The real question here is what team will accompany Argentina from this group into the second round. This is, on balance, a weak group for a formidable team such as Argentina. If Maradona chooses to run with two strikers, he has plenty of options: paring Leo Messi with Gonzalo Higuain or Carlos Tevez with Diego Milito you have a tall and a small, wiry attacker. Messi gets a lot of heat for not performing as well for country as he does for club, so this will be a good opportunity for him to silence the critics.
Where I think Maradona deserves some criticism in his tendency to what I believe is play favorites. He may be a fan of Juan Sebastian Veron, but he’s thirty-five years old and that may be come back to haunt him against the likes of some of the speedier attackers like the ones you’ll find on South Korea’s team. Notwithstanding the terrific year that Walter Samuel has had at Inter Milan, both he and Gabriel Heinze another likely center back are both 32. If he’s smart, he’ll put Nicolas Otamendi or Martin DeMichelis to pair with either Heinze or Samuel (if it were up to me, it would be Samuel).
Can anyone explain what Maradona has against Esteban Cambiasso? He may be the best holding midfielder in Italy’s Serie A, but Maradona has called him up once for a friendly against Spain and left him off the roster for South Africa. Maradona has six forwards including Martin Palermo at 37 selected for the team. In the later rounds he may regret not having Cambiasso.
As for the rest of the pack, here are my thoughts. Greece’s best asset may be their coach, Otto Rehhagel. This is the same coach who took them from nowhere to the Euro 2004 Championship. He also led my beloved Kaiserlautern Red Devils to win the Bundesliga 2nd Division title, and the first year of promotion, to win the Bundesliga First Division Title. This is unprecedented to my knowledge in any major football league. Unfortunately, he can’t play and the actual team can play a bit on the uninspired side. They’re solid in defense, but a bit stolid on attack. Still Rehhagel, may be able to pull a few tricks out of his sleeve.
Nigeria has some talent, without question and while I like Obafemi Martins and John Obi Mikel, the fact that Kanu is on the team means that this is not the Nigeria of Sunday Oliseh or Jay-Jay Okocha. While they finished a respectable, but apparently unsatisfactory third in the Africa Cup of Nations, they fired the coach, Shaibu Amodu and hired long time Sweden coach, Lars Lagerback for his first assignment outside of Sweden. Changing coaches this close to the World Cup does not strike me as a formula for success.
South Korea has an impressive attack, especially led by Park Ji-Sung, whose speed and skill on the ball is a thing of beauty. Although I believe that Ahn Jung-Hwan is their for inspiration and to encourage T-shirt and poster sales, I don’t think that can be sold short. The South Koreans are a strongly unified team and given the troubles Nigeria is facing, that may give them an edge.
Where I believe South Korea is weak is in the back. I just don’t see much inspiring play there.
So who else in the group will go through? I believe that Argentina will probably get maximum points in this group. The key match in my opinion will be the one between South Korea and Greece. If a team wins that match, I believe that they’ll go through. If they tie, I’m truly stumped. That may favor Greece as they will face Argentina at the end of group play. On the other hand, if Nigeria has lost to Argentina and has not gained maximum points against Greece, that may strengthen South Korea, especially if they control their destiny and Nigeria is already out.
Cross Posted at Beautiful Horizons
Lars Thorwald
So, I’m not clear still on this. What does any of this have to do with the NFL?
Jaim
I’m thinking South Korea should make it through with Argentina. You’re right thought that they look shaky on defense at times. People here are definitely pumped up though.
Violet
I’m feeling a bit miffed at Greece for the Euro disaster (the currency, not soccer), so can’t decide if I want to support them. They could use some cheering up, though, so it might be kind of nice if their team does well.
I love watching the Argentinians play. They seem so freewheeling and, to me, are much more interesting to watch than some other countries. I probably won’t be pulling for them in the group stage because I usually cheer for underdogs, but unless something goes very wrong, they’ll make it out of their group. I’ll probably support them after that, depending on who they play. I’ve always loved watching them.
Corner Stone
Thanks to this post, I am the happiest man alive.
db
excellent post… damn, you know your futbol
mcd410x
Nate Silver is doing some great numbers work over at ESPN, ratings and predicions.
Well, we’ll see if he’s doing great or not when the games commence. Worth a read.
Martin
And I figured out that the ESPN3 feeds will work in the office with my cable account login/password. I’m almost tempted to say something nice about my cable operator for this pleasant surprise and competent execution.
Almost.
Mark S.
6 forwards? Are they planning on playing a 4-3-3, or is Maradona back on the coke?
James
nice post, really fun to see football posts here. can I make a suggestion? how about starting or ending each group related post with links to all such posts? for quick access.
as a korean fan, i would add:
park js has speed and skill, but the primary thing about him is tons of energy and hard work. three-lung park as he’s called at man utd. or oxygen-tank park in korea.
park is more of an inspiration for the team at the moment than ahn. ahn is beckhamish: super famous, some unforgettable goals including the ’02 ones. unlikely to start games, but if things are tough at the 75th minute, we hope he can come on and provide magic. but inspiring and leading the team would be captain park.
back line is troubling. we just lost kwak tae-hee during a friendly. he’s not a rock like hong myung-bo who led the ’02 defense as the respected elder figure, but he was a lock to be picked for the 23, and now he’s out.
also carrying knocks: park himself who is being protected and not playing later today vs spain. it’s supposed to not be serious. i sure hope so.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
I think Argentina and Nigeria will make it through. Nigeria has fired a lot of coaches rashly and still made it to the quarter-finals.
ETA: Just read Nate Silver’s analysis of the home continent advantage for Nigeria and laughed out loud. South Africans hate Nigerians with a passion as anyone who watched District 9 can guess, and will be rooting for any other team.
JL
Whenever the World Cup rolls around, I always find myself wishing that I was a soccer fan. Over the years I’ve worked with people from all around the world while the tournament was on, and it’s always a blast to hear them and see the fire in their eyes– maybe especially because (at least) half the time I have no idea whatsoever they’re saying.
Go Team USA. Any chance of them going deep this year?
Jim in Chicago
Argentina barely made it out of qualifying. Don’t underestimate the amount of damage the old cokehead can do to this team….
PanAmerican
Seriously. The problem here isn’t Messi. It’s that idiot coach. Is anyone going to be surprised if they lose to the Group B runner up?
PanAmerican
@PanAmerican:
Excuse me, Group A runner up.
Mark S.
Nobody likes a cold seat for their bum first thing in the morning:
Andy K
@Mark S.:
Diego Maradona: What an asshole.
Martin
@Andy K: Ah, but a clean asshole, inside and out.
mnpundit
Why should anyone care about this? Yawn.
Martin
@mnpundit:
Every other blog is that way –>
jp2
Can anyone explain what Maradona has against Esteban Cambiasso? He may be the best holding midfielder in Italy’s Serie A, but Maradona has called him up once for a friendly against Spain and left him off the roster for South Africa. Maradona has six forwards including Martin Palermo at 37 selected for the team. In the later rounds he may regret not having Cambiasso.
Mascherano, the best holding mid in the world.
Other than that, no real idea. He played great for Inter all season.
Calouste
I have seen a few analyses of the World Cup and what I have seen no one mention so far is the altitude difference. 3 of the stadiums are at sea level and the rest are at 4000-5000 feet. There are a couple of instances where a team plays at sea level and then has to play the next match at altitude three days later against a team that had their previous match at altitude and thus had a week to acclamatize. That sounds like a serious disadvantage to me.
samuel blaise joseph ndiaye
Despite the poor choice of Maradona, Argentina remains and will remain the arch-favorite performer of the group, now on its workforce, it is only master on board, he will do what it deems good for his team, already has them because selected the players he believes the chances ready to defend the world from Argentina.
As for the team that will rank second in the pool, I think that Nigeria and South Korea are better placed
Thlayli
Tim Vickery has been over this a couple of times:
Cambiasso was a regular in the qualifiers before Maradona took over, and he was terrible, as was the team as a whole. All the people shouting “What about Cambiasso??” are basing their opinions on his play in Europe, in Mourinho’s system.
See also: Zanetti, J.
James McB
Re: Rehagel’s exploits with Kaiserslauten. It may be unprecedented in German football to win the second division and first division in straight seasons, but not in the wider scheme of things.
In the 1976/77 season, Brian Clough won promotion from the English second division, coaching Nottingham Forest, I believe finishing third. The next season he won the first division title, then in the following two seasons won the European Cup, in the days when it really was a competition for the champions of the national leagues.
Rehagel is a good coach, even if his style of play is a little on the dour, almost cynical side, but I don’ t think he was in the same class as Clough.
Blue Neponset
I am rooting for a brand new WC champion this year. Therefore, I want S. Korea and Greece to advance. Both teams seem like they could cause trouble for other contenders. Greece especially. Their 1-9-1 formation tends to shut down good teams.
Also, for some reason I can’t explain I actually like does Carlos Tevez. Besides the Tevez family, I think I am the only one who does.
Some immigrant guy
Big question in this group is what sort of Argentina team comes out the other side. Maradonna could turn out a team of world-beaters, but they could almost as easily be on the first flight home.
Nigeria, like the other African teams, will be well supported so despite the usual coaching chaos should in theory be tougher opponents, Greece as you say will be a well-organized outfit, and S Korea will not give much away.
I think this group is a bit of a Turkey-shoot as a result, Argentina ought to come away with three wins and leave the others scrapping for second, but that’s just not in the Maradonna script and I would suggest a sneaky wager on S Korea (whose chances have been all but written off) is not the worst idea).
Randinho
@Lars Thorwald: Read my response here and knock it off. You’re trolling.
The same goes for you MNPundit.
The Bearded Blogger
Why does Maradona leave out Esteban Cambiasso (and includes the likes of Martin Palermo)?
Because he is a Boca fan, and Boca fans hate River Plate.
(For those not in the know, those are two argentinian teams)
Randinho
@The Bearded Blogger: That’s what I suspected and I made the same argument here.
Tracy
@mcd410x:
Nate needs to update, though – his Germany assessment still mentions Ballack, even though he’s officially out.
Randy Paul
@James McB: Perhaps, but Clough brought a lot of baggage with him.
Paula
Group C bitchezzz … !
j/k
Thanks for writing these up and the blog hosts for … hosting them. It’s a different style than what I’m getting from, say, places like soccernet and deadspin and is very welcome.
Anyone got big viewing plans for the Yanks/[whatever those limeys call themselves] match?
gaderson
@Blue Neponset:
I also say I’m a fan of the ‘other’ Manchester workman-like striker. I like the fact that he seems to be one of the few Latin American strikers that just plays–he doesn’t fall down and cry whenever a defender looks at him sideways.
Elyssa
S. Korea is my country and I am so going for them, I mean look at what happened to Greece today. Greece is in 13th place. S Korea is in 47 and they won, by 2. I must say that is close, but they won!!!