The justly renowned Al Giordano has a post up explaining why the media comparisons between the 1994 elections and this year’s amount largely to the Media Village’s nostalgia for its own political golden age:
… Back then, network TV news and daily newspapers were all powerful in determining the political discourse in the United States: ABC, CBS and NBC, and their local affiliates, were royalty. Their news shows were the most important slot for candidates to place their campaign ads, because that’s where most of the voters could be found each night. Network TV news and daily newspapers still enjoyed the illusion of authority. People actually believed that what the local TV newscaster or the editorial page writer said was true!…
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I take you on this stroll down this Amnesia Lane because the new media landscape makes it less likely that electoral history in 2010 will so cleanly repeat what occurred in 1994. I’m not saying that it is impossible that the Republicans could take the House or the Senate or both. What I’m saying is that if it does happen, it won’t happen because the dominant national media discourse (as it did in 1994) stokes an electoral stampede, but, rather, it will happen because one party outmaneuvered the other, one contest at a time, in 50 or 60 key congressional districts and senate contests, more or less.
Do go read all of Giordano’s post, where he dissects the various polls behind the media spin and names the eight states “where the control of the Senate will be decided” (plus four possible wild cards), and provides a bracingly astringent corrective to the torrents of HFCS Kool-Aid being slopped about on both ends of the political spectrum:
… A similar political logic is at play in the House. If there are 50 or 60 or 70 congressional districts where one party might wrestle the seat from the other, that means that 80 to 85 percent of Americans live in districts where the incumbent party will almost certainly retain control. In the coming weeks I will try to produce a list of the remaining 15 to 20 percent of congressional districts that are in play, because that is where the action is going to be this fall…
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In those closer contests, a lot depends on the individual candidates and the competence of their campaigns. Organizing for America – Obama’s grassroots political army, now part of the Democratic party – has made lists of all the first time voters from 2008 in each of those contested districts and a lot will ride on whether they can be inspired or pulled by the ear to actually vote. That’s not going to happen because of duplicitous scare tactics. That kind of thing only happens the way it did in 2008: through person-to-person recruitment, effective door knocking, phone banking and the deployment of community organizers in social networks, and not just the online variety.
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Another factor that cuts somewhat against GOP chances to retake the House or Senate is the dysfunction in its own party ranks, between the Republican establishment and the in-house radicals broadly painted as “tea party” factions… [T]here is a lot of internecine bad blood flowing inside the GOP ranks. And in cases where the more radical “tea party” associated candidate won many primaries, the sheer battiness of the nominee produced is going to scare some voters away (and this phenomenon could still happen in some contests yet to have their primaries, such as the Republican senate primary in Delaware).
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In this sense, a political parody site like Wonkette has become more relevant to the 2010 midterm elections than the entirety of the so-called Netroots, which in 2006 became a kind of kingmaker in the Democrats’ midterm electoral triumphs… day in, day out, Wonkette is producing wonderful caricature profiles of the insane class of GOP congressional and senate nominees this year, and is actually driving the media discourse about them.
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Likewise, the cable TV political shows on Comedy Central – The Daily Show and The Colbert report – have become far more relevant to the national political discourse than any host on MSNBC or even Fox, which has gone down the Glenn Beck rabbit hole in a manner that only increases the dysfunction inside the GOP. Fox and the “tea party” minions it has stoked are now the Republican Party’s own version of the 2010 Netroots: mirrors on each side of the partisan divide that seem more concerned with asserting their own illusory relevance and factional power than with actually getting out there and winning general elections in November.
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In the cases of Wonkette and Comedy Central the defining edge is, of course, a sense of humor, or, more importantly, not having lost one. My own coverage of the upcoming US midterm elections will try to adhere more closely to theirs than to the humorless pundits, talk show hosts and bloggers of the right and the left. That took a summer of turning all of them off to rewire my own news gathering habits and get back to the basics of researching what the actual numbers really show us…
BR
Good to see Al is back.
Josie
What a relief to have Al back and to read his take on this. It is important to read his analysis before deciding where to put any money you might be willing to spend.
chicago dyke
That kind of thing only happens the way it did in 2008: through person-to-person recruitment, effective door knocking, phone banking and the deployment of community organizers in social networks, and not just the online variety.
this is the part that will be interesting to me. i’m very curious about how well the administration will do the whole midterm GOTV thingee. they seem to have a novel approach to getting the base excited about doing that.
Chris
Maybe Al’s got the media nostalgia pegged accurately, but that doesn’t change the fact that the establishment media does have a dominant role in setting narratives, and that they take their cues from conservatives far more than liberals, or hell, even moderates.
Remember, we live in a media-political world where Rasmussen spent the first eighteen months of the Obama presidency ginning up GOP-leaning numbers to drive the strongest Republican candidates into races and scare Democratic incumbents out (see North Dakota). And nobody in the establishment media bothered to mention the odd coincidence of one particular pollster pushing polls leaning one way, which just so happened to push some congressional seats all in the same direction; that’s just not something you’d have known unless you were reading blogs, or a serious political junkie with absurdly-well-tuned antennae.
General Stuck
Al is right. In 1994, and except for a few short stints of the wingnuts controlling the senate, hadn’t had a House Majority in 40 years, that’s 40 years to bullshit the American public without having to be responsible for governance via the legislative branch, and not having a recent record of being in charge. In 2010, it has been only 2 years since they controlled everything, including the WH and House and Senate.
People may be frustrated with the economy and that Obama hasn’t fixed it like it was, but every poll still lays the onus on Bush and the Republicans for screwing it up, and by a wide margin.
I forgot the article I read the other day at Time mag, on how much trouble Obama was in and the dems, and how the wingers were set for a tidal wave, but the Time’s own recent poll had Obama at 46 to 45 approval.
The economy will cost the dems some votes and some seats, but most of the seats lost will come from former red states and districts, where tribal concerns trump every thing else, including the economy. So it is an open question whether the xenophobe crazy vote will show up in such large numbers to grab a large number of purple districts, and if that will be enough to offset current lack of dem enthusiasm.
But the campaign hasn’t started yet, and we just came out of crazy August, where the wingnuts and tea tards fill up the teevee screens with their bizarre and racially soaked antics. And the msm, being bored to tears reports every second of it. Dems will lose seats, but I still stick to my prior prediction of 25 in the House, and 5 in the senate.
Chris
“Fox and the “tea party” minions it has stoked are now the Republican Party’s own version of the 2010 Netroots: mirrors on each side of the partisan divide that seem more concerned with asserting their own illusory relevance and factional power than with actually getting out there and winning general elections in November.” -Al
I might quibble a bit with that claim, that there’s much of a parallel between the activists and arguments of each side’s base. Would anyone like to compare the number of Republican officeholders who have had to kiss ass and/or apologize to far-right political/media activists and groups (e.g., Rush Limbaugh, teabaggers) after initially downplaying their importance – to the number of Democratic officeholders who have had to kiss ass and/or apologize to left/Democratic-base (I refuse to describe the liberal equivalent as “far-left” because, well, it’s not) activists/groups?
Sure, maybe each side’s base voters/loyalists seem equally capable of being ignored by each party’s establishment, but one party can say, “FUCK YOU!!!!” to its base and not just get away with it, but be applauded by the rest of the political-media class.
(hint: it’s the party whose “Please, sir, may we have another? (smack!)” supporters are currently populating the DailyKos most-recommended diary list with the Britney Spears-ish position, “I just think we have to support our president.”)
(Also, the far-right has been plenty talented at shaping the narratives amplified by the media despite lacking the White House, being down eight seats in the House, and being about one vote away from unable to filibuster in the Senate… yet we’re only to be concerned when they can threaten to win elections? What about when they inhibit everyone else from *governing* for two years, even without having won the last two elections?) (And hell, why weren’t Democrats able to do something similar when they were similarly bereft of power? I mean, *aside* from the simple and obvious answer, “Because they are *Democrats*.”)
But no, there’s no larger, corrupt media narrative screwing Democrats electorally and most of the country economically, and I’m sure that individual races will come out based on the strengths and weaknesses of each individual candidate, and Democrats will prevail without countering any kind of larger themes or mood or acknowledging what wackos Republicans have become (because it’s in their interests to prevent Democrats from doing anything productive).
Seriously, I really hope Al’s right, but I hope you’ll excuse me if I don’t go betting a lot of money on that.
david mizner
Giordano’s right, of course, that generic candidate polls don’t get you very far, cause voters choose between human beings, more or less, but there’s an equally true truism: an election is a referendum on the party in power.
This —
— goes too far in that it denies the very concept of of waves, which exist in politics, and they’re usually created by the economy, a word that’s absent from his post.
I agree with him, though, that the GOP’s taking the House will create a backlash and be good for Obama — a fact not lost on Rahm, for whom it’s always 1994.
Sheila
Thank you for this, Anne Laurie. Daily poll watching is akin to day trading, only what is lost is peace of mind rather than money. Personally, I would prefer to lose money.
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Josie: So Al is the most trustworthy guy on the planet?
Phil
I kind of feel bad for some of you people. You’re in such a deep state of denial, I suspect several of you will literally cry yourself to sleep come November 2nd.
Newsflash: Republicans were tied with the Democrats on the last generic congressional ballot on the last poll taken before 1994, and this was using a likely voter model. They went on to win 50+ seats.
The GOP is now ahead by 5 (on average)) based on registered voter models and this is before most pollsters switch to the likely voter model as is normal two months before elections. The general estimate among pollsters is that the likely voter model will add another 2-3 points to the conservative side because of the enthusiasm gap this year. So if we take an average of the polls, we get about a 7-8 points advantage for the GOP versus the zero point advantage in 1994.
So a tie led to 50+ seats, but a 7-8 point advantage is only going to lead to…25? (as the previous poster clearly is hoping for) You’re not just lying to me. You’re lying to yourselves. 60 is the new 40 – as in House seat gains. Anything less than 60 should be considered mildly disappointing at this point for the GOP.
For every “conservative” no one has ever heard of like this Kain guy on your blog, 5 former liberals are now moving to the conservative side this year. So pardon me if I don’t give a shit that some no-name blogger I’ve never heard of who apparently supported the “magic multiplier bunny” stimulus package and the Obamacare bill is “switching” sides and becoming a liberal.
He can go down with the Titanic for all I give a shit. Time is running out gentleman. Tick tock tick tock.
jwb
@Chris: “Maybe Al’s got the media nostalgia pegged accurately, but that doesn’t change the fact that the establishment media does have a dominant role in setting narratives, and that they take their cues from conservatives far more than liberals, or hell, even moderates.”
We don’t actually know very much about how people are consuming media these days. Agreed that we know that establishment media has a dominant role in setting the narratives of the dominant media and that the dominant media takes their cues from conservatives, but what we don’t know is how exactly that is percolating out into the nation as a whole or how a large swath of the population is getting its information or what information its getting. I’ve also wondered occasionally about polls, which have been increasingly having difficult getting people to answer the phone, which means they are having to apply more and more statistical corrections. All of this is to say that I think the Dems are likely to get clobbered in November because of the economy, but I wouldn’t actually be all that surprised if that prediction turned out to be spectacularly wrong and the results this year mimic those in 1934, because these are not normal times.
david mizner
@Phil:
Giordano is a self-described anti-capitalist radical who can’t seem to stop support neo-liberal policies.
Here’s his problem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08S4poMGvwA&feature=player_embedded
Josie
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: I sense sarcasm in your question, but, to be perfectly honest, the answer is “yes” on politics and on journalism. No one can be right all the time, but Al has had a pretty solid read on things since I started following him during the Democratic primaries.
jwb
@Phil: We’ll survive just fine, Phil. Now go fuck yourself.
Omnes Omnibus
@jwb: Succinct.
roshan
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Let’s just call that the “anecdote of the year”.
And the crying part, someone somewhere is always chopping up those onions I say.
Phil
And one more thing Kain. I saw as part of your sendoff that you think conservatism is not “wonky” enough for your tastes. I’ll take your Paul Krugman and raise you a Paul Ryan any day of the week you dumb piece of shit. Are you going to deny that Krugman is the leading economic thinker on the Left these days? If no, tell me who is. (The White House’s top economic advisor, Jared Bernstein was a music major in college who never even took an undergraduate econ course. Did you know that? Well, now you do! Go look it up yourself if you want to verify). If yes, then take a look at what your leading economic “wonky” thinker of the Left had to say about the stimulus:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/american-recovery-and-reinvestment-act-keynesian/8/26/2010/id/29807
So there’s your “wonkery” asshole. Your leading economic thinker, who is heavily invested in his Keynesian “magic multiplier bunnies” thinks we can fix the economy by pushing fucking buttons. And now that it’s been an obvious failure to anyone with a 1st grade education, you’ve decided to bless it. It’s wonkery!
So remind me again why I’m supposed to give a shit that some dumb bastard I’ve never even heard of, and who happened to fall for a snake oil sales pitch is no longer a “conservative”?
You and John Cole deserve each other. Maybe you can cuddle on November 2nd.
Chad S
Best example of this: 538 and the CW is that Reid is probably going to lose his seat. The new GOPmussen poll has him with a modest lead over Angle.
It really comes down to money for Congressional elections. If you have it, you can throw cash into marginal races and hope to pick off a couple unexpected ones or tie down your opponents’ lesser resources defending seats that they didn’t budget for in June. If you’re behind in the polls, the cash advantage allows you to ramp up ads and GOTV in close races. And this year, the DNC is throwing out huge amounts for GOTV across the board(for example, they have a 50 mil GOTV fund just for House/Senate races and that doesn’t count any outside GOTV money or all the GOTV official efforts) while the RNC/NRCC/NRSC can barely scrape together 20 million for their entire GOTV effort(doesn’t count outside groups).
Will the political environment sink some dems who normally would have won? Sure. But the cash advantage will almost certainly save a lot of them.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
You know, if it wasn’t such a precarious time for our country, I might enjoy the show of watching the establishment party trying to actually control teabaggers in Congress.
But not right now.
liberal
@Phil:
That’s funny, because it was PK who showed that PR was a complete fraud.
Yes, because Krugman is at best center/left.
burnspbesq
@Phil:
Your gloating is both premature and unattractive, and the party you support has nothing to offer the American people. Either explain why rational people would vote Republican, or go fuck yourself.
Omnes Omnibus
@Phil: Dude, why are you attacking ED Kain in this thread? Also, it is not our fault if you haven’t heard of Al Giordano, maybe you should read more widely. Enjoy your weekend of sputtering, frothing rage.
liberal
@burnspbesq:
That’s not true. The Rethugs have death and destruction to offer.
My fave is of course the Onion headline from Jan 2001; my loving wife had that cover framed for me: Bush: ‘Our Long National Nightmare of Peace and Prosperity Is Finally Over’.
General Stuck
Phil takes jerk off to a whole new level.
burnspbesq
@Phil:
I did look it up. If you’re going to blatantly lie about things, you might want to lie about things that aren’t so easily verifiable.
Jared Bernstein is BIDEN’s economic advisor. That makes him about as influential as … you.
OK, we’ve established that you’re an idiot AND a liar. Wanna go for the trifecta?
Violet
@Phil:
You’re posting in the wrong thread. Anne Laurie is the author of this post. Kain’s post on not calling himself a conservative is several below this one. If you want to get his attention, you should head there.
Phil
@roshan:
Let me introduce some more pesky facts into the discussion. Here’s the latest partisan trends survey:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
The current gap is 35% registered Democrats, 33.8% registered Republicans, a gap of 1.2. In December 2008, right after Obama’s election, the gap was 41.6% Democrats, 32.8% Republicans, a gap of 7.8. Go back a little further to May of 2008, and the gap was 41.7 to 31.6, or 10.1 point separation.
Throw in all the registered independents who voted 2 to 1 for Scott Brown, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell and I’d say my 5 to 1 number is on the safer side.
To slightly paraphrase Stephen Colbert, facts seem to have a conservative media bias these days I guess.
liberal
@david mizner:
That’s bad. Between the sucky economy and the midterm election effect, I expect the Dems to take heavy losses. (Of course, I think anyone voting for a Rethuglican oughta have his head examined.)
Citizen_X
@Phil:
Now that’s wonky. I surrender to your superior analysis!
Also, you keep addressing Kain. Kain’s not home.
Amanda in the South Bay
@Phil:
Any movement that relies on Paul Ryan as a public intellectual is pretty much fucked.
I’m cowering in the face of his ferocious intellect.
Phil
@burnspbesq:
Because Chris Christie of NJ and Bob McDonnell of VA have demonstrated what conservative governance would look like these days. It includes:
1) balancing the budget
2) having lower than average unemployment rates
3) reducing the size of government
4) increasing the number of private sector jobs
OH NOES!!!!
burnspbesq
@Phil:
Trifecta! You’re an idiot and a liar and you believe that Rasmussen polling has anything to do with reality.
Wanna go for a four-bagger?
Step aside, folks – Phil is on a roll. This can only get funnier as it continues.
liberal
@Phil:
What good are facts when you can’t read them?
At issue is your claim about liberals becoming conservatives. The facts you cite about party registration don’t mention those labels.
arguingwithsignposts
@Phil:
Bwahahahaha
roshan
@Phil, the dipshit:
Really?
Looked it up, and it’s more like this, dipshit.
liberal
@Phil:
LOL! What do you think drives the VA economy forward, moron? (Hint: it’s the largest Federal department.)
Amanda in the South Bay
Actually, if you want to get all anal about degrees, I have a BS in economics, from at least as good as college as Paul Ryan got his from, but I don’t go around pretending to be any sort of public intellectual. For someone who cares about the degrees that economic advisors have, I don’t see any grad degrees behind the name of the Catholic wunderboy from Ohio.
Phil
@burnspbesq:
And yet Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight uses his polls quite prominently in his forecasting model, and was one of the most accurate forecasters (along with Rasmussen) of the previous election.
But you’re right, I should completely disregard the opinion of a highly accurate conservative pollster and highly accurate liberal statistician and replace their knowledge with a random commentator on a liberal blog – ie you.
morzer
Look. Giordano means well, but he’s too optimistic in this post. He ignores the fact that the internet works for Republicans as well as Democrats, that the economy is much worse than in 1994, and that in 1994, we didn’t have the rabid anti-Muslim/black president craziness. I am sure he thinks he’s being tough and bringing the chicken little people back into the battle, but the polls for Democrats have made grim reading for months now, Obama aside.
FWIW: I don’t see the GOP taking the Senate, but a 53-47 split wouldn’t surprise me at all. As for the House, I think the GOP might fall short of the majority by 4-5 seats, but I am less confident in that regard.
Mark S.
@Phil:
You do that, you stupid motherfucker.
burnspbesq
@Phil:
That would be the same Chris Christie who screwed the public school children of New Jersey out of hundreds of millions of Federal dollars because he insisted on personally rewriting the grant application at the last minute and submitted a non-conforming application? Yes?
As a graduate of one of the New Jersey public schools that would have gotten some of that money, let me just add another resounding and hearty “fuck you.” THAT’s the kind of governance you’re in favor of?
That’s four. Wish I could stay around to see what else you’ve got, but I might hurt myself laughing.
Phil
@roshan:
That’s great. Romer has stepped down. I guess if you really want to say Larry Summers is the highest one left you could. Except the Left hates Larry Summers with a visceral passion. So the one who has the President’s ear the most would be Bernstein. From his Wikipedia profile:
.
So the guy without ANY formal training in Economics is Joe Biden’s economic advisor. Huzzah!
But he’s mighty wonky!
General Stuck
@Phil: Rasmussen tightens up near elections to save their rep, but in between they are Fox News polling company. And btw, Rass now has Reid leading or tied with Angle after being behind a generic wingnut by 20 points or more, you all can run your loon candidates, but you can’t hide. Tea party is the best weapon for dems in decades, keep up the good work.
Mark S.
@General Stuck:
I think you’re forgetting that 87,000,000 (I could be off by a little) teabaggers showed up to Beck’s prayer revival last week.
Mike E
Phil has Brick Oven Bill locked up in his basement!
Phil
@General Stuck:
The Left is funny about Rasmussen. Apparently they are quite perplexed by the concept of likely voters vs registered voters and why this might make Rasmussen’s numbers slightly more GOP friendly this year. Of course, this also ignores that his numbers have been less GOP friendly than Gallup in recent months, but hey, facts have a conservative pollster bias these days or something.
As for Angle, I don’t remember claiming she would win. In fact, I think she will lose.
But pretty much every other Tea Party candidate will win – Buck, Miller, Paul, Rubio, etc.
I won’t be so bold as to guarantee Feingold and Patty Murray in Washington will lose also, but I’d take even odds and bet money that they do.
Ripley
Phil: Brick Oven Bill called. He wants his psychosis back.
Oscar Leroy
Ah, yes, the media, America’s #1 problem.
Bender
Wow, I thought I’d heard whistling in the dark before, but this is bringing the whole string section!
So this Giordano fellow bases this whole “Cheer Up!” article on several wholly unproved assertions:
1) The national news media made the Democrats lose in 1994, by, y’know, by reporting what the Republicans plans were. Those devious bastards! (C+-student journalist alert! It was the “Contract with America” not the “Contract for America.” Googling ain’t hard, pal…) But that’s OK, because Big Media is dead or dying — it’s all about the Intertrons now! NO WAY the internet will report what candidates say they’ll do if elected!
2) This election isn’t a referendum on vastly unpopular national Democrats. It’s a local election, with local Democrats explaining to local people why they voted in lockstep with vastly unpopular national Democrats.
3) Big Lefty Media is already trying to help out the Democrats by publishing polls saying how bad they will get killed in November. This will motivate Democrats to vote! Just like the doomy-gloomy pre-election polls in 1994 motivated the Dem…oh. Besides, didn’t this, ummm, challenged writer just get finished telling us that the national news media were pretty much irrelevant? So how will they energize the…oh, never mind.
I hear violas!
morzer
Judging from his opus so far, Phil aspires to be a jerk-off, but can’t remember where he left the instruction booklet.
Ripley
@Mike E: Converging thought balloons.
General Stuck
In your wildest dreams, except for Miller, the others are in the same boat as Angle, that blew a huge generic gop lead and are running at or near even. When they are forced to actually come out of hiding and debate, it will likely be a similar horror show as Brewer in AZ for gov. These people are fucking nutbags that even a staunch gop voter will wince at voting for.
Please send more of them to the trail, like the lady in Delaware, whackjob extraordinaire.
Bender
But to be fair, he did study the double bass WITH ORIN O’BRIEN! Who needs training in economics to be an economics advisor? ORIN… FREAKING…O’BRIEN!
arguingwithsignposts
Alright, who left the door open on the troll cage?
Phil
Anyways, I need to run but in a way, I honestly do feel a bit sorry for you guys. Why? Because I’ve been there. I couldn’t believe the US electorate would be so naive as to elect a guy with no executive experience whatsoever and provide him with a blank check Congress. I looked at all the polls where conservative candidates were behind and just dismissed it as polls. In other words, I was engaging in the same fantasy and partisan hackery that you guys are doing today. And we all know how that turned out. So in a way, yes I feel a bit bad for those of you clinging to some false hope that “they’re just polls”.
Silver’s blog is a must read because it unclogs the bullshit. Sure a single poll is meaningless, but if you’re behind by 5-10 points in poll after poll after poll after poll, then guess what? You’re going to lose.
See for yourself come November!
phoebes-in-santa fe
Part pf the problem with the press and the Inside the Beltway media is that there does not seem to be any nuance in their predictions.
Look, we’re going to lose seats in November. BUT, quite a few of those will be seats we probably shouldn’t have picked up in the first place. Sweeps of 2006 and 2008 put a lot of seats from Republican to Democrat that will go back to the Republicans. Perriello on VA is a prime example of a seat we really shouldn’t have picked up or continue to count being ours. There are probably 20 or so other seats around the country in the same category.
But, when the seats go back to the Republicans, no reporting – or at least what I’ve seen so far – makes that point. No nuance at all.
I’m also a little skeptical of individual races in purple districts going Republican if the voters see what nut-cases many of these Republican nominees are. Sure, Michelle Bachmann will win again; her district appears to be as nutty as she is. It’s a solid red district, but I think in the next few weeks, as the Democrats gear up, some of the purple ones may be more in play than the “pundits” think.
I mean, the ads just about write themselves. Dems should start out by pointing out that Obama has done quite a bit in his first two years. Despite all the catter-walling last summer about “death panels” and other TeaBagging nonsense, the Democrats passed a HCR. Maybe it wasn’t as “progressive” as the Dems on the left wanted, but it passed and will be amended to become better. Same with financial reform and other legislation passed this year.
“Want to go back to really bad lousy times? Just vote Republican”.
Amanda in the South Bay
@Phil:
Wow, I had no idea Nelson, Landrieu and Lieberman were orthodox liberals who were handing Obama a blank check to do whatever he wants!!!!!
I stand in awe of your superior intellect.
Phil
@General Stuck:
See my post I just did on polls. Paul, Buck, etc have been ahead in every single poll since June. That’s before pollsters start switching to likely voters models, where the numbers only get uglier for you.
Say hello to Senator Rand Paul for me next time you’re in Washington.
debit
Why is anyone paying any attention at all to Phil? His shtick is to come here, make vaguely menacing pronouncements that all end in “tick tock”. I mean, it’s just rather silly, isn’t it?
You know what I would like? I would like for any Republican lurkers to come out and tell me how great everything was for them in 2008. Gas prices at $4.00 and up, economy in free fall, job market barren, the housing bubble collapsing… Seriously, tell me how having Republicans in power made things so much better. Don’t talk about ideology, tell me how having Bush and Co in power improved your day to day life. Unless you’re in the top 2% tax bracket, I don’t think you honestly can.
roshan
@Phil, the dipshit:
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HaHa, Phil, do you masquerade as the user Jonroot on wikipedia?
Since it seems that Jonroot (or Phil, the dipshit?) has modified the wikipedia page of Jared Bernstein on January 8th, 2010 and added the line “He does not have a degree or any formal training in economics” to the Education Section of Bernstein’s Wiki.
The version prior to that didn’t carry that line. And the user, Jonroot, seems to be mighty interested in wiki pages belonging to the folks in the democratic party.
So, I ask you again, Phil, are you Jonroot?
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Josie: Yes there was. The fawning over Al is a bit much though, just like it is over anyone. He could do with out the “father knows best” tone. As others here have said, Al doesn’t even mention the economy in his piece. And that’s the elephant in the room.
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Amanda in the South Bay: Evan Bayh is pissed that you left him off that list.
General Stuck
@Phil: You guys will not win the senate, but may the House, but enjoy it while you can for no more than 2 years after the crazy fuckers start snipe hunts on Obama’s birth cert, try to repeal healthcare, and impeach Obama whilst shutting down the government, it will be your last hurrah before final death as a party. You can win on opposing everything with no ideas other than tax cuts, but you can’t govern that way, as we learned just two short years ago.
Mike E
@Ripley:
SickGreat minds think alike!Chad S
@Phil: Balancing the budget is easy when the Feds write you a 2 billion dollar check.
General Stuck
@Phil:
i doubt the stupid sumbitch can find Washington. But we shall see, he still has to come out from under the rock he’s been hiding under, at some point. Maybe if you gagged him, he might win.
Josie
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: I didn’t get a “father knows best” tone from his post. What I got from it is that the opera’s not over until the fat lady sings, and that, if we want to maintain any kind of lead in congress, we need to make contact personally with voters and/or donate to candidates who have a chance of pulling it out. It seems to me that he is making a good point about how to proceed in the campaign, not prognosticating as to who will actually win.
roshan
ANNE LAURIE, release my comment from moderation hell.
DO IT NOW!!
Mnemosyne
@Phil:
Yep, nothing says “successful Republican governor” like losing $200 million for your state’s schools because it was more important to you to reject the teachers’ unions than it was to have adequate funding for the schools.
If only all governors could lose money for their state as efficiently as Christie did!
Nick
@Phil: New Jersey’s unemployment rate is 9.7%, slightly higher than the national average.
whereas my current home state, New York, the tax and spend capital of the Mid Atlantic, we’re down at 8.2%.
Linda Featheringill
@jwb:
Add my name to that petition.
[Phil, go fuck yourself.]
Mnemosyne
@Mnemosyne:
Oh, and I forgot the part where Christie tried to blame everyone but himself, only to have it come out that he personally altered the application at the last minute and left out the information that would have gotten NJ the grant.
Good times, good times.
Konrad
Guys, stop feeding the troll. He only wants attention and to derail the discussion. You are not going to change his mind or get him to admit he’s wrong.
Linda Featheringill
@Mnemosyne:
Christie and the education grant.
And Ohio still appreciates all the support!
[we were next in line]
Linda Featheringill
Regarding the coming election:
I went to the DCCC site and explored the Red to Blue section. I made me feel good.
Go Blue!
currants
@Sheila: THIS!
I used to read 538 all the time–it made me more hopeful in the 2008 elections than reading or watching “news” online (especially because I was living abroad). But now it’s on the NYTimes site, and I have to admit I just don’t wander over there as much anymore.
roshan
Folks, there is some real malicious interference going on with the wiki pages belonging to folks from the democratic party. My comment reply to dipshit Phil has not yet left moderation. But please read it and see for yourself what’s going on.
Here is another instance of the user Jonroot modifying the wiki page of Donna Brazille, the campaign manager of Al Gore in 2000 elections.
User Jonroot added the word “failed” to the line below in the “Political Strategist” section of Brazille’s wiki page
The version prior to it had this:
And those are just the ones I caught with a brief look. I have not dug deeper yet. I just wanted people here to understand that even Wikipedia is under threat from the wingnuts and paid conservative thugs out there. This might just be the tip of the iceberg.
Linda Featheringill
One more thing and then I have to get back to work.
From the 55 word novels:
Abode
I hate my place. It’s so small, and it leaks every time it rains. Shoddy workmanship. But it’s the bugs. They’re the worst. I can’t seem to escape them. I can’t exactly call anyone, though. Even if I could, exterminators wouldn’t come near the place. Really, though, the blame is mine. I could’ve chosen cremation.
http://www.newtimesslo.com/special-issue/8/55-fiction-winners-08/view-this-years-winners/
FlipYrWhig
@Chris:
Because nearly half of the current crop of elected Democrats are basically Republicans, in ideology at least, only with a modest degree of tolerance on social issues and a passing interest in, you know, governing.
And because elected Democrats pretty much across the board believe in sportsmanship in politics, whereas elected Republicans enjoy fighting dirty. Conciliation and consensus-building are encoded in Democratic DNA. But 21st-century Republicans are thugs, and they relish that role. You’ll almost never hear a professional Democrat say, “We won, so this is our due.” Even when Republicans _lose_ they want to keep inflicting punishment on anything within arm’s reach.
Lawnguylander
Did someone here or anywhere else say that Al Giordano was “the most trustworthy guy in the world”? What a ridiculous question to ask because that person would be David Axelrod.
Al is pretty smart though and a good antidote to the emo kids and despair pushers. He never bought into the doom and gloom over HCR’s prospects of passing and back in 2007 he predicted that Obama’s superior organizational approach would win him the nomination. He understood the importance of OFA and his arguments convinced me that Obama would win and to join OFA. I’m back volunteering with them now and it feels great to be doing something positive and spending time with some of the same people from 2008. Better, I bet, than issuing forecasts of doom with barely disguised glee that your internet enemies will soon share your pain when the wingnuts take over again but I wouldn’t know for sure.
Has anyone else noticed that at places like DKos OFA is hated as much as the Club for Growth or the AFA by a certain contingent? Why? Is it because OFA is doing real world organizing work instead of organizing on Facebook and Twitter to swarm all over diaries that aren’t sufficiently anti-Obama/Democrats in the run-up to an election? That they’re busy being The Base instead of screaming that they are The Base? I’ve never heard a single person at an OFA event complain about getting punched or disrespected and insulted by people they’ve never met. It’s just not the kind of place that attracts chronic victims I guess.
Xecky Gilchrist
@Phil: Bookmark it, libs!
Bender
Of course, your argument is overly simple (and outright non-factual — post-Katrina, post-Ike gas averaged $1.68/gallon on Obama’s Inauguration day), but I’ll play:
This election is for Congress. As you should be aware, the Democrats have controlled both houses of Congress since January 2007.
January 2007:
Ave. Gas Price: $2.17/gallon
GDP: +3.5% for the quarter, annual growth of +3.4%
Unemployment: 4.6%
OK, now make your case to voters, on these terms of your own choosing, as to why Nancy Pelosi should still have the gavel.
morzer
@roshan:
A one word, factually accurate addition hardly seems proof of conspiracy.
bootsy
@roshan: Not surprising that Republican Astro Turfers want to try to make people forget the successful Al Gore campaign, which won the vote…
As per usual, the only support they have are corporate fat cats and the paid “Brooks Brothers Rioters” who are their trolls. With their credibility at an all-time low with the public, thanks to the Bush Recession, the Republicans are basically being bankrolled exclusively by Rove and the Koch Brothers and their various shell games. Not funding the Republican National Committee is fine because it just makes it easier to hide the corporate control (which never gets reported on by the corporate media, anyway). Contrast that with the record amount of small donations that Obama received from actual people when he was running for office.
(Edit: Yeah, the Citizens United Decision was bad, but I don’t think the Republicans even need to take advantage of it yet, their corporate masters are unreported on anyway)
burnspbesq
@Phil:
And exactly how does the second assertion logically follow from the first?
Josie
@Bender: The statement that the Democrats have controlled both houses is somewhat misleading. The Senate is sitting on 290 bills that have passed through the House of Representatives. I suspect that the reason for this is the Republicans’ unprecedented use of the filibuster to tie up government and prevent Democrats from making any progress. Having a majority in the Senate is no longer enough to exercise control.
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Josie: I wasn’t talking specifically about this post but his general tone(at least since two years ago .. when I first heard about him .. and began reading him).
eemom
@Lawnguylander:
This.
And THIS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0VDYhFvu78
lovingly dedicated to Mr. Giordano, speaker of reason and slayer of “pond scum”.
roshan
@morzer:
You see, morzer, that’s what puts wingnuts and conservatives ahead in this game of public opinion called politics.. You don’t give much thought to how a person associated with a democratic candidate looks like. For you, it’s as simple as stating facts. But for them, it matters. They pollute each and every piece of information available anywhere about the democrats and liberals with such simple additions as adding a word “failed”. You might wonder, how President Jimmy Carter reached the top of the worst person in the world list made by the conservatives, but I don’t.
As for the interference with Wikipedia by wingnuts, I just showed you a small instance of it. But believe me it’s going on on a bigger scale than this. You might be familiar with the DIGG story recently where liberal stories were buried with negative voting by wingnuts groups. I don’t have to prove anything more.
Josie
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: @Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: Yes, Al can be rather abrupt, especially when criticized, but I like that he does his homework and reasons through a subject pretty carefully. I also like the “no bullshit” factor in his writing. I feel that he is always honest, even when I don’t like what he says, and that he tries to be objective about all politicians, including Obama. I don’t think that I am fawning over him, just appreciating a good, honest journalist.
debit
@Bender: Wait, are you trying to tell me that all those times I pumped gas and paid over $4.00 a gallon it was my imagination?
As far as the Democrats controlling both houses; name me one bill were they managed to override Bush’s veto. Just one. Go ahead, I’m waiting. It couldn’t be that any bill they did manage to vote into law was signed by Bush, could it?
And you still didn’t answer my question.
Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle
@Lawnguylander: Why do people at TGOS hate OFA? I don’t know if they hate OFA, but they don’t trust it. Why? See the Bill Halter/Blanche Lincoln duel. What disgusts people is that Blanche Lincoln doesn’t support the Democratic agenda. She’ll only support it when bought off. And yet Obama works to get her re-elected. People hate the incumbency protection racket. Any why else might they dislike it? Maybe because the President isn’t doing enough to get us out of this hole we are in. That’s why.
Joel
@Phil: I feel bad for you, hombre.
Josie
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle: Yes, Al can be rather abrupt, especially when criticized, but I like that he does his homework and reasons through his subject matter pretty carefully. I also like the “no bullshit” factor in his reporting. I feel that he is always honest, even when I don’t like what he says, and that he is unbiased in his writing about politicians, including Obama. I don’t think that I am fawning over him, just appreciating a good, honest reporter. But I could be biased myself – my kids accuse me of being a soshulist or an anarchist, depending on the subject matter.
Edit – my earlier comment is in moderation, so will post twice. Ignore it when it eventually surfaces.
Nick
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle:
Which, of course, is why she voted for almost everything that came to a vote this year. She opposed the public option and EFCA (in the most anti-union state in the country). Feingold has opposed the Democrats more.
The endless pain of the professional left…I didn’t get everything I wanted, he’s not shitting rainbows, it shouldn’t be this hard, it should be easy because I have big dreams that it is, so fuck you all.
FlipYrWhig
@Lawnguylander:
I’m too antisocial to be much of an organizer or organizee, but, yes, I find it spectacularly irritating that by some kind of alchemy it is now conventional wisdom that blogs = liberals = Democratic base, so that the kind of thing that people care quite a lot about on blogs MUST BE the kind of thing driving down enthusiasm among Democrats more broadly. I don’t think “the base” is “liberals.” I don’t think “the base” particularly cares about which inner-circle economic advisor is ascendant or what disparaging remark Gibbs or Emanuel made about liberal activist/gadflies or assassination orders issued for terror suspects. I think it’s practically narcissistic to feel like the kinds of things that would satisfy Big Blog are the kinds of things that would increase turnout among Democratic voters.
(In fact, I wonder what the geographic and demographic distribution is for the “enthusiasm gap.” I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if the biggest drop-off in Democratic ardor was coming from the _least_ liberal constituencies… in which case pushing for more vocal, adversarial liberalism might be even more counterproductive. I like to see liberalism because I’m a liberal. But not all Democrats are liberals, and you need to keep the non-liberals in the fold to win elections.)
Mnemosyne
@Bender:
Good thing we haven’t had any bank collapses or massive layoffs since 2007 or else you’d look like even more of an idiot than we already know you are. Or is your argument that Lehmann Bros. collapsed and Bear Stearns almost did because Henry Paulson was taking his marching orders from Nancy Pelosi and not, you know, the president who hired him?
Nick
@FlipYrWhig:
Tom Jensen at PPP has been screaming about this for a year now…the problem isn’t the left, it’s the center of the Democratic Party. They’re disappearing or in some cases defecting to Republicans.
That’s why I’m willing to bet the Blue Dogs in McCain districts (Altmire, Boucher, Bright, Edwards, Minnick, Matheson) will survive this year, while the ones who take tough votes in those districts or stood up for Democratic values (Markey, Periello, Grayson, Shea-Porter, Kilroy, Boccieri, Mitchell, Pomeroy, Carney etc) will lose.
They’ll turn out the base, which won’t be nearly enough because they need the voters who voted for them and McCain. These are not progressives. These are people who wrongly think spending and taxes are causing economic problems and no amount of convincing will change their minds.
morzer
@roshan:
No, you look paranoid and an idiot. Like it or not, Gore lost. That’s why the campaign was a “failed” one. This isn’t rocket-science, kid.
FlipYrWhig
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle:
It could also be the case that if Obama _didn’t_ work to get her re-elected, she wouldn’t even support the Democratic agenda through attempts to buy her off. I.e., “I know you don’t like what we’re doing, but back it and we’ll do what we can to help you out.” She has powerful incentives to vote _against_ the Democratic agenda, because her state is not too fond of Obama or liberals. How do you keep her from doing what’s in her rational self-interest? How about promising to help her get re-elected?
I liked the Halter campaign, but it seems like it would have been in Halter’s own interests _not_ to have Obama help him out, because that way he could run against the unpopular-in AR-Obama too. Plus if the WH and party threw themselves behind Halter and Lincoln still won, what incentive would Lincoln have to be remotely cooperative instead of a full-scale pain in the ass? (And that’s without even mentioning that Halter might be like Sestak, appealing in concept but somehow less so in actual reality.)
Frank
@Phil:
So let me get this straight; when Republican George W bush appointed someone without an ounce of relevant experience/edcuation to head FEMA it was OK, but it is not OK when a Democrat does it (It is VP Biden by way).
Frank
@Phil:
Do you really think any rational person will take a posting that quotes Rasmussen seriously? Their polls are pretty much always outliers in GOP favor until about two weeks before the election. Why do you think they always are invited to the official Republican propaganda outlet FoxNews to spew their bias?
FlipYrWhig
@Nick:
Hmm, interesting. Because the preferred narrative on the blogs is that the Congresspeople who stand to lose the most this year are the conservative/Blue Dog group. But I think your explanation/projection makes sense.
I can totally picture someone who had voted D locally in ’06 and ’08 saying, “I don’t know what I thought I was voting for, but for damn sure it wasn’t this big-spending liberal agenda.” And I have to think that people like that outweigh those who would say “I don’t know what I thought I was voting for, but for damn sure it wasn’t this milquetoast corporatist agenda,” even though the blogs are jam-packed with the latter.
Frank
@Phil:
Do you really want to include the now disgraced Chris Christie? Because of him his stated lost at least $400 Million in fed aid. Hell, I bet he would lose pretty badly if there was a re-election today.
BTW – the unemployment rate in NJ is 9.7% vs only 9.6% for the US as a whole. If you are incorrect about this fact, why should we trust anything else you are saying?
Bob Loblaw
@General Stuck:
That’s basically only half-true. Rubio would destroy Meek one on one, as would most GOPers in the state at this point. Rubio vs. Sink in a hypothetical governor race? It’s always about candidates, isn’t it? It’s the Crist factor that’s turned that senate race into a genuine toss-up between R and I (ideally caucusing D come Jan). It’s not like Rubio has been hemorrhaging numbers to Crist. And Buck has been trending UP and now ahead of Bennet in early polling, contra to your alleged trend. There isn’t one easy pat narrative that covers each and every one of the candidates. There never is.
If you want to turn to those, you’re pretty much doing the exact same thing Phil is. And people should ignore you all the same.
roshan
Thanks, eemom, for that oldie link. The geezers did get something right.
roshan
@morzer: You should comeback sometime tonight and read my other reply to Phil. It’s currently hanging at #60 but not yet out of moderation so you won’t see it. But yeah, come back later and read it. I now, will carry on being an “idiot and wallow in my “paranoia”.
Nick
@FlipYrWhig:
well polls seem to be pointing in that direction; Bright, Minnick, Shuler, Boucher, Teague all seem to be doing quite well, which Periello is getting slaughtered.
DougJ
I love Wonkette.
Frank
href=”#comment-2011271″>Phil:
George W Bush had executive experience…Enough said!
Mnemosyne
@Phil:
So instead we were supposed to elect the other guy with no executive experience whatsoever, John McCain?
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@Linda Featheringill: Thanks for the link. I also liked:
ETA: stupid blockquote thingy.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@burnspbesq: Obama=teh Left. Summers was imposed on him by Voldemort.
jwb
@Nick: But what are they going to find when they defect? More than likely they are defecting because they don’t like the status quo more than that they find anything particularly appealing about the goopers. So in two years they’ll be wandering again. Personally, I just don’t really know what you do about such people, who tend to be very disaffected souls not really amenable to persuasion by rational argument or even emotional appeals that come off in any respects as calculated. (My brother is one of these disaffected souls, so I always take him as a bellwether.)
Lawnguylander
@Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle:
Yes, that group over at Dkos hates OFA. And what are you claiming that OFA did to help Blanche Lincoln win her primary? Or are you even claiming that they did anything? I can’t tell from your comment and maybe that blurriness was intentional. Regardless though it’s a volunteer organization so people can show up to phone bank, etc. for candidates and issues they support. Nobody is going to drag anyone out of bed to phone bank for a candidate they don’t support. But I’ve caught your 100% bullshit, 100% negative act at various blogs and if your real world persona is anything like your internet persona I discourage you from getting involved in any organization that tries to have a positive influence on politics. Go ahead and be offended by Al Giordano’s tone. Who gives a fuck? He’s right that people like you are a huge drag but your kind doesn’t show up anyway so no worries.
schrodinger's cat
@Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people): I think that story really happened and Sanjay was the mathematician Ramanujan.
Mike in NC
Really? How about some evidence? Am not aware of any.
The biggest thing McDonnell seems to have done to date was to make a complete ass of himself by declaring that perennial GOP favorite: Confederate History Month.
That and letting loose his wingnut attorney general to push favorite right-wing causes like gay-bashing and whining about phony “states rights” issues.
Pity any state that gets morons like those two as governor.
General Stuck
@Bob Loblaw: Guess I should be surprised a firebagger like you would go to such effort and mental gymnastics to try and equate me Phil.. But that’s why you are a firebagger, isn’t it?
It is comical your perspective on Crist as an I, and that that fact somehow releases Rubio from being in trouble as the tea tard candidate. That kind of thinking actually makes you seem more like Phil, as he likely wouldn’t even have gone that far.
And yes, there is easily a fairly pat narrative in NV, CO, KY, and elsewhere, that reads these were seats in Red to purple states that were sure wins for the repubs currently very red, before the crazy tea tards won the gop primaries in those states.
Jeesh, Lobslaw, you can do better than this, you sound more like a ratfucker taking this tact to tackle an Obot.
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
@schrodinger’s cat: Just discovered Ramanujan’s wikipedia page. Impressive.
Bob Loblaw
@General Stuck:
Except for the reality that Buck is polling better than Norton, and continues to trend upwards against Bennet since the primary. But that’s like numbers and stuff, instead of things you’re gut is telling you to feel.
And for the record, I don’t have any association with Firedoglake. Or dkos. And you’re a colossal dumbass.
General Stuck
@Bob Loblaw: Being a firebagger is a state of mind dude, not belonging to a particular blog or group.
The TPM tracker seems to me to have them still pretty close and that way for some time, if trending you mean all over the place on particular polls with Buck a few points ahead overall. This is CO, lots of western style tea baggers there./ And it is comical, once again, and telling, in a thread where we are attacking a wingnut troll, you see fit to side with that troll over now down to one single instance of a very close technicality, that even that wingnut troll didn’t take issue with.
But go ahead keep making a fool of yourself, maybe one of your fellow firebagging twits like corner stone will ride up with the posse to cover your stupid ass.
Bob Loblaw
@General Stuck:
This is why you’re a silly tribalist fool that should be paid attention to by noone.
I don’t much care what the Republican guy has to say on the topic. He’s full of shit, and I don’t really care. I don’t think I’m on some cosmic crusade to win partisan bitchfights on the interwebz.
You posted incorrect information and broad generalities you couldn’t back up. Colorado primary voters didn’t vote in the weaker general election candidate, as of current polling. Buck is outperforming Norton against Bennet. He is also not losing ground, despite his ridiculous and dangerous policy stances.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-co-sen/Bennet-Buck
We’re done here.
General Stuck
@Bob Loblaw:
Only if you stop firebagging at least until after the election, otherwise, I would advise shutting up with the bullshit if you want to be left alone. and that goes for your fellow ratfuckers hoping for a gooper victory to say I told you so.
morzer
@roshan:
I’ve seen your reply, and it’s a pathetic display of attention-seeking based on nothing of substance. I shall now ignore you completely.
MNPundit
Ah Al, no one has been more of a blind Obama backer than he is, and his self-important moral superiority streams from him like a hurricane of shit.