Rather than continue to be emo and/or obnoxious, I’m just checking out for a few days. WVU lost. Steelers lost. Tomorrow will be a bloodbath. Thank goodness I will be traveling tomorrow and miss all the coverage. So, this is John Cole checking out at least until tomorrow night, at which point I hope to be somewhat sedated.
And don’t forget to order your 2011 Pet Calendar by clicking to the right…
I just hope to god that Bob Huggins can keep the basketball team relevant, John, since apparently it’s gonna take another Pat White for us to be nationally relevant as a football team again.
I’ll take “one hour from now” in the “when will John post again” pool. Any other guesses?
I think we’ve seen this number before. Countdown to a slightly buzzed snarky late night post…..
Cole will return in 3…2…1.
Perhaps we can all take this time to go on the record:
I think Dems maintain control of both houses.
i’ll take 3 hours.
If this happened, I’d be deliriously happy. Partly because I think it’s the best thing for the country and partly because it would be a giant FU to the teabaggers, Fox “News”, etc. I’m not holding my breath, though.
Worthlessberger looked…..well…worthless last nite. At least my Iowa Hawkeyes pounded some MSU wannabes.
Also love the optics of Charles Toddler calling Pelosi “a punching bag”. Great visuals, you fuckstain.
Que Sera Sera
What’s to be emo about? You already established your narrative about “it’s the firebaggers fault,” even though your years of unflagging wingnut-dom is far more responsible for the current state of affairs than any lefty’s bitching.
Has anyone ever pointed out that you are the biggest WATB of them all? Oh, boohoo, being a dem is hard and people are mean to me. Christ, act like you have a pair.
Don’t retreat. Reload. Stay the course also, too.
House goes, Senate stays. The final season of Curb Your Enthusiasm will disappoint, and my Crimson Tide will win a second straight national championship.
ugh, yes Steelers lost, and with not much of a fight it seemed.
Not too optimistic about tuesday. But I don’t think it will be as bad as most are predicting.
If dems control both houses I hope, and encourage, the most stifling pile on the media has ever experienced about their reportage leading up to this election. It’s been simply atrocious. The election has been called for the republicans, and if (when) it doesn’t happen we need to make sure it’s a double dose of crow and egg-on-face for EVERYONE involved.
I’ve got dibs on 24 minutes ’till the next post.
Wasn’t John supposed to go Galt for two weeks or something?
This being an open thread, I need to share this wintastic image one of my contacts came up with.
I think there comes a point where something fails so hard it rolls over and turns into win.
@El Tiburon: I suspect that they may by 1 seat, which would be in line with “maximum rage/trolling” rule that seems to have been in effect since 2008.
The polls are unreliable.
Unless someone can explain to me how they have adjusted themselves for the massive shifts in cell phone usage, caller id, and those “likely voter” demographics.
You know… what science are they using now?
So John, did you get many trick-or-treaters, and did you enjoy yelling at them to get off your lawn? :)
SamKitten as a bear, for your viewing pleasure.
@El Tiburon: I think anything could go here. I’ve read the polls, and the crosstabs look like shit on most of them. I think it’s a cointoss who holds the House.
Over at the GOS, Real World New York City Original castmember Kevin Powell is exhorting the faithful to keep the Obama dream alive.
Perhaps “Remote Control” babe Kari Wuhrer is out stumping for Pelosi.
Anyone watch the premier of “The Walking Dead” on A&E last night. I’ve got it DVRed. Should I walk or run to watch it?
My buddy had a Dodge Omni in high school. When the car was on it’s last legs we cut out the wheel wells, and put truck wheels/tires on. We thrashed that POS through the woods for a full weekend, until it died and we towed it to a Walmart parking lot and left it.
Mr. Cole. You are mistaken.
But I will gladly correct your mistake.
You are happy because the Giants won last night. You are getting in a happy mood about the Giants so you can enjoy the celebration when you get here, and have a big happy smile on your face when you visit the Giants’ stadium to pay homage to the world champions of baseball.
Don’t you feel better already?
Nobody has any frikkin’ idea what will happen except House = R and Senate = D. The statistics for this election have been the most discussed load of horseshit of all time. Like trying to read the Times over someone’s shoulder from orbit. Not enough resolution to even spot the county, much less zoom in on the front page.
But hey, it’s all about the horse race. The issues? They just lie there not attracting attention, so to hell with them. The media’s got airtime to fill.
Que Sera Sera
OTOH, with a preemptive concession, maybe John has internalized what it means to bea mainstream dem.
@Kryptik: What has Huggins done to make you even doubt it?
Oh, ha ha ha. What is it about little kids in halloween costumes that is just both adorable and hilarious? Love it.
I’m in a fuck everyone mood. Watching this past 2 years has sucked. When both sides make you facepalm in disbelief, it’s a bad year to give up drinking.
we’re not falling for that going Galt stuff again…
Que Sera Sera
ruemera: Now you are on record as owning the dem losses. Why do you hate America?
Speaking of, is anyone else not to thrilled with the current “Eastbound and Down”? I am just not feeling it.
And as a UT Longhorn, it is my understanding that the current NCAA Division 1 football season has been canceled.
John, John — people still need to be encouraged to phone bank, canvass, poll watch, etc. in the next 24 hours.
You should be here cheerleading that. Instead, you seem to be encouraging hiding under the covers.
(Forgive my sanctimony, but I think it’s warranted.)
@RedKitten: Wonderful! The only way it would’ve been better, and that’s even debatable, is if he’d dressed as a miniature version of the always enjoyable giant inflatable beaver.
A very blond science nerd friend had a beige Dodge Dart, ugliest car in creation, that he had to leave at LAX airport while he was out of town for a week. So his buddies got together and painted it all over with black, orange and red flames, put huge dice hanging from the mirror, and painted “La Bamba” on it. Course he arrived home in the middle of the night and had to drive home to his place in East LA. His messican neighbors razzed him for weeks about his car.
@Bnut: Looks like it’s going to be a hard year for you. Go Ducks!
@Que Sera Sera:
lol. it’s funny, lefty bloggers go after the president and other dems instead of the GOP, and then call out cole for bitching about it, saying he’s not sufficiently attacking the guys they themselves ignore.
Put my money in the “Ranting; increasingly drunk” basket, please.
Oh, so adorable! Did he dress as a bear in honor of the Keep Fear Alive portion of this weekend’s rally?
Nothing in particular. I just find myself worried about losing lynchpins like Ebanks (who I still find slightly overrated, but only just) and Butler. That and Cottrill being suspended. Nothing on Huggins, I just hope we have the right guys to make a deep tournament run again. I don’t want to see a flameout like what happened against Dayton two years ago.
Well, that’s better than TPM which has been nothing but gloom and doom lately. Love Josh but I’ve got some ideas about what he can do with his poll averages.
I hope the media enjoys the gaggle of miscreants, war criminals, whore mongers, cuckolds, fascists, stooges and nitwits who will be berating them as lamestream media and running from them and mocking them when they aren’t asking for face time on their networks and column time in their papers.
Fucking enjoy assholes, you’ve earned the ridicule.
Pleased to report that my first two Pets of Balloon Juice calendars have shipped! And I have major anxiety about tomorrow but then that’s just me being a normal Democrat (felt the same way in 2008).
@WereBear: Speaking of squee, you posted a picture yesterday or Saturday of young Tristan (I love that name!) who recently discovered one of his paws. I love how tiny tots like him grow up to be sooooooooooooo beautiful. Cats are magic.
@Catsy: Just goes to prove that duct tape makes everything better.
My son needed to make a shoe as part of a writing assignment and then write about how the shoe represents who he is. The other kids made theirs out of various craft things – the girls made theirs cute and proper, the boys made sports shoes – mostly 2D. My son wrapped one of his old too-small shoes in duct tape – sticky side out, with a 2nd layer sticky side in. Used a hole punch to make holes for laces and then laced the shoe. It fit him quite well, and was waterproof. It was a functional shoe and took about 10 minutes to make.
You can do anything with duct tape.
Agreed. Season #2 is just not as funny as season #1. I liked the way Kenny Powers interacted with his family and his students in season #1. It was much funnier last year.
Next thing you know he’ll be making a bridge. No, wait, Mythbusters did that already. Hrm…Soapbox Derby Car, maybe?
@merrinc: I dunno, TPM did have this gem up today:
Open thread note: The two Soldiers from Fort Richardson who roughed up a reporter in Alaska as part of Joe Miller’s private security detail were working moonlight jobs without permission from the Army. The Alaska Daily News quotes a MAJ Rodney Crum, a Public Affairs Officer.
This could be rather bad for them. I doubt there’d be jail time, but Field Grade Article 15’s are probably in the offing.
Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/10/30/1527839/2010-election-in-brief.html#ixzz143NFyOc1
@Kryptik: Yeah, well, I understand your reluctance to embrace success. I’m a New Mexico alumnus. We don’t expect to win even when we’re winning.
Today there are PINK Linda McMahon signs all over the blog. Pleeze.
Sorry you can’t enjoy Dem-ocalypse.
But let me leave you with a few words from the Great Obama, the Post-Racial Uniter who Lowers the Seas and Heals the Earth:
“Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of their women!”
In 24 hours the recriminations will be under way. I can hardly wait.
Sam is absolutely, unequivocally adorable – thank you for helping me to get Paladino’s disturbing visage out of my mind’s eye.
Oh my gosh, he’s gotten so big! And adorable.
Que Sera Sera
Chopper: Actually, I called him a whiny little bitch, just like you. What of it, chumpsteak?
Midterm losses were going to happen anyway, and the economy seals the deal. Add in the MSM narrative and the fecklessness and ignorance of the vast majority of American people, things are falling out about the way it should be expected.
Now, I know John has a habit of blaming ‘the left’ for all the worlds ills, but how does that justify this pathetic little spiel of his?
All the viral marketing for the 2nd season of Eastbound and Down have been better than the show.
@RedKitten: LOL! That’s great, and I’m sure that look netted him plenty of bonus sweets. The first two years Bottle Rocket went trick-or-treating (age 3 and 4) he wore a plushy, cozy costume similar to SamKitten’s except it was a raccoon. He’d toddle up to the neighbors’ front doors and squeak out a passable facsimile of “trick or treat,” and the neighbors would stuff whole handfuls of candy into his pumpkin bucket as soon as they got over being dead from cute. I of course do the same thing; tiny kidlets who come to my door on Halloween don’t just get a few pieces, they get as much as I can grab with my whole hand. I love Halloween. :)
My husband and I are headed out of town. WE are taking the dogs on a littlevacation and will not have TV coverage for the next three days.
I’m trying to prepare myself to hae Rossi as Senator from Washington.
I’m sorry E.D., but an electorate that replaces Patty Murray with Rossi is insane.
I prefer to wait for actual results before freaking out. Call me crazy.
I think 53-54 in the Senate and 225 in the House.
This is not a scientific estimate, but it’s probably as good as anything out there.
Any guesses on Harry Reid?
@Que Sera Sera:
lol, a bit touchy, eh? it’s okay, calling someone a bitch on the internet is better than crying, which is what i’m imagining you’re actually doing right now.
Calendar ordered…looking forward to seeing all of our furry overlords in print
First sense I’ve heard all day.
Is there some REASON we can’t wait till the polls close tomorrow to do the drama-queening? Will there not be plenty of time for that LATER if all the dire prognostications come to fruition?
I’ve hated — hated — all this gloom and dooming all along as I firmly believe it is a self fulfilling prophecy. How about giving it a rest now and recharging for the full metal ohmygodwe’reallgonnadie freakout on Wednesday?
Que Sera Sera
FWIW, I think that humping the ‘firebagger’ narrative is just as stupid and lazy as it is for the MSM to hump the ‘teabagger’ narrative. The difference is that expected more from Cole.
I overestimated his fortitude. I guess it turns out that he is more constitutionally suited for being a Rethuglican.
Sadly, it seems insane seems not only accepted but a requirement these days.
I agree. My confidence in my political/media spidey sense has been vastly overinflated by my correct predictions on the Stewart/Colbert rally. (Can haz pundit gig, pleeze?) I think the Democrats will hold both houses because a sufficiently large number of “normal” people–people perhaps even motivated or inspired in part by the rally on Saturday–will make the effort to go to the polls to do their small part to stanch the crazy. There will be losses, sure, and there will be some world-class wingnuts elected to office, but I think the Dems hold both houses.
There. I said it. And I feel good about it. Stanch the crazy!
But despair not — Christine Gregoire will keep “finding ballots” until Patty bin Murray wins. Stealing elections from Dino Rossi is the one thing Gregoire is actually good at!
john and the FPers have been encouraging all that shit for a long time here. if anyone here isn’t GOTV because cole didn’t push it on the last day, they weren’t going to do it in the first place.
@Que Sera Sera: You got a little brown on your lip, right there. No, there…a little further to the right…
ETA I gotta order a calendar for my riverkeeper friend ’cause that’s his kitten coming outa my pocket at the top of October! Three, count ’em, three pics o’ mine made it in! Yay! Now, on to phonebank GOTV…
Tiny, disheveled bear is cute!
That’s b/c it’s going to the Republibaggers, and that’s just reality. Going to be an absolute landslide.
@RedKitten: @quaint irene:
OK, This too.
And I give Cole until 5:45 before another post. By then someone will certainly have been wrong on the internet.
Ah, look at the childish liberal lemmings fighting it out amongst themselves in a circular firing squad already.
Ready for the the Republican tsunami tomorrow? Prepare to be shocked, it will be even worse than you imagine…
Que Sera Sera
Chopper: Sure whatev. If you noticed the OP, John is the one who is crying, but whatever gets you through the day.
After all, I am the one with the hugely popular and sucessful political blog, right? Oh, wait . . .
@Ross Hershberger: I’m not convinced of that. Senate polling includes names – it’s much more accurate. Lots of House races haven’t been polled or have been infrequently polled.
The generic ballot doesn’t always tell you what you need to know. What’s the breakdown by region, for example. Obama polls MUCH better in the northeast than in the south. Is all of that GOP surge in the south? If they’re voting 70/30 GOP the generic ballot will be seriously overskewed against the entire rest of the country going 53/47 for Dems.
I trust polling by name, but not generics so much. Sometimes they’re accurate, sometimes not. This feels like one of those not so accurate years.
Shorter Herr Cole von West Virginia:
The more I look at the polling, the more I doubt it. Fladem has a diary up on dKos (no link) stressing the Undecided has remained stuck at 14% for the last month.
We’ve been battered by a barrage of RW propaganda about GOP voters being all fanatically eager to vote for the TeaBagger of their choice. So, accepting THAT, we canguess most of these 14%’ers are not going to break GOP. Meaning an incumbent Dem should get a solid slice.
That’s looking at it positively.
Looking at it with some understanding of polling, how it works, and what it means …
Nobody knows nuthing ’bout what’s gonna happen tomorrow.
The Grand Panjandrum
Shorter Cole: Be prepared for more posts from me than usual.
@change: Dude, Halloween was yesterday. Enough with the lame scary talk. And you can take that flashlight from under your chin now.
Just wait until the government shutdown and the investigations….
I actually think they will too; if the polls are correct and we’re close in these races I think we’re going to keep the house. I think it all comes down to PA, NV, IL, OH, and FL. If we pull off the senate races in the first three and the governors in the last three I’m pretty sure we’re keeping the house and each of those races are determined by turnout and extremely volatile.
I think we either lose big or win big; but if the house is turning over the senate is too and that just doesn’t look likely.
That’s my thinking. But wtf do I know?
Davis X. Machina
@Linda Featheringill: I don’t much like or dislike Reid. You don’t like Reid, I’m guessing. But do the Senators like Reid? Presuming he keeps his seat….
Schumer is pushy and coastal, Durbin is too far left in the Caucus, if not in the country. Some of Reid’s biggest detractors are probably out — Feingold, e.g.
So I can see him holding on, especially if the damage is limited to 5-6 seats. Presuming he keeps his seat….
@Martin: The big flag to me is the huge differences between the registered voters and the likely voters. In the PEW and WashPo polls put out this weekend; Dems were actually winning the registered voters polled by one point. Given the GOTV that the DEMS displayed in ’08 I think it’s a possibility that they’ll overperform and keep the house. Given the senate looks safe; that’s what’s giving me my hope. But overall, I don’t see a bloodbath. The Republicans will either take both houses or fall just short.
Those are called “polls,” you 19-percenter.
I spent last night operating a giant toothy worm to scare small children (and some teenagers.) Good times.
Two percent, people. Two fucking percent. That’s all we need to top the polls’ likely voter numbers. Two percent more than they predict for Dems. We can do that if we want.
Given that both Pitt and Penn State won this weekend, I’m saying that anything can happen if you want it enough.
@Anoniminous: Historically, undecideds break for the incumbent, which favors Dems. No guarantee that’ll hold this year.
As a general rule of thumb, polls that exclude the person’s name favor the minority party. Polls that include the person’s name favor the incumbent. Undecideds traditionally break for the incumbent.
If historical rules apply, Dems will underperform the polls in the Senate (bad news), Dems will overperform the polls in the House (since they have more incumbents than the GOP does) and those undecideds will break toward the incumbent which will favor the Dems in both chambers.
How much of an effect? Not much on named ballots – maybe 1-2 points. On the generic, it’s usually more pronounced – maybe 2-4 points. On the undecideds they usually go 75/25 for the incumbent, so large undecided races can make a big difference. That’s what Reid is banking on, and that seems to be borne out in the early voting. A LOT of people make last-minute decisions. Hell, I can’t remember an election that I wasn’t making at least local race decisions in the voting booth – and I’m not a detached voter. That’s why last minute GOTV efforts help so much.
But this election is a mess. We could get almost any outcome.
Then you agree the majority of the 14% Undecideds will break heavily for the Democratic candidate.
In which case the GOP will not win the House.
Well, we’ll know tomorrow night. That’s why they
play the gameshave the actual elections.
Undecideds always break for the challengers…it will probably mean 70+ GOP gains in the House and a 50/50 chance of taking the Senate.
The Republicans are in the catbird’s seat…
RE: polling – Things have changed so much in the last 2 years that there’s no real baseline from which to interpret poll numbers. Lots of these polls are going to look wildly inaccurate in retrospect after the voting. And some of the numbers have been in flux for the last 2 weeks. Interpreting polls is chasing a moving target. But it’s all we have. It’s our hammer, and dammit, look at all those nails.
@Que Sera Sera:
the dude has raised 80 grand through this website for dem candidates. you showed up on his blog and whined because you didn’t like his tone.
i think you win the WATB contest dogg.
Que Sera Sera
Redshift: Isn’t a toothy worm called a snake? Either way, I am fer ’em.
All the rationalizations, all the whistling past the graveyard.
You’re following Obambi right off the cliff, lemmings.
Clever idea: blogging the Civil War 150 years out.
Too bad it didn’t start a year ago so we could see how fucking vile some of these modern day patriots are.
it wasn’t under his chin and no, he can’t really remove it right now.
@Chat Noir: Thank you, he is a darling. A kitten found abandoned in a field has a high risk of being feral, or having a serious birth defect.
We certainly lucked out with him.
@change: Government shutdown in a time of war? Traitor.
The GOP doesn’t have the stones to throw up another roadblock. The last time they pitched a hissy fit & shut down the government Clinton called them on it, they caved & looked like dicks. The optics were horrible for them.
No, they’ll probably go the ninja route and put ‘holds’ on stuff they want to kill so they can toss a wooden shoe in the works without getting busted for it.
Pardon the schizo mixed metaphors. Low blood sugar.
some other guy
Indeed. Me, ACORN, and the SEIU union thugs are just waiting for the call from our messiah Obama to pick up our truckload of illegal Mexican immigrants and go down to the polling place, past the New Black Panther intimidation squad, to our secret George Soros funded vote stealing / partial birth abortion bunker where we will cast fake ballot after fake ballot until we are able to steal this country from you Real Americans and turn it into a socialist-fascist-Marxist dictatorship, just as Saul Allinksy instructed us!
Oh, but I’ve said too much…
Que Sera Sera
Chopper: Hurrah for the defeatist attitude. Bet your a real help going into the 4th q.
I think this guy is on to something.
Obambi isn’t Clinton, and this isn’t the ’90s.
@Martin: Actually, I need to correct that – undecided voters in House races seem to break more often against the incumbent. I was recalling the effect for Presidential elections. Not sure how it goes in the Senate. I’ll keep looking into that.
So if there’s a large undecided pool, that seems to strongly disfavor Dems in the House.
Bender, your comments reflect on your character. You should hold yourself to a higher standard.
Only in Presidential campaigns. In Congressionals, we expect the opposite, or at least a split along the lines of the current polls.
If you find anyone crazy enough to take the bet that the Donks hold the House, please let me know.
@Que Sera Sera:
lol. i’m not a defeatist. i just think you’re a moron. and also that cole and the other FPers who raised a buncha money and canvassed and phone banked for candidates have the right to bitch about the election on their own blog. but i’m sure you’ve raised a lot more than they did and surely did far more work to get people elected, right? right?
also, the president is blackity-black, which i’m sure drives you bonkers.
Here’s the bag of dicks you ordered, sir
Enjoy your lunch
My comments certainly reflect a higher standard than those (who shall remain nameless… “wonkie”) who state plainly that over half of the electorate must be mentally ill. That’s a repugnant statement, worthy only of disdain.
Now mind your monocle doesn’t fall into your champagne glass, dear.
I’ll forthrightly say: I have no clue what is going to happen tomorrow.
With pollsters unable or unwilling to adequately poll the under 30 cell phone only crowd, a demographic that broke IIRC 2:1 Dem in 2008, the polls may be touting a “Dewey Beats Truman” or, worse, a “Landon in a Landslide” prediction. A poll that does not meet the ‘Equal Probability’ requirement is skewed; at a minimum this failure increases the Margin of Error; at maximum the poll is hogwash.
Without reliable polling all we can do is use historical data which has, as you have already pointed-out, predictive problems of its own.
I missed it when I first read this post, but it appears Mr. Cole will attempt to blog from his secure undisclosed location in the SF Bay.
I hope some one explains to him, that in order to honor the area’s literary heritage, all of his posts should be damned lies, wild exaggerations, tall tales, and desperate cover stories.
Hallucinations should be reported accurately, however, since the local hallucinations are all public knowledge around here and he will be found out. Even the apparently abandoned wrecks lost in overgrowth.
It’s okay. Passing the Obama-Baucus-Blue Cross-Wellpoint health insurance bill inoculated the Dems from a 1994-style disaster at the polls this year. Or so I was repeatedly told back when it was being debated.
@Chyron HR: Actually Palin and Tancredo will be appointed POTUS & VP by the Supreme Court, because they can.
I find it extremely hard to believe that the difference between registered and likely voters is as stark as the polls keep saying it is. I’ve been skeptical about that for months. But I guess we’ll see.
@NR: But at least the bloodbath will no longer be considered a “pre-existing condition”!
ETA: Spending more than a solid year of hashing out a health care bill that _didn’t_ pass would certainly be _worse_, don’t you think?
How Cute! Balloon Juice has a new troll!
I wonder what the Democrats’ chances would look like now if the administration and the Democratic leadership in Congress had simply and single-mindedly (Or vice-versa) done every possible thing that they could to lower the unemployment rate.
I know; stimulus bill, HCR, finreg. Just guessing that that’s so much blah-blah-blah to someone who’s been out of work for two years or more. Maybe putting out the fire before you begin to fix the foundation would have worked out a bit better.
The Dems are going to lose control of the House, lose enough seats in the Senate that they will be guaranteed to lose control of that chamber in 2012 (when they have to defend twice as many seats as the Republicans), and are going to take a beating at the state level, which will give the Republicans control of redistricting. And on top of all that, it looks like Obama is going to respond to the election results by moving even further to the right and doubling down on bipartisanship, thereby guaranteeing that he will lose to a teabagger in 2012.
I really fail to see how things could be any worse than they are right now.
@j low: I wonder how long this little crackhead will last.
@Dennis SGMM: Why does Obama have a deficit commission and not a jobs commission?
Answering this question will tell you a lot about this administration.
A huge swath of _Democrats_ don’t believe in the idea that the government can do much to fix unemployment other than provide tax breaks to companies that invest or hire. We can’t underestimate the depth of their aversion to Big Spending. They just don’t have any interest in doing what you would like them to do, and they believe in it very stubbornly and strongly.
What Bender has demonstrated is the insanity of which we were discussing on E.D’s post: people who believe things which are demonstrably false and who refuse to accept facts they don’t like. Bender asserted a falsehood about Gregoire, one of those Faux Noise ‘We Lie-You Believe” falsehoods that make up the alternative reality of the psychosis which calls itself conservatism. It reflects badly on Bender’s character that he is willfully and self-indulgently committed to believing what he wants to believe rather than having the integrity to reason from facts.
BTW this is what Bender didn’t do: he didn’t display any knowledge of Murray’s record or any knowledge of Rossi’s positions or history. It might be possible to put put together a fact-based case for voting for Rossi over Murray but Bender didn’t do it.
Nope. He just told a lie.
What’s with the pie craze sweeping through the comments threads?
I went to DailyKos and they are featuring a poll by Gallup that claims the Dems will be beaten to a pulp.
Signed, Dazed and confused.
@Que Sera Sera: Well, the haunt was loosely based on “The Conqueror Worm,” because we do Poe every year, but a worm with teeth is a lot scarier than one without. And I figure if worm teeth are good enough for Frank Herbert and Dune, they’re good enough for us.
(FWIW, the result was more like a remora, or a sandworm, than a snake.)
@NR: If the choice is between a disastrous election with no health care bill and a disastrous election with a health care bill, I’m taking the latter. I know you don’t see it that way as a matter of policy.
A nationwide bolo for Chicken Little could be worse.
Think about it.
Since people seem to be voting Democrat if their #1 concern is the “economy” by almost 20 points, but voting Republican by almost 80 points if their #1 concern is “size and power of the federal government,”
combined with the fact that demographics with high unemployment seem to be voting Democratic, while demographics with low unemployment are uber-Republican, I’m going to go with…the same
@Linda Featheringill: Every once in a while Markos likes to get out in the forefront of the Toldja So Brigade. He kind of likes to think of himself as the “service your liberal base” guy, so he wants to be good and ready to throw down that guantlet.
Because we don’t need a commission for something we’ve already wrote legislation to attempt to fix
@Linda Featheringill: Also features a recommended diary titled “Kos- DELETE your Gallup Front Pager! (with Poll)”.
@FlipYrWhig: I don’t want to rehash the policy debate. I’m just pointing out that the people who said that passing that health insurance bill would prevent an electoral disaster for the Dems were 100% wrong about that.
In time, they will be proven wrong about the other things they said about the bill, too.
Those Gallup likely voter poll scenarios were constructed with strings and ceiling wax and other fancy stuff. I wouldn’t worry about those. Most likely voter polls have wingers up 5 or 6 points, but GOTV operations can blunt that. Dems are going to lose a lot of seats, and likely the House, but not the senate. Which is bad enough, but not catastrophic
It’s easy to grasp that large swaths of voters hold irrational beliefs. It’s a bit harder for me not to think that both the administration and the leadership were dumb as hell about this one. Mid terms are typically bad for the party in power and to head into this one while doing nothing effective to ameliorate a major source of fear, anger, and resentment (All of which are bread and butter to the GOP) is just catastrophically stupid.
Here’s the thing, to bring unemployment down to a reasonable level would require up to $5 trillion, that’s six stimulus bills, which would have to be paid for by both massive tax hikes and at least doubling, if not tripling, the deficit, which, even if it was possible that get that passed in Congress without any public outcry, would completely destroy HCR, FinReg, Cap and Trade and every other piece of the Democratic agenda.
@change: Yes, because those things worked so well for you people the last times you tried them.
Go for it.
@NR: I don’t remember anyone saying that passing a health care bill would prevent an electoral disaster, full stop. I sort of remember it being said that _failing_ to pass a health care bill would _produce_ an electoral disaster, but that’s not entirely the same thing.
Good. Some of us never said it would avoid an electoral disaster. Some of us said we’d have one either way and we’d be better off going into a bloodbath with at least some accomplish to tout to the base.
@NR: I don’t quite remember this line occurring too commonly, though it may be because I didn’t follow the blog debates with thorough scrutiny.
Que Sera Sera
Gen’l Stuck: It’s sealing wax, but other than that I think you have the size of it. Dems are gonna lose seats, but it’s nothing to slit one’s wrists over.
Sun will rise.
Unemployment isn’t why they’re afraid, angry and resentful. The tea partiers are from demographics with low unemployment. They’re afraid, angry and resentful because people from Glenn Beck to their preacher are telling them to be. Even with low unemployment, that would still be the case. A bad economy makes it easier to sell, but the main thing you hear from the tea party is “Obama/Democrats want to bring socialism to America.” The fact that unemployment can only be addressed through avenues of socialism mean there’s literally no way it could have blunted the tea party.
Sports: As I’ve said before, if you wanna learn true pain and humiliation, come be a sports fan in Seattle. The once-reliable Washington Huskies football team has fallen to pieces, and the NBA team got spirited away to Oklahoma City.
Politics: Put me in the “won’t be as bad as predicted” catagory. Although nothing’s going to get done for the next two years.
Zombies: I liked the The Walking Dead, but I’m not the most demanding of TV viewers.
@Dennis SGMM: My Grand Unified Theory is that the conservative Democrats have tied everyone else’s hands. Their intransigence is enough to make “the Democrats” and “the administration” look feckless, but it’s unfortunately the best we can get from all parties concerned.
In other words, even if all the experts said that the only thing that could turn the economy around was a massive infusion of capital, and the president and two-thirds of the Democrats in the House and Senate agreed, that other third would still balk and throw tantrums and prevent the smart course of action from occurring. Because, to them, it’s just an article of faith that Spending To Help People is bad, or, like, cheating, or something. Given that, what can you do? It’s frustrating, and it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but to me it has the ring of truth.
I think you’ve summed things up pretty well, Flipyrwig.
As in providing assistance to or as in animal breeding?
Ah c’mon. Do you think that there is a room somewhere that Obama can go to and just turn the knob to get some jobs?
Some of these jobs are not coming back or will have to be made up in a growing economy over time.
Also, how much of this do you think is a lack of good faith by the private sector? Seems they could be hiring if they wanted, but are limping a long (like my company) on restricted staffing unnecessarily. We have plenty of new clients. Could this be intended to make sure that the Dems and Obama are punished a bit right in time for the election?
I have to think so…
I took a vow in 2000 to no longer watch cable news and news shows. Except for 9/11 and a handful — handful — of times surrounding elections and the State of the Union, I have kept that promise. I’ll bet I haven’t watched a total of more than about 10 hours of cable news in the last 10 years. It helps keep the sanity.
After tomorrow, I am likely going to have to have a three-month hermit mode. No news, no internet. Novels and non-news websites only.
I am definitely in need of a recharging period, a break. Time to go Yoda for a while, because the next two years are going to be a fucking goat rodeo.
@Linda Featheringill: I’m not putting my hand up _there_. :P
Back in late summer, a few CEOs admitted as much as CNBC in front of the cameras. Said they were concerned about “regulations” and “Obama’s anti-business agenda” and pointed to how he treated BP, not allowing them to “act in the good faith they would’ve acted in”
I tried to sound the alarm, but I got mocked by certain posters who have mysteriously disappeared recently.
No question that John has done incredible things for Dems and countered the Naderism and defeatism here.
All the more reason to carry that through to the end. With so many close races, another handful of GOTV could make a difference.
While I will cop to being stupid and to being naively optimistic I won’t cop to being that stupid. Obama could have proposed initiatives and then he could have beaten on Congress like it was drum. He could have asked some really smart, savvy, experienced, people what it would take to get job creation rolling and pushed their best ideas.
How is this supposed to work? They couldn’t even do it with tax cuts for the middle class and not the wealthiest: the conservative Democrats balked. If it’s now possible to filibuster a fund to compensate 9/11 first responders, and get penalized not one whit for doing so, I really don’t think “beating on Congress like it was a drum” can accomplish anything.
But Dennis, if what I conjecture is true, that there is truly the capacity for the private sector to hire, but they aren’t, what would “asking experts” do? If these companies aren’t hiring and aren’t doing so intentionally, asking the experts wouldnt do much. Also, you KNOW he didnt ask any experts. How do you KNOW that? Got his calendar?
There are a lot of strange posters that come and go around here….
I gotta think that there is more than a little bit of that going on,,, as well as the banks not lending to small businesses..
@Dennis SGMM: The best idea was “infrastructure.” Bottled up. Small business loans. Bottled up. They’ve drawn up all kinds of things. The Republicans just close ranks. He calls out their obstruction and intransigence and they just shrug, as does the media. It doesn’t work.
This is what I’m getting at: rallying the public to push their wavering Democratic Congresspeople only _just barely_ still can work, on occasion; and rallying the public to push their Republican Congresspeople _never works_. Republicans have decided they just don’t care about being shamed or pressured, and they’ll just hold firm because, hey, what’s the worst that could happen? I don’t think that “public pressure” actually moves politics or policy leftwards, not even minimally, anymore. And without that, we’re fucked, because no one has any other idea how to get politicians to do what the people who sent them want them to do.
2.5 hours since the last JC post. Could he really mean it?
On a slightly lighter note, Randy Moss has been booted by the Vikings. How they will miss his merry ways, his genial press conferences, his love of the team.
Wonder how many teams are pointing at Minnesota and rolling on the carpet in fits of helpless laughter today.
Also too, bets on the Cowboys putting in a claim for him on the waiver wire? Although the Bills might just get there first.
This. I really don’t understand all the hate for Obama and the Democrats. It’s not that I think they’re perfect, or that they couldn’t have done more–Reid in particularly has been so spineless most of the time that it’s painful to watch. I would’ve liked to have seen Obama use the bully pulpit more than he has, although I’m under no illusions about how little leverage that actually gives him over people who are working in bad faith.
And that’s really what lies at the core of this problem: that 100% of the Congressional Republicans and a handful of bad Democrats are very blatantly, transparently operating in total bad faith. Even the so-called moderate Republicans have got this Lucy-and-the-football thing down to a science.
But for fuck’s sake, when a situation goes completely to shit, what makes more sense: blaming the people who didn’t do everything they could to stop it, or blaming the people who created the problem in the first place?
Christ, it’s like getting into an accident with a drunk who ran a red light while speeding, and blaming the city for the accident because they made the speed limit on that road too high and didn’t spend enough money on anti-drunk-driving programs. Blame isn’t zero-sum, but for fuck’s sake people, show some perspective and ability to distinguish between not good enough and batshit fucking insane.
@morzer: My money’s on the Bengals.
Carson Palmer will commit suicide right on the spot.
@Elie: In Dennis’s defense, he didn’t say that Obama didn’t ask, he said that Obama didn’t ask-and-then-push. Like you, though, I imagine Obama hearing all the responsible economists telling him that they need to do a lot more to help the economy, but then looking around and realizing that there’s no way to make their “best ideas” happen because of what scaredy-cats he has in his party.
I mean, in school we all do group projects. Let’s say I get put in a group to do a science project, and I love geodes, and I have a geode I can bring in, and books I can get cool pictures from. So I’m really gung ho about geodes, and I’m willing to do a lot of the work. But there are three other people in the group, and two of them don’t really care about geodes, and one actively thinks they’re, like, gay, or something, and he wants to build a volcano that uses baking soda and vinegar, like everyone always does. I think that’s not creative or original; maybe I can persuade one of the people who doesn’t care, so I try, and by the time he agrees, we’ve lost a lot of time, and we have to go to the library and find stuff, and the one guy just won’t budge, and the fourth guy doesn’t care at all. My great idea isn’t going to happen, not because it’s not a great idea, but because someone in my group decided to be a dick, and the rest of them didn’t care very much to begin with. So we’re building the stupid volcano. We can either complain about that, or we can try to make it as good as we can, given the circumstances–the illogical, irrational, inexplicable circumstances.
While I agree with you from the persecptive of the Congressional input on this situation, my point above relates to decisions freely in control of the private sector. Their hiring decisions are up to them as are lending practices from banks. Obama and this administration got no help from them either, and purposely for the same reason. Net effect is punishing the people to make sure that the rich stay rich and the already powerful give up nothing. There is no way to coerce these people — this has to be played out. Unfortunately, (and I hope that I am wrong), the American electorate aint always too bright.
man, you’re like a jewish mother.
Hope we can cheer up a bit around here. Reading the thread comments this morning had me reaching for the razor blades. It hurts when you care. :(
I’d like to wait and see if all this horrible shit really does happen before we all drink the Jones koolaid.
(And there are LOTS of other countries!)
@Nick: I don’t think it’s only an excuse to attack the administration; that’s a side benefit from the CEOs’ point of view. Lack of demand, due to high unemployment and under-employment, is what’s stalling hiring. But why note the real reason when you can bash the administration and maybe convince them to lighten up on the regulations and toss a few more tax goodies your way?
But would anyone notice?
On Obama and unemployment:
I suspect that the real cause of economic malaise is that the world capitalist system has been over exploited and many, many people can no longer purchase things they would like or even need. One country cannot fix that problem, no matter what it does.
I also note that many countries have experienced rioting because their individual economies are so bad. The US can’t fix that no matter what this one nation does.
The problem is world wide.
Could Obama have done more? Maybe. Would it have been enough? No.
Some good news:
I called my local Democratic office to find out how long they’re working tonight, since I can’t get there until late. The guy on the phone told me that of course it would be great if I could make it, but not to beat myself up if I can’t because they’ve had a great volunteer response and are already almost through all their canvassing packets. I’m thinking about doing lit drops tomorrow before work instead.
When I canvassed on Saturday, at least half of the people I talked to were very firmly committed to vote. Some of them were really fired up. The local situation, at least, looks good GOTV-wise. Here’s hoping that’s true, and that other areas are the same way.
Suck It Up!
Watch it. Watch it.
We can’t create jobs because no one is buying anything since there aren’t any jobs.
The thing is, I don’t think there really is a real lack of demand, at least not to the extent that it wouldn’t spur some hiring. A lot of companies are working their employees to the breaking point to avoid hiring anymore.
I truly believe that after the GOP takes Congress tomorrow, you’l see a huge spike in hiring through the winter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a million or more jobs created by March.
I would bet money on it, which, I guess, is good for the country, but bad for policies that we really need to be enacting.
@TooManyJens: What state are you in? Thanks for the positive report!
@Nick: Why the adding of all the new jobs?
I don’t fully understand your argument. You are saying that there is low demand and that is true for some sectors such as retail, real estate, etc. But other sectors (health care, information services, etc.) are not doing all that badly and in fact are doing pretty well. It averages out pretty badly on the whole, but there are sectors that are artificially suppressing hiring or squeezing salaries, which makes it all the worse.
because, like I said, they’re working their current workforce to near breaking point and it’ll give the GOP congress something to tout. “Unemployment was high until WE took power and gave people tax cuts”
@Nick: No, what I don’t get is why that tendency to work workers to the bone would be reversed whether or not businesses got tax cuts. And how this would cause aggregate demand to increase.
@SIA: I’m in downstate Illinois.
@El Cid: It won’t. Business need to hire now, and some are, which is why we’re seeing private sector job growth. I’m being told that the expectation is over 100,000 jobs will be created in October, highest since the Spring.
But for many, especially those intertwined with the Chamber of Commerce, the plan is to make do with the current workforce until after the election, then unleash the wave of jobs, so the Democratic agenda is dead. Its not about them wanting tax cuts, they don’t need them, it’s about them wanting EFCA, Cap and Trade, and a public option OFF THE TABLE for another generation.
They’re blackmailing the country.
It assumes that they win convincingly to tie to the conclusion that you cite. Not sure its going to be that clean for them.
Strange times. We’ll see. Think of the people willing to have people suffer to make a point or to maintain their sense of power…
@Elie: Well the assumption is that they will win convincingly.
If they don’t, then they either have to bite the bullet and hire or try to ride it out for another two years with the workforce they have, which I doubt they can.
All the more reason why winning tomorrow is important.
Count me among those few who believe we may actually keep the house and the senate.
I believe we can still impact the outcome of this election, so off I go to make some calls for OFA. See you after it’s too late to make any more calls.
There will be plenty of time to despair tomorrow if I’m wrong, and a lot of time to celebrate if we can pull this off. If we give up before the voting even starts, the terrorists win.
Water Girl – oh and others.
Yeah – I’ve been like am I the only one who isn’t up in arms about some big-ass loss. I just don’t see it.
The only thing I do know is I have NEVER been called for polling and I still have a land line. I’ve never had jury duty either – anywhere I’ve lived ….. EVER. Calling 1000 people out of ??? million across the U.S. just isn’t my idea of reality.