The neocons are itching for battle. There are dueling Kaplan pieces recommending the United States go to war with Iran (Applebaum and Cohen). Cohen’s advice is particularly idiotic:
It may be time for Barack Obama, ever the soul of moderation, to borrow a tactic from Richard Nixon and fight crazy with crazy. The way things are going, it would be crazy not to.
It will be interesting to see how this goes. I guess the next stops on the war tour are The New Republic, Slate, and then the Sunday morning shows. I wonder if Sullivan will call anyone fifth columnists this time.
El Cid
Surely there could be no adverse consequences to attacking Iran. We will be greeted as
liberatorsdetonators.Rathskeller
When they are going to stop publishing that goddamn moron?
MikeJ
Perhaps Cohen wants us to shoot down more Iranian airliners.
Brian J
I pay much more attention to domestic policy than foreign policy, so perhaps I missed something in the last couple of weeks, but exactly what has changed that would make this a desirable course of action? Leaving aside whether a bombing would be a wise move regardless of the underlying factors, I just can’t think of anything. (And wouldn’t it be a bombing? Are they really going to recommend an occupation?) I just don’t get it. The way some people recommend military action as if it’s some sort of radio call in prank is just astonishing. I have no idea what military service is like, but I like to think I have enough sense and respect not to think like these guys.
MNPundit
Seriously why bring up Sullivan? Are you even bothering these days? Maybe you should read some Niebhur.
Steeplejack
__
This is über idiotic. It’s the kind of rhetorical flourish that looks good on paper–at least to the author–but has no practical meaning at all. What would be the useful “crazy” thing to do with regard to Iran? Cohen leaves out that part.
And the foreign policy of the United States is like an ocean liner, not your dad’s speedboat on Lake Kamanawannalaiea. You can’t just yell, “Hey, guys, watch this!,” spin the wheel and hit the gas. Or at least you shouldn’t. It hasn’t turned out too well for us the last few times.
Ugh
Jesus Fucking Christ.
Napoloen
The idea of attacking Iran is completely insane. It is 5 times more insane then the insane idea of attacking Iraq, which itself was an insane idea on its face.
The WaPo can’t die a quick enough death.
jenniebee
Mutually Assured Destruction worked fine against the Soviet Union, sure, but the Iranians have First Strike capa… well, they have so much land mass… huh.
WTH. Cohen looks at Iran and he doesn’t see a people who looks at itself as the last Shiite bastion with a duty to survive and propagate their religion (I don’t know if they are, but why not?) The point is, he looks at Iran and sees a Nuclear Martyr state with no other objective – none – than to eliminate Israel.
Sure, they haven’t really done anything directly to Israel in how long? and their pursuit of nukes could, just could, be explained by our policy of invading sandy countries anytime we feel like it, but that must be a ruse.
What a racist shit.
Chris Johnson
What?? o_O
rachel
@Brian J: Nothing has changed, and that’s what bugs them. it’s going to continue to bug them until Iran gets bombed back to the stone age. Personally, I hope they go to their graves with their war itch unscratched.
ed
We’ve heard this eight years before.
Ladies and gentlemen, Tom Friedman, 16 February 2002:
Really. He wrote that and he’s still a columnist for the most respected newspaper in the U.S. and possibly the world. No kidding. How did that not thinking through the “axis-of-evil idea” or invading Iraq based on the notion that you’re demonstrating your craziness work out? Did Mr. Cohen think this through? I don’t think so and I don’t like it. And I don’t give a frog’s fat ass what Tom Friedman thinks about it.
Mike Kay
muther fucking chicken hawk cowards who never served a single day in uniform.
dmsilev
I’ve read Cohen’s column twice and I can’t for the life of me figure out what he’s trying to argue. Yes, yes, bomb bomb Iran, but why? Just because no one will expect us to? Nobody would expect Obama to give the next State of the Union address via interpretive dance, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.
-dms
mr. whipple
I’m sick of the insane.
Mike Kay
I don’t even know what these idiots are talking about regarding “nixon fighting crazy with crazy.” History shows the North Vietnamese did not give up, rather, it was the United States who did.
null pointer exception
Somehow I get a feeling that Cohen dreamt up that line sometime during the last week and the whole article is an excuse to use it.
Sarcastro
Since when was invading a nation that did not attack us, had no capability of attacking us and didn’t support the people who did attack us NOT fucking batshit insane?
And since that piece of whackaloon stupidity didn’t seem to deter the Iranians one god damned bit what kind of drooling troglodyte would suggest an entirely different failed childish tactic of acting crazy might be the way to go?
Jesus fucking Christ on crutches, they think of war in the same way a 10 year old thinks of going to prison. “If you act crazy enough they leave you alone!”
chopper
it would be irresponsible not to speculate that it would be crazy not to fight crazy with crazy. also.
Folderol and Ephemera
Wait, so is Cohen saying that the Soviet Union should have responded to Nixon’s “Madman Strategy” by initiating a bombing campaign to try and destroy the U.S.A.’s nuclear capacity?
That’s . . . uh . . . interesting.
Cheryl from Maryland
Yes, when in doubt go with the Crazy Nixon Option. Idjit.
Whoever writes the contracts at WaPo needs to think about a senility clause.
Mike Kay
Why won’t richard cohen die?
Daddy-O
And if anybody knows crazy…
rachel
@Sarcastro:
That how it works for North Korea.
Mike Kay
I’m sorry to say, Joe Klien was right:
Daddy-O
Stupidity. It’s universal.
Why would we attack Iran, especially now, after we went through six-plus long years of war and occupation, the subduing of Iraq, killing Saddam and handing the entire country over to the Shi’ite mullahs?
Iran is confused. Did they say something to insult us? Because after the trillion-dollar gift George W. Bush gave Iran, after that extreme kindness and global strategery, how could we EVER attack Iran?
Brian J
@dmsilev:
I’d have a lot of respect for him if he did do that.
Daddy-O
Anybody who thinks that war makes ANY country safe–including Israel–is insane. Clearly. Anybody who says such things out loud is either insane or is a propagandist with a terribly flawed agenda.
Or maybe a war profiteer. Also.
BC
Nixon had his demons and was in reality a little crazy (as were all those other red-baiters during that period and as are the neocons in our time). Obama’s whole persona is one of a reasonable, pragmatic man. I can’t imagine anyone in the world buying the “Obama’s a crazy man that we can’t restrain and he has his finger on the nuclear button!” meme at all – in fact, I just about fell off my chair laughing at the image of Obama being a crazy man. But it shows the frustration of the neocons because they are not getting instant gratification on the issue of Iran’s nukes. Talk about a 3-year-old mentality! And these people are writing columns trying to inform the American people. Time for Washington Post to go out of business.
Chad N Freude
And what could possibly go wrong in a war with Iran?
Face
Your constant inside-baseball refs are exceedingly tiresome.
Mike Kay
Do the neo-cons says how they’re gonna pay for the new war, because after all, they keep telling us, in a deficit environment, all spending measures must be revenue neutral.
Alex S.
Oh yeah, fight crazy with crazy! Sometimes you gotta do crazy things, regardless of whether they are right or wrong.
burnspbesq
@Cheryl from Maryland:
Careful what you wish for. Fred Hiatt would probably use that clause to get rid of Gene Robinson and Ezra Klein.
gwangung
Nuts and bolts: we can’t stop Iran’s nuclear program with a simple bombing. Or a series of bombings. We have to invade, occupy and (probably) commit genocide.
That needs to be brought up time and time again, because these asses are willfully blind to the consequences of actions.
Rick Taylor
__
I also know that Saddam Hussein is developing weapons of mass destruction and is concealing from the world community.
__
Are we really going to fall for this twice? Even otherwise rational parties like Obama is falling for this. He wants to use sanctions to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons which we’re all certain they are intending to do, despite having no evidence. That’s a hell of a lot better than going to war with Iran to stop them, but it’s still pretty screwed up.
Mojotron
I’m going to take Cohen’s advice and convince the mentally-unstable homeless guy in the park near my office that Cohen’s a member of the CIA who’s been transmitting secret messages directly into his skull. At this point running over someone with a shopping cart filled with old newspapers and smearing him with feces is less crazy than bombing Iran.
SGEW
@Mojotron: WHAT IS THE FREQUENCY, RICHARD?!?
bayville
Figures the modern-day “liberal” WaPo would openly advocate another unwinnable war, through columns penned by two of its growing army of ignorant bootlickers, on the 65th anniversary of the Battle of Iwa Jima.
Iwa Jima: The deadliest battle in modern U.S. history. More than 7,000 dead. 250 men went to the top of the Mountain to mount Ol’ Glory. Only 27 returned.
And this was a battle that we won.
DanF
Obama should throw feces at Ahmadinejad. Then he should thump his chest and stare him down. Then the world will know that we are a serious nation.
Oh! Or he could go all Mel Gibson ala Lethal Weapon on him. Like grab him on the top of a tall building and make him jump. That would be awesome! And threaten to shoot himself in the head! Also, too.
Michael D.
@MNPundit:
Wondering the same thing myself. Absolutely nothing to do with the post. But mentioning Sullivan is like red meat to this gang. To borrow an idea from Joe Biden:
“A noun, a verb, and Sully”
That constututes “a post” here sometimes.
Brian J
And to think last week the Washington editor of Newsmax said that while The Post’s page was getting better, it was still too liberal for his tastes.
Ash Can
@Mike Kay: It looks like this is pretty much what Cohen and Applebaum are thinking — fuck the US (and everyone else), just do whatever it takes to serve Israel’s interests. Even if it means nuking anyone insolent enough to even question the motives of the Israeli government.
Of course, no one will call these two drooling idiots out as the filthy traitors they are, because they’re just a couple of very thoughtful and serious journalists exercising their right to free speech, don’tcha know.
soonergrunt
@Mike Kay:
Awesome.
@Mike Kay: This is the second time you’ve asked that about a WaPo columnist. I’m telling you, they don’t die because they feed on the blood of virgins.
@dmsilev:
Well, if anybody else points out the glaringly obvious, we’re antisemitic. If Klein or Spencer Ackerman points it out, well, that’s just self-hatred. That’s OK.
@Face: That’s not inside baseball. I can’t tell if you’re being snarky or you really don’t know what that refers to?
@Mojotron:
Only a little bit.
moderation? wtf, over?
Linda Featheringill
And what exactly are we to attack Iran with? The whole military is stretched to the point of breaking. Money is scarce. The people of Iran don’t want to be invaded and would not support us. I don’t think we would have much support from allies [although Australia hates to see a good fight that it is not a part of].
The sum of these factors is this: IF WE WERE TO ATTACK IRAN, we would lose.
Is that part of America First? No thank you. I’ll pass.
cmorenc
I just read Cohen’s column, which, had he ended it a paragraph earlier, would have been a sensibly insightful essay on the role of madness vs rationality in decision-making and posturing by various countries’ leadership in international relations.
It’s that last paragraph where Cohen himself spins off into insane, incoherent, lethally dangerous stupidity:
As others have noted above, just WTF did Cohen have in mind with suggesting that Obama “fight crazy with crazy”? Doing something insane with nuclear weapons? How the Hell does a columnist spewing this kind of inchaote drivel keep his position at a supposedly respectable, influential national paper like the WaPo? The answer is unfortunately that the WaPo has long ceased to be worthy of respect as any sort of responsible, accurate news outlet, despite still keeping a couple of solidly worthwhile voices like Ezra Klein in their employ. (Unfortunately, too may of the rest of the WaPo’s editors and columnists seem simply…to well, be hearing batshit insane neocon voices in their heads).
geg6
Just because Israel is determined to commit national suicide and the neocons want us to go down with them, we’re supposed to fall for the same bullshit gambit they pulled in 2003?
Fuck this shit. These assholes like Cohen seem to think Israel is the 51st state. Well, it’s not and just because Bibi has brought the crazy does not mean anyone on earth, let alone Obama, wants to be just like Bibi. Hell, even the Jews I know think Bibi, his Israeli minions, and his American enablers are batshit insane.
Ken
Mojotron @37, wrong kind of crazy. That’s the kind where people avoid you out of disgust. Cohen wants the crazy where people fear you. Replace your homeless guy with something along the lines of John Kramer from the Saw movies – an unknown madman who runs around kidnapping fatuous columnists and murdering them in grisly fashion.
Chad N Freude
@Linda Featheringill: You’re overlooking a few Fundamental Truths:
Our military is infinitely superior to any other and can achieve any objective.
We can pay whatever it costs through tax cuts.
The people of Iran hate the regime and would welcome us as liberators.
Conquering Iran would stabilize the Middle East.
We cannot possibly lose any war. After all, we’ve won every one we’ve ever fought.
geg6
@Ken:
I know I’d seriously consider investing in a screenplay with this plot. I bet it would make an awesome movie.
geg6
@Chad N Freude:
You forgot that whole spreadin’ democracy throughout the Middle East thing.
Ash Can
@gwangung:
Like I said, their priority is Israel, not the US. And as such, invasion, occupation, and genocide are features, not bugs, especially when they can get some other country to do the dirty work for them. Seriously, why should they care what another war would do to the US? When push comes to shove, it’s not their country.
Ed Drone
Hmmm… I recall another mid-East strongman who made extravagant claims, ruled harshly, and thumped his chest, too. Just a few short years ago, it was. Now, what was his name? Siddartha? No. SadSack? No. Ah, yes — Saddam!
Whatever came of him, and the shock-and-awe tactics we planned to use on him and his people?
Hmmm???
Ed
Kryptik
Can we just rename the paper to the Glass Iran Daily? That’s what it seems to be as of late.
Tyro
It may be time for Barack Obama, ever the soul of moderation, to borrow a tactic from Richard Nixon and fight crazy with crazy.
When i read this quote, I thought it was advice to Obama about how to deal with republicans, and I thought, “hey, that’s pretty good advice!”
cat48
There is no way to prepare for a strike on Iran by Israel. That’s what they suspect will happen at which time Iran will strike our allies in the region and our troops.
I have a feeling Obama will offer Israel a nuclear umbrella so maybe they won’t strike and make it clear that if it is breached they will pay quickly. This seems the most likely and desirable solution based on the foreign policy articles I have read.
There is no way anyone knows for sure where all their nuclear sites are to even strike them. Israel just bought drones as large as 747’s that can handle over a 12 hr flight to be used for spying and they do have the ability to strike with them.
I have read that Saudi Arabia and perhaps Egypt are already included in a nuclear umbrella, but that is always denied by the govt. No more wars please.
Mnemosyne
@Rick Taylor:
If the Iranians aren’t developing a bomb, then they’re idiots. It’s pretty clear that they are and that they’re doing it because they learned the lesson that the Bush administration was teaching to Iraq and North Korea: if you don’t have a nuke, we’ll overthrow your government, but if you do have a nuke, we’ll just stand at a distance and shake our fist at you.
If I had the US insisting that I was part of the “axis of evil” right before they invaded my next-door neighbor, I’d be developing a nuke, too.
Emma
Speaking for myself and not the site owner or contributors: To all of you so terribly sick of the kind/style of posts around here, please feel free to decamp to more acceptable sites. The interwebs are a biiiiiiig place…
And as to the WP, yall have to remember, they once upon a classic of true journalism, brought down a criminal Republican president. They have been apologizing ever since.
MNPundit
Can I also push back against this interpretive dance shit? Obama dances white, we’ve seen it. Do you REALLY want to see that on the floor of Congress?
AxelFoley
@Napoloen:
Let’s shrink it so we can drown it in a bathtub.
FlipYrWhig
For decades, I haven’t understood why Israel is in this special position where we have to make special efforts to help them do what they do. Maybe that made sense in 1967. It’s old. They’re not a weak and vulnerable nation anymore. If Israel has a problem with Iran and Iran with Israel, here’s a radical notion, let _them_ figure it out. I don’t see that region in terms of Big Bully Iran and Scared Victim Israel. I’m not sure how many people do. It’s definitely much more widespread in the corridors of power in DC than at large in the country.
jrg
We’ve needed journalists in Iran for quite some time, seeing as how just about everything we know about the Green Revolution is coming from twitter feeds and anonymous videos.
So here’s a “crazy” idea for Cohen: get your ass over to Iran and report on what’s going on before we commit billions of dollars and thousands of lives to another war… Or is “crazy” only “good” when someone else has to put their ass on the line?
Fucking chickenhawk.
AxelFoley
@ed:
Wow, I know Friedman was a major cheerleader for the war with Iraq, but I didn’t know that fool wrote that.
And the Times had the gall to publish it, too.
What. The. Fuck?
Seriously, what the fuck?
SteveinSC
@Mike Kay:
Occam’s Razor I.e., easy to see if you are willing to see. In Cohen’s case, it’s just soooooo easy.
chopper
@Michael D.:
it’s true, dougj et al’s threads are nothing compared to your oh, wait.
Linda Featheringill
To Schadenfreude:
Well said!
Ash Can
@Mnemosyne: This. Between the Israeli right wingers and a US that has an alarming tendency to go off the deep end every few years or so, I’d be crapping my pants if I were an Iranian. I’d be all for my government developing nukes. All the jerk-offs who just assume other countries are going to ignore saber-rattling from a nuclear-power neighbor and its big nuclear-power friend, or who think said countries should just bend over and take it when those nuclear powers tell them to, are on crack. I wouldn’t care so much except that it means we end up with crackheads running our foreign policy.
soonergrunt
Do tell us of the 747-sized drones of which you speak.
195-ft or 224ft wingspan
63.5-ft tail height
232-ft to 251-ft length
Weight between 352,000lbs to 473,000lbs
That’s one big damn drone.
That no one has ever seen. Or heard of.
SteveinSC
@jrg: Hey, during the height of our most glorious war in Eyeraq there were some hoo-ha chairborne warriors where I worked. Take names, kick ass, etc. Sick of these chickenhawks (non-veterans), I offered to buy anyone of them a ticket to Eyeraq, a rifle and pay $1000 to their survivors should they perish doing God’s Holy work. Surprisingly, no takers.
SenyorDave
If Cohen has kids of draft age, hopefully they will be the first ones called up when we re-institute the draft. Which would definitely be necessary if we attacked Iran.
I’m guessing Cohen is a classic chicken hawk. After all, I would be crazy not to assume this. It would also be crazy not to assume that Cohen has no problem with a strike on Iran since it woul kill a bunch of those swarthy Iranians. I’d be crazy not to think that.
Svensker
Thers’ comment on Cohen last fall:
jrg
SteveinSC – I’ve made similar suggestions to chickenhawks in the past. In Cohen’s case, his stance is even more idiotic, because the media is not doing it’s job… It’s not reporting from Iran.
As a “journalist”, Cohen’s job is to inform (I’ll forget the fact that he’s just a professional armchair commentator for now). Until he’s able to fulfill his journalistic obligation, he needs to STFU with his war-mongering bullshit and stop waxing idiotic about how clever it is to act crazy when dealing with matters of national security.
celticdragonchick
@Michael D.:
I noticed that as well. The Sully derangement thing is rather amusing, in a disturbing way.
As far as I can tell (and I read Sully every day), he has regretted the war with Iraq and is absolutely not in favor of a war with Iran. Just mention his name though, and Pavlovs dogs start drooling.
Redshirt
What’s even “better” about the Neocons lobbying on behalf of all things Israel is no doubt at least half (maybe more) of the people doing so are doing so in hopes Israel gets destroyed — cuz it’s written in The Book, dontchya know. Got to bring Armageddon to Judea.
Now that’s policy work!
Svensker
@Mike Kay:
The world is a much more complicated place than I had ever imagined. Joe Klein IS right. And fucking brave for sticking his neck out: divided loyalties? Hooboy, that’s a red flag for the bullies.
Remember November
Is Kaplan a front for David Horowitz’s MIC (KEY) mouse operation? And pardon me but WTF is a test prep company doing being involved in global politics?
ksmiami
We are broke, bad at colonialization, and the Persians would defeat us, or at least destroy Israel if we attacked. WTF???? I think the Washington Post needs to die a quick and painful death, that or can’t we send Hiatt to the hills of Afghanistan??
KILL THE NEOCONS
cat48
@dmsilev:
You make me laugh. Uh, personally, I thought BO did put on quite a performance at the SOTU. Almost gleeful and taunting like he had a good drug beforehand. Also, the constant smiling. My husband and I were amused.
Tsulagi
@soonergrunt:
It’s the 747-MOAD derivative.
Which is proof it exists. Those Jews are sneaky suckers.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@soonergrunt: Yeah, I’m in the drone business and the largest one out there is Global Hawk, which I’m pretty sure we’re not selling to Iran. So a link would be nice.
celticdragonchick
@Linda Featheringill:
I think it more likely that neither side would win. We can destroy the entire country and lay waste to all before us. Does that “win” whatever objectives we ostensibly set out to achieve?
The expenditure in blood and treasure would not likely justify whatever it is we set out to do in Iran. Now, I have no problem with covert actions in theory. Iran does nasty stuff under the table, and so do we. If they actually seemed to be getting ready to test a nuke or something very provocative and destabilizing, I would suggest a fatal “accident” for one of their rustbucket Victor III subs or some such. (Sorry about that sub mishap. All hands lost, you say? Wow. You know, preventative maintenance is a real bitch on old Soviet equipment. Maybe you should look into that…!)
Actually committing to an open war to do what…?
I can’t fathom that. Israel has 200 deliverable nuclear weapons, and Iran knows that. Nothing is gonna happen.
ksmiami
The Buzzcocks are still the awesome… just had to interject some fun into the death and destruction thread
soonergrunt
@celticdragonchick: It goes back to the whole “decadent left enclaves on the coasts [that] may well mount a fifth column” that he said in the Wall Street Journal in the days after 9/11. Very few things get somebody’s dander up than being called a traitor. By a Brit. One that, at the time he did it couldn’t even serve in the armed forces himself because of his issues, and wouldn’t have been caught dead anywhere near a recruiting station anyway.
Did he ever apologise or do or say anything remotely like an apology?
cat48
soonergrunt
@soonergrunt: To say nothing of the fact that Sullivan was what many people considered to be an ‘intellectual’ conservative.
I know the very idea is funny, but some still believed in things like the tooth fairy, the easter bunny and intellectual conservatives back in those days.
Silver Owl
My nephew deploys for Afghanistan in two weeks. He’s going to his job. Just like my other nephew did his job in Iraq.
Cohen sits on his spoiled pampered leeching non-thinking ass demanding others make him feel like he is something other than a blood sponge of a man. It is never ever going to happen. Cohen’s rot is his own to fix, not the military’s.
Comrade Dread
Why the fuck does anyone still listen to these people?
Seriously, after Iraq, these bastards should be pelted with rotten fruit every time they leave their think tanks and newspapers.
Brachiator
@Brian J:
The sabre-rattling is getting more intense. Iran, strangely, stupidly, insists on upping the ante with respect to its nuclear development. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Clinton noted (fanned) fears about Iran becoming a military dictatorship. And in Russia, the prime minister of Israel was calling for extra tough sanctions against Iran if it continues to defy the international community.
This kind of thing inevitably leads neocons and their enablers to get hot and bothered for military action.
I also strongly suspect that Dick Cheney and other high ranking Bush officials push their war lust via friendly journalists in an attempt to influence foreign policy.
The neocons left rationality behind a long time ago. They are convinced that our Iraq adventure would be successful sometime in the future if only the American people had been smart enough to vote the McCain/Palin ticket.
Socraticsilence
Yeah, that’s a smart move- whatever you can say about Obama domestically his return to the Bush I/Clinton “responsible coalition builder” model for Foriegn Policy is a freaking breath of fresh air- I mean there’s a reason that International Public Opinion of the US has basically done a complete 180 since 2007. Oh, and where’s the money for our Glorious Crusade against Islam part III going to come from (that might seem over the top but c’mon theres almost no chance it isn’t percieved that way)- do deficit only matter when cutting them helps kill poor people?
arguingwithsignposts
Here’s my sully derangement syndrome from several months ago. The guy is an idiot. A well-paid idiot, but an idiot nonetheless.
ETA: WaPo can DIAF too, for hiring that idiot Hiatt.
licensed to kill time
@Kevin Phillips Bong:
Here’s a link to the Israeli Eitan drone.
It’s as big as a 737, wingspan 86 feet.
soonergrunt
The neocons push bombing because of two things–
1) it’s relatively ‘clean’ which is to say that it looks cool on TV and doesn’t have the ‘long stream of US Soldiers coming back in body bags’ problem of an invasion. Besides, what are the odds that camera crews will be allowed to operate in Iran by the regime there, or that footage out of Iran would be believed or even cared about? Remember that the only audience they worry about is the US public, and as long as there’s none of the messyness of my friends dying or getting maimed, they don’t have to keep making shit up. They think (and have ample reason to think) that the US public will easily support a bombing campaign for relatively flimsy reasons.
2) of less import to the neocons, but more import to guys like me who actually think about long term effects on US foreign policy and military capability, we don’t have a functional army with which to invade Iran anyway. The Army is too small for what we are currently doing, frankly. If they want to do Iran before we get out of Iraq, they’re going to have to grow the Army to about 1.1 million active duty from the 580k authorized today. New units won’t have proper equipment for years, even if we went on a spending spree.
Hence, bombing.
cat48
Iran is producing at the 25% rate now according to a new nuke report obtained so they are all freaking out more than usual.
It’s a higher percentage than before so brings them closer to a nuke.
arguingwithsignposts
@licensed to kill time:
From the photo, it’s not “as big as a 737,” but the *wingspan* is the same as a 737.
Huge difference between those two things.
licensed to kill time
@arguingwithsignposts:
My terminology stands corrected, thank you sir! You are right, big difference.
soonergrunt
@cat48: When they get several kilograms of 90% (weapons grade) then Israel should worry. The US–not so much.
Until then, they are only doing what any country that has Uranium ore and a medical radiologic necessity has a right to do.
A right that WE, the US declared in the 1950s as the right of EVERY nation.
liberal
@cat48:
My impression is that the IAEA has a new head, who’s made some provocative statements that are set full of qualifiers and which contain no new evidence in an effort to curry favor with the US et al.
I doubt much has really changed in the Iranian nuclear program. I’d honestly find it difficult to believe Iran isn’t pursuing a nuke, or at a minimum some civilian capabilities that could be quickly used to make a bomb if necessary. OTOH, their tech isn’t all that good, so it’s going to take them awhile to get there even if we don’t bomb them.
Svensker
@soonergrunt:
Israel, apparently, has somewhere around 200 nukes. Israel is not going to be attacked by a nuclear Iran. The Iranian leadership may be weird and annoying, but they are unlikely to desire their own deaths along with the destruction of their country.
The neocons and Likudniks are not afraid of being ATTACKED by a nuclear Iran. They are afraid that their own hegemony in the area will be challenged. MADD is a two-way street. Right now, the Israelis are the bullies on the block with the biggest rocks. If Iran can match them, rock for rock, Israel will have to stop acting the bully.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
V for Vendetta comes close.
DougJ
@Michael D.:
I am honestly curious how he would respond to a war with Iran. I think a lot of others are too. What is wrong with that?
liberal
@celticdragonchick:
No drooling here. Fact is, though, that you don’t get do-overs. Being wrong about the war far outweighs whatever he said since, because he was wrong when it counted—that is, when we had a chance to stop the invasion. Talk after the invasion began is a lot cheaper.
Though IMHO his throwaway comment about treason is not nearly as odious at the whole Bell Curve thing. He’ll rot in hell, surely, for that one.
liberal
@Svensker:
This.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@licensed to kill time: Thanks for the link, that’s actually smaller than Global Hawk but that’s not really important. The important thing is wingspan, or even size for that matter, does not equal combat capability. There is currently no remotely piloted aircraft capable of surviving in contested airspace, which Iran most certainly would be. Now, the Israelis are tactically talented and could possibly shut down the Iranian integrated air defenses like they did with Syria, but the likelihood of a fleet of 737-sized remotely piloted aircraft successfully prosecuting a strike on Iranian nuclear sites is, with current technology, highly unlikely.
Nellcote
@MNPundit:
?
Well since you put it like that, maybe not. But the reviews from Tapper, Todd and the other theater critics would be hilarious.
adamchaz
Iraq had a population of 30 million
Israel has a population of 7 million
Iran has a population of 75 million people.
Despite what Israel might think you can’t bomb 75 million people into submission. You would need boots on the ground and Israel doesn’t have the military to do it. I think they are getting a little cocky beating up on Palestinians.
soonergrunt
@Svensker: Oh, I didn’t think that Iran is a nuclear threat to Israel. Honestly, the Iranian regime’s days are numbered. If we want to watch totalitarianism die in Iran, we need only sit back and watch. If we interfere at all, it will only prop up the mullahs.
I was responding to Cat48’s alarmist post.
celticdragonchick
@arguingwithsignposts:
To each their own. I agree with Sully far more than I disagree, and I enjoy his writing by and large. I have said and written things that I regret (in this very forum), and I think it unrealistic, not to mention uncharitable, to hold people to standards that we would likely fail at ourselves. If you would rather denigrate and insult erstwhile allies, you have no room to laugh at groups like The Club For Growth who seek ever more effective ways to shrink the GOP.
Just a thought.
Tsulagi
@soonergrunt:
Yeah, they miss them some Shock and Awe video feed set against a night sky. Pretty. Starbursts.
It’s what comes after those ADD warriors have a problem with.
@arguingwithsignposts: Yeah, its wingspan is a bit under that of the first 737 derivatives and it’s less than half the length. Weight is about a tenth that of a 737. Here are more photos. It’s not a new game changing UAV. They showed it at the Paris Air Show a few years ago. Kinda doubt they’d sell it to Iran, though.
soonergrunt
@adamchaz: You can’t bomb 75 million people into submission. Even if you used your 200 nukes. But you can cause societal collapse. All the neighbors would move in and carve the place up, leaving the nuclear target sites untouched in a wasteland with no governmental power. Libertarian heaven, it would be.
celticdragonchick
@adamchaz:
Actually you can, but you would need to resort to scorched earth atrocities that would make Bomber Harris wince.
Napoloen
@adamchaz:
Why in Gods name would Isreal ever need to put boots on the ground in Iran? I do not have a globe in front of me but Iran must be at least 2 counties away from Isreal, so they have no reason to fear of a Iranian gound invasion, and in a conventional air campaign Isreal would clean Iran’s clock. All that leaves is a nuclear threat which Isreal could easily counter by pointing out to Iran that it could cut Iran’s population from 75m to the 50-60 range in a couple of hours with millions of more deaths to follow from radiation and starvation.
Why would they need to put any boots on the ground?
Brachiator
@soonergrunt:
The Israelis are never going to passively wait until Iran obtains a critical mass of weapons grade nuclear material. And one worry of Washington is that a Middle East war would inevitably pull us in as a participant.
No one knows whether Iran is simply acting out of a medical radiologic necessity. I don’t know that any president, and certainly not a Democrat, could simply give Iran the benefit of the doubt. The GOP would milk this for all it’s worth, no matter how reasonable a less bellicose policy might be.
Ironically, as the Wiki notes, “the nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program.”
Times change.
celticdragonchick
@soonergrunt:
Forty deliverable nuclear weapons is considered the MAD threshold, since it is considered impossible for any modern nation state to function or even exist with 40 major population centers removed. (The TV series Jericho which portrayed the breakup of America into three nation states was premised on 18 nuclear detonations)
200 nuclear weapons being detonated in Iran would be a catastrophe not seen in human history since the phreatic volcanic explosion of the Greek isle of Thera. Probably 70% plus (at a guess) of the population would be dead or dying from radiation and blast injuries. Movement within the country would be impossible for months because of radiation. Starvation and disease would decimate virtually everybody else within three months, and there is nothing the world could do about it. We would not be able to get to them because of radiation NO GO zones, and prevailing winds would carry contamination into Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and much of south central Asia.
The people would not bombed into submission. They would be bombed into non-existence.
Michael D.
@DougJ: Then ask him. I’ve emailed Sully several times and have usually received responses. Insinuating that he’d tear to shreds who opposed bombing Iran is not helpful.
arguingwithsignposts
@celticdragonchick:
I don’t consider Sully an erstwhile ally at all. I consider him horribly inconsistent.
He deserves all the mocking in the world for his “conservative” principles. So he does well with torture. BFD. So does Shep Smith. Until he comes over to the dark side and stops linking approvingly to folks like Megan McArgglebargle, he can DIAF, too.
I have all the room in the world to laugh at the Club for Growth, not the least of which being their name, which sounds like a commercial for a hair product, or enhancement product.
ETA: we have all written things we regret. But to continue defending an ideology that betrays you every. step. of. the. way. is beyond my threshold. Believe me, I’ve been there.
Neutron Flux
@soonergrunt: Perhaps Kevin Bong Phillips will enlighten us as to whether this huge drone is reality.
adamchaz
@Napoloen:
I don’t believe an conventional air campaign would “clean Iran’s clock.” I believe that Iran has been preparing for a moment for a while.
I have no reason to believe that the Iranians desire for self-preservation is any stronger or weaker than the Israels or the U.S. So i imagine like any rational actor facing a threat such as Israel they have a defense against the majority of Israels capabilities with weapons they bought from Russia and China.
Russia and China would also have an incentive to help Iran weakened Israel and the US. I would think that America needs to learn from North Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq that superior weapons dosen’t always win.
Neutron Flux
Sheez. Kevin Phillips Bong is IN the house. Note to self: Read the whole thread.
soonergrunt
@celticdragonchick: I don’t think it would take three to five nukes to cause complete societal collapse in Iran.
Tehran, Qom, Esfahan, and Shiraz. Hit that axis, and all cross country trade and communication stops and the strong central government is destroyed. Kerman and Yazd just to be sure.
This is well within the realm of Israeli capability.
Hell, you hit Tehran with one nuke and the government will collapse and the economy along with it.
Napoleon
@adamchaz:
Maybe I should have been more precise in my language, they would have cleaned Iran’s Air Forces clock. It would take Israel 2 or 3 days max to establish absolute air superiority, just like we did in Iraq, which of course isn’t the same as controling the the situation on the ground, or perhaps even in the Straights of Hormuz (sp?). (I personally think airpower is way overrated).
celticdragonchick
@Napoloen:
We make several similar points, although I would caution you on the supposed vulnerability of the Iranian Air Force. The Israeli AF is well equipped, superbly trained and well led, but they would be fighting far from friendly territory and with a very limited fuel budget since they would not have tanker support. Iran has an aging, although still capable AF and is building the new Saeque multi role fighter to supplant the older Chinese F-6/MiG 19s and the newer Mig-29 Fulcrums and Mirage F.1’s. Maintenance and training may well be issues here, since Iran does not have reliable parts suppliers for many of her aircraft (which explains the need for a home grown weapons industry!), but they would be fighting from home bases and have SAM, ground based radar intercept guidance and tanker support. Israel would have to use cruise missile attacks (the HAVE NAP POPEYE comes to mind) on airfields, radars and SAM sites, and that would certainly give away any element of surprise.
It would be a tall order for a small AF like Israel’s, and I am not sure they could pull it off.
sparky
now does anyone see why i said what Lieberman announced yesterday (DADT “repeal”) is about war with Iran?
anyone?
/bangs head on keyboard
soonergrunt
@Neutron Flux: Anything is possible. Remote control planes can be done. The US government remote-controlled a 707 once just to crash it into something and see what would happen. We remote control old F-4 phantom jets for use as high fidelity targets for the Air Force and Navy to practice on all the time.
So, yeah. You could remote control or drone control a large aircraft relatively easily. The question is, why would you want to do so? Anything that big as a military asset is almost certainly dropping bombs on something and you probably want a human in the loop somewhere.
I suppose you could drone a tanker plane if you worked at it. Israel doesn’t have the tanker planes to ‘drone up’ as it were.
I guess you could fill an old 747 with explosives to its max payload and kamikaze it into something, but that’s really expensive.
celticdragonchick
@soonergrunt:
Quite true.
DougJ
@Michael D.:
You’ve come increasingly close to being an official troll here recently.
celticdragonchick
@DougJ:
Disagreement does not equal trolldom.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@soonergrunt: The USAF remotely piloted aircraft future systems roadmap calls for a medium sized tactical airframe capable of interdiction/CAS and other air-to-ground type missions, and a large airframe designed for tanker/cargo/logistics missions. Neither aircraft exists yet except on the drawing board but they most certainly will at some point.
As of right now the control architecture is the limiting factor in situations where rapid maneuvering is required. If you control via line-of-sight you can have instant response, but if you control via satellite like we control Pred/Reaper then there is appreciable latency in your inputs. This limits missions to benign maneuvering and uncontested airspace.
celticdragonchick
Off to chem lab.
meh
BBL.
Neutron Flux
@soonergrunt: I was wondering if the article was correct.
It seems to me that human in the loop thing is an asked and answered question.
Brachiator
@celticdragonchick:
MAD is Mutually Assured Destruction. Any conflict between the US and Iran would be one-sided.
Aside from the issue of bombing in general, destabilizing another oil producer would be madness. And a major nuclear strike against Iran would be madness squared.
Possibly not. But a nuclear strike against Iran might guarantee that other Muslim nations would abandon any moderation in favor of attacks against the US and the West.
soonergrunt
@Kevin Phillips Bong: That’s what I’m saying. Yeah, a Predator costs some cash, but by the time you’re done remote control/drone control modifying your 747, you’ve spent a bucket load of dough that would be more profitably spent on GPS-guided bombs to be dropped from your F-16s and F-15s.
With your 747 kamikaze bomb, you’ve made a system that can’t respond to external threat in a timely manner, thus virtually ensuring it will be shot down. It’s also a one-shot deal.
The tanker I can see as a large UAS because those things never go into enemy territory. F-15 sized UCAS? sure, why not. That will be doable soon enough. But I don’t think you’ll ever see a UCAS strategic bomber, mainly because the Air Force owns the strategic bombardment mission and they are all about the flight suit and how sexy it looks driving down the main drag in the convertable. I work for them in my civilian job. They’ll fight tooth and nail to keep that from happening in appreciable numbers. The Navy will lead on this one because if you can build an aircraft that doesn’t need a pilot, you can do it cheaper and easier, and smaller for the exact same (or better) capability. You can put more of them in the same space and carrier hanger decks aren’t getting bigger.
Barry
Rathskeller:
“When they are going to stop publishing that goddamn moron?”
When the embalming technology can’t keep up with the decay. There is no retirement age for pundits, and even death wouldn’t stop them, since half of them probably have unpaid interns cranking out the sh*t.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@soonergrunt: Actually the USAF command structure is more or less run by single seat fighter types, that’s why it was so odd when a trash hauler/special operations guy (Schwartz) was selected to be Chief of Staff. As far as missions go, strat strike is perfect for a remotely piloted vehicle. You have much more airframe design flexibility when you take the shaved monkey out of the jet, the weapons it delivers are already quite precise so you don’t need to maneuver the plane to an accurate firing solution, and you avoid the possibility of the enemy capturing your aircrew if they bag the jet. You’re going to get much more resistance when the AF tries to completely do away with F-15/F-16/F-22/F35 in favor of a UCAV than you will when they remote pilot a B-1/B-52 replacement.
And yes, an unmanned/robotic 747 kamikaze bomb is about the most tactically useless thing I can imagine. Unable to penetrate hardened sites, easy to shoot down from the ground or via fighter aircraft, shows up like a giant turd on air defense radar. Pointless.
liberty60
@Mike Kay:
The only good thing I ever heard about a new military draft, is the thought of the Bush twins and the pampered scions of the Villagers all pushed to the tip of the spear somewhere in Godforsakenstan.
soonergrunt
@Kevin Phillips Bong: I see where you’re coming from, but I’m surrounded by field-grade officers who look at ANY remotely piloted/autonomous aircraft as a threat to the whole thing.
The artificial line I see being drawn is on the whole “you want a living, thinking soul (said with reverence) with his finger on the pickle!” To them an unmanned bomber is just a short step away from the unmanned fighter plane.
They’ll sacrifice the tanker drivers if they have to but the guys I know will look you dead in the eye and tell you how important it is that qualified jocks should be driving the aircraft and (if worse comes to worst) the UAVs.
The Air Force’s Predators crash more often than the Army’s (called the Reaper, I think) because the AF pilots insist on flying the damn thing all the way to the ground and they prang it on the landing. The Army uses NCOs to watch the screen and push the little red button when they get permission and they have the plane fly itself. And they freak the fuck out when you call it a plane. It’s fun to watch.
Not that I would ever needle my massively egotistical coworkers about their impending obsolescence. Cause that would be wrong.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@soonergrunt: Well, there already is a qualified pilot driving all the AF UAVs, with the minor exception of the “beta program” guys who fly Predator ISR missions only. The Army uses enlisted troopers to fly their Sky Warriors (which is just a heavy fuel version of our Pred) and I’ll give you one guess which UAV is responsible for most of the near-mid-airs in Afghanistan. It’s only a matter of time until an off-altitude UAV not talking to anyone takes out a C-130 loaded with dudes and they rethink the required qualification of UAV pilots. As one of the reverent “living (yes) thinking (mostly) souls” that was taken out of a fighter cockpit to fly Reapers, I totally understand the culture change that’s going to have to take place over the next few decades. I’ll be long retired, but it’ll be fascinating to watch.
soonergrunt
@Kevin Phillips Bong:
Oh, to be sure, deconfliction is a huge headache, and taking guys from infantry units and military police billets and making them UAV operators isn’t helping. I’m not sure that the answer to that is to spend the money it takes to qualify an F-16 pilot, for example, and put them into a UAV workstation. The answer (in my opinion that is informed solely by working in this particular office and could be wrong) is better air traffic management and control.
And for whatever it’s worth, I want pilots in aircraft. We wouldn’t be having this back and forth here but for a flight of A-10s showing up at the right time on one day, and F-16s on another. We even had CAS from a B-1 once. I’m a pretty big fan of the USAF. I just think they need some institutional adjusting from time to time, like all large organizations.
soonergrunt
@soonergrunt: and a tip of the boonie cap to you for that, Kevin. Especially if you’re a driver for one of those platforms.
Kevin Phillips Bong
@soonergrunt: As a former A-10 guy, glad we could be of service. The current paradigm isn’t to train an F-16 guy and toss him in the GCS, we’re taking qualified pilots from all airframes and training them to fly the UAVs. The training is quick and pretty cheap.
Initially we wanted primarily fighter guys for the Reaper as we were doing lots of CAS, but now that it’s a mostly COIN conflict we’re taking bodies from everywhere. One of our sharpest guys is an F-15E WSO. The steady-state answer is going to be using guys trained in a major airframe either on loan to the UAV community or doing an intermediate tour between primary tours. It’s much less about knowing the inherent problems and considerations of weapons delivery than it is about knowing where to put your airplane and when, who to talk to, what to expect out of various platforms you may encounter out there.
You’ll have to trust me when I tell you that the CAS you could have received from an MQ-9 would have been as good as the fighters, and we could have stayed on station for most of the day (or night) to watch your back after dropping some hate.
And if there ever was an institution in need of adjusting, it’s the AF. Norty thinks he can do it by making us wear blues every Monday. As usual, the beatings will continue until morale improves.
Michael D.
@DougJ:
How so? Because I disagree with something you said? Or because I noted that you said something that had no relevance but that was most likely inserted into it to spice up an otherwise throw-away post?
soonergrunt
I remember thinking “this is it. They’ve got us. I’m going to die in the next few minutes.” I remember knowing it as clearly as I’ve ever known anything. It was very calming.
And then the A-10s showed up and the JTAC guy got them on their first run. The bad guys started breaking contact, but it was too late for most of them to get away.
The sunset that evening was the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen in my life. Thank you, and all the warthog drivers for that.
chopper
@Michael D.:
well, you would know about throw-away posts now, wouldn’t you?
de stijl
He didn’t dream it up. He stole it from The New Guy.
Idiot and plagiarist.
What makes it more pathetic is that he plagiarized from one of the worst movies of the aughts.
MNPundit
@soonergrunt: Which brings up the question of why he is on the blogroll under “Blogs We Both Read” instead of the mockery roll?
I guess it’s the blog’s rightwing roots showing up from time to time.
J. A. Baker
I don’t know about that, but you can bet your bottom dollar that Glenn “Instahick” Reynolds will declare that anyone opposed to nuking Tehran is “objectively on Ahmadinejad’s side.”
‘Cause that’s how he rolls.
Sm*t Cl*de
“an unknown madman who runs around kidnapping fatuous columnists and murdering them in grisly fashion.”
Complicity comes close.
Remember November
I think we need to organize for the Coffee Break Party…”We’re brewing up trouble, with an extra shot.extra bitter.”
Who’s with me?
cuz we’re all human beans….
celticdragonchick
@Brachiator:
I was assuming a conflict between Israel and Iran. The Iranian Shahab missile series variants do not have the range to hit the CONUS.
Also, I do not think that anybody seriously expects that Israel would expend the entirety of her nuclear arsenal against Iran in the event of a nuclear exchange. Twenty warheads would be more than enough, even allowing for redundancy against high value targets. I engaged in (unlikely) speculation since the subject had been brought up.
celticdragonchick
@J. A. Baker:
True, dat…
I love glibitarianism.
Brachiator
@celticdragonchick:
Israel currently has far more nuclear capability than Iran. MAD still does not apply. I was reading an article in History Today about the 1973 Yom Kippur War. On October 8, Israel was rocked by Arab success and according to the article, “[Prime Minister] Meir reportedly ordered 13 tactical nuclear weapons readied as a last resort if the tide could not be turned.”
This was far from theoretical.
I’m not sure if the mini nuclear powers (Israel, South Africa, India, Pakistan) think about MAD. And sometimes Americans forget that these nations have nukes and differing views of their national interests than the US, Russia, China and other big nuke countries.