Thought I would briefly chat about the ramifications of the Mollohan loss and give what little insight I can from the local perspective. Other than a couple years in the military, I’ve lived in this district my whole life. I had a Mollohan as my Representative (Bob then his son) my whole life, I handed out flyers for McKinley when I was in the GOP, and I went to school with his daughter (and even worked for her campaign for student government!).
At any rate, I would not at all be surprised to see McKinley win this race and pick up another seat for the Republicans. The first problem I see for Oliverio (and I’ve never met him or worked for his campaigns) was the entire tone of his campaign to unseat Mollohan. He ran to the right of Mollohan, and from his website alone, you can see where he stood on the issues:
*vehemently anti-cap and trade
*anti-choice
*against the HCR
In one quickly infamous moment, he even stated he might not support Pelosi in the leadership battle:
“I will vote for the candidate in the best interest of West Virginia,” Oliverio said following the event. “Hopefully, there will be a better candidate than Nancy Pelosi.”
There really isn’t a whole lot there to fire up the Democratic base, and I just don’t see how he tacks left heading into a general election. As it is, a lot of people in the liberal/progressive wing might look at this general election as a race between two Republicans. Again, I have never personally met the man, so I have no “feel” for him, but I know people who say he is a decent fellow.
One thing Oliverio does have is good name recognition, and as he is not an incumbent he can run against DC.
McKinley, on the other hand, has a strong base in the northern panhandle of the state, and has been active in the Republican party for decades. He is a staunch conservative, but he isn’t from the hater wing of the party. He dispatched the two candidates I would consider part of the Limbaugh/Palin wing of the party, but their combined vote was still more than McKinley’s, so that shows you where the WV GOP is. He’s a soft spoken guy and probably a little bit more polished than Oliverio, who sometimes seems wooden in commercials and television clips.
I haven’t followed McKinley for years, but I’d be really surprised if he embraces the Bachmann crazy. He just doesn’t seem like that kind of person, and my father reminded me that at least initially, he fought back against agreeing to a pledge to read every bill before he votes on it, telling the teabagger contingent that bills are long, you need aides to help you read them, and that they were being naive if they thought anyone had time to read every word of every bill. In other words, he was sensible, especially by Republican standards. I know that at least one of McKinley’s challengers went after him for that, so I don’t know if McKinley eventually backpedaled.
So McKinley has a good deal of cross-over appeal, especially when you consider the Democratic candidate has done very little to provide a contrast from the Republican platform. Additionally, he has a strong base in the northern panhandle, this state is trending red and went for McCain, and there is a GOP/anti-incumbent wind in the air. His website, however, is tragic.
Whatever happens, it is going to be a close race. Any time before the last few years when the national GOP went completely teabag insane and drove me from their ranks, and I would have voted for McKinley without a second thought. I don’t think I can vote for a Republican and give John Boehner and those clowns any power whatsoever, which really is a shame, because my gut tells me McKinley is a decent man. Having said that, Mike Oliverio has his work cut out for him to get me to hold my nose and vote for him. Considering I don’t know much about him except for the things I don’t like (the anti-choice stance, the anti-cap and trade, the willingness to sabotage leadership before even being elected), maybe there is something there I can rally around. I guess I have no other choice.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
You have another choice:
Don’t pull the lever for either. Yeah, that attitude will get me flamed but I swore I’d never vote for Chuckles Robb again after he voted to confirm Thomas for a seat with the Supremes. Didn’t mean I voted for asshole Oliver North, it just mean I didn’t pull the lever.
Claire McCaskill here in Misery is doing much the same thing to the Dem base. The Democratic leadership in this country needs to understand they’ll be held accountable at the ballot box if they run people who don’t hold to at least one or two core Dem values. Shit, I’m no teabagger on the left, I realize that the “perfect Dem” doesn’t exist so I’m willing to cut them some slack but for too long we’ve let these types skate.
No more.
The Moar You Know
Welcome to the hell that is being a Democrat. Every time I’ve gone to the voting booth, I stare in disgust at Feinstein’s name, then look at the one beside it and disgustedly mark Feinstein’s bubble, while feeling my soul get just a touch heavier.
geg6
I’m sorta in the same boat as you, John.
My incumbent in PA-04 is Jason Altmire, crazy teabagger Blue Dog. Voted against stimulus. Voted against HCR. Is currently sponsoring a bill to take away citizenship from terrorist suspects.
Not a guy I can vote for, really.
But…
He’s running against Mary Beth Buchanan, notorious US Attorney under W who prosecuted both Tommy Chong (and won) and Cyril Wecht (and lost). Both cases complete wastes of time and tax payer dollars, and one of which was simply a political witch hunt against a popular and prominent (if pompous) Dem. The woman who put a guy into federal prison for selling a glass bong is not a reasonable Republican of the sort I have sometimes voted for in the past.
I’m thinking of writing in my own name in November.
John Cole
@geg6: Altmire is CLEARLY the lesser of two evils. Vote for him.
Napoleon
I guess by promising that the one vote he will be with the Dems if voting for Pelosi (or at least promising not to vote for the Republican).
ksmiami
John – I know WV is pretty and has some great music, but how do you stand being around so many crazies??? I find as I get older that I really have no interest in or tolerance of hanging out with right wingtards
Napoleon
@geg6:
Sweet Jesus, she is a wack-a-loon. Vote for the dead corpse of Stalin before you vote for her.
Shalimar
Yeah, I agree with Cole. My rep is Bobby Bright. I don’t know who the Republican will be but this is Alabama so he/she will be far-right (though most likely not as repulsive as Buchanan). I can’t hold my nose enough to campaign for Bright but I don’t see any choice other than to vote for him.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@ksmiami:
Picking up and relocating in this day and age is a myth…assuming you want to remain employed with a job that has benefits.
I live in an area far redder than John’s (73% for McCain, yeah!) and like you, I detest my asshat, batshit crazy, wingnut neighbors.
But could I sell my house and leave tomorrow? Nope, much less find a job somewhere.
Citizen_X
Wait, you mean there’s a non-hater wing of the GOP?
geg6
@John Cole:
I really don’t think he is, John. I’ve been to town hall meetings with him and I’ve even met with him during the HCR debate. He should be forcibly stripped of the letter D after his name. He treated us (county Dem stalwarts) and the USW people abominably while at the very same time kissing the ass of the Teabaggers there. It was disgusting and quite illuminating.
I can’t really vote for a guy who treats the people who got him elected that way. The union guys were ready to torch the place.
NobodySpecial
@Citizen_X:
Yep, it’s the one in shrinkwrap at the grocery store.
The Moar You Know
Speaking of fake Democrats:
Snarlin’ Arlen fucks up big time (warning, Politico link)
I thought he’d be OK, but am a lot less certain about that after reading this.
David in NY
@geg6:
I want to support John on the Buchanan-Altmire thing. I would never want it to be said that anything I did, not even staying home, enabled her election. I would want to nip the possibility of Representative Buchanan, even Senator Buchanan, in the bud, however distasteful the action required might be.
Ash Can
Hmm…a freshman rep who’s on public record as being opposed to Nancy Pelosi, vs. a Republican — an established and relatively sensible one, but a Republican nonetheless, and likely to vote along the lines of a party that grows loonier by the day. That’s a Hobson’s choice, all right. I imagine that McKinley would likely be more effective at bringing money and services back to his state, as opposed to someone who’s likely to be made the House gofer and janitor by his fellow Dems, and that alone might be enough to tip the scales in his favor. I’d hate to be in your shoes come November, though.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
Here’s the dilemma:
You don’t vote for them, you lose seats in the House. Okay, sure, how often these asshats vote with the Party is problematic but at least they make the most important vote: for House control, ie., they vote for a Dem to be Speaker, etc.
Nonetheless, they do nothing to help enact long-term issues important to Dems.
So, the knee jerk reaction is to say “primary em out of existence”. Not always possible because of the usual advantages of incumbancy. Thus, it theoretically becomes a two-step process.
If the asshat isn’t primaried in the first place or no effective ability to primary them away presents itself, the only alternative is to not vote for them. Assuming they lose the general election, then we start the process over in two years, hopefully with better candidates in the primary and a more fired up base/electorate in the subsequent general.
Not pretty, fraught with peril but I can only hold my nose for so long. Again, not looking for purity. If my Dem comes from an area that’s rurl and big on “gun rights” and said Dem represents his/her constituents main interests that happen to run counter to the general lean of may other Dems, so be it. But continually sending Dems up there who literally are DINOs (Ike Skelton here in Misery is a poster child for that) isn’t doing us any long-term favors.
David in NY
@John Cole:
As to McKinley-Oliverio — who loves the banks more? Any distinction between the two? A guy like Bart Stupak, with whom I totally disagree on social issues, will at least come along on some economic issues.
jl
I agree with comrade scott at 16
Vote Democratic to support House caucus.
You are going to have to hold your nose either way.
In terms of likely future voting in House, sounds like neither candidate will do anything good.
If Mckinley is a good guy and you like him, well, that is just too bad in this case.
Send him and his kid some flowers and a condolence note if he loses if it makes you feel better about the stinky situation you are in as a voter.
demo woman
Sometimes you just have to hold your nose and choose the party that you support.
Why is Pelosi hated so? I’m interested only in policy reasons not that she’s some left person from CA. Look at the orange man from OH who has no policies.
geg6
@The Moar You Know:
Well, it’s been pretty easy for me to decide to vote for Sestak in the primary. He’s a real Dem, after all, and there really was no contest there, AFAIC.
But should Specter win the primary next week, I will certainly vote for him in the general. I’ve voted for him in the past, even when he was a Republican, after all. I don’t find him all that attractive as a senator, candidate, or even as a person. But there have been some really crazy Dems who were actually more conservative than him who faced him in the past. And Arlen always was a pretty centrist GOPer, supporting the right choose and stem cell research and such. The Anita Hill thing has always bothered me, but not nearly as much as the fundie, woman hating Dems who ran against him.
PaulW
There are always possibilities.
I ask you, can you write-in a candidate’s name in your district/state?
What you can do then is locate someone willing to ‘run’ for the office, not on an official campaign but a write-in. Ask that person to confirm he/she will stand for the values you want – for effective government, willing to push back against the lobbyists, supportive for electoral and congressional reform, etc. Get your friends to support the campaign. Work the neighborhoods. Spread the word for people to bring their own pencils to the precincts on election day and WRITE IN that person’s name.
You don’t have to choose Democrat or Republican. These are false choices, presented to you by parties who are unable or unwilling to effectively fix what’s broken and truly represent the needs of the people.
We need to start looking, all of us, in every state, we need to start looking at writing in our candidates that we want! No more prepackaged crap.
Cathy W
I had a sensible Republican representative for two years – he snuck in through a highly contested primary where the other six candidates split the wingnut vote. It was kind of refreshing. Two years later, the Club for Growth bankrolled probably the most objectionable of the six wingnuts from the previous primary and I got weeks and weeks and weeks of thrice-daily mailings telling me what a liberal the sensible Republican was…alas. (Two years after that, I have a vaguely progressive Democrat, because the wingnut pissed everybody off. Dudes, you knew what you were getting when you voted for him…)
Honestly, I would probably prefer a sensible Republican to a die-hard Blue Dog, because the sensible Republican will not repeatedly get my hopes up only to dash them again. Kind of a “truth in labeling” issue…
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Cathy W:
Where are all these sensible Republicans? They’re kinda like gay Republicans, if they come out of the closet, they’re ostracized.
Nick
He ousted a 28 year Democratic incumbent, clearly he did something to fire up the base.
My suggestion…move.
Face
McKinley a stunt double for Cliff Claven?
TooManyJens
@demo woman:
I think you’re going to be waiting a long time. She’s a liberal, she’s a woman, and she’s from San Francisco (where, you know, Teh Gheys live).
That’s really all they need.
Corner Stone
@ksmiami:
Where can one go to escape them?
sacman701
Protest votes are pointless unless either (a) the race is uncompetitive or (b) you are completely indifferent between the candidates who can actually win. With rare exceptions (e.g., FL senate seat in 2010) this means either the D or the R. As things are now, all Republican house candidates are John Boehner as a first approximation.
I think Cathy W lives in Mark Schauer’s district in Michigan.
merrinc
I was living in WV when the elder Mollohan retired and I was not at all pleased that his son ascended to the throne. I was in college then and fairly politically active. I remember handing out flyers at a precinct from some candidate whose name I no longer remember but I do recall quite clearly my disgust with all the people who said they were voting for him because of the family connection. So on one hand, I find it hard to get worked up that for the first time since 1968, the Mollohan family is not representing the 1st district. On the other, Oliverio seems like a bad DINO. Very bad.
Sentient Puddle
@PaulW:
A nice sentiment.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, I’m going to have to agree with the general consensus so far and say vote Dem. I get the ambivalence and probably would feel the same way too, but when it comes to congress, party affiliation predicts about 95% of what a representative will do. I’m all for sane Republicans, but a Speaker Boehner would have much more power than all the sane Republicans in the country times 10.
Nick
@PaulW:
You know, for years I’ve been writing in Cesar Chavez’ name and you know what? He never seems to win. I wonder why that is. Can you tell me?
Origuy
So Oliverio upset an incumbent Democrat who presumably had friends in the caucus, opposed the President’s number one initiative, bad-mouthed the current and probably future Speaker, and doesn’t support any other major bill pushed by his party. I see an assignment to the House Subcommittee on Oversight of Things Nobody Gives a Damn About in his future.
MattR
Last night’s repeat of South Park seems perfectly appropriate. It taught the very important lesson that your voting choices will always be a giant douche or a turd sandwich.
ksmiami
@Corner Stone
There are lots of pockets of us – Coconut Grove, Brentwood, SF – Brookline, funny – they are all pockets of really really nice places to live
Paris
The main reason I’m a strong supporter of public financed campaign is because I think it would improve the selection of candidates. With the current system, you get self selected ass-holery. I’ve known many quality people who, by their late 40’s and 50’s would be willing to entertain a second career in public service but who’s going to pursue that given the current situation of constantly have to be bought, glad handling, and begging? Knocking on doors is enough work alone.
BCHS 1980
I feel you from a distance John. I’m afraid my home state (born in Gassaway) will be the final echo of the door slamming shut on the Southern Strategy. :( I fear that when the lions in winter retire or are retired by time, it will be solid 5-0 for the GOP. The demo changes that will help the Dems elsewhere are almost non-existent in WV and it still is as insular today as it was when I grew up there in the ’70s. It’s God guns and gays there now and for the next few decades. Almost makes me wish for OSC’s Appalachee to isolate the “highland” influence. :) Feel free to substitute another word beginning with HI there; I won’t mind. :D
Shalimar
@demo woman: Pelosi has been the most effective congressional leader since LBJ. That is reason enough to be hated by the opposition. It is somewhat obscured because the Senate can’t pass shit so most of the biggest achievements don’t reach Obama’s desk, but Pelosi’s record the last few years controlling a very diverse caucus and getting liberal legislation passed on issue after issue has been phenomenal.
AnotherBruce
I haven’t been paying attention, how in the fuck did this guy get nominated? Do they allow crossover voting in the primary?
Nick
@AnotherBruce:
No, I think it’s a closed primary, they may allow independents, but I know they don’t allow Republicans.
This guy got nominated because his views are essentially the views of West Virginia Democrats…only a 1/3 of them say they’re liberal.
Bill
Not sure if it’s been posted yet, but wvablue has a great breakdown of what contributed to Mollohan’s loss:
http://wvablue.com/diary/5825/#12150
Nick
@Bill: Anyone who thinks Obama could have helped Mollohan is not worth listening to.
That sounds like it was written desperately by a progressive who is desperately trying to dispel the idea that his state/district is rejecting progressivism, which it is. It’s grasping at straws.
This is a conservative state with a conservative mentality and the progressive message was rejected here. That’s all there is to it.
D-Chance.
Cole, you could always write in James Traficant’s name. I understand he’s interested in a DC job. He’d probably even be willing to move to West Virginia…
which shows just how desperate he must be.
/grins
James
In regard to Buchanan, it appears the party will put up Rothfus as the candidate opposed to her. If so, then there is an option. I agree with everyone here in regard to Mary Beth Buchanan. She is unelectable and has demonstrated time again that she is clearly incapable of holding a position of trust and power. I would not trust her to be a parking attendant let alone a representative.
WVUDG
I have a lot of sympathy for anyone that used to have Vic Sprouse as a family member. You’re voting for a Republican either way. We’re not talking about the Senate here in terms of majority margin.
Bill
@Nick: I don’t think he deserves a lot of the blame, but the point, at least that I was making, is that Obama/Biden did win Marion and Monongahela Co.’s in ’08 (I would assume) largely because of the college vote. In fact, Marion co. is one of the few in the state that has gone blue the last three Pres. elections. How many of those people do you think came out yesterday? I’m not saying Obama and/or Biden would’ve had to camp out here, but I don’t think an appearance or two, some robocalling, etc. would’ve hurt. Seems like it would’ve been a nice payback for getting Mollohan’s vote on HCR. The GOTV effort has not been that great so far this year, and that would seem to be a problem going forward, not just for this race but others. I’m certainly not going to disagree that the element isn’t there, but I think simply writing WV off as a state made up of racists/rednecks and basically ignoring it come election time is a mistake that national dems have made the last few years.
To be sure, however, Mollohan made some mistakes of his own as far as how hard he campaigned/controlling the message go.