Palin’s candidate — Karen Handel — has lost to Huck’s — Nathan Deal — in the Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary.
Contra Silver and Sullivan, I don’t think Palin has much of a chance in the Republican 2012 primary, but there might be something to the idea that if enough Republican office holders feel beholden to her, then she may rack up enough endorsements to have a credibility that, say, Giuliani (the 2008 candidate she most closely resembles, IHMO) did not have. It probably does hurt her when candidates she endorses lose, because it makes her endorsement seem less valuable, and thus may make winning candidates she endorsed feel that they owe her less.
Here’s a general question: how much do endorsements from elected officials matter in a presidential primary? Obama got a lot of endorsements from other Senators in 2008. Did that matter much? I know that a lot was made of the endorsement he got from Ted Kennedy, but he did relatively poorly in the primaries that came immediately after the endorsement.
Lev
Endorsements don’t matter too much, unless it’s by someone who actually has some electoral machinery to help you out. Senators generally don’t, since they only run every six years. Governors do, which is why you want endorsements from them. Obama won Virginia in the primary and general elections in 2008 thanks largely to Tim Kaine’s early endorsement.
Palin’s smartest endorsement was of Nikki Haley in South Carolina, who will be the state’s governor and might be able to help Sarah out during that state’s critical primary. But didn’t Mitt endorse Haley too? So maybe not so much.
jeffreyw
90% of all endorsements are worthless, and 90% of the remaining 10% are worthless, too. Subtract from the remaining all your coworkers, personal friends, and your Momma and you are at the margin of error. And your Momma lied to keep from hurting your feelings.
jeffreyw
Thread needs more sammich.
Sentient Puddle
The endorsement I’d actually look at in this case is Crist’s endorsement of McCain. There was all kinds of talk about how Giuliani was banking on that endorsement to win the Florida primary, but I’m not sure if it would have made much of a difference because (a) McCain had so much momentum at that time that most people just said “fuck it, he’s won,” and (b) Giuliani was a pretty terrible campaigner. So really, endorsements tend to strike me more as insider politics, where politicians are jockeying for important appointments or cabinet positions.
I know Markos Moulitsas puts a good bit of weight to endorsements from mayors, though. Theory there being that they’re close enough to the ground that they do have good GOTV machines.
Alwhite
Been involved in politics my whole life – got if from my dad. Way too many primary voters are “low information” types; they select on something they heard or something the candidate did or said. For them having the approval of a person they like for whatever reason will get them to vote for a candidate. If Palin endorsed Stalin for Gov there are a number of these people that will vote for Stalin without a thought other than “If he’s OK with Princess Sparkle he’s OK with me!”. Same for Lefties (if only I could think of a Leftist version of Palin I’d say the same about them).
James E. Powell
I cannot remember any recent presidential primaries where an endorsement mattered with the voters.
The value of an endorsement by a big shot is that the big shot’s money people will write checks to the endorsed candidate. If the big shot is a governor or other official with a corps of campaign people, it will bring them.
If Palin wants to have friends, she will have to raise money for candidates. Endorsements are for shit if they don’t bring money.
Adam Lang
I read that as ‘contra Gilbert and Sullivan’ and was all geared up for another musical number.
So disappointed.
Roger Moore
I’m not sure if it’s so much an anticipation of quid pro quo as it is a way for the endorser to act like a big shot. If people accept Sarah Palin’s endorsement (or Newt Gingrich’s) endorsement as a big deal, they’re tacitly accepting that her opinions matter. If people are going to vote for candidate X because she’s one of Sarah’s Mama Grizzlies, they’re likely to vote for Sarah when her turn comes. Of course if people keep rejecting the Mama Grizzlies for establishment Republicans- or worse, if they get thrashed by the Democrats in November- then it’s a sign that her opinion isn’t important.
The Bearded Blogger
IHMO?
The candidate she resembles In Her Moronic Ostentatiousness?
In Her Militant Obtuseness?
Lev
@Adam Lang: This ain’t no Aaron Sorkin show!
The Bearded Blogger
@jeffreyw: That looks mighty good. What kind of bread is that?
Sentient Puddle
@Adam Lang: Don’t worry, I got you covered here.
mistermix
As important as the win/lose tally is the money. Palin’s endorsement won’t have much pull unless it brings in money – if candidates who get her endorsement have better fundraising because of it, or if Palin’s PAC could hand out money, then she’d have some pull.
I haven’t seen evidence of a fundraising bump, but I haven’t looked very hard. From what I can tell, her PAC doesn’t raise serious coin and it mainly pays her enormous legal bills and other expenses.
Brachiator
Endorsements are an indirect indicator of a candidate’s connectedness to people in the party. They don’t mean much by themselves.
In all of the huffington and puffington about Palin, little has been reported about her acting as an actual, politician, building coalitions, socking away favors, laying the groundwork for an actual political run.
The assumption is that she is a hapless rube who has just happened to charm a portion of the ignoramus Republican base with her smile and eye rolls.
Palin remains a political flyweight in terms of competence and knowledge, but there does appear to be a core of ambition in her snowbilly heart.
Here’s a question. Everyone assumes that Palin will be used to raise money from the GOP. But who might she be able to call upon in the GOP to shake the money tree in her behalf?
This is where endorsements mean something.
debit
@The Bearded Blogger: Seconded. And I want to know what’s in the bowl.
QuaintIrene
What’d she tell that “Worst governor ever” lady up in Alaska? That she quit the job so she could work to get conservatives elected.
How’s that workin’ for ya, Sarah?
Seanly
but but but Sarah represents all of Amerika! Piper/Bristol/Trig proclaimed it!
Sarah Palin will never be president. She has so little class. I hate to be an elitist, but the President should be a cut above the average guy on the street. And definitely more than the “nasty cheerleader grown into a horrible woman”
I don’t think many voters will respond well to Sarah come primaries. And there are probably dozens of establishment flacks at all levels who hate her guts and will do much behind the scenes to ruin her run.
Sarah’s best option is to ride her current popularity for a couple more years, make truck loads of cash off the rubes & live out her days in her tacky McMansion.
Thomas
I think Lev hit it right on the button –endorsements in national elections are worth little more than the ground game the endorser is willing to put to work for the candidate.
The Bearded Blogger
@Seanly: As I read your comment, I got the premonition that Sarah is going to age pretty quickly in the next couple of years…. look for either Wrinkly Sarah or Botox Overdose Sarah tom ake her appeareance by 2012
SiubhanDuinne
Such an awesome awesome title, DougJ. You did it again!
GregB
Well, I saw Bristol Palin defending her mother and she said that Sarah is fighting for the freedom for “all of America” now.
So deal with it bitches.
(Grabs beers, opens door, slides down chute)
Comrade Dread
I’ve never, ever voted for a candidate based on a political or celebrity endorsement.
But, of course, I don’t get the starbursts, vapours, and funny feeling in my dick when I see St. Sarah the She-Grizzly.
El Cid
Palin had to have gotten some $$$ outta the deal.
Joey Maloney
@Seanly:
We’ve already had “nasty cheerleader grown into a horrible man”.
Chris G.
Unsuccessful candidates can still be a strong asset for someone running for president — Jimmy Carter called every losing Democrat on election night 1974, and those folks remembered he was the only presidential candidate who’d done so when he was putting together his campaign for 1976. I believe Obama also used losing candidates from 2004 and 2006 to help him build his primary campaign organization. Candidates who lose, especially in a close election, still have names of supporters, financial supporters, volunteer rolls, an e-mail list, etc., and an endorsement from the candidate is something many of those folks will notice.
The Bearded Blogger
@debit: Looks like Dijon Mustard….
GASP!
He’s a liberal!!!!
BombIranForChrist
@Alwhite:
I think you nailed it. Endorsements can be a heuristic for picking candidates.
I also think that if a candidate is perceived as being weak in a certain area, a well-timed endorsement from someone perceived as strong in a certain area can help, for the same basic reason. People don’t have a lot of time to delve into the nitty gritty, and they use heuristics to help 1) learn more about a candidate and / or 2) alleviate any concerns they may have.
Course, this can work the other way, too. If Zombie Nixon had endorsed Obama, I may have been concerned.
jeffreyw
@The Bearded Blogger: I made some bread yesterday from a classic white bread recipe and formed the loaves as you see here.
jeffreyw
@debit: Homemade mayo and stone ground mustard. The mayo from a recipe here.
debit
@jeffreyw: Thanks! It looks delicious. :e-mails link to self for reference when home:
Jared86
The primary following the Kennedy endorsement was the Super Tuesday primary, in which Obama ended up winning more delegates and more states than Hillary. After that, Obama went on to win his 11 state victory streak.
How do you figure “Obama did poorly” after the Kennedy endorsement?
stuckinred
Rostenkowski died.
artem1s
@Seanly:
I hate to be an elitist, but the President should be a cut above the average guy on the street. And definitely more than the “nasty cheerleader grown into a
horrible womancoke head”worked for W!
Indie Tarheel
I don’t think endorsements matter. If you try to find out where someone stands on the issues, it shouldn’t matter all that much whether Sen. Stuffy McStuffedshirt thinks one candidate or the other is the greatest thing since sliced bread.
__
Also, if one is simply looking for somebody they’d like to have a beer with, or who they think has, um, “bonerfides” à la Lowry, why would it matter whether Sen. Stuffedshirt was running around all giggity too?
SIA
I don’t know how much affect, if any, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Karen Handel had, but because of it, I am glad Handel lost. Don’t know who is the easier candidate for Barnes to beat. As far as I’m concerned, Deal is just Sonny Per-doo II.
eric k
In a primary Governors and mayors of significant cities matter in as much as they have organizations that provide mailing lists and volunteers to do leg work.
dan
I’d argue that in the ’08 Democratic primaries, endorsements very much *did* matter because winning the candidacy required superdelegate votes. Some of Obama’s well-timed endorsements brought with them superdelegate votes and also signaled to undecided superdelegates that the party was beginning to coalesce behind Obama.
I suspect that in other circumstances endorsements have mariginal utility at best unless they can affect the ground game for an election.
SoINeedAName
Moose? Pit bulls? Mama Grizzlies?!?
That may be just fine for a ZOO …
But it’s a terrible idea for a nation!
rashomon
The Kennedy endorsement had a significant impact. I was calling California voters in the weeks before the primary and it was like night and day…voters on the fence swung hard for Obama. He didn’t win CA, but I’m very confident it helped set up Super Tuesday as a draw (with Obama winning more delegates) to set up the mid-February run.
So, yes, most endorsements don’t matter…but the 2008 Dem primary was a unique circumstance.
rashomon
The Kennedy endorsement had a significant impact. I was calling California voters in the weeks before the primary and it was like night and day…voters on the fence swung hard for Obama. He didn’t win CA, but I’m very confident it helped set up Super Tuesday as a draw (with Obama winning more delegates) to set up the mid-February run.
So, yes, most endorsements don’t matter…but the 2008 Dem primary was a unique circumstance.