We’re seeing a lot of this (no links, because the articles are all stupid): polls show that a majority of Americans like the Arizona immigration law, therefore politicians would be smart to support it.
This is nonsense. Things just don’t work that way. For example, polls consistently show support for more gun control, but pushing for more gun control is terrible politically in most of the country. Polls typically show support for reproductive rights, but so-called pro-life voters are substantially more likely to base their vote on that issue alone.
You tell me: who is more likely to be a one issue voter on the Arizona immigration law, a Glenn Beck listener living in white suburb or a Latino American who was just forced to show his papers to the police?
cmorenc
The GOP is about to get a multi-decade “immersion” course in changing Latino voter demographics in many key states across the US, as they progressively become an increasingly large voter block. The GOP still has not successfully shaken the aftershocks from Pete Wilson’s campaigns over twenty years ago, whereby a formerly competitive state became overwhelmingly democratic at the federal level.
stevie314159
And I’ll bet you that the second the Glenn Beck listener with brown hair and a slight tan gets pulled over and asked to show his papers, he’ll poll differently.
Mnemosyne
Not only that, but I think the people who are in favor of the law somehow think that “only” illegal immigrants will be pulled over. The cops in Arizona will never pull over, say, an American citizen who doesn’t “look right” to them or a Brazilian tourist who stepped out without his passport, because the cops have a magical illegal immigrant detector that means they will never, ever make a mistake.
flukebucket
I would love for Americans to watch this video and then be polled as to whether or not they support the war on drugs.
The country pisses its pants due to a couple of propane tanks and a handful of firecrackers while this shit goes on amongst us every single day.
It is inexcusable and something is going to have to be done about it.
Zifnab
Depends. How good are you at demagoguery?
Abortion is the classic example. Take a bunch of post-menopausal church ladies with too much time and money, and feed them a bunch of horse shit about how the sweet baby Jesus is murdered in the womb by satanic cults beneath the floor boards of ever Planned Parenthood.
There’s absolutely no reason anybody but 20-something sexually active female college students and career-minded women should give half a fuck about abortion. And yet you’ve got legions of conservatives who will hinge entire elections on the issue.
How the fuck does that make sense?
Turn to Arizona, John McCain could very well lose his Senate seat because he didn’t bash Latinos enough for the tastes of whatever KKK-equivalent they’ve got running in that state.
Ed Drone
Polling is as good as the questions asked, as Rasmussen consistently shows. And push-polling can skew nearly any group’s responses.
Example:
Do you support the ability of law officers to demand citizenship documents from you if they encounter you in public?
Vs.
Do you support Arizona’s new law, whereby law officers can demand citizenship papers from suspected illegal immigrants?
Which version gets more support for the AZ law? If you make the law apply only to the “others” among us, you’ll get more support for it than if you show that the respondent could be affected by the law him/herself.
Ed
bago
Gun control is SO ’90’s. Teabaggng reparations are the new hotness.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/05/on-teabagging.html
Adam Collyer
Polling the support of a law, especially this early, is patently ridiculous. In the first place, the vast majority of voters have no idea what it means. They hear “control illegal immigration,” don’t really know the substance of the bill, and aren’t paying attention. Controlling illegal immigration is a good thing, ergo, this bill is a good thing.
Secondly, “most Americans” don’t matter. They are completely unaffected by a state law as long as they don’t live in their state. Frankly, I’m not sure why any politician would truly pay attention to national polls. All politics is still local, after all.
This issue has patently offended the giant Latino voting block. Good luck trying to stabilize that. All news is good news for the GOP, I guess….
danimal
The AZ immigration law will not draw independents over to the GOP side in any significant numbers; it will drive a growing Hispanic population over to the Dems in large numbers.
The AZ legislature forgot the golden rule of GOP politics: pass only symbolic laws on social issues. Nibble around the edges to keep the base agitated, but don’t make sweeping changes that awaken the liberal majority. See: debate, abortion.
Ed Drone
@Adam Collyer:
Fixed
Ed
Athenae
You tell me: who is more likely to be a one issue voter on the Arizona immigration law, a Glenn Beck listener living in white suburb or a Latino American who was just forced to show his papers to the police?
The real question is who is more likely to turn out to vote. Voter mobilization being equal among opponents as well as proponents of this law, I’d be inclined to say the latter, but bored angry fuckers not affected by the punitive laws they champion tend to show up by the boatload at the polls year after year.
And you know, we really do need to get away from this thing where it’s politically admirable to support something repulsive because a lot of other people like it. Sure, lots of white assholes everywhere think harassing anybody who looks Mexican is awesome.
A) We’re surprised by this?
B ) SO FUCKING WHAT?
I mean, seriously, has the concept of right and wrong and the rule of law gone so completely out the window as to … you know what? Forget it. It’s too easy. I’m gonna go pour myself some scotch now, because it’s almost 11:30 a.m. here and I already want to declare this day over and start again after killing it with fire.
A.
RSA
I started out being concerned about the new Arizona law, but then a whole lot of white people told me there was nothing to worry about, so I’m okay with it now.
de stijl
Thankfully, direct democracy is practiced infrequently outside of California.
Cuz when it happens the ugly side of America’s id usually comes to play.
cmorenc
I just returned from ten days abroad (Copenhagen and Amsterdam) and encountered repeated reminders in otherwise friendly conversations with locals about just how truly terrible a hit the Arizona matter is inflicting on Europeans’ image of the USA. The natives who spoke to me about this issue were mostly not those strongly predisposed against the US anyway, but rather folks who had (or had regained) a mostly positive image of the US post-Obama, and would still like to come visit America. Since most of them were of obviously Nordic background, neither were they the sort who were concerned about any personal risk from the racism the Arizona law reflects on America.
Zam
And never mind anything like the tyranny of the majority. Just because 60% of people hate the other 40 doesn’t mean they get to treat them like shit from a legal perspective.
Osprey
Of course they like it-as with most Americans, they never read into anything, and their sources of news never go into the boring details. Most of the regular news sources probably went with “Arizona passed an aggressive immigration reform law that will help them deal with the flood of illegals, drugs, and crime.”
The best thing that’s happening is for sports teams OUTSIDE of Arizona to start making waves about it. It’s the only feasible method that will get the average rube to maybe make an effort to find out why a sports person/team is interrupting their ‘Tiger Woods had a shitty golf day but didn’t fuck any white women’ news cycle.
eemom
@Zifnab:
OT, of course……but damn those are some sweet-sounding words.
Michael
@stevie314159:
He’ll still blame it on the existence of Mexicans.
de stijl
@Osprey:
If a few Cactus League teams start looking at Florida for spring training.
Russell Pearce represents Mesa. Guess where the Cubs play their spring games?
Ann B. Nonymous
@Zifnab:
If I remember correctly, the poster known as “Church Lady” here is 51 or so.
de stijl
@eemom:
I feel you, but from McCain to JD Wentworth, Hayworth whatever? Talk about “out the frying pan, into the fire!”
Comrade Dread
I’m pretty sure I could get a majority to support the proposition that taxes should be increased back to 90% on the wealthy if it meant the rest of us would get that money sent to them along with kittens and rainbow crapping flying unicorns.
And the next day I can tell everyone that a majority of Americans support Soshalism, but so f***ing what?
ellaesther
Not to mention that I would rather the laws of this nation be based more in the Constitution than in the gut responses of people on the phone with polling agencies.
Ash Can
@Osprey:
I don’t know about “outside” — as far as I’m concerned, the Phoenix Suns have trumped any and all non-AZ teams in the awesome department so far.
Tazistan Jen
@de stijl:
Ha. Colorado would like to speak with you about that.
– The amendment that tried to take away the rights of gays to petition for redress of grievances (happily unconstitutional)
– TABOR, wherein every tax increase has to be approved by voters, and when revenue goes down in a recession it can’t go back up again after (the ratchet effect)
– carefully considered coordinated amendments requiring spending in areas such as education and roads, aka unfunded mandates by the state on the state.
Comrade Luke
We’re seeing a lot of this (no links, because the articles are all stupid): polls show that a majority of Americans like segregation, therefore politicians would be smart to support it.
I can’t believe I even have to say this, but wtf does polling have to do with this? Will anyone ever do the right thing because it’s…you know, the right thing, again?
4jkb4ia
BREAKING: wsj.com and um, Politico report that Obey to retire.
Zifnab
@de stijl: Nah. He’s not going to have the beltway insider credentials that McCain had. He’s not going to have the seniority. And he’s going to be riding the bull of public opinion. If he spends his six years in office actively pissing off the Arizona Hispanic community, I can’t see that being a bad thing at all.
toujoursdan
I always direct people to the State Department’s book “Principles of Democracy” which is supposed to educate people in totalitarian and developing countries on how it works.
Unfortunately many Americans need that education too:
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
You know who really likes the new AZ law? The Utah Tourism Council. They’ve been running saturation advertising on MSNBC ever since the controversy started. I’m sure that’s purely a coincidence.
Stooleo
Do Beck listeners also watch basketball? I predict a boycott.
BruinKid
The problem with the examples you gave is that it always veers in favor of the right-wing position, and not the left-wing position. So yeah, pushing for gun control doesn’t work because it’s considered a left-wing position, and OMG Obama’s trying to take away your guns!!! And on the abortion issue, again, you have the national mood, but the electorate tilts in favor of the right-wing position of big government lording over women’s bodies.
As for immigration, the polls ALREADY show the public in favor of a right-wing position (they want “reform”, but are OK with this law at the same time). Once Rush and Fox News start race-baiting Latinos even more, watch support for WHATEVER immigration reform bill Congress is working on to plummet, just like on health care. Remember, PPP showed that after Brewer signed the bill, while her support among Latinos absolutely cratered, she went from +2 among whites to a whopping +15 among whites, and so in the toplines, she GAINED ground on Terry Goddard (D).
While we can solidify Latino support of the Democratic Party, there’s still, well, too many white people in this country. Long term, yes, the GOP is destroying themselves. But short term? This November? It’ll probably work.
Remember, Pete Wilson WON re-election as Governor of California by vigorously campaigning for the unconstitutional Prop. 187 back in 1994. And he won by almost 15 points over Kathleen Brown (Jerry’s sister) when he had been considered vulnerable, while Prop. 187 passed with 59% of the vote. Latinos knew full well what that proposition meant for them, but they didn’t seem to mobilize in any big hurry to actually make a difference in the election that mattered. Only later did they gradually join.
So this bodes well for Democrats in 2012 and beyond. But for 2010? I don’t think there’s enough time. And like I said at DailyKos:
(OK, someone explain again to me, how do you get more than one paragraph into a block quote without everything after the first one getting cut out of the block?)
El Cid
Democrats should make sure and support this, because this way maybe Republicans and Republican-voting independents will finally like them, really really like them.
de stijl
@Tazistan Jen:
Yeah, I know that lots of other states have started sloshing around in the pigshit of popular referenda. Thankfully, not to the extent that California has sloshed.
I thought about going to Thesaurus.com for a more specific word than “infrequently” but I was in a Golbergian mood. How about ‘relatively infrequently in comparison to California?”
Omnes Omnibus
@4jkb4ia: That’s really too bad.
Adam Collyer
@Ed Drone:
Touche. As far as I am from Arizona, this law generally effects very few people in this part of the country.
I still find the law offensive. But I wouldn’t expect local Arizona legislators to care much about what I think. That’s why if you even put any stock in politicking vis-a-vis polls, “national” polls are fundamentally useless.
But maybe we should just think about doing the right thing and selling it properly?
Randy P
@cmorenc: Well, to be fair, isn’t there a lot of ugly anti-immigrant rhetoric in Europe too? The Turks in Germany, the Pakistanis in England, and everybody hates the Gypsies, right?
Bad Horse's Filly
OT: It’s afternoon and our esteemed host has not shown up. Anyone check his roof lately? (Ducks, runs)
R-Jud
@Randy P:
Lately, I mostly hear complaints about Polish plumbers and asylum seekers from Africa.
WereBear
We’re still in the infancy of sensory media, like television. So most people who consume it are still not used to doing so critically.
Remember how old movies (and those who reference it, like Indiana Jones movies,) had the little dotted line and the airplane cutout following it? They had to do it that way, or people wouldn’t “get” that the hero had gone to Paris, even if the next cut was him wearing a beret and eating a croissant in front of the Eiffel Tower.
Now, it’s a given, and you don’t even need the Eiffel Tower.
Television news is the same way. The people who suck up Faux News with a straw are overwhelmingly people who sat in front of Walter Cronkite and believed every word he said. You could do that with Unka Walter. Not now.
The younger generations not only know how special effects work, they’ve probably done some on their home computers. They are not going to uncritically consume something they’ve seen “with their own eyes,” because they know how the eyes can be fooled.
Maude
@Randy P:
Yeah, but Europeans say that’s different.
It’s the same everywhere.
Martian Buddy
Speaking of polls, that 27% number turned up again in a WaPo/ABC poll:
2% of the population and they get covered like they’re a massive populist uprising. Unreal.
licensed to kill time
@BruinKid:
Gunner Billy K
Not to mention the fact that most folks don’t know what’s actually in the law. I was shocked at the tripe I heard from my local radio guys this morning. Not. A. Clue.
Ash Can
@Bad Horse’s Filly: (Envisions Tunch kicking back on the sofa, licking his chops and letting out a satisfied belch.)
Fergus Wooster
@flukebucket:
I watched it at Sully’s blog. I don’t have words. The man opened the door, and the officers shoot both dogs for no goddamned reason at all, and then charge the parents for child endangerment.
The sound of the dogs squealing will keep me up tonight. Awful stuff, and maddening. Just keep repeating: we live in a free country.
Nick
Judging by history…the Glenn Beck listener.
flukebucket
@Fergus Wooster:
It was the screaming dogs and the reaction of the man when he realized that his dogs had been shot that really made my skin crawl. And that poor 7 year old child being led through the house. I just can’t get it off of my mind.
This shit should not be happening in this country. It is going to have to be stopped but I just don’t know how it can be stopped at this point.
To be honest I almost wish that I had not watched it now.
I don’t see how the guys that do that for a living sleep at night.
Rosalita
@ellaesther:
Not to mention who they are actually reaching when they call? Really, how much of a cross section of the population is willing to chat with (or have time for) a pollster? Older white people maybe?
schrodinger's cat
@Bad Horse’s Filly:
I had a human, but I eated him, he was nootrishus and delishus.
Tunch
Elie
I find all this exagerrated bull about “illegals” so interesting since so many states have agricultural economies that absolutely require immigrant labor…
I doubt very much that states like say, WA would be happy if suddenly they did not have access to the Mexican labor that picks their berries and tends the thousands of cows in the state dairy business… hundreds of millions of dollars of sales…WA is the leading producer of raspberry juice in the country! That is just WA…
I won’t even mention child care and house care assistants. My boss couldnt work without her loyal, dependable and highly competent child care helper…
Arizona — don’t know what is happening there and don’t know the realities of their economy, but I know the reality of many other states and the reality of a population that is more and more diverse and latino. They are so off and crazy to pursue this now…I have no belief that “most” people actually hold to this — they know better…
David in NY
@licensed to kill time: “You can also put two underscores directly above a blockquote to keep it from going bold.”
Thank you.
Sentient Puddle
@Ash Can:
Give some credit to the Spurs. They liked this idea and wanted to go along with it as well, but they just can’t get new jerseys in time.
DonBelacquaDelPurgatorio
@BruinKid:
You are pretty much the only person here who gets this.
The math professor from New York has about as much idea as the man in the moon what is going on out here in the West, and here in AZ. Politics abhors a vacuum, and right now there is a shocking and embarrassing vacuum of policy advancement and leadership around immigration and border control issues. McCain and his friends are riding a wave of fear and anger over the complete lack of courage shown in Washington DC over these things for years now. Dems on a national level have completely mishandled this fumble recovery, their only apparent idea now a stupid boycott that will mainly injure the job fortunes of low end workers … mostly Hispanic … who will be the first to feel the sting of any boycott successes.
Dems’ chances here depend entirely on Hispanic voter turnout, at this point, and unfortunately the right is ginning this up very effectively for GOTV on their own side. These tv ads perfectly capture the mood of the moment. McCain appears to be opening his lead against Hayworth with this strategy. Even if Hayworth succeeds, our prize is a GOP candidate worse than McCain.
Hispanic voters must, repeat must, go to the polls in November in solidarity against these assholes or we are screwed and hard won Dem gains in this state are in the toilet. It wouldn’t hurt if Dems on a national level would show some goddam guts on this issue and do something useful instead of foolishly thinking that they can act as if this is about Arizona, and stick their heads in the sand.
And forget our Mormonized legislature doing anything responsible in the forseeable future.
licensed to kill time
@David in NY:
You’re welcome. I wish everybody would read that and apply it, because it makes reading blockquotes ever so much nicer when they are not screaming at you! ;-)
Fergus Wooster
@flukebucket: I wish I hadn’t watched it as well. The breakdown of the man when he realizes what they did to his dogs, contrasted with the machismo and cool of the SWAT officers as they read him his rights. As if they hadn’t just established that he doesn’t have any.
Nazis. The lot of them.
Ecks
@BruinKid:
Put “& nbsp ;” between your paragraphs, except without the quote marks and spaces. That’s code for a space (nbsp = non-breaking space). Then wordpress will think that the line is not empty, and mess with your blockquoting.
sherifffruitfly
I wonder why those polls don’t break down support by race? Seems to me that would be a relevant bit of information.
Chuck
I wish WP’s markup parser weren’t such utter absolute garbage. Seriously, even bbcode seems to do a better job these days.
Mark S.
@DonBelacquaDelPurgatorio:
Here’s how NOT to do that: Propose a Republican bill that no Republicans will support and will, at best, receive lukewarm support from Latinos and Democrats. This is triangulation we can believe in!
flukebucket
Exactly. They knocked his fuckin’ door open. Chased down his dogs and killed them. Had the guy face down on the floor and then made a big production out of reading him his rights.
It’s fucked up. There is no other way to look at it.
All the helmets needed were some decals.
DonBelacquaDelPurgatorio
@Mark S.:
This piece from the Douglas, AZ paper, which sits right smack in the hottest of the hot zones along the border, captures the mood down there.
And the McCain-Kyl “plan” for the border opportunistically grabs that mood and runs with it. Note that the plan doesn’t mention SB1070 or any of its draconian provisions. It’s all focussed on a border crackdown and making the Feds pay for their lack of action.
Remember that the hated law only has to serve as a worm-can opener. That law never has to go into effect in order to stir up the politics, which is what the right wants …. they calculate that if they pick a fight, and the Dems choke, which is what they appear to be doing right now, then they, the Republicans, win. That is their calculation and nobody out here or in the insane tv studios in NYC seems to have an idea how to respond other than “bad bill, bad bill!” Dems need to step up to the microphones and speak directly to the hispanic voter: This is our plan for you, this is how we work together to solve these problems the right way for everybody. I am glad that those citizens are demonstrating, but if that’s all they do, then the bad guys win.
Mnemosyne
@BruinKid:
The other thing that Democrats need to do is to be careful to frame this as a problem for all immigrants, not just Latino ones. There are people in Chicago who you can get all worked up about “illegal immigration” but don’t stop to think that Cousin Stanislaw is going to be in trouble with ICE if he gets stopped because he’s overstayed his visa by a few years.
Calliope Jane
Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
/TWW quote for the day :D
In better news, the Tucson City Council voted to approve a legal challenge to SB 1070 (first city to do so, 5-1). City of Flagstaff voted a few hours later to keep the law from going into effect. And, yes, Tucson is doing this because of the economic pressure. Mexico’s travel warning will hurt / is hurting Tucson. The potential boycotts coming from the western US cities (Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, LA, San Diego, and others) encouraged the (republican) mayor of Tucson to support the legal challenge (he clearly stated he hopes it exempts Tucson from the boycott). So, we’ll see. I know that Tucson can’t afford the boycott but economic pressure seems to be the only thing that gets Arizona to change (see, e.g., MLK Day).
mclaren
Polls also show a clear majority (60%) of Americans disbelieve in evolution. Since vaccines and new antibiotics to deal with antiobiotic-resistant infections are explicitly based on Darwinian evolution, politicians would be wise to ban vaccinations and antibiotics.
There’s a certain point beyond which you have to give up and walk away from the society because it’s too foolish to survive.
Ash Can
@Sentient Puddle:
Absolutely. That’s great to hear.
asiangrrlMN
@schrodinger’s cat: I have joked that if I die for whatever reason, my boys will at least be fed for weeks. As a friend of mine said, “You’re dead. Why should you care what they do to your body?”
@Ed Drone: I agree with you. I read a poll that was worded in such a way, there was really only one answer that would support the question–the conservative answer, as it happened to be. Polls are worthless.
P.S. I was glad to read that the Suns did not hesitate to show their support. I am heartened to know that the Spurs wanted to do it as well. It is very rare for a sports team to take a political stance.
LD50
Funny thing, for most of Bush’s 2nd term most Americans no longer supported the Iraq war, and yet amazingly the media was NOT full of people calling for politicians to get with it and end the war.
AngusJackBootedThugOfMeat
@asiangrrlMN:
The Suns had the uniform thing planned as a Cinco De Mayo PR deal a long time before the law came onto the radar. They are just now opportunistically saying that the uniforms “support” the resistance to the law. Which is fine, but let’s not get too teary eyed over it.
BruinKid
@licensed to kill time: Oh man, thank you so much!! :-D