Rasmussen just excreted a poll showing that Ron Paul and Obama are neck-and-neck in a hypothetical matchup. How about a peek at the toplines:
1* Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Ron Paul?
10% Very favorable
29% Somewhat favorable
18% Somewhat unfavorable
12% Very unfavorable
32% Not sure
About 1/3 of the respondents don’t know what to think about Paul. Yet many of those probably picked between him and the President. Then we have this gem:
4* Does Ron Paul share the values of most Republican voters throughout the nation?
54% Not sure
Up next: Rasmussen reports on Americans’ favorite characters on TV shows they’ve never watched, with bonus research asking the question, “How’s the Food at that Restaurant Where You’ve Never Eaten?”.
For no good reason, Ron Paul and his supporters make me think about Arrested Development where Steve Holt would throw his arms above his head and yell his own name. “STEVE HOLT!!”
This whole Ron Paul thing is just such a ridiculous notion, but I can’t get enough. I pray he makes another go in 2012.
Being a Rasmussen poll that must mean Obama’s ahead by 30 points at least.
I liked the blimp. The whole idea of getting the rubes to pony up to rent a blimp that is. If I were running as a parody candidate for the sole purpose of making fun of people dumb enough to follow me, I would have followed the Ron Paul playbook.
That’s all well and good, but how does Obama poll against the McRib?
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@MikeJ: Time for the obligatory xkcd reference: http://xkcd.com/494/
@MikeJ: Whoa, not the Sarah Palin playbook? Bitch about the fat cats while you’re pulling down $16M per year.
You can only imagine the bitter disappointment of Ron Paul supporters when Rassmussen unveils their next poll showng that L Ron Hubbard edges Ron Paul 496% to 112%….
If my expensive U of Michigan education has taught me anything–the Stats classes and Comm classes I took–it’s that this Rasmussen Poll has very little internal validity and I would most likely use it in a paper to prove why public polling is flawed.
This poll is a joke. A bad joke. And Rasmussen’s polling procedures are even more of a joke.
In a hypothetical matchup between Barack Obama and Doodles MacPherson, MacPherson beat Obama by a ratio of three to one. The three happened to be Doodles, his wife, and his snot-nosed but nevertheless fetching daughter. Doodles’ son abstained.
Ron Paul — the cilantro of American politics.
Honestly, I don’t know what my opinion of Ron Paul is, whether it’s favorable or not. I think he’s unusually sincere for a Congressperson (which goes about umpteen-fold for a Republican Congressperson), but of course even so he’s less than consistent, and much of his sincerity is in service of some really misguided ideas. But some of it’s real, like his anti-war stance (and the associated and less attractive isolationism) are not obviously merely self-interested posturing. Of course, some of his prominent fellow-travelers, such as the guy who edited his newletter, aren’t merely nutballs but actual virulent racists. On the other hand, given that I’ve mostly been criticizing him, the things that I don’t like about him are mostly just him reflecting the beliefs (if not the interests) of his constituents, and so are hard to entirely blame on him.
Now, the idea of polling him against Obama is just nuts. Even aside from the lack of sufficient name recognition that the post highlights, Ron Paul’s prospects of attaining the Republican nomination are not all that much higher than mine are, and his prospects for breaking 2.5% as a third-party candidate aren’t so hot either.
Do the Paulbots still continously monitor Google for the latest mention of the target of their obsession? I think we’re about to find out.
I wonder how many Republicans know Ron Paul would cut defense spending, end those two little pesky exercises in democracy-builing and end foreign aid to Israel.
Oh…my own personal experiences on the internet lead me to conclude that Ron Paul’s “Love Revolution” is just as gimmicky as the “Soviet Endorsed Morality Campaign” I made up five minutes ago.
Most Ron Paul supporters I’ve come across on the ‘net are irrational and full of hate.
Paranoid, too. Scary stuff.
I don’t like that restaurant because I’ve heard it’s so popular nobody goes there anymore. The food is supposed to be pretty good, but they changed their menu from the other one that I never tried, and this one is not as good although I haven’t been there yet.
I heard it tastes of soap, but many folks say it’s great!
working a new B-J tradition, huh?
Oh please god please nominate Ron Paul! The result would make 1964 and 1972 look like nailbiters.
I doubt most of the country would be intrigued and want to subscribe to that newsletter.
Some people actually like cilantro, and despite it’s bad taste, cilantro won’t really hurt you.
@Warren Terra: Ron Paul would be a disaster as an actual elected politician. As a source of high comedy, however, he has few peers.
Um, he is an elected official (R-some number-TX).
We are all Paultards now.
Up next: Rasmussen reports on Americans’ favorite characters on TV shows they’ve never watched, with bonus research asking the question, “How’s the Food at that Restaurant Where You’ve Never Eaten?”
I think people are reading the poll wrong.
As someone who thinks Obama should be re-elected, it is alarming that an unknown entity is polling neck and neck with Obama.
The analogy seems to be not “hows the food where you haven’t eaten” but “which food do you prefer. The food where you eat every day or the place you’ve never eaten” — and if half the respondents prefer the food where they haven’t eaten, then they must think the food where they eat regularly is pretty shitty.
No I am no expert, and it’s possible that Ras has put their thumb on the scale in order to get some press.
But if the poll is legit, the takeaway seems to be that lots of people aren’t happy with Obama to the point that almost half are willing to support someone they don’t even know. It has a very “anyone but bush” feel, and if it’s legit, that is worrisome.
Granted, the pres. election is years away so this poll doesn’t really mean all that much regardless. But I dont think it’s something that should just be dismissed — assuming the poll was sound.
Nate calls bullshit on this poll, says that once you factor in house effects, the number is more like Obama +10. And that assumes that a likely voter model of an election 2.5 years from now will hold up. All Rasmussen is doing here is releasing something that will get him a Drudge headline. There’s no reason to take this poll seriously.
He is an elected politician. The citizens in his district like him and keep sending him back to Washington.
There’s little reason to take any poll released 2.5 years before an election seriously. If they were right, they either Hillary or Rudy would be President right now.
It’s disheartening to see so many of my generation (Millennials) think that Paul is an ok guy.
DEAR MY PEEPS, HE’S BATSHIT CRAZY, STOP LIKING HIM.
Rasmussen is a total douche bag and bottom feeder. His whole business model is tailoring polls to pander to the losing side in a political contest and giving false hope. When I saw the announcement saying Obama suddenly dropped I knew instinctively it was Rasmussen. He pull this shit on the Left in 2004 and now he is doing it to the Right.
NEVER believe Rasmussen.
@Violet: That too. We could fill a book with reasons why not to take this poll seriously.
@Mark S.: He represents Corpus Christi, performs some solid constituent services, and is otherwise a reliable NO vote on every piece of legislation anyone would care about.
I meant to say an elected official with any significant power. He doesn’t hold any committee chairmanships, for instance. As a governor or a Senator, I would hate to see him in action. As a President I don’t know what he would do.
This is not only “possible,” it’s the entire point.
A friend and I were musing earlier about how funny it would be if Paul got the GOP nomination in 2012. That’d be a hell of a turnaround: From “you’re too crazy to be allowed to speak at our convention” to “you are our standard-bearer!” in a mere four years.
To be fair, since there’s nothing preventing people who don’t know anything about Paul from voting in a hypothetical Paul-Obama contest, there’s nothing wrong with the poll. It’s not asking your opinion on Paul, but whethr you’d vote for him over someone else. In fact, if you subscribe to the notion that elections are mostly referendums on incumbents, there’s some added value to having a group of people who don’t know anything about the prospective challenger included, and seeing how they break down. It’s a good way of gauging general opinion about the incumbent.
That’s fucking paultarded!
What, no Assholes tag? Just look at that thread title!
Welcome to Idiot America.
OT, but I’ll provide a nice giggle for the afternoon:
I heard that restaurant where I don’t eat has rats, so I feel justified in not eating there. I don’t like that cartoon with those animals because, well, I guess it’s rats again. I don’t like Ron Paul because he’s a whackaloon, though, not because he’s infested with rats. I’m sure, like most congressmen, he’s relatively rat-free. Naming your kid Rand, though? That’s whacky.
He doesn’t represent Corpus Christi. That’s Solomon Ortiz. Ron Paul’s district is south of Houston, going along the coast to Rockport, just north of Corpus. The district is south of Houston, but doesn’t include the southern Houston suburbs. It starts south of those.
Ron Paul does excellent constituent services, so the people in his district like him.
If I seriously believed that President Ron Paul would immediately upon taking office exercise his Commander-in-Chief authority to order every American soldier home from Afghanistan and Iraq and slash our defense budget to the bone and make Ben Bernanke’s life a living hell, I would probably vote for him and then hope all his other craziness wouldn’t wreck the country before 2016. But he probably won’t do number 1, Congress won’t let him do number 2, and pissing off Helicopter Ben isn’t important enough to turn America over to a crazy old coot with racist friends.
That said, I’m considering become a faux-Paulite just because I live in a ruby-red state and no Democrat I support will ever win anyway so I might a well monkeywrench.
CNN poll yesterday showed Ron Paul in 6th place compared with the following repugs/also Obama vs them:
Indeed, but unfortunately (for your thesis) Rasmussen is less reliable than John’s safety with a hungry Tunch. They are notorious for releasing comically slanted polls that show enormous slant for right-wing positions and candidates, especially during the break.
They are openly hated by statisticians, because their polls are worthless, but they end up having to constantly explain why they are worthless to media idiots who should have learned by now to ignore everything Rasmussen puts out.
Yes, if it was from a reliable source, it theoretically could be worrying, but it’s not from a reliable source. If Rasmussen says dead heat, it’s an Obama blowout.
And that’s a worry for conservatives. Ron Paul has possibly the most positive response from people who don’t know him. He’s “libertarian” and argues a lot with conservatives and was against the war so everyone assumes he’s something akin to a moderate, but when anyone looks at his views up close, suddenly the giant jew-hating, black-hating, forced-birther, ideologue who wants to completely eliminate the federal government because he’s worried about Black helicopters emerges from the impish smile.
So if the “normal guy” candidate can only pull even in the massively skewed Rasmussen poll, the conservatives have a major problem.
Why would you say that? In just two years, John McCain has gone from “you are our standard-bearer” to “you are probably going to lose your Senate seat in the primary to Frankenstein’s monster.” I will be very surprised if John McCain plays any significant role at the 2012 Republican Convention.
If that was the purpose of the poll, they could’ve been a lot more efficient by asking “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Obama is doing?”
When you’re trying to present useful information, you don’t obfuscate it like this. Useful information in its raw form is clear and interesting enough. The fact that Rasmussen had to go this route to get interesting results says more about the methodology than the actual data.
The secret to his support in the Bay Area.
That’s it. That is why he reminds me of Dr. Oz.
@MikeJ: Just try and tell that to Skwisgaar.
Good point. Amazing that not even St. Sarah can save McCain from getting teabagged.
It’s not uncommon for people to be less than thrilled with the incumbent at this point in their term. Plus, happiness with Obama at this point is really about the economy and jobs, jobs, jobs. If the unemployment rate was half what it is now, his job approval would probably be higher and you’d see a difference in this poll.
But like I said above, polls like this are stupid. At this point in the previous election cycle, that would be April 2006, Obama was over a year away from even announcing his candidacy. Few even took him seriously as a potential candidate.
God, I am sooooo looking forward to the 2012 GOP primary. Between the eventual Palin meltdown, the Romney HCR smackdown, the tea party integration project, the Ron Paul brigades earning unexpected success and all the other predictable craziness, the 2012 race promises to be an amazing comedy routine. Sooner or later, a Robotic Romney clone (Thune?) will emerge, but the first couple of months could be classic.
Buying popcorn stock as I speak.
OT, but you can go vote for the cover of Glenn Beck’s new book. 3 is suitably ridiculous and should win. I don’t know what’s going on in 4; I think it’s a really hungover person seeing three Washington Monuments.
How is McCain’s race against Hayworth going? I thought McCain had pulled ahead, but I haven’t been paying attention.
I did hear a Limbaugh sub the week before Easter asking Arizonans to phone in with their thoughts. The sub wasn’t sure if they should vote for McCain or Hayworth because they need to consider the general election and he wasn’t sure Hayworth could win that.
@freelancer: Thank you, I was on a conference call and had too many windows open to go find that.
I would think that a poll showing that Obama is tied with someone whom over half of respondents admit knowing very little about is not good news for the POTUS.
@Mark S.: Those aren’t Washington Monuments. Those are three Communist penises raping the great big American sky.
@Violet: Last poll I heard about, McCain led by about 10 to 15 points. I don’t recall any trends either, but Hayworth certainly isn’t experiencing a Rubio-style explosion.
@Makewi: Well then you’ve got nothing to worry about in 2012. Hurray, Republican Resurgence! Permanent Majority baby! The liberal agenda has been rejected by the American people! Blah blah blah.
Don’t hurt yourself in the rush out the door to celebrate the clear and impending victory.
one of these days some pack-rat somewhere is going to croak, and enough pristine copies of what ron paul is about, the stuff scrubbed from the internet for his latest star turn, will be preserved in all their newsletter, pamphlet, and self-published glory.
i mean, i remember the guy from the late 80s, and the folks who liked him then, i was young idealistic and fearless, would let anyone speak til my buzz wore off, the millenial generation hopefully is just clueless. this late internet stardom has me wondering.
If I get anything from all of this hand wringing of Ron Paul on the right is that it drives them nuts.
Sure, he has his issues and while he makes sense on foreign policy and even the Fed, he gets looney with most everything else.
I always scratch my head at guys who call him libertarian when he’s SO against abortion and other things that libertarians should not be concerned with. If anybody embodied libertarianism in the last 30 years it was Goldwater (didn’t care about abortion, gays, religion and other things Repukes seem to concern themselves with).
Kos did a poll that has McCain up by 15. This is somewhat germane to the main discussion:
RedState doesn’t like that Rasmussen Obama/Paul poll either. Kinda funny since virtually every day they use a Ras poll to support their brainfart of the day calling Rasmussen the only honest poller. But they don’t like Paul at RS so the frontpager gently knocks Rasmussen for polling bias and is “left to wonder if it was written and paid for by supporters of the Texas Republican.” It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
Speaking of brainfarts, the Teabagger in Chief at RedState, Double E, has video loudly and proudly proclaiming they’ve long been teabaggers. Showing they’re not afraid to drop their bags on a picture of Pelosi or in an MSNBC cup. They got balls like that. Happy teabaggers they have always been, and happy teabaggers they will always be.
@PeakVT: they did back in ’07 (see comments–good times!).
Millenials only like his fancy words on foreign policy and not much else. Once they hear him wax nostalgically for the good old days and realize how wrong much of that is, they turn and run. It explains why so many “don’t know” when asked about him.
When at parties I get asked by righties who I voted for. I just lie and say I wrote in Ron Paul just to piss them off. MAN, it gets more hardcore reactions than saying Obama (who I really voted for).
Taking this poll at face value, it suggests that Paul is polling like Generic Republican, which isn’t excellent news for Obama, but is for John McCain. Given that Paul is an insane racist, though, his negatives have a lot of room to grow. Moreover, it’s not like Paul’s chances of winning the 2012 Republican presidential nomination are any better than Barry Goldwater’s.
Funny how the right, when in power, seems to say polls don’t matter but when they are lost or losing they are quick to use them.
Love me the hypocrites!
Ah, well never mind, then. McCain’s gonna get it done.
If he’s an insane racist (I’ve seen evidence but not enough to convict) then let’s HOPE he runs. He will slip up. He is way to plain spoken to not screw up and say something crazy.
Extended charset win
But polls don’t matter. Just repeating what you’ve preached in the past.
In November 2008, in the only poll that actually mattered, 45.8% of Americans voted Republican despite the fact that McCain was quite obviously a war-mongering, out-of-touch, economically illiterate and possibly senile nutjob with a ludicrously incompetent Christianist loon waiting in the wings to take over for him if he failed to live beyond the average age for an American male. Between racism, tribalism, an irrational fear of socialism, and a steady drumbeat of paranoia from Fox and other conservative sources about all Democrats being inherently treasonous, I expect at this point that around 45% of Americans will vote Republican over Obama even if the Republican nominee were a basset hound named Matilda.
In their defense, after 8 years of George Bush and over twenty years of observing the GOP up close and personal, I would probably vote for a convicted child molester before I ever voted for a Republican. At the very least, I would want some assurances that the Republican had not also molested children and was just more skillful at covering it up.
I’ve got nothing to worry about. We agree.
I would think so, too. But that’s assuming the poll is accurate, which is a big if.
Let’s face facts here. Polls DO NOT matter or else McCain should have won handily and beaten Obama.
Polls showed that Bush could lose re-election yet he won.
Polls show a lot of things but they are flawed animals. The reality is not one of the current crop of rightie POTUS nominees has a chance against Obama.
If this nuke thing works out +1
If the jobs start coming back (and all indications are they will to some extent) +1
The bank regulation is good for the country and if it passes +1
If Obama gets more pay back from those lent TARP funds +++1
So basically it’s too early to tell what is gonna happen but those on the right pointing at useless polls is not much different than when they were crying about the declining numbers their group saw in 2006. Things CAN turn on a dime but as long as Obama does positive things that can be used in his re-election campaign, he wins again.
I’m actually speaking to the OP’s take on this, that it is akin to reviewing a restaurant you’ve never been to. Because it’s really more like comparing one you’ve never been to with one you hate. Or more accurately, it could be akin to that. Which was my point.
Problem is, it’s just not going to be that easy. What the right needs to worry about is not going too far off to the far reaches and passing the Birches on their way to extemeland.
A majority of Americans elected Obama and it shows they can be pragmatic. Independents aren’t in love right now BUT if things improve (and they will) it’s almost a certainty the right will stay in the wilderness talking about secessions, revolutions and militias with their tea parties.
In the general election, maybe. Given all the Confederate nostalgia that’s been washing over the GOP lately, Paul would probably improve his standing in the party if he were more openly racist so long as he learned how to communicate in dog whistles. I wonder what Pat Buchanan thinks of Ron Paul.
I agree that polls are of limited usefulness. But if we are going to be talking about them at all….
@Mark S.: What the hell is the Statue of Liberty (?) holding in her left hand in #II, a rifle? A spear? WTF?
Fair enough but it was still worthy of a response.
But yet you would have us believe they are completely useless when things worked in your favor. Hmmm….not trying to pick a fight just stating the obvious.
Speaking of Pauls, Jim Bunning as endorsed Rand Paul.
Not sure that’s the kind of endorsement you want…
It’s funny because he actively appears on liberal shows pretty often. He’s doing a good job keeping that side of him from surfacing.
I think I’d like some proof of that if you don’t mind.
Oh, shit, I didn’t notice that. There are a lot of birds; maybe she’s hunting.
I’m not digging it up bud. Since you’ve pigeonholed me due to my statements (HCR anyone?) I can easily do the same thing and lump you in with your brethren. Not all of us are stereotypes and besides, I dug up tons of info to shoot you down in the past. It won’t happen anymore. If you say you didn’t, fine.
No harm, no foul, just having fun. Seriously though, see how it feels?
Excreted a poll! Hahahahahaha!
excreted. tee hee.
Apparently I’ve wounded you. If so, you have my apologies.
Would it be too weird to say this made me think of Mr. Rogers…your body’s fancy and so is mine….?
Eh? I thought so.
@Citizen_X: And why is she a Spartan or something in #3?
Excuse me, I mean #III?
And what is in the foreground of #I?
Each of these has its own special WTF aspect for me.
Paul called on Libertarians and Progressive to join forces on Civil Liberties and Warmongering.
Plenty of meat for the hippie punchers.
It was my understanding that these polls work the opposite way? The incumbent always looks worse against an unknown, because people don’t like politicians they know and assume Generic Face or Empty Space must be the reasonable and honest human being they’ve always hoped for? So if you pick someone like Paul who a huge portion of the electorate goes ‘Who?’ about, he’s going to do fairly well.
Haha, sarcasm…LOVE it.
Nah, no wounding. Just love shoving your face in the fact you were wrong about HCR even when the posts proved that I was right about the Hyde Amendment.
There, you asked for a face rubbing.
Hehe, now go back to Malkin’s site and tell them polls don’t matter like a good Republican foot soldier ;)
@Makewi: Yeah, that looks really bad, doesn’t it?
@Randy P: I thought in #III it was Tecumseh or somebody else native.
I think they’re all supposed to be in alternate-history People’s Soc.i.a.l.ist Republic of America or something.
Anyone notice that Rasmussen is now breaking voters down into “Mainstream Voters” (i.e., conservatives) and “Elites” (i.e., liberals). This guy is a piece of work.
@The Populist: @Makewi:
ETA: I do not believe that the composer was addressing this song to our current president.
Polls show that significant percentages of the electorate believe that President Obama is or might be the Antichrist.
We either need better polling, or a better electorate.
The problem with this poll is that it uses likely voter model that may not be representative of 2012. It may also oversample Republicans.
1. I believe Ron Paul is now almost 75 years old, so in3 years he would be by far the oldest first term president.
2. Ron Paul is also an MD. I believe there have been various thread s about wackaloon MD’s. This is another one.
“Think smaller. More legs.”
I think that I participated in this Rasmussen poll — it was specifically about Obama and Paul, and I recognize these questions. It is the first time that I have ever been called for a political poll like this, so I was interested in the sort of questions they would ask.
It wasn’t what I expected. For the most part, I thought that the questions were too vague to be meaningful. For example, on the question about Ron Paul’s favorability, I said “somewhat favorable”. I like the fact he does not tow the Republican party line, and he often steers the political discussion in interesting directions. I would never consider voting for him. He is interesting to me as a political voice, rather than as a viable candidate. The questions were not deep enough to detect that sort of difference.
Though I identified myself as a liberal Democrat, they asked if I thought that Paul represented most Republican voters throughout the nation. I doubt that I am qualified to make that judgement. I said “no” based on what I have read.
I don’t think the questions that I was asked would enable anyone to accurately characterize an Obama vs. Paul contest. I know little of polling science, but I was not impressed.