Kos has a good piece about why Democrats should try to do immigration reform before the 2010 midterms. The gist is that Dems can’t do much worse than they did in 2008 among working class whites — the group that is most likely to be anti-immigration reform — in any case, but that it might be able to improve its standing among Latino voters (especially in terms of turn-out) if it passes immigration reform.
I think that may be true, but the real reason do it is long-term. Republicans won’t be so self-destructively xenophobic forever and if enough time goes by, we may end up with a bipartisan immigration reform bill or even a reform bill passed under a Republican president (don’t forget that this is what Rove wanted to do after the 2004 election). That could seriously blunt Democrats’ advantage among Latino voters. If Democrats can pass a good, comprehensive immigration reform bill while teatards are marching around with badly spelled anti-Latino signs and Tancredistas are attempting to mount filibusters, you’re looking at a serious long-term win for Democrats. Now is the perfect time for Democrats to do this.
When God sends you teahad, make teahad-ade.
Chyron HR
Well, look-ee here, boys. We gots ourselfs one of them there fancy-pants big-city op-toe-meests.
slag
That’s a Texas-sized “if”.
El Cid
If anyone thought the TeaTards had lost it over health care, just wait ’til immigration reform gets started.
I guess they’ll all be dressing up like Jim Bowie and screaming “Remember the Alamo” and alleging that Barack Obama was born in Michoacan.
Lisa K.
While I don’t disagree with that in theory, in practical terms we are ions away from a Republican party that is actually not too racist and not too dependent on the redneck vote to allow that to happen. Not in my lifetime, I expect.
Violet
Health care bill, now law, early in the year. Financial reform over the summer. Immigration reform in the fall. Makes perfect sense to me. Won’t be holding my breath waiting for the Dems to get it done.
Linda Featheringill
Now we are getting into x-layered chess. :-)
But you have one really good point: No matter what the Democrats do about an immigration bill, they will anger about a third of the population.
I think we should just ignore that portion of folks and let them scream. We should concentrate on doing what is right. And let the sequelae fall where they may.
And soon.
SpotWeld
The other thing is that proposed legislation can always be demonized much more effectivly than passed legislation.
Look at how all the nosie about health care reform as deminished significantly (though admittedly not totally) now that the bill has passed.
If a bill is still up in the air when midterms come around the right will be able to spin a huge number of lies (and very little pushback from commentators on the facts of the matter.)
If something is passes, lies will be spun and the panic drums pounded, but there will also be a long list of real Americans who can point out how things are now better than they were before.
Brien Jackson
I would say passing a bill is irrelevant. Hell, having Republicans hold a successful filibuster amongst the wave of racism that’s bound to pour out from the right-wing woulds probably be the best case scenario for Democrats
SpotWeld
@El Cid:
I see no evidence to suggest they wouldn’t be doing that anyway
Lisa K.
@Linda Featheringill:
Yes. Sucking up to them has thus far not worked, not produced the bipartisan fairy dust it was supposed to. So fuck ’em, which is what I have said all along.
mr. whipple
I haven’t read the Kos piece, but politically it seems very dangerous for the Dems to do this before the midterms at a time of 10% unemployment. Especially when the press is willing to play up the slightest stink the GOP makes into the Democrats being worse than Hitler.
Triassic Sands
Undoubtedly not, but can we secretly hope that they stick to it long enough to “no” themselves out of existence?
ozacrot
This. Immigration reform is something that we’re going to have to make happen at some point, just as with HCR. It’s really apparent that with a lot of Washington, the fact that it’s the right thing to do doesn’t really factor in. However, politically speaking I think it would still be a big win. I don’t know where it would result in a net gain or loss of votes this fall, (and I could see it hurting as many Dem reps as it helps) but Tea Partiers more often than not act like cavemen in defense of Amurrica (not to be confused with where we actually live.) I imagine that would have long-term effects on the composition of the current Republican coalition. White People Grievances may carry more weight than everybody else on the teevee, but in terms of actual votes the losses to the GOP would be much more significant long-term.
Rhoda
It’ll also motivate AA voters; because you can imagine the tea baggers response to Obama over this. This will also help push up young voters to go and take stand IMO if they’re asked.
This is a no brain good deal; the only people who would likely stand in the way are the Ben Nelsons and Blanche Lincolns of the world. They ought to be told to fuck off and go for the jugular on this issue; let the Republicans filibuster immigration reform.
MattR
@Lisa K.:
No thanks. I’ve seen them. But you can fuck them if you want to :)
Quicksand
But the Senate is tired and needs a nap!
DFS
I dunno if I have an opinion on the strategic wisdom of such a decision, but clearly it’s the best way to go as far as entertainment value is concerned. The spasms of cracker dipshit rage would make the health care fiasco seem like a mild sneeze.
Cerberus
@Chyron HR:
Actually, there’s been some rumblings that the “smarter” Republicans (oh stop you’re laughing, fine). I mean, the Money Republicans, are worrying about the shrinking dividends of their cozy brand and want to start reaching out to other groups who can reliably hate enough groups to keep the Religious Types and Open Bigots on board. The big two targets being floated around are rich white gay men (und only rich white gay men) and latinos.
So there’s this odd dance with the Karl Roves and the Big Money Wall Street Types trying to figure out how they can get something out there to maybe steal one of those two groups because they can see the writing on the wall regarding continuing to ride on only white men.
Thankfully for all of us, the Faustian bargain they struck to get their temporal victories in Nixon and Reagan are coming back to bite them on the ass.
It may have cost us our first-world status, but the long-term health of the country may be better for tricking the Randian psychos into getting into bed with the formerly Democratic Confederacy Forever psychos and the delusionally religious. It’s like we leeched all the poison into one political party to drag it down to Hell while we slowly all grew up into a functional country that deserved to be a first world nation.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
I think they should absolutely go for finance reform and hard. The problem is there are more than a few dems in both chambers who are joined at the hip with the finance industry. Especially in NE. They are not wholely owned subsidiaries of the Plutocrats, like the wingnuts, but enough to water down a good reform bill. Though I could end up being wrong about that, and hope I am.
Going after the banks and Wallstreet to seriously reign them in is all win for dems, and an antidote to the teatard crappola.
Immigration Reform is not as clear cut, as there are a lot of labor dems who are with the teatards, though not as much from shear xenophobia, but more about taking jobs here. But it would have the benefit of pulling away the white sheets to show the ugly racist underbelly of the GOP, and would likely energize latinos, especially in the SW and West.
I don’t think it would be a net loser for dems to go for immigration reform and force non tea bagger white sympathizers to fish or cut bait in their anxiety over the black dude in the WH, and quit telling pollsters the tea baggers have a point.
Mark S.
I still remember how ugly and racist talk radio got when it was Bush proposing immigration reform. Multiply that by a billion and that will be the response when Obama proposes basically the same thing.
I think it’s worth it. Which would you rather have, the fastest growing ethnic group or a bunch of old racist white guys? In ten years, Texas might be a blue state.
OT, but this is what a church does when it actually cares about the well being of its parishioners. Suck on it, Donohue.
Khârn the Betrayer
Your tactical analysis is correct, but tiring. May we pass something because it’s the right thing to do for once, please?
BFTBG/SFTST
Linda Featheringill
So – is there anything we can do to help this agenda along? I have already contacted just about EVERYBODY about financial reform and about the immigration reform. Anything else?
BombIranForChrist
Exactly. I say this is a good idea.
Republicans in moderate to liberal areas, like the current Guv of Virginia, are careful not to get too brainstem when running for office, because they know they’ll lose.
I think it’s time for all the people both Hamsher Left and Limbaugh Right who think that there really is no difference between the Republicans and the Democrats to see this brainstem on full display. It’s ugly.
Freak out the people in the suburbs and make Latinos not just not vote for you, but actually hate you. That’s the direction the Republicans need to be pushed.
koolfiltered
@21 Thank you for saying what I had in mind.
BTW-love your SN, 40k much?
Elizabelle
I honestly don’t know if it’s wise to attempt immigration reform during a jobless recovery.
Yes, immigration needs reforming. Am just not sure about the timing.
Immigration reform is probably more complicated than healthcare, in all honesty, and there is less of a consensus on much of it.
Will read the Kos item and see if it’s persuasive.
But I wonder if this might be a battle best deferred until after the midterms.
Financial regulatory reform is a lot on the plate already, plus setting up for green energy and technology.
(I see mr. whipple beat me to this comment.)
General Egali Tarian Stuck
This is a democracy and we don’t pass shit cause it’s right. We pass shit cause it’s less or more wrong.
jl
US nativism and xenophobia is nothing new. It failed 150 years ago, and it will fail now. Might as well defeat it now and get it over with. Before 2010 sounds good.
Know Nothing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_nothing_party
“The Know Nothing movement was a nativist American political movement of the 1840s and 1850s. It was empowered by popular fears that the country was being overwhelmed by German and Irish Catholic immigrants, who were often regarded as hostile to U.S. values and controlled by the Pope in Rome. … its efforts met with little success.”
In edit: forgot to mention that such an effort should be accompanied with an effort to correct the economic sh*t sandwich working and middle class ‘white folks’ have been forced to eat for the last 20 to 35 years. That would mean an effort to help all honest hard working productive people in the US, regardless of race or ethnicity.
Whether that can be done under current corporatist governance is questionable.
So, OK, others are right. It is a can of worms. I tend to be plunger Teddy Roosevelt type on domestic policy though. Bully Pulpit, stir up the masses. Would Obama the Centrist lead a counterattack in the class war that has been waged by the rich against all others? Take on immigration and economic injustic for working and middle class to fire up the electorate? One can dream.
Brachiator
The economy is in a shambles and no one has no idea what “comprehensive immigration reform” might be. This is a low priority issue. “It’s the economy, stupid” is still true and a lot of other stuff, including immigration reform, is not a priority.
Health care reform can be seen as having a huge impact on the economy. Financial regulation and job creation should be next on the list.
Don’t think so. If the economy doesn’t improve, if the average citizen’s life does not get better, the Democrats will rightly get thrown out on their asses.
This kind of thing also detracts from Obama’s significant accomplishments. For example, while I am happy that he made a bold move with respect to the US and Russia reducing their nuclear missles, it doesn’t put food on my table and, because the US and Russia are allies, this gesture is more symbolic than significant.
Elizabelle
Agree very much with Brachiator’s comment.
I’m not kidding about the “no consensus yet” on immigration reform.
Cannot think of another topic more likely to inflame the GOP base, which is already energized, according to our talented MSM.
David in NY
Remember, one problem with the health care bill was nobody knew really what would be in it. So it was hard to sell.
Well, multiply that by a gazillion and that’ll be immigration reform. Add that the words “immigration reform” mean vastly different things to different people, ranging from admitting all undocumented persons in the country to citizenship to, on the other hand, shooting them on sight.
I’d say wait’ll next year. Whoever said, “It’s the economy, stupid” was right.
danimal
Consensus on immigration:
1. Immigrants should “play by the rules” and respect the US immigration procedures instead of crashing the border.
2. Tight border security is important to facilitate #1.
3. Employers that hire undocumented immigrants should be punished. They exploit the undocs and lower wages for legal immigrants and citizens.
4. Undocumented immigrants in the US should go through a fair and controlled process to become legal immigrants. This may include penalties for entering the country illegally.
Most of these items are well supported by a plurality of Americans. The various special interests are angling for advantage on the immigration issue, but most Americans have a pretty clear idea of what needs to be done.
ronathan richardson
But Kos is being pretty naive about the way issues are presented to the public–we’ll have “firm and strong republicans wanting to protect our borders and protect our jobs” versus “elite wimpy racial experimenter democrats wanting to apologize to illegals and give them welfare”.
The numbers also worry me. Immigration liberalism is not a particularly exciting issue for more than 20% of the population, while immigration crackdowns are exciting for nearly all conservatives, most independents, and some democrats–40% or so of americans. note that those numbers are made up.
hidflect
I’m suffering from disconnect here. Why is it a bad idea to expel clearly illegal immigrants when there’s massive unemployment? They don’t face the structural costs of US citizens and so can undercut on pay beggaring local communities. Rather than try to address problems at home they ran off and just came for the cash by breaking the law. Yeah, THESE are the people you want, right?
Keith G
Haven’t read the thread yet. Will in a bit. How about the Dem just do/propose what needs to be done in the way it needs to be done. Do what’s right and let the chips fall where they will.
Immigration is one fucked up ball of poo and fixing correctly will probably piss off everyone. I don’t think we even know (or can agree about) what we want from an immigration policy let alone how to implement it. Everyone is gonna have to hear the word “NO” a few times, even the vaunted Hispanic someday voters.
Kevin
Wait…the party still fighting the civil war won’t be racist forever???? dude, they still have another 50 years of hating blacks before they even think about liking the Mexicans. Democrats can happily delay this for eons.
Allison W.
Harry Reid already stated that they will take up immigration reform once congress returns this week. I believe he was speaking at a fundraiser or something. I forget where I read it.
Brachiator
@hidflect:
You’re joking, right?
First of all, since the economy has tanked, illegal immigration has slowed and people have returned to their home countries in significant numbers.
Secondly, even though I don’t think that “immigration reform” is as hot an issue as Kos and others might think, the idea of rounding people up to expel them is totally, utterly, absolutely repulsive.
I’d swap them for you any day of the week.
PaulW
I seriously believe any immigration reform bill brought out by the Dems this year will send the teabaggers into massive conniptions and force their racists hides to get even more shrill and stupid than currently known.
The point of bringing this out now is to drive the Republicans into further heights of racial rage. It *will* push the Latino vote in this midterms over to the Democrats. Considering the turnout for immigration reform is in the hundreds of thousands (compared to the anti-health care turnout which were in the thousands), all it’s gonna need is the Republicans throwing a filibuster-primed Senatorial hissy fit to delay the reform well into November, during which all the Dems have to do is point and say “See? This is what you get with the GOP. Vote for us instead.”
this is a no-brainer move for Pelosi and Reid.
Brachiator
@PaulW:
Two words: Non Sense. The Democrats will win and stay in office by improving the state of the nation, not by indulging in the “my side/your side” game playing of true believers (and I’m a believer, but also a realist).
Also, Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc, and certainly not all Democratic or even potentially Democratic voters, nor with a universal idea of what immigration reform should look like.
Lastly, voters are more than Democrats and teabaggers. A citizen or legal resident who is out of a job or hanging on for dear life is looking for some help. And if you come along and say, “I’d like to help, but it’s more important to rile up some racists,” you are begging people to pull the lever for the GOP.
Mnemosyne
@hidflect:
I love how you completely remove employers — you know, the people actually committing a criminal act by hiring an illegal worker — from the equation. Apparently people come here illegally and force innocent companies to hire them without documentation at sub-minimum wages.
There’s a very easy way to stop the flow of illegal workers: if a company is found to be using any illegal workers, their CEO is jailed for 1 year. No exceptions. If you did that, the pool would dry up immediately because companies would stop hiring them. But, of course, doing that would punish the actual criminals in this scenario and we can’t have that happen because they’re all nice God-fearin’ Americans.
Fair Economist
@Elizabelle:
The centerpiece of all the Dem proposals I’ve seen is heavy sanctions on employers of illegal immigrants. I think that would play very well politically.
Elizabelle
Fair Econ: agreed.
And make it apply to those who hire their labor through contractors, which is how the employers skirt the issue now.
I think you could do a lot by tightening the laws governing no match social security numbers too.
The middle and working class have been hollowed out and seen their prospects decrease. Make them feel more secure about their future AND make our immigration policy more realistic.
We are a country of immigrants, and benefit by their labor. That said, we cannot absorb everyone who would like to come here. Sad fact.
Nick
I predict nothing but disaster and dissapointment for anyone involved in this idea.
After seeing how this country responded about giving people healthcare, how do you think this country is going to respond when the MSM goes forward with the “Democrats legalize illegal immigrants so they can take your jobs” meme at a time of high unemployment?!?!?
Oh goodie, we get the Latino vote excited, at the expense of everyone else.
Nick
@Fair Economist:
Unfortunately no one will know about it because the media will be busy firing up the teabaggers over “amnesty” for their enjoyment.
Nick
@PaulW:
And angry unemployment white (and black) Americans, and LEGAL Latinos, will jump into their arms.
I mean seriously, does anyone talk to ANYONE about this issue? I can’t believe such smart people think this would be beneficial to Democrats.
You would think by now we’d all realize how incredibly stupid and ignorant the American people are, but no, apparently not.
Seriously if we do this, it’ll do to the Democrats this year what gun control and NAFTA did to them in 1994.
Gian
this is a divisive issue, and one that benefits from using more than just race as the frame to view it. Class in the classic marxist sense matters, Caesar Chavez had UFW protestors at the border to try and deter the importation of strike breakers who would take jobs from UFW workers.
During the Bush admin, the number of enforcement actions against employers dropped to next to nothing, but deportations continued, post Katrina, one of the main bits of “help” offerred was to create exemptions to federal prevailing wage laws.
We really need to have serious enforcement focussed on the employers who exploit people who are in dire straits living in what’s a mess of a country just south of us, and policies to help that country employee more of it’s own people in living wage jobs.
to look at this through the race frame really doesn’t help solve anything, start arresting and fining large employers and things will improve for our labor market, get decent workplace safety and pay south of the border and the situation will improve.
what we are doing is rather awful, we allow employers to exploit them, don’t punish employers much if at all, and deport the workers. the hammer falls on the powerless.
Nick
@Gian: The problem is if we’re doing this to excite the latino base, punishing employers isn’t going to do it because all it would do is render the illegal immigrants unemployed, forcing them go back to their own countries poor, tearing families apart, or stay in America unemployed, at which point we still need to deal with them.
And if we don’t, it’ll only piss of Latinos more.
Gian
@Nick:
I suppose what I’m neglecting to write is that this is based on a presumption that Latino voters will vote based upon this issue in the way that the strategist expects.
certainly a bunch of newly minted citizens might have gratitude in years to come. But the support among citizens who can vote now and are of latino decent may not be as expected. This was Rove’s playbook, and I sniff a goodly portion of patronizing Latinos in it.
I can’t go back and read through all the stuff in the local papers in So Cal where I live and this is a hot issue – and leads to race baiting on the radio and at the ballot box – but some of the more responsible reporting suggests that a good portion the citizens who were born and raised here, or went through all the legal hoops but are still latinos would resent someone else getting the same thing they worked for (or were born into) by way of an act of congress.
If the plan is to simply agitate the racists on the right – you’ll see stuff like the GOP in OC cali has done, private security intimidating people at polling places, and I suppose making them come out of the woodwork and exposing them is good, but hasn’t the very existance of Obama done that?
Keith G
@Nick:
So?
To do this right, everyone is gonna get some tender spots poked. The win, the only win, is if we get a long term, fair and predictable process. But fair does not mean nice.
And I foresee a rational fix that will as a matter of course, piss off Latinos. They can join the club.
Nick
@Keith G:
So the point of Cole, Kos, Ezra and everyone else proposing it is that we do it in order to get Latinos to the polls in November.
Keith G
Which Latinos do we make happy? They are not of one mind. What is lost when one group is given more influence than the other? As one third generation Mexican American I work with told me, “My grandparents came here (Texas in the 50s) to escape that society and we sure don’t want it catching up with us now.
I’m not going to celebrate his humanity or his logic, but he does represent a group who is proud of his Mexican heritage and would be very happy if that heritage stayed where it began.
Still no matter what we do (to shift the focus a tad) up here, the success of our to be policy is somewhat held hostage to the benevolent nature the the Mexican government the economic elites who now call many of the shots there.
The wealthy of Mexico are under-taxed, the nation’s social infrastructure is contemptible. And why not? Most countries feel compelled to help the poor for public stability if for no other reason. The elites of Mexico have a northern pressure valve. Although their past “What me worry?” approach to narco-cartels is coming back to bite them. Even then, their troubles are washing north.
The Truffle
Can I ask a question: Why do people assume that the GOS is a site full of crazies? Is it just projection?
Cliff
Republicans won’t be so self-destructively xenophobic forever
That’s pretty fucking optimistic.
How long do you think it will take them to get over the urge to beat Mexicans with bats and chains?beat Mexicans with bats and chains?
http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/04/10/hate.crime.arrests
Nick
@The Truffle:
I don’t know who thinks that. GOS has its crazies, but the majority of the nutballs there left for FDL or OpenLeft.
I think on this, they’re fucking insane, but I guess that’s because they can’t see outside their own political fantasy. The theory that Democrats can’t possibly do worse with white working class voters is ridiculous. Even if we lost like 5% of them, would that make up for any rise in the Latino vote? Georgraphically, does it help? We hold most of the Latino districts anyway and will no matter who bad Democrats lose in November.
General Egali Tarian Stuck
@Nick:
Well, I basically agree with you, but only because timing is often everything in politics, and the timing to push for Immigration Reform is bad right now. Mostly due to the dismal jobs situation we currently have.
But I do not support the reason that it will excite the wingers any more than they already are, because they are currently set on rock and roll to vote in November. The problem is discouraging too many dems out of work with the principle of legalizing illegal workers already here. It won’t any real difference in practical terms, but the optics are self defeating for dems doing anything that appears to not be focusing on legal citizens in our country.
And we are also at a critical point on how to deal with the tea bag phenom, that, like it or not, has become a viable, albeit crazy, political player. Or, unless a genuine dem issue causes problems with dem voters, like pushing for Immigration Reform would imo, do right now, we should, or dems should not back one inch away from trying to pass those initiatives that we care about. And that goes double for those that Obama campaigned on, like HCR and Immigration Reform.
So far, despite rumors to the contrary, obama has done it right, though not without mistakes in logistics and tactics.
This has been dems big mistake for a couple of decades, or since Reagan, to shy away from what we believe in out of fear that the wingers are right, that this is a center right nation and dems going repub light when they have the reigns of power, or are trying to grab them.
It is a peculiarity of the independent swing voter in this country to not necessarily accept mean and crazy, like the wingers, but accept even less those who don’t stand up to it. That is why they put GWB back in office in 2004, imo, because the Kerry campaign didn’t fight back against the BS Swift Boaters, and other issues taking mushy stands or ignoring wingnut attacks.
When the economy improves, then the timing will be right to go to the mat on Immigration Reform, and not pay one whit to the seditious right. And if we have a civil war of sorts in this country, then so be it.
mclaren
You know, the funny thing about immigration policy is that Demo presidents have a much much tougher record on beefing up our border patrols and enforcing immigration laws than Republican presidents do.
Check the record. Clinton came in and doubled the border patrol. Bush 43 cut way way back on immigration enforcement. Under Bush, we moved to that failed “virtual border” that even the contractors now admit doesn’t work — it’s just a bunch of cameras on aerostats.
See “Virtual Fence on Arizona-Mexico Border Deemed a Failure”
Demos have a much stronger position here since Democratic presidents have been the only occupants of the White House to take immigration seriously over the last 30 years and really get tough enforcing the immigration laws.
Nick
@mclaren: That may be true, but beefing up border patrol won’t excite the Latino base, so its only going to make the precarious political situation worse.
Keith G
@Nick:
Again, not necessarily. From a Pew survey:
Yes there will be angry voters on all sides of the issue and I agree with with your over-all sentiment that doing this now for raw political advantage is silly. Still if Obama will craft a policy that is practical and fair (in general terms) even though the fringes will denounce him as evil, centrist legislation will emerge.
Based on the quote above, tighter borders is not a definite deal breaker for many Latinos. My only concerns about the timing is that there just is not enough. The Senate Judiciary Committee just got handed a rather large summer project as it is. And all sides are going to be stomping around demanding to be heard.