Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

It’s a doggy dog world.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

You are here: Home / Politics / Domestic Politics / Just Start Drinking Heavily

Just Start Drinking Heavily

by | 132 Comments

This post is in: 

Didn’t need to read this:

Although not unexpected, the news flow is about to take a more negative tone starting with the existing home sales report on August 23rd. We’ve been discussing this for some time … and I’d like to highlight just a few pieces of forthcoming data:

# The existing home sales report will show that sales collapsed in July (this is showing up in all the regional reports).

# The existing home months-of-supply will jump to double digits.

# House prices are probably falling again, although this might not show up in the repeat sales indexes until September or October (this data is released with a lag).

# On August 27th, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. This will probably show a significant downward revision from the preliminary estimate of 2.4% annualized growth. The downward revision is due to lower construction spending than the BEA initially estimated, less contribution from inventory adjustments, and the June surge in exports.

# The unemployment rate will probably start ticking up again soon (or the participation rate will fall further).

But what about the deficit and inflation?

Reader Interactions

132Comments

  1. 1.

    demo woman

    Now is the time to cut spending. Sometimes I wish they would have let the banks fail. I have no idea how to get through to real Americans that our past policies haven’t helped.
    Also, too Michelle Obama went to Spain with 40 friends.

  2. 2.

    scav

    John John, you’ve been at the CR again and you know what that does to your liver. At the very least you should try to enjoy yourself while giving it a workout.

  4. 4.

    Downpuppy

    Banks, insurance companies, prison guards, spies, security guards –

    How many people do you know who produce anything?

    Started hitting the zinfandel around 4 today. Had to stop, because there are presents to wrap.

  5. 5.

    Violet

    @demo woman:

    Also, too Michelle Obama went to Spain with 40 friends.

    And the President didn’t force his family to swim in the Gulf soon enough or long enough or within shot of the media cameras or something.

  6. 6.

    demo woman

    @Violet: Yes tax cuts for the rich because they pay for themselves and cut spending because folks need to tighten their belt. Those lazy sob’s on unemployment need to just take lesser paying jobs, also, too.

    It might be a good time to get rid of the minimum wage cuz that would get our economy going again.

    lol..One network had a scientist on discussing whether or not it was wise to allow your daughter to swim in the gulf. Bad Daddy!

  8. 8.

    jwb

    @Violet: Yup, and the rest of us can just shut up and eat our broccoli or learn to go without food for a couple of days. The ruling class ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.

  9. 9.

    Pancake

    Sounds like a pretty convincing case for getting rid of the Democrats in Congress come the November elections, and start on replacing the current President in 2012.

  10. 10.

    Jack The Second

    It occurs to me that weakening the constraints on immigration and rapidly adding several million people to the country’s population would drive up demand in the housing and rental markets.

  11. 11.

    Left Coast Tom

    This is really a reiteration of what CR’s been predicting for months now, a first-half 2010 inventory boost followed by a slowdown that, while not a “double-dip”, would seem indistinguishable from one.

    In part, his “no double dip” forecast isn’t necessarily good news, it’s based upon past “double dips” being caused by a drop in residential construction which he doesn’t think _can_ drop at this point.

  12. 12.

    jl

    I wouldn’t expect to hear from Cole for awhile. He has by now surely seen CR’s reasons for expecting higher unemployment rate soon, and the inflation graph, and is probably well on his way to getting completely sfaced.

    Why do I expect the unemployment rate to increase?
    by CalculatedRisk on 8/14/2010 05:21:00 PM
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/why-do-i-expect-unemployment-rate-to.html

    Inflation Graph
    by CalculatedRisk on 8/14/2010 10:54:00 PM
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/inflation-graph.html

  14. 14.

    The next to last samurai

    I think jack makes a good point. Also too if john is depressed now just wait till the commercial real estate bust hits.

  17. 17.

    walt

    This subject obsesses me since I see the effects of foreclosures and unemployment all around me (I live in one of the epicenters of the real-estate crash, Phoenix). It’s been clear to me since mid 2008 that this crash was unlike any other and that there wouldn’t be a “recovery” since real estate was the last bubble left in a hollowed-out economy.

    Up until 2007, the economy here was “hot” but the absence of any underlying productive sector was the telltale sign. Once the bubble burst, there was nothing to catch the people living off credit cards and HELOCs. Now, they’re living off unemployment and abandoning their overpriced houses (2/3 of all mortgages in Phoenix are “underwater”).

    It’s doubly ironic and very painful that the Obama team didn’t catch the tectonic nature of this crash. Instead, it was as if standard Keynesian stimulus was presented as the one-size-fits-all solution. But there is no simple solution. We will struggle for years – and possibly decades – trying to invent an economy that works for everyone and not just Wall Street. Phoenix is dead in the water, having banked entirely on endless growth as its economic strategy. We’re an outsized dinosaur with a pea brain and really no idea how to survive in this radically different world.

  18. 18.

    13th Generation

    @pancake

    see my comment on the previous thread about the new crop of concern trolls around here. Maybe you’re snarky, but I doubt it.

  19. 19.

    Steve

    @Pancake: I agree. If you’re going through a rocky period with your second wife, the obvious solution is to go back to your first wife ASAP!

  20. 20.

    BombIranForChrist

    Look, folks. It’s time to cut rich people taxes to 0%.

    The rich will then use that money to buy up all these houses.

    If we don’t do this, then DIRTY FUCKING HIPPIES will buy up these houses with WEED (aka The Pot) and convert them all into mosques dedicated to the Ur-Weedian Mohammad, monkey god, abortionist.

    You were warned.

  22. 22.

    Svensker

    @13th Generation:

    see my comment on the previous thread about the new crop of concern trolls around here. Maybe you’re snarky, but I doubt it.

    Pancake is a shit-ass troll whose name makes fun of Rachel Corrie. He has nothing of value to add to anything, not even the fertilizer pile.

  23. 23.

    BR

    @BR:

    Since the edit time expired, I thought I should mentioned that the talk I linked to is worth giving a chance – I know some folks are averse to anything related to a talk like that. But the speaker really knows what she’s talking about and explains it in a way that really informs without grandstanding. I learned a number of things that I feel like I should have known but didn’t about the economy, finance, etc.

  25. 25.

    Violet

    @Svensker:
    At least if we bomb more countries we’ll need more people in the military. Jobs!

    In all seriousness, the nephew of friends of mine is considering joining the military because he simply can’t get a job. He’s got a high school diploma, a wife and a baby, and cannot find work. They’ve been living with his family, but they live in a high unemployment area of the country. They’re thinking of moving to live with my friends because they live in an area with better job prospects, but the only thing that seems sure as far as income goes is joining the military. So far no decisions have been made, but it’s definitely in the mix and not because of “patriotism” or “love of country” or wanting to “defeat the terrorists.” It’s because he wants to be able to take care of his family.

  28. 28.

    Sly

    We all know this is due to the nervousness homebuyers are facing at the prospect of a mosque being built approximately two blocks away from every single house in America.

  29. 29.

    Pancake

    “….whose name makes fun of Rachel Corrie.”

    Svensker is a bloody idiot. Apparently he/she/it doesn’t even know how to Google. The name has absolutely nothing to do with Ms. Corrie, but is rather a reference to a code name assigned a very famous “journalist” by one of his Soviet-era handlers.

  30. 30.

    General Stuck

    I see a tsunami of political populism on the horizon that will make all others seem like child’s play. over outsourcing jobs and free trade. You can’t fill jobs that were sent away and you can’t compete with a third world that largely has no rules. Unless you join them to a large degree

  31. 31.

    burnspbesq

    I am part of that top one percent that y’all love to hate on.
    I neither need nor want a tax cut. If I get one, I will give the extra money to my favorite bleeding-heart liberal charities: the ACLU, the Sierra Club, the NRDC, and my favorite public radio stations (KCRW, KKJZ, and WBGO). And the next person from the DNC or DSCC that calls me is going to get a fucking earful.

  34. 34.

    suzanne

    If I wasn’t halfway through hatching my very own terrorist anchor baby, I would totally hit the bottle right now.

    But I have to make sure this one is cute. The cute ones sell for more.

  35. 35.

    Chyron HR

    @Pancake:

    He actually thinks that if you Google “Pancake” you get links to something other than IHOP. That’s almost as funny as his conviction that he’s going to be richly rewarded for being so “useful” to Israel.

  39. 39.

    General Stuck

    @Chyron HR:

    Well, Pancake is an asshole fer sure, but Svensker reading his motive to poor Ms. Corrie, only reminds me of the awful video I saw of the incident years ago, that I wish I hadn’t seen.

  40. 40.

    TrishB

    @Violet: One of the neighbors’ kids is thinking of joining the Army. He’s a year out of Dartmouth with a chem degree and can’t get a job. My nephew has called this kid the smartest guy he’s ever known. The nephew has a year left for his physics/philo double major and isn’t feeling too hopeful.

    Then again, I’ve been unemployed since April and can’t make any headway. But Geithner says I just need some job training. Right, because experience in continuous process improvement, statistical analysis, and database design is soooo outdated.

  41. 41.

    Svensker

    @Pancake:

    Svensker is a bloody idiot. Apparently he/she/it doesn’t even know how to Google. The name has absolutely nothing to do with Ms. Corrie, but is rather a reference to a code name assigned a very famous “journalist” by one of his Soviet-era handlers.

    You have a right to your name but it doesn’t mean it’s right. After all, I am very sensitive and being reminded of Rachel Corrie and those who laughed at her death upsets me. So I think you should move at least another 2 blocks away. KWIM.

  43. 43.

    Pancake

    @Chyron HR:

    Another idiot heard from. Apparently, the regulars here are about as dumb as our current President. However, I suspect that even he, working with Michelle perhaps, could probably figure out what words to “Google.” But on the basis of his numerous posts, Chyron probably is not up to the simple assignment.

  47. 47.

    burnspbesq

    I propose, ladies and gentlemen, that Pancake develop an insatiable appetite for pie. He (or is it she) is unworthy of our time and attention. If you don’t have Cleek’s pie filter installed, you can find it by Googling “cleek’s pie filter.” You will need to install Greasemonkey on your browser first. And note that unfortunately, there is no mobile version.

  48. 48.

    srv

    @BR: I’ll listen to this, but these different folks trying to tie inflation or deflation to peak oil – I mean, come on. Who is going to use all this oil in an apocolyptic depression?

    Oil consumption is going to fall, and reaching peak production is not going to equal any near term energy crises.

  49. 49.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Look, as long as David Broder, Chris Matthews, Charles Krauthammer, Joke Line, and other Villagers are employed, there is no unemployment problem in this country worth fretting about.

    I wish you people would acknowledge this hard reality!

  50. 50.

    General Stuck

    @burnspbesq: Sometimes I wonder about that pie filter thingamabob.. Hello, anybody out there, testing 1 2 3.

    Or, is an asshole really an asshole if no one can read their comments. deep thoughts.

  51. 51.

    srv

    And what’s wrong with the Imperial Army getting the cream of the crop from our Ivy league schools? This is a feature, IMO, not a bug until we can get rid of the AVF.

    I’ll never understand Code Pink. The USMC (although not the other services) tries to balance their recruits from all geographical and economic segments of the population. Every Code Pink success in a place like Berkeley just means one more marine from Jesustan. Way to go girls.

  53. 53.

    Yutsano

    @burnspbesq: It may be a moral failing, but I don’t pie trolls. I’d rather they expend their energy and be ignored rather than just shove them under a rock. Just going about your business like they never spoke is a helluva lot of fun, especially when they try to get your attention.

  55. 55.

    WereBear

    Are we going to be Germany after WWII? Bombed to rubble, demoralized, and past leadership tainted with blood and pain?

    I want to see some socks pulled up!

    And if Californian don’t start marching in the streets demanding change, they are going to lose some of my respect. For the love of FSM, the French do it, and then they get their way!

    So just how hard can it be?

  57. 57.

    Ajr22

    Just think if we elected McCain and palin unemployment would be at 4%. We would have no Hispanics or Muslims in the country, we would have defeated Iran, and Christmas would be safe.

  58. 58.

    TuttiHitTheFan

    for those who don’t slurp down copious cocktails for fucked fiscal future fatigue, might I suggest a HUGH PLATE of pierógi with onions and mushrooms. next time it’ll be sans garnish in this house. oh noes!

  60. 60.

    Pancake

    @arguingwithsignposts:

    Yet one more moron heard from. I’ve never referred to Ms. Corrie in my life. You would know this if you were not obviously so stupid that you are incapable of utilizing that site search facility, fucker.

  63. 63.

    Mnemosyne

    @kdaug:

    Laissez-faire capitalism has failed spectacularly, just like it did 70 years ago. The fact that our elites have somehow convinced themselves that the New Deal that saved capitalism last time was actually a failure is what’s giving me the heebie-jeebies.

  64. 64.

    13th Generation

    @ Yutsano

    I agree, the comments at Thinkprogress are insufferable, but it seems like there’s a lot more instigators around here lately.

  65. 65.

    srv

    @stuckinred: The other services moved out of Berkeley, the Marines moved in. Why do you think they’d do that, they’re masochists? Ask Cole, the average Marine officer may be as wingy as the Army, but they’re typically smarter. They have to do more with less, being a lessor stepchild to Navy.

    As an example, Petreaus and McChrystal didn’t discover paying off Sunni militias led to less violence, a Marine did.

  66. 66.

    Mnemosyne

    I do love how the troll keeps changing his story. He’s like a five-year-old who really thinks that if he insists he isn’t the one who broke the lamp even when his mom saw him do it, she’ll ignore her lying eyes and believe him.

  67. 67.

    demo woman

    When I read a few of Pancakes comments all I could think of was a vat of hot maple syrup.

  68. 68.

    Yutsano

    @Omnes Omnibus: Hornets’ nest there my good sir. Not that I don’t give you credit for trying to take on the nonsense, but it really is a futile gesture. Shunning is the best recourse for a problem like that.

    @demo woman: And blueberries. Nice ripe sweet/tart blueberries. Yes I’m dropping not-so-subtle hints for jeffreyw why do you ask? :)

  69. 69.

    stuckinred

    @srv: Ask Cole, dawg I got OUT of the Army before Cole was born. What does the intelligence of the officer corps have to do with recruiting strategy?

  71. 71.

    stuckinred

    In the Army, one needs an Army “GT” (General Technical, which is Word Knowledge and Paragraph Comprehension plus Arithmetic Reasoning) composite score of 115 to qualify for commissioning programs. The Air Force and Navy both have separate officer qualifying tests. In the Marine Corps, one must have a GT score of 115, or one must achieve a minimum score on the Math and Verbal sections of the SAT or ACT.

    So the Jarheads are smarter how?

  72. 72.

    Anne Laurie

    @ellaesther:

    And what of those who do not drink? What are we to do, eh, Mr. Cole? Why are we always left out of the misery-loves-company parties?

    As an expert, I recommend a good food coma. Chocolate, potato chips, mac’n’cheese, bacon cheeseburgers (well, probably not in your household) — we can just destroy our hearts instead of our livers in search of respite.

  73. 73.

    tkogrumpy

    @BR: I want to take this opportunity to thank BR as well as too many others to mention for doing the research and linking to relevant stuff. I’m retired with shitloads of free time and I still couldn’t do this well without you guys,… and gals.

  74. 74.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @srv:

    Ask Cole, the average Marine officer may be as wingy as the Army, but they’re typically smarter. They have to do more with less, being a lessor stepchild to Navy.

    Careful there, hoss. The Army has its share of Ivy Leaguers, grads of top tier liberal arts colleges, Rhodes Scholars, etc.

  75. 75.

    Nick

    @WereBear:

    And if Californian don’t start marching in the streets demanding change, they are going to lose some of my respect. For the love of FSM, the French do it, and then they get their way!

    Oh yeah, telling Americans to do what the French do is bound to work.

  76. 76.

    General Stuck

    Sgt. Oddball and his men, part of the USArmy 321st Armour Division, landed in Omaha Beach, Normandy, on D-Day, and fought all the way to Nancy under an officer who wanted to be a hero.

    When the commanding officer was decapitated by a 88, Sgt. Oddball did not report the death.

    Fuck officers. all of em.

  78. 78.

    Anne Laurie

    @kdaug:

    Is it just me, or has capitalism failed completely?

    It’s working just fine for the top 5% or so. And, unfortunately, they’re the ones who get to set the parameters for this ongoing experiment, so the rest of us pee-ons can’t count on their sympathy. Sure, we could band together and use our numbers to outweigh their financial resources, but those crafty fvckers are getting increasingly sophisticated at the thought-control methods necessary to keep the hoi polloi divided & powerless.

  83. 83.

    Honus

    @Pancake: You know you’re right. Why come here at all, we’re all such morons. Go hang out with the smart folks over at Amy Alkon’s site.

  84. 84.

    stuckinred

    @General Stuck: I remember stateside that you had to salute their goddamn cars with the blue bumper sticker no matter who was driving. A whole company saluting some Major’s daughter!

  86. 86.

    Montysano

    Here’s what I want: I want the economy to crash just enough to destroy Goldman Sachs et al and put an end to this farce that we’re all living, but not enough that I have to hunt wild hogs with a spear in order to feed my family. Is this possible?

  90. 90.

    Svensker

    @srv:

    I’ll never understand Code Pink. The USMC (although not the other services) tries to balance their recruits from all geographical and economic segments of the population. Every Code Pink success in a place like Berkeley just means one more marine from Jesustan. Way to go girls.

    Wait, what? What would you have Code Pink do? Encourage Berkeley students to sign up for the War Machine?

  94. 94.

    stuckinred

    @General Stuck: Reminds me of a great scene in “Go Tell the Spartans” when Burt Lancaster is telling the story of being caught by the General being “serviced” by the General’s wife in the garden at a party. “What did you do” asked the private?
    “What any officer would have done, I saluted”!

  99. 99.

    burnspbesq

    @stuckinred:

    So the Jarheads are smarter how?

    They joined a service that can’t send them to Biloxi (Keesler AFB) in the summer or Watertown, NY (Fort Drum) in the winter.

  100. 100.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Montysano: I am just trying to think of something more advanced than a spear for your wild pig hunting. You are asking to thread a pretty small needle.

  101. 101.

    Svensker

    @burnspbesq:

    They joined a service that can’t send them to Biloxi (Keesler AFB) in the summer or Watertown, NY (Fort Drum) in the winter

    Tell me. I got South Carolina in the summer followed by Indianapolis in the winter. On the plus side, I was ready for duty on Mars after that.

  103. 103.

    stuckinred

    @burnspbesq: I see where Gates wants to return them to their “maritime” mission. Just like when they were on the DMZ they are not really suited for Afghanistan type missions after the initial assault.

  106. 106.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @stuckinred: I don’t know that it is a bad idea. They are good at what they do, but they are generally too lightly equipped for the heavy stuff and too heavily equipped for the light stuff.

  107. 107.

    stuckinred

    @Omnes Omnibus: Agreed. I was in the Delta and the “Mobile Riverene Force” was a combined Army-Navy Op while the Marines held relatively static defense on the DMZ. Seemed kinda goofy.

  109. 109.

    ellaesther

    @Anne Laurie: I’ve only been drunk a time or two, and I have to say, food comas don’t really come close (those, I’ve done more often!).

    ON THE OTHER HAND – I do have Valium in the house.

  110. 110.

    Frank

    @Pancake:

    Sounds like a pretty convincing case for getting rid of the Democrats in Congress come the November elections, and start on replacing the current President in 2012.

    I’d be happy to vote Republican as soon as they tell me what their plans for our country are. Just saying no to Obama is not a plan.

    Would you really vote for a party without knowing what their plan is? All I know is their track record between 2000-2008 and that they haven’t apologized for it. Why would I want to go back to the disaster between 2000-2008?

  112. 112.

    burnspbesq

    @Svensker:

    When I first joined the IRS Office of Chief Counsel in the early 90s, they were holding two two-week training sessions that all newbies had to go through on military bases to save money. I got Davis-Monthan AFB (Tucson) in June and Keesler in August.

    As a GS-13, I got the facility privileges of an O-5, which included priority for reserving tee times and tennis courts. Couldn’t do either between 0600 and 2100.

  113. 113.

    Onkel Bob

    No doubt though, USAF enlisted are the smartest. In the Army and Marines, the officers send the enlisted off to fight and die. In the Navy, the officers and enlisted fight and die together. In the USAF, the enlisted salute the officers, and say “Fly, Fight, Win, sir”! And then we went and hid behind the battalions of Marines and Army so the bad guys didn’t get us. :^)

  114. 114.

    NobodySpecial

    @Frank: The troll has left, having already generated the points tonight he’ll need for his pink John McCain golf balls. What he will then do with them takes very little imagination.

  119. 119.

    Bruce (formerly Steve S.)

    Just Start Drinking Heavily

    Whoa, cowboy. Start drinking heavily? Or we just had the best two years since Roosevelt? Which?

    Sorry, John, you just grounded your club in a bunker.

  120. 120.

    Shalimar

    @Pancake: If Cole says you don’t have the same email addy/IP as the person who posted right before you arrived as either Pancake Rachel Corrie or Rachel “Pancake” Corrie, then apologies are in order. The timing was extremely convenient, but coincidences do happen so you might be a different troll.

  121. 121.

    Xenos

    @TooManyJens: I am pretty sure it is the same, although I have been out of touch and not aware of the banning. The specious red-baiting slur of the same individual seems a clear tip-off.

    It is amazing how the worst of the trolls have such animus for the greatest spirits among us.

  122. 122.

    Brachiator

    Although not unexpected, the news flow is about to take a more negative tone starting with the existing home sales report on August 23rd.

    Jesus Christ on a Roof Shingle. Wages are stagnant, unemployment is high and we have a jobless recovery. People cannot afford to buy homes, and soon many will not be able to rent.

    The previous housing bubble tried to get around this reality by phony deals and by raping homeowners with myriad fees which guaranteed lenders profits even as the homeowners sank under the burden of debt they were dealing with.

    The math on this is simple.

    Meanwhile, banks are holding onto their money and paying out bonuses. And ordinary people are not spending money because they would be crazy to do so with a huge cloud of economic uncertainty hanging over their heads.

    And so, businesses quietly die, taking more jobs with them. Another poster recently noted that his business was trying to weather the recession by unofficially extending credit to customers.

    Locally, two businesses in my area closed down on Friday. One, a Philly Cheese Steak joint, had an excellent location, convenient to commuters and to walk by traffic. Their prices were reasonable and the food was good.

    Obama’s people need to do some serious jawboning with bankers to get them to do more lending. And the Democrats need to make a stronger case to the voters, because otherwise the GOP will continue to have the bankers’ backs.

  123. 123.

    mclaren

    @BR:

    I can vouch for the excellence of that sheffield indymedia lecture on mp3. It’s just a shame that her charts weren’t included.

    The fundamental problem here is that the American economy is broken at a structural level. It no longer generates decent wage middle class jobs.

    That’s been true for some time, but the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble let us act as though it wasn’t. In the 90s people became web programmers or sysadmins to increase their income when their old jobs went bust in the 1980s, and in the 2000s people got realtors licenses to boost their incomes. But in the 2010s there are no more options. Today, if you’re a new graduate and you weren’t in the top 10% of an Ivy League college class, you’re not going to have a decent-paying job. You’re going to work at Starbucks part-time.

    The Atlantic article from March 2010 doesn’t get it. The article claims:

    Ultimately, innovation is what allows an economy to grow quickly and create new jobs as old ones obsolesce and disappear.

    That used to be true. It’s not true any longer. Today, innovation gets immediately offshored. The new R&D by American companies is being done overseas, where it’s cheaper. As soon as any new technology appears it’s no longer getting implemented in Silicon Valley or the biotech Golden Triangle in La Jolla — it’s immediately outsourced overseas to start-up factories in Shenzheng or Mumbai.

    Martin Ford has been writing about this for years. See his article “The long-term structural unemployment crisis.”

    The fact is that structural unemployment is here to stay. It will very likely get worse, and it will increasingly impact workers with college educations and high skill levels. Those with few skills and little education have been the first to feel the brunt, but machines are getting better and smarter. The rest of us are next.

    If you’re a college teacher, you can and will be replaced by a lecturer on an internet video link from India — whose native language is English. If you’re a surgeon, you can and will be replaced by a robot (the father of a friend of mine just had prostate surgery. It was done by a robot, better than a human could have done it.) If you’re a nurse, you can and will be replaced by a machine + internet monitoring software of the patient’s vitals. If you’re a truck driver, wait a while…autonomous driving systems are advancing by leaps and bounds. You will be replaced. (Just recently autonomous cars started on a 1,300 kilometer unsuervised test drive across Australia.) If you’re a receptionist or a supermarket checkout clerk, your job is going to be replaced by an automated system. If you’re a biochemical researcher, your job is going to be replaced by outsourced distributed networks of gamers.

    Graphic designers, editors, doctors, scientists, financial professionals, realtors, travel agents, you name it — if you’re a white collar professional, your job is going to be replaced either by a machine or by offshoring using the internet.

    Very few jobs in America will remain. They’ll be a peculiar mix of hands-on irreplaceable tasks — dog groomers will stay, but not loading dock workers or warehouse foremen or supermarket checkout clerks or receptionists or hotel clerks or radiologists. HVAC repairmen will stay, but not material scientists or molecular biologists or paralegals or RNs or truck drivers or garbagemen. (The garbageman in my neighborhood is now one guy who drives an automated truck that picks up specially shaped garbage cans with giant claws and automatically empties ’em into the truck using optical sensors. It’s faster and much cheaper than human garbagemen.) Sysadmins will work 7000 miles away via the internet and they’ll be in India or China; accountants will do the books on the other side of the world while American executives sleep.

    No one has explained how America (or any other advanced country) can continue to have a functioning economy after these changes sweep through the workplace. An economy where everyone is a dog groomer or a maid won’t work.

  124. 124.

    mclaren

    @Violet:

    In all seriousness, the nephew of friends of mine is considering joining the military because he simply can’t get a job. He’s got a high school diploma, a wife and a baby, and cannot find work.

    Then he’s stupid.

    Worst case? That nephew of your friends will have a widow and a fatherless baby.

    Best care? That nephew of your friends will come back with PTSD and blinding migraines and uncontrollable tremors and constant panic attacks and he won’t be able to sleep any more than 2 hours per night. He won’t be able to hold down a job and he won’t be able to go to college because of all the meds he’ll have to take to keep from convulsing or passing out with blinding headaches.

    However bad things are for a young person right now, going into the army will make it worse. 30% of army recruits return home with mental illness or some form of brain damage — often undiagnosed. Only 23% of people who go into the army wind up making use of those college benefits. And if you’re a woman?

    Hooooo boy. One out of three women who volunteer for the army today get raped by another soldier.

    More soldiers in Iraq committed suicide this month than were killed by insurgents. Once you join the army, you’re in forever. With stop-loss they can keep you in until your wife divorces you and your baby dies of whooping cough and that job your boss was holding for you evaporates and your house gets foreclosed. Have a talk with that nephew. He really seriously doesn’t want to go into the army. Seriously. It will not work out well.

  125. 125.

    Ruckus

    @Brachiator:
    The banks could lend me all the money but that doesn’t purchase the one thing I need most.
    Customers who will purchase product above the level of the most basic/cheapest when they do buy. And until those missing jobs come back and the ones that have jobs are not looking over their shoulders for that pink slip or having their hours cut that won’t happen at a reasonable rate.

    If we as a country don’t get it together soon, businesses will continue to fail at an even faster rate. The small, under financed ones at first who have been hanging on for so long and then the biggies. If this is not turned around I fear we are looking at a full blown depression. There will be companies left, and some will say the strong survived, but they will be the ones that are the most ruthless and the biggest, because they have cash reserves and can cut employees and corners and still operate. And the face of this nation will be forever changed as it was after the last depression because there is no way for an FDR to be elected now and the point is moot as there isn’t an FDR on the horizon in any event. And even if there was, the senate is so broken as a legislative body that no one could pull off what FDR did.

    I hate to sound like a broken record here but the economy is not improving except for banks/financial casinos, unemployment is not going down, 25-30% of our population wants us all to be teleported back to the 1800’s, we spend money on our military like crack whores buying a hit. I could go on but I cut back my drinking about 10 yrs ago and can’t really afford it anyway.

  126. 126.

    mclaren

    @Ruckus:

    There will be companies left, and some will say the strong survived, but they will be the ones that are the most ruthless and the biggest, because they have cash reserves and can cut employees and corners and still operate.

    It’s an accelerating vicious cycle. The companies that survive this recession will be the ones that most successfully offshore or automate jobs.

    The more successfully they offshore or automate jobs, the fewer jobs will remain in America. With fewer jobs in America to provide income for customers to buy things, business will continue to get worse, forcing companies to offshore and automate the remaining jobs more savagely.

    Rinse, wash, repeat.

  127. 127.

    MNPundit

    Thanks for jumping in front of those pitchforks last year Obama! They couldn’t have done it without you.

  128. 128.

    clussman

    The report was bad but the comments here are off-the-chart bad. Doom and gloom. Doom and gloom. I’m one of those web designers who is apparently at imminent risk of my job going overseas. Except that it’s not. I have plenty of job security.

    I also apparently work at a company that will only survive by being ruthless and outsourcing jobs to cheap 2nd/3rd world labor. Except that I don’t. We’re doing something else: innovating. And we’re doing gangbusters.

    So yeah, in general shit’s bad. But it’s not universally bad.

    A glass of wine does sound good though…

  129. 129.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Bruce (formerly Steve S.):

    Cole’s manic-depressive right now. The booze isn’t helping. It’s really all Aravosis’ fault (do I even have that name right?)

    I guess the reality that the Greatest and Most Brilliant Stimulus Ever can only muster <2% gdp growth (which pretty much makes us the new Japan, and look how well that's been going) is hitting hard on the guy at the moment.

  130. 130.

    SciVo

    @BR: Thanks! I’ve listened to an hour so far, great stuff. An amazing synthesis of things that I already knew individually, but put together with a rigor enforced by a knowledge of economic history that I do not possess. (That’s to praise her, not to diss myself; I actually know quite a bit, having taken economics up to the 300 level of macro, micro, metrics and history, just for fun.) Stoneleigh is a true systems thinker and everything that I’ve heard so far makes total sense, so I heartily second your endorsement.

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