No one could have predicted that Mort Zuckerman wouldn’t run for Senate:
The field in the battle for a New York Senate seat became a little clearer Tuesday when Mortimer B. Zuckerman announced he would not join the race.
Honestly, I don’t get the “Gillibrand is vulnerable” stuff. Never have. And I say that as someone who got the “Paterson is vulnerable” stuff long before the shit hit the fan.
hal
It’s the same in California with Boxer. Tom Campbell and Carly Fiorina are like totally going to challenge Boxer. Right…
Tenzil Kem
For all the talk of Gillibrand being vulnerable, there’s no one actually running against her. And, bizarrely, no one at all in the media seems interested in acknowledging that fact when they talk about this race.
jl
Is Kaus vulnerable? That’s what I want to know.
Mike Kay
I’m shocked! I’m Shocked!
I can’t understand why a real estate bubble baron like zuckerman wouldn’t do well in this environment.
aimai
The pro zuckerman politico article I read cited Dan Gerstein as a prominent democratic strategist who was gung ho for zuckerman–then I knew it was doomed because Gerstein was Lieberman’s pet poodle and anyone with less of a grasp of democratic or republican politics than Gerstein can not be imagined.
aimai
Mike Kay
@jl:
he’s just going through his mid-life crisis.
he chickened out of vietnam so now he wants to assuage his trembles by running as a suicide-bomber-candidate.
mcc
Just as well. He lost a lot of goodwill after “An American Carol”.
mcc
In other news watching chron.com, they are still very early in votecounting but it basically looks like Perry will win the Texas primary by a huge margin, and the 9/11 truther lady is actually going to make a respectable showing against KBH.
This is excellent news for Bill White.
Mike Kay
if dan senior runs, doesn’t that mean his wife (campbell brown) has to step down from cnn?
Amy
When I read the following (especially the third paragraph) in Politico this morning, I thought this guy is just not going to run.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/33657_Page3.html#ixzz0h4mkc09o
Yes, you read that right — the baby’s provenance”
Amy
Not sure why the block quote didn’t work on the second and third paragraphs above…
DougJ
@Amy:
Yeah, I had the same reaction.
Annie
Great news for Dan Senor. He can fund his own campaign from the missing billions from the CPA when he was the chief spokesperson….Funny, he never “spoke” about that….
Dennis G.
But what will happen when Mr. Campell Brown decides not to run as well? Perhaps they can recruit Alan Keyes to run.
kommrade reproductive vigor
Thou shalt not question the story arc.
Nellcote
@jl:
Well, if the goats go on Larry King…
Mike Kay
Helicopter Harold said he dropped out because he didn’t want to face a well funded republican, well now that Zuckerman has dropped out, Harold should jump back in. After all, it won’t be the first or last time Harold flip flops.
BB
At some point, it just Became Known that
a) Gillibrand is omg so vulnerable
b) Gillibrand is a “moderate” or “conservative” Democrat.
Lovely! Throw in some hatred of Upstate, mix in the NY media’s boredom and you’ve got yourself a press narrative.
I don’t want to ruin the NY Post’s fun, so I’ll meekly point out that Gillibrand has a boatload of cash, strong and growing poll numbers and a voting record to the left of Feingold.
Let’s just ride this nonsense narrative for another rotation on the Merry-Go-Round. I can’t wait to see who the Manhattanites trot out next.
Nellcote
DougJ, you should build an altar to Maddow. She called out Hatch for lying in that WaPo op-ed AND called out the WaPo for publishing it without factchecking. She actually used the word lie about 15 times. It’s on about 20+min. into the hour.
demo woman
@Amy: The party of Family Values. Does he pose in the nude..nah never mind, don’t even want to picture that.
someguy
How can Dan Senor possibly become a Republican senator? As far as I know, he’s not a closeted gay guy, on Abramoff’s payroll, or personally responsible for looting a health care company. He just doesn’t fit as a Republican. Unless he is planning on running on one of New York’s minor conservative party tickets, like the Conservative Free People’s Front, or perhaps the People’s Free Conservative Front. Or maybe he’s with Joe Bruno’s Show Me The Money Party. I lose track, given that complicated NY ballot.*
*The cool thing about NY politics is you don’t have to wait for the Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot. For the most part, they come pre-shot.
DougJ
@Nellcote:
I’ll check it out.
Jay C
@BB:
Well, from the NY Media’s standpoint, it IS true that Sen. Gillibrand IS “vulnerable”: the only problem with the narrative is that she is isn’t particularly vulnerable to any of the candidates who are actually running – which, seemingly, tends to baffle a lot of commentators, for some reason….
And pace, BB; I don’t think the City Media’s attitude problem with Kirsten Gillibrand being an Upstater is so much a matter of “hatred” as one of cultural snobbery: I remember a lot of media and blogospheric blather last year trying to paint Gillibrand as a sort of East Coast Sarah Palin, mainly from being perceived as being a Congressperson from the wilderness – i.e., north of The Bronx. Not so much of that now.
Anyway, I’m quite pleased with having Kirsten Gillibrand as my Senator – and it looks like she’ll be around for a while: the State Democrats will probably dutifully line up behind her; and the Republican side looks fair to devolve into the usual buffoon circus – again.
JenJen
@Amy:
@Mike Kay: Was thinking the same. Doesn’t this mean Carpetbaggin’ Harold just lost another excuse?
Ya know, rich people are weird.
SiubhanDuinne
Kinda O/T but how exactly do you pronounce “Senor”? I keep wanting to put a tilde over the N and pronounce it “sen-YORE” but I somehow doubt that’s how he says it. SEE-nore? SEH-n’r? I’m not sure I’ve ever actually heard anyone say his name out loud. (Another good reason, I guess, to keep calling him “Mr. Campbell Brown.”)
Brian J
@hal:
Isn’t it telling that HP’s PAC gave to Boxer instead of Fiorina? Whether you interpret this as a sign that Boxer is a lot stronger than people are letting on or that the HP execs know what a dud Fiorina is, it’s amusing, to say the least.
Who knows if Boxer really is vulnerable? My guess is, she’s no worse off than any other Democrat who is running this year. If she ends up going down, it’s going to be a bloodbath all over, so I am not particularly worried.
As for Gillibrand, she wasn’t elected on her own statewide, and it’s supposed to be a bad year for Democrats, so it’s not surprising that people see an opening. I don’t know if Zuckerman would have been even remotely threatening to Gillibrand, but I’m glad he’s not running, because he would spent a lot of money finding out. Now that he’s not, we can focus on keeping Delaware and New Hampshire.
Mike Kay
@JenJen:
Harold has always been a loser.
He ran for senate in TN — lost
He ran for senate in NY — threw in the towel
He ran agaisnt pelosi for caucus leader — lost
He took the bar exam — flunked
Clinton let him give the keynote address at the convention — he tanked.
He became vice chairman of Merrill Lynch — they collapsed
The only thing he’s done was inherit his daddy’s congressional seat. And if his name was Robert Ford, instead of harold ford sr. namesake, he probably would have fucked that up as well.
Brian J
@mcc:
How is it excellent news for Bill White?
cat48
Yes!! Another candidate backed by Morning Ho decides not to run…..they are all quitters over there…..Now if we could get Joe & Mika to leave.
Yutsano
@Jay C:
That sounds eerily like the Patty Murray situation up here, where she’s beating the tar out of everyone except for the two time loser who’s not running Dino Rossi. I’d swear that Rossi is like our state’s version of Mittens except, well, he hasn’t actually WON anything. Same type of smarmy family values peacock though.
Nellcote
@Mike Kay:
Wow, did not know that. He’s delusional isn’t he.
Brian J
@Yutsano:
Is there any chance he’d run?
Yutsano
@Brian J: He’s said at least twice no, plus it has to smart to lose twice to one of the most unpopular Democrats in the state before (ran for governor twice, first time was really close second time lost by four points) and Murray is nowhere near that vulnerable in the Seattle area to lose. I think he sits it out because if he were going to make any kind of move it would have to be soon, I forget exactly when the jungle primary is this year.
Mark S.
@Amy:
That’s too funny. So if John started posting pictures of a baby sitting on the couch in between Tunch and Lily, it would be impolite to ask him where the hell the baby came from?
Brian J
@Yutsano:
Maybe he senses something a lot of people, especially those in the media, don’t: that while it’s almost certainly not going to be a great year for the Democrats, it’s by no means certain it will be a horrendous year. If it were guaranteed to be like 2006 and 2008 were for the Democrats, why would, for instance, so many House Republicans be retiring?
Yutsano
@Brian J: The other fact is Murray isn’t anywhere near as vulnerable as Gregoire was and he still couldn’t beat her. The biggest detail of his campaign I remember was that he ran as the anti-Gregoire but gave almost no reasons why people should vote FOR him. This was especially true of his last campaign. Personally I think he doesn’t have the social conservative vote this time around and you don’t win as a Rep in WA without that. So that could be a huge factor in his decision making.
someguy
Is Zuckerman some kind of figure from an Edward Gorey book?
Brian J
@Yutsano:
That’s true.
Svensker
@someguy:
Yes, except the Gorey stuff isn’t as creepy.
mcc
@Brian J: Because near as I can gather KBH was a serious candidate and Perry is not. Near as I can gather Perry is a mess buoyed only by a late-hour decision to start pandering hard to the state’s extremist elements. I don’t think those kinds of tactics will hold up long term or against a candidate who’s allowed to hit back. Maybe Perry will win anyway, but White’s in an unusually good position right now for a Democrat in Texas I think.
Given, the best news for would have been if Perry had gotten 49.8% and had a bloody runoff battle with KBH for another month, but why pine for what we didn’t have.
mai naem
I don’t know how to do the block quote thing but I find this response from Mort’s spokesman about the baybee mama:
“Those are obnoxious questions,” Frydman said in an e-mail. “So I’m not gonna ask him to answer them.”
Also too, what’s with the Jewish Canadian neocons? Did they get hit in the head with curling stones? Or maybe the Molson beer? Or the Vancouver pot?
Mark
@mai naem
As a jewish-canadian, no fucking clue. David Frum’s mother was very liberal. He’s probably angry he got beat up at BBYO camp.
bayville
Umm, gee, I think some of the “smart” progressives in the liberalsphere have been saying Gillibrand is vulnerable since Paterson named her to replace Clinton.
Remember, the “smart”, grown-up progressives lobbying for Ms. Kennedy to get the nod. And then the “smart”, grown-ups proceeded to throw a month-long hissy fit after Gillibrand was appointed.
Just to refresh your memory, it was the same group that applauded the appointment of Geithner as SecTreasury. Boy, those “smart” progressives sure know what they are talking about.
mcc
Curse you, smart people!!
demimondian
@Yutsano: Dino-sore “loser” Rossi? I think that Murray is more vulnerable than the received wisdom states, but I don’t see Rossi taking the shot.
The Master Builders won’t be able to raise money for him illegally this time out. The Seattle papers have lost still more readership, and so can’t sell him as heavily. And…he lost to Chris Gregoire. Twice. The second time by *four* *freaking* *points*.
Rossi would be toast.
Tenzil Kem
The first time I ever heard of KBH, it was as a potential challenger to Ann Richards in 1994. Then Bill Clinton made LLoyd Bentsen Treasury Secretary and Richards appointed an incredibly weak candidate as an interim Senator and KBH went over the low-hanging fruit. I’ve always wondered if we could have avoided the Dubya years if Clinton had just picked another damn person for Treasury and KBH had run for governor in 1994 instead of senator in 1993.
asiangrrlMN
@Svensker: Love me some Edward Gorey.
@Amy: Provenance? A baby isn’t a painting or a piece of antique furniture! Sheesh.
@JenJen: No fucking shit. Provenance for a baby?
demimondian
@asiangrrlMN: I know. That’s such a weird word. Provenance refers to the chain of custody of evidence or other valuable material. Did he buy the baby from a reputable dealer or something?
AB
I don’t get it. I find Gillibrand actually quite dedicated. She’s kept her eye on the target so far and said or done nothing 1 standard deviation over average on the objectionable side.
… not that I actually measured this.
Edit: This is excellent news for John McCain.
OriGuy
In archeology, provenance refers more to how an object was found. If there is a record of where it was found, what depth, etc., the provenance is known. If someone shows up at a museum (or Manhattan apartment) with it, the provenance is unknown.
There’s a sitcom in this, I think.
Yutsano
@OriGuy: I think they did one close to this scenario:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punky_Brewster
marrus
I think the mere thought of seeing Harold Ford as the Dem nominee increased Gillibrand’s positives enormously.
I love her record too. She gets my (Queens) vote.
It’s also a nice day to be in Anthony Weiner’s district.
+4
Yutsano
@demimondian: Oh yeah, forgot the only registered challenger so far is ex-football player Clint Didier. All I know about him is he’s some wheat farmer in Asotin county and wasn’t a Seachicken so his name recognition is close to nil. Should be interesting, especially since Patty hasn’t done anything really stupid.
SRW1
Just testing whether there’s any fellow polar bear on this blog. Please ignore if obscure:
Is ‘north of Manhattan’ the same as ‘north of Ring III’?
Linda Featheringill
To SRW1:
It is not cold enough for you, you have to go out and get wet, too?
What’s the matter with you, boy? Does your mama know?
[Of course, if Polar Bear has a different meaning, please forgive.]
SRW1
@Linda Featheringill:
Sorry, no offense intended [and none taken]. We must be talking about different meanings of ‘polar bear’, and you’re obviously not one of the ones I meant.
Linda Featheringill
To SRW1:
Oops!
catclub
Brian Asked:
“Maybe he senses something a lot of people, especially those in the media, don’t: that while it’s almost certainly not going to be a great year for the Democrats, it’s by no means certain it will be a horrendous year. If it were guaranteed to be like 2006 and 2008 were for the Democrats, why would, for instance, so many House Republicans be retiring?”
I hate to credit Republicans with strategic vision, but it actually makes better sense __For YOUR Party__ to retire
when the party is going to do well, because the open seat will
be more likely to stay with your party.
(I think I read this on Yglesias – shoot me for stealing.)
If the Republican are actually this smart, I’m worried.
The problem is that politicians are mostly self-serving
assholes, so doing this looks crazy to the individual pol.
Ron
I think the whole Gillibrand is vulnerable theme comes based on the fact that in most polls she has low favorability numbers, but one has to keep in mind, in most of those there are often a big group that says “Don’t know”. The only other factor is that she was appointed by Paterson and he is so unpopular in NY that he’s managed to make most of us wish Spitzer could come back. I honestly do not get the progressive’s gnashing of teeth over her. She has been about as progressive a senator as one could really hope for since she became a senator. It’s true that she either is barely ahead of or behind big name republicans in most polls, but a) this is mostly based on name recognition at this point and b)None of the big name republicans actually seem to be interested in running. They must know something the “Gillibrand is vulnerable” people don’t.