I don’t think that Obama should get credit for this per se, but it’s amazing that homicides went down 10% during a brutal recession (crime tends to rise when the economy is bad). I can’t find the urban versus rural breakdown, but it’s down by 30% in LA, 12% in Chicago, 20% in New York, 25% in DC, 14% in Atlanta, and 11% in Philadelphia, while the only big cities where is it up are Detroit, Baltimore and New Orleans (note: this data is for the full year, I believe, while the some of the data in the first article I linked to is for the first six months of 2009 versus the first six months of 2008), so it seems likely that murders have gone down in urban areas more than elsewhere. It would be interesting to find any other patterns as well, without getting too David Brooksy Red State/Blue State muder-at-the-Applebee’s salad bar as well?
Do people think this sharp drop (it really is sharp) is related to having a new president or related to having our first president of color or anything like that?
I have a feeling this is something that will be debated a lot, especially if rates continue to fall.
Update. More generally, the decrease in violent crime since the early 90s is remarkable (although rarely remarked on). But the only comparable dip in terms of rate I can find is from 1995 to 1999 when the economy was going gangbusters.
Update update. Alex S makes a good point:
By the way, with the decline of crime rates during the 90’s, crime lost its importance as a campaign theme. The old law-and-order republicans of the northeast lost their raison d’etre – until terrorism came along.
Legalize
No homicides were committed during the Bush presidency. Perspective here, people.
beltane
This will come as a shock to many here, but President Obama really has given hope to certain segments of the population. I cannot even imagine how utterly demoralized the country would have been had Gramps McCain squeezed out a win last November.
Martin
It’ll be a pretty cool sociological paper for someone. We’d need the breakouts on the nature of the homicides. Is it white-on-white, black-on-black, or across the board?
Ugh
I think you shouldn’t underestimate the power of the “HOLY FUCKING SHIT THERE IS A BLACK DUDE AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!” dynamic.
And I say that in all seriousness (e.g., has there ever been a non-white leader of any of the major European democracies?).
joes527
Bah.
Obama INHERITED this drop in homicides from Bush.
I’m sure that’s how it will be spun, because that’s how our politics rolls.
b-psycho
Cue racist trolls to reinterpret Doug’s statement in 3…2…1…
burnspbesq
Obligatory warning: correlation is not causation.
That said, this is good news, whatever the causes.
And this is politics, so if it’s good and it happens on your watch, claim it as your accomplishment and defy the other side to prove otherwise.
shecky
No. But the trend has been happening in the US for over a decade, and is well worth study in itself.
scav
OMG! OMG! OMG! Obama’s directly responsible for UNEMPLOYED MURDERERS!
danimal
Shouldn’t we count the almost 300 people that would have died if the Nigerian terrorist managed to detonate more than his crotch?
For contrast, there were ZERO attempted bombings by Nigerian terrorists under George W. Bush.
/snark
SiubhanDuinne
You know the line on this is going to be that GWB was preznit for the first 19-1/2 days of 2009, therefore he set the tone for the entire year and should get all the credit for this good news (well, except for Detroit, Baltimore and New Orleans. Those are on Obama).
John PM
At least in Chicago, homicides have been high for the past several years, so realistically they had nowhere to go but down. I imagine it would be the same in other metropolitan areas.
However, if I were writing for Red State, I would say the following: “Of course murders went down; gangbangers did not have enough money for both bullets and crack, so they had to choose.” /Erick Erickson.
gwangung
So, there were drops in murder rates during Democratic administrations.
Obviously, REPUBLICANS ENCOURAGE MURDER!
Demo Woman
In Atlanta the mayors race highlighted violent crime. One candidate tried to say that crime had decreased but when the news media focuses on crime morning, noon and night, people don’t believe it.
Drew
How about the fact that gun sales have surged? More guns can equal less crime…
Drew
El Cid
I’ve been interested in these stats and I’d like to see a good social science breakdown.
I have seen reports that domestic violence homicide rates in many states have gone up, so I’m wondering if there are systematic dropoffs in particular types of homicides.
I know that currently most articles quote law enforcement officials crediting new approaches to the drops, and an example is from LA’s Villaraigosa connecting last years 9% drop to a 17% drop over the prior 4 years.
Main factor or not, if I were heading a police department when these types of improvements occurred, I’d say it was us too. (And there are some reasonable arguments that more police departments have engaged in greater contact with communities as safe-keeping rather than the ‘running in with big guns’ approach that seemed to be popular a while back.)
Morbo
It’s because video games have reached a level of realism now that gives potentially violent people an outlet to murder virtual people instead of real ones.
Brick Oven Bill
Obama dedicated himself to his Chicago neighborhood in the 1990s. His Democratic organizing activities resulted in this neighborhood sending, in Obama’s wake, according to local trauma surgeon Dr. Andrew Dennis:
“We see probably an average of between 10 and 15 people who get shot or stabbed every night.”
This is at one emergency room. So I don’t see this reduction in violence being attributable to Barack. I will note however, that Glenn Beck’s TV show on FOX News started almost exactly one year ago.
Paris
I think the drop is mostly is due to an aging population. Boomers=killers.
Mike in SLO
I don’t think it has anything to do with policy or party or who’s in the White House. I thinks it’s because the population has been getting older in general. The older you get, the less likely you are to use violence to solve your problems.
El Cid
Example, one criminologist quoted in the Daily Mail on U.S. cities’ crime drops:
Now there’s sort of an implicit argument there about age factors in the unemployed who would be at home more — the recession has put not just young males out of work but many of a greater age as well.
Mark S.
Could someone who knows more about statistics tell me how reliable homicide statistics are? If a jurisdiction that averaged 20 murders a year saw 18 one year, that would be a 10% drop, but that just seems random. At what point is the statistic meaningful, i.e. the sample size big enough to get an accurate picture?
DougJ
I thinks it’s because the population has been getting older in general.
It’s only gotten one year older since 2008. That can’t be it.
kay
@John PM:
If you were writing for Red State you would have tied Obama directly to the spate of murders in Chicago, and right wingers actually did do that, so you don’t have to.
I’d stay away from this. I thought it was ridiculous when right wingers pointed to teen murders in Chicago as a not-subtle referendum on Obama, or black people, or Chicago, or whatever the hell insane connection they were trying to draw. I don’t want to validate that approach, even if it benefits him in this instance.
PeakVT
Proof that the 2nd amendment keeps the nation safe! The teabaggers have bought up so much ammunition the criminals are running short!
Ok, probably not. Beltane’s argument is more likely.
jrg
Awesome. You never cease to impress me, BOB.
Gary
@joes527:
Bush, not so much.
Much as I hate to say it, but Giuliani’s support was instrumental in getting the crime rate and the murder rate fall started in the 90s when he was mayor of NYC.
His personality was instrumental in bullying through that and a lot of other good-government reforms.
IndieTarheel
This one’s obvious: the bad guys are so ticked off about the bailouts they decided to go Galt en masse.
Califlander
DougJ, you might want to check out these links:
Research Links Lead Exposure, Criminal Activity
Lead In The Environment Causes Violent Crime, Reports University Of Pittsburgh Researcher
There’s apparently a strong correlation between childhood lead exposure and violent crime in adulthood. As the use of lead-based products has declined over the years, there has been a corresponding, but lagging, decline in crime rates.
Mnemosyne
@El Cid:
That’s one factor in the big drop for Los Angeles — in Bill Bratton we finally got a police chief who realized that treating citizens as the enemy was a really, really bad way of policing. He’s moved on but they just appointed his hand-picked successor to replace him, so it sounds like the same philosophy will continue.
LA is particularly bad when it comes to policing because we’ve had the citizens-as-enemy model for a long time now — Darryl Gates was the most famous proponent, but it goes back well before him.
DougJ
At what point is the statistic meaningful, i.e. the sample size big enough to get an accurate picture?
Good question. One thing is pretty sure, though — the entire country is big enough sample for 10% to be statistically significant.
I’m not entirely sure what the right statistical model is for this, but if you take a crude one (assign each person in the population a chance of being murdered and turn that into a random variable that you sum over the population), the standard error shouldn’t be that large relative to the expected value. In other words, I think 10% is significant for most major cities.
The Moar You Know
@Drew: Christ. Are your brains made from drywall?
eemom
sorry for OT, but I am SO fucking disgusted that I must vent.
In Hamsher’s McCarthyesque crusade to smear the name of everyone who has ever uttered a positive word about the Senate HCR bill, she’s unleashed her goons on Jonathan Gruber. I can’t link from work, but the 73 posts on the topic of his “undisclosed” contract with HHS are over there at her shithole blog, together with links to Gruber’s calm response.
And fuck Marcy Wheeler too. She’s on her knees fellating Jane just like all the rest of them.
(well, I guess that would be cunnili– oh, never mind).
/rant
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Is this like Murder On The Orient Express? Where there is a loud noise that distracts everyone (the servers come out singing “Happy Birthday!” and going Bang! Bang! Bang! with those annoying little gongs that they use) and then later David Brooks is found face down dead with 12 spork wounds all over his body, and just by coincidence all the booths nearby are filled with bloggers who each had a personal reason for doing him in?
kay
I take it back. It wasn’t right wingers that connected Obama to Chicago’s crime rate. They just parroted what they were told. By media.
“Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) — The recession is stinging in President-elect Barack Obama’s hometown, where the Chicago Police Department is slowing hiring even as murders increase.
Murders in Chicago rose 16 percent in the first 10 months of the year. The city’s homicide rate is triple New York’s and double that of Los Angeles. Thirteen pupils have died from gunfire since the semester began in September, said Mike Vaughn, a spokesman for Chicago Public Schools. ”
I never remember Bush being tied to crime rates in that bastion of law and order, Texas. No crime in Texas cities! No sir.
eponymous
I’d be interested to see how the statistics mesh with demographic trends. In other words, do the declines correlate with a decline in the demographic group that statistically commits such crimes (generally, young and male)?
Drew
@The Moar You Know:
Why not explain why you don’t agree instead of insulting… or maybe you insult because you have no explanation?
I am not a gun lover, but I can recognize that criminals could give a fuck less about whether it is legal or not to have a gun.
What is your argument?
Drew
Califlander
@Gary: Before you give Rudy too much credit — which as you noted, you’re loathe to do anyway — check out the WaPo article on crime rates and lead exposure I linked to above.
Mnemosyne
@Gary:
Given the drop we’ve seen in Los Angeles, I’d be a lot more likely to give Bill Bratton the credit for that than Giuliani.
Demo Woman
@Gary: Boston experienced the same type of drop as Giulani during that time frame. Giulani by brute force and Boston by working with churches and gangs.
Senyordave
If crime had risen, the GOP would have said it was obviously Obama’s fault. Therefore, by any standards of logic, the decrease must be due to Obama.
DougJ
Given the drop we’ve seen in Los Angeles, I’d be a lot more likely to give Bill Bratton the credit for that than Giuliani.
I tend to think it is mostly trends that are much larger than one mayor or police chief. That said, everything I have read suggests that Bratton did make a difference. Rudy does deserve credit for hiring Bratton, even if he later ran him out.
stevie314159
Neh, it’s U-7 hitting new highs.
People are even too discouraged to go out looking for someone to rob.
dadanarchist
It’s a result of a long-unfolding trend of gentrification in major American cities. I am writing this from a former crack house that is now a beautiful redeveloped brownstone on a quiet, tree-shaded block in Brooklyn.
I would be interested to see the murder-rate statistics for medium-sized cities (like Baltimore, for example): Gary, Cleveland, Oakland, the cities of New Jersey and Connecticut, etc.
Seanly
Have you tried to buy ammo lately? Even the cheap Chinese reloads are expensive now. And that stuff just gums up the barrel with residue. If ammo were less expensive, I’d be continuing my vendetta against all mankind. Or just robbing banks coz I’m a bit short this month…
Also, my local and national news tell me that I should remain very frightened of all people different than me. Beware the dusky hordes!
Alex S.
Ah well…. George Bush the First accused Michael Dukakis of being “soft on crime”. Naturally, crime rates peaked at the end of his term. Clinton went on to solve it (maybe one of his biggest, and yes, underreported achievements?). These facts don’t improve my deeply cynical views about republican policies.
PeakVT
@Mark S.: You’re right; low absolute rates can look noisy. The murder count in VT went from 17 in 2008 to 6 last year, but the average over the 2 years is about the same as the long-term average of 13. Just as the spate of attacks during the summer of the shark turned out to be noise, so to could the counts in VT. But I think the drop in DC, which has about the same population, is too large to be attributed to noise.
dadanarchist
I have yet to see Spencer Ackerman or TBogg go off the reservation yet, so calm the fuck down.
Randy P
The WaPo article has the police giving credit to improved police methods but it’s hard to believe all metropolitan police departments simultaneously made the same dramatic improvements with the same results.
Still, this sentence leaped out at me from the link.
I lived in the DC area (in MD, not in the district) during the “murder capital” days. One thing I remember was the appallingly low closure rate in DC. A big part of that, as I recall, was intimidation or murdering of witnesses.
So if you’re going to start looking for sociological factors, I’d look to see if there’s better cooperation with the police in high-crime neighborhoods and why.
El Cid
Not by Teatard standards of logic! Why, this is the result of Ronald Reagan’s policies, and as has already been clarified in the first comment, no domestic homicides occurred while George W. Bush was Preznit.
Leo
@Morbo:
This comment deserves some recognition. Quality snark.
Max
OT Question from the murder capital of the west coast… Oakland.
If I have a web address, but it appears the site isn’t live anymore, is there some sort of archive where I can pull the info from?
Randy P
@Drew:
Can you formulate your hypothesis then, as to why the surge in legal gun sales explains a decrease in criminal homicides in heavily Democratic cities?
Are you saying that the potential homicide victims in high-crime neighborhoods (in gang and drug wars, for instance) are the people who account for the increased gun sales? That they weren’t armed before? And that the fact that they are now carrying these weapons is preventing them from being shot?
Or what? I’d really like to hear your working hypothesis on before and after the gun sales stats that accounts for where these decreases in homicides are occurring.
Nutella
Obviously all good things that happen during a Democratic administration are due to the fine policies instituted by the previous Republican administration, and all bad things that happen during a Democratic administration are completely the fault of the Democratic administration. Also. Too.
DougJ
So if you’re going to start looking for sociological factors, I’d look to see if there’s better cooperation with the police in high-crime neighborhoods and why.
That’s a very interesting point.
DBrown
A big effect that is being studied was the banning of lead in fuel (in early 80’s levels of Pb in inner city children were well above any safe limits – even ray-gun’s EPA admin was shocked and supported the ban, if my Pb damaged memory serves.) Some believe this has directly resulted in the lowering of crime the last ten years or so (far less brain damage from people born or very young after that ban.)
Mnemosyne
@DougJ:
The overall drop is a nationwide trend, but given that Los Angeles had a larger drop than the other cities, I’m willing to say that 5% or 10% of the drop was because of the new policing policies.
PeakVT
@Max: http://www.archive.org/
Alex S.
By the way, with the decline of crime rates during the 90’s, crime lost its importance as a campaign theme. The old law-and-order republicans of the northeast lost their raison d’etre – until terrorism came along.
ajr22
@Seanly: Gun control? We need bullet control! I think every bullet should cost 5,000 dollars. Because if a bullet cost five thousand dollar, we wouldn’t have any innocent bystander .” “I would blow your fucking head off–if I could afford it! I’m gonna get me another job, I’m gonna start saving some money, and then you’re dead man!. You better hope I can’t get no bullets on layaway!”Chris Rock.
mcc
Nobody can afford bullets anymore
eemom
@dadanarchist:
Thank you, but I won’t calm down. I love TBogg but even he had a post up there with a half-assed defense of the Grover Norquist thing.
Of course, he could have been ordered to do it. She does run a tight ship over there, as we all found out when she booted TRex.
My Name Here
One thing that Yglesias has mentioned from time to time that makes sense to me is that as crime rates decrease, cops are less overworked, making it easier for them to solve the crimes that do happen. Since the biggest deterrent for humans comes from not severity but surety of punishment, having low crime rates and high rates of case closures leads to even lower crime rates. Its possible the overall lowering of crime since the early 90’s (possibly related to reductions in the use of lead) has really started to pay dividends as a deterrent.
Loneoak
Less crack, more pot?
Better broadband porn delivery?
The trenchant analysis of Amy Alkon has finally shamed all rude and criminal people (i.e., all black people who aren’t named Cosby) into behaving well and pulling up their pants?
Swine flu fears?
Secret ninja neighborhood watch patrols?
The goddamned Batman?
The new Mark Gormley video?
Yeah, that’s it.
DonBelacquaDelPurgatorio
@Drew:
post hoc ergo propter hoc
Perhaps the most common of the logical fallacies?
But, on the blogs, always worth a good try, eh?
Max
@PeakVT: FSM bless you.
I love this place!
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Doesn’t everybody remember the explosion in karate dojo’s during the 90s and 00s? It got to the point where there more of them on each city block than KFC and Popeye’s Fried Chicken combined. The explanation for the drop in crime rate is obvious: moar better kung-fu.
Tsulagi
Nah, in this recession they’re probably just too depressed lacking the energy to even pull a trigger. Or, for those really pissed at someone, don’t kill them, just put a non-fatal hole in them and let the health care industry really fuck them over.
Could also be some are too busy torching their homes and businesses that are financially underwater. Hard to say, a lot of variables could account for this good news.
gopher2b
Well, in Chicago it rained every fucking day this summer and now its so cold no one wants to go outside. While depressing, it keeps people from killing one another.
The Grand Panjandrum
I think it can be attributed to the iPhone. Everyone is too busy surfing the intertubes and sexting to be like all murdering people and shit.
The Raven
I wonder if perhaps the drug business is feeling the recession.
Croak!
Loneoak
@DougJ:
@Mnemosyne:
Is the change in policing at all reflective of adjustments in the ‘war on drugs’? Maybe its because I live in a spot in NorCal where most drugs are defacto decriminalized, especially pot, but I do have a feeling that there is less of a ‘war’ feel in the past 5 years.
Xenos
@Mnemosyne: What makes that argument even stronger is the fact that crime rates dropped a lot in Boston when Bratton was there, before he was hired away by NYC.
Since Bratton’s wife is now a celebrity lawyer in LA I guess we won’t be getting him back.
DonBelacquaDelPurgatorio
@ajr22:
Two things: E-bay, and reloading.
Won’t work.
Seanly
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
At least until Teh Terrorists learn them some Kung Fu and bring it on the planes!
/matthews
Of course, falling murder rates are great, but there are still too many people dieing at the hands of others. Such as my childhood friend allegedly killed by her ex-husband in December 2007. Still no trial for the evil fucktard. Sorry, alleged evil fucktard. Wheels of justice turn slow…
El Cid
Here’s a very different approach by a U.S. social scientist, but one which would certainly be in line with an “Obama effect” hope:
Homicide Rates Linked to Trust in Government, Sense of Belonging, Study Suggests
ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2009)
When Americans begin routinely complaining about how they hate their government and don’t trust their leaders, it may be time to look warily at the homicide rate.
In researching the new book American Homicide (Harvard University Press, 2009), an Ohio State University historian tried to make sense of changing homicide rates by sifting through records of tens of thousands of homicides in the United States and western Europe over the past four centuries.
He concluded that people’s views about the legitimacy of government and how much they identify with their fellow citizens play a major role in how often they kill each other — much more so than the usual theories revolving around guns, poverty, drugs, race, or a permissive justice system.
“The predisposition to murder is rooted in feelings and beliefs people have toward government and their fellow citizens,” said Randolph Roth, author of the book and professor of history at Ohio State.
“It is these factors, which may seem impossibly remote from murder, that hold the key to understanding why the United States is so homicidal today.”
While Roth said his theory may seem strange at first, it fits the evidence much better than all the other theories about what drives people to murder.
“You look at all the other theories, and they die a horrible death in the face of the evidence,” he said.
That includes theories held dear by both conservatives and liberals. If you look at the evidence over time, poverty and unemployment don’t lead to higher murder rates, as many liberals argue, he said. But locking up criminals, using the death penalty, and adding more police don’t hold the murder rate down either, as conservatives claim.
At any one point in time, researchers may find an association between one of these causes and homicide rates in a particular area. But once you try to apply those theories more broadly, at different places and in different eras, the links disappear.
For example, during the Great Depression the homicide rate in the United States went down, even while poverty was increasing. In the 1960s, the United States had more police and more people in prison than nearly any other nation on earth, along with strong economic growth — and yet the murder rate skyrocketed.
“Criminologists make a case for one theory or another by going through records for a short period of time. But if they try the same theory in colonial America or the early 20th century, it won’t fit. That’s where it helps to have a historical perspective,” Roth said.
In his analysis, Roth found four factors that relate to the homicide rate in parts of the United States and western Europe throughout the past four centuries: the belief that one’s government is stable and its justice and legal systems are unbiased and effective; a feeling of trust in government officials and a belief in their legitimacy; a sense of patriotism and solidarity with fellow citizens; and a belief that one’s position is society is satisfactory and that one can command respect without resorting to violence.
When those feelings and beliefs are strong, homicide rates are generally low, regardless of the time or place, Roth said. But when people are unsure about their government leaders, don’t feel connected to the rest of society, and feel they don’t have opportunity to command respect in the community, homicide rates go up.
This theory helps explain why the United States generally has had one of the highest murder rates since the mid-nineteenth century of any advanced Western democracy, Roth said.
“As Americans, so many of us hate or distrust our government. You can see it today in the anti-government rallies in Washington, D.C. and elsewhere. It’s been part of our culture since the very beginning, but especially since the Civil War, and it is one reason why we have such a high homicide rate,” he said.
Roth said the results of his analysis provide some warnings for the future. Data from early this year suggests the homicide rate in the United States fell during the first half of this year, which makes sense as the nation rallied around a new president who promised to help unite the country.
But events of recent months suggest the tide may be turning, and that we may soon return to the divisive, polarized politics that the candidates of both major parties tried to transcend in the recent presidential election, he said.
Roth said his analysis applies to murder among unrelated adults. Domestic violence follows a different trajectory…
Pretty Weberian, I guess, and though I sort of grok the notion in essence, at least the guy’s a serious social scientist.
Bill H
Well, the sun hasn’t had any sunspots; obviously the drop in crime is due to the lack of sunspots.
California has had an increasing water shortage; obviously the drop in crime is due to California’s increasing water shortage.
People. The fact that fact A occurred subsequent to Fact B does not mean that Fact A was caused by, or even influenced by, Fact B.
jayackroyd
freakanomics attributes this to legalized abortion. And doesn’t make a bad case for the argument.
jharp
Something that will stun you.
Indiana had the least traffic fatalities in 2009 since, and you won’t fucking believe it, 1928!
No shit. And there were 1/8 as many automobiles in 1928.
I’d sure like some smart blogger to do a post on it. It sure seems to be a remarkable achievement accomplished through a team effort of government and private industry.
uila
@dadanarchist: Baltimore’s reported murder rate for 2009 was essentially flat, with only 4 more than 2008 (238 vs 234). While it’s still treacherous for the young black male, the overall rate is still way down from 10 years ago.
El Cid
@Bill H: That’s true, unless you discover enough of a consistent A–>B relation ship over time which you do not find with C,D,E,F,G,H–>B, and which can be connected with a logical causal relationship, and then you test that working hypothesis more deeply.
So, social scientists could certainly use or develop proxies for ‘social integration’, and, convincing or not, there would be an arguable logical causal sequence, whereas so far none have proposed a close statistical tie between sunspot activity and homicide rates or a causal mechanism connecting the two.
Randy P
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
So ultimately the credit goes to Pat Morita’s “Mr. Miyagi” character in the Karate Kid movies? I’ll buy that.
@jharp:
That’s extremely interesting. I’d like to know if there’s a similar trend in other states.
The Republic of Stupidity
Hmmm… perhaps it’s because people simply can’t afford the F-in’ bullets right now…
‘Course… that would mean there’d be a corresponding rise in ‘death by frying pan’…
…any numbers on that one?
Califlander
Conservatives are more than happy to attribute the drop in violent crime to their own personal preference for harsh punishment, and not at all pleased about sharing credit with public health advocates and environmentalists. But
Notorious P.A.T.
I second that. The vast majority of violent crimes are committed by teenagers or 20agers. As their representation in the population drops, so does violent crime.
I’d like to think that electing Obama has given hope to many potential offenders, but let’s face it: most crimes in America are committed by Whitey because he (for now) outnumbers everyone else.
uila
PS, The obvious explanation for reduced homicides in this shitty economy: street gangs on the corporate plan, i.e. Too Big To Fail. Virtual monopolies mean less competition mean fewer people to shoot.
That’s at least as plausible as kung fu ninja police skillz. Plus we lock up every fool in sight. When you put 2.5 million people behind bars, you’re bound to take at least a few murderers off the street.
But yeah, the year over year drop is compelling
Notorious P.A.T.
Before that time, no one had ever heard of Glenn Beck.
Xenos
Anybody hear the latest news about Bratton?
Wikipedia links to this pr notice that he is now working for Chavez in Venezuela organizing a counter-revolutionary campaign? I think it is a stunt by Chavez, due to criticisms Bratton made here.
Still, pretty funny that it went on Wikipedia for a couple months without correction. Look for Redstate to start quoting it as proof Rudy is right.
Bruce
Also, for Baltimore, the “real” number for this year is slightly down – several of the homicides were deaths that happened in 2009 to people who were attacked (shot or stabbed) in previous tears and finally succumbed to their injuries. Too, also.
But I think the lead issue is one of the most important factors (obviously not the only factor, but highly relevant). In Baltimore, the map of the neighborhoods where it is known that there’s unremediated lead paint matches up very closely with the maps of homicides and most other violent crimes. We could have spent the money and gotten serious about it long ago – but like social v military spending, doing something about that would have been too costly, but police and prisons are somehow free.
jharp
Randy P,
“@jharp:
That’s extremely interesting. I’d like to know if there’s a similar trend in other states.”
This is all I could locate.
Preliminary reports by the Ohio State Highway Patrol indicate that traffic fatalities in 2009 should fall below 1,000 for the first time since officials started tracking the number in the 1930s.
El Cid
Maybe people are just refusing to die!!! It’s the zombies, people, the ZOMBIES!
Dr. Morpheus
Uh, for the folks trying to link it to lead or aging population, try rereading what DougJ wrote. This is a 10% drop, nationwide, IN A SINGLE YEAR.
The number of lead addled teens and aging boomers hasn’t changed that much IN A SINGLE YEAR.
El Cid, I think has hit it. I think it really does have to do with people’s alienation from society, government, and their neighbors.
Right now that’s the only explanation, backed up with statistics, that can account for this change in such a short time span.
Dr. Morpheus
BTW, I’m referring to El Cid’s quote of the sociological study, not the zombie comment…
tootiredoftheright
@Dr. Morpheus:
If the alienation from gov’t thing causing more crime is true wouldn’t the teabaggers be commiting crimes in masse?
Phoebe
@Bruce: Well, I’m as anti lead-paint as anyone, but lead paint and crime both correlate w/poverty, right? One doesn’t necessarily cause the other. Plus, the damage is very mostly done to kids under 6, and while it’s probably true that they tend to stay in the same place for their homicidally-prone years [not sure what those are, but it has to start older than 6], I’d like to see a study that looks at homicide [broken down by heat of passion vs. premeditated] and early lead exposure. Or something.
tootiredoftheright
@Bruce:
The problem I with the lead poisioning causing violent crimes is the mere fact that lead poisioning can be treated but if you treat these people they are still violent. So if the lead caused them to be violent then they should be locked away like we do with the violently insane for most of their loves or all of their lives with no hope of parole since they have no responibility for their actions.
Tom Ames
@Phoebe
Lead paint and crime do indeed both correlate with poverty. But there has been a clear decline in both lead exposure and crime, while I don’t believe that there’s been such a decrease in poverty levels.
@tootired
Lead poisoning at an early age leads to developmental deficits that are not treatable. But why does this present a problem for you as an explanation for violent behavior in terms of lead poisoning? Because you don’t like the consequences?
El Cid
@Dr. Morpheus: That’s only because statistical analysis of the zombie influence is so far lacking, and funding is hard to come by.
I should emphasize that I quoted the recent study / book as an example of a serious social scientist advancing an integration/alienation type analysis. I’m sure that other scholars would emphasize combinations of other likely causes, and compare weighting of factors and theories, etc.
Here‘s another look by social scientists who find value in the “anomie” approach:
Ailuridae
@Brick Oven Bill:
I lived in Hyde Park in the 1990s. The idea that there were a large number of shootings in Hyde Park at that time is impossibly fucking stupid.
The Egg
There was an interesting article in the New Yorker about murder in the US which noted a (inverse) correlation between crime rates and “public faith in government and trust in elected officials.”
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/atlarge/2009/11/09/091109crat_atlarge_lepore#ixzz0c3TZv5UO
Zach
To defend Baltimore a bit, the last two years had the two lowest number of murders in the past two decades. And we’re rapidly being overtaken by Detroit for #1 per capita murder rate (in cities bigger than 100k)! Detroit also had 4 more murders than 2008; given that the population in Detroit is declining and Baltimore’s is rising slightly, we’ll have to relinquish the crown soon enough.
PaulW
I dunno if anyone else has tossed this hypothesis out earlier, as I only glanced through the replies on this thread… but has anyone considered the reason that homicides are down is because all these forensic crime shows (CSI, NCIS, Law&Order) are convincing most people that they can’t get away with murders anymore?
CalD
@Alex S.:
The COPS program that Clinton championed actually seemed to do some good in reducing violent crime nationwide. There might have been other factors at play as well, but I really think this is one of the primary reasons Republicans hated (and feared) Clinton so much.
All the time I was growing up, Republicans perennially ran on a platform of Law and Order, balancing the budget and trimming down the federal bureaucracy — we’re talking drinking-game regularity — then blaming Democrats for the fact that none of these things were ever actually accomplished. Then along comes some asshole Democrat who actually does all three and neutralizes all their best talking points. And ooh boy, did that ever make them mad.
Joe K.
Murders up in Bawlmer? Must be ’cause they lost McNulty.
(SPOILER FOLLOWS)
I am so pissed that the writers of “The Wire” killed off Omar two eps before the finale. He was the only character I really cared about by that point.
burnspbesq
@Brick Oven Bill:
So angry people are shooting their teevees instead of each other?
Whatever works, I guess.
Adrienne
@Dr. Morpheus:
And young black males, who are responsible for/involved in nearly 50% of the murders in this country, undoubtedly feel less alienated from society, government and the country as a whole since we’ve elected the first black president. Those are the facts. When you see someone who looks like you, listens to the same music you do, and came from a broken home just like you and many of your peers, become the most powerful man in the world, that shit makes a HUGE difference in how you connect to a country that has beaten you down, stole your manhood, and generally locked you out of power for 200+ years. How could it not?
El Cid
@PaulW: If you’re dealing with real stupid people to begin with, those shows might just instead convince them that they now know the tricks to fool the cops.
joe from Lowell
The drop in crime under Obama was caused by…the previous drop in crime.
When crime drops below a certain level, it hit a tipping point, where 1) crime ceases to be considered normal in places where it previously had been, so 1a) people are more vigilant about reporting/stopping it and 1b) people stop looking at criminality as something an ordinary person like themselves might do, and 2) the police and courts and social services agencies aren’t so overwhelmed that they can actually bring enough resources to bear to close cases and get the criminals off the streets.
Adrienne
@Joe K.: .
Ditto. An’ dat’s why dey kilt him.
But you gotta love the point they made by having the little dude pull the trigger on the one dude nobody could touch.
Billy
Don’t have the research handy, but I don’t the assumption that crime increases during economic downturn is true. Crime went down during the Depression, I’m pretty sure. I know I’ve heard that in some report. Of course, that may have made much to do with repeal of prohibition. Florida’s big cities in the 20s prohibition-era land boom had murder rates in the 60s and 70s – compare that with 37 that Detroit has today.
Jerry 101
It’s odd that homicide rates are declining. From the campaign ads that have been running in Illinois, I woulda thunk that crime rates were soaring.
Lots of people running for governor claiming to be tough on crime.
More ads related to the toughness of Candidate A’s crime stance or the weakness of his opponent’s stance.
Uriel
@Dr. Morpheus:
But a guy can dream though! Amirite? You know it!
What? It’s the internet, not an 8-track- its not like there’s any boomers reading this stuff.
monkeyboy
@El Cid:
On thing that the racists and armed survivalist groups often point out is blacks behaving badly during race riots such as the 1992 Rodney King riot in LA and the 1968 Marin Luther King assassination riots. This view of blacks being lawless animals led to the Katrina shootings of blacks trying to walk out of New Orleans by white vigilantees.
Poor urban blacks do feel a lot of oppression and anger that is mainly suppressed, but blatant oppression or official whitewashing can trigger race riots.
I (white) was at an Acorn meeting a while after Obama took office. Most of the people there were poor, black, and very upbeat. A bunch of them seemed to be respected community leaders and opinion makers. I heard no generalizations along the line of “the man always tries to keep you down” though they still criticized Republicans. This was in marked contrast to opinions I heard during the Bush administration.
So it may be that the urban communities’ group consciousness contains less anger which leads to less violence. Then again, it may just have to do with the weather. The most violent crimes in my area are committed on stinky hot days where everybody is outside at night and drinking, because it is too hot to stay indoors. As I recall, last summer was unusually cool.
[ errm, what in this comment put it into the “your comment is awaiting moderation” queue? Is there anyway to find out what triggered this? ]
Uriel
Ok, that’s strange. My last comment went into moderation, and I have no idea why.
Well, if anyone’s around in this thread when it does show up and can figure it out, I’d be interested in hearing any explanations, if only to avoid future trips to limbo.
And also because depriving the world of my wit for the ages for even one second longer than necessary is nothing less than a moral hazard too horrifying for the human race to bear. So, you know, there’s that as well.
Dean Booth
If current trends continue, we will have no crime because everyone will be in prison.
The Other Steve
@Califlander: You beat me to it. I found those studies remarkable when I first encountered them a few years ago.
It really makes you think.
Platonicspoof
@monkeyboy:
WP may be an amorphous creature from blog to blog and day to day, but once awakened:
Four links and your out.
(And three exclamation points and your out.)
@Uriel:
WP is relentless, merciless and cares not at all about humanity.
You Do Not Want To Be On The List.
tootiredoftheright
@Tom Ames:
” But why does this present a problem for you as an explanation for violent behavior in terms of lead poisoning?”
Because some people will use it as an excuse so it will be a twinky defense (yes I know that was evidence of a mental change not that twinkys caused the murder) when the person commiting the violent crimes was aware of what he was doing was legally wrong.
Comrade Sock Puppet of the Great Satan
This decline really is surprising – I was expecting a big surge in petty crime and had a mental bet on Crystal Meth playing the same role as Crack did in the early 1980s.
In terms of secular trends of decline in crime, I’d put lead controls and birth control as being a big contributor, as well as gentrification of the inner cities.
No idea why there’d be a sudden step change downwards though in the past year.