I’d say this is reasonably accurate:
1. His overall concern — his number one concern — is with West Virginia and its politics. He wants to go by the book in terms of the election to make sure that no flank is exposed and no one can accuse him of rigging the process for his own benefit.
2. That’s because he wants to win the seat, and any taint on the process would hinder his ability to become senator.
3. He is aware that Democratic governors do not have the best of records when it comes to appointing seat-fillers and then figuring out and executing succession elections, so he wants to make sure that the person he picks will serve the state well, be loyal to him, and set him up for a fairly easy election, either in 2010 or 2012.
4. He doesn’t really care for President Obama or the administration that much; I say this based on conversations with people who have spoken with the governor about the subject. So he does not believe that he has an obligation to do anything to further Obama’s agenda if it in any way conflicts with his own.
5. He will cast himself in the mold of a Joe Lieberman, independent-type Democrat regardless of when he manages to reach the Senate (assuming he does).
If he runs, I don’t see how he loses. Once elected, he’ll be the kind of Senator that drives progressives insane.
freelancer
A Democrat?
FlipYrWhig
Maybe this is a stupid question, but why isn’t the solution to the placeholder appointment simply tapping Byrd’s chief of staff? Isn’t that what they did in Delaware when Biden was elevated to VP? That way you get a Senator who would vote like Byrd would, but wouldn’t aspire to running him- or herself.
MikeJ
And yet the Republicans will still cast him as Nancy Peolsi’s demon lover who wants to create gay human-animal hybrids to give abortions to.
Sentient Puddle
@FlipYrWhig:
That would involve Manchin giving a shit about getting a replacement appointed as soon as possible.
Chad S
Better to have a blue dog dem that you can negotiate with than a republican who won’t even return your calls.
merrinc
About a million years ago when I was an idealistic poli sci major at Fairmont State, my uncle (who was friends with the Manchins) predicted that Joe, who’d just won election to the House of Delegates, would be POTUS someday. I laughed at him. That Manchin may even make it to the national level has me feeling…old. And discouraged.
Yes, I know he’s the best we can get out of WV these days. Doesn’t mean I have to like it.
The Democrats can’t get their shit together and Republicans can’t stop making shit up. I think longingly of retiring in socialist Europe.
Nutella
He’s negotiating with Beelzebub now!
Ailuridae
Manchin won’t be Rockefeller but he’ll be far less of an ass hole than Bayh, Lincoln or Landrieu and will never ever approach Nelson Lieberman et al. So I guess he’ll be a pain like Jim Webb or Warner or Pryor. For a Senator from WV I am fine with that.
FlipYrWhig
I fully believe that Joe Lieberman has mold to spare. Mildew, too.
Lolis
I hate Manchin already.
Nick
In a state where DEMOCRATIC voters knocked out a Blue Dog for a teabagger in their own primary, a Senator Manchin is a big win in my book
FlipYrWhig
@Lolis: I’m already tired of waiting for Jane and Glenn to set up “America’s Next Top Senate Primary Candidate” phase two. Teach that corporatist bastard a lesson about the power of the “netroots”!
Michael
@Chad S:
Jane and crew would be much happier with a Rethug in the spot. Taking out red state blue dogs has been a passion of hers.
Zifnab
@FlipYrWhig: Like we taught Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas?
That’s not to say I wasn’t a big Bill Halter fan, or that I didn’t think he would have had a better chance than Blanche in the general. But after watching the netroots go down to Lieberman and then this… well, we’ve clearly still got a long way to go.
Adam Collyer
@Ailuridae:
At least two of these Senators are perfectly acceptable Democrats. Webb and Warner represent their state well. Virginia is more than just NoVa, and progressives need to respect that if they want Democrats to become elected.
There’s been some handwringing about Warner in progressive circles over the past year. I’m genuinely surprised. He’s been a relatively reliable, moderate Democrat. When he was winning elections as an executive, GOS raved about him.
Warner was my first pick for President before he backed out of the race. I was still hoping that Obama would pick him for VP, even though he was running for Senate. I still think his strengths lie as an executive rather than as a member of the world’s slowest deliberative body. Met him two summers ago at a political event for young Dems in NYC. My father came with me, and at 70 was obviously the oldest face in the crowd. Not only did Warner point him out during his remarks, but he made it a point to come say hello and have a pretty serious conversation afterwards. The guy is fantastic.
FlipYrWhig
@Zifnab: Yeah, I was being sarcastic. I actually liked the Halter candidacy because it wasn’t so much left-vs.-right as populist-vs.-Big Biz. But that also means that a Sen. Halter would probably be much more like a Sen. Tester or Webb or, probably, Manchin than his netrootsy champions had begun to imagine.
FlipYrWhig
@Adam Collyer: I feel like Warner is a bit like the ’80s version of Gore. I moved to VA in 2005 to catch the tail end of the Warner buzz and I _was_ hoping he’d make a bigger splash in the Senate. But it’s sort of understandable that he hasn’t.
The Senator I thought would be a pain in the ass like Lincoln or Landrieu but who has surprised me with his solidity is Casey.
Zifnab
@FlipYrWhig: I honestly can’t imagine him being much worse than Lincoln without being a Republican himself. Tester and Webb haven’t been perfect, but they’ve been miles ahead of Nelson or Lieberman. I never have to listen to DKos bemoaning the sole hold-out Senator from Virginia/Montana on health care or a jobs bill or unemployment extension.
FlipYrWhig
@Zifnab: Webb got close a few times on HCR. But, yes, I saw Halter as a potential part of that cohort, and I envision Manchin with the same profile. I think Conway in KY is similar too, but I know even less about him.
The much more aggravating group is Lincoln-Landrieu-Nelson-Baucus-Bayh et al. But neither group is liberal the way people in the blogosphere would like to see all the Obama initiatives being.
And Lieberman is sui generis.
Davis X. Machina
The problem with American politics is not a shortage of parties, but a shortage of labels.
There are at least three parties in the Senate, from which a governing coalition is from time to time is cobbled together.
There are:
A. the Democratic senators who are Democrats,
B. the Democratic senators who are Republicans
C. the Republican senators who are Republicans.
There used to be D. Republican Senators who are Democrats — Javits, Brooke, Hatfield, Pell, Stafford — but no longer.
And that’s why we can’t have nice things.
maus
@Chad S:
Does that really happen? The republicans that won’t answer your calls don’t torpedo your legislation.
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Nick: The problem is, what Democratic ideas, meaning parts of the party plank, does Manchin actually believe in? Is he just going to be Don Blankenship’s representative in the Senate?
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@FlipYrWhig: Do you know why people hate Lincoln-Landrieu-Nelson-Baucus-Bayh? It’s because they spew right-wing talking points.
Adam Collyer
@FlipYrWhig:
I can see your point. I was a student in PA during the run-up of the Casey election campaign. Always liked him. Seems very down to Earth. He’s definitely not one to rock the boat.
I think Casey is one of the guys that got a raw deal because he’s a pro-life Democrat. I know that’s a wedge issue for a lot of people, but I respect his beliefs. Again, he’s a strong, moderate Democrat who fits his constituency. If you’ve ever seen Democrats between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, he’s a mirror image. One of the good guys.
Zifnab
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: Well, that and they’ve got a shitty voting record. Nelson was the sole hold-out on the last unemployment extension. Just to be a little dick. Baucus repeatedly hamstrung and held up the health care bill, dragging out the committee process for six extra months, just so he could play footsie with Grassley and Snowe. Let’s not pretend these guys were all just microphone monkeys pulling a Reverse Specter. Their votes were regularly in contention.
Honestly, I’m curious how Crist would function in the current Senate climate. I can’t see him lining up repeatedly with the Republicans, but he’s still a pretty big corporate tool. I figure he’d vote like a Blue Dog, but talk up the bipartisanship game like an Obama or a Clinton.
FlipYrWhig
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: I’m confused about the tone of your remark… Is that supposed to be a challenge to me? Because I agree that they do that. And I would only add that they tend towards business and against populism, which makes them ideologically obnoxious as well as rhetorically unhelpful.
But in case I wasn’t clear I mostly meant that there are essentially subsets within subsets here. There’s the divide between liberals and non-liberals; but within the non-liberals there are the two groups I’d call populists and… um.. I’m not fond of the Kos/FDL-favored “corporatists,” but let’s just say that.
So my guess is that Halter is non-liberal and populist. Others fitting that description include Tester and Webb and maybe Casey. More? I wonder if Manchin is one of them.
Then there are the non-liberals who are corporatist. They include most of the blogosphere’s whipping boys and girls. Lincoln, Landrieu, etc. To my earlier list, add Carper.
But if you’re doing a head count of the Democrats and wondering why the Democrats have impressive numbers but aren’t producing a sufficiently liberal product, it’s because neither one of these arms is liberal.
I think I was probably repeating myself. Apologies if so.
FlipYrWhig
@Zifnab: Good point about Crist. I guess I imagine him as part of a bloc with Snowe and Collins, but you’re right that if he’s an independent and stays that way he wouldn’t be so easily brought to heel by McConnell or DeMint. If he doesn’t caucus with either side, what kinds of committee assignments could he get? Maybe it’s all subject to negotiation.
Dr. Morpheus
Hurray! Lieberdouch II, The Quickening!
Karen
I think the biggest problem the Democrats have is that it’s the party that is cobbled together out of lots of jagged pieces that were only able to stay together because of the strategy to open the party up to Blue Dogs and conservative Democrats, taking on those values.
The problem is, it was just a temporary fix and unfortunately, President Obama is both the beneficiary and the victim of this.
The far left’s support of Blue Dog Obama was conditional in a way that Bill Clinton or even Hillary Clinton’s was not. The PUMAs were willing to swallow their racism (remember, the first Birther was Philip Berg, a friend of Hillary Clinton) as long as Obama towed the line. The other part of the far left was willing to accept Obama against McCain but some of them may not have read Obama’s record or listened to what Obama said in his speeches. Their support was conditional as well so when he “failed” them, they were no longer motivated to vote and were all too willing to let the next Presidency or even the next Senatorial or Congressional election go to a Republican to prove a point,
The far right’s support was also conditional. They chose Obama as the lesser of two evils but were only willing to do that as long as Obama wasn’t “radical” or too “liberal.” There were a lot of racists there, especially in the South, but Sarah Palin scared them so much that they voted for Obama out of panic. But like the far left, the minute Obama “failed” them, they were willing to toss him overboard.
Then there is the rest of the Democratic party, people in the middle. They knew what they were getting when they voted for Obama. A lot of them had always voted against the other side instead of voting for their side so this was no different. The middle, moderate Democrat is a silent group because there really isn’t room for them anymore. Like the moderate Republicans, the moderate Democrats have been voted out of primaries and the winners swing to extremes either direction.
The funny thing is, what is a far left Democrat now used to be considered to be a moderate Democrat. The middle used to be considered the far right wing. And the far right wing used to be Republicans.
The people in the middle knew what they were getting
The Truffle
@Chad S: Wasn’t Byrd a moderate to conservative Dem?
IronyAbounds
It really is quite simple, we are fucked as a country. Republican and Blue Dog Democratic ideas have rear-ended this country without providing us with even a dab of vasoline. Yet, they are going to win big time at the polls in November. I realize Barbara Boxer, while reliably progressive, is no giant of the Senate, she is behind Carly Fiorina in the latest poll. That’s right, she’s behind Carly “I fucked up HP and yet I am running on bringing my business skills to the Senate” Fiorina. In California. Also, in my 10 second snippit of Hannity tonight, I had the pleasure of hearing the former half-term Governor of Alaska scolding Obama for not not working hard enough. We were a great nation once. No longer.
Karen
@IronyAbounds:
You just said the magic words: win big time in November. Now if that’s the case in a so called liberal stronghold like California, can you imagine how it is in red states, especially in the South?
cmorenc
@John Cole
Better that than a Republican in the mold of DeMint or Inhofe. At least he’ll vote with the Democratic caucus much of the time, even while being ass-dick prickly about not voting with it all the time, rather than being an idiotically reflexive “no” vote ALL the time.
I’d rather be drive crazy by a democrat inclined to intermittent apostacy than driven over the cliff of ruin by a republican inclined to actual insanity.
This doesn’t mean at all that I heart Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, or Ben Fucking Nelson, or that it would bother me a bit if all three got taken out behind the barn and got horsewhipped to within an inch of their life for their asshat corrupt antics.
Honus
@merrinc: I’m from Wetzel county and I worked in Charleston from 1995-2000, and saw Joe a good bit. I think he’s smarter and more liberal than most of you think. I believe he would be far superior to Lieberman, and not nearly so obstructionist on issues like HCR and financial reform.
He has a complicated political terrain to negotiate to keep a democratic senate seat in a state that has voted overwhelmingly for GWB and McCain in recent years, and where the daughter of an indicted and imprisoned former republican governor is the second most popular politician. If Joe doesn’t pull this off, you are probably looking at another Jim DeMint or Jim Bunning type in the senate, because, unfortunately that is becoming the demographic there.
Honus
@Ailuridae: Don’t forget where you came from. Would you trade Webb for George Allen? Just four years ago, before he imploded, Allen was referred to around here as the 800lb gorilla of Virginia politics, and lock for perennial reelection, as well as the the original New Reagan. We got him elected after midnight by only 3000 votes. Other statewide officials include Ken Cuccinelli and Bob “Confederate History” McDonnell.
Honus
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: You really don’t know nothin’ except Don Blankenship = West Virginia, do you?