Could we be looking at a threefer tonight, with O’Donnell, Lamontagne, and Paladino all winning?
Let me know where you find good links for live vote tallies. That paper in Wilmington was ten minutes ahead of Politico and TPM on Delaware stuff.
Update. With 20%, Paladino is up by 40+ in NYS. But upstate usually comes in first.
MikeJ
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/election.shtml
Davis X. Machina
New Hampshire is a slow count… lots of small towns and paper ballots.
MikeJ
@Davis X. Machina: Dixville Notch gets ém counted quick.
Steaming Pile
Paladino doesn’t have to win in New York. Lazio is unelectable enough as it is.
parksideq
NY Times – FiveThirtyEight has a liveblog going here.
beltane
@Davis X. Machina: If New Hampshire counts votes like Vermont (and I think the smaller towns do) it could be a while.
DougJ
@MikeJ:
NYS better get them quick tonight. I had to vote on some crazy optically scanned thing that supposedly tabulates on the fly (while keeping a hard copy record). I liked the old machines.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
As I said on Twitter (and I’m not suggesting this is terribly original), if teatards keep winning primaries, we’re either saved come November, or we’re incredibly fucked, but there’s precious little middle ground to be had here.
Texas Dem
Not sure who I should be pulling for in the NH GOP senate primary. Who is crazier, and therefore more beatable? Please advise.
parksideq
@Steaming Pile: It’s not about Cuomo having a better chance at winning. It’s about absolutely crushing the GOP in the governor’s race, not to mention that watching that loser Lazio lose even harder to a whackjob like Paladino as opposed to a respectable opponent like Coumo is icing on my cake.
Davis X. Machina
@MikeJ: They can — but only because there’s less than two dozen voters…and the baleful glare of the media.
The others… lots of old ladies in cardigans, with reading glasses on chains.
Allison W.
Yeah, it doesn’t matter which GOP wins in NY
DougJ
@Allison W.:
It matters to me.
KG
@Steaming Pile: Lazio? That tool is still around?
MikeJ
When will Nate Silver learn to shave and get rid of his Hitler stache?
Gozer
OT, but since we are talking about teabagger craziness I figured I’d share something I came across not too long ago: How Republicans Party. (Via)
beltane
I harvested some obscene looking carrots this afternoon. They reminded me of Christine O’Donnell.
Lev
Lazio should have rehired Greenzo. Could have made a difference…
Martin
Castle blew it. After the man-pants comment its clear the voters wanted him to demand a debate and spend the hour jizzing on her face.
Davis X. Machina
Instantly thought of this….
JGabriel
@Allison W.:
Echoing DougJ, it matters to me too.
A Paladino win guarantees a much higher percentage for Cuomo – we’re talking the kind of margin that let’s a candidate fairly say he has a mandate from the voters.
Lazio loses, but probably not with as wide a margin, nor as entertainingly.
Plus, the idea of Lazio losing because he’s too liberal? That’s pure comedy gold.
.
freelancer
@Lev:
Han shot Greenzo first.
eemom
So I just got home from Back to School Night — looks like Teabagmentum rulez, yeeehaaaaw.
Doing my part here in ole Virginny — I snarled at the woman shilling for the repubobot outside the school, which is kind of a tradition I have on Back to School Night whenever they dare to peddle their vile wares on school grounds. Campaign season officially underway!
J.W. Hamner
I honestly find this possibility more frightening than encouraging.
While the Tea Party is hurting the GOP here, it’s still possible that some of these lunatics might get elected. Reid isn’t exactly pwnzoring Angle after all… and she’s like the lunatic singularity.
Martin
I didn’t expect the GOP strategy to backfire quite in this way. The whole ‘party of no’ effort was to poison incumbents and while they might lose a bunch of Republican seats, the Democrats far and away had the most to lose.
But it’s now pretty clear that they went too far and have cost the GOP the ability to capture a lot of these seats with traditional candidates.
And if DE makes anything crystal clear – turnout will be the ONLY thing that matters in Nov. Dems need a big injection of energy here, but if they can get that, I think they’ll be alright. The results tonight look substantially different, either in outcome or magnitude, than what any of the experts were predicting even last week. A strong showing here the next 6 weeks could really make a difference. Looks like even Reid has figured that one out.
Corner Stone
@Davis X. Machina: Are you saying they have a slow hand? And an easy touch?
Tom Levenson
@Davis X. Machina: Coke up the nose, man. That was cruel and delightful.
That's Master of Accountancy to You, Pal (JMN)
Unfortunately, Ayotte seems to be making up ground pretty quickly as the interminably slow NH returns come in.
garage mahal
I want to give money tonight, but why Grayson [everywhere]? Feingold could use it more my thinking goes, may I ask where the best place to give is? Feingold is my Senator.
steviez314
And maybe on Friday, Murkowski announces her write-in candidacy.
This is getting fun.
Sly
I’m hoping that a Paladino win because that will be incontrovertible evidence that the people who oppose Park 51 are purely expressing opinions related to the wisdom of building the structure and not any legal implications relating to the state using its power to crush free exercise.
Ahasuerus
Nate Silver is reporting that O’Donnell won, with a 6% margin. Are we having fun yet?
Bob Loblaw
@Martin:
She basically won by calling Castle a gaywad for two months and having tits.
But with turnout like what was shown tonight (over 30% in a fucking primary?!), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that she will still get blown out like she did in 06 and 08. Lord knows the Kochs have enough money to saturate the Philly market with all kinds of bullshit.
Davis X. Machina
Ayotte has the Mama Grizzly pulling for her, after all. I’m not sure I want to live next door to a state where you can outflank the Palinite candidate from the right.
Ed Marshall
I’ll laugh my ass off so hard if the GOP misses a majority in the Senate only because of these morons. It would be a bitter pill given how bullshit the democratic majority is with Nelson and Leiberman and the like is now, but it would still make me happy in late November for a few minutes.
SIA
@Ahasuerus: I saw an interview with her and it was hard to tell her apart from La Palin. She’s Sarah’s younger, less ‘road hard and put up wet’ sister. Pass teh popcorn pleez.
morzer
@Davis X. Machina:
I now have a horrid vision of just what Mama Grizzly might be pulling.
Strong drugs, now!
drew42
@DougJ: I’d actually prefer it if Lazio won. He was a joke in 2000 (I know someone who worked in his campaign — endless fun to bring that up) and he hasn’t improved since. Lazio would have no chance in the general election.
I’m more concerned that a Tea Party candidate would go all “I’m Mad As Hell, And I’m Not Going To Take It!” and stir up votes.
And we have new voting machines now, too — Sequoia brand. Filled in my choices with ink and fed it into a machine. All I got was a “thank you” with no confirmation on my choices. Although I was distracted, since my kids were with me asking questions throughout, so maybe I missed it. The lever-pull machines were better — nice healthy “ka-chunk!” when you finish.
Allison W.
@DougJ:
Why? Don’t you think Cuomo has a great chance of winning?
DougJ
@Bob Loblaw:
Imagine what they’ll do to Lindsey Graham. And I’m not kidding.
DougJ
@Allison W.:
Cuomo will win by at least 20 points regardless. But there are a lot of upstate Republicans who like to pretend they are centrist. A Paladino victory will be a sign that they should Suck On This.
Allison W.
@SIA:
You just reminded me of the movie All About Eve.
PurpleGirl
I’m looking at the NY1 website for election numbers.
http://www.ny1.com/content/news_beats/primary_2010_returns/
PurpleGirl
It could play out that Lazio wins the Conservative Party line and Paladino wins the Republican Party Line. With Cuomo as the Democrat, it becomes a three-way race and, well, Cuomo wins.
Ahasuerus
@DougJ: I know you’re not kidding. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy, eh? Schadenfreude FTW.
And you may get your wish – 538 says Paladino has an early lead.
Allison W.
@JGabriel:
Hmm…Cuomo strikes me as the type of guy who would claim he has a mandate whether he actually has one or not. I want the tea party crushed also, but a win is a win.
SIA
@Allison W.:
“Fasten your seat belts. It’s going to be a bumpy night“.
Martin
@Bob Loblaw: Well, like I said, turnout will be key. If Dems don’t show in November and the rest of the GOP sucks it up and sticks with teh crazy, she’ll win the seat.
Turnout is everything. Crazy fuckers tend to help the opposition though. Even if Dems aren’t thrilled about their candidate, O’Donnell or [insert batshit Republican here] will scare them shitless.
Allison W.
@SIA:
Ha ha….I love it!
Bob Loblaw
@DougJ:
His only prayer is that he’s not up until 2014. Whoever would have thought the crazies would start using the Atwater playbook within their own party?
Don’t think this isn’t secretly terrifying the Democratic operatives as much as the Republican establishment. Some of these people across the country will win. They’ll be our next congressmen and senators. This is gonna be the clusterfuck to end all clusterfucks.
Lev
@Bob Loblaw: What, are you quoting Righteous Kill now?
Ahasuerus
@SIA: I can’t watch either of them. The contempt they display for reality makes me want to throw things at my television.
Martin
Oh, and let’s not forget the collateral damage here. From the GOP perspective Castle at worst represented a loss of a House seat and a pickup in the Senate – a slam-dunk of a trade. Now, it’s looking like the GOP may not pick up the Senate after all, and might lose the House seat. And depending on how O’Donnell affects turnout (my experience is that it should seriously favor the Dems), that could to translate into quite a bit of help in the House race for the Dem.
It’s going to be interesting.
PurpleGirl
Damn. With 755 of 15385 precincts reporting (4.91%)), Rice is ahead of Schneiderman, roughly double the number of votes.
While I didn’t see any Rice commercials, just knowing she liked the Rockefeller drug laws makes her a no-way for me.
Lev
The Dems are running John Carney for Castle’s House seat. Guy’s one of the state’s most popular politicians. He’s a lock.
That's Master of Accountancy to You, Pal (JMN)
@Martin: I’m pretty sure that Mike Castle had planned to retire, so the Dems would be picking up the House seat anyway.
PanAmerican
@DougJ:
I contend he’s been positioning himself to do Crist for most of the year. Ya know, just in case.
kos has PPP exit numbers for Castle voters in DE. 44-28 for Coons. Game over man.
Steve
My conservative pal gleefully voted for Paladino. He says the NY GOP won’t fix anything until they hit absolute rock bottom, and besides, it’s not like Lazio has ever done anything to deserve anyone’s vote.
Martin
GOS is showing a stat from PPP that Castle primary voters prefer Coons over O’Donnell 44-28. What a clusterfuck.
DougJ
@Steve:
I can’t blame people for not wanting to vote for Lazio, I’ll grant that.
Steve
@DougJ: Freedom’s just another word for Cuomo being a shoo-in. My Paladino-voting friend is pro-mosque, by the way.
DougJ
@Steve:
I know a lot of non-crazy New York State Republicans. When I heard someone up here is Republican, I don’t automatically assume they’re an idiot.
Tom Q
@PurpleGirl: You didn’t see any Rice commercials? Did you put your TV in storage?
Ailuridae
I think its appropriate to celebrate good news from Delaware with one of the states finest products.’
Ailuridae +1
groundhum
DougJ,
Ontario County is tallying live as is
Steuben County.
I have to wonder who’s getting the write-ins in Steuben, but I’m trying not to.
Steve
@DougJ: It looks like Lazio may end up on the Conservative line anyway, humorously.
Anya
@PanAmerican: wait till they start the dirty campaign and make the Dem candidate sound like an Anti-Colonialist Kenyan. Though she is sounding like a a typical teatard, and I don’t think that plays well in Delaware.
PurpleGirl
@Tom Q: No; I tend to watch cable channels like TNT, Discovery ID, History, National Geographic. I hardly ever watch one of the old broadcast channels. I read a few references about her on-line. I saw commercials for three of the other four candidates.
JGabriel
Bob Loblaw:
Which makes me wonder if O’Donnell is a self-hating closet lesbian. Why would someone fear sex so much unless she had desires she couldn’t accept in herself?
.
Sly
Newsday has frequent updates on the NY Primaries. Direct link to the Paladino-Lazio race is here.
Jeffro
loving, Loving, LOVING this in DE…who knew Christmas had picked up and moved to mid-September?!?
JGabriel
drew42:
You didn’t miss it. I got the same thing, with no kids to distract me.
I miss the lever machines too. They felt SOLID.
.
Sly
Lazio might still have some Long Island connections, but its important to remember that (a) he represented the more moderate 2nd District, which has been consistently Democratic since 2000, and (b) he’s been out of office for a decade. The 3rd District is the only real Republican-heavy area of downstate NY anymore.
Whether he’s more palatable for a NYC Republican than Paladino is a fair question, but considering that nowadays NYC Republicans are like pandas, does it really matter?
Tom Q
@JGabriel: Agreed. There was that wonderful SNAP! — I voted, dammit!
It was easy enough to do today, but I wonder, on a busy election day, with all sorts of people new to the system, if it could really get bottlenecked.
Sly
The Times has Paladino has 68% with 33% of counties reporting.
Holy Fuck.
Tom Q
From Paul Begala (via Swing State Project):
“If Christine O’Donnell can’t stand masturbation, she’ll hate the US Senate.”
mclaren
Folks, I analyzed this horse race more than a year ago — the overriding question now is, “Can Republicans get crazier faster than the Democrats can get more spineless?”
We’ll know in November.
Anya
Paladino wins! WTF?? I didn’t think their were that many insane idiots in NY. How can they vote for someone that crazy? Not that Lazio is any better but at least he is not a dirty old man.
hilzoy
With 43% of MD votes counted, Brendan Madigan still has 25% of the vote. That means that so far, 27,632 votes for him have been counted. Which is sort of mind-blowing.
PurpleGirl
New York’s governor’s race will be a three way contest: Cuomo for the Democrats, Lazio for the Conservative Party and Paladino for the Republicans.
PurpleGirl
In other NY races: Rangel is beating Adam Clayton Powell IV.
Carolyn Maloney is besting Reshma Saujani so far.
MattR
@PurpleGirl: And Newsday has Schneiderman up 105,194 to 104,913 on Rice with 57.2% reporting.
catclub
@Davis X. Machina:
Has anyone else noted that Palin backs establishment candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire?
JGabriel
@PurpleGirl:
Good. I voted for Maloney. I would have liked a young, energetic progressive to vote for, but Saujani was going to end up beholden to the Wall Street crowd that financed her campaign. And there’s really very little to complain of in Maloney’s actual voting record, even if she occasionally says some stupid shit.
.
JGabriel
@catclub:
Pretty much everyone that’s paying attention. Sorry, CC.
And yeah, it’s an obvious play to maintain good relations with the establishment in those states, leaving Palin free to burnish her teahadi cred and endorse extremists in places like DE, where she doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning anyway.
.
Chris G.
It would be really mean of people to join O’Donnell’s Facebook page, then post links to videos of that DiVinyls song.