Only irrational “throw the bums out” anger could explain why Democrats would reject an 80-year-old, yet newly minted, member of their party. Stuff like this could have nothing to do with it.
(via Stu Rothenberg)
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Mike Kay
Don’t forget how we were repeatedly told by the old and new media that democrats wouldn’t turn out. Big shot bloggers were especially guilty of this.
Nick
And of course don’t forget how this spells DOOM for the Democratic Party.
Oh, and keeping John Murtha’s House, which John McCain became the first Republican presidential candidate since 1972 to carry, by a 9 point margin over a well-funded Republican candidate also means Democrats are doomed!
fucen tarmal
or maybe, voters here, outside of the philadelphia and adjacent region, know that specter hasn’t done dick in thirty years for our most of the state. that would never occur to chrissy mathews or anything, because we are all too dumb to know the difference. which is why, in their view, only philly matters in the first place.
pa-12? yeah i wish a lib could win there, but a platform conservative vs a local issues guy? guess the voters ain’t that dumb, they want someone in congress who will bring something back with him. that is half opening the door, get his vote on things we want, give up some stuff to keep the voters there on board, as necessary.
the grand narratives are bullshit, unless they include voting self-interest.
kid bitzer
did arlen lose a lot of hair in the last six years, or was he wearing a marmalade cat on his head back then?
Hunter Gathers
I think the Dems have a shot in Kentucky. Paul is a political novice, and there’s a fairly good chance he will say something completely crazy which could fuck him. Not in a general He’s BatShit Crazy type of way, but in a He’s Completely BatShit Crazy And Will Hurt Your Wallet kind of way.
MattF
I agree. Specter was not so bad for a Republican. But, c’mon people, why not an actual Democrat? And a Democratic primary election seems to me– what–the sort of place where this sentiment should find expression. La lutte continue, as the garlic-eaters say.
Comrade Mary
Toronto free newspaper headline: “US tea party nets victory”. Implied conservatve anger also reponsible for incumbent Dem challenges. PA Murtha seat mentioned, and presence of Repub candidates was a sign on “unrest”, too — because up until now, candidates alway ran unopposed.
Dem win in PA after all that — not mentioned.
Of course, this is an AP story. Absolutely batshit, absolutely typical.
JCT
@kid bitzer:
Chemo for Hodgkins x 2 will do that.
dmsilev
@kid bitzer:
Low blow. He went through two bouts of chemotherapy in the interim.
dms
JCT
@Hunter Gathers:
There was a recent story that when a reporter asked Rand whether he felt that the 2nd Amendment supported the violent overthrow of the govt, one of his staffers instantly shut down the interview before he could answer. His campaign stops are attended by armed militia types — his “protectors” so to speak.
There will be a rich array of visuals and soundbites that Conway can use to illustrate just how nuts Rand really is, should he choose to use them. Not to mention the fact that Rand comes across as somewhat “off” — debates will be interesting.
Thunderbird
@Hunter Gathers: Digby had a post up yesterday citing an article that said only 40% of Grayson voters would support Paul in the general election, and 43% explicitly said they would not. Conway’s got a good shot.
Here: http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2010/05/silver-linings-trey-graysons-supporters.html
kid bitzer
@8,9–
oh damn. nope, i really did not know that. and if i had, i would not have said it.
sorry.
Nick
@kid bitzer:
he had cancer.
Liz
@Hunter Gathers:
I know I’m pleased when any candidate endorsed by Darth Cheney is defeated. Even if it means Rand Paul wins.
tofubo
isn’t capitalism just a massive transfer of wealth ??
a place where employers want to pay workers as little as possible so that they have money to pay other businesses as much as possible for a product or service
bonus if you work in a profession where there are hungrier people who will do the same job for less pay or have a monopoly where the competition is nonexistant
maybe i’m missing something
Ash Can
@tofubo: The Gospel According to Ayn Rand states that business owners have to treat their workers decently, or the Invisible Hand of the Market will move them to their competitors, who will pay them more.
…Ow. It makes my head hurt to think of how badly Randians have to contort their minds to maintain their beliefs in the face of reality.
Violet
It’s funny that the Dem turnout all over has been pretty good. Some of it may be crossover votes, but even so, the Republican dominance line seems to be a tad overstated.
stuckinred
@tofubo: you mean if you OWN and business, not work in one?
kay
@Violet:
To be fair, some of that meme was driven by liberals. I think they were so rattled by the losses in Virginia and Massachusetts that they looked for any explanation other than “lousy campaigns and candidates”, and found one. Massachusetts union voters came out, they just voted for Scott Brown. There was an effort not to admit that.
mai naem
Admitedly I didn’t watch the whole show this morning, but Joe Scarbo on Morning Ho this morning was going on and on about Blumenthal but nothing about his buddy, his pal Mark Souder. You know, yet another ’94 Family Values guy screwing around a woman outside the confines of his marriage.
Don’t know nothing about Conway but Rand Paul from what I’ve seen doesn’t come across as a very warm people person kind of politician. Isn’t that kind of what you need to win?
PanAmerican
I was half asleep but think I heard Larry Sabato opine this morning that it wasn’t so much anti-incumbent as anti-establishment. Yeaaah…THAT’s the ticket. I’ll just take it as admission that Tom Perillo isn’t going anywhere.
As for Charlie Cook…. PA-12 “lean republican”? I mean if Critz had eeked out a one point win, but nine? Charlie, tell us again about the angry white man and the 50 seat swing.
fucen tarmal
@mai naem:
when you bond over western grip-handjob circlejerks, you bond for life, class of 94!
kay
@mai naem:
Scarborough got both the law and the facts wrong on the recent SCOTUS decision re: sex offenders. He’s an idiot. He couldn’t have read it. He and Pat Buchanan had a 5 minute discussion completely based on ignorance, and the moronic Mika adopted the opposite position, and she couldn’t have read it either. Nearly ever word was wrong, both “sides”.
They had a debate about an imaginary court case. Fiction.
Ash Can
@Violet: If the Republicans really ramp up the crazy for the general election (which I think may very well happen, given Rand Paul’s victory among other things), I think there’s a good chance that the average Joe-in-the-Street voter will look things over, see someone screaming about reds under the beds vs. someone uttering soundbites about actual issues, and make a snap decision to go with the person who sounds more serious about the job. I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout yesterday indicated the beginning of this sort of thing happening.
The average American voter may be depressingly low-info and too easily fooled, but tends not to cotton to outright batshit insanity. If the GOP chooses to reflect more and more closely the 18% of the voting population that does, they can be my guest. And then we can all have a good laugh as the know-it-all pundits keep predicting a GOP landslide on November 2, then wring their hands for days afterward, wailing and wondering what the hell happened.
Thunderbird
mai naem: “Don’t know nothing about Conway but Rand Paul from what I’ve seen doesn’t come across as a very warm people person kind of politician.”
Well, considering he wouldn’t even take Grayson’s phone call to concede the race, I’d say your assessment’s pretty spot-on.
ChockFullO'Nuts
Arlen Specter is a carpetbagger in the Democratic party.
He managed to lose his base as a Republican and never really established one as a Democrat.
The idea that his defeat in this primary would surprise anyone in the slightest is a mystery to me. The man needs to retire.
Tom Hilton
No tears for Arlen, certainly. But while I know we’re supposed to like Joe Sestak (our blogospheric overlords insist on it)…”the politicians in Washington DC”? Seriously? Watching his acceptance speech last night I got the total phony vibe that John (I think) was talking about yesterday.
Persia
I also love that none of these ‘anti-incumbent fervor’ memes talk at all about health care reform, or who might have been reluctant to embrace it. Because that just didn’t happen, I guess.
Gus
I saw some footage of Specter walking to the voting precinct (I think that’s what he was doing), and man does he look every one of his 80 years. It’s time for him to retire anyway.
Ash Can
@kay: In hindsight, yes, those liberals (fortunately) were off the mark on turnout. I’m willing to cut them a little slack, though, since it’s a good idea to avoid complacency under any circumstances, and if their doomsaying gets a few people motivated it’s not a bad thing in the long run. Annoying as hell, maybe, but not harmful.
El Cid
My blog-reading memory of the last few weeks is sort of fuzzy, but as far as claiming that Democrats wouldn’t turn out, I remember that back when polls were showing very low Dem motivation & related responses, but then that began to change quite sharply, and I’m pretty sure that a lot of writers (and hosts like Rachel Maddow) started to suggest that maybe that earlier assumption would be wrong.
jwb
@Ash Can: It actually depends a lot on the economy. If things continue to improve, I think the Goopers may even lose seats if they continue to double down on crazy, but if the economy stagnates again or heads toward a double dip, the “reds under the beds” will become a lot more appealing and the Dems could face huge losses even running against crazy. That’s really the danger of an insane opposition.
kay
@Ash Can:
I think it’s a way to push policy while appearing to be arguing politics. I don’t have any problem with that. They’re advocates. They should use any tactic that gets them where they’re going, and the “dispirited Democrats” theme is as good as any other.
kos feels strongly that Obama should push back harder against Republicans, and that Democrats should take up immigration reform. He used his theme of low turnout to push that policy objective.
I just don’t confuse advocacy with hard-headed statistical analysis, because it’s not the same thing :)
ppcli
@Gus: Yep. Time for the former head counsel for the Warren commission and (I understand) inventor of the magic bullet theory to take the time to write a book telling us what *really* happened.
Violet
@jwb:
Agreed. It’s the economy. I just hope the Euro problems don’t turn out to be far worse than they are now. Not holding my breath on that one.
@Tom Hilton:
There’s something about him that reminds me of John Edwards. There’s some smarminess. Maybe it’s nothing, but maybe it’s a big thing. I don’t know anything about him.
JGabriel
MisterMix:
It probably didn’t. Everyone knew Specter was Republican, and photos of him with GOP leaders weren’t telling them anything they didn’t already know.
Specter was probably done in by four factors:
1) Age & Health – he was 80 years old, and had been treated for cancer, it was a concern to a lot of people.
2) Perception of Opportunism – Specter didn’t sell his party switch very well. It might have gone better for him if he’d gone the tried-and-true “the party left me route”, but he didn’t. Also, a Sestak ad took video of a Specter clip discussing his switch out of context, in a way that made Specter look manipulative and scheming (subliminally playing off of anti-semitic “scheming Jew” stereotypes) which was extremely effective, even despite local news reports showing how the quote was taken out of context.
3) Anti-incumbency – PA is the home of last years “sending kids to juvie for money” kickback scandal. People are revolted by it, and while Specter obviously had nothing to do with that, the general attitude in PA these days is: they’re all crooks, and, even if they aren’t, we don’t have time to research and sort them – so kick them all out and put in fresh people who haven’t developed a corruption network yet. So, yes, anti-incumbency is a factor here, but the reasoning is a lot more local than analysis in the mainstream press would indicate.
4) Anita Hill – a lot of people on the left and in the center, where he needed the votes, never forgave Specter for his behavior in the Clarence Thomas hearings.
For better or worse, Specter’s former status as a Bush-supporting Republican was probably not that much of a factor in his loss, except to the extent that it fed the image of opportunism.
.
slippy
@jwb:
My money is on that one. For all the shrieking about our country “tilting to the right” in an economic crisis (I’ve heard this meme several times) the problem is the Tea Party is incoherent, violent, unpricipled, and NUTS. And Obama is not flailing about like he doesn’t know what’s going on.
JGabriel
@Ash Can:
The thing is, that could work, to some extent anyway, if there were strong unions to represent workers interests in the face of corporate power.
The fact that most libertarians and Randians oppose unions puts the lie to their rhetoric.
.
Tom Hilton
@Ash Can:
I think actually The Gospel According to Ayn Rand states that workers have to treat their business owners decently, or the Invisible Hand of the Market will move them to Galt Gulch.
SIA
I haven’t read thru the comments yet so this may have been mentioned, but here’s the web NYT headine in my inbox:
No! That’s not it at all!
slippy
@mai naem: Conway ran a couple of times against Ann Northup and lost. He’s exactly my age so I think (10 years ago at age 32) he was probably not quite polished enough as a politician to take on an old-money b*** like her. He was not the one running against her when the Dem wave started – I think he’d moved on to whatever his current job is. But he’s charismatic and he’s of course smarter than a box of peanuts which always puts him ahead of a Republican. Ron Paul is a dufus with stupid ideas when it comes right down to it and his son can’t be much more than a chip off the ol’ block. I put my money on Conway.
jwb
@Violet: “Agreed. It’s the economy. I just hope the Euro problems don’t turn out to be far worse than they are now. Not holding my breath on that one.”
I think the Eurozone will implode before this is over, with a number of countries pulling out of the Euro. With luck, this won’t happen until after the election. Short term, the Euro problems may actually offer a slight advantage to the US economy. Or so says K-Thug.
SIA
The Obama Era has everyone off their game. I like it.
SIA
@Tom Hilton: I agree, Sestak comes off insincere and his timing is bad on TV. I doubt I’ll ever warm up to the guy. But I think it may be just bad presentation (ie Nancy Pelosi, who often seems like a nitwit when interviewed) on Sestak’s part. What matters is how he votes. My gut instinct is that he’ll be a pretty reliable vote somewhere between a progressive and a blue dog. He knows he has to get re-elected too.
ETA: of course this is all of no account unless he can beat Toomey in Nov.
Eric U.
The Specter footage that Sestak used may have been taken out of context, but there was other footage where Specter said exactly the same thing as on the ads. We all know the party switch was for re-election purposes only, and the only reason he’s been a reliable dem vote is that he wanted to be elected and maintain his committee assignments. I always figured voting for Specter was voting to have someone just like Lieberman/Nelson/Lincoln representing me.
I have hated him since Anita Hill, but I was hoping he would just retire instead of running this year. Maybe he did us a service by warming things up for Toomey later, who knows how that works.
Tom Hilton
@SIA: Agreed: better than Specter, and certainly way better than Toomey. I just found myself getting surprisingly irritated at his victory speech.
jwb
@Tom Hilton: And it will only get worse as he pivots to the general election: Hippie punching time!
SIA
@Tom Hilton: His public presentation is bad enough that someone in his campaign should get him some public speaking lessons immediately.
The PA-12 democratic win for Murtha’s old seat is the one that has the GOP’s panties in a wad. I’m really loving that one.
SIA
This is hilarious: http://xnerg.blogspot.com/
Admiral Sleestak!
(I caught that movie by accident last week – totally goofy and fun)
jwb
@SIA: Yes, and not just the Goopers, the MSM as well. Clearly, they were expecting that at best that the Dems would sneak through with a small win, and it was very amusing watching them squirm calling an 8 point victory “narrow.”
grandpajohn
@SIA: I am constantly amused at how our ignorant media people can take one data point and determine a trend line, with said trend line amazingly confirming their suppositions
SIA
@grandpajohn: They have a real talent in that direction!
@jwb: Indeed, like the NYT headline this morning. I don’t have TV this week so I’m being spared alot of the silliness.