My friend Robert Harding has a very good-run down of the state of the special election in NY-23 (EDIT: this is the race to fill the Congressional seat vacated by John McHugh). In most ways, it looks like a fairly boring race and a tough one for Democrats. It features a fairly unknown moderate Democrat, Bill Owens, facing off against a moderate Republican Assemblywoman, Dede Scozzafava. The Republican has already sewn up the Independence party line (I will tell you more about the Independence party at some point — it’s quite a fascinating scam), and the Working Families party line is still up in the air. Third party lines play a big role in competitive New York State races. In that way and in others, this race is not typical of anything national and probably shouldn’t be seen as a harbinger of things to come in 2010.
But there’s also a third candidate on one of those nutty third party lines — Dan Doug Hoffman on the Conservative party line. In New York State, a reasonable number of the birther/teabagger types decide (not incorrectly) that the state Republican party is not far-right enough for them and join the Conservative party. They usually endorse Republican but not always. In 2006, one of the local Conservative county chairs wrote a letter to then-Congressman Jim Walsh explaining why they wouldn’t endorse him that concluded “so, in sum, Mr. Walsh, fuck you”; this also goes to show how crazy these people are. Scozzafava’s support for same sex marriage pretty much guaranteed a Conservative party challenger.
I suspect the party lacks political acumen for this (they once put my sister’s Social Studies teacher up for Congress), but if they play their cards right, they could make a big splash in NY-23 by playing the spoiler. I doubt Scozzafava will talk much about death panels and certificates of live birth, but there’s definitely a market for that stuff in the district, probably more in the rural “North Country” part of the district than in the southern part (where my parents live). If the Conservative party puts some effort into calling her a RINO and amping up teh crazy, they might be able to pull double digits in the race, which would certainly swing the race to Demorats and be both a scalp and a feather in the cap for the Conservative party. My guess is they’re too inept to pull this off, but it bears watching. And even a 5% showing for them could deliver the race to Democrats.
This is the one part of the race that may have national implications: it may be a measure of how much impact the lunatic fringe has on Republican primaries and campaign rhetoric in 2010. Most Republicans won’t see third party challengers, but they may get primary challenges from the right and, if these scare them enough, they may go all in with the teabagger rhetoric.
gizmo
Dede Scozzafavva? Sounds like she could be one of Mark Sanford’s Argentine hiking partners or something….
DougJ
Dede Scozzafavva? Sounds like she could be one of Mark Sanford’s Argentine hiking partners or something….
There are a lot of hard-to-pronounce Italian names in upstate New York.
burnspbesq
Refresh my recollection: this is the district that straddles I-81 and follows the St. Lawrence River north of Syracuse, correct? My guess is that socioeconomically it’s a lot like Washington County, where my dad comes from, yes?
Bob In Pacifica
DougJ,
I would love to hear about how third parties function in New York State. Growing up in New Jersey it always seemed so exotic.
If this existed in other places wouldn’t this encourage Dems to, say, seek out the Green Party endorsement in elections?
I would like it to be on record that I voted for a Dem for his/her socialist tendencies rather than for her/his reactionary tendencies.
PeakVT
According to comments on the linked post, Owens came out against the public option. WTF? Hellooooo, Dem insiders.
General Winfield Stuck
I t would be very rude of me to say I have no idea what this post is about, but I won’t cause DougJ has been rocking of late.
DougJ
Refresh my recollection: this is the district that straddles I-81 and follows the St. Lawrence River north of Syracuse, correct?
Yes. It also dips down into Madison County (where Oneida is).
DougJ
It would be very rude of me to say I have no idea what this post is about
It’s the race for the seat that McHugh vacated when he accepted the nomination to be Secretary of the Army.
PeakVT
NY-23.
Linkmeister
“they once put my sister’s Social Studies teacher up for Congress.”
You got somethin’ against Social Studies teachers, bub?
Linkmeister
I compliment you on the Dylan reference in the title. The teacher crack was just that, a joke.
DougJ
You got somethin’ against Social Studies teachers, bub?
No, but this guy was a nut.
JK
Girl From the North Country
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIYE7dqesL8
Brick Oven Bill
Do not fear the Teabaggers. The Constitution is good.
DougJ
If this existed in other places wouldn’t this encourage Dems to, say, seek out the Green Party endorsement in elections?
In practice, they have a mixed effect. The Working Families party pushes people to the left on economic issues, the Conservative party scares Republicans to move to the right, and the Independence party is a complicated scam.
MikeJ
I wish the threat of primaries or third parties would scare Demmocrats into representing their base.
Notorious P.A.T.
Oh brother.
JGabriel
Brick Oven Bill:
Fear them? I’m trying to figure out a way to make money off of them, the gullible freaks.
From what I’ve seen at Freeperville and sundry other Conservsites, I’m thinking a website called Guns&Credit.Com would be the best option.
.
JGabriel
@DougJ:
Yep, which is why, if they’re cross-endorsing, I usually vote for the Dem candidate via the Working Families or Green ticket.
.
West of the Cascades
This is Sherry Boehlert’s old seat, right? One of the last of the Republicans with a lot of common sense (as had my old representative in Ithaca, Amo Houghton). It would be a great irony if by delivering this seat to the Democrats the wingnuts succeeded in driving the GOP into 100% teabagitude.
DougJ
This is Sherry Boehlert’s old seat, right?
No, that’s NY-24. But Sherry’s district pre-2000 census had some overlap with it (Sherry used to be my parent’s rep).
mr. whipple
“My guess is they’re too inept to pull this off, but it bears watching. And even a 5% showing for them could deliver the race to Democrats.”
Um, you could help out. Like, a lot :)
Corner Stone
@Notorious P.A.T.:
Are you somehow not aware of all internet traditions?
Or are you looking askance at the contrivance?
Brick Oven Bill
Teabaggers will not accept 5 cigarettes in exchange for their participation in an event. This is as they have largely been tested by the bronze and iron ages. They are stalwart! They will also turn away those offering them $5, or a fifth.
However, I have found that they do tend to be drawn towards quality food.
Behold tonight’s pizza!
Do not fear the Teabagger. He is your friend. He understands and celebrates his Alinsky label. The Constitution is good. The Teabagger knows this. It makes him proud of his country.
chrome agnomen
said wha…?
geg6
OT, but I just read on FDL that Baucus had a weekend conference call with state Democratic leaders where he was pushed HARD on the public option and finally said he was for it. Has the thumb finally come out of the dike?
Saucy Sauce
Tim Walz of MN-1 was a high school social studies teacher prior to his surprise win in a fairly red district in 2006. Don’t knock the educator-to-Congress career path!
Corner Stone
Nick Lampson of TX CD-9 and then TX CD-22 was also a former HS educator. Taught science class I believe.
BB
I think DeDe is going to win this one. Owens might turn out to be another Scott Murphy, but he’s got a bit of ground to make up. But with the Conservatives ticked off, who knows.
If Scozzafava wins, this district is the simpler candidate for elimination after the census. She’s a moderate Rep. with few allies in the legislature, and it’s far easier to safely chop this district up than Chris Lee’s. IMO, this is the preferable outcome. Splitting up Lee’s voters could put us in the position of losing 1 or 2 districts if we ever see a bad year. Splicing up the 23rd is much safer.
Finally, I am thrilled to see how the GOP and the Village Priests at Politico spin this one. If Scozzafava wins, it’s a strong argument for running moderate, sane Republicans who reject the birther fringe. If she loses, Obama has gained us another seat and the wingnut’s inability to compromise plainly continues to sink the party.
Ailuridae
@geg6:
http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/7485
The diary is from montanamaven who is reputable.
WereBear
McHugh’s old district is the one my zip code would send me to unless I use the +4. Found this out during my email campaigns.
Can’t speak for areas farther south, but I live in a distinctly bifurcated area here in the Adirondack Park; nearly equal parts “granola munchers,” the artists, artisans, and urban refugees who line up with the true conservationists and nature lovers who are also natives, and then there’s the oldline Republicans, those NorthEastern type Republicans, who are still voting that way because the Crazy really hasn’t made its way this far north, and hasn’t actually penetrated their consciousness enough for them to not vote the way great grand-daddy always did.
So that’s how you get a Republican in favor of gay marriage and a wishy washy Democrat. It’s a fine line to walk to grab the most votes.
WereBear
And just as a side note: it’s been a heckuva long time since this remote corner of the state got noticed outside the county.
Heady stuff!
Ash Can
OT, but that master of the OT, BOB, reminded me — wasn’t there supposed to be some big ol’ happy-ass national teabaggery festival of some kind yesterday? I seem to recall August 22 being a date of some note among the batshits for some reason. Did anybody get surrounded?
JK
OT
FUCK the NY Yankees
burnspbesq
I think I’m done with baseball for this year. The gods have decided to fuck the Mets this year. Hitting into an unassisted triple play with the tying runs on base in the bottom of the ninth is an unmistakable sign that it’s not your year.
The comments at Albany Project made me crabby. More progressives who can’t seem to figure out that the entire country doesn’t look like Cambridge or Berkeley. There are large parts of this country where a progressive candidate cannot win. If you don’t want to hand those parts of the country to the Republicans, you run candidates that look like the districts, and hope that you can persuade them once they are in office.
Fuck purity, it’s time to govern like responsible adults. God knows the Republicans won’t.
Corner Stone
@burnspbesq: I would sympathize but with Bruntlett being an ex-Astro, and Lidge getting the save I’m just going to say, meh.
Plus Pedro…amirite? Pedro ftw?
Dude in Jersey
What a great performance by Johnny Cash with just the few words he was given. Poor Bob Dylan. It reminds me of B.B King singing with Bono; the two were just not in the same class.
Upstate
In Monroe County NY, the Independence Party is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican Party. Most IP voters are blissfully unaware of that fact.
Upstate
I should have added that most Monroe County Independence party voters believe the IP is the party of ‘Independents’. Nothing could be further from the truth here.