I was looking at the latest poll in the Ohio governor’s race.
I wasn’t surprised that the race appears to be tied. Despite media’s best efforts to call it for Kasich, Strickland has been saying for weeks that it’s close.
I was surprised at the income distribution of people who plan to vote for Strickland. They’re middle class. The median household income in Ohio is about $48,000.
Sherrod Brown defines “a middle class household” in Ohio at $43,000.
In the $40,000 to 59,999 income level, Strickland beats Kasich by 16 points. In fact, Strickland beats Kasich by double digits at each and every income level until we get to the highest income level, which in this poll is “$60,000 and over”, and that’s where we finally see John Kasich pull ahead.
If you’re in Ohio and want to meet some real live members of the elusive and mysterious middle class that media and pundits are always yammering nonsensically about, do GOTV for Strickland.
General Stuck
So far, early voting does not indicate a dem party laying down for the wingnuts, and I read that Ohio is showing a particularly robust GOTV operation, along with some other states. Of course the frothing wingnuts get the headlines for passion, but a crazy person vote counts the same as a normal human.
gbear
Yeah, but there’s only 47 people left in that income bracket.
jwb
@General Stuck: You forgot that wingnut multiplier: crazy counts at least 10. If it doesn’t apply to the election, well that’s just evidence of how badly Acorn has the election game rigged, right?
BGinCHI
Excellent point about gotv. The GOP has won the media narrative: the Tea Party is the second coming. But if and when ordinary voters come out and vote for candidates with ideas and principles, who haven’t been supported by insane amounts of money, the Dems will do well.
Gotv is the key, in this election more than ever.
max
In fact, Strickland beats Kasich by double digits at each and every income level until we get to the highest income level, which in this poll is “$60,000 and over”, and that’s where we finally see John Kasich pull ahead.
Sounds about right to me. Those are almost invariably the numbers you see anytime you dig down into the polls going back as long as I can remember. ‘Middle class’ has simply been redefined when the media talks about it to include the well off, and mostly only the well off. But that’s who they know. Ohio is still union territory.
max
[‘I’m sure they think of Sarah Palin as middle class. I think she’s just lowbrow.’]
Kay
@BGinCHI:
Republicans have insane amounts of money in Ohio. They’re throwing it around, with no particular aim.
I get a several pieces of direct mail a day from Karl Rove, and there is no one in my household that is voting for any Republican.
Still, Strickland’s within two. They’ve thrown bushels of money at beating him, and they still can’t put him away.
ThresherK
I wasn’t surprised that the race appears to be tied. Despite media’s best efforts to call it for Kasich…
Nobody ever lost a job editing, reporting, or writing headlines overestimating the chances of a Republican candidate. Nobody’s ombud ever had to file a “mistakes were made” op-ed after that.
Omnes Omnibus
@max:
There are those who would argue that there is a difference between money and class.
dmsilev
@ThresherK:
I think there were a few mea culpas after ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’. The exception that proves the rule, I guess.
dms
Martin
From Josh regarding a PA poll:
I don’t know how a polling outfit can release a poll like that. In 2006, 35% of voters were 18-39. There’s no reason to not expect at least a 30% turnout this election in that demographic.
I think the cellphone effect that we talked about so much in 2008 might finally be surfacing.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@gbear:
What I would like to see is a calculation of average income after removing the top 3%-5%. I bet that would drop the average a bit. Make it state by state so we can see the distribution a bit better.
Nick
@dmsilev:
Ah, but you don’t remember the “well, by calling the election for Dewey, Republicans in California thought it was in the bag, went to bed and didn’t vote thus throwing the election to Truman”
Josie
@Kay: I don’t think you have to vote Republican to be on their list. I wrote Senator Cornyn once to tell him he was full of shit for something he did. That was two years ago and I still get e-mails and snail mail asking for money and support. I have asked to be deleted from the list and sent snarling messages, but it does no good.
ThresherK
@Nick: That all was a bit before my time. But I do remember the Savvy were all “Give It Up, Al” in 2000.
After Election Day? No, that narrative was set in stone by Columbus Day.
Yutsano
@Martin:
I know I don’t own a landline. Hell I had a cable tech friend of mine come in to see if my house was wired for one (it is, but it’s blocked off). So I have zero doubt they are way undercounting the young folks.
Bill Murray
@Odie Hugh Manatee: median incomes do this more or less. Median income being the income at which half the incomes are above and half below this income level. The census data for that is at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/statemedfaminc.html
The median family income in Ohio for 2008-2009 was $46,317.5
Linda Featheringill
@Josie:
I am still getting emails from Cornyn, too.
Let’s see . . He is Senator, Republican, from somewhere. I contacted his office in support of repealing DADT.
I get emails from a couple more of Republican Senators that I contacted during the same campaign, and I have forgotten what states they represent, too.
I’m such a lucky girl to have all that attention!
Josie
@Linda Featheringill: He is from Texas, much to my dismay and shame, and he is a total douche.
Wile E. Quixote
@ThresherK:
Of course not, because they didn’t overestimate the chances of the Republican candidate, those elections were stolen from the Republican candidate by ACORN, the SEIU and the Black Panthers.
Lynnia
Slightly OT — I made 300 GOTV calls for Sestak in Pittsburgh this weekend. I’ve never done this before, and I was really apprehensive about calling random people on the phone, but I just kept telling myself that as much I would hate calling people, I would hate having Toomey as a senator much more. It turned out to be really fun and cathartic — it feels much better than cursing at my computer after I read about the latest tea party idiocy.
I talked to lots of people who were pretty excited to vote for Sestak and even to volunteer for GOTV next week. On the downside, lots of numbers had been disconnected, and I called a bunch of twentysomethings who had since graduated from Pitt and left PA.
Overall, though, I can’t help but be at least a little optimistic, as well as happy that I’m finally doing something concrete. I’m excited to go back and do more later in the week.
SiubhanDuinne
@Josie #13: The requirements of my job have me meeting literally (literally!) hundreds of state and municipal-level officials throughout the southeast. I leave my card with most of them, and — it may be a few months, it may be many years — but by god, every one of them who runs for re-election or higher office adds me to their database and call list. Even though I can’t possibly vote for them (assuming I even would!), I am inundated with emails and phone calls. I leave myself on most of their distribution lists, as it’s occasionally possible to glean a bit of useful information. But lordy lordy, this stuff eats a lot of pixels.
Jay C
@Nick:
Nice snark, but not what really happened: the editors of the Chicago Tribune had set up two front pages for Election Night to run the appropriate one for the next day’s edition. However, by the time the press deadline hit, the returns from the West Coast hadn’t been tallied (the polls in CA had already closed, but counting proceeded more slowly in 1948), so the editor went with what seemed like the “correct” result.
Of all the papers this could have happened to, the Trib was, in a way, the most appropriate: Col. Robert McCormick, its owner, was an ultra-right wingnut and fanatical Republican who loathed Harry Truman with a passion. It had to have galled immensely that the famous photo of “Dewey Defeats Truman” – political icon forever – would be from his paper. Heh. Indeed.
Nick
@Jay C:
I know, i was saying that’s how the reporters and editors who got it wrong spun their mistake to make it look like it wasn’t their fault.
I know the whole history of that night, how it looks obvious that Dewey would win California, Illinois, Ohio and Idaho because he was up big in counting and they ran with the result when they had missed that the precincts in San Francisco, Boise, Chicago and Cleveland had yet to come in, which flipped all four states to Truman. Fascinating to know that probably wouldn’t happen today.
RalfW
Speaking of 60K as middle class, I had to turn off the insane yammering on NPR this afternoon when Marketplace weekend was cooing on about how $250,000 really isn’t all that much income, practically middle-class, y’know. Asshats.
I like a lot about NPR, but they’re insanely classist.
RalfW
Also, too, Dayton seems to be ahead in MN for Governor, and Maryland and Colorado appear to be choosing Dems. Hardly a silver lining, but it’s something positive here and there.
Nick
@RalfW:
Oh good God, my parents make $200,000 a year and live outside one of the most expensive cities in the world and they’re doing better than fine.
I fucking hate this lick the ass of the rich attitude.
James E. Powell
The problem is that those 60K and up people are all going to vote at a higher rate than the <60K people.
And for Ohio, I wonder, too, whether Democratic votes in Cuyahoga County are going to be lower than expected due to the ongoing criminal cases against the county party's leadership.
Elizabelle
@Lynnia:
Proud of you. Especially for lining up more volunteers for GOTV — THAT’s a measure of enthusiasm.
Balloon Juicers: take any opportunity to get out there and call or knock on doors.
Voters are paying more attention than you would think.
You can make a difference.
debbie
I’ve noticed the ads for Strickland are sharper than they’ve been previously. More direct and cutting than in the past, calling Kasich’s plans “schemes” and pointing out how Kasich likely made millions off Ohioans’ backs. Plus, Strickland’s hard hatter is much more realistic than Kasich’s — he’s older and his sneer is a whole lot better.
debbie
Wow! Kasich just crapped out on a Talk of the Nation appearance with Strickland, 10 minutes before air time, because he didn’t want to take questions from the listening audience.