The Democratic “no” vote (on HCR) that puzzles me the most is Mike Arcuri in NY-24. He’s in a dead even Cook PVI district that was long held by moderate Republican Sherry Boehlert (who was usually one of the dozen or so most liberal Republicans in the House). I grew up in this district.
Arcuri barely squeaked by a badly underfunded Republican challenger in 2008 and that’s probably why he’s voting “no”. But there are other dynamics here that make a “no” vote crazy.
First off, NYS is due for redistricting in 2010, which will probably be controlled by Democrats. After the census, NYS will probably lose a seat and it may not be possible to squeeze out another Republican. If a Democrat has to get squeezed, I’ve got to think it will be Arcuri.
That whole situation is in flux, though, and maybe someone in the state party owes him a favor. But one thing that the party cannot control is the unions. NYS unions are very powerful in part because they’re not afraid to withhold endorsements from Democrats. In fact, they have their own third party — the Working Families Party — that exists for this very purpose. The WFP is already talking up a third-party challenge to Arcuri (assuming he votes “no”, as he says he will) and with a union-backed, third-party candidate on the ballot, there is no way Arcuri can win a general election. This wouldn’t be true if the district were Dem-dominated, but in an even district in New York State, a Democrat can’t win without union support.
The unions would love to have a well-preserved Democratic body around to scare Democratic candidates with. If that means giving the seat to a Republican, it’s probably no great loss: there are plenty of union-friendly Republicans in NYS and a tea-bagger probably won’t be viable in the district for long, especially with Democrats probably controlling redistricting. The worst case scenario for liberals in the district is probably another Sherry Boehlert type Congressman and that’s just not that bad.
Sticking Michael Arcuri’s head on a pike along I-90 seems like a no-brainer for the unions here. He must know this.
Davis X. Machina
Maybe he and Steve Lynch (D-MA9) can share a tumbrel.
Michele
I put this on the other thread, but thought I would repost it here.
I just sent a fax to Michael Arcuri. I live in NC but donated to his campaign last year after the Yes for HCR vote. This week, I got my second campaign solicitation this year from him. I indicated in my letter that not only should they remove my name from their mailing list, but that I would also be donating substantially to a primary challenger when one emerges.
I was able to check on ActBlue Express the various candidates I donated to over the last two years. Even though I’m not a constituent, I’m hoping that speaking with my credit card will also get some attention.
Tim and Doug and John – first time I’ve done this. Thank you for constantly encouraging it.
Rhoda
When the facts are that crystal clear, I just suspect someone’s getting paid off somehow, some way, somewhere. Or, he’s just that stupid. Which is a genuine possibility; I don’t know the guy but this isn’t particularly smart.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Lynch is up there too on puzzling list too, isn’t he? I’ve seen a lot of chatter that he thinks this is the smart play to win Brown voters if/when he goes for the Senate. Does he think there won’t be a primary? These people are not sarmt
wvng
I can’t imagine that any Dem who votes against this has any chance of winning. The Dem base will simply be furious with them.
DougJ
@Rhoda:
He is stupid. That much is true.
This is either *really stupid* or there’s some angle on it that isn’t obvious. But I think he’s too dumb for the non-obvious angle. My guess is that he thinks this helps him politically.
DougJ
@Michele:
Awesome, Michelle.
I am going to call his office too.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Michele:
Ooh, good to know.
FMguru
I wonder if he’s figured his close call (in a Dem landslide year) meant his political career was coming to an end soon anyway, and this is audition for a lucrative post-Congress gig lobbying for the fatcats.
I’m convinced this is one of the reasons that it’s so hard to get any leverage on “Centrist” senators and reps – they’re ultimate goal isn’t to get re-elected or to enact liberal policies, it’s to set themselves (and their families) up for a big influencing-peddling second career. Legalized bribery, just time-shifted a decade into the future.
Taylor
Blue Jersey says follow the money.
This scuzball is either stupid or a whore, or a stupid whore.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
MSNBC airing Der Boner’s weekly address as balance.
rob!
I’d like to put Arcuri in a rocketship with John Adler (with only The National Review as reading material), and launch it to the fucking moon.
Maybe then Obama would have to increase NASA funding, and we’d get these two dipshits out of Congress. Win-win.
scarpy
Second on the “WTF Steve Lynch” thing. I’m from his district. I can see the reasons he doesn’t like it — a lot of union rank-and-file have been pretty slow to warm up to it. But I wonder if a bigger thing is maybe his folks (somewhat conservative white South Boston) are sour on Obama after the whole Skip Gates/beer summit business? That is the only way this makes sense, because otherwise he should be verrrry susceptible to union strong-arming. He is their creature, after all.
Unless it IS about the Senate, and he really thinks Mass will go red in 2012. In which case, well, good luck, buddy.
Violet
I figure he’s got a cushy job lined up already and he knows he’ll lose and doesn’t care. Why else would he do this?
The Grand Panjandrum
This really is puzzling. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Arcuri has got to know his demise is locked in if he votes no. On the other hand we can thank the teabaggers for your guy being elected and his yes vote! This probably helps his reelection chances considerably because the unions will continue to support him.
wvng
A constituent post at TPM regarding Arcuri at a town hall said:
So, is he being blackmailed?
DougJ
@Violet:
I think he may too dumb for a lobbying job. We all thought another local Congressman — Randy Kuhl — was going to get a lobbying job for all the water he carried. He didn’t though.
BB
As a local, but somewhat removed from the 24th, I’d always heard that Arcuri was a really dim bulb. I dismissed it as teabagger nonsense but I’m no longer certain.
Since we’re better at political strategy than Mr. Arcuri, I have to agree with Doug. This guy is a brilliant target to get a “body” to wave around. The NY unions can easily sink him, WFP is pissed like crazy, Hanna (his opponent) isn’t the most terrible outcome, and if anything gets out of hand, the contours and centrality of his district make it very easy to eliminate.
The situation is prime to make an example out of Arcuri, and this is an issue worth doing it over.
Napoleon
His vote flip flop is simply insane. On top of it if he happens to loose anyways, and worse HCR goes down by a vote and he barely looses, if he has any heart he will never again sleep well at night.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I saw posted on two separate lefty sites I consider reasonable where he has real social conservative tendencies and that some thought he could be secretly with Stupak, but didn’t dare say that was why he would vote against it.
Violet
@DougJ:
Maybe he’s too dumb to realize he won’t get a cushy lobbying job.
kth
There are probably a couple dozen Democrats who want the bill to pass but without their names on it. The reason this hasn’t already passed is that the leadership has to nail down who *can’t* vote yes and who would merely prefer not to. No way the unions are naive enough about the process to punish someone for a wrong vote on something that ultimately prevailed (obviously all bets are off if, against all indications, the bill fails).
Dave161
I live in the district…I keep calling. I don’t get it. The district includes a lot of activists (outside of Ithaca and Binghamton) on whom Arcuri depends for volunteers and financial support. In my crowd, we’re all astounded and pissed off. He’s done a lot of damage, particularly if he comes through as a “no” tomorrow. All the progressive Ithaca activists worked for Arcuri because they’re already represented by Maurice Hinchey. They won’t have any energy for Arcuri after this debacle.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@scarpy:
Still, really? I am way out of touch with my white ethnic/working class roots, but as I think about it, a lot of my professionally Irish cousins are probably on that boat.
(Holy crap! reporter on MSNBC is referring to “only 51 votes, a simple majority as opposed to the normal 60” as “another controversial procedure”. The normal 60. Jesus fucking christ)
blackwaterdog
After Obama’s speech now, anyone who’ll vote NO will look exactly like the jerk that he really is.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
I figure it’s like something like Teague in my district, though wingnuts there are no Rockefeller Republicans, but it generally applies in districts historically held by the GOP and focusing and fearing that GOP response if you are a dem. Teague was going to lose in Nov no matter he did, but chose to give quarter to those wingnuts who will not reciprocate that favor and will vote for their own. I called and threatened to with hold my vote from Teague, but won’t for my own personal reasons to say I voted against Steve Pearce, who will reclaim the seat. The fucker is dumber than 6 sacks of Hatchetts and I look forward to resuming my love letters and calls from hell to him. And want the credibility of voting for his opponent.
If I suddenly drop off the grid, I hope to get a personal BJ actblue page to be bailed out of jail from saying something I shouldn’t have to the tin plated dufus.
DougJ
@kth:
That is true. But Arcuri is one guy who will really get fucked if he votes “no”. The WFP probably wishes he would vote against it, so they can fuck him up (to put it in Cedric the Entertainer terms). That is how they think, IMHO.
Violet
Is it too late to primary him? When’s the filing deadline?
DougJ
@Violet:
The filing deadline must be a ways off. The primary isn’t til September.
The primary isn’t the thing, though. The thing is the WFP challenger. That’s a death sentence.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Violet: I read yesterday that someone was trying to re-draft his primary opponent from the last cycle, a physician. Can’t remember where it was, but the guy was quoted as being pretty open to a run.
ETA: That google is a wonderful thing. From Politico
Liberal New York leaders have approached an prominent epidemiologist about challenging Rep. Michael Arcuri from the left over his health care vote.
“I’m stunned at how many emails and calls I’ve gotten in hte last 24 hours — mostly from people on Democratic county committees,” Dr. Les Roberts told POLITICO, saying he also received a call this morning from Working Families Party leaders.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0310/Possible_Arcuri_challenger_emerges.html?showall
Violet
If the health care bill passes, and he has voted No, will this all just melt away and be forgotten? Or will people vow to Never Forget?
I’ve got a bit of a revenge streak, and don’t think No votes that aren’t somewhat approved by Dem leadership (they allowed Reps in tough districts to vote No because they had other votes) should be allowed to slide.
PeakVT
But there are other dynamics here that make a “no” vote crazy.
Such as the fact that nobody likes a gutless worm. When will Dems get clued in on this?
No, don’t answer that.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Wow, unchecked demagoguery from elected officials and media grand poobahs has consequences.
Feds investigate brick thrown at Louise Slaughter’s office in Niagara Falls
No one could have predicted….
demo woman
@Violet: I’m hoping that during the vote tomorrow John puts up an actblue account. I’m not willing to give directly to the house or senate but would give to act blue for reps who voted for the bill.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
more effects of demagoguery
dr. bloor
@kth:
Yes. We won’t know until after the vote who’s really screwing over the caucus v. those who had the go-ahead to vote no on it.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
and still more
Maude
@General Egali Tarian Stuck: I got yer bail money right here. I sold a lot of soda cans.
Violet
Ugh.
If this does pass, the legal challenges are going to be really annoying. Figures Texas would be among the first to challenge.
NickM
The right is not getting its way, and is resorting to physical intimidation, which is where they’ve always seemed to be headed.
mcc
Finally got through to Arcuri’s office after a couple days of trying; “Cannot leave a message because the mailbox is full”. Hah.
Teague’s office is all busy signals.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
@Maude: Thanks!!
mcc
Finally got through to teague, mailbox was full. I guess all the offices quit work at 5 PM.
@Violet: It’s fascinating they talk about challenging “the health care bill”. They never say what it is they’re going to challenge. Just like… the bill in general?
Violet
@mcc:
Judging from the trolls who post here, the mandate may be something they start with. But yeah, it’s not like they can just challenge “the bill.” There’s a lot of stuff in there. They’re going to have to be specific.
I think they may make some noise about it initially, but pretty soon people will realize the sky hasn’t fallen and the whole thing will kind of go away. Except for being used as talking points during campaigns, maybe. But if people’s taxes haven’t gone up, they still have their health care, they can choose their own doctor, etc., it’s going to be hard to make a big deal out of it and get anyone to pay attention.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
@mcc: Fuck Teague. I got through yesterday and tried several times with no luck today, and am not going to waste any more cell minutes on the asshat. He was a no the first vote with bullshit reasons and same this time, and was always a no vote. Too many rabid New Texican tea baggers have him running scared. He’s toast in Nov anyway.
JGabriel
@Napoleon:
Aaargh! There is ONE ‘o’ in ‘loses’. ONE!
Sorry, you hit a pet peeve. Pedantic rant over.
.
JGabriel
Politico via Jim, Foolish Literalist:
As duly noted by DougJ, the WFP opposition will be a death blow to Arcuri’s chances. Dems on the county committee no doubt know that and are preemptively seeking a primary opponent the WFP can support.
.
Napoleon
@mcc:
Just a technical point, but it may be the same thing. In drafting a legal document you often include a “savings clause” because if you attack just one part of a contract and get it declared unenforceable the court could then go on to say it was an important part of the scheme of the document and therefore the document as a whole fails in its entirety. If I recall the same concept applies to laws, but it has been 15 years since I looked at a bill as opposed to a code, but I seem to recall enacted bills often had a similar thing in them.
So theoretically under proper circumstances you get the mandate tossed the whole law goes.
By the way, if there is one thing I think it would be hysterical if they actually got a court to say was not enforceable without the entire law getting tossed it would be the mandate because it would quickly drive private insurance to ruin (assuming they could not deny coverage for preexisting conditions) and force the government to step in with a defacto single payer system.
Napoleon
@JGabriel:
Sorry, I am a terrible speller and to make it worse I barely proof internet postings.
themann1086
So I’ve been using dday’s whip count as a guide, and he’s done great work on it, but remind me to never again go into the comment sections there… it’s insane.
lamh31
Tea Party Protests: ‘Ni**er,’ ‘Faggot’ Shouted At Members Of Congress
“A staffer for Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told reporters that Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-M.D.) had been spit on by a protestor. Rep. John Lewis (D-G.A.), a hero of the civil rights movement, was called a ‘ni–er.’ And Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) was called a “faggot,” as protestors shouted at him with deliberately lisp-y screams. Frank, approached in the halls after the president’s speech, shrugged off the incident.
But Clyburn was downright incredulous, saying he had not witnessed such treatment since he was leading civil rights protests in South Carolina in the 1960s.
“It was absolutely shocking to me,” Clyburn told the Huffington Post. “Last Monday, this past Monday, I stayed home to meet on the campus of Claflin University where fifty years ago as of last Monday… I led the first demonstrations in South Carolina, the sit ins… And quite frankly I heard some things today I have not heard since that day. I heard people saying things that I have not heard since March 15, 1960 when I was marching to try and get off the back of the bus.”
“It doesn’t make me nervous as all,” the congressman said, when asked how the mob-like atmosphere made him feel. “In fact, as I said to one heckler, I am the hardest person in the world to intimidate, so they better go somewhere else…”
Bobby Thomson
Occam’s Razor. Arcuri has already been paid by the insurance industry. Not with promises of future employment. Cash up front.
That or someone has photos of a live boy/dead girl moment.
Bobby Thomson
@kth:
Oh, think again. Arcuri isn’t doing this because his district demands a No vote and will vote him out. Quite the contrary. He votes no and he’s gone, no matter what the result or margin is. They are going to fuck his shit up and enjoy doing it.
Ron
I’m in Arcuri’s district and as I’ve said in other places, this position is completely mystifying to me. I can’t believe that he thinks that by voting no after he voted yes for the more liberal house bill, he will pick up republican votes, and by pissing off the labor unions and the WFP he’s destroyed his hope of keeping the base behind him. But frankly, I think what happened in 2008 indicates that he just assumes he will win without really having to do anything. The primary filing deadline is still a ways off in NY (May or June IIRC) so I hope they can find someone decent to run against him.
DougJ
@Ron:
WFP will get him. A primary would be great, but a viable union-backed WFP candidate is a death sentence for him in November.