Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

Hot air and ill-informed banter

White supremacy is terrorism.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Second rate reporter says what?

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Infrastructure week. at last.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Today’s GOP: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Impressively dumb. Congratulations.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

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Reader Interactions

141Comments

  1. 1.

    Linda Featheringill

    You know those days when you have to fight tooth and nail for every little centimeter of progress you make? I had one of those today.

    I would like a stiff drink. Unfortunately, I take too many meds to risk mixing everything with alcohol.

    But I tell you, this diet cola is not doing the job.

  4. 4.

    soonergrunt

    I am home. I feel alternately like hell and really, really good.
    Thanks to all for the good thoughts, prayers, positive energy and so on. The tumor, whatever the hell it was, is BENIGN!
    I was gratified to see that the President had a press conference where, it seemed to me, that he kicked ass.

  7. 7.

    Violet

    @soonergrunt:
    YAY! Fantastic news! So glad to hear it. Celebrate with a little hit of whatever they’re giving you there. Now you can really rest and concentrate on getting better.

  11. 11.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @soonergrunt: Excellent. Now work on stopping the feeling like hell part. You will feel a lot better and thank me for it later.

    To the Management: I would be quite pleased if whatever is wrong with this blog would get fixed. Thank you.

  12. 12.

    _zack_

    My “man-pants” are on the ground, and I can’t get them up.

    It’s been a rough week in right-wing crazy.

  13. 13.

    TuiMel

    I have not been able to keep up with posts today. Has the trash bandit been busted (my money was on Rosie)?

  14. 14.

    eric

    Sooner, now if only Obama had gotten ur tumor sooner I would reason to vote for the dems. Enjoy ur new peace

    Now I have a date with a lovely Suhr that has been feeling neglected

  16. 16.

    beltane

    The NRA just endorsed that anti-masturbation wingnut lady in Delaware who is running against Mike Castle. I think I’ll have to go to the co-op and buy some bulk popcorn.

  17. 17.

    soonergrunt

    On another note, the U.S Army has announced that SSG Salvatore Giunta will be the first living Medal of Honor Awardee for the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts.
    From the White House website:

    Then-Specialist Salvatore A. Giunta distinguished himself by acts of gallantry at the risk of his life above and beyond the call of duty while serving as a rifle team leader with Company B, 2d Battalion (Airborne), 503d Infantry Regiment during combat operations against an armed enemy in the Korengal Valley, Afghanistan on October 25, 2007.
    When an insurgent force ambush split Specialist Giunta’s squad into two groups, he exposed himself to enemy fire to pull a comrade back to cover. Later, while engaging the enemy and attempting to link up with the rest of his squad, Specialist Giunta noticed two insurgents carrying away a fellow soldier. He immediately engaged the enemy, killing one and wounding the other, and provided medical aid to his wounded comrade while the rest of his squad caught up and provided security. His courage and leadership while under extreme enemy fire were integral to his platoon’s ability defeat an enemy ambush and recover a fellow American paratrooper from enemy hands.

    SSG Giunta will be Presented the Medal of Honor by President Obama in a ceremony to be announced at a later date. He is currently stationed in Vicenza, Italy with the 2nd Battalion, 503rd PIR, 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team.

  18. 18.

    Yutsano

    @soonergrunt: Thanks for this news. I needed some positive today. You keep getting better and heal on up soldier.

    So I no haz TV now and after having been off for two days…I’m not missing it all that much. And I’m 95% moved, except for a couple of wall decorations, my Kitchen-Aid, and my cat.

    @beltane: :: in the style of a border collie hyped up on sugar ::

    OHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASEOHPLEASE!!

  19. 19.

    Linda Featheringill

    @soonergrunt:

    Hey Sooner! Good for you!

    So glad the tumor was benign. Of course, some benign tumors can cause problems because of their location and size as they interfere with normal functions. This seems to be the case with you. But they took it out.

    So the only thing you have to do for a while is as little as possible.

    Glad to have you back.

    [ happy face: :-) ]

  23. 23.

    soonergrunt

    And my post at #17 is in the moderation filter due to an Army rank as referenced containing the word for a certain hard-on drug. Also, it won’t format correctly.
    Anyway, the gist is that the President is going to award a Medal of Honor to the first living recipient of the award since the Viet Nam conflict to SSG Salvatore A. Giunta, for actions undertaken about three years ago in the Korengal valley, Afghanistan as an E-4 Special ist.
    FYWP!

  27. 27.

    Kewalo

    I can’t get here from firefox/moxilla. I got here through AOL but otherwise I can’t get in. Anyone have a clue about that?

  28. 28.

    tim serbo

    @soonergrunt: finally, some unadulterated good news. i join the others in saluting you with a glass or bowl or glass bowl of whatever-gets-you-through-the-night. don’t delay on the feeling better part.

    in other news, TBogg has been killin’ it lately.

  29. 29.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Oh, soonergrunt, that news makes me VERY happy! Well done. There are a great many of us who have been following your progress with great concern and affection. I hope at some point you’ll have a leisurely stroll through the archives and read what everyone had to say to you and about you.

    P.S. I still think you were riotously funny the first night when you were strung out on meds. But it was wonderful to hear from you.

  31. 31.

    Martin

    @jeffreyw: Usually you show us the food porn plated. What kind of sauce you planning to use on those? I’d grill, personally, especially when they’re fresh.

  32. 32.

    jl

    Congratulations to soonergrunt. Glad to hear that things went well.

    Now, as for this Cole:
    Who is the trash thief, and did you need to examine pep poop to find out? If Cole does not know and did not, why?

    Does Cole really think he can distract me from this all important crisis by dangling open threads? Like I am some sort of easily bedazzled cat who will swipe my paw at any bauble dangled my way?

    Nay, nay.

    PS: If the requested information has been already posted, yes, I do know that I am a loser and a big bag o’ fail.

  33. 33.

    Sean

    uhh, i haven’t been able to visit here for a few days now. I can’t load it in firefox or ie. I was wondering wtf could be the problem so I deleted balloon-juice cookies but no help.

    I finally made it by using the proxy service at goproxing.com, just thought I’d bring this to your attention.

  37. 37.

    Yutsano

    @Tattoosydney: As long as it wasn’t that other song. You know the one I’m talking about.

    Hi hon. Enjoying life with the official female PM?

    @Tattoosydney: The only common factor is my forgetfulness. Except for the cat. He decided to pull a disappearing act. No word if he’s shown back up yet although if he gets hungry enough he’ll resurface.

  41. 41.

    Tattoosydney

    @Yutsano:

    As long as it wasn’t that other song. You know the one I’m talking about.

    No idea.

    Hi hon. Enjoying life with the official female PM?

    It’s quite like life before the election, except with the knowledge that from July next year radical greenist leftie commo pinko lesbo types will generally be able to decide whether legislation gets passed or not, which is nice.

    Was the move traumatic?

  45. 45.

    jeffreyw

    @Sean: I was having the same problem till I reset my satellite modem, then it was OK. Talking to stuckinred today, he is locked out too. Someone said to flush your dns to fix it, didn’t help stuckinred.

  46. 46.

    Yellowdog

    What is it with the anti-Mikulski ads all of a sudden, hear and on the GOS site? Babs is so safe that any review of Senate possible flips doesn’t even include the possibility that our venerable senior senator from Maryland may lose.

    Amazingly, she does have five or six primary challengers but I don’t even recognize the name of a single one of them. And I don’t even know who is running on the Republican side.

    True, this is probably her last race but we have a pretty good bench to run for the seat in six years. So my only comment is, basically, WTF?

  47. 47.

    Yutsano

    @Tattoosydney: Other than threatening to bust my bank accounts and possibly causing me scalp trauma? Not so much. I even have the vast majority of the stuff put away, so I think I’m doing all right on that score. Haven’t run the dishwasher yet to make room for the second round of stuff, so there’s that as well. A few of my neighbors are rather cute though so there’s that factor as well. I have a round of groceries in the fridge and still need to buy more but lassitude has taken over and I’m typing on the brand new laptop in my bedroom. Curiously enough I’m dressed for this task.

  50. 50.

    Comrade Mary

    IF YOU CAN’T GET HERE BY YOUR USUAL BROWSER:

    1) It might be local. Restart your modem (and router next, if you have one) to flush the old associations between balloon-juice.com and its old IP address.

    2) If that doesn’t work, contact your ISP. One or more of its name servers may be holding on to the old IP address for this site. Make the tech support person check with tracert to see if they can get to here from all of the name servers.

  51. 51.

    Jay in Oregon

    Here’s another entry for the “PayPal is the worst company in the world” contest:

    http://games.slashdot.org/story/10/09/10/1713217/PayPal-Withholding-Indie-Game-Devs-euro600000-Account

    PayPal limited a game developer’s PayPal account, with a balance over 600,000 euro, for no reason and is telling him they won’t be able to conclude the investigation for at least two weeks.

    The actual post from the developer is here, but the server has been slashdotted: http://notch.tumblr.com/post/1096322756/working-on-a-friday-update-crying-over-paypal

  54. 54.

    jwb

    I see Nate Silver’s model is giving the Goopers 2 in 3 chance on taking the House. I really don’t see it happening, and I can hardly wait for his post-mortem when he has to explain his model fail.

    Anyone else think Nate has become extremely boring ever since he moved over to the Times?

  55. 55.

    rootless_e

    I didn’t want this classic of poutrage to fall into the void without some applause

    By now, nominating Elizabeth Warren will get little more than a couple of day’s worth of cheer from the left – little long term goodwill.
    about 5 hours ago via web
    Retweeted by 1 person
    Reply Retweet

    peterdaou
    Peter Daou

    http://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/24128494549

  56. 56.

    Keith G

    Why is Nick Gillespie on the News Hour as part of a panel discussing America after 9/11?

    Oh, and he just criticized Obama for not being a clear leader on the ground zero mosque issue.

    Yeah, smart guy.

  61. 61.

    slag

    @rootless_e: Can I just say–as someone who is frequently criticized for having unreasonable expectations for pretty much everything–WTF?

    Relatedly, I pretty much agree with Hellekson’s argument here:

    I love quality data as much as the next person, but this is a perfect example of treating government as a vending machine, and it’s poisonous. In 19 months, citizens have access to more data than they ever had before. In some agencies, it takes an average of 43 months to get a new project off the ground. The fact that the US government is even attempting this is amazing. …
    __
    Sunlight has, I think, dangerously conflated transparency for reform. You get transparency first, and that compels reform. That’s the whole point. You don’t ask for perfection right out of the gate, it’s unreasonable.

    It’s an odd sensation–suddenly feeling like my standards are mildly realistic. Who am I, if not the tightest-assed perfectionist in the room? Haunting existential questions abound.

  63. 63.

    Nick

    @slag: This sorta reminds me of the reaction on OpenLeft when someone suggested we praise Obama for standing strong on letting Bush tax cuts for the rich expire.

    the response was “No, he’s supposed to do this” or ‘He’s going to cave anyway”(from the same people who argued in the past that it would be ok for him to cave, as long as he fights first)

    You don’t please “the base” because “the base” will NEVER be pleased.

  65. 65.

    Keith G

    @soonergrunt: I bet home is looking pretty darned good right about now.

    I am so happy for your upbeat outcome. Looking forward to future discussions with you.

  67. 67.

    Little Boots

    babysteps is what we get for now. that’s really it. the republicans suck so relentlessly that it’s ridiculous to even contemplate a republican house or senate. What would the fuckwits do, besides fuck up? the democrats do not suck nearly so much. they disappoint, they irritate, they enrage even sometimes, but we still have to vote for them. they are the only party that is even remotely capable of governing, even remotely capable of giving a shit about the depression happening all around us. true believers, true progressives, i honestly don’t have a good answer for your disappointments. you are right to be disappointed, but you still have to vote Democrat in November. Any other vote, or nonvote is just fucked up. sorry.

  68. 68.

    quaint irene

    PayPal limited a game developer’s PayPal account, with a balance over 600,000 euro,

    Not arguing that PayPal sucks and answers only to whatever twisted version of God they possess. But why in hell would anyone keep more than a balance of 5 bucks in their account, just for this very reason?

  69. 69.

    MikeJ

    @Nick: And the base themselves will say the reason they never give any credit for anything good you do is to keep pushing you in the right direction. And then they don’t understand why nobody wants to do what they want when, no matter what you do, you’ll never get any credit form them. There’s never any reason to do anything the least bit politically risky when all you’ll get is bitched at.

  70. 70.

    Cacti

    My Cardinals death watch continues. 5 games back in the division, 5.5 back in the Wild Card.

    Still holding on to hope that Tony “Restoring Honor while DUI” La Russa hangs it up after this season.

  71. 71.

    Tattoosydney

    @Yutsano:

    I even have the vast majority of the stuff put away, so I think I’m doing all right on that score.

    That’s quite impressive.

    A few of my neighbors are rather cute though so there’s that factor as well.

    Woo!

    Curiously enough I’m dressed for this task.

    How curiously do you have to be dressed to talk on the internet? Wait, don’t answer that.

    I like this song very much – the single version of the Robyn song I linked above.

    I’m trying to work out what I want to cook this weekend – perhaps a nice lemon sponge, or maybe an apple cake.

  73. 73.

    danimal

    Open question: At what point do we rename High Broderism into High Gergenism?

    David Gergen makes my skin crawl.

  76. 76.

    Cacti

    @jwb:

    Nate seems to have caught horse race fever.

    In the opening paragraphs he breathlessly talks about how the GOP has a 1 in 3 chance of duplicating their gains in 1994, and 1 in 4 chance of exceeding them.

    Wow! That means there’s only a 66.6% and 75% chance that they won’t.

  77. 77.

    Yutsano

    @Tattoosydney: A nice apple cake with cinnamon, nutmeg, and allspice. Plus it would be Pedro friendly so you could share some!

    I really should get off my ass and go to the store again, but I’m settling into a nice calm Zen-like state that I don’t feel like disturbing just yet.

  78. 78.

    Little Boots

    not sure why, but david gergen just doesn’t bother me that much. he is what he is, a moderate republican operative. just doesn’t bug me like all the whores constantly paraded out every sunday morning to show that democrats, the best democracts, are all center right, too. cokie roberts drives me up a wall, but david gergen, no, not so much.

  79. 79.

    Violet

    @jwb:

    Anyone else think Nate has become extremely boring ever since he moved over to the Times?

    Me. The blog seems to have lost its sparkle or something. Maybe the upcoming election season will make it more interesting, but so far I’m not impressed at all.

  80. 80.

    MikeJ

    @Cacti: Horse race fever? If you’re uninterested in horse race analysis, perhaps a website that deals with nothing else besides polling isn’t the best place to go.

  82. 82.

    Bob Loblaw

    @jwb:

    Um, no. I notice people who get snitty when non-partisan metrics don’t align with their partisan prejudices are generally lacking self-awareness, however.

    It isn’t 2008 anymore. Nate hasn’t changed. The data sample has.

  83. 83.

    Yutsano

    @Violet: Nate fell for exactly what everyone feared he would when he went to the NYT: he now has a corporate paymaster. This also means he has an editor and a boss who tells him how to frame his stories and articles. In other words, he is no longer the independent voice that attracted so many to his site in the first place.

  85. 85.

    Little Boots

    I just don’t feel like yelling at the canary in the coalmine. the whole democratic party is in trouble, seriously in trouble, this november. this is a remarkably stupid, short sighted country with the attention span of a 5-year-old. let’s not ignore that. let’s do something about it.

  86. 86.

    rootless_e

    @Nick: getting banned from open left was a proud moment for me.
    I think I got banned twice.

    I committed the unpardonable sin of noting that it didn’t look good for American white people to be endlessly insisting that a black man of evident smarts, toughness, and education was a naive, dumb, easily manipulated, idiot lead around by some Jewish guy – even if those white people were, in their own estimation, enlightened.

  87. 87.

    JAHILL10

    @Bob Loblaw: Another thing has changed since 2008, Nate is working for the NYT now. And if you think that polling data can’t be skewed then I have some Death Valley real estate I’d like you to look at.

  89. 89.

    rootless_e

    @Allison W.: I don’t think that her reputation survives being nominated. When she endorsed FinReg, she was dismissed as a hack without much hesitation.

  90. 90.

    Cacti

    @MikeJ:

    Nate fell for exactly what everyone feared he would when he went to the NYT: he now has a corporate paymaster. This also means he has an editor and a boss who tells him how to frame his stories and articles. In other words, he is no longer the independent voice that attracted so many to his site in the first place.

    What Yutsano said.

  91. 91.

    danimal

    @Little Boots: I haven’t listened to a word Cokie Roberts has said in about a decade. She’s worse than useless as an analyst and actually makes you stupider by listening to her. Just Say No to Cokie.

  93. 93.

    Allison W.

    @rootless_e:

    she was dismissed as a hack without much hesitation.

    really? was there a declaration of this? I saw a few people at Dkos say this in the comments, but I just thought they were joking or being assholes. I didn’t think it was widespread.

  94. 94.

    Cacti

    @rootless_e:

    I committed the unpardonable sin of noting that it didn’t look good for American white people to be endlessly insisting that a black man of evident smarts, toughness, and education was a naive, dumb, easily manipulated, idiot lead around by some Jewish guy – even if those white people were, in their own estimation, enlightened.

    A quick trip around the afrosphere will show that black Democrats aren’t exactly unaware of the paternalistic, condescending tone “the (white) base” likes to take with the first black POTUS.

  97. 97.

    Bruce (formerly Steve S.)

    @jwb:

    His analytic pieces are the same as they ever were except written in NYT style. I didn’t care much for his opinion-ish pieces anyway, so no loss there as far as I’m concerned.

  99. 99.

    Violet

    @Yutsano:

    Nate fell for exactly what everyone feared he would when he went to the NYT: he now has a corporate paymaster. This also means he has an editor and a boss who tells him how to frame his stories and articles. In other words, he is no longer the independent voice that attracted so many to his site in the first place.

    Yeah, I hate to admit that’s what has happened, but I think it has. I’m still willing to give it a bit of time. Settling into a new place is always a challenge. But so far I’m not overly impressed.

    It could also be that in 2008 Nate’s analysis was new and exciting. Now it’s part of the discussion. There’s nothing new about it. It’s hard to keep that sort of thing exciting and interesting. But I do think there has been a change in tone or something since the move.

  100. 100.

    Tattoosydney

    @Yutsano:

    I made apple shortcake last week so I am leaning towards an orange madeira cake. Chicken satays with crispy prawn chilli paste for dinner.

  102. 102.

    Yutsano

    @Tattoosydney: I actually ate at a Japanese place for lunch, fantastic stuff and not too horribly expensive either. Dinner may end up being Jewish food (latkes) because I have all the ingredients in the house. And Yukon golds make the best ones IMHO.

  103. 103.

    jwb

    @Bob Loblaw: Not talking about his data, polls, and models, I’m talking about his posts. I’m also not talking about 2008, I’m talking about before he moved, which was only a couple of weeks ago, when his data and predictions were more or less the same as they are now (though he didn’t yet have his House model in place). Reading comprehension, my boy, reading comprehension.

  105. 105.

    salacious crumb

    btw am i dont see any postings about this but did anyone read Roger Cohen of the NYTimes yesterday? he is usually one of the saners columnists who came out against attacking Iran. But now he too thinks building the park51 mosque is a bad idea. anyone read this?

  108. 108.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Yutsano:

    Oh, so he’s part of the corporate conspiracy now, too, huh? That was fast. Very efficient. Only took a week, in fact.

    How about instead of baselessly accusing Silver of lacking in integrity, we take a moment to look inwards here. Maybe the horse race doesn’t seem as much fun this time around because your horse isn’t favored any more?

  109. 109.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Is there some new rule that there must be one firebagger per thread now? Is it part of the virus?

  110. 110.

    Violet

    @jeffreyw:
    Oh my gosh, that is the CUTEST thing EVAH! What a sweetie. Is she doing okay?

    @Bob Loblaw:
    I don’t think any of us who seem to have noticed a change in Nate’s posts are accusing him of lacking integrity. We’ve just noticed that something seems to have changed since he’s move to the NYT. Why that has happened is speculation, although having a boss, working for a large corporation, having a style guide, etc. are all things that have changed since his move and therefore could be reasons.

  111. 111.

    Yutsano

    @Bob Loblaw: Adorable. You think that Nate taking on a new master when he had none before has zero effect on how he frames issues now. News flash numbnuts: HE HAS TO GET THESE PAST AN EDITOR WHO ALSO HAS A BOSS TELLING HIM WHAT HE SHOULD BE PRINTING. You go ahead and defy your boss over and over and see how well you survive at your job. Go ahead. I’m waiting.

    Oh and I do have a dog in this hunt: I work for the federal government, and a shutdown means I don’t get a fucking paycheck. I may be a big saver, but even that is gonna sting.

    @Violet: Two words about puppeh in cast: ME. WANT!!

    Can’t haz, but still, ME. WANT!!

  112. 112.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Violet:

    You’re right, except for the people accusing him of falsifying his results and inappropriately reinforcing a narrative you find personally distasteful for money, no one in this thread has impugned his integrity or credibility.

    Certainly not Yutsano in post #110…

  113. 113.

    jeffreyw

    @Violet: As far as I know the pup is doing fine. Not sure of the back story, Mrs J says it is an “abuse case” and that the shelter director is refusing to return the pup to the owner. Mrs J adds that this is all hearsay and abuse is not proven.

  116. 116.

    Bruce (formerly Steve S.)

    @jwb:

    He seems to me to be from the Yglesias/Klein wing of the left so going all NYT on us didn’t strike me as that big of a sellout. Politically he’s liberal but his true deity is numbers, so the opportunity to venerate them in front of a bigger audience must have been irresistible.

  117. 117.

    jwb

    @Bob Loblaw: As for the data, I just don’t believe his model is correct. That’s an empirical claim and we’ll be able to test it come November. Personally, I believe that Nate’s very sincere in the construction of his models, but that doesn’t mean they are correct or, more to the point, that they can be any better than the data he has available. As for his posts, I just haven’t found what he’s written since moving to the Times very engaging.

  118. 118.

    lawnorder

    OMG, I’m laughing so much i have tears in my eyes. Brad DeLong eviscerates McArdle and she comes back for more!

    Did Megan McArdle Really Graduate from a Business School?

    She writes:

    On Comparing Tax Cuts to Social Security: the only reason the [CBPP’s two] numbers [valuing the size of the upper-income tax cuts and the Social Security deficit] looked even remotely the same size was that they were using a present value…

    Did this person really graduate from a business school?

    Either she needs her tuition back because they did not teach her what present value is for, or the business school needs to revoke her degree to get its reputation back because its graduates do not know what present value is for, or both.

    To make a long story short:

    Megan: The liberals are bringing all cash figures to the present (implying it is an unheard of dishonest way of valuing SS budget versus Bush Tax cuts)
    Brad: Jane you ig… That is called “present value” – NPV -and is taught in all business schools
    Megan: I know what NPV is but it is an inappropriate and inaccurate measure
    Brad commenter:NPV is used by all companies in America as part of their regular accounting and finance work
    Megan: Did I say NPV is bad ? Not so I said it is bad when used to calculate values “so far in the future” like in 75 years
    Brad commenter: Brad how far in the future does NPV loses it’s usefulness ?
    Brad: When future inflows tends to zero, possibly in infinity…
    Brad commenter: Pension funds and may other companies use NPV on very long time frames
    Megan: Pension funds are dumb hence they use dumb practices
    Brad commenter: Several companies use NPV to calculate the value of “perpetuities” which are “infinite” cash flows (or cash flows for such a long time it is immaterial to the calculations at hand. Would Megan propose they stop using it ?
    Megan: Yes I know this is how you calculate value of perpetuities. My point isn’t the long time span. My point is (looks around for straw to grasp) NPV is bad to use when talking about Government finances. Besides, who said I hate NPV ? I love NPV! I never said it is an unknown measure or that it is inappropriate to use in finance…
    Brad commenter: TBD
    Megan (in a future post) : I come from a family of elite intellectuals and I have an mba…..

  119. 119.

    Violet

    @Bob Loblaw:
    Who’s accusing him of “falsifying his results” or “inappropriately reinforcing a narrative you find personally distasteful for money”? What are you talking about?

    Seems like everyone is talking about style and the issue of him having a boss and how that might shape the content his column. That’s hardly the same thing as falsifying results or reinforcing some narrative for a paycheck.

    The guy has a boss now. Bosses have expectations and corporations have rules. It would be naive to think that those things wouldn’t have some sort of effect on what he does.

  121. 121.

    jwb

    @Bruce (formerly Steve S.): No, for me, it’s not a question of selling out—I don’t find that his politics have much changed when he chooses to express a particular political point of view. It’s more a question of tone and the topics he’s chosen to engage. He’s now more or less playing the role of “expert,” and that has swallowed a certain quirkiness that kept me reading him at his old site.

  123. 123.

    Roger Moore

    @quaint irene:

    But why in hell would anyone keep more than a balance of 5 bucks in their account, just for this very reason?

    My impression is that a bunch of that money piled up after PayPal restricted the account, so there was nothing he could do about it. Besides, I’m willing to bet that taking money out of an account too fast is something that PayPal will call suspicious and justification for restricting the account. They want to make sure that there’s plenty of money in the account to deal with any claims against the account holder, and keeping a $5 balance when there are hundreds of thousands of dollars moving through the account isn’t going to cut it.

    PayPal’s biggest fear is that a scammer will set up an account, rip off a ton of money, and disappear with it fast enough to leave PayPal holding the bag when the victims demand refunds. Their solution is to restrict accounts that look suspiciously like fraud might be taking place. The problem is that they don’t have any effective competition, so they don’t suffer (and may actually benefit) when their process generates tons of false positives.

  124. 124.

    Bob Loblaw

    @jwb:

    As for the data, I just don’t believe his model is correct. That’s an empirical claim and we’ll be able to test it come November.

    That’s actually the opposite of an empirical claim. It’s a claim of faith. You haven’t presented any empirical underpinnings or data anywhere in this thread.

  125. 125.

    rootless_e

    @Allison W.: it was widespread.

    Much of it was “She’s got to say that, she’s hoping for the job”. Then one might ask, “Does she have no integrity?” and the answer was hemming and hawing and “in this case”.

  126. 126.

    Mnemosyne

    @Bob Loblaw:

    That’s actually the opposite of an empirical claim. It’s a claim of faith. You haven’t presented any empirical underpinnings or data anywhere in this thread.

    No, it’s a hypothesis, because there is evidence that jwb can’t access right now. It would be a claim of faith if in November Nate’s predictions turn out to be correct and jwb continued claiming that Nate’s numbers were wrong.

    You don’t seem to realize that Nate’s numbers are just as fallible as anything else created by human calculations. This is the guy who thought that Mickey Rourke was a lock to get the Oscar for “The Wrestler,” but who admitted afterward that what was missing from his numbers was that Academy voters thought that Rourke was an asshole so they didn’t vote for him.

    Nate’s a smart guy, but he’s not perfect and his numbers do not, in fact, always turn out exactly the way he claims. To insist otherwise is the actual claim of faith here — you’re saying you have so much faith in Nate’s numbers that he can’t possibly be wrong and so therefore jwb must automatically be wrong if he thinks the numbers don’t look quite right.

  127. 127.

    jwb

    @Bob Loblaw: You are correct, I misspoke, I meant that it is a claim that will be tested empirically. As for faith, have you looked at the internals of the polls that Nate includes in his model? There is a reason, you know, that Nate did not attempt to model the House races before this.

  128. 128.

    Yutsano

    @Mnemosyne: One other point to remember is we are still two months out and no one knows what the electoral scene will look like then. I don’t foresee any huge changes on the horizon, but I’m also not seeing any huge doom and gloom scenarios for the Democrats either. Obama did a few things this week that may just change the fortunes for some folks. The biggest one was reminding people just what it is they like about him. When he talks and he’s on point, he’ll beat anyone in the room.

    And Nate himself will freely admit he doesn’t get every race right. There is also the possibility his numbers were just a lucky one shot deal for 2008. We won’t know until November 3rd. But just in case I’m padding my bank account.

  129. 129.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Mnemosyne:

    This is utterly facile tripe.

    There isn’t a single person in this fucking thread, myself included, who’s bothered to look at even 1/10th of the House races this year, let alone all of them. You have no evidence with which to agree or disagree with 538’s modelling. You’ve done no work.

    You have sniff tests and “things not looking right.” That isn’t empirical. That isn’t evidence. That’s nothing.

    I don’t care about Nate’s modelling. I don’t actually give a shit who wins in races outside my congressional district and state. I don’t give them my money, I don’t give them my time. I don’t live there, it isn’t my business. I’ve got a governor’s race, a Senate race, a Congressional race and a smattering of local nonsense I’m invested in, and that’s it for me.

    When I see Silver give the Republicans a 66% chance of a House takeover, I say, “Hmm, that’s interesting. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but I don’t know anything near enough to confirm or deny his findings.” I don’t screech like a ring-tailed lemur that the NYT is forcing him to alter his tone, or worse his findings, because they don’t automatically confirm my ideal partisan narrative. There is, shockingly, a difference.

  130. 130.

    Bruce (formerly Steve S.)

    @Mnemosyne:

    if in November Nate’s predictions

    Nate hasn’t made a prediction, he has created a model that establishes a probability.

    @jwb:

    I just don’t believe his model is correct.

    I’m not even sure what this means.

  131. 131.

    Hal

    Can I just say how amused I’ve been of the “Dems in Trouble” headlines that have made their way into the news over the past few days. I’m mean, really? Dems are in trouble? Why, this is absolutely the first I’ve ever heard of it.

    Let me just say, from the bottom of my patriotic heart, what the fuck ever, America.

  133. 133.

    jwb

    @Yutsano: I actually have more faith in his Senate numbers than his House numbers, because the underlying polling is better, and the model is much closer to what he was using for the 2008 election. With the House, he’s really experimenting and he’s having to do a lot of extrapolation in lightly polled districts (not to mention that the polling for House races just tends to be rather hit and miss). It’s possible he’ll get it right (or get lucky), but it’s more likely that he’s missed some important factors or that the polls he’s using are just fundamentally flawed. I recall that his model for the British election did not prove terribly accurate. I think something similar will happen with his model here.

  134. 134.

    jwb

    @Bruce (formerly Steve S.): I should have said that I don’t believe his model is accurate, that its results do not reflect the underlying population he is modeling. That could be because he’s misweighted his variables or included the wrong ones; it could be because the polling data he is feeding into the model is bad; or, more likely, it could be a little of both.

    @Bob Loblaw: All I can say is that you, kind sir, are definitely in need of a life.

  135. 135.

    Anne Laurie

    @jeffreyw: HA! I believe “You Gonna Eat That?” is the Universal Dog Motto. Different breeds may change up the details on their coats of arms, but the motto stays the same. The Spousal Unit asked if I wanted it translated into Latin, for heraldry purposes, but I say that Dog is always in the vulgar tongue…

  136. 136.

    Bruce (formerly Steve S.)

    @jwb:

    That could be because he’s misweighted his variables or included the wrong ones; it could be because the polling data he is feeding into the model is bad;

    Well, yeah, could be. Any particular reason you think those things happened?

  137. 137.

    Mnemosyne

    @Bob Loblaw:

    There isn’t a single person in this fucking thread, myself included, who’s bothered to look at even 1/10th of the House races this year, let alone all of them. You have no evidence with which to agree or disagree with 538’s modelling. You’ve done no work.
    __
    You have sniff tests and “things not looking right.” That isn’t empirical. That isn’t evidence. That’s nothing.

    I see you’re making the common mistake of looking at numbers and assuming that they are always strictly factual. There’s a reason for Mark Twain’s famous delineation of “lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

    Statistical and other mathematical models fail us all the time when it comes to predicting human behavior. See the now-classic Wired article, “Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street.” In that case, they had all kinds of pretty numbers to show that they were totally right, and the only thing that people had who thought it was a bad idea was, “I dunno, it doesn’t smell right.”

    Nate could be right, but jwb isn’t the only one looking at his numbers, scratching their heads, and thinking, “Really, you think Mickey Rourke is going to win the Oscar? I dunno, I can’t explain it, but that doesn’t smell right.”

  141. 141.

    WaterGirl

    @soonergrunt:Happy, happy news! So glad you are home again and posting! But you are making too much sense for someone on pain meds, so please take your drugs.

    Yes, our president did kick some serious ass today, and it sure felt good.

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