How solid is Spain as a team? You could easily create the strong nucleus of a World Cup contender from their bench. Consider a team consisting of Victor Valdes, Raul Albiol, Álvaro Arbeloa, Carlos Marchena, Sergio Busquets, Cesc Fabregas, Pedro, Javi Martinez, Jesus Navas and Fernando Llorente and you get the idea.
Full disclosure: I’m a big FC Barcelona fan. One of the highlights of a trip to Spain ten years ago was seeing a game at the Nou Camp stadium.
While Iker Casillas remains La Furia Roja’s number one keeper, for the past two seasons in La Liga Victor Valdes has compiled a better record with 34 clean sheets to Casillas’ 28, yet Valdes just got his first cap a week ago today against South Korea. Two of Valdes’ teammates at Barcelona, Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué form a tough and savvy central defense, with Joan Capdevila at left back and Sérgio Ramos at right back. Notwithstanding his athleticism, I don’t think Ramos always keeps his head in the game and that makes me a bit nervous.
Xabi Alonso is an excellent anchor in the defensive midfield and possesses a strong foot on free kicks. The heart and soul of Spain’s midfield are Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Xavi is a marvelous playmaker and arguably the best passer in the game, sending the ball through to his teammates as if it had eyes. He was voted the player of the tournament in the 2008 European Championship. In my opinion there is no better on-field tactician. He is complemented superbly by Andres Iniesta, another relatively small player who, like Xavi, makes up for his physical limitations with his head for the game and technical ability.
The forward combination of Fernando Torres and David Villa. While Torres has a good nose for the goal, I believe Villa is more versatile and a better finisher. In reserve they have the speedy Jesus Navas and Juan Mata and the 6’5″ target of Fernando Llorente.
Chile is another underrated team from South America. They are coached by Marcelo Bielsa, an Argentine who led them skillfully during qualification in which they finished in second place, one point behind Brazil. Likely in defense you’ll find a versatile group with pace: Gonzalo Jara, Waldo Ponce, Arturo Vidal and perhaps Pablo Contreras. Carlos Carmona, Rodrigo Millar and Gary Medel form the heart of the midfield with Matias Frnandez as a withdrawn striker/midfield playmaker.
Humberto Suazo and Alexis Sánchez make for a fairly impressive forward attacking pair. Remember, Chile doesn’t have to beat everyone in this group; just everyone except for Spain.
In this group the Swiss strike me as a bit stolid and unimaginative. Granted, they won their group in qualification, but their group consisted of Greece, Luxembourg, Moldova, Latvia and Israel. Too bad they couldn’t have faced a tough team like the Faeroe Islands. . .
That notwithstanding, Diego Benaglio is a good keeper. With the exception of Phiippe Senderos, a hardworking center back who’s good in the air, I’m not familiar with their defenders. I do know their likely midfield of Tranquillo Barnetta, Gelosn Fernandes, Gokhan Inler and Marco Paladino and it’s decent, aggressive, but can’t solve the problems in the defense and in the attack. Switzerland will rely either on Alex Frei, if he can remain healthy along with Blaise Nkufo (age 35 with his next stop Seattle in the MLS) or Hakan Yakin, a creative player to be sure, but one man does not make a team.
I haven’t seen much of the Honduran players except in qualification. I do like Maynor Figueroa, who scored the goal of the year for the English Premier League last year: a strike from beyond midfield that seemed to be laser-guided. I also like Wilson Palacios, Hendry Tomas and David Suazo. I had the singular misfortune of seeing the skilled, but, to be charitable, mercurial Amado Guevara play here in the MLS. There’s some talent there with out question, but they’re outclassed in this group.
Spain and Chile will go through.
Here are my comments on Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E, Group F
and Group G.
Let the games begin!
Cross posted at Beautiful Horizons.
Andy K
I can’t believe that, after his performance in Euro ’08, Marcos Senna is not on Spain’s roster. What gives?
JenJen
Thanks, Randinho! I’ve been hitting refresh hoping you’d post Group H while I frantically finish tweaking my FIFA/McDonald’s fantasy team. :-)
Squeeeeee!! I’m pretty excited. It’s hard to believe it’s finally here!
MikeJ
I’ll worry about the cup tomorrow, I’m just wondering wtf happened to the sounders tonight,
Mark S.
I’m not used to this new non-choking Spanish team. What’s next, England playing up to its potential?
Ditto on Spain and Chile getting thru.
mcd410x
Nine and a half hours!
Calming Influence
I’m gonna have to go with the Celtics on this one.
Brandon
So Randinho, you only identified 10 likely starters for Spain. Who do you think will be the other midfielder? Is there room for Fabregas in the starting 11?
Splitting Image
Wake me if Denmark wins. I’ll also raise a cold one if France gets its ass kicked.
dp
As someone who doesn’t really care about soccer ….
seriously — how many groups are there? Are we heading for Z, or what?
Joel
Would like to see Honduras represent CONCACAF well, not optimistic of that, but this tourney always has a few surprises in the group stage.
Americanadian
@Mark S.: I won’t believe either of those teams have steadied themselves until one of them hoists the Cup. That said, this Spanish team is going down in history one way or another: as curse-breakers, or as supremely talented disappointments. Forget the markets and the Germany-Spain bond spread, an early choke job by these guys might be the thing that sends Spain spiraling into chaos.
Smedley
What a fine analysis. I don’t have the understanding you have but I look forward to ar,ed by you insight.
Thanks
Awktalk
The Swiss team had a horrific home showing in 2008. But in 2006 they advanced from their group in the WC and lost to Ukraine on penalty kicks. They didn’t give up a goal in 4 games. Their road to this year’s WC was pretty impressive, beating Greece home and away (with an embarrassing couple of performances along the way). Underestimating them is a mistake. I can see them qualifying 2nd in group H and giving an overrated Brazil team a helluva round of 16 matchup. They are my sleeper in this WC, and I predict they will knock Brazil out.
Brandon
@Americanadian: A prolonged tournament for Spain could have the same effect considering the impact the World Cup has on productivity. I should go find that data, but I’m too lazy.
Dave
Fuck Victor Valdes, Pepe Reina is twice the goalie (shame about the rest of the current ‘pool team though).
SRW1
Yeah, Spain looks impressive, and during Euro 2008 they finally showed that they can overcome their usual choking at big tournaments. But IIRC, no European team has ever won the WC when the tournament wasn’t held in their home continent. So, I’d still go with a team from South America, with Brazil first in line.
As to the teams to go through from group H: Spain and Chile it is.
LGRooney
@Dave: Yeah, shame about Gerrard, Mascherano, and Torres. Of course, Torres was crocked for half the season and the absence of an adequate replacement for Xabi Alonso meant there was little support up front. I know, I know, the work rate of Carragher, Kuyt and Benayoun (who also missed a nice chunk of the season)… blah, blah, blah. The work rate of Carragher meant more when he had more support of a hard man with strategic sense like Hyppia and Heskey was always horribly, horribly underrated as the set-up man (Kuyt looks busier than Heskey but has never performed as well). Additionally, Riise, while always noted as a left back, was the best left mid in ‘Pool history and, like Alonso, shifted easily between attack and defense but with much more speed and less tactical sense.
As for Reina, little argument from me. Cesar had Puyol in front of him. ‘Nough said.
My problem with Spain is their history. I don’t think there is much argument that their side is one of the most talented in the history of the tournament, and they did manage to pull it together for Euro ’08, but they do have a history like Holland’s, i.e., individual egos tend to overtake their collective abilities and see them falter in late stages of tournaments.
I think Argentina have the best shot for two reasons: fairly low expectations vis-a-vis Spain and Brazil, and their front line has the potential to outscore any lack they exhibit in defense. Mascherano could largely cover as a defenseive mid as long as his attitude is well contained and their not left with 10 men on occasion.
I will be supporting England, though, if only to see Gerrard lift a big middle finger to Liverpool’s owners as he bids sayonara on his way to Real Madrid.
Randinho
@Brandon: I would have put Marcos Senna in there as I think they need another defensive midfielder, but he didn’t make the team.
@Dave: Reina is a great keeper and all around good guy, but that still doesn’t explain the fact that Valdes hadn’t even been selected before this year, let alone uncapped.
@Awktalk: Overrated Brazilian team? On what basis? In qualification Switzerland lost to Luxembourg in Zurich, tied Latvia, tied Israel twice, scored more than two goals once (two of those by a defender) in a weak group and you believe they’ll beat Brazil?
@Smedley: Thanks for the kind words.
@dp: That’s it. 32 teams, eight groups of four.@
Andy K: Blame it on the change of coach.
SRW1
Btw, Randinho, a question to a Barcelona supporter concerning the Spanish midfield, or, to be more precise, the Barcelona midfield. With Xavi and Iniesta as the outstanding players you described, why would Cesc Fabregas be so keen to join Barcelona? Just as in the national team, he’s likely to look at quite a bit of bench time when competing with Xavi and Iniesta, and having all three of them in a starting XI seems a tad unbalanced, No?
Lab Partner
@Dave: Reina is twice the goalie because of the rest of ‘pool. Another year and a better team in front of him and he wouldn’t have to be half the goalie he’s had to be this year.
Blue Neponset
Thanks again Randy.
I am going to go out on a limb here and pick Spain to win the whole thing. Hopefully they lose or tie a game in the group stage so they get it out of their system.
Ruud Gullit made a good point about the early games yesterday on ESPN. He was asked why Holland shits the bed every WC and he basically said they play their best games too early in the tournament and aren’t tested.
Anywho, I can not wait for kickoff.
Dave
LGRooney, I’m not so sure. I think under Rafa chronic rot had set in. Take away Pepe, BennyOnion, Monster, Gerrard and Fernando and what have you left?
I agree with you re. Alonso. He should have been handcuffed to the Kop to stop him going.
Guus is my preferred candidate for the new man at the top, but until we get rid of the clowns, I can’t see him wanting to take over. But Roy Hodgson would do.
Any port in a storm, really.
Dave
Anyway, for the WC (kick off in under an hour), my heart says Spain, my head Brazil and my worst nightmares Argentina.
Randy Paul
@SRW1: I think he wants to hoist a trophy and with Arsenal it just doesn’t look likely.
Tattoosydney
Bugger – wrong thread.
LGRooney
@Dave: Hodgson would be a good choice because, after a 7th place finish and what could be a full-on exit of stars, we need someone who knows a thing or two about team development. Hodgson definitely has that.
I think Rafa was/is a good coach but not fantastic. I know it is trite to narrow down such complex processes to one moment but, it really seems to me, their doddering start was ended with their season, with the beach ball incident. It seemed such a quirky blow, and one of those odd things that sits in one’s conscience, allowing plenty of thumb sucking. Then, the injuries started rolling in and they never looked like they would recover. Rafa is certainly not the type to help a team pull itself together in such situations because, lacking the man management skills, he is too aloof to personalities and too concerned with tactics.
Of course, I expect there to be plenty of hand wringing in the coming year from various ‘Pool quarters when Rafa collects any hardware thanks to the establishment left him by Mourinho. Be it Hodgson or anyone else, I just hope there is patience because we have a multi-year project to begin and I firmly see us mid-table until ownership issues are worked out, the academies are tapped, and a new core is built.
Randy Paul
A good start for Bafana Bafana 1-1 against Mexico. First tied game to open a WC since 1986.