On the first day of iPad availability, here’s my prediction: more iPhone than iPod. In other words, it will be an interesting, widely-adopted gadget, but Apple won’t own the whole category.
Two big reasons that Apple owns the portable music player market are sync and the music store. When iPod was introduced, no other manufacturer had a sync program that came close to iTunes. iTunes moved the portable music player from the category of fiddly tech gadget to must-have device. And, pre-iPod, the only way to get legal downloads was to rip your own CDs. The iTunes Music Store changed that, and iTunes DRM makes it tough for people who have purchased music from Apple to change players.
iPhone is successful device, but it’s not a market-owner like iPod. In North America, Blackberry outsells iPhone by almost 2:1. Worldwide, Nokia eats everyone else’s lunch in the smartphone market. Part of the reason that iPhone isn’t the number one US smartphone is contract lock-in and AT&T exclusivity. But people still buy Blackberries on the AT&T network, and Nokia smartphones worldwide, so having an existing, decent set of competitors cut into iPhone’s smartphone share. On the low end, the reason everyone doesn’t have an iPhone is cost: a regular cell phone still makes calls and texts. iPhone is more luxury than necessity.
Like iPhone, iPad is an optional device. Most people already have a PC or laptop that does a lot of what iPad does. And, like iPhone, Apple’s competitors aren’t asleep. Equipment manufacturers can, and will, make pad devices that run either Google Android or Chrome, without paying a cent to Google. Expect the market to be flooded with these devices by the end of the year.
It may sound like I’m addressing a straw man: of course everyone isn’t going to run out to buy a $500 electronic device in the middle of almost 10% unemployment. If you think that, you probably haven’t spent much time around the tech blogs lately. They’re treating this device like the second coming.
Undercover FBI Agent DougJ
I’m off to see one right now.
asiangrrlMN
Goddamn it, I don’t give a damn about the iPad, just like I didn’t give a damn about the iPod or the iPhone, either. I probably won’t give a damn about the iPencil, either, when it comes out. And you kids get off my lawn.
Whew. I feel much better.
Mike Kay
I just use a cell phone.
I understand people who commute on public transit wanting a smart phone to surf the net.
But if you live in a town were driving is easy, you really only need a simple phone for making calls and light texts.
mistermix
@Agent DougJ – I’m interested to get your take on it.
Ash Can
What’s the point of the iPad, anyway?
valdivia
obviously not buying one but I am dying to know how it works, what people think of it. maybe I drank the kool-aid but I think it is super cool. yeah shoot me.
jurassicpork
Apres le deluge, c’est assholes.
NeenerNeener
Well, I know I won’t be getting one until they weigh a whole lot less. I’ve used a 12 oz Nook, and 15 minutes of holding that up in front of my face really bothered my hands and arms (the Nook has other major issues, but I won’t go into those now), so a tablet computer that weighs twice as much as the Nook is out of the question for me.
Mike Kay
@Ash Can It sounds like a cross btwn an IPhone and a Laptop. Something that has a much bigger screen than a phone but is lighter and thinner than a laptop.
So if you live in a high density area, like a city or college town, or you need to commute from the suburbs to the city, you’ll end up spending a good part of the day on public transit or at coffee shops, so this pad would work great for people wanting to pass the time surfing blogs, email, while listening to music, etc.
debit
According to an article I read yesterday, a fair amount of Blackberry owners have buyers remorse and wish they had an iphone or an Android. I know I was dismissive of the iphone when it first came out and was a reluctant adopter; now I don’t know what I would do without it.
Apple gets a lot of crap for designing “cute” gadgets. My ex was the computer buyer for Team Electronics back in the early 80s. We got to play with a lot of new computers before they hit the market. We were probably one of a handful of families to have a Lisa (10K retail) and later the first Macintosh. I remember looking at the mouse and asking, “What the hell is this?” My ex said, “Steve Jobs says one day these will be as commonly used as a pencil.” We both had a good laugh. What a crazy concept, eh?
Whackjob Militia Leader soonergrunt
Of course, one of the reasons thatthe other devices that will come out soon will cost less is because they don’t include the baseless smugness in the box like Apple products do.
The iPod is great. Everything else Apple makes is way overpriced for what you get.
Mike Kay
@debit So what do you do with your Iphone that you couldn’t do with a blackberry phone?
Yellowdog
Slightly OT but still on the tech front, I guess–I still have no Reply arrow, no matter where I move my mouse around a comment. And I have a row of Quicktags buttons AND a row of Comments buttons.
Firefox 3.6.3 on Vista.
mr. whipple
I still don’t have an ipod.
I’m a late adapter.
Nutella
Yes, the iPhone is known as the “Jesus phone” in some circles.
Apple is hoping to corner the market on books and magazines so they can be locked in to iTunes, too. This would be a very bad thing for everyone except Apple.
As long as they don’t succeed with that diabolical plan, what will happen with iPad is the same as what happened with iPhone: Many will buy it and Apple will make a lot of $$$, but most will buy cheaper and more open devices. PCs still outsell Macs by a huge margin.
The thing that amazes me is the religious fervor of the fanboys, most of whom have not even seen the thing yet.
some other guy
It’s a cool looking device, but it seems a bit gimmicky. Aside from sending certain cultural/social signals, I’m not sure what the killer benefit of owning an iPad is.
Like you said, the iPhone is a luxury. It’s actually more of a luxury version of an essential device. Virtually everyone has a cellphone anyway, and if you’re going to sign up for an we-own-your-first-born contract, you might as well get an awesome phone with it, too.
What makes the iPad anything more than a luxury item? It’s the thinnest and lightest device of its size, but it’s still too large to practically carry around with you outside the house unless you’re always lugging around a handbag of some sort… in which case one can get a netbook for $200 cheaper, or even a low-profile full fledged laptop (think: Acer Timeline series) for around the same price.
BethanyAnne
All the coverage at the gadget places has me thinking about an iPad. If I had money at the moment, which I don’t, it would be fairly far down my list. It’s shiny, and I have the “ooo, shiny” response, but I really think a Kindle + iPhone would be a better use of my (theoretical) money.
mr. whipple
Yellowdog: I’m getting same on Opera.
calling all toasters
It’s all about consuming media (generally for a fee), hence no keyboard, no multitasking. Because Americans don’t have enough time in front of the boob tube as is.
Mike Kay
@Nutella:
No kidding. You would think it was the public option.
snarkout
My mother-in-law is strongly considering getting one. She uses her computer at home for surfing the web (Flickr, food blogs, eBay, and news sites mostly), watching videos, and writing blog posts and email. Having a reasonably cheap, easy-to-use device that does that well, has an all-day battery life, and is better designed for use from her armchair is really appealing to her. I would say most people who aren’t heavy gamers and who have never opened Photoshop or a text editor are going to enjoy this and whatever the Nexus One equivalent is.
@soonergrunt:
Dude, this is the same price as the JooJoo (nee the CruchPad). Apple killed it on the pricing, assuming you don’t want to get a 3G model.
EriktheRed
All I can say is as cool as the iPod is (my daughter has a nano, so I know), my Sansa Fuze does me just fine. It works with Rhapsody, which IMHO works just as well as iTunes and unlike iTunes doesn’t sell songs in a format that can’t be played elswhere.
Bruuuuce
Whi I Won’t Buy An iPad and Think You Shouldn’t Either — Cory Doctorow nails it, for me. If I can’t do ANYTHING I want with my device, once I buy it, I don’t really own it, which is why I don’t and won’t own an i-anything. (He also nails who the target market is, i.e., folks who want an information appliance.)
I do want a tablet, though, but am waiting for one of the anticipated ones due in a few months, that (1) I can install what I want on, (2) runs Flash, and (3) has a screen by Pixel Qi, which (according to the gadget blogs) beats current screen technology eight ways from Sunday.
raff
“… it will be an interesting, widely-adopted gadget, but Apple won’t own the whole category.”
Er, yeah, it will, simply because it’s in a category by itself. As Yglesias & many others have pointed out, it’s a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. What does the iPad replace or improve upon? It’s too big to be a convenient music/video player/smart phone & too underpowered to pose a serious threat to the netbook brand.
mai naem
I have neither a Ipod nor an Iphone. Have no intention of getting an Ipad. I have a buddy who tried to sell me a tablet laptop for $500 but I cannot see myself being gentle enough to any kind of tablet laptop. I’m not a luddite by any means. I’ve bought a couple of Ipods and ended up giving them away to my niece and nephew. And I love my older but not ancient Kyocera phone. Love it so much I bought one on craigslist jost so that I have one for backup when the current one goes bye bye. I think I have gotten to the age where I am not willing to adapt to new tech if there’s too much work involved.
dan robinson
The richest woman in the world can’t buy an iPhone. Because she is married to Bill Gates. Her friends have them, and they look cool, but she has to use a phone that runs Windows Mobile. Who said that there is no justice in the world?
I was on the Microsoft campus recently, eating lunch at one of the restaurants in “The Mixer” and noted the AT&T store there. They don’t carry the iPhone at the AT&T store on the MS campus. There were lots of iPhones visible among the people using phones in the place though. Link to article about MS campus and The Mixer. http://food-management.com/business_topics/design/microsoft-west-campus-0709/
If I am alone at home and watching television, I often have my MacBook near me and when I want to look up something quickly on the web, I pop it open and scan for things. For example, I was rewatching “Breaker Morant” and wanted to learn more about the Boer War. I paused the movie and ran down links for 15 minutes. I think the iPad will be great for that.
debit
@Mike Kay Keep in mind, I didn’t say I preferred the iphone to the Blackberry. It was an article like this one that said the iphone was winning the cell phone battle. However, I don’t believe Blackberry has the apps the iphone does, and one I use every day during the summer is Trail Guru. I also like knowing that if there is an app out there I’d need, I can probably find it in less than a minute and buy it for .99 (unless it’s free) or ask my son the programmer to make one for me, since he has the iphone SDK. Also? The GPS keeps me from getting lost.
jeffreyw
@mr. whipple: Late adapters are in danger of extinction. Late adopters, on the other hand, prefer to let the new devices kill off the rash.
MattF
I’m doubtful about the iPad, mainly for ergonomic reasons. It’s too heavy to hold up for long periods of time, too big to be a really mobile device, the wrong shape to use easily when it’s flat on a table. At the same time, other ergonomically OK devices that people already have (music player, smart phone, laptop) do everything that an iPad can do. In its favor, it looks like the tricorders everybody used on Star Trek, so… what do I know?
mr. whipple
“@mr. whipple: Late adapters are in danger of extinction.”
That, too, so I see little point in buying an iPod.
Bruuuuce
@debit: That’s all well and good, unless Apple doesn’t approve the app for sale in the first place. In that case, you’re SoL, having to either jailbreak your iPhone (and void your warranty) or not do what you want to do, for any amount of money.
jeffreyw
@mr.whipple: It’s not about the Ipod, it’s about the mustard. By the way, are you mcnod?
Comrade Mary
I have no interest in the iPad. Other people will find it works for them, and that’s great.
Money is still a bit tight around here, but once things improve, I will be getting an iPhone to replace my clunky old Blackberry. I hardly ever use the BB as a phone because the sound quality is so poor, and I forward most business calls to my personal phone line when I’m working at home. I use it mostly to check my email on the go and to do a little surfing.
The killer iPhone app for me is GPS and easy to view Google maps. When I’m out on my bike in a strange place, I currently either have to have a bunch of paper maps with me (which don’t always help when I get into a residential area of twisty little streets, all alike) or I spend a lot of time hunting down strangers and begging for directions.
(Call up the web site for Google maps on my Blackberry, you say? Yeah. Ask me about screen size and loading time, seriously.)
Jay C
What Yellowdog said @ #13 —
Of course, I’d simply “reply” to him, but can’t; since I don’t have the “Reply” button, either
(FF 3.6.3 on WXP).
OTOH, both sets of buttons on the Comments box work!
debit
@Bruuuuce Okay. What cell phone platform out there is totally open?
Spike
I’m pretty sure I’m going to buy one (once they find their way up here to Canuckistan) for one purpose: in-flight entertainment. My rapidly-aging eyes make it hard to watch movies or play games on my iPhone without getting a headache, and the borderline-sadistic seat pitch in steerage makes it impossible to open a laptop unless I get lucky and score an exit row or an upgrade.
WereBear
I’ve been reading about it, and watched the segment on Rachel’s show where she was giddy with gadget glee. I know how she feels.
It’s like a bigger iPod touch, and I adore mine. To have a pocket size computer that lets me surf the web and read email and draft blogposts; it’s just wonderful. (For all the writers out there: Shapewriter. Dang.)
I’m used to being teased for being an Apple fanchild; so be it. I spent fifteen years supporting the Amiga; so I’m immune.
It’s simply that there are people who want the cheapest device that will get the job done; and there are people who want elegance and a “wow!” factor in their daily gadget lives. That’s why there’s an Apple; that’s why I hope there will always be an Apple.
To the people who don’t get it: you don’t get it.
I would think that would be obvious.
arguingwithsignposts
The JesusPad is not magical, despite apple’s advertising. It’s an oversized iPodTouch with 3G. There’s no camera, no Flash, no multitasking.
Not true. There were some attempts to sell legal downloads pre-iTunes, but they sucked. And most of them still suck (although emusic rocks).
dmsilev
I’m vaguely tempted by the iPad, but not enough to be down at the Michigan Avenue Apple store *right now* waiting in line for one. I figure I’ll wait a couple of months for the mania to die down and the 3G model to become available, and then head to the Apple Store and play with one of the things for a while, and try to make at least a somewhat informed decision on whether it’s worth it for me.
However, a couple of the apps I use on my iPod Touch have been updated to take advantage of the iPad’s big screen, and the screenshots are certainly tempting. Papers would be a nice thing to have professionally, and for timewasters, seeing the New York Times Crosswords app on the iPad is a big step up from the small screen (see the whole puzzle *and* more than one clue at a time!).
-dms
RSA
I think one of the main reasons people buy Blackberries is because of the mini-QWERTY keypad; soft keyboards just haven’t caught up in terms of typing speed. (Though new gesture-based systems are promising.)
I doubt I’ll get an iPad. I like the idea of it for reading ebooks, but there are lots of alternatives, and I already have too many laptops.
Bruuuuce
@debit: I haven’t yet got a phone with it, but Android, while it has an app store, doesn’t preclude you from installing apps not in the store. Moblin (Mobile Linux), while a minor player, is probably even more open. Windows Mobile (pfui) certainly doesn’t tell you that you MAY not install apps; it merely doesn’t work with some of them. And I have no direct experience with mobile Java or Maemo or the other OSes, but from what I know of them, their makers don’t limit what they can install.
The ONLY manufacturer, that I know of, that tries to tell me I can’t do anything I bloody well feel like with my purchased device, is Apple.
toujoursdan
I love my Blackberry Curve as a cell phone and for email. As far as I know, the iPhone doesn’t consolidate your personal and professional email accounts into one grand list that you can work through, like the Blackberry has done for years. I’ve also compared the sound quality between the iPhone and my Blackberry on the few occasions I get iPhone lust, and the Blackberry wins hands down. The iPhone is a great microcomputer but not so great as a cell phone. So I’ll get another Blackberry when this one dies.
That said, the GUI of the iPhone wins hands down. The web features and aps make iPhone very attractive. When I have been lost in New York and am trying to locate a restaurant, finding it on a Blackberry has been a frustrating and ultimately pointless experience. The iPhone is intuitive. The Blackberry is not.
I split the difference by owning a Blackberry for email/phone calls and an iPod Touch for entertainment and surfing.
I can’t figure out how to fit an iPad into this. It’s far too crippled to be much of a laptop and far too big to use as a media player.
I hope though, that Apple’s next iPod Touch release will have 3G capabilities like the iPad. My 1 Gen Touch is reaching the end of its life and I would like to make a jump to a 4Gen Touch that would let me surf anywhere.
Dannie22
I love my iPhone. I can wait in line at the grocery store and watch Al Jazeera or France24. Both of those apps were free. I like it because it small and I can do searches wherever I’m at.
J.W. Hamner
I definitely want a tablet for home use… I agree with those tech heads who breathlessly claim it to be the future of casual computing… but I’m not much of an Apple fan, and there is just no way I’m going to be an early adopter just to be pissed when they release a way better one in 6 months and slash the originals prices.
mr. whipple
@mr.whipple: It’s not about the Ipod, it’s about the mustard. By the way, are you mcnod?
mcnod?
And hey, I was kidding about the mustard.
Tattoosydney
@ werebear:
Downloaded. Bought. Dang indeed. Thanks.
WereBear
Just a note on Apple apps: a lurker asked about a password app, and I was in the middle of seing if I could get mine straightened out, so I didn’t reply then.
But if anyone is still in need of a recc, I now have the highest praise for Password Wallet. Easy to use, has a browser built in that lets you switch to Safari without losing the login, and has an accompanying PC or Mac computer program for synchronizing.
Had a bug where an upgrade wiped out my previous files, but the company responded to my email right away, gave me a laptop app that grabbed my backup off of iTunes, and I’m back in business. Can’t say enough nice things about the company, and their software.
Use it for free, upgrade if you like it.
Forty2
I’m considering one. I have a desktop iMac and a freebie ancient Powerbook G4 that barely works, so when I’m traveling the idea of a lightweight little appliance like an iPad is appealing: email, web, all those apps, movies, etc. I don’t need to haul around a heavy laptop for that. I have an iPhone (another freebie from a serial-gadgeteer friend) which is great as a phone and (very) lightweight email/etc. but for a lot of things the screen is too damned small.
But I’ll probably wait for the next version.
tripletee
Mine just showed up from UPS about 15 minutes ago. I’ll post some impressions later if I have time.
That used to be the case, but iTunes music has been DRM-free for at least a year, maybe two. As long as your player handles the AAC codec, you’re good to go.
debit
@Bruuuuce Okay, fair enough. Here’s my perspective: I went from writing my college papers on various Apple products (the II, the III, the IIe, the Macintosh) to IBM products. (I still remember my awe at my XT’s massive 40MB hard drive.) I went from DOS (still miss it) to Windows and have built and customized my own machines. I’ve modded my PS2, my PSP and have an R4 for my DS so I can store and play games the way I want to. I could jailbreak my iphone anytime I want, but the only reason I would is to switch providers when my contract expires, as is the case with most cell phones.
The reason I’m typing this message on a Macbook, instead of my other laptop, is that my Macbook works all the time and does what I want it to all the time. My iphone? It works all the time. I don’t need to tinker with them to make them work the way I want them to; they already do.
cleek
not everybody is excited.
some other guy
It is obvious. What’s not obvious yet is the ratio of get it : don’t get it among the general public.
I agree, but the relentless and ubiquitous hype is that the iPad is more than just an aesthetic enthusiast device, that it is, in fact, going to change the future of personal computing. Yeah, there are some folks who are always looking for an excuse to bash Apple and its customers, but I think a lot of the criticism of the iPad is due to the hype surrounding it instead.
Bruuuuce
@debit: I understand that, and appreciate it. You are clearly in Apple’s target market, which is fine. I’m not — I want things they don’t provide, which is why I noted the post I originally linked, since it makes why I’m not very explicit, better than I probably could.
Violet
I sure won’t buy one. Well, not now anyway. I’m never an early adopter of tech stuff. Too many bugs to work out. Second gen stuff is usually better, imho.
But then, despite working in the IT world, I am something of a Luddite when it comes to owning cutting-edge tech stuff myself. Vinyl records, anyone?
Nutella
@J.W. Hamner 44
Yep, Apple will roll out a new improved model in a few months, with the camera that they deliberately left out of this one, and all the fanboys will rush out and buy a second one. This is one reason why their profit is so high.
WereBear
And for those who watch Turner Classic Movies when they are not playing with their iPhone, the TCM app is well worth the 3 bucks.
Sentient Puddle
@Bruuuuce:
You must not know many electronics manufacturers then. For a long time, messing around with firmware on your own has been one of the fastest ways to void your warranty on something. Android is about the only exception I can think of myself (though I’m sure there’s plenty of Linux-based systems that I’m forgetting).
gwangung
Exactly. And here…size DOES matter. Seriously.
nutellaontoast
“They’re treating this device like the second coming.”
what the shit are you talking about? All the techies I know thing it’s the second coming of lunch. It’s the frickin’ noobs who think it’s gonna be a religious experience.
Xecky Gilchrist
iProduct summed it up for me years ago.
I think Apple does do interesting, pioneering work and I appreciate their bravery in floating devices that may flop (e.g. Lisa, Newton, and so on) but soonergrunt nailed it – smugness in the box. They’ve had the same smarminess going on since the 1970s, and I’ve always found it offputting, and there’s no doubt they’re right up there with Microsoft for vendor lock-in attempts. They’d never have gotten rid of iTunes DRM if they weren’t forced by market pressure.
Brian J
Perhaps it won’t own the market like the iPod does, but in my amateur opinion, I suspect it will drive what other companies do, much like the iPhone does. It’s also going to have an affect on the way that media companies present information, although in exactly what way is unclear.
I’d buy one if I had more money. In fact, I thought about moving down to a regular phone and getting an iPad instead, but that would mean I’d need to lug around two or three devices instead of one. That’s not a good deal. But if in a couple of months the price has dropped and the data package isn’t too outrageous, I might bite the bullet, depending on what my fiscal situation is.
Howard
It’s the exact opposite, in my experience. Some writers like it (Jesus Diaz at Gizmodo comes to mind), but in general, the techie response has been that it’s extremely underwhelming. The lack of technical capability really hurts it there. But at the same time, the tech crowd also seems to recognize that the iPad isn’t a device for them – it’s a device for everybody else.
Amy
Can you work on documents on an ipad? Can you load Word on it? Transfer documents from/to a flash drive?
Amanda in the South Bay
I’m simply too poor to be able to think about owning one; I hate to say that class privilege is rearing its ugly head, but geez is the iPad a luxury.
That said, if one of my ancient crappy computers at home (LINUX netbook, oldie PoweBook G4) ever goes on the fritz, it’d be tempting to pick one up, but maybe several months to a year later, not today.
scav
Violet @ 54
Funny how the knowledgeable, selective adoption of technology is the new Luddism, no? Oh, and I think wax cylinders get more style points now. Although if you have to specify RPM . . .
WereBear
@Tattoosydney
You’re more than welcome.
I’ve switched to the Atomik keyboard of late; while there is a learning curve, I’m getting faster and faster. It has far fewer typos, and I think my final speed will leave QWERTY in the dust.
tcolberg
Feh. After CES 2010 and the iPad announcement, I just went for the Lenovo S10-3t, their new tablet netbook. I’ve always been a desktop kind of computer user, so this is actually my first personal laptop.
It fulfills that blend of functionality I was looking for: very high portability and usability in a variety of environments and situations, but still being very capable of productivity. Further, I’ve always hated touchpads and the capacitive touchscreen is a really wonderful way to navigate around on a small computer. Sure, it could be a bit more powerful (I wish I could run more powerful games or had waited for a dual core processor so that the multitasking ran a bit more smoothly when I started running a lot of programs), but 95% of the time it does exactly what I want, which includes a lot of word processing.
gwangung
Amy:
Can work on documents, but not in word. Use iWorks and export. There are noises about specialty programs like Final Draft making iPad versions.
It’s definitely a luxury if you have an iPod/phone, laptop and desktop. But only two of them? Hm. Fits into a niche better, particularly if it’s just a desktop and a unsmartphone.
Bruuuuce
@Sentient Puddle: Conceded, most companies don’t like you monkeying with their really low-level programming. But most also don’t tell you what you can do on top of that. (I should also note that this is another reason I won’t buy a Kindle.)
pixelpusher
Apple is actually eating Nokia’s lunch.
Here’s the real kicker: share of app developers.The iPad already has a 22 percent share — behind the iPhone at 67%. Android? Just 10%, and the gap is growing. Why has Windows dominated Apple since the early days? More apps.
Hob
@toujoursdan: I don’t understand your point about email contacts– as far as I can tell, iPhone and Blackberry treat these in pretty much the same way– but otherwise I agree, it’s just a much much better interface design, and much better integrated with a desktop computer too. And given the relatively lousy quality of AT&T as a cellular network, I’m confused by mistermix’s assertion that people are still buying Blackberries with AT&T service; that sounds like a doubly masochistic thing to do.
HE Pennypacker, Wealthy Industrialist
My next phone will be an iPhone — the GPS on it is alone worth the price of admission, especially if you travel a lot.
That said, I’m in no hurry to buy an iPad. The concept is cool — I have a Kindle that only does only one thing and is monochromatic, and it’s STILL great for bringing a lot of books on trips. So a similar device, in color, that does more would be fantastic. But the price point is still too high.
My theory is that things don’t get widely adopted until they dip below $200.
Amanda in the South Bay
@scav
Actually, my impression of many tech workers themselves here in Silicon Valley is that many of them are very materialistic and competitive about getting the latest gadgets.
Ok, I’m incredibly bitter and have many axes to grind, but still…
Gromit
What would be the netbook/tablet analog to Blackberry in your comparison, mistermix? There isn’t any. With the iPhone, Apple came into a developed market and they made a huge dent in a very entrenched competitor’s market share (to say nothing of mindshare, where the iPhone is eating Blackberry’s lunch).
Netbooks have never sold well, and tablets even less so. This is practically virgin territory. The fact that Apple has both users and developers/content providers this excited about a product in this niche bodes very well for them. The positive early reviews even more so. Maybe someone will come out with a product to compete in a way that other MP3 players never could compete with the iPod. But the early MP3 player market in 2001 is a much better analogy than the smartphone market circa 2007.
As for missing features, I always find it funny when someone says something like “The JesusPad is not magical, despite apple’s advertising. It’s an oversized iPodTouch with 3G. There’s no camera, no Flash, no multitasking.”
Netbooks have all those things, as the critics keep reminding us. So why are their sales so anemic? You really want to chalk all this up to marketing, or mass delusion?
Just for the record, I have a desktop computer that I use for graphics work, an iPhone for mobile web browsing and communication, and have never found notebook computers practical for my lifestyle (too bulky, too awkward to pull out and use on the fly). The iPad should fit into my lifestyle for browsing the web and watching videos around the house (I use my iPhone for web browsing now more than my desktop computer, since don’t have to be tied to my desk), for light gaming, and for organizing photos (I’m very excited about the photos app). I won’t be going near an Apple store today, though, since I’ve pre-ordered a 3G model.
Emerald
Prediction: the Kindle will survive.
It’s simple. The Kindle isn’t backlit. The iPad is backlit. I can’t read for hours with a backlit screen.
Plus, Amazon has a Kindle device for the Mac. Just download it and you’ve got your crisp, colorful books right there. If they can get that onto the iPad (heh. Apple wouldn’t allow that) then you don’t need Apple books.
Having said that, I’ve been a devoted Maccie for 22 years. But it can’t replace my beloved Kindle.
snarkypsice
@Whackjob Militia Leader soonergrunt
Interesting point of view about everything else being overpriced. I don’t know what the price of my sanity is, but as someone who runs a small computer-based business, I can’t tell you how much my work life changed when I moved from PC to Mac. Every single thing you have to do is easier. I haven’t had a crash. I haven’t had one indecipherable error message. I haven’t had one iota of added stress on a busy day because of my computer. When I was on a PC, I had at least 2 of those every day.
I work faster now and I’m happier. The differences I see might not mean much to someone who doesn’t have to work at a computer all day, but to me they’re important. If Apple went out of business tomorrow, I think I might have to change my line of work!
Cacti
If the iPad were a basketball player, they’d call it a Tweener.
Too big to be a portable phone or music player, too small to be a proper computer.
Steeplejack
@HE Pennypacker #72:
Not to say that you shouldn’t get an iPhone, but I have GPS now on my not-very-smart-phone (LG enV2 with Verizon).
I agree that GPS on your phone is cool, almost indispensable. I got it bundled automatically as part of the plan I picked a couple of years ago and thought it would be kind of a fun gimmick, nothing more. But it has proved to be very valuable. Amazing how many times I have been a passenger with someone who doesn’t have GPS in their car and the trusty LG has guided us out of the wilderness. And it has proved to be more accurate and up to date than the GPS in my brother’s BMW. Heh.
I guess my point is that GPS is available on a lot of phones, so that shouldn’t be the only thing that drives you to an iPhone.
Gromit
Yeah, Apple would never allow that.
Jc
Speaking of Iphone, can we get an iPhone optimized site, for bj?
I actually think the ipad will be less successful than the iPhone, but I also think that is a HUGE success. Everyone needs a mobile phone.
If u get Mobile music, and apps, and the Internet, and it is the BEST experience for all of those, it’s a no brainer to get the best device that works the best, if u have the cash.
So, people do. And a lot of them.
And the iPhone transformed completely the market. The only thing missing is the google cloud services that apple Is stupidly keeping off the AppStore – googlevoice, google maps with voice, and some of the gee whiz integrated cloud features you get say on the nexus one.
And apple is in 2 1/2 years, the most profitable smartphone maker.
But the ipad?
THIS is a luxury device. I want one, but it is a luxury purpose. So I’ll wait awhile, as will a lot of others, I think. If when prices drop the ipad is the best quality pad around, I’ll get it. If there is a released googlepad that matches the normal great feel of apple products, and has an AppStore on par, I’ll get that.
Google and other competitors in the “pad” market, don’t have have make as many compromises with the carriers, so just like the google nexus phone, you can control the actual experience end to end.
WereBear
I don’t have any problem with a backlit screen. It has the added advantage of me being able to read in bed without turning on a light.
some other guy
On the contrary, netbooks sales have grown like crazy. They accounted for almost 20% of all portable PC shipments in 2009.
BruceJ
Hmm, you must not be reading the tech blogs I do, which are full of folks polishing their hippie-punching skills by deriding the “Apple fanbois” who are rushing out to buy this “overpriced toy”, followed by long screeds about how terrible the iPad is compared to the magnificent netbooks because it doesn’t run linux or something.
“No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.” Rob Malda, founder of Slashdot, on the introduction of the iPod….
I have an Acer One, running Linux. It’s a wonderful substitute for a netbook staggering under the burden of Windows, but it’s like a model T next to a BMW M5 compared to the iPad.
And the folks calling it the “jesus phone” are the same ones who think calling Mac users ‘ghey fanbois’ is the height of witty sophistication, for which Dorothy Parker should rise from her grave and give them all blowjobs or something.
“he said Jobs heh heh…heh heh heh…”
And I HAVE a mobile phone. It cost me $29. It makes the phone calls and all.
scav
@ Amanda in the South Bay
Never meant to imply that those in techdom are immune to hype / hyperbole or the lure of the fashionable trend. If anything, I’ve lived through more anathematizing heretic-burning schismfests between the followers of Macs/DOS/Linex vi/emacs/edlin C++/Basic/Fortran et cetera, et cetera, et cetera than I’ve witnessed elsewhere. May not know enough sports fans. A judicious adoption of technology is sometimes just “the stupid box is faster and smarter than I iz and not broken yet” rather than the eternal quest for the next great digital tailfin and armcandy.
Martin
Yeah, it used to be that claim was made for those devices was that you had to be able to replace the CPU when you bloody well felt like it, or recompile the kernel, and so on.
It’s been a moving target for the ‘it’s my device damnit’ crowd for 60 years and it’ll be a moving target for the next 60 years. My grandfather built his first color TV from schematics. Don’t see any cell phone manufacturers rushing to support that dying crowd – shipping a box of parts and a schematic. You want to install your own apps on the iPad and bypass the store? – just get the developer tools and you can do that. You can even use the undocumented APIs. It’s just manufactured bullshit because they think that Apple’s store is somehow less capitalistic than WalMart or NewEgg. Get over yourself.
How many people out there struggle with their PCs because the software update tools are designed around IT managers and not mom? Virus checkers, firewalls, all that are not things that normal people should have to deal with and yet they constantly do. If the ‘my device’ crowd is all that remains on Windows and linux, it’ll be a great day indeed.
That said, I’m pretty sure an iPad will become the kids car entertainment system. It’s cheaper than an aftermarket + installation, gives me a LARGE GPS in the same move (I don’t need one 24/7) and it can do books, go into the grocery store as a shopping list, and back into the house or wherever. With 12 hour battery life and being easy to charge from the cars built-in iPod dock connector, it should be perfect.
terry chay
I’d hazard to guess the iPad won’t do as well as the iPhone in market share. There are too many devices in the same area: kindle, netbooks, etc.
Having said that, apparently my iPad just arrived in the city this morning. Must be out for delivery. I also own a Kindle 2. As for netbooks, the sales are phenomenal, but the profits are dismal. In the end, they seem like three different products.
BTW, while it is true Nokia outsells Apple, it is not true that they outsell in the “smartphone” market. First of all the Symbian operating system is not exclusive to Nokia (SonyEricsson and others use the operating system), second, to call every mobile phone with a Symbian a “smart phone” is a bit of a stretch. Finally, I think more telling is the revenue numbers: in November 2009, Apple’s profit on the iPhone beat all Nokia phones combined.
Also, while I don’t think Apple owns the smartphone market (or ever will, for that matter), it is clear they are the market leader. It would be foolhardy to point at Blackberry’s diminishing marketshare when your eyes tell a different story—the most popular smartphones all have iPhone influences: from the touch screen to the app store to the full-featured web browser and the lawsuits regarding multi-touch are just beginning.
terry chay
BJ used to have the WPTouch theme/plugin that automatically made it iPhone friendly, but I think John Cole turned it off as part of his “site is always down” thing.
Really with the rate that BJ goes down, I really think John should consider contacting Ranaan at Automattic for WordPress VIP. I don’t know how much he’s paying for hosting+bandwidth+whatever or how much revenue he’s bringing in with the banner ads, but I’d bet pretty much, since it is only a single blog, that he’d do much better on VIP, than self-hosting at this point. They’ll even figure out which plugins are crashing the site.
Disclosure: I work on WordPress and WordPress.com (but not VIP).
Martin
Apple just destroys the market on revenues and profits. Someone put an analysis out about 6 months ago showing that 50% of all profits retained in both the cell phone and computer markets were going to Apple. The concern was basically that all other competitors were starving themselves to death – not investing sufficiently in R&D to compete over the long term, and relying too much on Microsoft to do that, who likely won’t remain on netbooks because the low price and margins make the Windows license one of the most expensive components, and that dumping Windows for Chrome OS might be a prudent move later this year.
Gromit
First quarter 2010 has been a different story, from what I’ve read. Do you have different info? (I read more tech sources than business sources, so I don’t claim to be an authority of any kind on this.)
licensed to kill time
The thing I always think about with touchscreen devices is how yucky the screen will get, what with the Mountain Dew residue and Cheeto dust and all.
some other guy
Yeah, growth has slowed to “only” +37% over Q1 2009.
Obviously, part of that drop in growth is due to consumers waiting for the iPad. Another part is that more laptop manufacturers are realizing there’s a market for small form factor machines and so they’re releasing 11.6″ and 12″ notebooks. If I were in the market for a new portable I’d be looking at one of those rather than a netbook.
In any case, it’s certainly not true that netbook sales are “anemic.”
some other guy
Err, that should read “+33%.”
HE Pennypacker, Wealthy Industrialist
You are of course absolutely right, Steeplejack.
The other factor in my decision is the iPhone’s ease-of-use and superior product design. I have a Blackberry right now (company phone) and I could pay for GPS for that, but in general I find using any of the PDA apps on the Blackberry aside from Outlook to be cumbersome, slow, unreliable, and hard to read. By contrast, my wife’s iPhone is just a joy to use.
daryljfontaine
I’m a late adopter to any new tech, and Murphy’s Law says that when I finally do acquire a device my day-to-day situation will have changed in a way that makes it less useful. It wasn’t until after I took a job that requires a driving commute that my wife got me an iPod for my birthday (iPod touch, which was nice). And my car stereo doesn’t have an AUX port to use it. This past Christmas I got an alarm clock I can plug it into; unless I am flying somewhere that is where it sees the most use.
It’ll be a long time before I feel the need to get a portable reader like the Kindle or a new media toy like the iPad, mostly due to money — but a not insignificant part of that decision will be fueled by how I already approach new technology.
D
Tazistan Jen
I suspect the iPad will be a near-necessity for one group – frequent business travelers. My husband is one of these, and a little device that will play movies for 12 hours without a recharge will be a Godsend when his flights are delayed or cancelled. And it will be darned nice even when everything goes smoothly. He has a Blackberry (we have to have Verizon) but email on an iPad will be nicer, and web surfing will be *much* nicer. He has a MacBook, but I doubt it will be a year before he has an iPad as well.
I have a Kindle, and I won’t replace it for reading books, because of the electronic ink. But for people who read magazines or newspapers instead, the iPad will come out ahead.
Steeplejack
@HE Pennypacker:
All righty, then. My concerns are met. I might get an iPhone myself next time around, if I can get it with Verizon.
Kirk Spencer
@66 Werebear, Before you get fully wedded to ATOMIK, take a quick look at QUOND. (See the bottom half — the “update”.)
Seebach
I will say one thing. Anyone who thinks this is a device anyone can use isn’t about to have to go in to do tech support for the next 8 hours.
Kirk Spencer
ok, let’s try this again.
@66 Werebear, before you fully commit to ATOMIK, take a look at QUONG. Bottom half of the linked page.
Kirk Spencer
Pardon, folks (and John), but I had a VERY short message disappear. A series of tests follow to see why.
Kirk Spencer
Test 1.
@66 Werebear, before you commit to ATOMIK you might try QUOND.
Testing at and number possible junk. Might also be two all-caps words, but I doubt it.
Chuck Butcher
Early adopting:
I bought my XT used but my 286 was before mass marketing, same 386 & 486 all three built for me. The 486 was capable and the buying curve slowed way down.
I was fairly early into the modern cell phone because I work construction, when cameras started being included I laughed. Owning a cruiser bike (Harley w/no bags, etc) made the camera function pretty reasonable. I don’t text, I don’t surf – I make phone calls and take the occassional picture. I have no use whatever for Iphones, Blackberries, or Ipads. I also could care less about Apple but I have yet to break a PC.
Kirk Spencer
Test 2
QUOND link. If this gets through, Werebear, then if you follow the link go to the bottom half for the relevant part.
Kirk Spencer
http://www.strout.net/info/ideas/hexinput.html
Something about that link (as a ‘link’) to QUOND caused wordpress to eat the comment.
and Werebear, QUOND is at the bottom half of that page.
Gromit
Fair enough, maybe that won’t be a trend.
burnspbesq
@Bruuuuuuce:
Whi I Won’t Buy An iPad and Think You Shouldn’t Either—
If Cory Doctorow doesn’t want an iPad, that’s fine. But when she starts preaching to me about why I shouldn’t buy one, I just have to say STFU. I am capable of making my own decisions on matters like this, and I have an iPad syncing right now.
burnspbesq
@spike:
This, at least 5x. Even in United Economy Plus, it’s a total crapshoot as to whether the person in front of you will make it impossible for you to work on a laptop – even a netbook. iPad plus wireless keyboard is gong to be a killer solution. Add the app PadNotes and a Pogo stylus and you don’t need a writing portfolio any more; you can save your notes as PDF files and email them to yourself.
WereBear
Thnx, Kirk Spencer, I’ll check that out.
bago
Ok, no mention of the courier?
ericblair
I suspect the iPad will be a near-necessity for one group – frequent business travelers.
Perhaps, but they’ll need to have laptops with them anyway and taking an iPad as well seems like a bit of overkill. I’m a little skeptical about how this will fit into most people’s lives, but will just sit back and see what happens.
I’ve heard a bunch of gurgling about how this will be great for medical applications: every doc will carry this around and will pull up charts and reports at a touch, yadda yadda. I can’t, unless the iPad is going to support strong smartcard/biometric authentication, volume encryption, corporate VPN support, interface with existing management suites, and a laundry list of regulatory and corporate requirements that Apple doesn’t seem to be too interested in. I could be wrong, but I just haven’t seen it. Given Apple’s lockdown of their boxes, it doesn’t look like they’re about to give that control over to corporate or government IT departments who are going to demand it.
Joel
Maybe someone’s already made this point, but the only reason Blackberry still dominates the North American market is because of Apple’s unholy exclusivity deal with AT&T.
If consumers were allowed to pair the iPhone to the service provider of their choice–as is taken for granted in other countries–it would probably win the global smart phone share.
I use a Motorola Droid. And I will wait for a less expensive more open source alternative to the iPad. But no one can deny that for now, Apple drives innovation and forces everyone else to catch up. That’s good for everyone, right?
Bruuuuce
@burnspbesq: I’m sure Cory Doctorow will be shocked to look at himself tonight and find his gender changed.
Moreover, if you’d actually read the article, you’d know that what he did was to clearly state why he is not the target audience for the iPad and, in the process, identify who the target audience is. He believes, as I do, that its problems outweigh its good points.
And, FWIW, he was a Mac user for many years, until several years ago, when he left them behind because actual ownership of his purchased devices and data were more important to him than the design and compatibility benefits Apple provided.
Brachiator
I don’t really care whether Apple owns the entire category. They’ve already changed the game by (possibly) making tablet devices relevant.
Trying to guess who will end up on top with respect to technological innovation is as much fun as doing March Madness brackets, and just as inaccurate. I remember years ago, someone sagely insisting that IBM would dominate the PC market because, after all, IBM was all wise and all powerful.
I don’t care what techies think about anything. They want to be the High Priests of the Church of Technology. I decline to worship.
The money quote of Doctorow’s irrelevancy is the last sentence of the article:
I don’t write code. I don’t care about writing code. I don’t care about the code writer’s perspective.
— Mine just showed up from UPS about 15 minutes ago. I’ll post some impressions later if I have time.
On the other hand, I am deeply curious about how people use devices like the iPad or the Kindle. Or even laptops (how many people use a laptop as their primary PC, fer example, when for years desktops were supposedly what was necessary and essential).
Any piece of technology that is worth a damn is quietly but definitively included in people’s lives, like a blind woman I saw on the bus using a smart phone (don’t know what brand). Before cellphones of any variety, she would have had to navigate through the city trying to find a pay phone. A portable device in which she could speak commands added tremendously to her ability to get through the day with less fuss and with fewer detours.
And so I look forward to a thread about how folks are using their iPads.
Forty2
“The ONLY manufacturer, that I know of, that tries to tell me I can’t do anything I bloody well feel like with my purchased device, is Apple.”
So, don’t buy Apple stuff. E.Z.
Isn’t capitalizm the shit?
Bruuuuce
@Forty2: Odd how somehow, I don’t.
Capitalism isn’t great, but it’s eight times as good as the next best thing.
Bill
I thought the same things that people have been commenting about concerning the iPad, and I thought that it is just a larger iPod or iPhone, so what. But then, how many of us have seen young people going to school while bent over carrying “book bags” that are killing their backs. Now, what if they can have all of their “text books” with color photos and videos on such a device as an iPad? Publishers of text books will either be developing iPad-compatible learning modules or they will be going broke while continue trying to foist out-of-date, heavy texts onto students, parents, etc. College students often spend more than the cost of an iPad on required textbooks for just one semester. For sure, this is a revolutionary concept, and the demise of printed media, such as newspapers and magazines that we are presently witnessing, will also happen to textbook publishers unless they are open to adapting to change.
grendelkhan
Enjoy your safety pencil and circle of paper, peasants.