Also, a cheering possibility via Mark Warren at Esquire, concerning Nevada:
Here’s why all those polls — and all the Washington pundits and “reporters” who are just now putting the finishing touches on their Harry Reid obituaries — are probably wrong.
First, the early vote results show that strictly on party registration, Democrats actually have a 9,000-vote lead from votes already cast… This is a surprising number, given that this is the nationalized race of what is supposed to be a wave election, and it indicates that Reid may have stopped the bleeding several weeks ago, enough to shore up his base and get out his vote. And the Reid campaign believes — given that Angle is so far outside the mainstream of even conservative Republican politics, and given the sizeable Republicans for Reid operation in the state — that Senator Reid will pick up more disaffected Republican votes than Angle will pick up disaffected Democratic votes.
Second, counter to all of the public polls, the internal Reid numbers for the past three weeks show that Reid has actually had a lead ranging from 4 to 8 points (and last week, the National Republican Senate Campaign Committee had a similar internal poll showing Reid six points up). The campaign’s rolling-track numbers from last Friday also showed Senator Reid with a six-point lead.
Why are these numbers so different from Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, et al? Well, first and foremost, Nevada is unlike any other state, in that it has a comparatively transient population, with lots of newcomers, and a sizeable percentage of that population works in the gaming industry — the casinos. Traditional polling firms don’t call during the day, and so you miss most of those people, who work in significant numbers at night. And if there was ever a population that communicated with the world exclusively via cell phones as opposed to landlines, this is it. (The Reid campaign has polled cell-phone users aggressively.) The research shows that when you go strictly by the people who you reach on the first try, Reid is 2 points down. But in the subset of people who you reach on the second or third try, Reid leads by 11 points.