Leave it to the managing editor of a little newspaper, Bob Gorman of the Watertown Daily Times, to nail NY-23 in a way that the national media never could:
Despite the national media attention on Northern New York right now, we should all remember that the 23rd Congressional District has no great significance. And neither did Gettysburg. It’s just the place where the great armies met.
[…..]If Hoffman wins Tuesday, political analysts suggest there could be a 23-skiddoo, and our district might very well morph into the envisioned 33rd District in Texas.
The Watertown Daily Times in its stories and editorials has been trying to suggest there is an actual link between federal and local issues. But instead of learning about water level issues, for instance, Hoffman keeps channeling Ronald Reagan, while Armey says that local issues are “parochial,” and really not what Hoffman should be worrying about.
The Republican party has survived in New York State by focusing on local issues and eschewing most of the right-wing ideology that afflicts the national party. As a more-or-less lifelong New York State Democrat, I’ve nevertheless never had any great love for New York State Republican; they’re at least as corrupt as the state’s Democrats and, at least upstate, they’re a great deal nastier. But they’re not wingers, for the most part.
What happened in NY-23 is that a bunch of confederate pukes came in and told a perfectly nice, socially moderate, Republican Albany hack (and I mean that affectionately) to go get bent.
And, and as a New Yorker, that pisses me off.
Corner Stone
Came from where? If you mean Dick Armey then I’m pretty sure he isn’t polling at 33% of NY-23.
Seems to me Hoffman fits in pretty well in NY-23. Obviously.
Demo Woman
Doug, Hoffman appears to be just like my rep Price. Local issues be damn. The folks here don’t care though.
jwb
But will it piss off the Republicans and Independents in NY-23 now, and the rest of NY state in the future?
calipygian
I think the Tea Baggers at the national level are going to find out what the Club for Growth has been slow to learn – that the local favorite might be a hack, but they are OUR hack.
Scozzafava endorsing Owens (presumably with the blessing of the local GOP) is a “fuck you” back.
General Winfield Stuck
I think the correct Bj lingo is “puke funnels”, and I support your thinking here Dougj./
DougJ
Seems to me Hoffman fits in pretty well in NY-23. Obviously.
You do know I grew up in the district, right?
kommrade reproductive vigor
Now, now. The Daddy Party knows best.
The people of NY-23 had better eat their nice Neo-Conservative values all up, or they’ll be sent to bed with a fake dog turd from the Red State Strike Farce.
DougJ
But will it piss off the Republicans and Independents in NY-23 now, and the rest of NY state in the future?
Who knows what will happen on Tuesday, but in the future, this is awful news for New York State Republicans. State Republicans know this and part of what Scozzafava did in endorsing Owens was be a team player. I’m sure her buddies in Albany are shitting bricks about Hoffmania.
Brachiator
Very nice bit of writing. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Anoniminous
Yeah but at Gettysburg I’m fairly sure the Army of Northern Virginia didn’t have an all-out slug fest, bare knuckle brawl, fight-to-the-death battle with the Army of Northern Virginia.
The Army of the Potomac was involved to some small degree.
Also.
Too.
Corner Stone
@DougJ:
That’s fine.
Now explain why the handpicked nice hack got 20% of the poll and suspended her campaign while Hoffman is probably odds on to win the seat.
Don’t worry, I’ll wait.
Chuck Butcher
@DougJ:
I tried to throw some light on this in the previous, Cole, post. Working in State Parties isn’t something many people do.
Dan B
@kommrade reproductive vigor: A Hoffman loss on Tuesday might well cause the Strike Farce to send fake poop to every person in NY-23 for their part in failing to make Erick the Red State’s dreams come true.
Plus, a portion of each piece of fake poop sold helps support the Strike Farce!
MattF
I’d say that the Republicans in New York are looking at a precipitous decline, but I’m looking for a word that’s stronger than ‘precipitous’. I’m thinking ‘freefall’ and ‘Principle of Equivalence’. I.e., you think your feet are on the ground, but you are actually falling– and accelerating downwards at 32 feet/sec^2.
jcricket
The great thing for Dems is we now win no matter what happens. If Hoffman wins it’s the triumph of conservatism and let’s do this all the time! If Hoffman loses it’s because another Republican sold us out and we weren’t conservative enough with the RINO in the race early on!
No matter what happens, the wingnuts will end up emboldened. Again, they may win a few battles here and there (or a lot, in super red states), but they’re going to lose the war (70%+ of the House/Senate, the WH, most growing demographics, etc).
Sucks for those of you living in these places, but ultimately better for the nation to understand today’s Republicans are an intransigent, belligerent, ignorant, racist, homophobic, xenophobic, sexist, backwards-looking bunch of losers.
Republicans can either jettison these fools and (maybe) gain back many/all the so-called moderates/independents – or suck hard from the teat of wingnuttia and cement another 50 years of Democratic dominance.
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
Explaining that to you would depend on the extent of your political and electoral ignorance; it seems pretty extensive but I wouldn’t want to underestimate.
Do you know anything abour politcal polls or vote percentages in special elections? If you don’t, what that poll is about is meaningless noise in anything you have to say. Living in NY23 is scarcely required on that particular issue.
Anoniminous
@Corner Stone:
Because the glorious Army of Northern Virginia vows to defeat the vicious, cowardly, despicable Army of Northern Virginia by GOD!
This whole foo-foo is a GOP intra-party power struggle and cat fight. The NY-23 has been a Republican held seat since 1605. (or something) Nobody expected Owens to win. That he has a chance to win comes directly from the GOP intra-party power struggle and cat fight.
The Saff
@jcricket:
Chris Kofinis essentially said this to Lawrence O’Donnell Friday night on “Countdown.”
freelancer
@Dan B:
I’m considering quitting my office job, and becoming a novelty barker for Redstate.com, selling useless shit to morons so they can mail it to liberals and “moderates” in fits of purity rage.
“What’s that, Erick? Obama’s going to South Africa to attend the World Cup?”
“Soccer Balls! Get’cher soccer balls here! Mail them to the White House! Just 49.99 a ball and FREE shipping! ATTN: Redstaters! You can drown the Obamas in BALLS!”
Max
Mike Murphy knows better what those that live in NY-23 need.
Says him.
Scarborough Country echo’d similar sentiments on the Twitter.
Corner Stone
@Chuck Butcher: Chuck,
Your answer is nonsensical and irrelevant to my question to Doug.
The handpicked Republican suspended her campaign for *some* reason. It certainly wasn’t due to “confederate pukes” but rather her estimation that she couldn’t prevail, and or gather the funds needed to compete effectively. or maybe she was sleeping with Owens.
Point being, a whole hell of a lot of people in NY-23 are enthusiastic about Hoffman being in the race. For some reason. The Republican candidate saw that, or other factors, and suspended her campaign.
Now, I don’t live in NY-23 but it seems pretty clear to a complete fucking ignoramus like myself – but maybe she saw something you and Doug didn’t? Like maybe she wasn’t going to pull it off?
So, whatever the polling says to a numbnuts like myself – it sure as fuck said something to the party backed candidate now didn’t it?
So go fuck yourself.
Corner Stone
@freelancer: “Free Shipping”??
You godless communist! You are clearly not RedState Barker material!
Brachiator
@jcricket:
Democratic dominance is not a sure thing. As I pointed out in another thread, here in California, the gubernatorial hopes of Democratic favorite child Gavin Newsom have been dashed by a serious lack of interest. And this is a state that should be easy pickings for a Democratic resurgence after Der Guvernator’s trashing of the state economy.
If the Democrats cannot deliver on their major policy positions, especially if the economy remains stuck on neutral, the Republicans might find a glimmer of hope that could return them to power.
mistermix
What I really don’t get is the “anyone but Scozzfava” attitude in the wingnut media. (And I do think they are being honest when they say that an Owens win is almost as good as a Hoffman win.)
I think giving a centrist moderate like Owens a foothold in Ny-23 is a major loss for Republicans, because he’ll just have to make it through 2010 and then he’ll be redistricted into a slightly more favorable district. The notion that Hoffman or some other teabagger is an automatic win in 2010 in a head-to-head vs. Owens is very wishful thinking.
DougJ
Corner Stone — All I am saying is that the district’s views simply are not in line with Hoffman’s. That doesn’t mean they won’t get caught up in the iatropic excitement of voting for a teabagger this one time. But he’s not a good fit. Trust me.
Phoenix Woman
Thanks for this, Doug.
And really, the scary thing is that Hoffman may have been the lesser of two Con Party evils. Here’s the alternative:
Stay classy, guys! Now watch as Dede’s gang puts Owens over the top.
Max
Ruh roh! Megan McCain is worried about what NY-23 means for 2012. I can’t believe she hasn’t realized that she is a democrat.
http://twitter.com/McCainBlogette
freelancer
@Corner Stone:
Did you see how much I marked it up? It’s a marketing ploy. Buy a ton of Nerf soccer balls at $12 a pop, charge $50, and profit.
I am most certainly not a communist!
Phoenix Woman
@Corner Stone:
It probably doesn’t matter, as in three years the district’s going away anyway.
Just Some Fuckhead
@freelancer: I like to imagine one day Erickson grows up, develops some empathy and establishes a legion of do-gooders that identifies needy and deserving folks and sends them useful goods.
The Grand Panjandrum
@Max: McCain got her mother’s looks and her daddy’s intellectual chops.
@Just Some Fuckhead: All that rock salt sent to Snowe wasn’t a public works program to help the good people of Maine this winter?
Brachiator
@MattF:
NY-23 could be the greatest disaster since Wolf 359.
wobblybits
@DougJ: tee-hee ‘iatropic excitement’.
kommrade reproductive vigor
@Dan B: Plus, a portion of each piece of fake poop sold helps support
the Strike Farce^Erick Erickson and his massive … ego!Fxd.
The Strike Farce is the GOP in miniature. Some schmuck convinces the rubes that the only way they can be RealAmerican’s(TM) is to continually fork over their cash. In return they’ll get a warm feeling that they’re doing their patriotic duty. Smarty pants who ask why they can’t buy and ship their dog turds direct will be shushed, scolded and if necessary, cast out.
And yeah, there’s a reason it sounds like what goes on in TalEvangical churches.
But EE is a rank amateur compared to Wing Nut Daily.
I suppose there’s a slight possibility he’s less of a total dick.
sognforaday
The fact remains that Hoffman has enough support that he forced out a moderate GOP candidate. Dick Armey and the Teabaggers had help here. You can bring in a well funded carpetbagger, but if people don’t vote for him, then you achieve nothing.
…and yes Chuck, I know, that off elections like this the hardcore (e.g. Teabaggers) are over represented.
sognforaday
@Phoenix Woman:
I hope not. I’d love to see this juice up the teabaggers. Purge baby, purge!
Of course, I live about as far from that district as you can while still living in the continental US.
Corner Stone
@DougJ: That’s fine and dandy but you’re trying to explain away a significant number of potential voters by saying they were hoodwinked by damned dirty confederates. And maybe they were in an iatropic fit of excitement during polling. But maybe they really do want Hoffman. I guess we’ll see shortly.
You’re from there. Are they all as not bright as you?
Lavocat
Funny thing about us Upstaters. Nothing brings us together faster than outsiders (either Downstaters or out-of-staters) trying to tell us what to do.
The thing about Rockefeller Republicans, of which there are still many in Upstate, is that they are the older, practical version of Republicans, that many of us Democrats, liberals and otherwise, have learned to make peace with, and even come to respect.
NY-23 has come to represent, to many of us Upstaters, not merely a nice little political contest between local Dems and Reps, but a national battlefield.
Had Hoffman done all of this on his own, we could accept it and move on. But to see him acting as a quasi-carpet bagger whose water is being carried by the shithead national neo-cons, who are MUCH more to the right than our accepted Rockefeller Republicans, well, we won’t fucking stand for it.
I guess it’s sort of an old Yankee mentality (no, NOT the team): just leave us the fuck alone and we’ll do just fine. But if you want to make trouble, then trouble is what you’ll get.
Full disclocure: I’m not in NY-23, I’m in NY-20 (Scott Murphy’s district), but the mentality is the same in both districts. And both districts are overwhelmingly Republican.
General Winfield Stuck
I know nothing of NY 23, or about the race there. But this sort of thing will be attempted elsewhere. The reason is mid term elections are all about enthusiasm, and special elections in between mid terms and national elections it goes double for.
While it seems that the NY upstate ‘GOP beast is something along the lines of Rockefeller republicanism, there are tea bagger types in about all corners of the union. And no one denies they are fired up, bring in some Confederate Puke Funnel activists and they get fired up some more, and maybe even sway some ordinarily NE moderate type conservatives to at least consider voting for the tea bag wingnut.
Chuck is right that polling for an election is about useless. I don’t know why the State GOP candidate dropped out, maybe it was because of the vitriol from the puke funnel wingnuts, or that the best way to beat Hoffman was doing just what she did, drop out and support the dem, which kind of speaks volumes in and of itself.
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
So you’re mad at me because you’re ignorant and ask questions rudely as though you do know something?
Let’s start out with political polls, just to reward you’re childish stupidity. The first relevant question is whether you’re voting or not (or chances of) the next is who your likely support goes to. If you’re real serious you ask how wedded to your choice you are. This will give you a snapshot at that time and some trends if you’ve been polling the same thing repeatedly. It isn’t the CD votership as a whole compared to a General Election.
The next question involves electoral demographics, special elections are almost always very low turn out and that can be aggravated by other circumstances – rarely alleviated by other. Low turn-out elections have their own peculiar demographics, most broadly the turn out is dominated by the dedicated base for the issue or seat. This should have been an extremely low turn-out election as a “gimme” for Cazzafava. You now have a base turn-out for Hoffman and possibly Owens, Cazzafava fares very poorly in this scenario. Cazzafava’s turn-out in a General would be different and that was the aim of the NY GOP not this stupidity – one year is small beer, 6 or 8 full terms is something else in their calculations, now overturned.
You read something into this poll that isn’t there and scoff at DougJ as though what he knows isn’t what it is. I’ve sat here an typed a bunch and haven’t even begun to cover it at even a remedial level – addressing what you don’t know as evidenced by your question would take a shit load.
so…? Fuck me?
General Winfield Stuck
@General Winfield Stuck:
Should be “this” election.
calipygian
@Chuck Butcher: I wouldn’t bother.
The Troll-Fu stink is strong with that Corner Stone one.
West of the Cascades
NY 23 = Gettysburg
Dede = Longstreet (reluctant warrior)
Hoffman = Pickett (mindless ideologue leading his troops to disaster)
Owens = Hancock/Meade (sits on top of the hill and watches the disarray on the other side, blasting away as necessary).
Not perfect analogies …
Upstate NY has had some decent (in the “decency” sense of the word) Republican congressmen within living memory – Amo Houghton and Sherry Boehlert both were well removed from the wingnut wing of the GOP. Jack Kemp had his faults but actually gave a damn about trying to solve poverty and provide affordable housing and improving race relations (his supply side prescriptions were off base, but they weren’t cynical). Their kind seems to be a dead species, whether or not Hoffman wins the election on Tuesday – Hoffman’s kind is now the future of the GOP, even in NY.
Lavocat
@ General Winfield Stuck:
What should’ve been an under-the-radar little race has really caught fire. This race has the potential to radicalize the electorate here in Upstate. Dems have really dug in hard Upstate of late and Rockefeller Republicans don’t seem to know whether to shit or go blind.
Some of the Republicans seem to be walking around in a daze. I get a lot of “who the fuck do these people think they are!?” from older Republican friends.
It’s almost like the more moderate Republicans thought this was all a fucking game for the longest time and now that reality has hit close to home, they can no longer maintain their cognitive dissonance and denial.
This could prove to have been a masterstroke by Obama. He knows New York – even Upstate – is a Blue State and that our Republicans are much more moderate than Republicans elsewhere.
This has the potential to turn a lot of Republicans into both Independents and reluctant Democrats.
I’d really be interested in seeing what the 40 and under demographic is in the NY-23 election. My guess is that the RNC has alienated a lot of people. Hell, even the older voters are annoyed. And given the Dem is basically a Blue Dog Dem, I think a lot of Rockefeller Republicans could rationalize a vote for him and hold their nose and pull the handle for him.
And I would’ve loved to have personally bitchslapped that asshole Texan, Armey. Fucking talk smack on our turf, will ya! Oh no you didn’t!
DougJ
But maybe they really do want Hoffman.
No one votes in these things, so I don’t think that what happens on Tuesday is any measure of what a typical district member wants. If Hoffman wins, say, three terms, then I’ll change my mind.
General Winfield Stuck
@West of the Cascades:
Actually, that was on General Lee, he insisted Pickett charge against Pickett’s dissent. Afterward, when it was a massacre, he said something like, “that old man had my troops murdered”
But I know what your saying using Pickett and Gettysburg as a metaphor.
Upper West
West of the Cascades —
What about Gerry Solomon (whose district included part of NY-23, I believe prior to redistricting)?
Chuck Butcher
@calipygian:
Actually I probably should have in the first place. I’m up to my ears in this shit and it is easy for me to forget that people who aren’t don’t really know much about how it works – other than who won after the count.
I’ve tried to touch on this intelligently in two separate posts, this kind of thing has real political meaning beyond who wins the 1 yr. It’s a lot of fun to speculate on how a Hoffman win would work poorly or how their perceived win at this will over amp the ‘baggery bunch.’ That’s just a part of it. Since I don’t work in the NY GOP Party I don’t know how badly this will play there – but it won’t be anything like good. I know about the egos, favors, etc that operate in State Party politics. This could be real bad down in the trenches of the State Party.
A State Party isn’t a mirror of the general voters, but they are important in State politics, they are experienced and they have built relationships – bad things to throw away. This kind of thing alienates the hell out of them. The RNC will try to put as good a face on this as they can, but I’ll tell you that if there isn’t serious heartburn there – they’re idiots. If you’re in doubt – think FL Primary…
Chuck Butcher
@Chuck Butcher:
shit, ’08 FL {D} Primary.
kay
@General Winfield Stuck:
But if she wanted to support the Dem she should have rebelled 24 hours earlier and stayed in. Deny Hoffman 20% of the GOP vote and the Democrat (might) win. She gets her revenge and her bigger goal is served: she marginalizes tea baggers. What’s the point of rebelling now? A day-late rebellion is just stupid.
Now she loses twice. I don’t think it makes any sense. Republicans are all crazy as hell. All of them.
General Winfield Stuck
@General Winfield Stuck:
Actually, General Lee could end up being Dickhead Armey, tea bag Generalisimo, if it all goes sideways.
Warren Terra
I like the Blue/Gray meme.
We can refer to Erick’s GrayState, and inform Obama that while he said in 2004 “there are no red states and no blue states” there apparently are blue states and gray states.
Llelldorin
The funny thing is that what Corner Stone is saying isn’t actually incompatible with what DougJ is saying–but he doesn’t seem to realize that.
When we say that a district is a “moderate Republican district,” we don’t mean that there aren’t sizable numbers of much more conservative Republicans living in the district. If a district is 35% extremely conservative and 25% socially moderate surburbanites, it’s an overwhelmingly Republican district as long as the two groups stick together.
The problem (from the GOP point of view) is that there’s obviously room in the Democratic party now for socially moderate but economically conservative voters, much as they irritate those of us who live further left. If the Republican Party goes out of its way to demonstrate that social moderates aren’t welcome in that party, they’ll migrate and become blue dogs instead of mod-cons.
The fact that Scozzafava was polling at “road kill” levels compared to Hoffman doesn’t mean that this isn’t a moderate district. It just means that the arch-cons aren’t willing to play ball with mod-cons anymore.
General Winfield Stuck
@kay:
Like I said, I know nothing of this district, but it appears she thought she could get her mod 20 percent gooper supporters to actually vote for Owens and put him over the top. I guess we’ll find out Tuesday.
kay
@General Winfield Stuck:
I guess. Maybe she saw it really tanking and thought she could hold her 20% and send them over. I’m biased, because I’m a feminazi, but she was treated really shabbily by Hoffman. He’s an ungracious prick. Maybe there will be some backlash from women voters. I can hope!
Women voters let me down with alarming regularity, so don’t count on it.
Anoniminous
@kay:
She had her political life on the line in this election. Rarely does a candidate come back from this kind of rejection by her district. Before the wackos jumped out of the woodwork she had every expectation of a long Congressional career. That’s a hard thing for a pol to abandon.
Now it’s a good question if she will even keep her Assembly seat or want to keep her seat.
HRA
“What happened in NY-23 is that a bunch of confederate pukes came in and told a perfectly nice, socially moderate, Republican Albany hack (and I mean that affectionately) to go get bent.”
Even in my town/village here in WNY, they are moderate Rockefeller Republicans. You won’t find any teabaggers here unless they are brought in. No one wears their political affiliation where it can be seen. Yet, we know this town/village is predominantly moderate Republican for generations and Obama won here.
General Winfield Stuck
@kay:
Though I looked, I couldn’t find the article I read this morning about threats to her and her family. But Lavacat gives a good description of the district and it’s goopers./ I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if it backfires on them.
And I don’t agree that it would be a good thing for this tea bagger to win. It may set in motion good things for dems down the road, but I want these nasty asshats to lose, today, tomorrow, and ALWAYS.
Corner Stone
@Chuck Butcher: I’m not mad at you about much of anything except you focused on one half of my question to Doug – the part about the polling.
The second half of my question was this :
“and suspended her campaign while Hoffman is probably odds on to win the seat.”
I appreciate your information regarding how polls are set up.
I think it seems pretty clear that Doug is saying in his Op-Ed that something wrong happened in NY-23. Some outside influence came along and jiggered things in a way that shouldn’t be. And maybe that’s so.
But, it seems very clear to me that you can’t make people vote, or indicate they will vote, for some one they don’t really want to. (And yes, I am aware of all the polling and sampling error theories. Halo Effect, Bradley Effect, etc. Not relevant to this election).
So, it also seems pretty clear that the Republican candidate saw something to the magnitude she so did not like that she suspended her campaign a week before the election. This wasn’t due to Dick Armey. Her campaign must have seen real numbers, real data that told her it was over. That means people not contributing to her election effort at a pace they expected, and probably also internal polls showing she wasn’t going to make the cut.
So to sum up, Hoffman may or may not be the right person for NY-23, and this one special election may or may not say anything at all about NY-23 in the long term. But, I think it’s pretty clear that from what we can observe enough people in NY-23 want Hoffman to run right here and now.
Whether he wins or not is TBD, but whatever the Republican hack candidate saw was good enough for her. IMO she didn’t drop out because she thought she couldn’t beat Owens all by herself.
And that was pretty much my whole point.
Anoniminous
@General Winfield Stuck:
Pickett was all gung-ho to have a whack at the blue-bellies. Longstreet, Pickett’s Corp Commander, was the one who was against the attack and argued against it until Lee told him to shut up and Get On with it.
General Winfield Stuck
@Anoniminous:
I stand corrected. But Pickett did say Lee had his men “murdered”
DougJ
I’ve tried to touch on this intelligently in two separate posts, this kind of thing has real political meaning beyond who wins the 1 yr. It’s a lot of fun to speculate on how a Hoffman win would work poorly or how their perceived win at this will over amp the ‘baggery bunch.’ That’s just a part of it. Since I don’t work in the NY GOP Party I don’t know how badly this will play there – but it won’t be anything like good. I know about the egos, favors, etc that operate in State Party politics. This could be real bad down in the trenches of the State Party.
What you said in John’s post is exactly right — Scozzafava wouldn’t have endorsed Hoffman without some kind approval from other state Republicans. And a lot of that is going to be motivated by self-interest (some may be that the teabaggers genuinely frighten them in terms of their views, too).
Obviously, this is bad for the NYS GOP.
Corner Stone
@Llelldorin:
But this isn’t what we are discussing. Clearly a CD can be an mix or recipe of many different aspects, and when banded together they can pick and choose whoever they feel best represents the predominate interests.
But that isn’t what happened here. The Mod R went head to head with the Cons R because the Cons R refused to band together.
Doug says this was an outsiders war, and I say fine I agree! But outsiders can’t get so many people so enthusiastic about the Cons R and so disenthusiastic about the Mod R unless that’s how they really feel!
*Something* caused the Mod R to go away. That is all I am saying.
Corner Stone
@calipygian: I don’t know why you would say this.
I asked Doug a legit question and was called ignorant and/or childish for wondering why someone *actually* in the race chose to drop out. I didn’t care for that.
Just because someone front pages an opinion does not make it accurate.
Anoniminous
@General Winfield Stuck:
Didn’t mean it as a “correction.” I could
blather onbore you to tearstalk about Gettysburg for-ever. ;-)One interesting thing is both sides mis-used their artillery. The Confederates blithely bombarded the rear areas of II corp and Hancock, over-riding the A of P artillery commander, told his gunners to bang away before the attack instead of waiting until the infantry mounted their charge, came out in the open. Both sides basically hit nothing of importance.
West of the Cascades
@General Winfield Stuck: I think only AFTER being all gung ho to attack the Yankees, and then going FAIL up Cemetery Ridge, Pickett whined that it had been a mistake (I think the exchange after the charge has come down in history as: Lee: “General Pickett, you must look to your division” – Pickett: “General Lee, I have no division.”)
Again the analogy isn’t perfect, but wait and watch Hoffman (and his confedernazi teabag supporters) blame everyone but himself/themselves if they don’t win Tuesday.
West of the Cascades
@Anoniminous:
gosh, sounds like
Confederate artillery = Glenn Beck
Anoniminous
@General Winfield Stuck:
Forgot to add:
Yup, and he was right. That attack … after Fredricksburg, for god’s sake … should never have been made.
The entire history of the Civil is frontal attacks against entrenched infantry repulsed with staggering losses of the attackers. Grant at Cold Harbor is another example.
General Winfield Stuck
@Anoniminous:
It was a correction that needed to be made.:-)
I once studied civil war battles, but it’s been so long, I’ve forgot most of it.
DMac
@Lavocat: I’m in Massa’s district. Same here. This district turfed out a neocon (Kuhl) last November.
General Winfield Stuck
Grant was a bloody motherfucker, but he knew he could wear down the south and Lee with superior resources in a war of attrition, and he wasn’t worried about using and soiling Mcclellan’s pretty Army.
Gawd, I hope I got that right.
Anoniminous
@West of the Cascades:
I see your point. (LOL)
The major difference is those gunners weren’t WATB.
calipygian
I walked the battlefield at Antetim a few months ago and there were a couple of places there, particularly at a bridge over the creek, where if I were a Union infantryman i probably would have said “Fuck this!” and fragged my brigade commander.
Just Some Fuckhead
They came in and trashed the place and it wasn’t their place.
southpaw
I disagree that the polling is useless. I don’t have much doubt that Hoffman has ~35% support among likely voters in the district, not counting those that prefer Scozzafava or Owens. Around here, we call that greater wingnuttia, and it can be found pretty much everywhere (esp. where they raise cattle or host military bases). I also don’t doubt that Owens’ support in the three-way race was around 36%. The genuine uncertainty, and what makes ny-23 so interesting, is which way Scozzafava’s ~23% will jump. No one can confidently forecast that, and it makes all the difference.
DougJ’s point, I think, is valid. In the past, the moderate, venal R’s had the whip hand; they chose the nominees upstate and, largely, got them elected. Now, the confederate pukes of wingnuttia have denied them their choice, and they’re at a crossroads. If they go along and elect Hoffman, the wingnuts will be empowered and we’ll see how well they do. If they get pissed and jump to Owens, the NY Republicans will face the question of whether to live in the fever swapms or fight their own base to get back to the center.
Anoniminous
@General Winfield Stuck:
No harm, no foul then. ;-)
Got it exactly right re: Grant. Lincoln knew it would take somebody willing to accept the deaths it would take to end that nightmare. McClellan couldn’t face it. Grant could and did. Tho’ he did ‘fess up to making a mistake at Cold Harbor.
Funny – as in “unexpected by most people” – thing. The largest number of deaths in the Union armies during the Civil War was from disease, not combat.
General Winfield Stuck
@West of the Cascades:
If they lose, who will take odds it’ll take Malkin et al less than 24 hours to blame ACORN and it’s puppetmaster Chairman Obama?
Anoniminous
@calipygian:
The bizarre thing is: the Generals didn’t learn. They were STILL making frontal attacks against entrenched infantry with machine guns (!) in World War I.
Anyway. I’m contributed enough to thread drift.
Me shut up.
AhabTRuler
This was the case for all wars prior to the Russo-Japanese War.
kommrade reproductive vigor
@General Winfield Stuck: Hours? They’ll push that shit so fast the posts will appear before the final results are in.
kay
@General Winfield Stuck:
I didn’t see anything about threats. I’m just talking about what a complete ass Hoffman was when she dropped out. His statement is all vitriol and hate.
I would think if he wanted her supporters, and she did have supporters, he would be less of a jerk. She’s the well-known local, and she conceded, in a big, public falling on her sword way.
It seems mean-spirited to run around crowing 30 seconds after her announcement, almost goading her into endorsing the Democrat.
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
Yes, outsiders can badly skew an election that has reason to be a low turn-out election. They can bury candidates/issues under an avalanche of money, they can turn undecideds off – either to not vote or vote against something they ordinarily would leave alone. They can amp up a portion of the electorate that cannot decide an ordinary election while the other side doesn’t have the tools to amp up the one who would ordinarily.
These freaking small turn out elections have a real potential to turn into complete anomalies and they can seriously screw the works when it comes to getting something serious done.
There are outcomes from this election that are way way out of proportion to what is being decided. It is a one year seat for a Party that has a meaningless minority in the House, it shouldn’t mean shit. Very bad things are going to happen to the organized NYRP. Other seats are going to be affected by Primary challenges and very possibly decided to the deficit of the GOP in Generals. National policy points are likely to be misread/misinterpreted by influential voices.
Goddam, I’m a lefty D and I vastly prefer what of my vision the D offers, but a malfunctioning opposition that operates off bad information is bad for the fucking country and the worse it gets the worse it is for the country. It also is bad for the D to wind up sucking up too much of the oppostion as an operative part of the structure. You do not want the D Party trying to acclimate to even more ship deserting R rats than it already does, do you? You also should know what happens to parties that aren’t under pressure from an opposition party, it tends to be bad.
Yes, I am saying that both parts of your questions missed the point, that in fact in the face of how these things work they are not just wrong in their thrust, but even as having meaning. You still seem to think that you’re referencing a meaningful portion of the electorate in some sense other than this very narrow one off election. They aren’t, in that CD or NY as a whole, they’re a loon fringe getting their way this time. I’d say that regardless of the political stripe, though it’s damn unlikely to happen on the left. I want these idiots discredited as a political force – not enhanced and particularly not stupidly (and count on the MSM to do so)
jwb
@Anoniminous: I think this comes under the rubric of when your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. I think frontal attack and cutting supply lines (siege and/or blockade) were really the only options to effectively dislodge an entrenched enemy.
ChrisB
@calipygian: Like the sunken road, for example.
jcricket
@Brachiator: Uh, there’s another Dem running for Governor, no? Jerry Brown? I hear he’s polling pretty well, and getting all the money from the Dem establishment.
Note I didn’t say “liberal dominance” – but I think Republicans are pretty close to throwing all the non-white, non-Christians out of their party. This includes gays, asians, hispanics, jews, blacks, a good proportion of women – and then a majority of all whites under 30.
This doesn’t mean Gavin Newsom or Russ Feingold’s the next President. Just that Democrats can win simply by not losing (at least for a while).
General Winfield Stuck
@kommrade reproductive vigor:
I try to take the low road when soliciting marks.
General Winfield Stuck
@kay:
Yes, yes, I agree Kay 110 percent, They are assholes, the lot of them. Please don’t harangue me, pretty please :)
Chuck Butcher
Look, regarding polls – the sampling techniques tend to produce good numbers. What matters is what was asked and how; and knowing what the questions mean when looking at the numbers. You can get good numbers for really retarded questions, there’s just no useful information. You have to understand what the poll is actually measuring – in this case it is measuring the opinion of a small part of the actual electorate – because it is designed to do just that, the number who will vote in this election. That number is small, period. Your picture is valid but it is only valid regarding this one-off small turn out election. These elections tend toward turnout percentages that are shockingly low, 30% of electorate isn’t uncommon, that means that 15%+1 wins. Scazzafava didn’t misread a poll or depend on a bad one, I’m saying you’re misreading it.
Once the outsiders jumped in with bucks and an energized small base Scazzafava was screwed. She never had the bucks, nobody saw a reason to do so, especially the RNC. It was a no-brainer gimme. When you have a lame brain like David Gregory manage to characterize this as a mess, boy is it.
If you get a loon into office in one of these, it can be a real bitch to get them out. You start getting Party loyalty votes for that candidate from people who don’t even want what they have to offer other than the (X). Primaries are bad for turn-out as well so incumbency really helps there.
Corner Stone
@Chuck Butcher:
Nope. I’m not, and I don’t think I am. I understand what you’re saying about the big picture, I get what you mean about big outcomes and repercussions, and I totally see what you mean about lots of money/energy/influence burying *real* issues in short outcome/low turnout elections.
I understand all that. And I also agree completely with what Doug said about long term fit for the CD.
My whole point, something I have thus far failed to spell out clearly is that something *right now* is happening in NY 23, the Repub candidate saw it and has suspended her campaign and it can’t all be just outside confederates.
Yes they can amp up a few believers and skew things – I agree. But we seem to be talking about a significant number of people and from all the deadtree media I have seen and read (yes, I read things not on the tubes. I have 2 friends in Watertown and 1 at RIT.), this isn’t just a few people.
Listen, this election may not mean anything *real* about NY 23, I grant that, and it may be HUGE for NYS, ok fine, I’m just saying I disagree that it’s all due to outside influence.
That’s all. Scozzafava suspended her campaign and i think it’s due to internal numbers as much as outside influence.
That’s all I’ve been saying. There’s something there.
That’s what I’m saying.
I’m not saying anything about nationwide polling or how NYS comes back after this, or how the D party sucks up the ex-repub leftovers or what happens in 10 years.
Right now in NY 23 something is happening.
calipygian
@ChrisB:
I stood there in the sunken road, trying to imagine I was a Confederate infantry man, waiting to see the Union colors just peek over the ridge so I could just rip into them.
Then I got up into the observation tower just off the sunken road and tried to imagine it waist deep in blood and gore.
WTF.
terry chay
@Corner Stone:
You’re smug attitude belies deep ignorance so this reply is probably wasted.
Just because someone is polling at 20% and someone else is polling at 33% doesn’t mean that the latter is more popular or desired than the former. All polling takes into account some sort of secret-sauce likely voter model and, being a special election, that has a huge impact as most people in the district won’t vote at all.
The fact that a candidate can win with a plurality in this election makes it even more sticky, since the Median Voter Theorem is unstable in a three-way election.
There is a huge amount of anecdotal evidence that states that Hoffman’s views are not popular with the median voting age person in NY-22 but that his views and the amount of money and attention that has been put into the race by outsiders has, in fact, meant that the voters that have his views will be driven to the polls. Given that almost everyone agrees that Scozzofava sits between Hoffman and Owens, her position is highly unstable.
NY-22 is a conservative district, and the Democratic Party in congress is in a nadir (because UHC hasn’t passed, the economic turnaround hasn’t reached any of the people in upstate, etc.). In a normal election, Scozzafava sits much closer to the views of the Mean Voter than either of the other two candidates.
And yet, all the polls will discount that (correctly) because the mean voter isn’t going to the polls to vote for a special election like this. Those passionate enough to vote this time are going to be on the extremes here (or at least closer to either Owens or Hoffman).
And this analysis is done with the first blush, first-term Poly-Sci/Game Theory way.
I’m not even talking agenda setting, which clearly the Conservative party controlled going into this race, or multi-issue games, or other sort of more advanced topics, because, quite frankly, they’re not needed. The first approximation answers your question adequately.
In any case, this is not good for the Republican party (or what’s left of it) in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Having grown up under many such Republicans (Heinz, Thornburgh, Specter, etc.) I empathize about the dying sort of conservatism endemic in that area in ways that you, obviously, cannot.
sognforaday
@Corner Stone:
because that’s the standard answer when someone pops up with an opinion that differs from the rest of the CW in a thread.
sognforaday
@terry chay:
pot meet kettle.
Corner Stone
@terry chay: That’s fine for NY-22 but what about NY-23?
I’ve already dealt with this exhaustively if you bothered to read a little.
The polling is secondary to the decision by Scozzafava to suspend her campaign.
Now what happens?
My contention is that right here, right now, something is happening in NY-23 that is not simply explained by one factor – outside influence.
That’s it.
jwb
@Corner Stone: Ok, assuming she pulled out because she “saw something,” the question is whether she thought pulling out would help Hoffman or Owens compared with staying in. With her endorsement, it seems she believes that Owens has a better shot of winning with her out of the race than with her in the race; I have to believe that the NY state GOP party apparatus believes that and wants Owen to win as well or I don’t think she would have taken this action. Beyond that, I don’t think you can make any inferences other than in a low turnout race that special elections inevitably are, she didn’t believe that she would win. But that could easily translate into a district where only 30-35% of the electorate would vote for Hoffman in a regular election.
Personally, I would say that I wouldn’t be surprised if Hoffman wins the race handily, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if Owens wins the race handily, because I just don’t have a feel for which voters will be motivated to vote.
Corner Stone
@jwb:
And that is a fine interpretation. But the fact that she could not win (at least to her) makes me want to ask more questions about this race – not fewer. I don’t want to reduce it down to one simple answer such as outside influence. The things I’m reading and observing tell me it’s more than that.
I could be wrong here! I don’t live in NY-23!!
But ISTM that there is more than one thing making this a whirlwind special election. Whatever it does or does not say about the future of NY-23 and NYS, I want to know more!
What’s so wrong with challenging the easy assumptions? Fleshing things out a bit, poking around and not just being pissed at the Dick Armeys and Palins of the world.
What if they actually rightly picked up on something and didn’t jerry rig something artificial?
We won’t know on Tue and we may not for years but I don’t see such a big deal in asking about it.
Of Bugs and Books
@DougJ:
if ever there was a word with a unique BJ flavor, it should be iatropic. After reading the Pretty Words post and Ambinder and his commenters, I still don’t know what was intended.
May I return the favor ?
Iatropic – 1. catachrestic folly in attempting to squeeze out more meaning or humor than is present in teabagger paranoid excitement.
2. polite form of ‘clinically batshit crazy’.
(Latin, from http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/10/dede_drops_out.php)
/thanks marc, and SGEW, https://balloon-juice.com/?p=29133#comment-1424138
Brachiator
@jcricket:
Jerry Brown is a tired old warhorse. And although he is the frontrunner for now, the plain fact is that California has failed to develop a new crop of Democrats, despite all the failures of Der Guvernator. And given the disgust that many voters feel over the California budget debacle, it is interesting that political newcomer, Republican challenger Meg Whitman is attracting a fair amount of interest.
But two years or so ago, the pundits were wondering whether the ascendancy of Gavin Newsom up north, and Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was heralding a new era of Democratic dominance in state politics, and also noting the national ambitions of these politicians. As an aside, Villaraigosa also hitched his wagon to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. He knew which way history was pointing.
However, the Latino bloc includes a lot of non-voters, and Asians are numerically irrelevant to the national vote count. And it’s too early to put the GOP on suicide watch. They can count as well as can the Democrats. And don’t forget that they chose McCain to be their standard bearer even though he was detested by the fundamentalists.
This is simply not true. Democrats cannot simply depend on a demographic shift or the nuttiness of the GOP to keep them in office. A political rope-a-dope strategy can easily be blunted if the Democrats continue to show signs of lack of focus, and an inability to deliver on strong change and reform.
General Winfield Stuck
@Corner Stone:
Support for Obama in this solid republican district is around 60 percent. What does that tell you. Terry Chay and others have pointed this out repeatedly and how it casts doubt on anything happening much more than outsider dollars and support along with the wingnut residents of around 30 percent or so. And when it comes to get out the vote, that outside confederate puke funnel money and activism will matter a lot. this was what Dougj was saying and he is right and you are wrong, again. Ahem..
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
I haven’t torn apart the poll she used to decide to suspend, I’m pretty sure it was accurate and it showed her in 3rd place by enough points she couldn’t make them up any way at all. Pols don’t quit easily, you’ve taken people’s money and time and loyalty. I don’t think she was forced out by the powers that be and DougJ didn’t say that either.
She was forced out by numbers, but those numbers were driven by outsiders. You have about half a million population in a CD, of that elegible portion not much over half vote in important elections. Remember that turnout is a measure of registered voters, not elegible ones. Conservatively speaking, throw out another half of registered voters because of small turn out and split that 3 ways, you’re getting into the range where a literal handful of voters can have a huge impact.
Yes, something is happening in NY23, an unimportant election has been hijacked from outside.
jwb
@Corner Stone: “What if they actually rightly picked up on something and didn’t jerry rig something artificial?”
Then God help us all.
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
You’re not doing any of what you ask about here. You’re telling people who are trying to tear the damn thing apart and make sense of it that they’re making easy assumptions while you do just that on the basis of … just doing it.
Because OR has an intitiative process we get to be victim of this crap real frequently, outside money with no more agenda than to use OR as a fucking lab experiment. They love to do this shit in off-year elections because they know turnout is down. Try defending against this shit, lots of money, issues that don’t directly affect most voters, issues with longterm bad outcomes and shortterm advantages for them. Try doing it with no goddam money and a an activist core that gets worn out and spread thin by it. You may win an election by gaming the fucking system, but trying to turn that into “something is happening” is silly.
Let me put it this way, the wingnutteria is a fairly stable number, now and for a long time. In South Carolina it wins because it is enough of the voter pop to do it, most places it is an annoyance. NY23 is not getting stupider, it is being gamed, if you think that is horse shit, get the fucking poll break down and see what portion of NY23 you’re talking about as Hoffman voters at 33% of a 3 way special election electorate. It isn’t shit, it is that stable 23%.
Llelldorin
@Brachiator:
In Newsom’s case, at least, he’s entirely failed to convert his support to any region where San Francisco isn’t simply “the City.” He’s a spectacularly good San Francisco infighter, but he’s not very good at the less-personal retail politics in the rest of the state.
Ishtarmuz
I would say the Republican Party has turned its back on its best and brightest. It has turned its back on Deirdre Scozzafava. The Republican Party leader have been lost along the wayside and so the party has no intellectual support for any of its positions. It has become all rhetoric and buzzwords.
That said:
I think we all should be outraged by the intrusion of outsiders into 23rd District’s local politics deciding how they should vote. I don’t think that this country has seen such blatant corporate driven bullying since the 1930s. It is clear as an observer that this is arm-twisting in a big way when a moderate Republican candidate is forced to drop out, and has more in common with the Democratic candidate, yet Republicans are expected to vote the Conservative ticket just because the candidate is Republican.
Where is the palpable outrage from those being considered so programmed by the party? I find it odd that no one is mentioning the NY-20th election of 2006 where the Democratic candidate, Kirsten Gillibrand, was 19 points behind at this same point in the race and she was written off too by the same poll, but I believe she will be visiting their soon to talk about such things. I think local wisdom will prevail and when they vote their conscience the outsiders will do a lot more homework next time before they rush in to save the day. I think that any effect she would have had, she still can have on this election. After all, she is still on the ballot. And by the way, Deirdre Scozzafava has endorsed the other local candidate who happens to be a Democrat, Bill Owens, despite ‘official reports’ to the contrary.
BTW you might want to know what lies the Republican party is putting out: http://article.wn.com/view/2009/10/31/Republican_in_NY_House_race_suspends_campaign_urges_supporte/ No doubt, with plausible deniability as usual. Compare that to this: http://www.accountableamerica.org/
BTW, This is what is some national reporting on the subject: http://www.theliberaloc.com/2009/11/01/ny-times-go p-stalinists-invade-upstate-ny-for-ny23-congressio nal-race-right-wing-leaning-watertown-times-endors es-democrat-owens/ has to say about it.
LD50
@Corner Stone:
Are everybody assholes wherever you’re from?
Brian J
A few random thoughts:
1. It doesn’t particularly bother me that outsiders try to influence a race. No, what happens in this district isn’t Dick Armey’s concern, but unless he moves there, he doesn’t get a vote. Neither does Sarah Palin, or anyone else, on either side, that voiced an opinion. Unless there’s such an overwhelming array of resources devoted to try to skew reality, which nobody is suggesting, then it’s kind of silly to care that others get involved.
2. It’s probably not perfect, but the link between what voters spend their time focusing on and what candidates focus on probably aligns pretty well. Thus, if Hoffman isn’t learning that much about water issues, and people vote for him anyway, then it’s likely that they don’t care about it as much as other issues, rightly or wrongly.
3. He’s definitely right that this race isn’t anything significant. If the Democrats win, so much the better, but if the Republicans win, it’s not necessarily an indication they are on a roll. This doesn’t mean the media will treat it this way, unfortunately.
4. My guess is, the Republicans would have a lot more success in this state and in the Northeast in general if they would actually come here. I’m not saying that a Tom Delay-type would be elected mayor of New York City, just that there’s probably enough random voters who don’t bother to show up to make a difference in at least some races.
The Very Reverend Battleaxe of Knowledge
Weird shit can happen in these off-off-year elections. Here in King County WA, where we voted for Obama close to 80/20, we’re poised to elect a Michelle Bachmann clone County Executive.
Lest you think that this is a picayune office, when Gary Locke was running for governor from that position, it was pointed out that there are 17 states with fewer people than King County (and 2 with less land area.) If this kind of disaster can happen here in the middle of latté-sipping la-la land, anything can happen anywhere.
General Winfield Stuck
@Brian J:
The tea bag candidate Hoffman doesn’t even live in the district.
General Winfield Stuck
How lame is this?
Brian J
He doesn’t live in the district? Well, that’s something.
Brachiator
@Brian J:
This isn’t necessarily true at all. There are at least two other forces at work. Political consultants cynically believe that they can control voter desires, even though reality spanks them time and time again.
During the California recall election, the Democrats consistently misread public opinion. Worse, when Der Guvernator ran for re-election, Democratic operatives kept insisting that voters could be controlled. The result was a GOP butt-kicking of massive proportions.
The other thing that happens is that political operatives try to energize likely voters. If voter turnout is low, or if a sizable number of voters are indifferent to whether or not a wingnut is running, then all kinds of mischief is possible.
bystander
I’d be calling my mother to ask, WTF?, DougJ, but it looks like Rome/Utica/Syracuse are all somehow missed by those district lines. Heck, doesn’t look as if my in-laws are even in there. What a squirrely way to construct a district.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=NY&district=23
Brachiator
@Llelldorin:
Newsom has bad political instincts that are overlooked in San Francisco. And the fact remains that California Democrats have not cultivated a new generation of state level politicians, and are overly dependent on the name recognition of their two senators, Speaker Pelosi and old warhorses like Jerry Brown.
This means that in California, one of the biggest states with the biggest number of electoral votes, and probably elsewhere, that no one can depend upon a distaste of things wingnuttia to automatically push people into the loving arms of the Democrats.
Chuck Butcher
@Brachiator:
Well, it might be accurate to state that what he focuses on and what his voters focus on is fairly congruent, but that also might be like pointing out that there is politicking going on in a campaign. He really appears to be that incoherent teabaggery sort of guy and not surprisingly what his voters care about is incoherent teabaggery – not water. That would be entirely sensible if the water issues don’t involve the Fed…bet they do. WTF would Palin, et al know about that, anyhow – bearing in mind that Bridge she knew so little about.
Chuck Butcher
@Brachiator:
I’ve watched him and I’d say he needs a bit of seasoning to compete with old hands like J Brown. It’s a tough thing to run against all the contacts and associations someone like that has. This might have played a bit differently if Brown or someone like him weren’t the opposition.
tammanycall
@Brachiator:
Newsom is more popular nationally than he is state-wide. Here in SoCal, he had pratically no juice at all. Brown, on the other hand, is doing okay, and he’s a known property all over the state. I wouldn’t throw in the towel just yet.
OriGuy
NY-23 reminds me a lot of CA-4 last year. CA-4 is the northeaster corner of California, mostly rural and sparsely populated, but with a bunch of Sacramento suburbs and Lake Tahoe. After scandal-ridden John Doolittle retired, carpetbagger Tom McClintock beat three other Republicans in the primary, and barely beat Charlie Brown in the general. McClintock lives in the other end of the state, not just in the next county.
Oh, and I’m hoping the Red State Trike Farce decides to call Scozzafava a “turncoat”, so that they mail overcoats to her office. She can hand them out to the poor in the district who need winter coats.
ET
Those NY Republicans have no idea what they are getting with Hoffman. Hopefully buyers remorse kicks in for 2010.
MNPundit
Uh, they just might win so doesn’t that by definition mean teabaggery on national issues trumps local issues?
redoubt
@Brian J: Afraid I have to disagree with you. The whole point of this exercise is the “Teabag Power!” that they think forced Scozzafava from the race. Now the Teabaggers/Carpetbaggers can get on with the job of electing Hoffman. Do they care how many people they piss off in upstate NY? No. The media attention will be gone by this time next month. Move on to the next sound-and-light show. But NY-23 will still be there. If
Grumpy Code Monkey
@MNPundit:
That’s true for the teabaggers who are likely to vote in this particular election; whether it’s true for the district at large is an open issue.
Local issues tend to be grab bags of infrastructure and service problems; nothing that really inspires passion in the electorate, nothing that can be distilled down to a pithy bumper-sticker slogan (“It’s a baby, not a choice!”, “Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve!”). Are you up in arms about your local water supply? How about landfills? Roads?
As many people have been pointing out, special elections tend to have low voter turnout, meaning a motivated minority can have an outsized effect on the result.
mds
Um, in his snide, petty hairball of a statement about Ms. Scozzafava dropping out, Hoffman already explicitly mentioned ACORN as working to get Nancy Pelosi’s hand-picked guy Bill Owens elected. And when the secessionist Confederate pukes were still puking all over Ms. Scozzafava, they were accusing her of having links to ACORN. Because they’re a bunch of goddamn lying shitbags.
And yes, in a low-turnout special election, outside agitation and financial backing can have a disproportionate impact. As has already been noted, just enough of the district is composed of drooling idiots who see starbursts when the Queen of Corrupt Fuckwits parachutes in to wink at them. If Hoffman were actually a champion of the district’s beliefs (despite not even living there), McHugh wouldn’t have been the previous occupant, and McCain would have carried the district instead of Obama.
Anyway, with the Independence Party switching its endorsement, the Watertown Daily Times switching its endorsement, Scozzafava’s union backers switching their support, and Scozzafava endorsing Owens, we’ll see what happens. Siena, which has something of a home court advantage, currently has it fairly close, with 18% undecided. Though their likely voter model does presume that enough of the Obama voters will hold their noses and turn out for Owens.
debbie
This probably doesn’t fit in this thread, but this morning I listened to a conservative radio show which had Michelle Bachmann on as a guest. She announced that she wanted all patriotic Americans to show up in D.C. this Thursday to tell their legislator in person that they must not vote for health care reform. She seemed on the verge of tears, and she acknowledged that people might be afraid to leave their jobs, but she insisted that this was the most important thing she’d ever asked anyone to do.
Afterwards, the radio host wondered what the possible turnout could be, given the short notice and that it was taking place during the week. He decided that even if only 5,000 people showed up, it would prove to be a resounding denunciation of Obama’s agenda.
debbie
Also this:
debbie
Oops, I meant this:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/bachmanns-new-effort-to-rally-against-congress—-and-do-it-inside-the-buildings—-endorsed-by-gop.php?ref=fpa