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You are here: Home / Politics / Politicans / Black Jimmy Carter / Brownstein nails it… (update)

Brownstein nails it… (update)

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Across the so called progressive blog-o-sphere the hand-wringing and worrying about President Obama has been repeated so often that it is like listening to a toddler tell the same joke over and over for weeks. The cuteness factor wears off in a hurry and soon you just pray that a new diversion will get the little tyke onto some other shiny object.

The trouble where I sit is that most folks think about what Obama should be doing while wearing very narrow blinders. I think much of the HCR debate fits that frame.

Over at the National Journal, Ron Brownstein looks at the field of play without the blinders of conventional wisdom and I think he nails it in this graph:

The fight has opened a second window into Obama. The key here is his 2008 campaign assertion that “Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America” more than Richard Nixon or Bill Clinton did. The health care struggle suggests that Obama views changing that trajectory as the ultimate measure of a presidency’s success. His aim is to establish a long-term political direction — one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly shared growth. Everything else — the legislative tactics, even most individual policies — is negotiable. He wants to chart the course for the supertanker, not to steer it around each wave or decide which crates are loaded into its hull.

The entire piece is worth a read.

I think the Obama Era after HCR is going to get pretty interesting.

Cheers

dengre

ps: But first, HCR must pass… So please plan on setting some time aside to make a few calls on Saturday–we need to keep the pressure on full boil.

Update: Moses2317 give us a great calling list for the morning.

Reader Interactions

140Comments

  1. 1.

    JGabriel

    Dengre:

    I think the Obama Era after HCR is going to get pretty interesting.

    I think so too. I hope so anyway, and not interesting in the Chinese curse sense but interesting in the “our GOP enemies are crushed and decimating themselves with infighting and circular fire” sense.

    .

  3. 3.

    mai naem

    I hope Brownstein’s right but I don’t see the Repubs letting up and so I don’t see how the bipartisanship kumbaya crap is going to work. Also too, please please, if Obama does turn out to be the Reagan of the Dem. party, please lets not have Dem versions of Grover Norquist going around wanting Obama’s pic on the dollar bill and on airports etc. etc.

  4. 4.

    mr. whipple

    I think so too. I hope so anyway, and not “interesting” in the Chinese curse sense but “interesting” in the “our GOP enemies are crushed and decimating themselves with infighting and circular fire” sense.

    First we have to pass it, though. I’m a nervous wreck. I want to have faith, but after watching this train wreck for a year I’m just not real confident they won’t shoot themselves in the foot at crunch time.

  5. 5.

    mr. whipple

    if Obama does turn out to be the Reagan of the Dem. party, please lets not have Dem versions of Grover Norquist going around wanting Obama’s pic on the dollar bill and on airports etc. etc.

    I say put it everywhere.

  6. 6.

    Dennis G.

    @JGabriel:

    Yes, I’m waiting for a Godfather-like baptism scene where a number of scores are settled as he signs the Bill.

    I can think of quite a few folks who deserve to be politically whacked.

    Cheers

  7. 7.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @JGabriel:

    I think so too. I hope so anyway, and not interesting in the Chinese curse sense but interesting in the “our GOP enemies are crushed and decimating themselves with infighting and circular fire” sense.

    They won’t be crushed, they still own/control the media, and I think ownership (Fox, WSJ, Kaplan boardroom) is actually less of a problem than the control (Fox and the Kaplan op/ed page driving ‘news’ coverage and establishing the terms of policy debate). Just look at everything from today’s memo to the disparity between the coverage of sad and desperate Eric Massa to actually and obviosly criminal John Ensign. But I do think things are gonna change, I can feel it. Maybe a few more Dems will actually get up out of the fetal position.

    Infighting? Oh yeah. Mitt thinks his time has come, but so do about five or six other bigfeet, including the Quitta from Wassilla.

    +3

  9. 9.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    Brownstein is my go to number one pundit on politics, Ezra I go to mostly for the wonk, that has been a staple along with a couple of others. But Brownstein has not let the CW virus get him. He just stays focused and delivers what he really believes, no matter the venue. Wish we could clone the dude a hundred times over.

    His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices

    I think this is correct, but unfortunately there are 535 mitigating factors to overcome. We shall see how far he can shift the balance to the left, hopefully back from the Reagan shift to the right which was profound and leads straight to the financial meltdown, and other rightist policies that became the center.

  10. 10.

    Belafon (formerly anonevent)

    @mr. whipple: If he gets HCR passed, I say that his image must be tattooed on the inside of the eyelids of every Democrat that makes it into Congress or the White House with the text “Like he did it.”

  11. 11.

    Tenzil Kem

    @mai naem: I agree with Mr. Whipple. Make every last teabagger have to walk past something named “Obama” every single day on their way to going Galt.

  12. 12.

    gbear

    His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly shared growth.

    What a commie.

    I’ll make some phone calls tomorrow.

    They won’t be crushed, they still own/control the media

    This. It will never stop. It will only get more pathetic.

  13. 13.

    Max

    Well, I’m an O-bot, but think about where we are right now…

    This country is fucking crazy and racist (on balance).

    Yet – The first black president is about to get health care reform passed in his first 18 months in office.

    Sunday, I’m going to put on my Obama shirt and sit on my couch watching C-span and I’m going to applaud the hell out of this bill when it passes.

    Fuck off haters.

    Max +2

  14. 14.

    TR

    Brownstein is right, as he often is.

    Whatever you think of Reagan — and God knows, I don’t think much of him — it’s important to remember that when he was at this stage in his presidency, his approval ratings were in the low 40s and sinking, down to 35% at the start of 1983. Not even Republicans who revere him now were fully enamored of him back then.

  15. 15.

    Llelldorin

    @MikeJ:

    Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    These are Republicans that we’re talking about. Women are less than a tenth of their congressional delegation. You’ll have to listen pretty damned carefully.

  16. 16.

    Yutsano

    @Dennis G.: :: pedant hat on ::

    onto some other shinny object.

    It should be shiny Mr. Dengre. It’s not even a pet peeve of mine, but it does sort of change your meaning.

    Otherwise, spot on as usual good sir.

  19. 19.

    gbear

    @Max:

    Sunday I’ll wear my ‘Bears For Obama’ baseball cap.

    I really do have a cap that says that. It’s embroidered on. I bought it at Mpls. Pride in June 08.

  20. 20.

    Quiddity

    I could do without all the drama. The passage of this bill appears to me to have been needlessly “on the edge”. For the last 9 months or so, we’ve been treated to so many false hopes, reverses of direction, lectures on what we’re supposed to accept, and failed coalitions, that I’m exhausted with the whole thing.

    I think a legitimate complaint is the slowness of the process. Stretching it out resulted in, among other things, the Scott Brown win, which made an already dicey process even more of a high wire act.

    For those of you (especially at Balloon Juice) that still are spirited supporters of HCR, congratulations. You have a fortitude I lack. When HRC started to move away from single payer, away from public option, away from the House funding mechanism, and towards the Senate version, I lost interest more and more. Part of the frustration was seeing how disconnected the politics was from the reality of many peoples’ needs regarding health care and the ability to afford it. And that as a developed nation, even with this HCR legislation, we’re nowhere near what Japan/Canada/Europe is doing. American Exceptionalism? I guess that explains it.

  23. 23.

    Nellcote

    @MikeJ:

    Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    I’d settle for them just shutting up for a couple of hours. Looking at you Bachmann, Blackburn, Foxx and LaPalin.

  24. 24.

    gbear

    @Max: Nope, it’s an ‘overweight, bearded and queer’ bear’s cap.

    I’ve got a Paul Wellstone ‘Keep Fighting For Justice’ button I could throw on too.

  26. 26.

    Nick

    ‘After HCR’? Hasn’t anyone outside of Bowers at Open Left realized this thing doesn’t have 216 votes and ain’t gonna get them? I sure hope I’m wring but I’m no Peter Pan. The votes aren’t there.

  28. 28.

    Mo's Bike Shop

    …with Geithner and Bernanke leading us into the future.

    We’ll deal with the end of Mexican oil through “creative finance.”

    Think I’ll buy a few more dynamo hubs.

  30. 30.

    Restrung

    Obama is huge. President Obama is a big f’n deal.
    He’s the not-a-dumbass president. It could work.
    F’n guy ran on this medical insurance reform thing, and he was elected. Lots of regular, average, even normal Americans voted for him. amirite. DON’T VETO tdb. C’mon, dude?

  31. 31.

    K. Grant

    Slightly OT – I logged in to one of the social networking sights today, only to find some of my relations with posts about joining a group that is against ‘soshialist healthcare’. Here is my question – one of these close relations lost employment last year (financial sector, a new job has since been secured) and thus lost health insurance. During the time of said lack of health insurance, their son was born, very premature. The great news, the son is quite healthy, with only some minor lung related issues. The state picked up the entire tab for all of the massive amounts of hospitalization and specialized care. Heck, they still get WIC and other subsidies for oxygen even though they now have insurance. But they still are screaming about the horrors of the creeping ‘soshialized medicine’.

    So, how do you point this out without being an insensitive bastard, and making all future family gatherings really uncomfortable (moreso than usual, as I am the only liberal in the entire group)?

  32. 32.

    Brick Oven Bill

    You don’t steer supertankers around waves. Perhaps you set a course to place them on your quarter-bow. But if you have a supertanker, who cares?

    This Brownstein sounds like a fucking retard.

  33. 33.

    scav

    @MikeJ:

    Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    I’d rather hear the squeeky sobbings of their menfolk. So long as we drag Beck away from the Red River and towards, say, CA or any other area of drought and sedate all the dogs so they don’t suffer so much from the piercing clamor . . .

    Sorry, I’m in a mood that could etch metal. But the desire stands.

  34. 34.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @Quiddity

    I think a legitimate complaint is the slowness of the process

    Bet Harry Truman would say the same thing, if he weren’t dead as a door nail.

  35. 35.

    JGabriel

    MikeJ:

    Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    As Llelldorin notes, I expect it’ll be difficult to hear over the shrieking of the 90% male GOP House & Senate delegations.

    However, the Keening of Sarah Palin will be something to – how would Nooners put it? oh, yes – savor.

    .

  36. 36.

    Mnemosyne

    @Quiddity:

    And that as a developed nation, even with this HCR legislation, we’re nowhere near what Japan/Canada/Europe is doing. American Exceptionalism? I guess that explains it.

    Well, let’s see. Japan has had its system since the 1980s, so that’s about 30 years. Canada’s system was set up in 1966. Germany has had universal healthcare since 1883.

    And yet somehow we were supposed to be able to bypass all of the bumps and bugs that every other country with a universal healthcare system has run into. Talk about American exceptionalism.

    Oh, and Japan’s system? Government-regulated private insurance. With insurance companies that you have to pay your money to and everything.

  37. 37.

    Toni

    Obama is about to deliver a huge victory for democrats. When people talk about big accomplishments of the Democratic party, they talk about medicare, social security or civil rights. These were all victories for an older generation, HCR would be an accomplishment for this generation.

    One of the underreported stories is how much the reconciled bill when passed by the Senate will affect young people. That bill will also overhaul the student loan program. So as a young person, Obama is giving more access to student loans, more opportunities for grants and the ability to stay on your parents health insurance plan until you’re 26. These are pretty much immediate benefits. Talk about locking up future democratic voters.

  38. 38.

    Mnemosyne

    @K. Grant:

    I wish I knew. Over Christmas, my parents were simultaneously telling me about the death panels that Obama was going to set up and about the great care that my brother’s dying friend was getting from Medicaid. They could see absolutely no connection between government-run healthcare and, well, government-run healthcare.

  39. 39.

    gbear

    Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    You’ll be able to hear Bachmann for miles. I can’t wait to see her burst a blood vessel. Her eyes will permanently freeze open.

  40. 40.

    Chuck Butcher

    Brownstein wrote a nice piece, solid thinking on O’s desires. The problematic piece is whether such a POV shift is in the cards. The right loons aren’t a question, but the proposal that minus the media deification and Party mythology that a transformational change will happen strikes me as an open question.

    O is on the back end of two unpopular wars, a non-recovery, and economic chaos in budget terms. Reagan’s myth was built in entirely different circumstances with (I’m guessing) a more willing audience. I’d like to hope it happens, arguing over Rockefeller Republican policy by Democrats with “liberals” is extremely tiring.

  42. 42.

    MikeJ

    two unpopular wars, a non-recovery, and economic chaos in budget terms. Reagan’s myth was built in entirely different circumstances with

    You weren’t alive and haven’t actually read anything about 79-84, right? Vietnam was still fresh in minds, Volcker was giving the economy the shock treatment.

  43. 43.

    Yutsano

    @Mnemosyne: Same with Holland and Switzerland. The only main difference is they cannot be for-profit enterprises. Most are insurers like AFLAC, where they get their profits from the other insurance aspects and enjoy tax benefits for offering health insurance. I forget the exact statistic but AFLAC is one of the largest health insurers in Japan. We may yet go that route or evolve something approaching the Australian system. The bill needs to get passed first though.

  45. 45.

    Warren Terra

    I like the post, and the tags, but it needs the “Black Jimmy Carter” tag too, doesn’t it?

    @cleek:
    Not 11-dimensional chess. Just a simple goal and the determination to push until it’s accomplishmed.

  46. 46.

    Moses2317

    Whether or not you live in their districts, call the following Congresspeople (who are either undecided or are progressives who are considering opposing the legislation) and ask them to vote in favor of health care reform so that we can finally begin fixing our broken health care system.

    Zack Space – Ohio (Zanesville, Dover, Chillicothe) – (202) 225-6265

    Marcy Kaptur – Ohio (Toledo) – (202) 225-4146

    Bill Foster – Illinois (Batavia, Dixon, Geneseo) – (202) 225-2976

    Kathy Dahlkemper – Pennsylvania (Erie) – (202) 225-5406

    Chris Carney – Pennsylvania (Clarks Summit, Shamokin, Williamsport) – (202) 225-3731

    Melissa Bean – Illinois (Schaumburg) – (202) 225-3711

    Steve Driehaus – Ohio (Cincinnati) – (202) 225-2216

    Jim Matheson – Utah (South Salt Lake, St. George, Price) – (202) 225-3011

    Stephen Lynch – Massachusetts (Brockton, Boston) – 202-225-8273

    Peter DeFazio – Oregon (Eugene, Roseburg, Coos Bay) – 202.225.6416

    Michael Arcuri – New York (Utica, Auburn, Cortland) – (202)225-3665

    Rick Boucher – Virginia (Abingdon, Pulaski, Big Stone Gap) – 202-225-3861

    Henry Cuellar – Texas (San Antonia, Laredo, Rio Grande City) – 202-225-1640

    John Tanner – Tennessee (Union City, Jackson, Millington) – 202-225-4714

    Glenn Nye – Virginia (Virginia Beach, Accomac) – (202) 225-4215

    Brian Baird – Washington (Vancouver, Olympia) – (202) 225-3536

    Dan Lipinski – Illinois (LaGrange, Oak Lawn, Chicago’s southwest side) – (202) 225 – 5701

    Joe Donnelly – Indiana (South Bend, LaPorte, Michigan City, Kokomo) – (202) 225-3915

    Marion Barry – Arkansas (Jonesboro, Cabot, Mountain Home) – (202) 225-4076

    Harry Teague – New Mexico (Hobbs, Las Cruces, Socorro, Los Lunas, Roswell) – (202) 225-2365

    Jerry Costello – Illinois (Carbondale, Belleville, E. St. Louis, Granite City, Chester) – (202) 225-5661

    John Barrow – Georgia (Savannah, Augusta, Vidalia, Milledgeville, Sandersville) – (202) 225-2823

    Nick Rahall – West Virginia (Beckley, Bluefield, Huntington, Logan) – (202) 225-3452

    Solomon Ortiz – Texas (Corpus Christi, Brownsville) – (202) 225-7742

  47. 47.

    Cacti

    @Quiddity:

    When HRC started to move away from single payer, away from public option, away from the House funding mechanism, and towards the Senate version, I lost interest more and more. Part of the frustration was seeing how disconnected the politics was from the reality of many peoples’ needs regarding health care and the ability to afford it.

    Quiddity ca. 1935

    When the Social Security Act started to move away from agricultural, clerical, hospital, and domestic workers, occupations populated primarily by women and people of color, and toward white male dominated sectors of the economy, I lost interest more and more. Part of the frustration was seeing how disconnected the politics was from the reality of many people’s needs regarding old-age poverty and the ability to retire.

    FDR should have vetoed it. AmmIright???

  48. 48.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @Chuck Butcher:

    Reagan’s myth was built in entirely different circumstances with (I’m guessing) a more willing audience.

    I think this is true. And I doubt that Obama can turn back the Overton Window to pre Reagan, but he can put a dent in it, provided dems keep congress. The dems versus Reagan tension is childs play compared the current insane republicans Obama would have to deal with if they get either chamber back in 2010. It’s hard enough dealing with dems running congress, who are still affected and haunted by the Reagan years and the GOP is completely Galt. Passing HCR might well prevent a big gooper win come this November, if dems sell it well enough before then.

  49. 49.

    FreeAtLast

    I hate to spoil everyone’s fun, but according to David Dayen at FDL, Pelosi is caving and giving Stupak what he wants because the votes just aren’t there without his bloc. This could be the unraveling of everything.

  50. 50.

    Chuck Butcher

    @MikeJ:
    Read anything?
    I was fucking draft bait for ‘Nam. Maybe you’d like to put RR in CiC during ‘Nam? Iraq and Afghanistan aren’t …uh… a memory. Maybe you’re not an idiot. Maybe you read about something…at some time.

  51. 51.

    cleek

    @Warren Terra:
    Just a simple goal and the determination to push until it’s accomplishmed.

    “His aim is to establish a long-term political direction…”

    simple.

    sure, it’s the goal of pretty much everyone with a political opinion. but still, simple.

  52. 52.

    Mnemosyne

    @Yutsano:
    @mr. whipple:

    It took 12 years for Korea to switch from private voluntary insurance to government-mandated coverage, and it’s considered to be a “remarkable achievement” that they did it so quickly.

    And yet the US was supposed to be able to completely and successfully overhaul their entire for-profit healthcare system with a single bill.

    It’s funny that the same people who complain about “American exceptionalism!” are usually practicing it themselves from the other direction.

  54. 54.

    jacy

    @freelancer:

    +2? Come on, will you? The alcohols aren’t going to drink themselves.

    (having broken the bottle of 1989 Beringer white zinfandel over the bow of prospective healthcare reform)

    And, yes, I am drinking from the bottle currently, because only the critters are watching, and as far as they’re concerned, they already have healthcare.

  55. 55.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @FreeAtLast: Dayen is full of shit. If Pelosi caved to Stupak and included his language in their recon. package, it would never pass the senate or House, and she might as well shut the whole thing down and go home.

  56. 56.

    gnomedad

    His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly shared growth.

    The wingers scream “soc ialsm”, but what they mean is “kill the umpire”.

  57. 57.

    FreeAtLast

    @gbear:
    Dayen has been one of the best sources of the changing whip count. I don’t know whether or not he shares JH’s ideology, but his facts have been pretty much correct. I am worried.

  59. 59.

    Chuck Butcher

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    Passing HCR might well prevent a big gooper win come this November, if dems sell it well enough before then.

    I’d feel better about this idea if some of the policies kicked in before then. I don’t know about the mid-terms, one could hope that the GOP looneytunes itself out of wins but the economy doesn’t look to be cooperating and minus that piece it’ll be tough, anyhow the GOP goes.

  60. 60.

    Cacti

    As much time they’ve spent quibbling over the details, the big picture remains as such…

    Passing national, comprehensive HC legislation AT ALL is a H-U-G-E game changer. That’s why the GOP is fighting it tooth and claw.

  61. 61.

    TR

    @Chuck Butcher:

    I’d feel better about this idea if some of the policies kicked in before then.

    Then go ahead and feel better:

    “WITHIN THE FIRST YEAR OF ENACTMENT

    *Insurance companies will be barred from dropping people from coverage when they get sick. Lifetime coverage limits will be eliminated and annual limits are to be restricted.

    *Insurers will be barred from excluding children for coverage because of pre-existing conditions.

    *Young adults will be able to stay on their parents’ health plans until the age of 26. Many health plans currently drop dependents from coverage when they turn 19 or finish college.

    *Uninsured adults with a pre-existing conditions will be able to obtain health coverage through a new program that will expire once new insurance exchanges begin operating in 2014.

    *A temporary reinsurance program is created to help companies maintain health coverage for early retirees between the ages of 55 and 64. This also expires in 2014.

    *Medicare drug beneficiaries who fall into the “doughnut hole” coverage gap will get a $250 rebate. The bill eventually closes that gap which currently begins after $2,700 is spent on drugs. Coverage starts again after $6,154 is spent.

    *A tax credit becomes available for some small businesses to help provide coverage for workers.”

  62. 62.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @FreeAtLast:

    And here is Jane

    The deal calls for Stupak to have a vote on his amendment either before or after the House votes to confirm the Senate bill on Sunday. Stupak is confident that he has the votes to pass the measure, and is happy to have the vote after the House passes the Senate bill. He believes that by using a “tie bar” approach, his amendment would be “tied” to the health care bill — which would require just 51 votes in the Senate.

    This is bullshit. Pelosi may give him a separate vote but if it is attached to the senate bill, there is no way it could get thru reconc. as it has nothing to do with the budget, and even if it could senate libs, especially the females would not pass it.

    It never ends. Man I can’t wait for this shit to be over and done with.

  63. 63.

    Yutsano

    @Chuck Butcher: This can also, fortunately, be adjusted. The four year window does give us time to make changes should they become necessary or demanded. Even with all that, the immediate effects should be sold as much as possible. There is enough good that will come from all this right away that should be trumpeted as a victory.

  64. 64.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    though if it was attached, I suppose senate dems could raise a point of order and easily strip it out of the recon. package, but then the House would have to vote again on that.

    We could call it The Daffy Duck 11 dimensional chess plan.

    Rubber Mallet time

  65. 65.

    FreeAtLast

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    Man I can’t wait for this shit to be over and done with.

    After Obama’s election, I felt like I could finally relax and stop being aggravated all the time. I even stop reading political blogs for awhile. But this feels almost as bad as the pre-election anxiety.

  67. 67.

    JGabriel

    General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    This is bullshit. Pelosi may give him a separate vote …

    It makes no damn sense. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure Pelosi has the votes without Stupak – who has made it exceedingly clear that it’s time to cut him out of negotiations generally – and whichever morons have decided to tie themselves to his whims.

    I can’t understand why anyone in the caucus would give him the time of day after his performance in the past week.

    .

  69. 69.

    Texas Dem

    This is bullshit. Pelosi may give him a separate vote but if it is attached to the senate bill, there is no way it could get thru reconc. as it has nothing to do with the budget, and even if it could senate libs, especially the females would not pass it.

    Somebody had better explain that to the pro choice caucus in the House, because it sounds like they’re threatening to derail HCR if Stupak gets his vote. You’d think they would be smart enough to see the big picture: the defeat of HCR will destroy the Dem. party and Obama’s presidency, and a shattered Dem. party is not going to be of much help to anyone, especially pro choicers. Do they really think they’re going to get a better deal from a Republican Congress? How about a Republican Congress and a Republican President, because that’s a real possibility.

  71. 71.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @FreeAtLast:

    After Obama’s election, I felt like I could finally relax and stop being aggravated all the time. I even stop reading political blogs for awhile.

    I hear ya. I even stopped cussing for a while, well cut down, but the motherfuckers wouldn’t stop screwing shit up.

  73. 73.

    Chuck Butcher

    @TR:
    The mid-terms are about 7 months away. Some voters will make their minds up well before the vote and many a month or so ahead. The window is narrow, particularly if you talk about selling something.

  74. 74.

    Violet

    @FreeAtLast:

    After Obama’s election, I felt like I could finally relax and stop being aggravated all the time. I even stop reading political blogs for awhile. But this feels almost as bad as the pre-election anxiety.

    Gah. No kidding. It’s exhausting.

    If Stupak effs this up….oh, man, I don’t even want to think about that.

  75. 75.

    JGabriel

    @gbear:

    [Bachmann’s] eyes will permanently freeze open.

    Umm, I hate to break it to you, but that has already happened.

    .

  76. 76.

    kay

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    The NYTimes has it a little different. Well, a lot different.

    Stupak is (or was) trying to use a mechanism that allows them to make minor changes after after President’s signature. No vote.

    Republicans once used it (improperly) to strip out a provision they didn’t want to admit inserting, but didn’t want to openly reject, so I guess he’s relying on that.

    He’d need the consent of both the House and the Senate. It’s intended as a mechanism to correct a minor error.

  77. 77.

    Corner Stone

    @Texas Dem:

    Somebody had better explain that to the pro choice caucus in the House, because it sounds like they’re threatening to derail HCR if Stupak gets his vote. You’d think they would be smart enough to see the big picture:

    This is too funny for words.

  78. 78.

    Corner Stone

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    And I doubt that Obama can turn back the Overton Window to pre Reagan, but he can put a dent in it, provided dems keep congress.

    What are you talking about? Obama venerates Reagan at every opportunity.

  79. 79.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @kay: I figured is was something along those lines. Stupak language would mean no bill, just won’t happen.

  80. 80.

    Texas Dem

    It makes no damn sense. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure Pelosi has the votes without Stupak – who has made it exceedingly clear that it’s time to cut him out of negotiations generally – and whichever morons have decided to tie themselves to his whims.

    If they have the votes without Stupak, then why even talk to him? The only reason for talking to the guy at this point is that they are coming up a few votes short. Probably not much, perhaps as few as a half dozen, but it appears they don’t have the magic 216.

  81. 81.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @Texas Dem: TPM reports the meeting didn’t go well for Stupak, long faces and all. Maybe it was just a courtesy gesture on Pelosi’s part and it sounds like she didn’t give him milk and cookies. Or anything else.

  82. 82.

    The Raven

    It’s about as clear as mud. But somehow, when something has to be done, the rules tend to melt away. It’s clear the House cannot pass the health care bill without Bart Stupak. That tends to concentrate the mind. ***

    Croak!

  85. 85.

    JGabriel

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck: Thanks for the TPM link.

    It’s a worry that Pelosi is still concerned about getting Stupak’s vote, or more likely the votes of his anti-choice peers. I just hope she can reach a point where she’s confident about winning this thing without Stupak’s concern trolls within the next 24 hours, and before cutting a definite deal with him.

    .

  86. 86.

    kay

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    We have a process like that to “fix” an error in a court order after the judge’s signature, if both sides agree. No one uses it for anything substantive, or the whole process would be unreliable, and there’d be all kinds of gamesmanship, and we’d all have to do elaborate process over to fix a simple error.

    Figures Republicans set the stupid fucking precedent. God knows what they were getting by Bush.

  87. 87.

    Texas Dem

    TPM reports the meeting didn’t go well for Stupak, long faces and all. Maybe it was just a courtesy gesture on Pelosi’s part and it sounds like she didn’t give him milk and cookies. Or anything else.

    I hope you’re right, but the whip counts I’m seeing appear to have the Dems just a few votes short–without Stupak. It’s very, very close. And Stupak has called a press conference for tomorrow morning.

  88. 88.

    DougL (frmrly: Conservatively Liberal)

    @FreeAtLast:

    The whip count isn’t the count that counts. I don’t care how good he is, get back to us after the vote and we’ll talk about the actual count.

    That’s the count that matters to me. Anything else is playing with worry beads.

  90. 90.

    Comrade Mary

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck: No, that was the Pro-Choice group who looked pissed.

    Several members of the Congressional Pro-Choice Caucus emerged–very unhappy–from a meeting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi late Friday evening. The meeting lasted about half an hour, and most attendees were extremely tight-lipped when they left. But the gist is this: Pelosi is still trying to figure out how to assuage pro-life Democrats, who want the health care bill to contain tighter restrictions on funding abortions, and pro-choice members do not like the options before them.

    Stupak looks exactly like a weasel I used to work with many years ago. Deja fucking vu.

  93. 93.

    Texas Dem

    But the gist is this: Pelosi is still trying to figure out how to assuage pro-life Democrats, who want the health care bill to contain tighter restrictions on funding abortions, and pro-choice members do not like the options before them.

    Yeah, I don’t like the options either. Either we (1) accept Stupak’s tighter abortion restrictions and get HCR passed, or (2) let it go down by a few votes and watch the entire party and your president die along with it. I don’t see a third option at this point, unless all of the remaining undecideds flip to yes, which is very, very unlikely. Pay Stupak his ransom or let HCR die, and destroy the party. Make your choice.

  94. 94.

    Yutsano

    @Texas Dem: There’s no guarantee Stupak votes yes even with his abortion language included. Personally I don’t trust that weaseling snake any more than I can throw him.

  95. 95.

    hamletta

    @Corner Stone:

    What are you talking about? Obama venerates Reagan at every opportunity.

    What are you talking about? He doesn’t “venerate” Reagan, he merely points out that his was a transformational presidency

    I don’t know how old you are, but I’m the same age as Obama, and he’s not makin’ shit up. It was a frightening thing, seeing your peers embrace old-fartness before their time.

    I thank the Lord for punk rock.

  96. 96.

    Texas Dem

    There’s no guarantee Stupak votes yes even with his abortion language included. Personally I don’t trust that weaseling snake any more than I can throw him.

    Good point. But he voted yes the last time, and if he committed to voting yes and fucked us over at the last minute he’d be in even deeper shit than he is now. You just don’t leave the party hanging like that after giving your word, that is, if you want to have any future in the House. The speaker is not someone you want to piss off.

  97. 97.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    I think Pelosi will wrangle enough votes to squeak this thing thru without Stupak language. If anyone can it would be her.

  99. 99.

    tc125231

    His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly shared growth. Everything else—the legislative tactics, even most individual policies—is negotiable. He wants to chart the course for the supertanker, not to steer it around each wave or decide which crates are loaded into its hull.

    Well, it’s a theory. It might even correctly describe his intentions.

    Whether his current tactics will successfully achieve that goal remains to be seen.

  100. 100.

    Yutsano

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck: That and Obama is going back up to the Hill to smack some final sense into them. Between those two and the pressure we can put on them (my Rep is a lost cause, he’s a pork-addicted long-time Republican) this might just happen.

    @freelancer: Ha. The Dawg could probably manage it, but I doubt I’d ask him to. It would be an undignified use of his abilities.

  101. 101.

    Bootlegger

    I still like Obama, still like my vote for him, and will still work for him in ’12. But, and I mean a BIG BUT, is his continuation of Bush’s detention policies. I’m with Greenwald on this, Obama promised he would change the way we treated suspected terrorists, he did so as a Constitutional lawyer (and one presumes expert), but now he’s no better than Cheny and Co.

    The rest of his political maneuvering I can deal with, but deciding that we can lock people in cages without trial, or execute people with legal process, NO FUCKING way I’m with him on that.

  104. 104.

    Dennis G.

    @Texas Dem:

    The search is for a way for Stupak and his deadenders to find a way to ‘save face’ and vote for the Bill. I suspect that a contrivance will be arranged. Most likely it will be a mechanism to reaffirm the that fucking Hyde Amendment is still the fucking law of the land and that HCR does not change that. As the fucking Hyde Amendment is actually still the fucking law of the land and that HCR sadly does nothing to change that this bit of legislative kabuki theatre will only matter to folks who think the sky is always falling and I fully expect them to report it as such.

    Once HCR passes, the Hyde Amendment will still be a blight on our National liberty and it will still be a law that we need to overturn–even if it takes years.

    This is a fight worth having, but it is not a fight worth killing HCR over as nothing in the Bill changes anything.

    Stupak is a drama queen. If he pisses you off, then support his primary opponent and work to toss the son of a bitch out of Congress.

    Cheers

  105. 105.

    Pam C./femlaw

    Hmm, that sounds like a familiar thesis . . . :-)

    But I will definitely read it, as it is right in line with a lot of what you and I both have written about this Presidency.

    But first, we have to pass healthcare. Because that is the game changer in terms of beginning to reframe the political culture about government and its role in our lives.

  107. 107.

    Yutsano

    @Dennis G.: Sent her $100 as soon as I found out about her. I honestly could care less if he loses to a Rep at this point, I want that man out of a job come November. The simple fact is without his monkeying about we wouldn’t be where we are right now period.

    @Pam C./femlaw: A lot is going to change after the passage of health care. A LOT. We may even see quite a bit more progressive legislation come to the fore after this gets put aside (for now) and Obama can finally breathe. I of course will be agitating for a couple of my causes afterwards (one is actually something that affects all American workers and I’ll blab about it later) but GET THIS DONE FIRST. It’s too damn important to us all.

  111. 111.

    SocSci

    Stupak is being a dick, but he wouldn’t be needed if Lynch and others claiming they don’t support the bill because it isn’t progressive enough would vote YES.

    Damn liberals, making the bill more conservative.

  112. 112.

    General Egali Tarian Stuck

    @Kristine: You are right. This is a tempest/teapot. It got me rattled a little, and that hasn’t happened too often on the bill passing.

  113. 113.

    freelancer

    @Yutsano:

    “I want to change the sentiment. We’re running away from ourselves. And I know we can score points that way. I was a principle architect of that campaign strategy right along with you Josh. But we’re here now. Tomorrow night we do an immense thing. We have to say what we feel, that government no matter what it’s failures in the past and in times to come for that matter, government can be a place where people come together and where no one gets left behind. No one gets left behind. An instrument of good. I have no trouble understanding why the line tested well, Josh, but I don’t think that means we should say it. I think that means we should change it.”

    I think this moment is one we’re kind of meekly anticipating.

  114. 114.

    Yutsano

    @freelancer: Dear God that creeped me out, mostly because I was starting to wonder how in the hell you knew my real name. Then it hit me and I feel stupid. :)

  115. 115.

    DougL (frmrly: Conservatively Liberal)

    @Yutsano:

    If Obama and the Dems pull this off the Repubs are going to be hurting bad. If the people like the bill they will be on the wrong side of history (again). FDR was reelected four times because as much as the right hates and despises him, many more loved him for getting some good things done for the little people.

    If they are on the wrong side of this it will take years for them to recover. They will become a largely regional party (the south) and at that point they become completely irrelevant. They are fighting for their lives right now and they know it, their desperation is plain to see.

    If this passes, they will become the party of “just words” because that’s all they’ll have left.

    @General Egali Tarian Stuck:

    Agree. :)

  117. 117.

    Texas Dem

    Damn liberals, making the bill more conservative.

    You mean stupid liberals. At times like this I almost admire the GOP’s incredible party discipline. You didn’t see Republicans fucking their party over like this when it controlled the House. When the party called a tough vote, everyone fell into line because they were afraid not to.

    Then again, that kind of party discipline is what gave us the Iraq war, so chaos has its advantages.

  118. 118.

    Yutsano

    @freelancer: I’m fortunate that I have a good common Quebecois surname. I’m even distantly related to a Senator up north in fact. Also distant cousins to the Dionne quintuplets. No relation to Celine thank the Fates.

    @DougL (frmrly: Conservatively Liberal): I’d like this to be true, but Americans won’t go the way of the British after the NHS was enacted. We’re too short-sighted and too easily misled.

  119. 119.

    Comrade Mary

    @SocSci:

    Stupak is being a dick, but he wouldn’t be needed if Lynch and others claiming they don’t support the bill because it isn’t progressive enough would vote YES.
    __
    Damn liberals, making the bill more conservative.

    Wouldn’t it be lovely if this was a dog and pony show meant to scare the shit out of stiffbacked progressives and make them support the bill as is, sans Stupak?

    I know, I know. Not likely. Even if this is meant as a facesaving move for Stupak and won’t materially change the bill, I’m still pissed about this.

  120. 120.

    Texas Dem

    Even if this is meant as a facesaving move for Stupak and won’t materially change the bill, I’m still pissed about this.

    Progressives aren’t the only ones who need a deal here. Stupak also needs a deal. I seriously doubt he wants to known as the guy who killed health care reform. That would make him the toast of Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, but that isn’t going to do much good unless Stupak wants to switch parties. Yet Stupak would not be good fit for the GOP because, like nearly all Blue Dog or conservative Dems, he’s far to the left of most Republicans. He’d never survive a contested GOP primary.

    If anyone can find a way to talk Stupak off the ledge, it’s Pelosi. Given her track record when it comes to close House votes, I wouldn’t bet against her.

  122. 122.

    GeeYourHairSmellsTerrific

    His aim is to establish a long-term political direction—one centered on a more activist government that shapes and polices the market to strengthen the foundation for sustainable, broadly shared growth.

    Totally agree, I’ve been subject to the “fuck Obama” mentality more than once myself. The more I’ve watched the HCR process unfold, the more I’ve realized, he might actually know what he’s doing. Meep, Meep as Sully says. Indeed

    Even congressional fuckheads like Kucinich (I’ll also predict Stupak (R-Fetus City USA) will vote yes) are falling in line. This, with the teabagging screamers burning up the congressional phones (I do actually wonder if and when the congressional staffers that man the phones, might start to become immune to the fauxrage and just start ignoring it).

    Maybe this is the change I’ve been waiting for…just came different package than I was expecting.

  126. 126.

    Texas Dem

    Wouldn’t it be lovely if this was a dog and pony show meant to scare the shit out of stiffbacked progressives and make them support the bill as is, sans Stupak?

    Another possibility (unlikely but possible) is that Dems already have the votes without Stupak and they’re simply trying to get the remaining Stupak followers on board in order to give more vulnerable Dems a pass. We’ll know by the end of the day Saturday whether the Dems really have the votes. If they really schedule a floor vote, then it’s going to pass. No way you bring a bill like this to a vote if the votes aren’t there.

  127. 127.

    Ron

    @Moses2317: I live in Arcuri’s district and tried to call yesterday. I’ll try to call again today, but the weasel has at least so far committed to voting no.

  128. 128.

    khead

    Rick Boucher – Virginia (Abingdon, Pulaski, Big Stone Gap) – 202-225-3861

    Nick Rahall – West Virginia (Beckley, Bluefield, Huntington, Logan) – (202) 225-3452

    Sorry for a link that may make John’s head explode before 8AM on a Saturday, but Rahall claims to be hung up on abortion.

    Boucher represents Wise County, VA.

  129. 129.

    TR

    @Ron:

    I’ll try to call again today, but the weasel has at least so far committed to voting no.

    Be sure to tell his intern that if he votes yes, you’ll be spending time and money on his re-election effort. If he votes no, you’ll take that time and money and devote it to his defeat.

  130. 130.

    Grumpy Code Monkey

    @Quiddity:

    I think a legitimate complaint is the slowness of the process.

    This is a feature, not a bug. The legislative process is supposed to be slow, inefficient, and compromise-ridden. You do not want law passed in the heat of the moment; you do not want emotion and passion to dictate legislation. Lawmaking is like medicine — “first, do no harm.” Making it hard to get legislation passed is part of that philosophy.

    No, this bill isn’t all it could be. We didn’t get the Civil Rights Act right the first time either. This bill (soon to be law, hopefully) is the first step on a thousand-mile journey. We have to undo thirty (hell, fifty) years of “Government is the problem.”

  131. 131.

    sparky

    uh, is anyone asking the direction of the supertanker? for example, RR changed the course to speed up deregulation in the FIRE sector, which brought us the lovely little S&L debacle. from here, Obama looks similar, because the centerpiece of this legislation is guaranteed profits for private industry. why do i say this? because if the requisite deals hadn’t been cut with pharma & hosps., y’all wouldn’t be talking about having this morass close to passage.

    and the notion that somehow passage of a corporate giveaway is going to open the floodgates of progressive legislation is, to put it kindly, a pleasant fantasy. have you been paying any attention to what is going on WRT FIRE?

    finally, i am pleased to see someone point out how Obama has become Bush II WRT civil liberties. and i notice not a single person has even agreed.

    edit: @Grumpy Code Monkey: i agree with the point as to combatting the “gov’t is the problem” mantra, but it seems to me this bill will reinforce that mantra. though there are a few sops to the serfs, it can’t seriously be argued that this is a step in the right direction.

  134. 134.

    Tucker

    Called Boucher (I lived in Blacksburg for ten years), staffer said he was still taking a look at the bill but sounded happy to hear from a Yes.

    Called Barry (lots of family near Jonesboro and also in dirt-poor Phillips County), got an answering machine and a full mailbox. Course, Barry’s insisting he’s a No and there’s absolutely no impetus for him to change that: he ran unopposed in ’08 and I think again this year.

  135. 135.

    AxelFoley

    @MikeJ:

    @JGabriel: Do we get to hear the lamentations of their women?

    ROFL! This post is full of Cimmerian win.

  136. 136.

    Liberty60

    Brownstein captures what I find most atractive about Obama. Unlike the standard Progressive pols, he isn’t looking at incremental narrow special intersts, but at the big picture of the relationship of people to their government.
    In retrospect, his seeming detachment from HCR last summer and fall seems more like his attempt to break with the Bush pattern of the bullying, authoritarian executive; he let Congress actually have a chance to legislate, however ugly and messy it was.

    Obama is putting forward the notion that government is not the enemy; that government can actually do good things, and effectively.

    This is a radical pushback against the conservative mantra, the Village conventional wisdom, against the curled lip cynicism of the GOP and DNC both.

    If we win this, the tragectory will return to the New Deal understanding of government; that the private sector needs the steadying hand of the government to keep it from straying.

  137. 137.

    WereBear

    One thing about the long process is that it was a teaching tool. We got to know exactly where everyone stood on the position of needlessly and heedlessly letting people die for profit.

    And I think the number of people thinking about that went up dramatically.

    I’m certain the opposition will continue to drag things out, but it also opens them up to the kind of soundbites which have been accumulating.

  139. 139.

    The Raven

    @Pam C./femlaw:

    Why don’t we wait and find out what the real story [on abortion] is? I’m not convinced we have all the facts right now.

    The Stupak language was published yesterday, so no need to guess. Fortunately, it died. Of course, there’s still the Senate bill, which is almost as bad. Also, there’s talk of an “executive order” on abortion and no-one has any idea of what’s going to be in it, but it’s not going to be good for women–the Stupak gang is going to demand a lot.

    Well, hey, more food for us corvids!

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