More lucky duckies:
With the American economic recovery showing clear signs of slowdown, private employers added 67,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said on Friday. The number was more than forecast.
Over all, the nation lost 54,000 jobs in August, the agency said, as state and local governments, many of them grappling with severe budget deficits, cut 1o,000 jobs last month. Another 114,000 temporary Census positions also came to an end. In all, governments cut 121,000 jobs last month.
The unemployment rate rose to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent in July.
Economists had forecast that the overall, nonfarm payrolls would decline 105,000 in August, with private employers adding 41,000 jobs.
So how long before it is just conventional wisdom that there will be a double dip?
i’d say we’re already there.
also, now might be a good time for the admin to do something.
Let’s say there weren’t — would an increasing un- and under-employment rate allow the vast majority of the population to concern itself with technical definitions of the GDP? Not that it has zero impact, but appears to be far less related to the job situation itself.
Chad N Freude
So is this an example of the fat that must be trimmed from the ever-growing government bureaucracy?
As long as the gang of 500 remain employed and able to attend cocktail parties, the unemployment percentage is an irrelevant number. None of their friends are struggling so the economy must be doing great!
Probably after Nov. 2nd, when the voters all realize they voted back into power a Republican Party whose tax-cut and kill-social-programs platform won’t do a damn thing to fix the unemployment crisis: that the Republicans will, in fact, make it five times worse.
Just a preliminary “Thanks Voters, Thanks a FUCKING Lot” for the archives so I can trot this back out when Speaker Boehner authorizes Darrel Issa to impeach Obama on every day between January 1, 2011 until Election Day 2012.
Uh….John? Market LOVES this info. Futures up huge. Whats the prob?
@PaulW: That is such a terrifying thought, it literally makes me sick to my stomach to contemplate.
Between the stimulus being sliced and diced, and the fact that most economists aren’t quite sure what industry would provide the growth to get out of recession (because this time it sure ain’t going to come from housing), I’ve been thinking it’s going to be a ‘W’ recession for quite a while.
And all this will lead to the Republicans getting back in power in one of the houses of congress, which will simply make things that much worse.
Everyone relax, the DOW is doing fine,
just gained fifty pts. Now, proceed.
Do you think anyone will think it’s the Republicans’ fault that we’re in a double dip recession?
It will clearly be those obstructionist Democrats who keep filibustering the Republicans’ completely legitimate “Soylent Green” initiative because they want to kill the jobs of the people who will process the corpses of our poor and enfeebled. Anyone who tries to lay the blame for our deficit on the fact that Republicans made the taxes on the wealthy 0% will clearly be a commie.
But seriously, I’m sure the Village will think that a double dip recession is Obama’s fault even if the Republicans retake congress.
The stupid impatience runs deep in this country. I expect more hard lessons in GOP governance will need to be suffered.
We ship our jobs overseas and actually provide financial incentive to do so, courtesy of free marketeers via mostly conservative philosophy inflicted on the country for 3 decades, then wonder why we have none to create, and the country is worried Obama might be a Muslim foreigner and the GOP “seems to be getting on their feet”. Wolverines motherfuckers!!
@cleek: You have to presume that the admin understands the issue and that their political calculus has come to the conclusion that standing pat is the best strategy. I can’t say that I understand the thinking or lack of urgency there on any level, I’m just judging them on their statements and policies. On the other hand, Krugman did lead with this today: “Next week, President Obama is scheduled to propose new measures to boost the economy.” Not optimistic, but we’ll see.
Double dip, John? Call me when we hit the first actual rise. From where I’m standing, I’ve been in free fall since 2000 and having watched my mate struggle to find a job for 2.6 years, the recessions never ended. Screw everyone who thinks this is a double dip. This has been the biggest pit I’ve ever seen. And I’d like to point out that the job losses are in government while job gains are in private sectors. People who use the most don’t want to pay for taxes. Well, good luck finding a cop or a fireman.
@jwb: Jobs bill. Still in Senate, passed in House. It’s been sitting there. There’s more that can be done, but it’s not like the administration is blithely ignoring it. Combine with state governments not releasing stimulus funds for projects and well…
@General Stuck: I certainly wish voters had the sort of rational, evidence-based view I would prefer, but there’s pretty good record to conclude that in reality that’s not a dominant pattern. It’s unfortunate, and it’s not just here, but this is what appears to have been the case — and partly I believe we’ve achieved as much as we have despite many voter tendencies.
@General Stuck: Very good summary. Now I haz a sad.
@General Stuck: It’s not just impatience, it’s also having to endure silly Timmy Geithner come out and give us his version of economic happy talk every other week. I don’t hear many ideas for how the government can address the economic issues coming from this administration, and I think people tend to read that, rightly or wrongly, as indifference. I do tend to think that left critics of Obama often seem mad at him for giving them a light purple unicorn when they wanted a pink one, but on the economic issues, the Obama administration has been adopting gooper framings almost from the beginning, and I don’t think it’s been helpful either in terms of policy or in terms of politics.
But Obama hates the business community. He’s the most anti-business President ever. All our economic problems are his fault. I know it’s true because I heard it on Glenn Beck.
@ruemara: Tell me about it. I now make less than half what I did in 2005 and I’m lucky I have a job at all.
@ruemara: I don’t think Obama has been well served by his economic team—and this has nothing to do with having to keep the Maine Senators or the blue dogs on board. His economic team represent almost exclusively the bankers world, and my guess is that this was done for political reasons of trying to keep the Wall Street financial money flowing toward the Dems. Well, that really didn’t work out for anyone except maybe the bankers, but it has really hurt Dem politics because of the way the whole economic debate has so far been framed between the poles of the center right and the right.
Pretty strange to watch the world through the lens of CNBC…
A three day stock market rally does not make an economic recovery. The way “the market” has interpreted weak variation in economic data makes me think that participants are straining to view the economy in a positive light.
@jwb: I am going to try my best to avoid parsing out whether Obama messaged this or that better, because I truly don’t think presidents have that much influence on the economy, especially when it is so deeply structurally fucked up as this one. I never liked his econ team, but look at it relative to when they took over and we were facing the depression abyss. So I don’t buy they have not done quite a bit right, aside from the smarmy personalities involved with Summers and Gheitner. I think we are in for painful and necessary deflation in this country with this economy, and there is no way around that. The president can create a solid safety net and keep the states above water, but the rest is extracting deeply pro supply side philosophy the wingnuts have had their way with for a long time. And that is not going to be done fast or easy, and without a lot of pain for the country. That is just my impression, and I am no expert, and don’t pretend to be. But that is what I believe.
I’m going to suggest that the admin is not coming out and talking much about how to fix it because there’s not a Hell of a lot the administration CAN do to fix it. Obama talks about the jobs bill now and then, but he can’t make it pass, and promising something he can’t provide hurts as much as helps. @cleek: might want to keep this in mind, too. The president does not have the power to fix this problem. It takes money, and the purse strings are in congress’s hands.
If you want to blame congress, go right ahead, but you know how complicated an issue that is. The Republicans are going to vote hard against anything that fixes the economy, and the blue dogs aren’t likely to cooperate before the election. They’re afraid of being seen as too liberal. Especially since it would likely take a year for any bill to affect the economy much.
Personally, I hope it becomes conventional wisdom fast we’re in a double-dip recession. Conventional wisdom hasn’t been right yet.
Chad N Freude
Anyone here catch the Boxer-Fiorina debate this week? Fiorina defended outsourcing — excuse me, she calls it “rightsourcing” — because it helps American businesses create more jobs here in the US. Mobius strip economics.
To deepen the misery, the NYT this morning is trumpeting a headline that even smart young Joe College type voters are not reliably Democratic anymore because they’re more worried about unemployment than social issues.
Which implies that these smart young whippersnappers think that the election of republicans might, um, fix the unemployment problem.
These are the smart young baby “elitist” folks, ladies and gentlemen. No fat stupid rednecks in lawn chairs (sorry Somerby). No “low information” voters. No grandchildren of KKK Grand Wizards. Our hope, our future, our little tomorrows.
So, if the NYT account has any cred (which I don’t assume it does), we’re even fuckeder than we were yesterday. If someone will kindly volunteer to be Jim Jones, I would like to follow you to Guyana and drink the koolaid now, please. kthxbai
but i think that when they worked through their “political calculus”, they solved for the wrong variable. they maximized for bankster profits, not main street profits like they should have.
Odie Hugh Manatee
I have a feeling that
Toonsesthe Repubs are going to get a chance to finish driving the car off of the cliff after this fall. Of course, if that happens then it will be the fault of Obama and the Democrats. As we drive off the cliff and things quickly go to shit, the manic progressives will blame the Democrats for being weak and losing to the Repubs in 2010 while the Repubs will blame the Democrats for being obstructionist and not letting them ‘do the right thing’ and fix our ailing nation. Our MSM will make sure that everyone understands exactly who is to blame, the Democrats. Like I told our daughter, we can’t do anything about it but vote Democrat and hope for the best while expecting the worst.
We aren’t driving, we’re only along for the ride.
Thanks to CNN & all those network news channels, people think the stock market = economy.
I earn the nearly the same hourly wage I entered the professional world at in 1989, and with 50% the hours with no end in sight. And I was lucky and plucky to get this job. Fuck Bush. He killed my life.
Not gonna crab on your opinion and speculation. I will posit that they were focused on macroeconomics-the big industries, big banking, etc. Most people thought the world was headed to a major financial collapse. I waver between derision and plausibility. But since your point was job creation, I was pointing out a jobs bill that is still sitting there, wandering the halls of the Senate like a drunk sorority sister at 4am. There has been some motion via Congress at the press of the administration, even speeches, so it’s not that there’s ignorance of the need for job creation.
Chad N Freude
I don’t think it’s that crass. The bankers are Subject Matter Experts (a term much in vogue these days, particularly in government programs). The thing that the administration seems to have overlooked is that if you’re going to rely on SMEs to tell you how to do stuff, they have to be free of conflicts of interest.
the president has the power to do many things. he could, for example, fire his worthless economic team. he could attempt to publicly make the case for more stimulus. he could propose more legislation – if Congress votes it down, make sure the people know what happened.
the president is not a passive player in this. or, he shouldn’t be.
don’t apologize for his shitty performance here. demand better.
I work with 20 somethings. For the most part, they think olds like myself are too busy blaming Obama & they “are still gonna blame Bush because he did it”. At least, that’s what they told me yesterday during our political chats. It’s not every last one in America, certainly not academic, but I was surprised how broad a spectrum of under 30s felt that way. Plus, they are motivated to vote.
Chad N Freude
@cleek: The administration doesn’t seem to be adept at making cases, and they don’t do very well at shining the spotlight on congressional obstruction.
When you don’t know jacksquaticil about how stuff works, the simplest explanation is the one your mind will latch onto.
When this simplest explanation is offered by the party which is always wrapped in a flag, carrying a cross, and your granddaddy paid unflinching loyalty to… the reluctance to believe any ill of it meets with the same defensive titanium wall that would be triggered if someone claimed your mother was actually a Russian spy.
And when you are a pale person from a small town (in mind, if not in population count) an African American from ChiTown might as well be wearing an aluminum jumpsuit and six inch platforms.
And then your brain explodes and you become a Palin Fan.
Wouldn’t now be a fantastic time to introduce some color-coded terror alert levels?
Chad N Freude
@roshan: It’s not October yet.
So, you are saying that people see Bootsy Collins when they look at Obama?
This just sounds like a recipe for a party to me. Then again, I’m a Jamerican from NYC who’s worn gold platforms.
Curse you Omnes, you beat me! But wouldn’t you vote for the Funkadelic Party?
@General Stuck: Yes, well I do occasionally think about what the last two years would have looked like economically had McCain been elected and we’d been following gooper prescriptions for the economy. Undoubtedly, it’s been world’s upon world’s better. But the problem remains, I think, that with this economic team the debate has been framed in very unhelpful ways to the Dems. You say we’re in for a world of painful deflation, and I would concur, but it did not have to be this painful. And it is certainly the case that the Dems did not need to own the deflation, as they now do due to the political approach Obama and the Dems have adopted.
@ruemara: Hope you are correct about that motivation, because that’s what I’ve seen lacking among the students. To me, they seem understandably beaten down and more than a little frightened by the economic collapse.
@Chad N Freude: You’re almost certainly correct. I was vaguely remembering some stories from early in the administration about how Rahm thought he was locking up the financial sector for the Dems.
@roshan: Yeah, what’s the prob?
Wall St opens higher on jobs data
REUTERS — 13 MINUTES AGO
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks opened higher on Friday after a better-than-expected jobs report lifted investor optimism on the economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 93.55 points, or 0.91 percent, to 10,413.65. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 10.55 points, or 0.97 percent, to 1,100.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 25.77 points, or 1.17 percent, to 2,225.78.
(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)
glad to hear it. As I said, I don’t trust the NYT to be right about this.
Just another in the ever-deafening chorus of prophetizers of doom. Gotta keep that print media relevant, dontchaknow.
Dude, we created 67,000 private sector jobs last month, more than expected, albeit not enough to keep pace with population growth. And that was from losing 700,000 a month when Obama took office. And I don’t agree that Obama has been complacent, nor that terrible with messaging. That really is of little benefit when the country senses itself that the good jobs are just gone to the third world, and the ones that are being created are shitty.
If you want to hop on the Obama fail bandwagon, then have at it. I won’t be. Because I doubt his economic team is to blame for the country seeming to turn back to the wingnuts. I put that onus on those who will vote for the GOP, and those who will not vote, because they are disappointed, lazy, or angry at Obama, or whatever. They are responsible for their vote and who gets elected in this country, and are free to be as idiotic as they want. And if they so stupid as to put the wingers back in charge, I will submit they are too stupid to be swayed by anything Obama might say better than he has.
@jwb: You’d have to be pretty stupid to schedule a major announcement on initiatives for the economy and jobs and say, “According to our political calculus, we are going to stand pat.”
I know the numbers are not encouraging, but I don’t think it follows that the administration is going to be happy with 10 percent unemployment to appease it’s bankerly friends. If Obama is talking about building the middle class in a speach about ending the war in Iraq like he did this week, I think he has some initiatives up his sleeve. It would be nice if the Sentate would pass the frickin jobs bill that is already before it.
Good God, might as well watch the world through the lens of severe head trauma.
Yeah, but SMEs in what area. There’s a hell of a lot of difference between the area and level of expertise for a CEO type who probably came up from trading, and the expertise of say the GS head economist, who has been pretty spot on as far as the course of the economy has gone.
@General Stuck: I don’t believe that Obama in general is the big fail. And I don’t think complacency is quite the right word either, even for the economy, except for maybe Geithner (though the man I really despise is Summers). I would call it rather leaving the impression of a lack of urgency. And I’ve always been bothered by how badly the Admin’s economic team underestimated the peak unemployment and the fact that Summers apparently vetoed discussion of the more dire economic scenarios, which actually turned out to be far closer to what actually happened. The Admin’s economic team seems guilty of more than a little unicorn thinking of its own… BTW, those job numbers announced today are still not good, even if they exceeded expectations.
On the other hand, we do know that Obama plays the long game, and we know from experience that his long-term strategy has usually proved exceptionally sound, so I remain committed to the idea that he knows what he’s doing in terms of long-term politics.
If it had come down to Bush v. Clinton, I would have voted for George.
The other George.
Chad N Freude
@daveNYC: Sung to the tune of “My Favorite Things”: Summers and Geithner and crisp apple strudels …
@Omnes Omnibus: Yep.
Mind you, we could definitely use more FUNK!
I think Stuck is having an epiphany here. Go on Stuck, tell us how to win this November, we’re listening.
Damn, exactly what I was going to say! There can’t be a second dip since the first one never really saw an uptick.
I am with ruemara. It only counts as a second dip if you think that the stock market is the same as the economy. If the economy actually means people with, you know, jobs, this is just a giant trough of fail from the get-go, with no end in sight. NM is looking at over10% budget cuts in education over the last year, with another 2-3% on pause because of the Ed. Bill. Things have been getting steadily worse, not worse, then better, then worse again.
No, no, I think we are pretty well funked over already :)
What does this mean? I keep hearing people say it.
@Chad N Freude:
Why do you think that is, exactly?
In order for there to be a double dip, the economy needs to recover somewhat. This isn’t a W it’s an L.
Chad N Freude
@Corner Stone: I dunno, maybe because Obama plays the long game?
Listen, this can’t be one of those “if only the czar had known” deals. Obama is a smart individual, and can look at a couple key statistics and figure out, at a 30,000ft view, what’s what.
At some point you kind of have to conclude the outcomes we’re seeing are consistent with a certain mindset.
@Chad N Freude:
I’d like to see the playbook because I think he’s reading it upside down.
Well technically it’s double-dip if the economy came out of recession in between. There’s still a big difference between ‘coming out of recession’ and ‘economy doing well’.
It’s really depressing when the best case for Obama is that McCain would have been worse.
“Nothing can be done!”
I know that I, for one, wanted a fuchsia pony.
The “economic issues” are the only ones that matter! Jeebus.
Remember when Dear Leader said “it could be worse”…?
Well now look, darned if he wasn’t right!
Went to a Meet the Teacher night last night for an elementary school. There’s no Art teacher or class, no librarian, in PE they have 1 aide for every 60 kids, they canceled the Fall Fundraising Carnival, if a teacher wants a projector in class they have to buy it themselves, and there was a knock down drag out fight over the summer to keep Music class. So now it’s once a week.
It was more than a little depressing, to say the least.
@jwb: I thought the best part of that article was where he said:
Chad N Freude
@Corner Stone: I can see the day when NGOs that provide educational facilities to third world countries set up shop in the US.
Chad N Freude
@Corner Stone: This is what happens when government interferes in the free market. Do you know who else managed unemployment in Germany?
I agree with cleek. It’s already here. The data continues to look bad and heavily manipulated.
Check out the post Employment Situation 9/3.
A humble proposal* to bring out the dem base for November. Now, can we haz votes?
*-To be delivered in Jan 2013.
@Chad N Freude:
And what’s sad is I’m in a very solid middle-middle class district with significant tranches of upper-middle middle class neighborhoods. And yet they’ve asked the state to waive the 22-1 mandatory ratio and have started implementing a plan to remove 17 teachers over the next 2 years through attrition. The budget presentation was a joke, and they were talking about keeping a reserve of 60 day operating expenses instead of the normal 90 day.
@Chad N Freude: It sure as hell wasn’t Obama.
joe from Lowell
There is no double dip, John, and these numbers prove it. The slowdown in the recovery is now three months long, and we continue to add jobs.
We dodged the double dip, but the recovery is still weak.
@joe from Lowell:
JC’s question isn’t “are we having one”, it’s “will people start assuming we will have one”
Did I read the blurb up top wrong? We overall lost 54K jobs, correct?
So it may be accurate to say we’re losing less jobs overall but it doesn’t seem correct to say we’re adding jobs.
Chad N Freude
@Corner Stone: Private sector is up, government is down — state and local have no money & the fed census temp work is over.
It might be conventional wisdom now, but the number of private employer jobs was higher than expected.
Chad N Freude
@Chad N Freude: Adding (can’t edit): Net gain in private sector, net loss overall. If you believe that what we need is more private sector jobs, the report is encouraging. If you believe that net is the only real statistic, not so much.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
There is only one more unemployment report before the election. The Dems will be running on 9+% unemployment and there is nothing that can be done about that.
@Chad N Freude:
I am of the belief that anyone who needs a paycheck that will allow them to pay bills and provide for their family could not give one shit less if it was for the government or private.
So yes, I believe the actual number is what’s actually important.
And separately, IMO I despise all the rhetoric pimping private industry, and attracting private sector investment, and how the government can’t create jobs.
@Bruce (formerly Steve S.):
@joe from Lowell: The slowdown in the recovery is now three months long, and we continue to add jobs.
There hasn’t been a ‘recovery’, only a slowing of the continuing downturn (the curve is flattening but still descending). A recovery (in normal English) means that we’re adding more jobs than we’re losing. That’s not what’s happening (unless you’re only talking about private sector jobs).
They see that, and hear this.
@Hal (GT): That author also advocates that
He’s bats**t insane.
I see things the same way as you.
I don’t see how one could call this a double dip. We’d have had to climb up and fall again for that and I don’t/haven’t seen any economic climbing. And due to the lack of enough stimulus by the government I don’t see us climbing out of this hole any time soon. Now I wonder, if the Obama team believes in supply side or voodoo economics then maybe they are just letting the market find it’s equilibrium. You know, jobs will be created by business when there is work to do and the government just needs to stay out of the way for that to happen. What I’m afraid of is that the market has found it’s equilibrium. And this is as good as it gets.
Give me a HO if you’ve got your funky bus fare…HO HO HO
There’s a double dip bus comin’ down the street
Movin pretty fast
So kinda shuffle your feet
Get on the bus and pay your fare
And tell the driver that you’re
Goin’ to a Double Dip Affair
Fe Fi Fo Fum
Well I’ll be darn here it comes
The Double Dip Bus is on the street
You’d better get off the curb
Move your feet