No one could have predicted this:
When the Obama administration called a halt to virtually all deepwater drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon blowout and fire in April, oil executives, economists and local officials complained that the six-month moratorium would cost thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in lost revenue.
Oil supply firms went to court to have the moratorium overturned, calling it illegal and warning that it would exacerbate the nation’s economic woes, lead to oil shortages and cause an exodus of drilling rigs from the gulf to other fields around the world. Two federal courts agreed.
Yet the worst of those forecasts has failed to materialize, as companies wait to see how long the moratorium will last before making critical decisions on spending cuts and layoffs. Unemployment claims related to the oil industry along the Gulf Coast have been in the hundreds, not the thousands, and while oil production from the gulf is down because of the drilling halt, supplies from the region are expected to rebound in future years. Only 2 of the 33 deepwater rigs operating in the gulf before the BP rig exploded have left for other fields.
So maybe pausing drilling for a couple months after a catastrophic disaster may have been a reasonable thing to do after all.
stuckinred
Any comments from that Howdy Doody lookin shit head?
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
This is the thing I continue to like the most about our President: He is a reasonable man.
I don’t always agree with his decisions, there are things that I wish he would do differently, but when all are losing their heads about him, he stops, looks sternly at the headless, and behaves reasonably.
(Speaking of the stern look — can you imagine being on the receiving end of that as his kid? Or intern? That look would make me quake, and I’m his wife’s age).
Nick
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
leading an unreasonable country
Dave
I eagerly await all the television time and news coverage that will be given to this result. Just as all that time was given to the premature fear-mongering about the ban destroying the economy. Also, I believe in pixie dust and magical unicorns.
someguy
They pause drilling for a few months, prices go way the fuck up, their profits go up.
The moratorium gets lifted, they start pumping crude, they reap windfall profits for several month until prices normalize; yep, profits go up!
It’s a win-win!
Tom65
I never bought the argument about the rigs moving elsewhere. It costs a shitload of money to move a rig and re-drill, probably at least as much as just sitting it out on an established well for six months.
General Stuck
When we have five tea party candidates as new US Senators, no mo namby pamby Obamby envirus regs for you mr soshulist.
drill baby drill
gogol's wife
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
I saw it close up, when the guy next to me asked him for his autograph (at an event that was not a political rally). It’s scary. But very handsome.
Redshift
I live in the DC suburbs, so we always know when some new business-related legislation is moving through Congress because there are vaguely menacing TV ads about how it will completely destroy whatever business is affected by it. (They’re vague because they’re not really intended to be understood by regular people, just congressional staffers.)
Sometimes the legislation passes and — spoiler alert! — the dire consequences never happen. In a sane world, all such whining would be roundly ignored. Politicians pay attention to it not because there’s any truth to it, but because the people whining have the power to make their fundraising lives happier or sadder. No one else has any reason to believe it at all.
The Bearded Blogger
@General Stuck: Maybe such a result will force the dems to change filibuster rules and hold rules… otherwise, TPers will just block absolutely everything…
flukebucket
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
He is without question the man who needs to be running this country at this point in time. But never in our history has a President been surrounded by so many clowns and fools. He seems to always be the only adult in the room. I just hope he can hold out until 2016.
jonas
The idea that we should keep drilling full steam ahead while we still don’t know exactly what went wrong on the Maconda site is insanity. I swear, Louisiana has Battered State Syndrome (along with Kentucky and West Virginia): the oil industry has beat up on it for decades, yet they keep going back to it because, aw shit, it’s the only industry that could love such an ugly whore of a state like you and besides, where else ya gonna go for jobs? Huh? Shut your yap and get back to work, Louisianans, before we have to smack you again.
arguingwithsignposts
@General Stuck:
I can’t see either Buck or Angle making it. Paul might not totally flame out, so at most, there are three more idiots in the Senate to deal with.
Singularity
Well, we know that the solution to every problem is to drill because Saint Sarah says so. So this report must be erronitive in some dubiant manner, you betcha.
Culture of Truth
sure it’s reasonable if you’re an american-hating muslim commie
Brachiator
And yet, do you think that any of the conservative pundits, the Limbaughs and their ilk will backtrack on their warnings that the president’s decision here would kill jobs and was a pretext for nationalizing the oil industry? I also vaguely recall Louisiana Governor Jindal making noise about needing to get back to drill baby drill as quickly as possible.
Great point. Maybe in wingnut land, they think that oil rigs can just be plucked out of the ocean and quickly planted in a new location.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@Nick: Yes. That does rather make his job more difficult, doesn’t it. Not to mention the difficulty it creates for the reasonable people living here….
@flukebucket: You and me both, brother (and, I suspect,Nick).
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@gogol’s wife: “…But very handsome.” Ha!
And swoon….
/is 16 again/
Nick
@jonas:
Like I said yesterday, this is how, not only oil and coal, but banks and insurance companies gained so much control over the system that it made being pro-corporate the same as pro-worker.
You can’t invest in clean energy with a carbon tax, because its going to cause unemployment to skyrocket in Applachia and cost jobs on the Gulf Coast and in Alaska. You can’t go overboard in taxing and regulating banks because it would pound the economies of New York, Boston, Chicago, etc. You can’t institute single payer because you cost thousands of jobs in the short term.
These things are good long term, but the short term effects are so drastic that it keeps them from happening. In order to protect jobs, you have to protect corporations and industries that screw the country as a whole.
arguingwithsignposts
OT, but Catfood Commissioner Alan Simpson is a steaming pile of human excrement who needs to resign.
Culture of Truth
JOBSKILLER!!!
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
Most of the time I feel the same way, but I can’t shake the unpleasant feeling that Obama and his cabinet have done an outstanding job of reproducing the JFK admin, complete with many of the parts which would have been best left in the history books – a narrow base of socio-economic experience coupled with excessive confidence in the meritocracy of the American educational system, a dangerous and unjustified faith in purely technocratic solutions to problems, and timidity in the face of domestic evil. It is as if nobody in the room has read The Best and the Brightest.
And that stern look works great if the target is somebody who has a sense of shame, like family for example. On the arsonist who intends to set fire to your house, not so much. Obama is so busy trying to finish off Lincoln’s 2nd term by binding up the nation’s wounds that he doesn’t seem to realize it is still only 1863, and old Dixie hasn’t been driven down yet.
soonergrunt
Hey, where’s that chart showing the parts of the national debt vis a vis the wars and the bush tax cuts and the bail outs and so on? I need to slap a conservative who may be amenable to having some sense slapped into him.
slag
Don’t you know that the only way to keep our economy going is to allow all corporations to ravish our natural resources, pay their employees slave wages, and enjoy enormous tax benefits? Plus, you’re not allowed to go around hurting their feelings. All of which obviously means that we have the greatest economic system ever!
Speaking of oil use (or lack thereof), I have a question for the Balloon Juice Bicycle Borg (and all other smart people): I’m looking for a rear bicycle basket that can be switched between different bike racks at a moment’s notice and be locked to the bicycle easily. Any suggestions?
chopper
@soonergrunt:
might you have a wooden bat?
Maude
The 2 rigs that left would have prolly gone anyway.
Along the same line, the evidence recovery has started on the Deepwater Horizon equipment.
What the DOJ directed to be done as far as the legal issues are concerned is reasonable.
Things are really screwed up when rig workers safety is not even considered as a reason to stop drilling until everything is checked out.
The people who whine about the moritorium are beneath contempt. They must be Republicans.
fucen tarmal
if off-shore drilling and domestic production is, as we have been told, the key to maintaining our “american way of life”….
if the bric countries and the rest of the developing world are increasingly sucking up oil at such an alarming rate, that we need the oil we produce…
why has the price been on a decline since a small peak back in may?
Zifnab
@soonergrunt: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.perrspectives.com/images/cbpp_bush_tax_cuts_deficit.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/001885.htm&usg=__zHyKlC_aA35E9HdhVRMm4elALcE=&h=287&w=447&sz=56&hl=en&start=1&zoom=1&tbnid=IJ_eHvick2uUdM:&tbnh=82&tbnw=127&prev=/images%3Fq%3Ddeficit%2Btax%2Bcuts%2Bwar%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26biw%3D1105%26bih%3D792%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1
Here you go, good sir. Use it wisely.
I also like this one.
http://arizona.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/24/deficit_3.gif
Poopyman
@someguy: Not so fast.
You need demand before prices go up. Or at least a perception of demand, the way the market is constructed. Not seeing that yet, by a long shot.
ruemara
Anything a black guy does is wrong. Q. E. D. ipso facto so there.
spongeworthy
Yet the worst of those forecasts has failed to materialize, as companies wait to see how long the moratorium will last before making critical decisions on spending cuts and layoffs.
What am I missing here? Do you folks think this is a good thing? That the layoffs haven’t happened yet because an industry is being held in limbo as the Administration appeals an order already overturned by the court?
Poopyman
@flukebucket:
They are clowns and fools of his own choosing, so unless he makes a midcourse adjustment,… well, I’m not terribly happy with him right now.
slag
@spongeworthy: Yes.
Bob L
Listen commie- the free market magic pony that
shits out toxicprovides unlimited oil DIES a horrible death if it even sees government regulation.Don’t scare the magic ponies!
cat48
Billy Nungesser could tell you & anyone that would listen exactly why you & the NYT are wrong! (He’s a little overexposed)
Redshift
@Nick: These things are good long term, but the short term effects are so drastic that it keeps them from happening.
No, they’re not. Industries are perpetually claiming that new costs or requirements imposed by government will have “drastic” effects, but it never happens. Contrary to big-business propaganda, changes such as those you cite are phased in over years, with considerable effort to allow businesses time to adapt.
It’s a particularly ludicrous argument to make for the financial industry. The first decade of this century produced zero net economic growth, zero job growth, and returning to the regulations in place before 1998 would devastate the economies of New York, Boston, and Chicago?
The problem is not that these arguments are true, but that people continue to believe them, no matter how often they’re contradicted by actual events.
soonergrunt
@Zifnab: Thanks!!
cleek
@The Bearded Blogger:
so, GOP business as usual.
General Stuck
OT
Your wingnut zen – {{{TODAY}}}
Former Senator Alan Simpson R Wy
muses on Social Security
That’s a big fucking cow.
Get a JOB Libtard!!
Zuzu's Petals
This is good news. But a couple of points:
1. As the article points out, most of the drilling companies are staying here with the understanding that the moratorium will be lifted soon. The predictions for losses were based on the prospect of a full six month (or longer) moratorium, so I’m not sure it’s fair to say they were completely unrealistic.
2. A lot of the workers directly affected by the moratorium – rig employees – are receiving subsidies from the $100 million that BP set aside for that purpose. So that may be masking unemployment numbers.
Nick
@Redshift:
but since we’ve never actually done it, how do we know?
The point is, we don’t, and it makes it easier to scare people into siding with them.
Zuzu's Petals
@Tom65:
The moratorium was on drilling new wells, not on production on existing wells.
bkny
the down time was also used to make equipment repairs, etc. that wouldn’t have been done otherwise.
D-Chance.
Jobless claims disappeared almost as quickly as all that oil that magically vanished. Now, go out and buy some of that yummy Gulf shrimp! Go ahead, it’s government-approved safe! MMmmnnn….
flukebucket
@Poopyman:
I was thinking more in the line of other elected officials and the media but I get your point.
Anytime I find myself getting disillusioned I just remind myself of what the alternative was. America made the overwhelmingly right choice and it always makes me smile a little inside when I think of it that way.
misterarthur
Dan Hicks!
4tehlulz
Other things no one predicted:
NYPD Charges Man With Hate Crime After He Allegedly Stabbed Muslim Cab Driver
catclub
@D-Chance.:
I’ll have you know that all the shrimp I can find at Walmart comes from Vietnam. It’s the American way!
stuckinred
@catclub: CHOI DUC !
Sentient Puddle
On an entirely different note, it looks like 538 just relaunched. Spiffy!
Poopyman
@flukebucket: I know what you mean. That’s why I veered off there at the end. If a better candidate comes along I’ll happily jump on the bandwagon, but that mythical beast is nowhere to be seen.
Southern Beale
Files this under Nobody could have anticipated as well:
A city cab driver is in the hospital after being stabbed by a passenger who allegedly asked if he was Muslim, police tell NY1.
Investigators with the New York City Police Department say it all began Monday night when a 21-year-old man hailed a cab at 24th Street and Second Avenue in Manhattan.
Police say the passenger asked the driver, “Are you Muslim?” When the driver said yes the passenger pulled a knife and slashed him in the throat, arm and lip.
Zuzu's Petals
@Maude:
No.
Alwhite
@arguingwithsignposts:
Yes, but we knew that before he got this gig.
Me? I find Little Friskies has a nice, piquant robustness that makes it seem more filling, Tender Vittles on the other hand . . .
MikeBoyScout
“So maybe pausing drilling for a couple months after a catastrophic disaster may have been a reasonable thing to do after all.”
It is thinking like this which could destroy our nation’s chicken industry.
There are some who would think it reasonable to recall eggs just because a billion or two have the possibility of carrying enterobacteria which can cause serious illness.
If we inhibit our corporate egg farmers in any way it would cost thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in lost revenue.
Buy and eat salmonella encrusted eggs!
It is for the good of God and Country!!
Nick
@Southern Beale: I know that guy btw
Zuzu's Petals
@Nick:
Which one?
demo woman
@Southern Beale: The NYTimes has article on the stabbing . Link
Nick
@Zuzu’s Petals: The guy who slashed the cabbie’s throat.
Nom de Plume
@Nick: Perhaps you could shed some light on him? Do you know him well, or just in passing?
Nick
@Nom de Plume: I know him through friends, but I never got the sense that he was some radical teabagger nut.
But many of my friends are radical teabagger nuts, in fact some of them have been defending him on Facebook, saying Muslims triggered this by wanting to build the mosque as a “sign of victory” and this is how Americans respond.
4tehlulz
@Nick: You may want to consider rollin’ with another group. Just sayin’.
demo woman
@4tehlulz: Understatement of the day, just saying! lol
Jules
@Zuzu’s Petals:
From the article:
Oil workers idled by the government-imposed drilling suspension are not eligible for BP money intended for people directly affected by the spill, like gulf shrimpers and charter-boat captains. But BP has set aside $100 million to compensate rig hands and support workers who lose their jobs because of the moratorium. The Rig Workers Assistance Fund has not started to make payments.
So if they are laid off they would be applying for unemployment because the fund is not paying yet.
Mnemosyne
@Nick:
I’m pretty sure that attacking a cabbie and trying to kill him for being Muslim tips him over into the “radical teabagger nut” camp.
Just sayin’.
ed drone
@Nick:
Ahem! Defense Department / Corporatocracy, anyone? Just try closing a base, or cancelling a weapons system. Just try it.
Ed
ed drone
@MikeBoyScout:
Are these the new ‘Scotch Eggs?’ You know, the ones they have in bars, for noshing? Mmmm!!
Ed
Tone In DC
A substantial number of our cabdrivers in the DC area are Middle Eastern or Asian.
I have a feeling that after seeing that story, some of the cabbies are gonna want to exercise their 2nd amendment rights.
And to think, a few years ago we weren’t the murder capital of the country for the first time in a while.
Zuzu's Petals
@Jules:
Ah, good point. Thanks.