I believe that it is largely useless to make assumptions about one elite team’s performance in a tournament like this based upon another elite team’s performance in the same tournament. Because Portugal beat North Korea 7-0 and Brazil only won 2-1 and Brazil beat Ivory Coast 3-1 while Portugal could not muster a goal against them, bear in mind that Brazil had the opportunity to scout Ivory Coast when they played Portugal and Portugal had the same opportunity when North Korea played Brazil. Of course it’s always valuable for a coach to watch videos of games during qualification (friendlies, IMHO are not a good indicator of a team’s potential), it’s far more important to see how a team is playing recently than how they played months ago.
Hugo Almeida looks like he’d be a good bouncer. Perhaps when he retires he should get together with Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Emile Heskey and Adriano to form their own bodyguard firm. They have to be the most physically imposing group of forwards I’ve ever seen.
With today’s victory for Portugal, I believe it’s safe to say that Ivory Coast has an almost insurmountable goal differential to make up against North Korea. They have to beat North Korea by at least ten goals and hope Brazil beats Portugal or hope that Brazil reduces the goal differential significantly in defeating Portugal. Good luck with that. It will be fun to see Drogba playing against North Korea’s defense.
Somebody likes the Jabulani.
One of the benefits of watching a game as a recording is that you have the opportunity to keep an eye on certain players. I watched Valon Behrami before he was sent off and frankly, he was behaving thuggishly all game until his red card. The referee had ample opportunity to card him before and probably should have. That being said, considering that he had just whacked Jean Beausejour in the face seconds before he did the same to Arturo Vidal, I can’t gin up too much sympathy for him, despite Vidal’s dramatic fall.
Chile was offside 9 times. They’ll have to do better than that against Spain. Much better.
Much has been made of the Switzerland’s shutout streak in the World Cup. The last goal they surrendered in the World Cup prior to today was in the 1994 World Cup. If you throw in Euro 1996, Euro 2004 and Euro 2008 as well as the World Cup this year, they have surrendered 14 goals while scoring 10, for a -4 goal differential.
Chile had as many shots on target as Switzerland had shots: 7.
Chile will miss Carlos Carmona who is not eligible for the Spain game due to yellow card accumulation. Chile has been great in controlling the midfield in both games and they’ll need all the help they get against Spain.
David Villa may rue the penalty kick miss, if he doesn’t already.
I’m impressed by Chile’s play, but they have yet to face a team that moves the ball as well as Spain. On the other hand, Spain has yet to face a team that can actually attack consistently. I still believe that may favor Spain a bit based on their performance against Switzerland. Both Spain and Brazil have been frustrated by bunker style defenses.
David Villa’s first goal was gorgeous. As a Barcelona fan, I can’t wait to see him paired with Leo Messi next year.
Tomorrow, due to prior commitments we’re just going to have open threads. I’m back Wednesday with the hope that we can discuss how the USA advanced.
Mark S.
I kind of doubt North Korea TV is going to show that game. Stay tuned, instead, for back to back episodes of Real Housewives of Pyongyang.
Tattoosydney
Parabéns to Portugal! It would be a fun Tuesday morning in Lisbon right now.
beltane
England failing to advance would be good for a few laughs. I also hope South Africa beats France because France sucks this year and it would be nice for the host country to get a win even though they won’t advance.
Vince CA
Can somebody with an Internet accent explain to me why Sanchez’s penalty kick didn’t count? It looked good to me, but what do I know? He was so happy about it, too.
Dan B
@Mark S.: Apparently it was broadcast live after the team put in that not terrible performance against Brazil. Whoops? Bad timing?
Punchy
I have never been so excited to learn why they play all the division games at the same time — to eliminate cheating/coersion. Now it makes sense. This place has been great at teaching the ways of the World Cup. Keep it up.
Splitting Image
I was actually crossing my fingers and hoping that France, England, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Germany would all fail to advance, just for the fun of seeing the whole of western Europe (other than the Netherlands) shut out of the tournament. Not that I hate all those countries, but seriously, how often are we going to see that?
Portugal looks like they’ve gone and ruined things, and I think Spain, Italy and Germany will advance too, but at least three of them need a win to advance and may not be able to get one. (I am assuming Serbia will defeat Australia. Germany may get in with a draw if they don’t.)
Oh well, I’ll settle for France and England going down if I have to.
Violet
What do people think: will Brazil be first or second in their group? And who will they play for their first match? Who would be a better team for them to play and for what reason, ie, easier team, historic matchup, etc.?
I ask because my friend will be in Brazil next week and is hoping to get to get to go to a bar or pub with the Brazilians to watch Brazil play. Any thoughts and input would be helpful so my friend will be a little bit more up to speed.
And in other World Cup news, I’m getting some work done on the house and have to schedule things around Mexico’s World Cup match tomorrow. The workmen informed me they would not be showing up in the morning. I told them it was no problem. Everyone was happy that I seemed to understand the importance of the match. Smiles all around. LOL.
MattR
@beltane: As much as I would like to see France lose, I need that group order to stay as it currently is (Uruguay, Mexico, France, South Africa)
SiubhanDuinne
@Vince CA:
What is an Internet accent?
::experiments::
IÑtërnÊt
ïnTè®ñét
Calouste
@Violet:
First. Don’t see Portugal beating them.
Possible opponents are Spain, Switzerland and Chile. Switzerland will probably be the easiest and definitely the most flavorless match. Before the tournament Spain-Brazil was thought of as a possible final. Brazil and Chile have the normal continental rivalry spiced up by an abandoned 1993 qualification match where the Chilean goalkeeper faked a fireworks injury (Chile was subsequently banned from the 1994 and 1998 World Cups, and the goalie was banned for life.)
Andy K
Funniest moment of the tournament, so far: Gerard Pique getting
macedblasted in the face with “magic spray” by Spain’s trainer.Violet
@Calouste:
A fake fireworks injury? Really? That’s kind of funny, except it’s sad. I figured there would be the neighborly rivalry, but it sounds like it’s got some added spice with Chile’s banning and all.
As far as Portugal beating Brazil, I think it will depend what Brazilian team shows up. They were kind of lackluster with North Korea, but then no one knew what to expect from North Korea. I don’t really think Portugal will beat Brazil, but you never know.
MattR
@Violet: I would expect Brazil to get at least a tie against Portugal on Friday which is all they need to win the group. If they do win the group they will play on Monday the 28th against the runner up from group H. If they somehow lose to Portugal and finish 2nd in the group, they will play the winner of group H on Tuesday the 29th.
In group H, I would say Spain took back control although they still need to beat Chile to win the group. Chile needs a tie or better to win the group. Switzerland could still win the group too if they beat Honduras by a lot and Spain beats Chile by a little. That is the one group that is most up in the air for both spots. Honduras can still technically advance if the stars align perfectly for them.
I would actually say Brazil’s best path into the semifinals would be to lose to Portugal and end up second in the group. It would make it more likely that they will face Spain in the first round of knockouts, but they would also likely avoid the Netherlands in the quarterfinals. (Of course this also means they would run into Argentina in the semifinals instead of the finals)
burnspbesq
Guy I really feel sorry for right about now: Laurent Blanc. Domenech is handing him a huge festering sore of a team.
Morbo
Would’ve loved to have been watching the game at this bar.
Violet
@MattR:
So you think it would be strategically smart for Brazil to come in second in their group? That’s interesting. That actually fits my friend’s schedule a bit better, if Brazil plays on Tuesday instead of Monday. But either way the whole office is shutting down for the match. As you can imagine.
mcd410x
Arsenal, Barcelona, Brazil? How about the Cowboys or Steelers? Yankees?
MattR
@Violet: If it was a country other than Brazil, I would say yes. While Spain is the better team on paper, Holland is playing better at the World Cup and I think they are the more difficult opponent for Brazil. However, for Brazil, simply reaching the semifinals is not the goal. They want to win the whole thing and will probably have to face both Argentina and Holland at some point to do so. So they might as well keep up the momentum and not worry about who they play when. Most likely, they will come up with a plan to rest a few players and they wont let the score of the game alter that.
EDIT: How long are they in Brazil? The quarterfinal game would be either July 2nd or 3rd (depending on which day the first round game is) and the semifinals are the 6th and 7th.
Calouste
@MattR:
There’s another disadvantage for Brazil to finishing first in their group. Their last group match is at sea level, and if they win, the next match is in Jo’burg at 5750 feet against a team that played their last match at altitude. Although it isn’t that much better if they become second. The same situation occurs, but in the quarter finals. It hasn’t really affected games so far, but breaks between games were 4 or 5 days, and the effect might be more pronounced if a match goes to extra time.
Violet
@MattR:
Unfortunately, only one week. So this next game is the only one my friend will have the chance to see there. Well, other WC matches, but this is the only one with Brazil in it.
Andy K
@MattR:
You’re probably right about the Dutch- I think that; defensively, they’re better suited to tying up Brazil’s attack than is Spain (although I’ll say that Spain would be even with Holland on that account had Del Bosque included Marcos Senna on this team).
That said, I won’t be surprised if the Dutch don’t disappear in a puff of smoke during the first round of the knockout phase. They’ve been doing that for a while now.
wengler
@burnspbesq
The difference is that Laurent Blanc gets and commands respect from the players while Raymond Domenech does not.
Mark
Randinho –
The way to evaluate the performance of Portugal-DPRK vs Brazil-DPRK is to look at possession and/or passing while the game is tied. Once a goal (or two) is scored, everything falls apart.
ibid
Yeah, and up until the Brazil game, North Korea hadn’t allowed a World Cup goal since 1966.
But really, don’t you think this is a bit misleading? Euro 1996 and 2004 accounts for a minus 8 differential. In the 2006, 2008, and 2010 tournaments they have allowed 4 goals in 9 games for a plus 4 differential, including clean sheets against France, Portugal, and Spain. Yeah, if anyone is marveling at the fact that they hadn’t allowed a WC goal since 1994, you could point to their less impressive Euro record (or you could just point out that they weren’t even qualifying for the major tournaments between 1996 and 2004), but I don’t think anyone’s really been doing that. The point is that they’ve been impressive since 2006. In fact, the last goal they gave up in 1994 was in the 86th minute of their second round loss to Spain, so even when you add the four minutes from 1994 to the record scoreless streak, it’s still primarily a record from 2006/2010.
Randinho
@mcd410x: Not in a soccer thread.
Randinho
@ibid:
My larger point is that they don’t score much at all. Their attack is weak and has been for years.
@Mark: Agreed.
@Calouste: It was actually 1990 an 1994 that they were banned. Thye qualified in 1998, tied all group games moving to the second round where Brazil eliminated them 4 to 1.
Vince CA
@SiubhanDuinne: The announcers of that game had some English or South African Accent, which wasn’t as bad as the Irish accent in the late game. i just want someone to explain to me why it needed to hit (or not hit) the downfield player to be a valid goal. It was a penalty kick, so Sanchez wasn’t offsides, right?
Bill Murray
@Vince CA: there were no penalty kicks in the game. Sanchez’ non-goal came off a free kick. Sanchez was not offside. There were three Chilean players in offside positions, one of whom was directly in line between Sanchez and the Swiss GK. This player was deemed by the assistant referee (and the center referee) to be interfering with play and was flagged as being offside.
Vince CA
@Bill Murray: Thank you! Another dumb question, what’s the difference between a free kick and a penalty kick? This community rocks, btw.
Bill Murray
@Vince CA: a free kick is an unimpeded kick that occurs due to a foul. This can be direct (can go into the goal with no other touch than the kick) or indirect (must be touched after the initial free kick to score). Direct kicks are more common. Indirect kicks are signaled by the center official having an arm raised.
A penalty kick is a specific type of direct free kick in which the foul occurred within the defensive team’s 18 yard box. This results in a shot from the penalty spot, which is 12 yards from goal. The goalkeeper can not move forward off the goal line until the ball is played by the penalty taker, but can move side to side. Typically about 75% of penalty kicks during a game are converted. In the knockout rounds of tournaments, penalty kicks are used to determine a winner if the teams are tied after regulation time and two 15-minute overtime periods.
The third primary type of in-game kick is the goal kick. This occurs after the ball crosses the defensive team’s goal line, outside of the goal and was last touched by the offensive team. The defensive team then gets a free kick from the six yard box