

  78. 78.

    arguingwithsignposts

    July 21, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    Removing the cap on SS contributions (it’s like $90,000 now) would help fund the program. I never understood why multimillionaires should be allowed to get out of paying SS tax on their entire paycheck.

    One thing I don’t hear a lot in these discussions about the pension systems is that the retirees have skin in the game. it’s not just the state that pays in. state workers have money withdrawn from their checks every month. if those pension plans go down, there’s a lot of personal savings that will go down too.

  79. 79.

    J sub D

    July 21, 2009 at 3:05 pm

    *yawn*

    This isn’t news to me.

  80. 80.

    JenJen

    July 21, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    O/T, but Rick Sanchez is talkin’ Birthers over at CNN. Ugh.

    “It’s growing like wildfire! The story that just won’t go away!”

  81. 81.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 3:09 pm

    @Comrade Kevin:
    No, it isn’t. Did you read any of the above posts?

  82. 82.

    flukebucket

    July 21, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    the Balko challenge

  83. 83.

    ronin122

    July 21, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    @Face: Because. Remember, private sector + union = evil, all else is okay.

  84. 84.

    Dennis-SGMM

    July 21, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    @Llelldorin:
    My wife works at UC Fullerton. All of the administrative staff was put on two days/month furlough a month ago. She didn’t mention anything about faculty although they likely got it too.
    Supposedly, the furlough days are “only” supposed to be in effect through June, 2010. Considering that CA isn’t even close to being at the bottom of its financial troubles and hasn’t done anything to resolve some of the structural problems that cause them I’d guess that it will be furlough days for two or three more years.

  85. 85.

    Brick Oven Bill

    July 21, 2009 at 3:29 pm

    Civil servants used to justify sweetheart pension plans because public sector pay was lower than private sector pay. But now public sector pay is higher than private sector pay.

    Anybody who places their faith in a government that tells them that they will gladly pay you in twenty years for showing up to the office today is not that sharp.

    These are the people who tell you about taking cruises at Christmas parties and brag about the deal they cut with their retirement committee. They should have saved their money instead of taking cruises and drinking fancy drinks.

  86. 86.

    Brachiator

    July 21, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    Whether the pay cut is a private industry mandate or furlough days mandated by the state the employee has less money in his or her paycheck. Why are furlough days not “real”?

    Furlough days, like deferred raises, are budget gimmicks. For example, GM says “We have to permanently cut payroll costs in order to stay in business and so we have to reduce your salary by 14%.”

    Here California is saying, “You have to take some furlough days this year. But don’t worry, next year, we will restore everything. So you take a 14% cut this year and we absolutely guarantee that we will pay you 20% next year.”

    The furlough days avoid the real problem that A) the state does not have enough money and B) declining revenues and increasing costs make it difficult to pay these obligations in the future.

  87. 87.

    Steve LaBonne

    July 21, 2009 at 3:46 pm

    But now public sector pay is higher than private sector pay.

    Largely true for blue-collar jobs (more because the bottom has fallen out of the private-sector blue collar employment market than because public employers are all that generous). Completely the opposite of the truth for professional and technical employees.

  88. 88.

    chopper

    July 21, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    @Brick Oven Bill:

    Anybody who places their faith in a government that tells them that they will gladly pay you in twenty years for showing up to the office today is not that sharp.

    shrug. i dig on a good pension. i could make more in the private sector, but i’d be putting in 50% more hours/week and would get few holidays or time off.

    also, you’re an idiot. also.

  89. 89.

    Keith G

    July 21, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    @Brick Oven Bill: Are you still a racist?

  90. 90.

    Wile E. Quixote

    July 21, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    @guard

    and to that guy who thinks we are thugs, go down to the bus depot where the local prison releases their inmates to go home,,, invite one home to go out with your daughter,,, go visit Charles NG or Richard Rameras in SQ,,, take your family along,,,
    i can’t believe some of these post i read,

    And here I was thinking that you guys were “correctional officers” which is why you get paid so much. But if these guys are still a bunch of bad-asses after years or even decades of your tender ministrations then it seems to me that you’re really just a bunch of thuggish prison guards because obviously you haven’t done anything to “correct” their behavior.

  91. 91.

    Brick Oven Bill

    July 21, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    A moderately-skilled technician I know makes straight up $10/hr working a private sector job. A similarly-skilled unionized civil servant position that promises a pension pays $23/hr for a comparable job.

    Professionals in the private construction industry in my neck of the woods these days are lucky to be employed and many shops are going under. The ‘professionals’ with the desks at City Hall are doing less, but still go out to lunch at the restaurant every day for an hour. Dupe de dupe de dupe. They still get their by-weekly checks.

    This will end, and it is probably not a bad thing. They will whine and whine. These people are on the record setting strategic goals of maximizing government revenue and increasing government payrolls. They do not get it.

    Keith G: Are you still a Creationist?

  92. 92.

    Betseed

    July 21, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Here in Illinois state employees aren’t allowed to opt in to Social Security even if we want to. So if our pension system goes kablooey like California’s, then I have only my 403b to rely on for retirement. And let me reiterate that I pay into the pension system too, it’s not just money from the state.

  93. 93.

    Steve LaBonne

    July 21, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    Like I said, blue collar jobs. “Professional and technical” means doctors, lawyers, engineers and scientists. They are nearly always payed less, often much less, in the public sector.

  94. 94.

    Brick Oven Bill

    July 21, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    That ain’t the case out here with engineers Steve.

  95. 95.

    Steve LaBonne

    July 21, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    Here in Illinois state employees aren’t allowed to opt in to Social Security even if we want to.

    Same in Ohio. And here it’s ALL public employees, not just state employees.

  96. 96.

    Steve LaBonne

    July 21, 2009 at 4:13 pm

    That ain’t the case out here with engineers Steve.

    Your anecdotes demonstrate that you don’t even know what an engineer is. Engineer != technician who fixes stuff.

  97. 97.

    Tax Analyst

    July 21, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    guard
    “and to that guy who thinks we are thugs, go down to the bus depot where the local prison releases their inmates to go home,,, invite one home to go out with your daughter,,, go visit Charles NG or Richard Rameras in SQ,,, take your family along,,,
    i can’t believe some of these post i read”

    Wile E. Quixote:
    “And here I was thinking that you guys were “correctional officers” which is why you get paid so much. But if these guys are still a bunch of bad-asses after years or even decades of your tender ministrations then it seems to me that you’re really just a bunch of thuggish prison guards because obviously you haven’t done anything to “correct” their behavior.”

    Wile: I think that’s a little over the top. Nobody is too worried about “correcting” Ng or Ramirez’s behavior. They aren’t getting out. As to rehabilitating other prisoners, well, I don’t think guards are there to do that, so there would need to be programs to do it, and last I heard the state wasn’t spending any money on that. I wouldn’t blame the guards. Whether they are overpaid or not depends on how much any of us would want to deal with the prisoners who inhabit our penal institutions. It doesn’t sound like a fun job and can be downright dangerous. Now if you want to attack the overtime racket that appears to be an ongoing situation you have a valid point, and it’s very possible their pensions are in the same over-promised range as some other state employees.

    Are there any sadistic thugs among their ranks? Probably. Is it fair to paint all prison guards as such? Probably not.

  98. 98.

    Brick Oven Bill

    July 21, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    Smile or sigh? I think I’ll just eat my hamburger.

  99. 99.

    Keith G

    July 21, 2009 at 4:25 pm

    @Brick Oven Bill:

    Keith G: Are you still a Creationist?

    Your mindless musings have disabused me of any notions that the universe is governed by the just logic of a supreme being, so that would be a “no”, Sparky.

  100. 100.

    gopher2b

    July 21, 2009 at 4:34 pm

    “Agriculture chairman Collin Peterson and Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank (share oversight of of futures markets) are in agreement to have derivatives go through clearinghouses and to ban naked credit default swaps as part of the omnibus financial reform bill.”

    This is the only piece of legislation that has been offered up that actually matters.

  101. 101.

    liberal

    July 21, 2009 at 4:55 pm

    @flukebucket:

    the Balko challenge

    LOL! Why should we care what a bunch of crypto-feudalists think?

  102. 102.

    Erik Vanderhoff

    July 21, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    This is bullshit.

    Not true entirely true. Those of us who pay in to CalPERS (this can include other public employees, such as municipal government, police, school districts, and some non-profits, like Regional Centers) do not necessarily pay FICA taxes. At least, that’s according to my July 15th pay stub, which, much like all my stubs since 2006 had no FICA deductions. Also, if you worked the requisite number of quarters and paid into Social Security before or after your CalPERS-eligible job, you can receive both.

    (I’m at UC Davis).

    Woo! Represent!

    My wife works at UC Fullerton

    Then she works at a university that doesn’t exist… You sure she doesn’t work at CSU Fullerton instead? =)

  103. 103.

    liberal

    July 21, 2009 at 5:03 pm

    @Svensker:

    My little town is a) little and b) ridiculously safe, and average police salary is $100K. Not sustainable.

    Here in Montgomery County, MD (right next to DC), the Wash Post has reported on cops retiring with very sweet disability packages because of “injuries.” Some of these guys took cop jobs in other places; one guy did so and competed in some kind of fitness competition, despite being “disabled.”

  104. 104.

    Laura W

    July 21, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    @Brick Oven Bill:

    They still get their by-weekly checks.

    It’s “biweekly”, Bill.
    Think “bisexual”.
    Please let’s not fight.

  105. 105.

    Llelldorin

    July 21, 2009 at 5:24 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    Fullerton is CSU, not UC. If you’re not from California, you might not realize that we have two entirely separate state university systems–the University of California (Research I, Ph.D. granting institutions), and the California State University (Research II, Master’s degree only).

    It’s a really good system (speaking as an alumnus of UCSB, SFSU, and UC Berkeley, for various degrees), and is part of the reason for California’s extreme success in high-tech in the past. (The CSU pumps out a LOT of trained engineers, which makes it really easy to find employees in the state.) Naturally, the Republicans have been dying to destroy it for years.

  106. 106.

    Erik Vanderhoff

    July 21, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    @Llelldorin:

    It can be confusing to some. I received my Bachelor’s from a UC, and my Master’s from a CSU. I would be the first to say that my Master’s degree program wasn’t as challenging as I’d hoped it would be, but I really don’t have any experience at alternative programs to stack it against, so I can’t say if that’s standard for CSUs or for my degree program in particular. I’d say I’m just as well-prepared and studied as my colleagues at work with identical master’s degrees coming out of UC Berkeley. I can say for sure that the CSU was a damn good financial decision; it costs much less than the UCs.

  107. 107.

    Llelldorin

    July 21, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    @Erik Vanderhoff:

    There’s a completely different focus. UC tends to focus on “traditional” graduate students: 22-year-olds who just got their BS or BA, and want to move on to a Ph.D. program. CSU tends to focus on older students making career changes or picking up professional degrees.

    I went to SFSU for a MA at the age of 27, which made me one of the younger of the graduate students in my department. I then went on to Berkeley for my Ph.D. program at 29, which made me one of the oldest graduate students there.

    Yes, CSU programs tend to be easier than UC ones, but it’s hard to match them up directly because of the entirely different student bodies.

    Entirely out of curiosity, which CSU, and which program?

  108. 108.

    Erik Vanderhoff

    July 21, 2009 at 6:31 pm

    @Llelldorin

    I received my MSW from San Jose State University (I too went back, at 24). I’d say the program was completely indistinguishable from San Francisco State’s and — with the exception of the policy track at Berkeley — not really inferior to Cal’s.

    You make a good point regarding the distinctions between the two. If I ever decide to go back to school, I have my eye on Cal’s PhD programs in either Public Policy or Social Welfare.

  109. 109.

    Comrade Kevin

    July 21, 2009 at 6:49 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    No, it isn’t. Did you read any of the above posts?

    Yes.

    This statement of yours:

    One of the many scary things about CALPERS’ decline is the fact that participants are locked in to it for their retirement. They cannot collect Social Security even if they wanted to.

    is 100% false. I gave you an example. If you are going to continue to insist that it is true, I will have to conclude that you are not mistake, but lying.

  110. 110.

    Llelldorin

    July 21, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    @Erik Vanderhoff:

    Ah, interesting.

    The difference was most apparent when dealing with my children. At SFSU, it was simply expected that student might have children, and there was tremendous institutional support for dealing with them. At Berkeley, there was an odd “we’ll do everything we can to help you graduate, despite having ruined your life by getting pregnant” flavor to the child services.

    I don’t know much about the School of Social Welfare at Berkeley or at SFSU (both universities are enormous, and I’m in mathematics, so I didn’t have much cause to interact with them).

  111. 111.

    mai naem

    July 21, 2009 at 11:16 pm

    I am wondering how many people are going to come out this recession like the people who came out of the depression stuffing money in their mattress.

    I am amazed at the number of comments here critical of civil servants and their “sweet” pension plans. Excuse me, these people have to work for decades to get their pension plans. I have been hearing about the enormous annual bonuses at Goldman Sachs, Lehman and Bear Stearns for years. More money that a lot of these civil servants will see during their whole retirement. These are the same people who take their money offshore to escape taxes. They structure the compensation to minimize taxes. The civil servants never get an opportunity to pull that crap. When Goldman pays less in taxes than Blankfein makes, you know the system is majorly screwed.

  112. 112.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 21, 2009 at 11:48 pm

    @Dennis-SGMM:

    Not true. I’m a CalPERS retiree and will be collecting my Social Security in about 3 years.

  113. 113.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 22, 2009 at 12:58 am

    @Erik Vanderhoff:

    Aren’t you a member of UCRP?

    A family member is a member of UCRP and will not be receiving Social Security benefits.

  114. 114.

    mclaren

    July 22, 2009 at 1:38 am

    Police officers in California are also wildly overpaid. The starting salary for a police officer in San Diego clocks in at just slightly under $60,000. That’s for a 20-year-old taser-happy goof-off with 2 years of junior college who spent his high school years setting cats on fire and dunking freshmen’s heads in toilets.

    Spend a couple of years on the job eating donuts, and you’re raking in more than $70,000 as a police officer in San Diego. That’s insane. For comparison, that’s almost as much money as a full tenured professor in the California state university system makes.

    You tell me — which job requires more skills? A full tenured professor? Or some clown with a taser who spends his days parked caddycorner from a stop sign to write tickets on people who come to a rolling stop?

    It’s unbelievable that some of the kooks on this website actually have the gall to defend these overpaid underqualified no-talent no-skill clowns in blue uniforms on the basis that (get this) “Goldman Sachs traders made even more.”

    So what? Bill Gates made even more last year than the Goldman Sachs traders. That’s like defending a rapist because “Buono and Bianchi were even worse.” Just because a handful of extreme cases represent a wild exception to the norm isn’t a valid argument for overpaying some uneducated clown with straight Ds in high school (check out the guy who posted as “guard” — he couldn’t even spell Richard Ramirez’s name correctly, and this illiterate fool probably pulls in well over $100,000 a year) and 2 years of junior college for walking down a prison hallway rattling the bars of prisoners’ cells with their nightsticks. Any jerkoff can do that. Being a prison guard should pay $19,000 a year max. Doesn’t require any skill, doesn’t require any talent, doesn’t require any qualifications other than a willingness to beat someone up for giving you some lip. The average high school bully qualifies. The kids hanging out behind the 7-11 stealing skateboards from junior high schoolers qualify.

    It’s insane. Police officers and prison guards in California are not just overpaid, they’re wildly overpaid, grotesquely overpaid, outrageously overpaid, obscenely overpaid.

    As for the plaintive yelps of the foolish naifs like the commenter “sparky” who claimed

    i think what many commenters here are missing is that pensions cannot and will not be cut. if CALPERS or whoever loses money that money MUST be made up by the general public in the form of taxes

    …

    …Boy, are you going to get an education. When the money runs out, that’s it. Unlike the federal government, the states can’t print money. In the current financial environment, California’s state and municipal bonds are worth about as much as toilet paper. So where, exactly, will the state of California dredge up the cash to pay for all those lavish pensions?

    Reality trumps legality. When the state of California goes bankrupt and the California state government offices shut down because there isn’t enough money to keep the lights on and the water running and the state vehicles fueled with gasoline, I guaran-frigiggn’-tee you that the state of California will suddenly discover a miraculous new legal doctrine which allows them to re-negotiate all those supposedly “graven in stone” state pension benefits.

  115. 115.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 22, 2009 at 2:30 am

    @Llelldorin:

    I dunno, I went through the UC system – undergrad and law school – as a single parent, and I found them pretty helpful and accomodating.

  116. 116.

    Llelldorin

    July 22, 2009 at 10:37 am

    @Zuzu’s Petals:

    Interesting. It may just have been my campus/department (I wasn’t hugely impressed by required classes starting 30 minutes before campus daycare, for example.)

    I suppose that in any system as big as the UC I shouldn’t make hasty generalizations.

  117. 117.

    robert gentz

    July 22, 2009 at 11:57 am

    First thing Bush did as gov of Tx was to invest the Public Employees Pension Fund in Carlyle Capital, a sub of the real Bush family business of the war for profit, Carlyle Group. Carlyle Capital was the first big domino to fall in summer of 2007 when it defaulted on $21 bil knocking the props out from under Bear Stearns. Don’t worry, the Pension Guaranty Trust Fund is only about 5 times as overcommitted as the individual pension funds. Remember Gore wanted to purt Social Security in a “lock box” and bush wanted to give it to Bernie Madoff. Obama’s face on a food stamp gonna look pretty good when it takes a hundred Geo Wash’s to buy the same thing.

  118. 118.

    Erik Vanderhoff

    July 22, 2009 at 12:30 pm

    @Zuzu’s Petals:

    No, I don’t work for the University of California, but for another state-funded system that has me paying into CalPERS instead of Social Security. I went to UCD for my undergrad and absolutely loved it. A friend there who had a child while in school found UCD’s professors and staff very accommodating.

  119. 119.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 22, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    @Llelldorin:

    Well the law schools certainly have their share of folks getting diplomas with kids in their arms … another example of an older demographic, I guess

  120. 120.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 22, 2009 at 12:43 pm

    @Erik Vanderhoff:

    Ah, another Aggie undergrad here.

  121. 121.

    Zuzu's Petals

    July 23, 2009 at 12:16 am

    @Llelldorin:

    PS, I realize my experience may have been different because my son was school-age … ie, afterschool care more of an issue than daycare. I was usually able to arrange my schedule so as to make the little league games, etc.

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