I’ve been in both states recently, and talk to relatives there all the time. The environment there is no more hostile to Democrats than it’s ever been — in fact, it’s probably better than usual. North Dakota is in the midst of an energy boom and experiencing the lowest unemployment rate in the nation, with South Dakota having the second lowest. Pomeroy and Herseth have twice the cash on hand as their opponents. Both are facing little-known state legislators, and both won their last couple of races by 60/40 margins.
Off-year elections in red states are always tough for Democratic House members, but I’ll be very surprised if Pomeroy or Herseth has real trouble dispatching their opponents. Early polls of voters in R+9 and R+10 states is an easy way to drive a “wave” narrative, and Rasmussen got what he wanted when he polled South Dakota and North Dakota.