Didn’t need to read this:
Although not unexpected, the news flow is about to take a more negative tone starting with the existing home sales report on August 23rd. We’ve been discussing this for some time … and I’d like to highlight just a few pieces of forthcoming data:
# The existing home sales report will show that sales collapsed in July (this is showing up in all the regional reports).
# The existing home months-of-supply will jump to double digits.
# House prices are probably falling again, although this might not show up in the repeat sales indexes until September or October (this data is released with a lag).
# On August 27th, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. This will probably show a significant downward revision from the preliminary estimate of 2.4% annualized growth. The downward revision is due to lower construction spending than the BEA initially estimated, less contribution from inventory adjustments, and the June surge in exports.
# The unemployment rate will probably start ticking up again soon (or the participation rate will fall further).
But what about the deficit and inflation?