I have to admit that I’m disappointed by the media’s fairly measured response to last night’s elections. Sure, we’ve been told that two Democratic defeats in state elections prove Americans hate the Democrats in the federal government while two Democratic victories in federal elections don’t mean anything, but I’m surprised by how how little is turning up when I google obama+”stinging rebuke”. Or is that phrase no longer in circulation?
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gsp
Maybe try “obama + humilitating loss”? Politicos got part of it covered.
Zam
I thought their new word for an exaggerated claim of change was sea change
Violet
Try Obama + “stunning rebuke” – you get a lot more hits with that.
kommrade reproductive vigor
Try Democrats + strong warning.
El Cid
Try “referendum“.
Brick Oven Bill
Obama “bitch slap”.
kommrade reproductive vigor
Or NJ + VA + Fap, fap, fap.
bjacques
I can beat that. Yahoo News has “Democrats, incumbents get wake-up call.” I don’t remember anything like “Reality check for GOP” when the Dems picked up the odd seat during the Bush years. Feh.
AkaDad
Rush is saying last night was Obama’s waterloo.
Leelee for Obama
There is enough BS out there but you are right. The fact that these two Governor races have usually sent the candidate from the out of power party in DC to the State Mansion has really made them keep some sense of perspective. They have to bow to history a little.
I didn’t watch Morning Schmoe so I missed Luke being a journalist! Good for him-there’s hope that maybe the younger Russert will actually be objective.
I love that Owens won in NY-23, that was awesome! Too bad that any Repubs voted for Dede-it would have put Owens over 50%. He should get a feel for how the area thinks on current legislation, and vote for their interests, so he can beat the tea-partier they put up next year. The California Liberal that got Tauscher seat makes me sooooo happy.
Too bad about Maine. Could there have been any misunderstanding on which vote was for keeping the law? I noticed that the wording seemed a bit confusing? Anyone see exit polling on this?
I hate to think that so many people really want to deny rights, or worse, rescind rights to their fellow citizens. But, it may be that I’m wrong thinking people are basically decent.
Johnny Gentle (famous crooner)
I think you’re a bit premature. If, God forbid, 2010 goes badly for Democrats, then you might see that phrase in heavy rotation. But for right now, the cliches of choice seem to be things like “warning signs,” “signs of trouble,” “storm clouds,” etc.
Zifnab
@AkaDad: Only if Hoffman and Palin are playing the part of Napoleon.
jibeaux
They probably just don’t want to incur the wrath of Obama like he unleashed on poor Fox, because they’re pansy libtards afraid of the truthiness.
The Populist
Right wingers, riddle me this:
Doug Hoffman should have been the hands down winner in NY-23. What happened? Governorships have NEVER been a reliable barometer on national politics. Corzine is a former Sachs CEO who inherited a mess he could not clean up.
How did Sacramento insider Garamendi win in a race that Harmer could have won as a “rebuke”?
Keep this in mind. Glenn Beck and Rush were pushing Hoffman along with Palin and other wingnutty a-holes. He lost.
You are crowing about winning to governorships? Wow. Am I the only one colored unimpressed by this? California is a pretty blue state yet it elects righties as it’s governors more times than I can name. Hmmm. Creigh Deeds was a LAME opponent. I could beat Creigh Deeds for Gawd’s sake.
Corzine and Christie are both Wall Street goons. Changing out one for the other is no biggie to me. The people of NJ will be the ones that suffer, not the nation.
So to recap, explain to us how your darling Hoffman is NOT a rebuke to extreme right partisan politics? Keep pushing the Obama meme all you want but he’s irrelevent. The Tea Bag movement, according to the big radio/tv righties, is a real movement yet one of it’s darlings LOST in a district that votes GOP for over 100 years now.
Wow.
kay
@AkaDad:
Everyone stops listening when you say “Waterloo”, weekly.
Conservatives are destroying language. They reach for the most emphatic term or phrase over and over.
We don’t have anything left for real disasters. They really ruin everything.
El Cid
2001: Democrats win NJ & VA governors’ races.
Clearly this means nothing for the awesome Bush Jr. agenda which all America is behind because they all hate the Clinton era.
2009: Republicans win NJ & VA governors’ races.
Clearly this means that America has stoop up and rejected Obama’s and Pelosis radical Bill Ayers communist agenda, and if’n Democrats know what’s good for them they’ll focus on postponing health care reform until they can get a majority of Republican Senators to support it.
The Populist
“Obama “bitch slap”.”
Brick Oven, maybe it’s PALIN bitch slap seeing her darling lost and lost pretty dramatically.
slippy
@AkaDad: It’s amazing how delusional Rush Limbaugh can be, but then again his job is to create a delusion for his listeners that things are always going their way, except when bogus threats are aligning against them, and then they’re in danger and need to run around bleating and bashing their heads against the wall like a bunch of infant goats.
Shell
I thought that was when the US lost the Olympics. If Rush doesn’t start pacing himself he’s gonna run out of hyperbole before 2012.
kay
@El Cid:
They want him to fail because the media consensus after the bottom fell out of the economy was that he had “enough on his plate”. They warned and warned, and polled extensively on it, and when polling didn’t buttress that, they just went with it anyway.
Obama chose to pursue his agenda, which actually was a risky choice: they would have preferred him in “clean up” role, which is the usual role for Democrats after a period of conservative dominance. I thought he might bow to their wishes, which would have been completely reasonable. He didn’t, and now he must suffer for that hubris.
He was warned. He simply refuses to accept that he’s the clean-up crew after conservatives.
The Populist
“I love that Owens won in NY-23, that was awesome! Too bad that any Repubs voted for Dede-it would have put Owens over 50%. He should get a feel for how the area thinks on current legislation, and vote for their interests, so he can beat the tea-partier they put up next year. The California Liberal that got Tauscher seat makes me sooooo happy.”
Leelee, who cares if 6% voted for Dede. Think of it this way, 6% of the electorate sent the tea baggers a message that if they want to play the anti-moderate card (America, is not a center-right country at all — it’s a CENTER country with pretty liberal tolerance for many social issues — idiot repubs should grasp this fully).
In the end Hoffman was TROUNCED. They disrespected Scozzafava and called her all kinds of things that I wouldn’t call my own worst enemy. She got the last laugh by getting that kind of vote. I will admit some may have just checked the space labeled (R) but many more could have decided she was their Ralph Nader and that is fine by me.
In the end the party of Beck and Limpbaugh lost big and they need to own up to it.
kay
@Shell:
Health care and GM too. Waterloo(s)
They don’t have large vocabularies.
The Populist
How’s that? Rush was a big backer of Hoffman who should have easily won in a district that votes with cons for over 100 years now.
The Waterloo moment is the far right’s. How did Sacramento insider Garamendi beat Harmer then?
Comrade Dread
Pretty much every newscast I’ve listened to describes it as a big win for Republicans, a “political shift”, and how Democrats will have to stop supporting Obama’s polices, blah blah blah.
It’s honestly like a roomful of puppets at this point just moving their mouths and saying whatever the guy with his hand up their ass wants them to say.
Left Coast Tom
@Shell:
It’s like peak wingnut. It seems like they should run out of hyperbole, but since “making shit up” is a renewable resource, they’ll just scream louder and louder.
The Populist
And they are full of it. Two governorships cannot stop Obama’s policies. Two more right wing congressmen can, so these blockheads can keep talking it up but weren’t these idiots the same ones telling us Hoffman was going to win hands down? I’d be asking them what the f— happened then?
The Populist
Kinda continues to kill this argument the right keep trying to sell that 95% of journalists are liberal, eh?
Mike G
The Dem losses are the most earth-shatteringly important political turning points since 1776.
The Dem wins are meaningless minor gains.
As always, this is good news for John McCain.
Joey Maloney
@Comrade Dread:
Like this guy?
Brick Oven Bill
This one is as good as giving the Queen an I-Pod loaded with the speeches he read. Obama watches HBO Special about himself instead of watching election returns.
Denial is a term coined by Freud.
“Denial is a defense mechanism postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.”
The odds of the initial JNM occurring in November has risen from 32% to 36%.
El Cid
Had the Democrats won the governorships of NJ & VA, but lost NY-23, then suddenly NY-23 would have been Obama’s Waterloo and AMERICA REJECTS THE OBAMA-PELOSI RADICAL AGENDA and all the rest of it.
It wouldn’t matter.
8 Democratic victories and 2 Republican victories means that AMERICANS REJECT OBAMA PELOSI COMMUNISM.
aimai
Actually, I’ll tell you there’s been a sea change–Juan Williams was on NPR this morning and he basically made the same, correct, point that we’ve all been making: exit poll interviews showed that Obama/his administration/cap and trade/health care were not on the voters minds. Depression and the economy were. People voted on local, state issues and state level disgruntlement. Its the first time ever I’ve heard Juan Williams not spout the GOP party line.
aimai
Ash Can
All this “stinging rebuke for Obama” bullshit is starting to make me wonder what the media narrative is going to be tomorrow. Putting aside the whole lie-brul media canard, there are plenty of pundits out there who enjoy being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian; it’s their way of saying “look at me and how clever I am.” If the Obama-rebuke narrative becomes sufficiently pervasive and monolithic today, I wonder if any more Luke Russerts will come out of the woodwork tomorrow, if for no other reason than the fact that they’ll think it makes them look smarter than their peers.
Am I betting on this happening? Hellz no. Do I think it’s at least possible? Maybe. In any event, what I do think is a safe bet is that pundits in general can be counted on to be fatuous, shallow, and deeply in love with their own writing. If this primary motivation prompts them to write something that makes sense once in a while (like as I understand it did for Ruth Marcus, of all people, today), then I’ll give credit where credit is due.
smiley
He just went on to rant about how outgageous it is that Obama turned down Merkel’s invitation to go over there to celebrate the fall of the Berlin wall by saying he was too busy.
AkaDad
What I’m gathering here is that you all think Rush is wrong, but he told me that he is correct 99.2% of the time and that’s documented.
Comrade Dread
Don’t forget Sarah Palin, whose mavericky support for Hoffman allowed the Tea Partiers to turn an otherwise easy victory into defeat.
This clearly proves she is powerful and will be teh bestest president ev4!
Violet
@Mike G:
Is he even going to run again? Heaven forbid we have to change the phrase to “This is good news for Sarah Palin.”
danimal
It’s all good. We get more votes in the house. Dem-leaning independents get woken up. The GOP civil war continues. The media folks expose themselves as fools. And Obama keeps plodding along on his agenda under the radar.
Zam
I’d just like to point out that the media is treating this as almost a mandate for republicans, while 2006 and 2008 were apparently tiny losses for repubs.
eemom
It’s all Rahm Emmanuel’s fault. Srsly. The Lakey Lady sez so, and she’s ALWAYS right…..just ask her glassy-eyed groupies.
Napoleon
@Zifnab:
Hey!
Zifnab
@Zam: Every year is a mandate for the Republicans.
“Stay the Course” might have fallen out of style in speech, but it’s been the cornerstone in practice.
Napoleon
@AkaDad:
I love Abba.
The Populist
Proof.
This loss in NJ is nothing of the sort. Corzine inherited a budget mess even he couldn’t fix. He lost plain and simple.
The Populist
Oh and BOB, Newsbusters is not proof. Show me legit proof or it didn’t happen.
AkaDad
Nice. I saw what you did there from my house.
Max
@The Populist: Gibbs has already said Fox lied. Obama watched the basketball game.
Brick Oven Bill
Correction: It was a re-run about himself he watched. Here is Talking Points Memo, kind of a goofy publication, but you will probably trust it The Populist.
Obama watches a re-run about himself instead of watching election returns, from these races that he actively participated in. He spoke five times in support of Corzine.
He seeks the re-run (positive mental feedback) and avoids the election returns (negative mental feedback). This is stuff you can get away with as an academic. This is no good in an Executive.
maus
It’s simple, anything that makes liberals look bad is good for the media at large, anything that might embolden Obama to actually DO SOMETHING towards progressive causes is going to be vastly ignored.
PeakVT
@aimai: I turned the radio right back off when I heard his voice, so I missed that gaffe. I’m sure he’ll get a call from Murdoch soon.
licensed to kill time
Some days it’s a Nick Cage Moment, other days it’s a Jack Nicholson Moment. Next it’ll be a St.Nicholas Moment, or a Nicholas Nickleby Moment or a…well, fill in your favorite Nicks’, they all make about as much sense.
But every day is a Nutty As A Fruitcake Moment for a certain someone.
Barbara Cooper
@AkaDad:
“Rush is saying last night was Obama’s waterloo.”
To Rush, everything is Obama’s waterloo. Such an ass.
inkadu
Only Sam Adams lager mixed with orange Fanta can heal this stunning rebuke.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
MSM’s “measured response”? Where? Dan Fucking Balz at the comPost trotted out the tried and true predictable:
“GOP Wins reveals cracks in Obama’s coalition”.
The asshat goes on to say “Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future” and then proceeds to blather on about how exactly this will mean something and how the Repups have a more energized base, blah, blah, blah.
Or worse, the Christian Science Monitor:
That’s the usual Beltway meme of “Democrats are too librul and thus can’t win elections”.
Every one of these outlets deserves the death they are undergoing.
jibeaux
The only thing I worry about, and it’s probably because I’m reading the book Nudge, is that people like to go with the crowd, they like to do what they perceive as what most other people are doing. (There are some very weird examples of this in the book, like that people are more likely to re-use hotel towels if they are told that most other people do it, as compared with telling them about the environmental benefits.) He talks about, e.g. John Kerry suddenly getting a lot of primary support, such as from former Dean supporters, and casts it in no small part as people perceiving a big shift by other people over to Kerry.
I’m not trying to be obsessive, I’m not saying it’s worrying me a LOT, but I do just worry about these memes that “look at all that rebuke going on!” could be more harmful than they seem.
SiubhanDuinne
For giggles, I wandered over to Media Matters to check up on what Rush was saying about NY-23. According to him, “Party bosses and these big thinkers like Newt screwed the whole thing up.”
Link: http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/200911040024
This line struck me as funny (as in kinda ironic, not ha-ha):
Is it possible that Rush is unaware that “this Gooddell [sic] guy, Charles Gooddell [sic]” was the father of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell? That’s right! The same Roger Goodell who doesn’t want Rush as a team owner!
jibeaux
@SiubhanDuinne:
That’s really funny.
There’s this old saying about horseshoes and hand grenades, Rush, you ever heard that one?
Brick Oven Bill
There is a difference between a NCM and a JNM. The Globe at this week’s grocery store describes a NCM, where Obama raises his voice and makes Michelle cry. Think National Treasure.
One example of a JNM would be a photographer getting a picture of Obama smoking, and then Obama chasing the photographer around the parking lot, while screaming at the top of his lungs ‘why do they hate me?’
To better fix this image in your mind, think The Shining.
Here is the best learning tool to increase your understanding.
BFR
@maus
With the exception of Fox, I don’t think this is deliberate. The folks running the show at the networks are older and more conservative than the population as a whole and were too young to remember the time when movement conservatism wasn’t the dominant force in US politics.
I recall reading in Nixonland about the late 60s where the media tended to obsess about the ascendancy of the young liberals while not recognizing that these same liberals were vastly outnumbered by their conservative counterpart.
The media missed the boat then for the same reasons they are now – they just don’t know any better.
Napoleon
@SiubhanDuinne:
Of course it is possible. Rick Perlstein discusses that race in Nixonland. Goodell was the first Rep Sen. to come out against the Vietnam war and Nixon wanted him picked off in the worst way, so behind the scenes he supported Buckley the Cons. candidate, and they won with him.
Bob L
The Democrats won a seat that was Republican for 150 years. So what? Poltics as normal. The Republicans won a governorship that hasn’t gone their way in 8 long years! The tied is clearly turning on the left.
Good news for conservatives.
The Populist
I see (can’t tell if you are being snarky but here I go) so 8 years since a Republican held seat as guv in NJ vs. 150 years in an area OWNED by the right.
Tradition loses but it’s not a big deal eh? 8 years? NJ changed governors, big whoop. NY-23 voted Dem AND defeated a tea bagger (the people the right claim are a legit “movement”). Sorry, the NY-23 is a better gauge as to the happenings of the country at the moment.
Don’t forget that Garamendi winning in a district that isn’t very liberal matters too.
The Populist
Make up your mind Rush…was it Acorn or was it the f-ing party bosses? God, maybe people in that district didn’t want an extreme right winger repping them?
So party bosses made 6% of the voters check Scozzafava’s name?
Nice try.
Moonbatting Average
Combined Senators, VA & NJ:
D=4, R=0
Combined House Members:
D=14, R=10
Combined Governors:
D=0, R=2
One of these stats is completely irrelevant to national policy, and of dubious predictive value for future federal elections. I hate the Liberal Media.
The Populist
They may be but this could also be no message at all, outside of voters frustrated with a governor in NJ who wasn’t getting it done and a termed out situation in VA where the Dem was a boring man with no winning attributes whatsoever.
Yep, I am not sold on any of this meme. These people on the right can keep screaming it matters but the significant race was NY-23 with Palin, Beck and Rush all pushing a carpetbagging tea-bagger.
Max
I’m also seeing this being directed at the “Obama voters” and that we didn’t turn out, which goes to show that we only care about celebrity and not the issues.
Bull$hit.
I’d love to see a comparison of the turnout numbers for this year versus other off-off-election years.
But, hey, I’m an O-bot, what do I know.
The Populist
Amen. Look at California for further proof of that argument. How many years has CA had a GOP guv YET they keep putting Dems into congress and the assembly?
The Populist
Yes, whatever Bob. Funny you never seem concerned when it’s a right winger with bigger issues at play.
Clown.
Bob L
The Populist
Didn’t you hear. Owen’s brought in out of district election “monitors”. Clearly the voters were intimidated into voting for him. What could can the Right do against classic Commie strong man tactics like this?
This is exactly what Hitler did in 1936. Just saying.
The Populist
California, that’s not even part of the REAL America™. Why not talk Canada while you are at it?
Look the pundit’s called it; this is a insurgency against Obama or another stolen election by the left. I am sorry but i don’t make the rules, I just follow them.
kay
@jibeaux:
There’s some truth to that, and there will be a cumulative effect when the media announce every three days that Obama’s Presidency is over.
Still, he’s held up pretty well over this constant clamor.
The economy sucks, his Presidency is declared dead every two weeks, and still, he’s soldiering on, and people still approve.
For a flash in the pan celebrity, he’s proving resilient .
I always thought he was tough as nails. I worry about the Democrats in Congress getting wobbly much more than Obama doing so.
lutton
These aren’t the stinging rebukes you’re looking for. You can go about your teabagging.
The Populist
With employment weighing heavy on voter’s minds I bet the youth vote comes back out for 2010 and rebukes the right for their obstruction.
A lot of Americans are mindless sheep BUT I dare the right to keep denying extensions to unemployment, keep talking out their asses on the stimulus doing good things and education getting harder to pay for and it all adds up to a drubbing for the right.
Kids are a lot more informed on this stuff than they come off. If the right wants to keep playing to old people and rich white men, go right ahead at their own peril.
ANY rightie that disagrees is being stupid on purpose.
Comrade Darkness
@BFR: They are stuck on a narrative, stuck on a narrative, stuck on a narrative. Following the dominant framing is both the path of least resistance and the path of highest profit. And basically, they are lazy. Until the framing breaks down and the storyline shifts, things will not change.
licensed to kill time
I, for one, am not watching the teevee today. It was on w/o sound in various places, and I noticed Steele looking giddy, Mika practically levitating next to the Scar, a parade of noxious talking heads holding forth on the Fox, and I thought “Why should I bother my beautiful mind with what they think? Ima just gonna walk on by, amble over to BJ and see what real people think.” I feel a lot better for it. (this is NOT snark)
Really, the whole media thing is so predictable – controversy, ZOMG Obama fails!, Republican Resurgence? yadda yadda yadda. Not going to pay attention. But I thank you guys for doing it for me. Far less painful this way.
The Populist
Clown…I did hear and the so-called monitors appear to be tea bag asshats getting in the faces of voters at voting places. Hmmm, no mention of that? Of course, you lost big and you want to blame it on everybody BUT the issues and the candidate. Wow.
I can talk Canada if you want because I actually READ a wide variety of material to stay informed. Thanks for offering but I will pass.
California is as much a part of this country as any other state. Get over the elitism. Garamendi’s win is another piece of the puzzle to countering this meme that the guv losses are some rebuke to Obama.
Garamendi, perennial liberal Sacramento insider wins over a righteous conservative. Hmmm. Must be Acorn again.
Please…you want to argue facts, bring it…if you want to sell me talking points, stuff it.
MikeJ
I’m just hoping next time around a Democrat runs in Virginia. Check the Think Progress piece linked by GOS. Why would anyone who wanted a Dem bother to vote for Deeds?
John S.
The Populist-
I think Bob L is pulling your leg.
The Populist
Exactly. Bob wants to argue it’s some change but in fact it’s like Kerry Vs. Bush. Weak candidate loses solely because he ran a bad campaign.
No referendum there at all. Deeds sucked. Plain and simple.
Comrade Dread
For those masochists, right now, CNN is asking if this is a “Republican Renaissance.”
BFR
@Comrade Darkness
I also assume that demographics plays a role. Newspaper subscribers and cable news watchers probably skew way further right than the average voter, so framing the issues in a way that is familiar to your consumers is probably not a terrible idea in isolation. The problem is that at least for newspapers, they also aren’t acquiring any new consumers.
soonergrunt
OT–Jim DeMint has selected California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R-Crazy) to run in the CA-Sen primary against Carly Fiorina.
We now know who the next victim of ErickSonofErickSonofErickSonofErick will be
From TPM, regarding a conference call of wingnut activists:
The Populist
I figured it out with the TM and some of the language, but I will play along to make my points. Hehe…thanks though.
kay
@Comrade Darkness:
It would be fine if they occasionally would settle on a different narrative than that being pushed by conservatives, but they don’t.
You honestly have to wonder. Do they ever think “who put these WORDS and WHOLE THEMATIC PARAGRAPHS in my mouth?”
It’s as if you had a commercial jingle stuck in your head, and could not determine how it got there. “hmmm. this song sounds familiar. Wherever did I hear it?”
Remember when they all adopted “death tax”? They don’t know how that happened. That phrase just came to them, all of them, out of nowhere.
The Populist
Gee, I thought Fiorina was laughable. She will now lose and the far right wacko ensures Boxer wins in a landslide.
Wheeee….
soonergrunt
Yup. The Conservative Night of the Long Sporks continues.
Comrade Darkness
@kay: I wasn’t defending their MO, just explaining my understanding of it. Intellectual laziness is a huge part of it. Writing a piece that runs crosswise to the narrative groove means have to research and back up what you say. That’s hard work!
The Populist
From fivethirtyeight.com:
kay
@Comrade Darkness:
It continues to amaze me. If I were a political reporter or pundit and I heard myself parroting either the chairman of the DNC or the chairman of the RNC, I would draw up short and think “hmmm. I sound like just Michael Steele, and he’s paid to shill! That’s probably not good”.
They don’t. WHOLE PARAGRAPHS. I defy you to show me any difference between Campbell Brown’s commentary last night and Michael Steele’s today.
Christ, but she’s a dope. Head’s up, Campbell! They’re playing you!
eemom
@MikeJ:
Because Deeds would have been WAY fucking better than McDonnell, that’s why.
As someone who’s gotta live in Virginia the next 4 years and beyond, I can’t tell you how much that bullshit “why bother?” attitude pisses me off. I posted this a few threads down:
Deeds may not have been the best candidate in the world, but the choice was REALLY fucking clear to anyone with half a brain in their heads. Shit, even the WaPo fought for Deeds—and please, no conspiracy theories. The Post sucks 99.9% of the time these days, but they nailed McD for the slick lying snake that he is.
There is NO excuse for not voting. NONE. You’re gonna live with the consequences no matter what, and so is everyone else. I just do not GET these people.
Stooleo
OT
Eric at Redstate is dishing up teh awesome. He issues a strong warning to Michael Steel that he will not be ignored. The people over there are seriously delusional. They have lost another seat in the house to the Dems and yet this a victory. The mind reels.
JenJen
Music to my ears, courtesy Erick Ericksson’s Twitter feed from last night:
Bring it! Mavericky.
Zifnab
@Bob L:
Firstly, the NY-23 district was a fluke. The Palin Conservatives stepped in a botched a perfectly good Congressional pickup out of sheer hubris. That’s bad news for Erick Erickson (even if he doesn’t want to admit it), but not particularly bad news for mainstream GOoPers.
On the flip side, you have the Governors’ races in NJ and VA that indicate the ’06 and ’08 elections weren’t such definitive Democratic victories that they completely hedged out Republicans. The GOP can still win elections outside the south. Social conservatism didn’t become a poison pill in Virginia. Democrats will get run out of state wide office if they continue to fail their constituents.
And Maine demonstrated that the gay rights movement still has a very, very long way to go.
So there are a lot of indicators that can be drawn from these races, and a lot of intelligent strategies that one can glean from the results – for both parties.
You can’t just pooh-pooh the Corzine loss or the Virginia flip. Obama couldn’t bring out his crushing majorities in the off season. That has big ramifications for 2010.
kay
@eemom:
I agree with that. “Lose to win!” is tea bagger stuff, so delusional. It’s not practical, and it’s still losing.
You’ll have to keep an eye on your state legislature, which is not itself a bad thing, in case your governor tries to impose his Religious Doctrine on the good people of Virginia, who thought they were voting on transportation.
Martin
@soonergrunt:
Praise Jesus!
Chuck is my assemblyman. I hope to dear God he beats Carly so he can give up his state seat to run against Boxer and get thoroughly destroyed by her. We’re Club for Growth ground zero down here, so who knows what we’ll end up with in his place, but you can’t help but improve on Chuck.
But this will be fun, fun, fun to watch.
Tonal Crow
@eemom:
There are perhaps no excuses, but there are good explanations: voters tire of voting for the lesser of two evils.
Ailuridae
This is far from a call to action but if any of you have an account over at Glennzilla’s place somebody should mention to him that Salon is using a pretty shifty ad from oilheat to allow entry into his site.
Comrade Sock Puppet of the Great Satan
“Sure, we’ve been told that two Democratic defeats in state elections prove Americans hate the Democrats in the federal government while two Democratic victories in federal elections don’t mean anything”
Silly John, it’s because incumbent governors always do well in recessions. Having to cut popular programs or rack up the taxes always goes down a storm. Especially in the worst recession since Herbert Hoover. So that’s why NJ is such a stinging rebuke to Obama.
soonergrunt
@Stooleo:
It’s like Fatal Attraction!
I hope that Michael Steele keeps his dog locked in the house.
JenJen
And, best episode of the series by far: The one where Erick Ericksson is twelve years old.
Legalize
The funniest thing about Steele’s “performance” on Morning Blow was O’Donnell needling him on the fact that the GOP got rolled in 2 more Congressional races, while the other gasbags on the panel hemmed and hawed and congratulated Steele and basically bought into the RNC talking points to the point where O’Donnell was laughed at for stating the obvious: 2 more House votes for Obama’s agenda is a big fucking deal, while 2 off-year gov. results, in states that typically flop all over the place in terms of governorships, is kind of meaningless – especially given the exit polling.
I mean, reality had absolutely fuck all to do with the “discussion.” Nothing.
MikeJ
@eemom: I would agree that all Virginians would be better off had they voted for even someone as loathsome as Deeds. However, the Democratic party might have fared better had they run somebody that people wanted to vote for rather than counting on them voting against the other guy. See Kerry v Bush, 2004.
Perhaps next time they’ll keep this in mind. I’m not holding my breath though.
BFR
@Zifnab
Well, if you combine results from WA and ME then it sort of looks like there’s a small number of voters (maybe 5% of the electorate in blue states) who broadly support gay rights but draw the line at the word “marriage.”
I’m not sure what this means but I don’t think it means that it has a long, long way to go. Gay rights has a short way to go but I think there’s an open question as to whether/when it will get there.
kay
@Zifnab:
I don’t think it’s valid to equate state races with federal races, and I prefer state races, so do most of my “activism” there. I just think that’s wrongheaded.
Interestingly, most of the people doing this kabuki have to flip the races. They have to say that the NY (federal) race was LOCAL while the state races were national. That doesn’t make any sense. “Governor” is about as state-specific as it gets. I heard Karl Rove trying to square that circle last night, and he ended up babbling, something about “big states”. Just gibberish.
Corzine was 22 points down when Obama jumped in. I can argue that Obama closed the gap, if we’re going with “NJ as referendum on Obama”. It’s just as valid.
Ailuridae
@kay:
No, kay, Campbell Brown is playing you not the other way around. She’s married to Dan Senor who, since the inauguration has been mercilessly shilling the RNC line at every turn in every possible venue. Dan Senor, in the comedy that is current mainstream Republican messaging is Gene Wilder to Michael Steele’s Richard Pryor.
Tonal Crow
@JenJen: Ooo, I *love* the sound of GOP guillotines in the morning. So who’ll play the Jacobins, and who the Thermidorians? Will it be on pay-per-view?
Ash Can
Woo-hoo!
And in other news, under the heading of “No One Could Have Predicted,” it looks like Carrie Prejean’s interminable 15 minutes may finally be up.
Comrade Sock Puppet of the Great Satan
“He criticized Fiorina for backing the stimulus and noted recent polling showing both of the candidates are within 10 points of Boxer.”
There’s no way even Fiorina is going to win against Boxer. HP employees and former employees hate her, plus Boxer will be doing victory laps after whatever form of healthcare reform passes. Plus, if the charismatic but very right-wing former AG Dan Lungren couldn’t win against Gray Davis, there’s no way a wingnut is going to win against Boxer. Erik is delusional, but we knew that already.
Pangloss
Republican victories = Triumph for Conservatism
Democratic victories = Fraud at polls
Remember: Conservatism never ever fails, it can only be failed by insufficiently conservative practicioners.
Carry on.
Violet
@eemom:
We’re lucky if over 50% of the electorate vote. Most of the time the majority of the electorate votes “don’t care” or “none of the above” by staying home. Voter apathy is a pretty big deal, but news outlets usually ignore it or pay lip service to it with statements like, “low turnout.”
Perhaps we should be like Australia and require people to vote. Or perhaps we should add a “none of the above” to every ballot. That would shake things up. I could get behind “none of the above” in a lot of lesser of two evils races.
Tonal Crow
@Pangloss:
Fixed.
kay
@Ailuridae:
I looked her up once, when she was selling Iraq. I was doing something else and I heard this goddamn sales job coming from the tv, and thought “who is this person?”
So I checked.
I believe her husband was then her fiancee, and involved with the Coalition Authority in Iraq. I think she should disclose that to her audience before she makes her war-pitch, but I’m a stickler on ethics.
thomas
eight years ago when NJ and VA govs went Dem, shortly after 9-11 and the whole country (I should say almost the whole country) went bush gaga there was no talk that I can remember that the repuke losses were any indicator of anything.
This WTF moment was brought to you by our bought and paid for BIG MEDIA!
Stooleo
Can anyone explain to me why Slate’s John Dickerson is such an insufferable douche bag.
Midnight Marauder
@Ash Can:
I think Paris Hilton might disagree with you on that point. These days, a sex tape is practically necessary to get your C-list Celebrity Card and no less than 6 minutes of fame.
soonergrunt
@Stooleo: Because he writes for Slate.
SATSQ
JenJen
@Violet: Was just reading in the Cincinnati Enquirer that voter turnout in Ohio was between 38-41% yesterday… even with a huge gambling initiative on the ballot.
It’s hard to believe we got to 70% in Ohio in 2008. That Obama, he sure can bring out the voters… something that scares the GOP, even though they’ll never admit it.
Oooh, the Enquirer also tells me that Sarah! is gracing Cincinnati for her book tour. Double-yay!! :-)
SiubhanDuinne
@Stooleo:
Maybe I wasn’t quite as discerning back in the day as (I hope) I am now, but his mother — NBC News correspondent Nancy Dickerson — was a fine reporter, or at least that’s the way I remember her. So the insufferability and douchebaggery of Son John may be just another example of the Mike-Chris Wallace, Bill-Willie Geist phenomenon. (I haven’t seen enough of Luke Russert to have an opinion, but then I was never all that big a fan of his dad either.)
IndieTarheel
@The Populist:
I’m unimpressed, and my shade is approximately post-khaki. Does that count?
Cain
The only bellwether I see is the fact that the DNC is putting lousy candidates in the field. Can we put pressure on these guys to put good progressives/liberals whatever? I mean seriously. Anyways, at least we don’t have a Michael Steele..
cain
slag
@Brick Oven Bill: When even Jake Tapper calls BS on you, you know you’ve got problems. And the fact that you’ve got problems would likely be a surprise to only you.
mickeydee
Part of what’s driving the librul media’s “narrative” is the usual Everything-Is-Good-News-For-The-GOP meme. There is also the fact that this is an odd-numbered year with little else going on, electorally speaking.
But there is also something else afoot: The regional bias of the national media, especially the political media. 2007 was an odd-numbered year too, but I don’t recall Bobby Jindal’s victory in Louisiana causing half the ruckus that McDonnell and Christie are.
But Louisiana is not much of a media capital. Northern Virginia is in the Washington media market and North Jersey is in the New York media market. That accounts for at least some of the absurd scrutiny applied to those races.
If we must have an election to over-analyze, how about the New York City mayor’s race?
Michael Bloomberg, running as a nominal Republican again, won the most Pyrrhic victory I’ve ever seen. Trotting out his endorsements from the usual DINO/Establishment suspects (Ed Koch, the New York Times, etc.) and outspending his sacrificial lamb Democratic opponent by a ten to one ratio, Bloomberg was held to just 50.5 percent of the vote! John Liu and Rick DeBlasio ran about 25 points ahead of him in the other two citywide contests. Bloomie’s poll numbers will turn completely to crap when the tax increases and/or public sector layoffs, which he artfully postponed until after the election, hit the fan early next year. Call it the January Surprise.
Most people outside New York don’t know who he is (yet), but John Liu is well positioned to be elected mayor in 2013. He’s a rising star who can secure the rapidly growing Asian vote (on top of the rapidly growing Latino vote) for the the Democrats for years to come. He’s got to focus on being a good comptroller these next four years, but he is potentially sitting very pretty indeed.
The Populist
Me neither but I do blame Deeds for running an unspectacular campaign.
I feel for you though BUT when the state starts to feel the pain the California has under Ahnuld, maybe people will think harder next time before voting for another lying conservative asshat with nothing to offer but platitudes and straw man POVs.
ds
As far as I remember the media portrayed the 2001 Democratic governor’s sweep as a victory for conservatism. What are the odds? Oh, right.
Both McGreevey and Warner were moderate Democrats. So they pulled out the tried and true “Democrats won by being conservative” line.
I’m pretty sure I heard at least one or two pundits call them “compassionate conservatives.”
The Populist
With all due respect I disagree completely. This is a message to the far right you will LOSE if you think that all people care about are abortion and this fake “fiscal conservative” message they like to sell.
These conservatives spend tons of cash on pork and other things yet people keep buying the bull. In this case, maybe a depressed area like NY-23 saw Hoffman as a carpetbagger with an extreme agenda. No matter what the tea bag SOBs tell us, the majority of people WANT fed dollars coming their way if it can add dollars to the local economy.
Hoffman knew NOTHING about the district. I also see a rebuke of sorts from a staunchly con district that told the party to stay out of it’s business. Dede would have won that district hands down. I am no fan of hers, but she at least was on the right side of many Human Rights issues (pro-choice, pro-gay rights) and didn’t let the party dictate to her how she should stand. She is wrong on fiscal stuff but I won’t go into that.
The problem with NY-23 is this: It’s a slap to the loudmouth tea bag movement. Maybe a lot of those voters watch Beck and listen to Rush but deep down they don’t want any of that nonsense in their lives. They want economic security and unfortunately the only way they will get it is somebody who will fight for the fed dollars to come to their district.
In the end, the Tea Bag movement is wrong on government spending and healthcare reform. Regular people are seeing a GOP that won’t extend unemployment but will go to bat for rich health care execs and overpaid bankers. THey may not love Obama but they do see, deep down, he’s TRYING to do something good and not rushing into mistakes the way Bush and other GOP’ers tend to do when overreacting to the situation as they are always apt to do.
People are smart enough, deep down, to see that if we are to be competitive in the world, the government has to fill in where localities cannot in terms of funding and job creation. Most people understand this. They may not fully like it, but they see it has to be done or else the risks of doing nothing would be the worst choice.
The Populist
Tim Kaine was a moderate as well and a very popular politician in VA. This is not a referendum on Dems and Obama like they are saying. It’s a reaction to a politician nobody liked and the better bullshitter won the election.
The Populist
Oh yes, too true. She ran that company into the ground. If I saw her in person I’d ask her what person in their right mind saw Compaq as a smart acquisition?
I respect her for understanding that the stimulus had to be done, but she won’t get my vote. My vote is with Babs only because California Republicans are wacky.
Brick Oven Bill
Your source sucks slag. Here is the quote offered:
“By habit, Mr. Obama didn’t watch the election returns on TV last night. He never does, says Gibbs. Not even when he’s on the ballot. He might have watched an HBO documentary on his own triumphant two-year quest for the presidency, but Gibbs said Mr. Obama had already seen it on DVD.”
But this is not likely a quote from Gibbs. The first part may very well be, but the second half cannot be, unless Gibbs has gotten worse and is now referring to himself in the third person. Then your source continues:
“If Gibbs had suggested that Obama was watching HBO instead of election results…”
But reading the first offered quote, Gibbs DID suggest this. This we obtain from reading comprehension. And we make the following three conclusions:
1. The Raw Story needs to be cooked.
2. Obama chooses to watch re-runs of himself instead of election returns, for self-esteem issues; and
3. The call on the field is upheld, and the odds of a NCM in November remain at 36%.
Brick Oven Bill
Correction: a JNM in November.
Wile E. Quixote
@soonergrunt
FTW!
Wile E. Quixote
@Stooleo
Because being an insufferable douchebag is number one on the list of requirements for getting a job at Slate. Followed by “must be able to generate massive quantities of glib, shallow, contrarian bullshit on demand”.
kay
@slag:
Limbaugh heard it from FOX, who got it wrong.
There’s a shocker.
Limbaugh makes a zillion dollars a year. Why doesn’t he get off his fat ass and check anything? Or have one of the lackeys do it.
Really. It’s just laziness. He’s always been sloppy, but now he’s flat out wrong nearly every day.
Desert Diva
Word choices include Stinging Slapping “B-word” Humiliating …choices ad naseum. What should be VERY clear for Democrats is that to disassociate oneself from party principles spells the D-word DEFEAT!
DINOS aka Blue Dogs persist in their expectations that maintaining conservative views attracts votes. This is the biggest crock I’ve heard LATELY. The only things Dinos achieve with this strategy is to lose votes as Deeds did in Virginia. Dinos do not get it…. right wing neocons aren’t going to support them AT ALL.
As is usual, MSM focused on Virginia and New Jersey as Obama failings and great GOP victories. There wasn’t any prominent coverage given to NY-23 who elected a Democrat for the first time since U.S. Grant. Neither was there mention given to Democratic gains in Washington State. SOSDD
Johnny Pez
These results were a serious blowjob to President Clinton.
snoozer
@lutton: The Force is with you lutton…
licensed to kill time
I have to submit a comment to get the dang reply arrow to show up so that’s what I’m doing. FYWP.