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You are here: Home / Politics / This is how realignment happens

This is how realignment happens

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Be prepared for a lot of good news for conservatives tomorrow, in Virginia, in New Jersey, in NY-23.

I think there may be so much good news that we start hearing a catch phrase like “anti-Obama backlash”, “conservative realignment/resurgence/rebirth”. Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

Reader Interactions

71Comments

  1. 1.

    General Winfield Stuck

    Be prepared for a lot of good news for conservatives tomorrow,

    We’re liberals, goes without saying.

  2. 2.

    Violet

    I think there may be so much good news that we start hearing a catch phrase like “anti-Obama backlash”, “conservative realignment/resurgence/rebirth”. Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

    Yes. Mentioned this in some thread last week. Heard E.J. Dionne and someone else on NPR discussing the upcoming elections. They used the “Obama backlash” and “growing conservative movement” along with “the country is turning to the right.”

    It’s not just the folks on Fox using phrases like that.

  5. 5.

    Jim

    If the Dems somehow pulled three upsets (and I still think Corzine will win) the SCLM would still present it as a “warning to President Obama and the Democrats” that the Dems didn’t win by ten more points than they did.

  6. 6.

    Zifnab

    Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

    Are you kidding? They’ve been saying that since January. Tea Parties much?

  7. 7.

    WyldPiratd

    DougJ, you forgot that everything is good news for John McCain.

    Of course we are going to be innundated with that chickenshit meme.

  8. 8.

    GambitRF

    Forget all that down-ballot crap, the polls are starting to show some clear momentum for the McCain campaign.

  10. 10.

    General Winfield Stuck

    I expect just as much “Death to Rino” talk and let’s Do the Limbo theme music whilst the winger gawds are sated.

    One scrawny wingnut bobbing around in a sea of blue doesn’t strike terror too much.

  11. 11.

    calipygian

    So lets see here –

    Corzine will probably win.

    NY-23 is a volatile toss up that can go either way.

    VA will be won by the wingnut, who ran a campaign that not only distanced himself from the defacto leadership of the GOP (Palin), but distanced himself from his own past, in that he has completely covered up his desire to turn VA into Gilead.

    But its all good for President McCain, I suppose.

  12. 12.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    I know it’s popular to blame the black guy for everything but we just got about three lousy statewide Democratic candidates running for office this time around in Virginia. Republican McDonnell is running as the heir apparent to the Warner-Kaine JobsRUs franchise while Deeds was apparently abducted by aliens sometime last year.

  17. 17.

    calipygian

    Is Big John Cornyn next on the hit list for the Red State Trike Farce?

    What are they going to send him, box turtles?

    What does it say about a movement that thinks the third dumbest man in the Senate is squishy?

  18. 18.

    Joshua Norton

    Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

    Only ever since McCain got the nomination. Haven’t you been listening?

  20. 20.

    Lev

    The VA gubernatorial campaign strikes me as similar to Obama vs. McCain, with the parties flipped (though the metaphor breaks down inasmuch as McDonnell is a real wingnut, so far as I can tell).

    Truth be told, while I don’t much care for Chris Christie, it’s unclear to me why I should care about the NJ Governor’s race–the governor doesn’t even have a role in redistricting, it’s done by a bipartisan commission. Having a sane, clean Republican governor might get rid of some of that state’s corruption, but Christie strikes me as just as sleazy as anyone.

    VA is going to suck because the GOP is going to have a stronger hand when it comes to redistricting all those new Democratic congresspeople.

    The thing I really care about, though, is gay marriage in Maine. If we lose the rest of it but win that vote, the day is a victory, IMO.

  23. 23.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    @arguingwithsignposts: The one-term thing is flat out stupid by itself and it’s been around since 18something. It turns the Governorship into nothing more than a springboard to senator, consequences be damned. Meanwhile, apparently Bolling can be LieutenantGovernorForLife, never show up for a fucking meeting and no one gives a damn.

    And I should note that I kinda like Jody Wagner but she is no Mary Sue Terry.

  24. 24.

    MikeJ

    What does it say about a movement that thinks the third dumbest man in the Senate is squishy?

    Number one and two are Inhofe and who? too many to choose from.

  25. 25.

    Zifnab

    @Pangloss: It’s been a Republican stronghold since 1854, so if the Republicans win it this year – sea change, baby!

    As for New Jersey, it would be nice if they could run someone who wasn’t aggressively competing for nation’s biggest scumbag.

    Still, all this good news could fire up the Right Wing donor base which has, until this point, been fairly unenthusiastic. Wins like this will replenish the coffers of the wingy-er wingnuts and continue to drag the GOP steadily rightward. Which will drag the Democratic party steadily rightward. Which will drag Obama steadily rightward. Until we get to enjoy another round of Clinton redux.

    *sigh*

    One of these days, we’re going to have a genuine liberal majority in Congress and the shit that’s going to get accomplished will be absolutely crazy.

  27. 27.

    Davis X. Machina

    I remember how the 1991 election of Harris Wofford, running heavily on health care reform, to John Heinz’ old PA seat in the Senate presaged a new age of Democratic supremacy.

    Santorum beat him in ’94. And health care reform still waits.

    You can’t infer anything from a sample size of 1.

  28. 28.

    calipygian

    @MikeJ: I was thinking Inhofe and his OK senator mate Dr. Tom Coburn probably don’t break 100 IQ points between them.

  29. 29.

    FlipYrWhig

    @arguingwithsignposts:

    BTW, Va’s 1-term, 6-year Governor idea is flat-out stupid.

    Stupider still, it’s 1 term, 4 years.

    I’m in VA and McDonnell seriously gives me the willies, even if I didn’t know anything about his policies. He’s _so_ megachurch blow-dried blue-blazer-with-khakis. It physically repulses me. But I’ve only been in VA for 4 years myself, and I guess my neighbors are more inclined towards that sort of thing. Yeccch.

  32. 32.

    Katherine

    @Lev:

    Actually, the NJ race is pretty important on the marriage equality front. Corzine will sign the marriage equality bill, Christie has promised to veto it.

  33. 33.

    danimal

    A little success tomorrow will guarantee overreach in 2010. GOP moderates will soon be listed as an endangered species.

  35. 35.

    kay

    I know New Jersey has problems with corruption, but Christie is not the answer.
    I get such a strong bad, feeling with him. Such a consistent pattern of abuse of power, and the fact that it’s penny ante “throwing his weight around” abuse makes it more telling.
    If he wins, he’ll be stepping down or indicted within a year.

  36. 36.

    Brachiator

    The bigger problem is that Obama and the Democrats are losing the faith of the people who brung ’em.

    In Iowa, Euphoria Gives Way to Second Thoughts on Obama. One year after he won office, the president’s standing has fallen in the state that jump-started his campaign. “It’s politics as usual,” said Pauline McAreavy, 76, left.

    It’s pointless to worry about the Republicans if you don’t make the people who voted for you happy.

  37. 37.

    JHF

    Of course there will be a “conservative backlash.” The idiot Democrats have completely blown the biggest issue of our time, namely affordable health care for all, by putting together a steaming pile of shit for the insurance industry.

    They should have started with and insisted on FREE singlepayer health care, financed by ending the wars and taxing millionaires. Simple. (The fallback position could have been Medicare for all.) Boy howdy, folks, if all those rednecks had ***free health care***, they’d be washing Big O’s feet.

  38. 38.

    shoutingattherain

    Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

    “Hope for the best. Expect the worst.” I’m a Liberal. ‘Twas ever thus.

  39. 39.

    G(NO)P

    Today’s GOP – full speed ahead from Reagan’s “Big Tent” to Palin’s “Outhouse”. : ^ )

  40. 40.

    calipygian

    It’s pointless to worry about the Republicans if you don’t make the people who voted for you happy.

    James Fallows nails that one:

    “How can the MSM (what’s left of it) not “get” that disappointment in Obama over “lack of change” is precisely the object of the GOP in blocking change? Does no one remember Newt Gingrich and the GOP strategy from 1992 to 1994, which actually worked? How can the GOP steal second and third in one play AGAIN and not get nailed this time? I want to scream. In any sensible society, instead of disappointment in Obama there would be intense anger at the GOP, and they’d be forced to knock it off.”
    …
    The talk about “any sensible society” of course leads us into the realm of what is fancily known as counterfactual theorizing….

    Yup.

  43. 43.

    Palin - Bachmann Overdrive

    Chris Wallace: Sarah Palin. You say that you admire her backbone. Do you really think she’s ready to be president?

    Rush Limbaugh: Well, yes I do. One thing I do not do is follow conventional wisdom. And the conventional wisdom is that Sarah Palin is not smart enough.

    The voice of the party has spoken – so it shall be written – so it shall be done.

    Palin/Bachmann 2012!!!

    This is great news for John McCain!!!

  44. 44.

    kay

    @calipygian:

    Yeah, but we keep going in the same circle. Conservatives don’t have to govern. They don’t do anything but cut taxes and deregulate. Seriously. How difficult is that agenda? Where is the resistance to that? 40 liberal Democrats in the House? That’s the sum total institutional resistance to the “conservative agenda”.

    It’s not even an “agenda”. It’s taking apart. Conservatives say “restoring” because they don’t want to use the negative, but all they have to do is take apart the house FDR built.

    Obama has to rebuild, and that’s just harder.

    I think if you’re a progressive you’re just stuck with that. One’s harder to do.

  45. 45.

    aimai

    Oh, yes, as someone observed way upthread NPR is already on the case. First with last decade’s political observations!

    aimai

  46. 46.

    Keith G

    @calipygian: That quote from Fallows is genius.

    Meanwhile on NPR, Mara Liasson engages in typical ass-hattery:

    Of all these races, New Jersey has the least to do with President Obama…because John Corzine is unpopular on his own, but if the democrats lose there it will be a slap in the face of the President….

    Talk about cocksuckers will ya…. Jeeze.

  49. 49.

    FlipYrWhig

    @JHF:

    Boy howdy, folks, if all those rednecks had ***free health care***, they’d be washing Big O’s feet.

    Nope, they would piss and moan about socializm, like they did anyway, because their free health care would be, you know, tainted by the fact that darker-skinned people also got it, which makes it Teh Welfarez.

  50. 50.

    Xecky Gilchrist

    Has anyone heard anything catchy along these lines yet?

    Yes, if I can count about seventeen hogrillion troll comments to that effect on Sadly, No!

  52. 52.

    Nick

    @Zifnab: People were happy with Clinton, they’d be thrilled with Clinton redux.

    Yeah, sucks to be liberal in America, but then again, it always did.

  54. 54.

    Nick

    @calipygian: Oh they get it…that’s what they wanted to happen.

    What they were hoping for is that the GOP would give them their storyline; “Obama fails to deliver rainbows and sunshine…NEVERMIND WHY!”

  55. 55.

    Nylund

    All I know is that we should embrace it and actively help the Republicans throw every moderate in their party to the curb.

    I’ll make the calls, donate the money, and do whatever it takes to help them in their quest to become a regional fringe party hated by the majority of America.

  56. 56.

    Leelee for Obama

    @Nylund: If I still lived in NY, I’d be right there with you, but living here in sunny FL, that idea loses some of the shiny quality.

  57. 57.

    CalD

    I just keep thinking back to 1998, when all the learned speculation of the experts universally ran to estimates of how many seats the Democrats would lose. The only disagreements I can recall were as to whether that would be a whole bunch or perhaps only a handful.

  61. 61.

    flyingdonut

    Deeds’ campaign has been so staggeringly bad words can’t describe it. Mrs. Donut and I are the exact people Deeds should be locking up – affluent, Obama Dems who 1) gave a pile of money to the Obama campaign and 2) actually volunteered time working phones and such last year. Did we get a single phone call? Not a one, and the same for all of my other Commie Librul friends. The Dems are just going to stay home tomorrow.

    McDonnell is going to be OK. The truly scary one is the down ballot race here, where Cuccinelli is going to win the AG post.

  62. 62.

    Brachiator

    @calipygian:

    I’m not sure what it is that you think that Fallows has nailed. I respect him, but it sounds as though he is prefabricating excuses for Democrats, something that they were good at when the Bush/Cheney regime was in power.

    I expect the Republicans to attempt to block Obama.

    I expect Obama to roll them over.

    I will not accept, “We tried, but failed.” This will not lead me to vote for Palin or any other GOP goon. But neither will I automatically vote for a Democrat just because they are not as crazy as the GOP wingnuts.

    Here’s a bit from the NY Times article

    A retired electrical engineer who became a Democrat to support Mr. Obama believes that the president too often blames others for his troubles.

    So yeah. Let’s follow Fallows. Blame those bad Republicans. And the mainstream media. And Fox News. This will get you a knowing nod from the cognoscenti.

    And it will guarantee that you lose support of the people who backed you and who expect you to get stuff done.

  65. 65.

    Nick

    @Brachiator: You mean picking off members of the other party to vote for your agenda?

    Cause that’s how Bush rolled over Democrats.

    So, good, find the Republican votes.

  67. 67.

    Brachiator

    @Nick:

    You mean picking off members of the other party to vote for your agenda?

    How soon they forget.

    The Republicans came into Washington with a hard-wired agenda, to roll back everything that the Democrats and moderates had ever achieved. They packed the executive branch with ignorant crony loyalists. They used signing statements and irrational definitions of executive authority to thwart the intent of passed laws they disagreed with. If a judicial or other appointee was delayed or voted down, they used recess appointments and re-nominations to get their guy in.

    They didn’t didn’t pick off members of the other party. They exploited weakness, an absence of will, and a fear of looking unpatriotic to get Democratic leadership and legislators to roll over like a desperately needy dog.

    Republican corruption, venality, and disdain for the Constitution set new standards for dishonesty. I don’t expect them to change now that they are out of office, and they are living up to my low expectations.

    Obama is the anthesis to Bush…that’s why he won.

    I remember Hope and Change as Obama mantras. I missed, “Vote for me just because I’m not Dubya.”

  68. 68.

    Nick

    @Brachiator:
    BTW, you probably should’ve read on

    In Iowa, Ms. McAreavy fears that the president’s health care plan will shortchange her Medicare benefits and mean infrequent mammogram examinations. She worries that his decision on Afghanistan will mean that her son, a member of the Iowa National Guard, will return to the battlefield. And she believes that too many of Mr. Obama’s actions are rooted in Democratic politics.

    “All my Republican friends — and independents — are sitting back saying, ‘Oh, what did we do?” Ms. McAreavy said. “I’m not to that point yet, but a lot of people are.”

    are rooted in Democratic politics. Ms. McAreavy is upset because she feels the President is TOO RADICAL. She’s upset because he’s not BIPARTISAN ENOUGH. Do you agree with Ms. McAreavy still? Do you think he should allievate her concerns about him being too rooted in Democratic politics?

    Maybe you need to read more before you use this type of thing as proof of your point.

  69. 69.

    Nick

    @Brachiator:

    The Republicans came into Washington with a hard-wired agenda, to roll back everything that the Democrats and moderates had ever achieved. They packed the executive branch with ignorant crony loyalists. They used signing statements and irrational definitions of executive authority to thwart the intent of passed laws they disagreed with. If a judicial or other appointee was delayed or voted down, they used recess appointments and re-nominations to get their guy in.

    They didn’t didn’t pick off members of the other party. They exploited weakness, an absence of will, and a fear of looking unpatriotic to get Democratic leadership and legislators to roll over like a desperately needy dog.

    Republican corruption, venality, and disdain for the Constitution set new standards for dishonesty.

    and yet you want Obama to act just like them.

    I remember Hope and Change as Obama mantras. I missed, “Vote for me just because I’m not Dubya.”

    Maybe you misunderstood the whole concept of change…change meaning “Hi, I’m not Bush, I won’t govern like Bush”

  70. 70.

    liberal

    @calipygian:

    VA will be won by the wingnut, who ran a campaign that not only distanced himself from the defacto leadership of the GOP (Palin), but distanced himself from his own past, in that he has completely covered up his desire to turn VA into Gilead.

    From my view here in suburban Maryland, near DC, all I can think of is, “What, you idiots in VA want to commit suicide by electing another Republican governor, after you saw what the previous ones did to your state?”

  71. 71.

    SFAW

    Same way Dubya rolled over the Democrats.

    Couple of problems with that “idea”.

    1) The Dems have not (in recent memory) been willing, nor able, to enforce party discipline the way the Rethugs have. Part of this is because the political spectrum in the Democrat Party is significantly broader than in the Republic Party. Another part is that Harry Reid is pretty close to the opposite of LBJ, at least in terms of corralling the Senate. If Joe Lieberman tried to pull his crap under LBJ, any bill/whatever he ever wanted as a Senator would be gone pretty f’ing fast.
    2) The Dems have the backbone of a bed of kelp. “Please, oh please, oh PLEASE don’t call us bocialist/unpatriotic/terrist-sympathizers/child-molesters!”. I can almost tolerate that behavior in the 6-12 months after 9/11, but after 2003?
    3) To act as the Chubya Administration did (i.e. in rolling over everyone/everything not like them), the Dems would probably need to become as amoral as the Rethugs. While it would be good fun to hear the Rethugs scream “No fair!” for awhile, the long-term consequences of having TWO completely cynical parties would be worse than the benefits of the short-term pleasure. And, no, I don’t consider the current Democrats generally to be Republican-lite – although sometimes they behave that way, and it’s frustrating as hell.

    Assuming the Dems retain the Senate after 2010, a good first step would be to put Durbin (or maybe Schumer?) in as Majority Leader – even if Reid manages to win. After that? Not sure, but it would be a start.

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