According to the Great Orange Satan, here is the tax cut deal:
According to reports from ABC’s Jake Tapper, New York Times and CNN, the package would extend Bush tax policy for two years, replace the tax credits in the Obama stimulus package with a payroll tax holiday, extend unemployment insurance for thirteen months, extend the estate tax at 35% for two years, and extend $40 billion in tax credits to the working poor.
As much as I hate to say it, if they can get 13 months of unemployment benefits, I’d take it. I figgered the most they would get would be six months. Thirteen months might save a lot of families. As bad a policy as I think the tax cuts for the rich are, thirteen months of keeping people from the brink of disaster is a mighty good sweetener.
D-Day, whose analysis I always trust, says that it is a horrible deal. says the Estate Tax portion is a horrible deal. I misread him initially. Sorry.
I just hate the fact that what we might have to do to keep the poorest of the poor afloat is toss out tons of cash to the already rich. God, I hate Republicans.
AhabTRuler
I think we’re getting rolled. Hard.
Nick
there are a lot of Democrats who would’ve been happy to vote for middle class cuts only, but the people didn’t vote for them last month.
BGinCHI
So, rich people will use the money they already have now, which isn’t doing anything to ameliorate the unemployment numbers, to hire people to do something wealth-creating for themselves. Right?
This will save the economy?
They got rich by hiring Americans?
What am I missing?
Ross Hershberger
The Dems used to have a working relationship with the GOP. Now it’s more like a hostage situation.
Suck It Up!
I had contacted Schumer to ask that a tier 5 be included in the deal. He wrote back that once he gets a deal for the others, he’ll work on getting a tier 5. I wrote him back and told him to basically stop bullshitting me. ‘If you ain’t gettin’ it now, you ain’t gonna get it later.’
jwb
It may well still be a terrible deal, but it’s actually much better than I figured. Here comes an 800 comment thread.
AhabTRuler
@BGinCHI: You are making a policy argument, but the time for actual policy arguments was six months ago. Now it’s just down to negotiating, and Demz dont haz it.
Nick
@BGinCHI:
well, that is how capitalism is supposed to work
John O
Jeebus, John, that’s a horseshit deal. Just on the timelines alone.
The rich get two years, the unemployed get 1+. C’mon. I like Obama, too, a lot, personally, but he’s a political girlie man.
I realize this is probably the best he could get, which is why they’re high-fiving in the WH, but it’s weak cheese to me.
Marc McKenzie
@Nick: Sad but true.
This is a hard, harsh thing to face (if this info is true) but…look, we’re out of options–plain and simple. No amount of wishing and sprinkling fairy dust would have helped, except, say, more Dems winning in the election.
@John: Count me in as one who hates them as well. And I’m more than content to keep firing at them–I’m rather tired of the circular firing squad most of us love to engage in.
Jay in Oregon
And the best part is, the unemployment extension runs out well before the tax cuts are set to expire again, which means the GOP gets another chance to wring more concessions out of the Democrats and hardly anyone will remember when it comes time to renew those tax cuts at election time.
MBunge
Maybe if the Congressional Dems hadn’t punted on the tax issue before the midterms, we might have been able to get a much better deal. As it is, Obama certainly could have vetoed any extension of the tax cuts…but that almost certainly would have also meant no more unemployment insurance extensions.
Mike
dr. bloor
The details in D-Days post that weren’t in the Kos post are horrendous. They’re going to drive the economy off a cliff for the sake of 13 months of UI, and then they’re going to be kicked in the balls repeatedly next year and the year after that going over the same issues. This isn’t a deal, it’s a cyanide pill.
kdaug
As I understand it (and I may well be wrong), the “extension” for 13 months is an agreement to continue federal funding of the existing Tiers 1-4.
There’s nothing for those 99’rs who’ve run out of benefits. IOW, no new Tier adding additional benefits, just an agreement to fund the existing formula.
If I’m right, and you’ve collecting benefits for 99 weeks, you’re shit out of luck.
burnspbesq
I’m one of the fortunate few who could easily absorb a tax increase that I think makes sense for the country. If extending dumbfuck tax cuts is the price that needs to be paid to get a 13- month extension of unemployment benefits, ok. I’ll give the $ I don’t think I should have to charity.
alwhite
HEY! Batshit Bachmann says “no way!”
From the Republican prospective this is a gutsie move. Come January they can pass any load of shit they want & then dare Obama to veto it. His choice would be to accept it of be labeled as raising taxes in a recession AND the largest tax hike in history (a favorite charge the Rs bring out all the time when that honor still goes to St. Ronnie and the Social Security rape act)
HyperIon
@Jay in Oregon wrote :
my exact thoughts!
FoxinSocks
My issue is that we shouldn’t have to be debating extending unemployment benefits at all. They should be a given with the economy being as bad as it is and if the GOP opposes them, Obama should give them hell. But because the Republicans are trying to tank the economy and just don’t care, all of the sudden, getting something so basic as these benefits is seen as a major victory. Same with START and the debt ceiling.
Or to paraphrase Chris Rock, “You’re SUPPOSED to be extending unemployment benefits. What do you want, a cookie?”
Maude
@Ross Hershberger:
The 13 month UI extension takes away the ability of the Repubs to threaten the unemployed.
Also the working people aren’t getting a tax hike.
It wasn’t me that messed the rug.
gypsy howell
Fuck him. Really. Sideways.
BombIranForChrist
Aside from the obvious fact that Obama should have dared the Republicans to cancel unemployment and all tax cuts permanently, it will be really interesting to see how the Teabaggers respond to this. I am 90% convinced that they will toe the GOP party line, because that is basically what they are, but I do have a 10% sliver of doubt. They may just be crazy enough to actually believe what they believe … no spending evar.
The Grand Panjandrum
Don’t forget this bill has to go back to the House for a vote. It may not pass. What have they got to lose? About 63 of them have nothing to lose. Let’s see what happens in the end. This reminds me of the HCR endgame. But this time we have a real deadline and if the House doesn’t go along before the new Congress is seated then it has to start from scratch.
mellowjohn
N-fucking-O!
J.W. Hamner
I don’t think it’s a terrible deal, but it’s not a good one. If this succeeds in clearing the calendar and START, DADT, etc also get done… then it’s probably worth it. Otherwise, I’m not so sure…
Ross Hershberger
Remind me again why the party that controls the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate is accepting terms dictated by the minority. I’m sure this has been explained before but I just can’t seem to comprehend it.
BGinCHI
@Nick: Afraid wealth creation and employing people here are headed in different directions.
None of what is happening in these negotiations is getting near the root of the problem. If you have to fight this hard for UE extensions (which I agree with), then you are a damn sight from job creation.
I need a drink.
jcricket
Is there a serious discussion as to what the eventual end-game is here?
For example: We all know that DADT will be repealed eventually. It’s probably inevitable that gay marriage will be legalized. History’s slide towards tolerance will not move backwards.
But with taxes and economic policy, I’m not so sure. Are we going to make massive cuts to Social Security and Medicare? Will we simply let all our infrastructure crumble rather than raise taxes?
Or will we try and cut defense spending and eventually face massive tax increases? And if so, on whom? Can’t be the poor and the middle class – they don’t have the money.
Your only eventual choices are:
1) Large increases in taxes on the rich and corporations, something like Medicare for all (having non-sick/old people on Medicare would improve its finances) and payment reform (i.e. paying doctors less) – coupled with payroll tax increases on the wealthy to keep SS stable.
2) Kill off Medicare, Medicaid, probably Social Security too – and replace them with nothing (i.e. let people die instead of treating them in the ER or giving them housing vouchers).
Do we really think #2 is the likely outcome here?
The Dangerman
Didn’t read about it in detail, but it appears to focus on Estate Taxes. BFD; I don’t care about Estate Taxes. For a temporary break on those individual taxes, we will have the benefit of at least one more individual going to meet His Maker (if you believe in that kinda thing).
As long as the Republicans are willing to blow shit up, which can only help them in 2012, this sounds like the best that can be done. Sucks shit, but … I’d prefer not seeing shit blown up just to make a point.
August J. Pollak
The deal is shit because it even remotely extends tax cuts for the rich, which just facilitates the push to make them permanent and bankrupt most of the goddamn country.
But beyond that, it really teeters on what it means for the rest of the session.
If they pass this deal and get the DREAM act and/or DADT repeal out of the way, then it will end up having been a good negotiation. If they pass this and then the Republicans find another way to hissy fit and Reid goes “oh well, sucks to be you America!” and sends everyone home, then it’s a disaster.
Nick
@Ross Hershberger:
because the minority is also accepting terms dictated by the majority.
suzanne
@John O:
Your gratuitous sexism makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Really.
I will generously assume that you meant to say that President Obama is not a cunning negotiator. If that was indeed what you meant, I concur. This deal is for cudlips. Or something.
dday
I did not say that, John. I said the estate tax part of it is a horrible deal. I didn’t know about the payroll tax part at the time I posted.
jcricket
@J.W. Hamner: I agree with this – I wish it came with other conditions – passing START, repealing DADT.
Democrats are bad negotiators, frankly. We let the other side run the negotiation until it’s too late.
I know we’ll never get all I want, and with the nihilists on the other side, less than we even really “deserve” – but that’s the game we’re playing right now. We need to learn how to play or stay the fuck home.
Ranger 3
It’s a good deal, but the Nader wing of the party will freak out because it’s what they always do.
I, too, hate Republicans. But the Naderites are the ones who got us in this mess in the first place. Because Al Gore was a corporate sellout. Remember that one? I haven’t forgotten.
But it’s cool cause some creepy hacker is going to restore balance to the force. Whatever.
matoko_chan
i think its the best deal O could get.
btw, in 13 months Wikileaks will have 144480 mirror servers.
Lolis
Ezra thinks it was a better deal than he thought they would get a week ago. There is actually some good news about the UI extension, it includes people who have been unemployed a long time. Rumor had it that it wasn’t going to help those people. I feel for the unemployed. I am not sure I can stomach letting these sociopaths get their tax cuts for the rich. But, hey, the Republicans sure are good at acts of terrorism.
FlipYrWhig
I said in the other thread that if Democrats in the House and Senate don’t like it, they can come up with something better. If they do, great, let’s do that. But I don’t want to hear 10 random Democrats complaining about what the president wants if they don’t have an alternative they like better _and_ can get broad buy-in. Because that’s what always happens, Democrats who don’t like Policy X running to the media to complain about Policy X rather than coming up with Policy Y instead.
Baud
@FoxinSocks:
“Should” doesn’t put food on anyone’s table.
Keith G
Now: a lot of families will get some help.
Some time in the future: when the bills come due many more of our poor will be “cut loose”.
We suck.
Peter J
The parents should dare the kid to throw shit on the wall?
The police should dare the suicide bomber to trigger the explosives?
What should have been done was to hold the vote BEFORE the election.
The Dangerman
@Ross Hershberger:
Unless you have 60 in the Senate, you don’t control the Senate. Sucks, but that’s the way it is.
Ross Hershberger
@Nick:
I see that the Dems got something in the deal, but the GOP got a whole lot more. Theoretically the Dems have a stronger bargaining position but all they got that they wanted is something that the GOP can also take credit for and therefore is also to their political benefit.
jcricket
@dday: The estate tax part isn’t terrible – it’s at 35% – not 0% (the current level). I’d actually be fine, long-term with estate tax being charged at whatever the level of income tax there’d be for that level of income (with some small exemption for the first $1m or whatever).
The payroll tax holiday may be good, but I bet it leads to further arguments for getting rid of SS and Medicare, since they’re funded by those payroll taxes.
Really, as this chart makes clear, our current situation is all about the erosion of corporate taxes and income taxes. And since the median income isn’t going up, I’d say the deep cuts in income tax levels for the rich are really what’s causing the problem there.
The recession just makes it worse (for gov’t revenues).
Hell, as Texas’ budget deficit ($18 billion, same as California) proves – even having low services isn’t enough to save you when the big recession hits. I shudder to think at how this country will extricate itself from this mess with our current “no tax is a good tax” mentality. 2nd lost decade, here we come.
Ranger 3
@suzanne: Of the various factions of the left I am not fond of, feminists may well be the worst. The anti-military folks are up there, but I think the man haters edge them out by a nose.
Love the deal! Unemployment extension!!!! Woot!! Suck it hippies Obama rocks!!!!
Martin
Not bad, actually. The payroll tax holiday is among the most stimulative things they could do. 13 months unemployment is better than I thought they’d get.
Estate tax will help pay for some of this, and it’ll save quite a bit of money for people under the cap. The $5M cap sucks ass, but there’s not a lot of revenue to be made between $1M and $5M and shitloads to be made over $5M. Saying that 35% is a bad deal could go either way. Yes, its lower than under Bush, but it’s still quite a bit higher than the 28% short-term cap gains and vastly higher than the 15% that almost everyone is paying now. I don’t think a particularly strong case can be made for a higher rate other than ‘fuck the rich and the GOP’, which appears to be the case being made.
But I like the 2 year full extension over the permanent middle class one, to be completely honest. It’s probably not the best politically, but it’s better policy-wise. The only way to get the deficit back in line is to repeal all of the tax cuts – including the middle class ones. Better to invest now to get unemployment down, and then make everyone pay up later. Clearly the GOP is gambling that the tax hike will hurt Obama in 2012 (though that fight will happen after the election) and Obama is gambling that with lower unemployment, he can go full-bore deficit reduction and use the tax hikes somewhat to his advantage.
It’s risky, but it’s not bad. IMO, he got more and gave less than was being reported up to this moment.
freelancer
@Ranger 3:
Now you gone and stepped in it.
You’re in a world of shit now, son.
Nick
@Ross Hershberger:
actually if DADT, DREAM Act and START all pass, the Ds would have gotten a whole lot more.
jcricket
BTW – I predict this deal leads to precisely 0 Republicans giving any Democrats credit for the deal, 0 Republicans saying that Democrats cut taxes, 0 votes from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the next election, and probably does nothing to convince a demoralized Democratic base to come out and vote for Democrats.
RinaX
Eh, it doesn’t sound completely horrible to me. I’d actually like to see what would actually happen if the tax cuts just expired, and that just may happen if this doesn’t get pass the House. Then again, I’ve been fortunate enough to maintain my job all this time, and know a number of people depending on these benefits who are desperate right now. That, more than any O-bot status is what has me genuinely uncertain as to what the right call is.
I also would want to pass DADT, DREAM, and START before this came to a vote. Hopefully the Dems in Congress would at least hold out for that before agreeing to any negotiation.
Hugh
@Nick:
Those people are still in office!
Suck It Up!
@Lolis:
what people? tier 5? because that is desperately needed.
Ross Hershberger
@The Dangerman:
That’s the part I keep forgetting (/snark)
The dog in the manger factor. Playing spoiler out of spite.
LarsThorwald
I would like to know exactly what the fuck Obama got me for freezing my fucking wages for the next two years. An extension of tax cuts for the rich as my wages are frozen? A goddmaned blow-job to the wealthy with regard to the estate tax? Really?
I used to be this close to saying “Fuck you, Obama,” but then I thought, well, there’s no way he’ll fuck over federal employees without getting something in return.
Well, he didn’t. Fuck you, Obama. I worked for you in four states. Never again. I gave you the maximum amount possible. Fuck you, you’ll get nothing next time. Oh, yeah, you’ll get my vote, because I’ll never vote Republican again, but not with anything like the enthusiasm I brought to the effort in 2008.
Democrats are positively pussy. Just absolute fucking idiots. Big hearted lunks, some of them, Republican lite, others, and everything in between, but to a one, and for their own reasons, fucking idiot pussies who can’t stand up for a goddamned principle. Who is standing up for this? It’s rigged.
I honestly don’t have any idea of what the Democratic Party stands for anymore other than to be Eisenhower Republicans, or George H.W. Bush Republicans. Fuck that.
And before you Greenies start wooing me, fuck you, too, you’re weirdo fringists.
Holy shit. Where’s the Tylenol?
zattarra
If this is the price we need to pay to get the uninsured a lifeline and keep a lot of working families above water I’m OK with it. I know too many “middle class” people who are just barely making it right now. Letting the GOP let those tax rates change right now and it would just crush them. All this fight, hold out for more shit is fine if you are negotiating with a side that does not care if the hostage dies or the house burns down. But if the President holds out and nothing passes before Dec 31st you know what this get’s reported as “Obama let’s taxes go up for the middle class.” Plus the usual suspects will be out complaining that DADT wasn’t repealed and oh yeah, the unemployed would still be f-cked.
The left needs to decide where their principles lay – is it with winning, beating Republicans and screwing the fat cats or is it with helping people. If the Progressive movement has decided it is all about winning and republicans losing I’ll go right back to just calling myself a liberal and caring about people and not politics.
geg6
This sucks donkey dicks. Unfuckingbelievable.
Something has to happen. The sheep citizenry needs radicalized and the only ones who can seem to manage that are batshit crazy people. The vast majority of people just are clueless. They need a leader and it’s obvious that they can’t look to politicians for leadership. We used to have people like Frederick Douglas or MLK who rose to lead where politicians trembled to tread. Is America so far gone that at a time of crisis, the radicals claiming the voice of the people and winning the argument are people like the Kochs and Glenn Beck and Dick Armey? The leadership vacuum on the left is as much a failure of the Left as it is the Dem politicians.
Zach
Trading the Making Work Pay cut for the Estate Tax makes me sad. It’s not like something that progressive had any chance of surviving future, more conservative budgets, though. Hopefully the conference bill adds back the MWP cut on top of whatever’s in this bill.
MBunge
The political problem is Congressional Dems hapily went along with the Bush tax cuts, then spent the next decade thinking it would be easy as pie to get rid of them. I mean, Obama certainly lost the game of 11th dimensional chess here, but Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid took over in 2006. That’s 4 years ago. Why the hell didn’t they have ANYTHING even remotely resembling a plan or even a vague notion of what to do when the tax cuts were going to expire?
Mike
RinaX
@The Dangerman:
60 votes who will stick together, at that. Hell, five Dems refused to vote for the Senate package on Saturday.
jcricket
@Suck It Up!: My understanding is that this continues the extended (52-99 weeks) unemployment and extra money from the Fed, but doesn’t extend it past 99 weeks.
Frankly, I think structural issues are work with the 99ers (I’m not trying to insult them). Wish we had programs that would help them or their families move, for instance.
Repealing the stupid bankruptcy bill, letting BK judges perform mortgage cramdowns, etc would probably help those folks as much as an unemployment extension.
stuckinred
@Ranger 3: How about the anti-military veterans you shit eat dog fucker?
Stillwater
@jcricket: Do we really think #2 is the likely outcome here?
TINA – there is no alternative.
Of course #2 is likely, since it’s almost predetermined at this point.
danimal
It will be interesting to see if this deal actually gets the votes needed for passage. It’s not a given.
The Dangerman
@zattarra:
Bingo.
Since the house won’t burn down right now and since Obama is this close (fingers nearly touching) to a lock in 2012, making 2012 be about the Top 2% Tax cut sounds like a way to assure those cuts end. If you don’t think Obama is a lock, name me one possible Republican that isn’t fatally flawed.
Suck It Up!
@jcricket:
that’s like predicting the sun will come out tomorrow.
they may not get more of those votes, but its a fact that Dems and Obama have gotten those votes before.
sigh. the base is not who you think they are and if those UI extensions go through, the actual base will be quite happy since the actual base also consists of AA’s and Hispanics who have been disproportionately affected by the recession.
JC
Well, I’m about to bow out, I think. Going Galt. I’ll vote correctly, of course, but that’s about it.
The fight over unemployment can be WON by democrats, by liberals, and by the White House. It’s perfect for the news media. It doesn’t need to be tied to the tax cut, that’s bogus.
In fact, it would cement the Rethugs as ‘just don’t care’ about fellow americans.
I also pointed to the jcricket link. This was a line in the sand, and Obama is getting nothing out of it.
Nancy should blow this agreement up. It should be filibustered in the Senate.
Just LET THE BUSH TAX PLAN EXPIRE.
And write something new. Let Bush’s policy malpractice be part end with the last decade.
Mr. Poppinfresh
You know what? If you don’t like it, do something about it, because things are never going to change.
Emigrating to Canada isn’t that hard, especially for someone with higher education and job experience. The Canadian immigration system awards “points” for things like a BA/MA/PhD, among other things. And even if you aren’t interested in permanent residency, NAFTA allows for pretty pain-free work permits for a variety of job categories.
My wife and I did it, and so can you. And Canada isn’t the only country out there: most of the Western world has socialized medicine, sane politics, and full human rights for GLTB folks.
Stop trying to fix the failed project, and move somewhere where your efforts and talents will make a difference and be appreciated. The New Roman Empire is no more.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@geg6:
Go for it, Che. Nobody’s stopping you.
Zach
Also, every Senator that defects on from left (Feingold, etc) is going to make this bill worse and subject us to more of Snowe/Nelson waffling until the bill extends the estates cuts infinitely or whatever. Not saying that they shouldn’t stand on principle (see the argument both ways), but that’s the effect on the bill.
JWL
Obama never gave a rat’s ass about the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. He claimed otherwise to garner votes, that’s all.
It’s not simply that he can’t punch his way out of a soap bubble. It’s that he doesn’t want to. He respects the GOP more than he respects the democratic party’s rank and file.
Nick
@JC:
I think the fight over tax cuts is more winnable than the fight over unemployment. I’m starting to hear my more liberal friends begin to question extending them…they seem to all have “that friend” who just sits around collecting unemployment and doing nothing
Big City Mary
Oh stop with the “why oh why” lament-both members of the “chambers” are getting just what they wanted, with the exception of a notable few. Why is this week any different than the last two years?
In answer to the “oh noes-we can’t primary Obama”, it is seriously time to talk a third party-one where progressives can talk the talk, and walk the walk before – possibly losing. I really think there are alot of people right now in this country that would welcome some serious push back. I am thinking Howard D as VP or P and Finegold as VP or P, whatever, ok maybe Dennis K. but someone other than Krugman all by himself, shouting to the rooftops “you have been HAD.”
patrick
fuck it, I’m done…I hope the progressives revolt and shoot it down. My opinion is the same as Krugman’s.
Who is the fucking moron who decided to make it a 2 year extension? yeah, let’s kick this down to a presidential election year, where you’ve now lost all your cred by caving a first time.
at the very least they could of at least made the agreement this: make the $250k/under tax rates permanent, and a 2 year extension on the top 2%, so in 2012 the fight becomes extending the rich tax cuts.
I’m fucking done. I don’t give a shit anymore if the republicans get power…what fucking difference does it make? they get what they goddamn want when the dems are in power.
Sammy
“It’s a good deal, but the Nader wing of the party will freak out because it’s what they always do.”
I’ve always suspected that the people who voted for Nader are the same tree huggers that put Obama in the White House. The man promised that he would raise taxes on the rich. No ifs ands or buts. He lied.
jcricket
@Stillwater: So at some point in the future Dems capitulate, and the Republicans in charge shit-can SS, Medicaid and Medicare (either directly or indirectly, via Paul Ryan’s voucher system)… And then what.
Where will all the sick and poor old people go? Will they just die in the street? Will they go to the ER? The hospitals and hospices will all go instantly bankrupt.
Will people really just sit there and let that happen?
I know the boiling frog analogy is not actually true, but judging by what’s happening right now at the state level, it’s quite possible. States are cutting social services for the poor and needy left-and-right and people are saying “MORE. MORE AUSTERITY I TELL YOU.”
But I wonder if that will still be the case when their SS and Medicare are touched. Bush dared to mention SS privatization when times were good and his approval never recovered. If Republicans try again, and get somewhere, I’d bet dollars-to-donuts the shallacking Dems just got would be miniscule in comparison to what Republicans would suffer.
Lolis
@August J. Pollak:
The House should wait to pass it until votes on START, DADT, and DREAM have gone through the Senate. With Nancy still in charge, my guess is they will. Nancy doesn’t trust Republicans to keep their word.
JC
The only thing that makes sense is George Carlin.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@FoxinSocks:
Forget it Jake, it’s RoastedSparrowBridge-town.
Those ‘shoulds’ all rest on the idea of a foundation of a shared consensus across partisan lines regarding the bare minimum social good, an idea that no longer exists except in nostalgic memory.
Comrade Luke
The way I read this is two-fold:
1. Instead of an easily understood issue that normal people can learn about and get behind, they’ve instead made a bunch of changes that:
1a. obfuscate what’s happening so that the commoners can’t figure it out, shrug, and walk away. Payroll tax holiday? What’s that? “Making Work Pay”? Huh? Whatever, at least I get unemployment for another 16mo. Phew!
1b. significantly help the rich, but in areas that normal people either don’t understand at all, or understand that they will never be affected by, e.g. estate and capital gains taxes.
2. Take the whole tangled mess and – willingly – move it out 16 months, at which point Republicans will again hold unemployment insurance hostage in order to extend tax cuts, in an election season no less.
We’re getting played, by both sides.
jcricket
@Suck It Up!: First, let me say that I’m a died-in-the-wool Democrat and no matter how demoralized I am, I will be voting, and voting for Democrats. The alternative is unthinkable.
But from what I can tell, the 2010 election was so bad for the Dems largely because of the turnout/makeup.
My point was that – most of those groups are unreachable, no matter what we do, so we should stop trying. And I don’t necessarily believe, as you do, that within our base this will lead to positive results.
I don’t know what the answer is, but less hippie punching would be a start, if Dems want to go back to winning.
stuckinred
@Comrade Luke: Like that’s something new.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
I’m Ralph Nader, and I approve this message on behalf of George W. Bush.
jwb
@Nick: Some “friends” you have there, Nick. And where do your friends think “that friend” should find a job?
Nick
@jcricket:
I feel the same way about most of the so-called “base”
booferama
Obama got reamed on this. When the unemployment extension dries up again, Republicans will blackmail for some other sacrifice. And then, because of the continued lost revenue from the tax cut extension, Republicans will continue fake calls for deficit reduction. They’ll fight to gut the safety net.
Martin
@jcricket: If the quality of the resumes I’m receiving are any indication of the 99ers, its definitely structural. There’s clear reason why the folks on my desk are unemployed.
I’m beginning to develop a sense that the job market for the last 10 years or so has been overly kind to workers. I don’t mean that in a charitable sense, rather that so many jobs required so few skills that people got in these jobs, felt safe, and went nowhere. And now you have these people with resumes that look like shit. Shit education. Shit experience. Look, if your last 6 years of experience was doing clerical work or low-end retail, take some courses at the community college – accounting or marketing. Hell, even art or welding or something. The courses are cheap. They’re in the evening. String some together for a certificate. Show me that you’re at least trying to not be a minimum wage worker. Give me some reason to interview you.
zattarra
@jcricket: Nah, The Republicans figured it out this time. Promise the over 50 set they get to keep their benefits at the expense of everyone else. Those are reliable voters who will show up and vote GOP because they will get to keep their stuff and won’t pass a mountain of debt to their grandkids. They’ll just fuck their grandkids in their old age but by then our current over 50 set will have enjoyed their socialized medicine and social security and won’t give a sh-t.
Nick
@jwb:
I think they would be ok if they were “looking” for work.
stuckinred
I’m glad UI got extended but the argument that “people paid into it and they deserve to get it. . .forever”, is a bit weak.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@jcricket:
And then the unicorns arrive and delivery happy wishes to every happy child across the land!
Have you actually been paying attention the past ten years? Bush tried reforming Social Security, and look where that got him. Or look at all the Teabaggers wanting the government to stay away from their Medicare. The GOP will never touch that third rail as long as they’re dependent on old entitled white folk for votes.
NYT
The Dems aren’t bad negotiators. Its that the Dems in Congress (and Obama too) are almost all millionaires or expect to be as soon as they retire and that both the Democrats and Republicans are competing for the same pool of campaign donations or offers of lucrative post-Congress employment.
The interests of the Republicans and their voters are the same, whilst the interests of the Congrssional Democrats/Obama and their voters are divergent.
So they make a pretence of fighting for the middle class whilst working the scenes with Republicans to craft a “compromise”.
I can just picture them all laughing up their sleeves at their gullible electorate each and every time they pull this.
danimal
I’m with Martin. If we have a two year extension and then the whole tax regime expires, it’s a
goodbarely acceptable deal. I am sympathetic with the view(though not in agreement) that higher tax rates should be avoided until after we are truly out of the recession. That is a reasonable POV that resonates with moderates. But the Bush tax rates must expire for the fiscal health of the nation. I really don’t care about the tax bill of the top 2%ers per se, but I do care about the social stratification and devolved fiscal health of the nation that these rates have wrought.Nick
@Sammy:
well he did in the stimulus and he barnstormed the nation for two months calling for it.
He didn’t lie, he lost.
daveNYC
The estate tax extension is bad for two reasons.
1) It is a stupid amount of money that is going to the absolute wealthiest of the wealthiest. Worse than the upper-class Bush cuts.
2) I had been looking forward to a bunch of hard-core conservatives offing themselves before the end of the year as a tax dodge.
The payroll tax holiday is good, and 13 months of unemployment benefits is better. I would have liked an agreement on START to be in there though.
It’s just pathetic that we’re having to negotiate on these things though. Fucking unemployment benefits and START really should just be rubber stamped.
No need to do anything about DADT IMO, just leave it attached to the defense bill. If the Republicans want to fund their forever war, then they’ll have to be willing to fight it with teh ghey soldiers.
JWL
I doubt Obama will seek re-election. I predict he’ll wait to announce his withdrawal until such time as Biden can best position himself to roll the primary table.
Martin
@JC: BTW, don’t get too wrapped up in the ‘deal’. This is the 3rd or 4th deal so far. All of the others blew up. I’d say this has at most a 50/50 chance of passing.
The show’s not over until Obama signs it into law.
MTiffany
Let’s not jump for joy just yet. Let’s see what Mr. Fierce Advocate gave up in return.
Comrade Luke
@booferama:
Do you think Obama doesn’t realize all of this?
If the answer to that question is Yes, the followup question from me is: Then why did he do it?
jcricket
@zattarra: I dunno – I think this is one area where the stupidity of the American voter works to our advantage.
Any change to SS and Medicare can be spun pretty easily as “they’re going to take it away and let grannies die in the street”
And while I fear subtle change proposals – “we’re going to slowly increase the age of retirement” or “we’re going to cut benefits by x% 40 years out” – Republicans will not be able to resist full repeal/privatization/whatever.
We’d have a lot more to fear from “reasonable” Republicans than we do the Palin-esque crowd running around – esp. in the House.
RinaX
@geg6:
And now we have bloggers. Not quite the same impact.
I 100% agree with your point, though, that there is a leadership vacuum on the left, and has been there for years. What seems to be coming to a head is that President Obama was seized upon as the one who was supposed to do it for all of these different political factions that had failed to produce such a person like this for their cause.
I saw this problem way back when Clinton was in office, as a teenager. None of the so-called liberal organizations seemed to be doing anything to reach out to me as a young black female, and I couldn’t relate to them. Katrina caused the media to finally began portraying Shrub as what he was, which brought us control in 2006, and the collapsing economy convinced 53% of the country to go in the other direction. I never bought into the idea of it being a progressive mandate, because people were just scared, just like they were still scared in 2010 and swung right back in the other direction.
Liberals failed a long time ago to build an effective counter-messaging operation for a Dem administration to plug into with any effectiveness, and we’re reaping the results of that as much as any of the damaging Republican policies from 2001-2008.
Comrade Luke
@NYT:
That’s pretty much exactly the problem.
Sammy
“I’m Ralph Nader, and I approve this message on behalf of George W. Bush.”
There was a real difference between Gore and Bush. Gore is a real democrat. Voting for Nader 10 years ago was just stupid.
Theres not that big a difference between Obama and Romney. Its time to send them a message.
Bob Westal
You’re absolutely right, and this must be constantly repeated — I’m sure lots of Fox viewers believe that it’s a 13 month extension for the 99’s who’ll eventually be 155ers.
What it actually is is a deal to prevent us from talking about 25ers, which is where we would be without it. Affects a lot of people personally, including myself.
Personally, I’m not happy about this politically, but personally, assuming it goes through, I’m somewhat relieved and I buy John’s argument that, at this given point, it might be Obama’s only choice. Still, he can blamed for how he got to this point.
Comrade Luke
@danimal:
What in the world gives you any indication that this will happen?
zattarra
@FoxinSocks: Dude, did you miss how little hell they got for obstructing unemployment extensions last time. Jim Bunning said how a basketball game was more important than unemployment benefits and the GOP still couldn’t be shamed into doing anything. They are burning the country down because they know anything right now no matter what they do will be blamed on the President. just look at the left’s response here – somehow it is the president’s fault, not Republicans that this is happening. Maybe next year when people realize they now control a branch of government people will expect them to have some responsibly but now – people are too dumb. Just look at the number of people who don’t understand how a fillibuster works or thought these ttax issues could be passed under reconciliation – look at the number of comments on blogs about making them read the phone book. These are comments from people who care about the issues, but even they don’t actually understand how things actually work. So when this interested small percentage doesn’t get it, just imagine how much less the casual observer does. All that person knows is Democrats are in charge and my taxes went up.
Suck It Up!
@Martin:
the courses are cheap, not free. they have no income, remember?
Comrade Luke
On a sad note, looks like Elizabeth Edwards only has weeks to live.
JC
What’s interesting is the Daily Caller intro to their article. First, a picture of the House Rethug leaders, smiling. Then this:
President Obama and congressional Republicans have reached a tentative deal to extend the Bush tax cuts for all income levels and are presenting the proposal to congressional Democrats Monday afternoon, The Daily Caller has learned
Where are the House Dems that will have to bring this to a vote?
Nowhere.
Where are the Senate Dems that have to bring this to a vote?
Nowhere.
Because we must always do what the minority party (at least for this month) tells you what to do – as long as they are Republicans.
FlipYrWhig
People who think this sucks and want to talk about what Obama and Democrats _shoulda_ done need to address (1) how their shoulda suggestion would get the requisite number of votes and (2) how their shoulda suggestion has a built-in defense against the howls that would result from no deal, leading to higher taxes on everyone, a position favored by 12% of the nation, last I saw. Having addressed those, let the actual debate begin.
I don’t know enough about the specifics to know how I feel; sounds at first blush like suck-ass policy, but we knew we were getting that, because that’s what Republican nihilism inflicts upon us all.
So for me the question is not “Does this suck?” because the answer to that is “Yes.” The question is “Does this suck worse than some reasonable alternative?”
What say you?
Bob Loblaw
I’m glad we don’t have a long-term unemployment problem in this nation, though. At least, that’s what the administration has been telling me for the last year. I wonder why they would need to guarantee another 56 weeks of UE insurance then? Oh well, I’m sure it will all work itself out.
You reap what you sow, Democrats, you reap what you fucking sow…
brendancalling
The incompetence is so stunning as to be hilarious.
what. a. loser.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
We’re past the point where we can analyze this in terms of Dems vs. GOP, the Republicans long since turned this into a rout and have had the second string in since midway through the third quarter. That leaves us with the policy implications.
If “tough choices” are ahead and we need a bipartisan deficit commission to save us from ourselves and if freezing federal pay is necessary then this “deal” is not just bad policy, it’s incoherent. Now, one thing we can say about Dem policy up to this point is that, even when we think it’s wrong or cowardly, it at least was coherent. But this is not. If we want incoherent policy shouldn’t we support the GOP in the first place?
Now, if Dems going forward have any brains or guts at all [BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!] they’ll leverage this incoherent package of nonsense into a coherent plan for obstructing any more foolish austerity measures. Not holding my breath.
Maude
@Martin:
It seems that anytime I say to someone that they might like to learn about something or do something new, I get an instant no and the wall of resistance goes up.
I am always baffled by this.
Omnes Omnibus
@Sammy: One example of a difference: Supreme Court Justices.
water balloon
f the tax cuts can’t be ended 2 years out from the next election while we still have a Democratic House, they will never be ended. Obama won’t be willing to let them expire as he runs for reelection facing off against a Republican House.
Defense spending will never be cut. The social safety net is going to be shredded. When Obama was elected, I thought the least we would be able to get out of it would be the end of part of the Bush tax cuts. Couldn’t even get that.
Bob Loblaw
@FlipYrWhig:
This is just shameless.
Writing an actual budget and accompanying reconciliation instructions in the Senate is not great leap of imagination. It’s how the tax cuts came into existence from the very beginning. There is literally not a single case to be made for Democratic competence in any branch of government, or legislative chamber, this time. It’s a complete fuckup, and they deserve to eat shit because of it.
Bob Loblaw
@FlipYrWhig:
This is just shameless.
Writing an actual budget and accompanying reconciliation instructions in the Senate is not some great leap of imagination. It’s how the tax cuts came into existence from the very beginning. There is literally not a single case to be made for Democratic competence in any branch of government, or legislative chamber, this time. It’s a complete fuckup, and they deserve to eat shit because of it.
FlipYrWhig
@RinaX:
It’s worse than that. We simultaneously crave leaders and distrust the idea that we need leaders. We want to be led, then we hate that we’re being led. We’re never more comfortable then when we’re ripping into would-be leaders for being inadequate, or for losing.
Hal
@JWL
I honestly wonder some days if Obama will run again. I’m starting to have my doubts. But it won’t be Biden. I guarantee you if this does happen, it will be Hillary that runs. Biden can actually remain in the VP role if Clinton runs, and just keep himself in that position.
suzanne
@Ranger 3:
With an attitude like that, this feminist isn’t fond of you, either.
Corner Stone
@Martin:
As recently as 2007 it was widely predicted that the dominant word for 2010 would be “poach”.
Because companies were going gangbusters and hiring anyone with a pulse. But only a small percentage of those people were considered to be competent, much less high achievers. So companies were going to be in a bidding war for professional staff and professional services people who could actually make their engines run. At the time unemployment in Texas was somewhere sub 6% and in some parts under 5%.
Not so much anymore.
Martin
@Suck It Up!: I don’t begrudge them for not taking courses when unemployed, I begrudge them for not taking courses when they were employed. They were in shitty jobs and did nothing to get into less shitty jobs. I have a less shitty job to offer.
jcricket
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: That was my original point. Republican ain’t touching the stuff needed to actually get the budget/debt on track. So if they don’t, what’s the alternative?
There’s a viable one, if not politically at least budgetarily – raise taxes on rich people and corporations. SS problem solved. Expand Medicare by making it the public option. Boom, Medicare problem brought down into the realm of the solveable.
Then there’s the “kick the can down the road forever” option – but is that really an option? Is “forever” viable?
At some point don’t we have to get to the place where Paul Ryan-type plans are actually enacted by the Republicans or we sort of fix the problem by raising taxes?
Phoenician in a time of Romans
I said in the other thread that if Democrats in the House and Senate don’t like it, they can come up with something better.
How about this – a straight vote, with the pro-UI people letting the other side know that anyone who votes against it will get their picture, their home address and their phone number posted up on a site aping one of those “anti-abortion” hit lists.
There’s a lot of desperate unemployed who might be a little peeved. Why is it that class warfare only goes one way, with the rich pissing all over the poor?
Sammy
“well he did in the stimulus and he barnstormed the nation for two months calling for it.”
How did the stimulus raise taxes?
Odie Hugh Manatee
@AhabTRuler:
Yeah but I figured that it would happen like this. The politicians of our day are weak-willed and afraid to stand behind tough decisions. They aren’t interested in doing the right thing, they are more interested in amassing popularity, power, money and getting re-elected.
Doing the right thing will not get you any one of those items.
RinaX
@zattarra:
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face: the average person doesn’t notice shit about politics until it results in something being taken away from them, then they raise hell. And as I said in my last post, it ain’t just the White House that has messaging problems, that’s a structural flaw of the left and Democrats in general. All republicans in and out of Congress would hit the talk shows and say the same thing. Some Dems would go on tv and rail against the president for letting the tax cuts expire and raising taxes on their constituents, some would go on tv and rail against the President for not being progressive enough, some would attack him for not legalizing marijuana, and so forth and so on. Maybe a handful would be brave enough to defend letting the tax cuts expire on policy. Maybe.
jeffreyw
This thread worries puppeh.
RinaX
@FlipYrWhig:
Can’t argue with that.
FlipYrWhig
@Bob Loblaw: So is the idea “Just do it,” “it” being “write a better economic policy that I like better and can pass into law with the approval of both houses of Congress”? I think we can have a better discussion than that, no? My feeling for the moment is that it sucks and is a terrible outcome, whose one saving grace is that it could have been even worse. And the original sin was Senate Democrats not wanting to have the vote before the election, because the ones involved in close races were afraid that the policy they preferred would cost them at the ballot box.
arguingwithsignposts
just wanted to let everyone know that the ABL-GG thread now has 666 comments. I think Cole should shut it down for appropriate mark-of-the-beastiness.
ETA: And wildthyng had to go post another comment and screw it up!
Comrade Luke
@JWL:
Here’s a counterpoint. I heard someone speculate on their doomsday scenario – maybe it was Seder?
Biden steps down as VP for the ’12 election and gets replaced by…Evan Bayh.
I threw up in my mouth a little just typing that.
Rick Taylor
I feel pretty much the same way. I wouldn’t settle for less though.
James K. Polk, Esq
Donnie, shut the fuck up. You’re out of your fucking element.
Montysano
@JC:
I started to write a well-considered comment, but this clip, as always, stopped me in my tracks. What else is there to say?
Sammy
“One example of a difference: Supreme Court Justices.”
Kagan?
Comrade Luke
@jeffreyw:
Whatever happened to Wally? Did he get adopted?
Linda Featheringill
@LarsThorwald:
Big deal. I’m living in a household that is supported by a crappy job that pays the same it did 3 years ago, SS benefits that haven’t gone up for 2 years, and VA disability.
Yeah, it sucks to stuck with a little money. It sucks more if you have no money.
danimal
@Comrade Luke.
It’s the only thing that’ll get me through the day without drinking heavily. I’ll admit,it’s a big IF. If the plan is to kick the can down the road for two years, the Dems will repeat the fiasco of the past few months. In that case, we don’t need to worry about Obama’s reelection anyway; he’ll get swept in all 50 states.
So I have to believe that there is some different type of messaging or policy strategy that the White House is planning. Two years of “let them expire” may be a winning strategy, especially with a f#$%# legislative strategy at the same time.
Ross Hershberger
Okay, reading over some of the details, this isn’t as bad as I first thought. This will do some actual good, and the expense of another handout to those who least need it, but whatever.
I’m so conditioned to hate the GOP that I reflexively object when they get anything they want.
My wife has been on UE for a while. There’s no question of her benefits running out. She’s a worker, and she’ll take a job that’s a drastic downward move for the same dollars as the UE before she’ll sit around doing nothing.
I hate seeing someone with her skills, brains and experience under utilized. Something’s seriously wrong when talented people can search for a position for weeks and find nothing at all.
Eric S
Just popping in and back out so no time to read everything. I assume someone else has pointed this out but extending the tax breaks for 2 years makes it a campaign issue in 2012. I not usually a oh-woe-is-me kind of guy, I generally have thought Obama knows what he’s doing, but Jesusfuckingchristonastick, can we try to play it right just once? Once?
Now off to bar trivia and beer.
dollared
It’s not a bad deal. And I volunteer every penny I’ve paid into Social Security for the last 33 years to pay for it!
Hunh? What do you mean, Obama already volunteered it?
mk3872
John – Please stop with the FDL references.
I’m sure you respect some of the opinions there, but they are as hateful and nasty as their right-wing fringe counterparts.
They even include doctored photos of Obama ala Michelle Malkin.
Time to start calling out FDL for their hatred of everything that is not THEIR way just as you do to the hard-right.
Martin
@Maude: Well, I do get a sense that quite a few young people have been told that if they just get any old shitty degree, that the job market will open to them. It’s bullshit. I don’t care about the degree. I care about the skills. If you learned nothing while getting the degree, you wasted your time and money.
@Corner Stone: Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, if you’re in the right sector or have the right skills then poaching still happens, but if all you are offering is Film Studies with a minor in Philosophy and 6 years experience at Jamba Juice, I’m not sure why I would feel you are any more qualified for my position than the average 17 year old. Ok, I get that you’re committed to spend 4 years studying something, but so is the average 17 year old. It’s called high school.
Joseph Nobles
@patrick: One of Mitch McConnell’s important goals was no bifurcation of the middle bracket/upper bracket tax cuts. He knew what that meant – a vote on upper tax brackets all by themselves with middle brackets safe. There would have been no deal at all with bifurcation.
Bob Loblaw
@FlipYrWhig:
No, your misunderstanding. This isn’t even about the policy. This is straight up process.
The House Democrats explicitly chose not to follow conventional budgetary process in an election year. As such, there was no basis to write reconciliation instructions in the other chamber to use on any piece of legislation whatsoever, tax cuts or not.
The party left procedural arrows in their quiver. It was shortsighted then, and it’s downright embarrassing now. If there were 51 votes in the Senate for the President’s tax cut plan (which, we should always remember, was dumbassed to begin with but I digress), then Congress let their partner down big time. This time it wasn’t Obama’s fault, not even a little. But, I repeat, there is no justification for the Democratic Party’s laziness and cowardice in the face of the savviest congressional operators this country has ever seen. The Republicans wouldn’t have fucked something like this up.
MikeMc
Chuck Todd just said something on Hardball that was pretty interesting about letting the tax cuts sunset on the rich. He said that Pres. Obama was giving speeches about this six months ago. That Obama thought this was the strongest hand they could use against republicans in the mid-terms. Almost none of the Dems, in either house, wanted anything to do with it. So, none of these so called progressives in the house became this ballsy until they were re-elected or lost.
Big City Mary
I would like to remind everyone that this country has been through changes in “parties” and changes in what the “parties” stood for and the advent of new parties. Most of the people on this blog would have been Republicans 150 years ago.
At any rate, there comes a time.
Sadly, most of the people in this country believe that being white and from their particular state protects them from “the fate of the other” (at least we are not brown or from CA or NY). You think they vote against their best interests, but they don’t because they think it will never be about them, just “the other”. They think that checks might stop coming, but just to “other” people. No way would all these pasty faced, bloated white people stop “their” checks. When the checks stop coming, and they will stop coming given the last 10 years, then maybe they will be willing to take another look at the viable political party options.
stuckinred
@mk3872: I’ve been doing that ever since I jumped ship from over there.
xian
i think people are forgetting that we lost the last election and now have to eat shit.
FlipYrWhig
@Phoenician in a time of Romans:
Sounds great! Would it really hurt Republicans? Seems to me they’ve been total douches every other time UI has come up for an extension, and I haven’t see unemployed people feeling inclined to hold Republicans responsible for that.
Because Clinton-era DLC-type Democrats want to be “pro-business,” and fear that if they make a “$700 billion tax increase” (or whatever) come to pass, they’ll never get reelected again. The poor will get more representation and sympathy in Congress only after clearing that clog, the Democrats who rode “Third Way” precepts to victory and made nicey-nice with investment bankers and free trade. Even Obama has a touch of it. Reviving Democratic populism is highly desirable and terribly slow in coming.
eemom
@The Grand Panjandrum:
from your keyboard to Pelosi’s ears.
I am 1000% on board with that, unlikely though it may be.
Irony Abounds
@LarsThorwald:
Gee, sorry you didn’t get your 1.4% pay raise Lars (although you may well get an increased salary from other means, such as change in level). Guess that moves you to the front of the misery line, ahead of those who are barely surviving at all without jobs, or others who are earning much less because of the recession. Christ, what a shining example of exactly the mindset of government workers that Republicans are able (quite successfully) to sell to the public at large. Federal workers are way way down on my checklist of people to worry about in these economic times.
As for the deal, meh. The biggest question is what would have happened had there been no deal. Does anyone really think the press would have focused the blame on Republicans?
Would.not.have.happened. At best, it would have been sold to the public as a failure of bipartisanship and everyone would have been painted as villains.
Then, you’d have a tax increase for all of about two months. When the new Congress took office the Republican House would have passed a permanent reduction of rates and the Senate would have the 60 votes, between Republicans and pseudo Dems to do follow along. You’d never get an extension of unemployment benefits and START, DADT and the Dream Act would be dead. At least they may get one of those three before the end of this session.
$5M on the estate tax exemption is about a $1M too high, and the rate should probably be at 40%, but it isn’t the end of the world.
Oh, and whatever blame Obama deserves is completely overshadowed by the utter failure of Congress to address this a long time ago. The tax issue should have been taken care of even before Scott Brown took office. A sensible tax compromise long before the 2012 elections was possible. So in a sense it’s Obama cleaning up another mess.
chaseyourtail
Over at HP, some blogger is outraged that Obama didn’t secure a two year extension of unemployment benefits. He thinks one year is crap, apparently. What reality does this guy live in?
stuckinred
@Martin: I guess you just need to be the global guidance counselor for all these dolts.
Ajay
Hating republicans is nothing new. They are just doing what they normally do. There was nothing wrong in letting all the tax cuts expire. Some day its good learn to stand up; no matter what the cost. Rs will eat you anyway as they control the message.
Stillwater
@jcricket: Will people really just sit there and let that happen?
I have a very open mind about what Americans will just sit through and let happen. If you told me ten years ago the shit that was gonna go down in the aughts, the shit we we politely sat through, I’da said no way. People will demonstrate their anger.
Americans are amazingly resilient at re-learning one important lesson: always take the bait.
catpal
at least they could have given the Unemployed 99ers and those in states that cut off benefits after 26 weeks (some states did not qualify for Fed EUC) – – deserve at leastan additional 6 months of unemployment benefits.
Very disappointed that they didn’t ask for more to help those without Jobs.
Ed Drone
@LarsThorwald:
As a Fed, you’d better NOT have been “working for Obama” in four states. You’d better not have done any of the many activities the Hatch Act bans; I can’t work for the Democrats because of that damned Act, and I know there are many out there who are sticklers (when it’s a Democrat doing it, for sure) and you may soon join those “lucky duckies” who’ve lost their jobs if someone finds out.
I really hope you didn’t mean that.
Ed
burnspbesq
The way to explain a $5 million exemption and a 35 percent rate (the estate tax deal) is that substantially all small businesses and family farms are exempt forever. I’d be happier with the 2009 estate tax ($3.5 million and 45 percent) because I think it does the same thing (if your lawyers can’t figure out a way to put a 15 percent haircut on the value of a farm or a business, you need new lawyers), but this is better than no estate tax at all, and it’s arguably better than the 2001 estate tax ($the 675K exemption really was too small).
PurpleGirl
I’ll read the thread later. But first: Are the unemployment benefits retroactive? Will people who have already dropped off the benefit rolls be able to sign up for more benefits?
Moses2317
Delaying the planned Bush tax increases for another two years is a bad idea fiscally and politically for the Democrats, as the tax cuts for the wealthy should be ended now and the middle class tax cuts should have been extended for three years to remove them from the 2012 election.
That being said, however, it is clear that the votes were not there for the ideal result. As such, compromise here was necessary. And this compromise seems not all that bad – 13 months of unemployment benefits is great, the payroll tax holiday should have some stimulative effect, and the extending the estate tax is a good idea given that the option of leaving the issue until next year could have easily allowed the estate tax to be permanently eliminated.
So, overall not what I would like as a progressive, but I think the President is getting about the best we could get out of our broken Senate.
Winning Progressive
Martin
@Comrade Luke:
What gives you any indication that a permanent tax cut is more likely to be repealed than a 2 year temporary one?
The double standard around here is stunning. Everyone is up in arms over the $700B >$250K tax cut, but was totally okay with the $2,100B $250K can better afford the tax hike, no question, but that’s not the whole issue. The whole issue is that there’s a big deficit that will eventually need to be closed, and there’s no fucking way it can get closed just by taxing income >$250K.
Anyone who is cheerleading for a permanent <$250K tax cut either is essentially demanding that the deficit be closed through spending, and defense will only get you so far, or is saying that the deficit should never get closed so long as the Democrats win their tax showdown and soak the rich.
If getting the deficit in line at any reasonable point in the future is a priority for anyone, then all of the tax cuts have to be temporary. They have to. There is no reasonable alternative. All of the doomsayers need to step back and figure out what their policy goals are, because my sense is you have none. You just want your team to win, to wave your foam finger, and to say 'hey, we fucked these guys over!' As far as I can tell, that's the policy.
Cain
@Martin:
Agreed. I just got a masters in comp sci on my employer’s dime. Several others are going back and getting degrees. You want to do that so you have options. I’m also been doing a lot of open source work. If you’re a programmer this is the best way to get noticed as barrier of entry is very low and you can learn a lot. Even from 12 year olds.
cain
WyldPirate
I told you folks that this is pretty much what would happen after Axlerod came out with the slip.
How’s that capitulation taste now?
Next up. Rethugs take the Senate in ’12. They get rid of the filibuster–which might not be necessary–and they make the tax cuts for the wealthy permanent in ’13.
Odds are good that Obama goes down in ’12. It depends on the economy and the Rethug nominee. If the rethugs take things in ’12, the first thing that goes is HCR–all of it. Medicare vouchers come next. SS cuts after that.
Say goodbye to the “New Deal”.
Keith G
@jeffreyw: Puppeh is so worried, he is losing his hair.
MikeMc
@Stillwater: Absolutely correct! America is still, currently, the greatest country in the world. However, our citizens are easily the most willfully ignorant in the world. It’s fucked up how little they know!
FlipYrWhig
@Irony Abounds:
I follow your scenario in almost every particular. The one play I found somewhat intriguing was letting the tax rates reset, letting UI also go unresolved, then having Obama say, when Republicans tried to pass a broad-based tax cut, “I will veto any tax cut that comes before me until Congress passes aid for the unemployed, because I will not allow the richest people in the nation to be helped while the most vulnerable are being left behind.” I think it _might_ be possible to win on that. But of course the cost would be letting unemployed people twist in the wind and seeing everyone get a smaller paycheck, and I’m not sure what Plan B would be if it didn’t work.
Martin
@burnspbesq: Well, what really matters to most people is that anyone under the cap gets the step-up cost basis. If the estate tax didn’t return, a lot more people inheriting smallish estates were going to keep getting fucked.
People simply don’t recognize what a significant tax benefit the estate tax provides to average inheritors.
News Reference
Obama handed Republicans several wins: (1) Gifts for millionaires and billionaires (2) that will dig a deeper deficit hole (3) that will be used by Republicans to hammer Obama into more concessions in the future.
In return Obama offered his usual chump “change” to ‘the left’ that is (again) both too short lived and completely inadequate to meet the needs of the moment.
And, as usual, the victories that Obama handed Republicans are more than just horrible policies for Americans and America, they are ‘disastrous’ politics for the Democratic Party.
Obama’s actions have clearly shown he’s willing to give gifts to millionaires and billionaires while demanding sacrifices from the poorest and weakest amongst US (see: Obama’s fraudulent Deficit Commission).
And the deficit that Obama is helping Republicans create with these gifts to millionaires and billionaires will be the excuse used by Republicans to further attack safety nets like Social Security in the future.
FlipYrWhig
@WyldPirate:
I still don’t know why you think that Axelrod, and Orszag before him, weren’t expressing what the whip counts and internal discussions were telling them, rather than making some sort of gaffe that wrecked whip counts and internal discussions.
FlipYrWhig
@News Reference: The Deficit Commission that didn’t do anything except waste a lot of time? I don’t know why people act like that was a big deal, any more than the Iraq Study Group.
4tehlulz
@Moses2317: You are not a true progressive, as you acknowledge that the Senate does not bend to anyone’s will when it doesn’t want to.
Cain
@MikeMc:
_this_ is where the failure is. We still lambast Obama for not doing enough, but we can’t seem to not take these assholes to task. Really, I’m really sick of these democratic motherfuckers. It’s too bad I can’t do anything since I’m not their constituents. Otherwise I would have raised hell. Every body should have raised hell with congress critter BEFORE the elections so that they could at least force these motherfuckers to act.
We’re as to blame as anybody else. I blame myself and the rest of you more than I blame Obama. If we can’t even organize at the grass roots level to get what we want and force these fools before an election to do what we want.. pathetic.
cain
blahblahgurgleblegblah
Republicans!?!?! Oh come on John!
Who is it that promoted the so-called ‘cat food commission’? Why it was President Obama and Democratic senator Dick Durbin. Who is it that ‘negotiated’ this clusterfuck? Why it was President Obama!
When are you going to realize that this *IS* their Goddamn agenda! NO FUCKING DIFFERENT FROM REPUBLICANS!
Suck It Up!
@chaseyourtail:
LOL!!! omg. keep raising the bar. Most of the blogosphere thought the Dems were only going to push for 3 months.
Keith G
@Ed Drone: Doesn’t that depend on one’s employment classification?
Tsulagi
@LarsThorwald:
You don’t see the big picture. Freezing federal pay was a necessary advance signal from the WH before negotiations with Agent Orange and McConnell there would be no unseemly displays of resolve. It worked. As with freedom, capitulation isn’t free. The WH thanks you for your sacrifice. Oh, and Merry Christmas.
jaleh
GOD! I hate Republicans. I can’t even talk to my Brother any more. For crying out loud I bought him a car last year. He has Sean Hannity on his likes on his facebook. I am really depressed. HELP!!!!
Linda Featheringill
@suzanne:
What a soft answer. Are you getting mellow? :-)
Bullsmith
Bullshit bullshit bullshit. They drew 1 line in the sand and traded it away ASAP. Yes they got something, but the price was them ever fucking standing for everything. Next, the cost of These tax cuts will come directly out of social security.
WyldPirate
@FlipYrWhig:
I meant “slip” in the sense that he didn’t mean to phrase it publicly as he did; not that they couldn’t see the writing on the wall.
Cain
@WyldPirate:
I for one will be happy if they get rid of the fillibuster. Eventually, Democrats will take over again since Republicans will be doing whatever to fuck the country over. They will have completely run out of excuses by that time if they can’t get anything accomplished.
I don’t think they will get the fillibuster banned as they clearly realized they will never stay in power forever. And they don’t really have any policies to run on except for tax cuts so I expect things will get a lot of worse. Best it be with an all republican setup.
cain
Comrade Luke
@Martin:
I’m having trouble parsing your argument, but I agree with you that all of the tax cuts need to be temporary.
I’m saying that I don’t think moving the discussion out two years will accomplish that, because in two years we’ll be talking about trading extending unemployment benefits and/or something else, for a package similar to this which serves no other purpose than kicking the can down the road to the ’14 midterms.
Nick L
@JC:
Maybe I’m being a bit too cynical here, but I did grow up in Oklahoma and know the Republican mindset pretty well:
Republicans don’t care about fellow Americans. Really. Solid Republican voters, who might individually be the most kindhearted and charitable people you’ll ever meet, will at the same time blame the poor for their joblessness and poverty, attribute all wealth and success to hard work and talent, absolutely refuse to criticize other Republicans, and vehemently hate Barack Obama. Again, I’m not judging their character – I know and admire many Southern Baptists who, despite a total opposition to welfare, donate to charities and do humanitarian work in South America and Africa. But there’s a rigid ideology, tempered by sectarianism and fear, that equates wealth and business acumen with patriotism and American values, and poverty with worthlessness. (Of course, this has always been an undercurrent in American society, but not since the Gilded Age has it been so callous.)
That’s really one of the (many) fundamental intractable problems in America today – Republican political operatives, seeking electoral gain, exploited deep divisions in the United States, which eventually led to the clusterfuck of propaganda, ideology, intransigence, and nihilism that we see today. Nearly 40% of the country bought in to this. The other 60% is desperately confused, and the media is useless.
It makes for some depressing-ass politics and horrendous policy, but also provides some funny videos of Louie Gohmert. So it’s a mixed bag.
FlipYrWhig
@Irony Abounds:
Was it? Maybe Schumer’s $1M proposal? I think that we’re always going to be bumping up against Democrats who fear attack ads about the “X billion dollar tax increase” they voted for, even if it was a proposal taxing people with a fortune of $100B one additional percent. That’s why my pet idea for how to solve that is a “meta” campaign spotlighting how Republicans always try to trick us, by doing things like spinning a tax increase targeted at the top 2% of highest earners as though it affects more people than that, such as by phrasing it in terms of total dollars rather than the effect on the typical person.
Stillwater
@FlipYrWhig: So for me the question is not “Does this suck?” because the answer to that is “Yes.” The question is “Does this suck worse than some reasonable alternative?”
But we’ll never know since, according to the view you’re presenting, Democrats did all they could to get the better deal. This seems dangerously close to the art of the possible nonsense discussed oh-so-long ago. I’m reminded of Corner’s definitive take down of that position.
Re Democrats, the more things change…..
marcopolo
This “deal” stinks. First, even though they have a decade’s warning that these tax cuts will expire, the Dems somehow get caught with their pants down then the expiration date arrives. Second, even though only 26% of the population support continuing the tax cuts for incomes above $250K, somehow the Dems cannot figure out a way to decouple these two items. Third, letting the estate tax rate go back to Clinton era levels seemed to be on its own track (with Baucus advocating a 45% level and $3.5M exemption level), but not these too are coupled with the other tax cuts and will continue at 35% (which is less than the 2009 level) w/a $5M exemption.
Finally, we do have a budget deficit problem which is exacerbated by continuing all of these tax cuts. I’d like to see all of them go away personally, but to link the two cuts for the wealthy (along with the reduced tax rates for capital gains and on other forms of income that are pretty much only available for the wealthy is insane.
I get it that we all want UI extended but the argument for that should be able to be made outside of the tax cuts based on the state of the economy. Get all the Dems in the House and Senate to vote for extending unemployment benefits and put its failure squarely on the Rs for gods sake.
Finally, I am not quite sure why Obama (I am going to stay out of it while the Congress figures out Health Care) suddenly decided he had to unilaterally negotiate with the Rs on this. He should have stepped back, said he needed the UI extension and continued tax cuts on the middle class and would veto anything else as fiscally irresponsible and otherwise he would let Congress work out the details.
For fucks sake I don’t see how we start moving away from our rush towards being a plutocracy if this is the kind of crap that winds up being passed with all three branches still held by the Democrats.
And don’t get me started on the payroll tax cuts. Yeah, they will put more cash in the pockets of working folks but they take cash out of both SS and Medicare. Not sure how that squares in the end.
nancydarling
@MBunge: The actual vote in 2003 for the Bush tax cuts was 50-50 with Darth Vader casting the deciding vote.
Odie Hugh Manatee
Thank goodness that the children of the old wealthy farts out there won’t have to knock off Ma or Pa to avoid that nasty Estate Tax.
Teh ekonomee iz safed!
Congress is the problem, not Obama. They gave him a damned less if you do, damned more if you don’t, bill to sign. There isn’t much Obama can do when the Democrats in the House and Senate won’t do it in the first place. Anyone who thinks the bully pulpit would change anything is nuts.
All the pols are doing is putting a band aid on cancer, betting that they will get what they want out of the system and cash out, leaving it to collapse on the next sucker in office.
booferama
@Comrade Luke: I’ve been asking a lot of people that very question. I haven’t heard a good reason that counters the badness of the compromise.
Martin Gifford
@FlipYrWhig:
It seems you’ve abandoned the other thread, so I’ll repost a reply to you I made there:
Summary: It’s difficult, and not all the Dems are really liberals, therefore it can’t happen.
Attention FlipYrWhig: I get it. I totally understand what you are saying.
And you are wrong. Focus carefully now. This is very important. This is the moment when the light switches on for you. I can hear the angels singing already:
1. It’s difficult… because no Dem president has fought for the truth and for ethics.
2. Not all Dems are liberals… because no Dem president has fought for the truth and for ethics.
3. Change can’t happen… because no Dem president has fought for the truth and for ethics.
Do you see the light?
Keith G
@News Reference:
That is my takeaway. There will be/must be a period of pain that we will go through to account for the Bush fiasco. A deal such as this just makes that future pain wider and deeper.
Obama apparently is betting on a 2012 Hail Mary to be able to save our most vulnerable from being told to walk the plank. They better learn to dog paddle.
catpal
So this “deal” does not help the Long-term Unemployed.
But they saved taxes for Hedge Fund Billionaires.
And those billionaires get to pay a lesser tax rate than the Unemployed Tax Benefits – currently taxed at 20%.
Sigh. I need a drink.
SIA
@Martin: Thanks for being a voice among reason (among several others).
I’m peeking out from under bed thinking, Could Be Worse.
BTW who’s the screechy smuggy-pants hosting Countdown tonight?
AnnaN
Well, as a middle class Federal employee, looks like we’re the class doing the only sacrificing in this shitty economy.
FormerSwingVoter
With the economy the way it is right now, we need this deal.
Some quick-and-dirty back-of-the-envelope calculations based on prior law and Moody’s multiplier estimates:
$120 billion payroll tax holiday (multiplier of 1.29)
$40 billion (maybe more?) UI extension (multiplier of 1.64)
$20 billion corporate depreciation write-offs (multiplier of 0.27)
$155b + $65b + $5b = $225 billion in GDP growth
Depending on what multiplier you use for Okun’s Law, this should result in a gain of 1 million jobs in 2011
We can’t afford not to take this deal.
WyldPirate
@Cain:
Cain, I really thought that this was the case after Bush. I am amazed at the fecklessness of the Dems and their seemingly uncanny ability to fuck up a wet dream.
Unfortunately, I am afraid that the tolerance for disaster of the American people has not yet been plumbed by the Rethugs. We as a people seem perfectly content to accept that “up is down”, “war is peace” and that “we have always been at war with East Asia”. I think the Rethugs have a lot more room to wreak havoc.
I have mixed feelings on the repeal of the filibuster. IT’s clear that it will be abused as long as it is in place.
I don’t think that anything short of a Constituional amendment abolishing the Senate or seeriously reforming it will fix our system now. I think it will take a major crash for that to happen. The odds that we don’t go the Weimar Republic route v. reform are a toss-up.
lol
@blahblahgurgleblegblah:
How’d the “Cat Food Commission” work out? I was assured by many Firebaggers that this was Obama’s secret plan to gut Social Security and just wait and see and he’ll get privatize it all after the election.
Your hysterical shrieking came down to nothing.
Kryptik
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
I’m sorry, but Obama can’t stand above the fray any longer. He owns this shit sandwich as much as the rest of the party does. He has to. The whole of the Democratic party wears this fucking albatross around their necks, our President included, because they got played hardcore and fuck all. Even agreeing that this might be the best deal we could’ve gotten, the point is that we should never have been in this fucking position in the first place where this crap is really ‘a better deal than expected’. A shit sandwich is still a shit sandwich but now it’s dried out and not as pungent as the fresh steamy dollop we would’ve gotten.
I’m sorry, but I’m at a point where this whole fucking party is just so fucking arcane to me and just not worth anything but a fucking pittance vote.
FlipYrWhig
@Stillwater: Possibly. :P But, more seriously, the problem with all the do more/work harder/no negotiation with terrorists approaches is that there are downsides to all of those too. Obama would have looked more “strong” to say, Fuck all y’all, I told you what my plan was, and that’s all I’m signing, and every time you send me something that isn’t my plan I’m gonna slap it back down, over and over and over again. Strength! But the cost of that show of strength would be everyone paying higher taxes, unemployed people getting jacked up, and all kinds of other stuff. Is it worth it? I dunno. I’m very risk-averse and tend to focus on downside risks. Here I see immense downside and not much upside, because there’s not a lot that scares Republicans, given that they’ve been nothing but douchebags and crazy people for two straight years and haven’t seemed to suffer a whit.
Hugh
This appears to be more of an actual deal than I thought it would be. I don’t love it. It sure isn’t exciting. But as I understand it it isn’t total capitulation either.
Is it enough? At this moment I don’t think so. Linking UI to tax cuts for the wealthy was a strategic error. The Democrats could have split these issues and pushed back to what I suspect would be good result, knocking the Republicans onto their heels and setting the stage (to mix metaphors) for more aggressive negotiation down the road for bigger gains.
But Obama goes for the immediate good I’m thinking. He wanted the unemployed to be helped. He didn’t want to leave them high and dry in the short term. I appreciate this because it means he’s got some empathy. Hard to argue with that.
I wouldn’t want to be president. Lots of shitty decisions about who to help and when. And who to leave out for the time being. Ugh.
The point made earlier regarding Democrats being influenced by big money is on target. And now with Citizens United this is even more true. I have little doubt that this is a big part of what damaged Democratic unity.
Having said all this Obama has to get out of these reactive stances. He has to take the argument right to the Republicans and make them sweat. Otherwise we’re stuck with a lot more of these smallish moments.
Keith G
@Nick L: Some may call that cynical, but this neighbor from Texas calls that a mouthful of truth.
Davis X. Machina
Mitch McConnell backed a payroll tax holiday in 2009.
In September of this year, Nouriel Roubini loved the payroll tax cut. Open Left loved Nouriel Roubini loving the payroll tax cut.
Just sayin’
eemom
@mk3872:
nah gunna happen.
For some reason, John HAS to kiss Jane’s ass, no matter how vile that place gets — no matter with what sneering contempt she has treated him — he’s just gotta do it everytime something this side of batshit pops up on her FP.
No clue WHAT reason — could be anything. Who knows, maybe she’s got pix.
Come to think of it — maybe John oughtta STFU about Obama caving to the repubs……..
lol
somehow the Dems cannot figure out a way to decouple these two items
You might have missed the vote Saturday where they did decouple the two items and it didn’t pass.
And how was it reported by the media? “Democrats fail to extend tax cuts”
Kenneth
Obama just got himself a primary challenger.
There’s a full-scale revolt in the base….hoping for Bernie Sanders or Alan Grayson. Go to DailyKos. People are ready to burn Obama in effigy.
CHANGE!@
PurpleGirl
@Suck It Up!: Problem in NYS is that UI only went through Tier 3. And then you were dropped off benefits.
bluemeanies
Am I the only one who thinks that the better strategy would be 3 years so we aren’t fighting this all out with the new Congress again right before the pres election?
JC
Nick L,
Definitely a lot are like that. But this is what is meant by LEADING. Especially on an issue that every democratic has spoken out about, for a decade, especially given the utter amoral incoherence and lies coming out of the Rethugs mouths.
I suppose that the administration sees this as the only opportunity to have any additional stimulus, over the next couple of years. and they’ll sacrifice any principle, in order to get that.
I think it is going to backfire. I think it is meeting the unprincipled Republicans, with a ‘kinder gentler’ version of being unprincipled. I think think that the Rethugs will generate new ways to blackmail, a lot, over these next 2 years. I think this validates Bush’s tax cuts, as Obama actually has to SIGN THE LAW extending these cuts. (thus validating Bush.)
Is it the best of bad choices? Not in my eyes. But I could be wrong, of course. As a pragmatic liberal, I don’t claim to ‘know’ the truth. But some of the points cited by krugman, other democrats, make a good case.
Hugh
@lol:
Everyone knew that the Democrats weren’t going to bring this to an actual confrontation, that this was a show-vote.
Plus I think you’re being a bit slippery in your description of how the media reported it.
Bob Loblaw
@Martin:
Are you offering anywhere near the median wage? No, you’re not, you said you’re working for the state of California. And what a vibrant, stable employer they are.
So what makes you feel like you’re entitled to the median worker to staff the job?
@FormerSwingVoter:
I wish you were being sarcastic. The payroll tax holiday is dodgy as hell.
For the record, the 2010 net job creation numbers are at +951,000 (private and public combined) according to the BLS, with one month (plus an occasional revision) to go. And that was with substantially greater stimulative efforts, both fiscally and monetarily.
Mitch Guthman
I hate to say it but my expectations of Pres. Obama are so low that this looks like maybe not the worst deal possible. Frankly, I expected Obama to get nothing at all so this probably counts as another great progressive victory for the greatest president ever.
Naturally, as a guy who’s playing chess while we mere mortals are playing checkers, Obama agreed to a time-line which will allow the Republicans to do the same thing to him again (and probably get even more concessions) right before the 2012 election.
At this point, I think Sarah Palin is Obama’s last, best chance for reelection. We so screwed.
chaseyourtail
@Suck It Up!: I agree. One year of UEB is pretty damn good…But see, by saying it should have been 2 years of UEB, the left can still complain about Obama while pretending to give a shit about the unemployed.
FlipYrWhig
@Martin Gifford: I think there’s an intractable problem at the heart of American politics, and it’s a stupid one, but it’s there. It’s that the kind of Democrats who can get elected in poorer and more rural states won’t be jumping on the bandwagon for bold progressive politics. At best you’ll get populism, which would be a hell of an improvement, but it’s not exactly liberalism. To be able to get 60 votes for something, you have to draw from Democrats from these states. You can get elected president without them, but you can’t have a strong Senate majority without them. That’s why people from those states have a very simple and powerful argument against any president who wants to do something they don’t want to do: if I do that, I will lose, and if I lose, you’ll get a maniac Republican instead of me, so you’d better make me happy. No matter who the president is, he or she will never have leverage over that.
That’s partly why I think reducing the filibuster would help immensely. It shouldn’t be possible for a regional rump to completely dictate all politics in the country.
Dennis SGMM
Seems to me that the seeds of this were sown when Obama decided to pack his economic team with pro-banker, pro-Wall Street types. Their notion that if we poured enough money in at the top some of it would eventually come out to the bottom was just another form of supply-side economics. The situation became worse because the administration and Congressional Dems focused most of their efforts on anything other than getting people back to work. If they’d managed to actually get the unemployment rate under 9% we probably wouldn’t even be having this conversation.
penpen
@FlipYrWhig: Sadly, I can already the picture the giddy look on Republican faces were Democrats to start pouring money into math-problem meta-ads.
WyldPirate
@eemom:
And perhaps you should get it through your thick head that that is what happened—Obama and the Dems got played and they caved instead of having the temerity to tell our host to STFU.
Not only that, The Rude Pundit sums up the bitterest pill from this Dem clusterfuck:
Scott de B.
You should join the teabaggers. They want to blow up UI extension as well.
Brian J
@August J. Pollak:
That’s not entirely true. The majority of the cost of the tax cut came from what went to both the rich and everyone else. The rest, which was about $700 billion or so, was what went to the rich on top of what they were going to already get.
Taxes will eventually need to be raised regardless of how much spending we cut, and they should be raised on the rich so that they are a lot higher than they are now. However, they will also need to be raised slightly on the middle class unless spending cuts are to be truly massive.
Bruce (formerly Steve S.)
@FormerSwingVoter:
Awesome, then we can look forward to Obama NEVER ONCE MENTIONING THE DEFICIT FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS.
Comrade Luke
@Scott de B.:
I wonder if the teabaggers will be against this, given the impact to the deficit and all.
SIA
@Ross Hershberger: The GOP has the stronger bargaining position, IMO, because they don’t mind blasting everything to smithereens and they don’t give a GD shit about the poor. The majority of the Dems do.*
*excluding the usual suspects
The SOTU should be extremely interesting.
FlipYrWhig
@Dennis SGMM: I think the seeds were sown when the banking system almost collapsed in ’08, forcing the whole beginning of the Obama term to be about a bunch of stupid bullshit that he never counted on having to handle, meaning that calming down the imaginary and dickface-filled world of banking had to be the focus of policy, rather than anything more tangible or long-term. Banking collapse led to stim, auto bailout, then FinReg had to get done, and essentially none of that was even under discussion in the election campaign itself.
Bob Loblaw
@chaseyourtail:
No, it isn’t. Changing the automatic stabilizer formula so that the UI is self-adjusted according to the conditions of the country and not beheld to the actions of Congress is good, but that’s stupid hippie talk.
You people realize that you have now fallen so far as to cheer your country’s ability to maintain benefits during a time of 10% nationwide unemployment, rather than the issue being completely noncontroversial and nonpolitical, yes? What’s next, will the Republicans trick you into thinking the very existence of said benefits whatsoever is an incredible progressive achievement for humanity?
Nobody moves that Overton window quite like Republicans…
FlipYrWhig
@Kenneth: Grayson for President! He couldn’t get reelected in Florida, but he definitely could be President!
WyldPirate
@Nick L:
Man, do you have the Southern Baptist mindset distilled to a tee.
I grew up within one family branch that is rabid Southern Baptist and the other branch being rabid Church of Christ. All are individually good and decent people, but collectively, they despise all of the things you list and trumpet those things that you say.
All of the people that managed to obtain a college education in the family, a grand total of 4, or all liberals and all either atheists or agnostic. Needless to say, certain subjects are verboten at family gatherings.
Moses2317
@4tehlulz: I’ve also heard that if we spend all our time attacking President Obama, rather than the conservative Republicans that have taken the unemployed hostage, we will have much better success next time.
Winning Progressive
marcopolo
@Davis X. Machina:
Yeah, and Roubini also said we should pay for the payroll tax cut by letting the tax cut on incomes over $250K expire. I, too, would have no problem with that. Stimulative costs paid for by non-stimulative costs. But then that’s not the deal is it?
JC
Scott de B,
I suppose the obvious comment – that democrats and the adminstration are not responsible for holding UI benefits hostage, and they would vote for them right now cleanly – doesn’t make an impact on you?
The RETHUGS are responsible for not getting UI passed. The RETHUGS. They are blocking it.
Obama, democrats, and all of us should fight like hell to get UI passed. But this deal is basically a quasi Neville Chamberlain deal. And giving in – no, not giving in – CARRYING THEIR WATER – by actively doing their bidding.
Brian J
@Ranger 3:
If someone doesm’t like the current ideology of most Democrats, there’s really only one thing that can be done: elect more liberal Democrats. Doing that doesn’t really involve electing Republicans in the mean time, because the first few years will likely be spent cleaning up their messes. Instead, it involves making the ones we now have successful, and then inching closer and closer to the left.
I guess there’s always a chance that if Obama isn’t reelected in 2012, we could get a one-term Republican who will lose to a much more liberal Democrat in 2016, but I’d rather not take that chance. I’d rather work like crazy to make sure Obama is reelected, hopefully with Democrats like Tom Perriello coming along for the ride, and then making sure the Democrats keep the presidency and the freshman Democrats get reelected.
FlipYrWhig
@penpen: I call them “Republicans must think you’re stupid” ads. I think between the Citizens United stuff, which brought out how political ads can be full of lies and paid for by outside groups, and just the usual Republican spew of made-up nonsense to scare and mislead people, a meta-campaign about manipulation might be able to gain some traction. The point isn’t “math,” the point is “lying” and “spinning.”
danimal
It will be interesting to see if this compromise passes. I’m not sure it will; there’s a lot in it that conservatives and liberals won’t like. It could be this year’s TARP.
Keith G
@eemom:
Wait just a fucking minute.
Earlier today you typed this about Nancy P :
What are you smoking?
RalfW
At least the NYT is reporting that Congressional Dems have not agreed to the plan. Might Obama get maneuvered by his left flank in Congress? Probably not.
And, oy, the estate tax, at $5 million threshold and 35% rate, what a bonanza for the rich!
jeffreyw
@Comrade Luke: Early days yet, but he is looking well.
Bucky R
My only comment “Any Democrat in 2012, but not the Republican Obama“. My new bumper sticker.
sb
@Nick L: Jesus, that was well put. Great read.
Nick
@Bob Loblaw:
you do realize the issue IS controversial and political.
penpen
@FlipYrWhig: I know, I should have more faith in the electorate’s intelligence/attention span, but can you blame me? Although I do like the idea of calling them “they must think you’re stupid” ads.
timb
@FlipYrWhig: See thay’s just it, no one had to vote for anything! No vote meant a return to fiscal sanity (and an unhappy me come tax time when I would have missed those middle class tax cuts). Still, the ones panicking here should have been the douchebag caucus
Corner Stone
@danimal: IMO, if Nancy came out of the meeting today, and President Obama went on to announce these terms, then the D caucus will vote for this.
And the R’s will also vote for this as it has the only thing in it they care about.
Yeah, they hate poor people. But they love rich people more than they hate the poor.
Zastrozzi
Wait a second, am I to understand that all of the tax cuts are to be extended for two years? That Obama didn’t manage to “de-couple” them? If so, I’m even more disappointed in this deal.
I was prepared to live with a two-year extension for the highest earners if that meant those below $250,000 saw a permanent extension of the current rates. At least that would have forced the GOP to defend tax cuts for the wealthy only come 2012.
Karen
@Mr. Poppinfresh:
Emigrating to Canada is something I’m very interested in. I have a B. S. in Communications. Was it hard for you to do?
Suck It Up!
@PurpleGirl:
Actually, I got a tier 4. Another big problem in NY, well in NYC is that there are hundreds of applicants for ONE job.
marcopolo
@lol: As I said, they had a several year run-up to figure out how to decouple them. Instead they waited until 30 days before they expired. Don’t the Democrats have any people out there, I think they are called strategists or political advisors or some such thing, who do any kind of long term planning? I am sure there are Dems on the House and Senate Finance committees back when these tax cuts were passed. You’d think they’d have a tickler file or something.
robertdsc-PowerBook
Thank you for failing us yet again, Mr. President.
Bob Loblaw
@Nick:
Yes. And I don’t look to take any solace, no matter how small, during a time of complete moral degeneracy in this country.
This country isn’t even center-right anymore. It’s purely and utterly reactionary, and it’s downright pathetic that we’ve fallen so far.
thefncrow
@Davis X. Machina: Nouriel Roubini liked the Payroll Tax Holiday so long as we covered the gap in payroll tax with the additional revenue generated by allowing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy to expire.
There’s nothing in this plan to cover the gap created by the payroll tax holiday, which is a bad, bad idea.
Suck It Up!
@Corner Stone:
A great man once said:
Gian
my concerning thought from under the bridge and chasing goats is about the payroll tax “holiday”
I really, really find it a dangerous place to go. you bet your boots it’s “stimulative” in the short term, but you bet your socks, it’ll be on the block for a permanant repeal, followed by attacks on the programs it supports.
(end the FICA tax! retirement Choice!)
I mean I could easily be wrong, and I do hope I am, but this is like letting the wolf get the nose in the door where social security lives.
eemom
@Keith G:
nothing, alas.
Those were unrelated concepts. I still think Pelosi’s got the only Pair and I’m disappointed in Obama.
The other thing was just a bit of throw away snark about John “caving” to Jane Hamsher.
Thanks for keeping me on my game, though.
@WyldPirate:
Look, shitforbrains, I’m the one who quoted Rude Pundit.
You got enough enemies in this schoolyard, and when I want to play whackatroll I don’t usually start at “primordial slime” level. So just toddle off and leave me be, k?
SIA
@jeffreyw: That sweet baby needs a home.
Brian J
@Martin:
If he gets reelected, or should I say when he gets reelected, it’d be great if he could do fundamental tax reform. I don’t have any particular plan in mind, although something along the lines of Robert Frank’s particular progressive consumption taxes would be nice. Hell, why not eliminate all or most corporate taxes, too, if we can get some emissions taxes instead?
Basically, there seems to be a wide range of options where we could actually make the system better (broadening the base, lowering rates, improving efficiency, and removing some of the potential for lobbying) and remove the issue as a political football for at least a few years. And wouldn’t that be great?
Martin
@Bob Loblaw:
I said minimum, not median. The difference between those two is $36,000 or nearly 300%. If I offer a job in the low 40s, full-time, growth prospects, with full health, vision, dental benefits and a fucking pension – I’m not allowed to ask for some basic qualifications? I’m not allowed to ask for that until I get up into the $50s? So it’s all service level from $14K to $52K and then I can start asking for someone to be able to do something meaningful?
If that’s the standard, this is why these people are so poorly skilled. They feel they’re entitled to a job without challenge until their salary hits the midpoint.
eemom
@timb:
that’s right. That is exactly why it is all so sad.
They didn’t have to “get” anything. They could have stood their fucking ground and let nature take its course.
Comrade Luke
@Martin:
You sound fed up.
Zach
The Dems could totally win this one on Christmas-time brinksmanship (the filibuster will be blamed for withholding going up on 1/1; GOP can’t wriggle out of that one). However, I don’t think there are even 50 votes in the Senate who would stick together to do so. Plenty of Dems who voted for the Obama plan and the Schumer compromise this week would much rather have the cuts extended for $250K+ as well.
Basically, if there was a simple majority that could coalesce around a single position, they would win as the clock ran out. “The tax bill was voted down” is a much simpler story than “the Democrats did not present a tax plan that could garner 60 votes.” If enough Dems would agree to only put Obama’s plan to a vote, you’d wind up with a much better compromise plan when the minority in opposition inevitably caved.
This is a lot different from the healthcare bill where there wasn’t some imminent problem that you’d be responsible for if you voted against a bill.
stuckinred
@Martin: “these people”
chopper
@LarsThorwald:
were you actually expecting a cost of living increase next year? you’re the first fed i know who actually thought it was going to happen.
Keith G
@eemom: Sorry I missed the snark.
“shitforbrains” Really?
Bob Loblaw
@Martin:
And I’m telling you that you’re getting exactly the applicants you should expect. Take it up with the educational system.
I’m sorry that there aren’t three hundred spanking new bachelors degree wielding youngsters infused with the spirit of the public service beating on your door for forty grand a year, minimal avenues for advancement, and a CALPERS pension that’s only going to be worth god knows how much.
We haven’t reached that step in the downward spiral yet, you just have to be patient. It’ll come.
Bob Loblaw
@Martin:
And I’m telling you that you’re getting exactly the applicants you should expect. Take it up with the educational system.
I’m sorry that there aren’t three hundred spanking new bachelors degree wielding youngsters infused with the spirit of the public service beating on your door for forty grand a year, minimal avenues for advancement, and a CALPERS pension that’s only going to be worth god knows how much.
We haven’t reached that step in the downward spiral yet, you just have to be patient. It’ll come.
sherifffruitfly
I just interviewed a guy for a a-bit-south-of-6-figures programming job today. He had an advanced degree in math and a couple years decent experience. He had been out of work for a year (when the company he worked for basically went under).
While we were talking, I asked about how tough the job market was. He just kind of sheepishly laughed and told me that he had 10 to 20 recruiters call him every week for the last year; he just didn’t see exactly the right job. I took that to mean he pretty much just felt like taking a year off, and that he can work pretty much any time he wants to.
There are several morals that can be drawn from this. One that occurred to me while reading pieces of this thread was: You have complete control over pretty much nothing. You do however have a lot of control over a lot of things. People in communications and other “I’m a special snowflake” majors may wish to consider this when choosing their majors. Being smart in an abysmally stupid country is a very, very valuable thing.
marcopolo
@stuckinred: You know, the people who clean your toilets at work, pick up your trash at the curbside, do those menial kinds of jobs that no one else wants to do so they don’t deserve a living wage or benefits because we aren’t really all that rich a country. “Those people.”
But then again he doesn’t even seem to be accounting for all the folks out there with college degrees working cash registers, delivering pizzas, or manning expresso machines. But then again the folks who have those jobs, even with their degrees, probably feel luckier than the folks that don’t have them.
eemom
@Keith G:
oldeez but goodeez
WyldPirate
@eemom:
No, I think I’ll fuck with you relentlessly, particularly when you belch your smelly cud all over as you did above you, obnoxious cow.
PurpleGirl
@Suck It Up!: I was dropped off and told it ended with Tier 3 and that statewide unemployment had dropped .2% so… argh.
chaseyourtail
@Bob Loblaw: Yes, it’s pretty damn good compared to a year of nothing.
IronyAbounds
Nate Silver has a good discussion of the Dems’ options. As you can see, it isn’t the open and shut case that liberals would like it to be, and I think the problem has only been exacerbated by delaying any solution to the situation until the lame duck session.
SIA
No need. Looks like we have plenty of representatives of the GOS here already.
Mr. Poppinfresh
@Karen: A Bachelors and a job offer are really all you need. Don’t get me wrong, there’s paperwork to be done and hoops to jump through, but when it’s said and done you have free health insurance and whatnot.
IronyAbounds
@PurpleGirl:
Yes, but I’m sure you’re quite thankful you’re not a federal employee who has to bear the burden of not getting a 1.4% raise for next year. Thank your lucky stars!
Peter
@Martin Gifford: Is this the most ridiculous comment in this post? I think it may, and WyldPirate’s sitting over there playing Nostrodamus.
Stillwater
@FlipYrWhig: I’m very risk-averse and tend to focus on downside risks. Here I see immense downside and not much upside
I’m not gonna argue with this – it’s a reasonable position to take. All I will say is that playing the ‘avoid downside risk’ game leads inevitably to downward political curve. Which we’ve seen steadily since post-Reagan. (Hell, maybe even post Nixon.) I don’t have a simple solution for this. But what your advocating here is rational in the short term, but seems highly irrational long term.
PurpleGirl
@IronyAbounds: I hope that was snark. Because, I’m out of work 2 years now, I’ve spent my savings and 403(b) money and contemplating applying for welfare. Then according to the rules, NYC will try to find me a job.
Bernard
yes, it is mighty interesting that the Democrats carry the water for the Republicans time after time after time….
i was just waiting to see what the Democrats would give for something they didn’t have to. The Democ-rats really know how to do the Republicans one better. after all, we know the Republicans only care about the Rich. The Democ-rats actively do things that make the Republicans shine.
the Bully knows what the Nerd will do. The Bully ain’t stupid. and gets the Nerd to do his dirty work.
i’m past the point of seeing any difference between the Republicans and the Democ-rats other than how well the Republicans “own” the Democ-rats. Respecting the devil is one thing, doing the devil’s dirty work is another indeed.
wonder if there will be a kitchen sink left in 2 years.
Comrade Luke
@IronyAbounds:
From the article:
Mission accomplished.
ETA: I agree, postponing the vote made the problem worse. Question is: why did they do it?
Davis X. Machina
@IronyAbounds: You’re wasting your time with reasoned arguments, as is Nate.
This is Son of Public Option. No one is listening. Everyone is posturing.
Martin
@stuckinred: Yeah, good call there. I’m letting this get the better of me. I’ll put some more beer in the refrigerator. I need it tonight.
@Comrade Luke:
I am a bit fed up. I know this isn’t an awesome job. For the area, the salary is pretty weak. But it’s a solid position and it has growth potential. It’s not a horrible job – desk work, 8-5, get your own office. Nice coworkers, low stress. It shouldn’t be this hard to find someone qualified in this market.
It’s not that I haven’t had applicants, I’ve had dozens and dozens. I’m totally open to candidates. 60 year old Muslim transsexual in a wheelchair? No problem so long as you’re qualified. But I can’t even find that person.
I’m tired of working nights and weekends. I just want to give a good candidate a job. I’ve never had so much trouble filling a position before – let alone in a county with a 9% unemployment rate and a high education rate.
@Bob Loblaw: Not CALPERS.
Rick Taylor
I’m guessing that Republicans will end up turning down the deal anyway; they’ll balk at extending unemployment insurance.
Comrade Luke
@Davis X. Machina:
Did you even read the article?
stuckinred
@Bernard:
Times are hard
You’re afraid to pay the fee
So you find yourself somebody
Who can do the job for free
When you need a bit of lovin’
Cause your man is out of town
That’s the time you get me runnin’
And you know I’ll be around
I’m a fool to do your dirty work
Oh yeah
I don’t wanna do your dirty work
No more
I’m a fool to do your dirty work
Oh yeah
stuckinred
@Martin: Hang in there man.
Nellcote
Is it a common expectation out there in the working world that you get a raise EVERY year? I don’t know anyone that gets a raise every year.
Lisa
This country is getting what it so richly deserves. We have a “don’t touch my shit but fix the budget please” mentality. We want healthcare, we want a social safety net, yet we nod and say “this guy makes good sense” when we hear some rightwing blowhard talking shit about how “the other” is taking our stuff and sending it back to Mexico/Africa/Muslimland and how lowering taxes for the wealthy will somehow make them really nice and will maybe make them consider hiring our dirty unwashed asses. Sure, the government is being run by idiots, full stop. But who hired all of those idiots?
Davis X. Machina
@Comrade Luke: Yes. The Democrats are screwed because there aren’t enough people who would embrace letting all the Bush tax cuts expire as a second-best option.
There aren’t enough of us. Again. Which is why I called it ‘Public option 2.0’. This-or-nothing doesn’t deliver the required majority, again.
eemom
@WyldPirate:
you’re a sick little fuck, aren’t you?
whatever. Fuck away. It’s your little spit, sweat and semen spattered keyboard.
Martin
@Rick Taylor: This might be the long sought bipartisan agreement – half of each caucus hates it but it squeaks by in spite of that.
But it doesn’t sound like either party has their folks in line. 1/3 of the Dem House caucus owes Obama or Pelosi nothing – they’re heading home for good in 2 weeks.
I’ll believe this deal when I see it.
IronyAbounds
@PurpleGirl: Sorry, I thought the snark was too obvious to be misconstrued as having less than complete sympathy for your position. My point being that there are multitudes in your position facing dire consequences and yet we have federal employees up in arms because they don’t get their precious 1.4% raise next year. Hell, I’m making about 13% less than last year, probably won’t be able to put anything in my retirement account, and have to deal with double digit increases in my health insurance every year (even with an HSA). My wife is a public school teacher who had to take a 4% cut this year. All in all though, we make good money and I count us a fortunate ones. My heart goes out to you and others in your situation.
lacp
@Gian: Cutting payroll taxes is probably the most stimulative type of tax-cutting, as the money goes mostly to people who are going to spend it, and I like the fact that Roubini supported it (with appropriate caveats) as he seems to have been right on an awful lot of things.
Which leads my cynical little mind to wonder: why are the Republicans going along with this?
Suck It Up!
@PurpleGirl:
yeah. it was snark. I’m more concerned about people who’ve had their wages frozen at zero
IronyAbounds
@Comrade Luke:
And since the Republicans were able to get their first desired outcome and the Dems only their second (even though it was better than the Dems’ third choice), it must be a bad deal? All Nate was saying was that the Republicans were dealt better cards and while the Dems might have bluffed and won, they also might have bluffed and fallen into the Grand Canyon. I think had all the tax cuts expired, and middle class taxpayers woken up to smaller paychecks come January, they wouldn’t have blamed the GOP, not with the press we have in this country.
As for why the tax issue was kicked down the road, I have no idea. I thought for sure something would have been worked out before the end of last year, in order to avoid the year with no estate tax. I honestly think they could have gotten the estate tax we’re talking about now combined with better overall rates than we will have now if action had been taken at that time. Then again, I think Ron Wyden’s tax plan is better yet (as was his health care plan) but for some reason Wyden’s intelligent ideas get great praise from obscure experts in the field and somehow never see the light of day in Congress. Hmmmm, it wouldn’t be that they don’t benefit the powerful funding sources of the folks in Congress would it?
Davis X. Machina
@lacp: It looks, if you squint just right, like we’re de-funding what the Catfood Commission has been trying to persuade us is an SS system that’s already crocked. The GOP didn’t accede to this because they’re nice people. It is, however, except for the UI extension, the only really stimulative part of the package. (Multiplier in the 1.5 range IIRC.)
It’s $200-$300 billion of additional aggregate demand, depending on how you calcucate the multipliers.
Until MV no longer equals PQ, I’m not worrying about much else besides aggregate demand.
PurpleGirl
@IronyAbounds: That’s why asked if the comment was snark. Thank you for your thoughts.
Sly
I’d agree, with the caveat that its nothing more than a stop-gap solution with no conceivable end-game scenario that looks good. Not that I think there is really any other option that won’t blow up, but its important to recognize where this is going (i.e. nowhere). Nothing is going to happen in terms of fiscal stimulus for the next two years, so expanding the unemployment safety net for as long as possible is the barest of essentials.
Having said all that, I don’t think this will pass the House. Not without a great deal of difficulty, anyway.
At least you can identify the source. A great many of our countrymen have been having some difficulty with that part.
If you wonder why a particular politician is a venal asshole, its probably because a majority of their constituents are venal assholes.
Martin
@stuckinred: Thanks. Met a big deadline today. That should help. Beer will help more, though.
Nick L
@JC:
We’re basically on the same page. My point is that the political crisis isn’t just some partisan squabbling in Washington – although the red/blue divide is overstated, the Christian/secular and urban/rural divide really isn’t.
45% of voters in 2008 voted for McCain/Palin. Now, look, I can see why a right-winger, or even right-of-center moderate, could find McCain appealing. But even the most dimwitted of partisans must surely concede that McCain is somewhat likely to die by 2013 – at least more so than most presidential candidates. So 45% of the country was okay with the possibility that Sarah Palin could become the president, at a time of great economic and geopolitical turmoil. She has a good shot at being the 2012 Republican nominee. The point: 40% of the country doesn’t give a flying shit about good policy, about helping the poor, about working together, or anything beyond culture bomb-slinging and voting for the candidate which most superficially matches their narrow identification of what an American is. See the 2004 election.
I personally take offense to the claim that today’s Tea Partypublicans are neo-Confederate – it’s not just inflammatory, it’s inaccurate. They’re really more American fundamentalists, deeply loyal to their reactionary utopian ideal of America. But their praise of MLK, Lincoln, etc. isn’t just a heavy-handed way to avoid charges of racism – as fellow proud Americans, they view the achievements of great Americans as part of their heritage. These are not Confederates, who sought to abandon the idea of the United States.
At the same time, those who make the comparison have a good point – the radical anti-federalism, race-baiting, hints at armed insurrection and secession, etc., all indicate that the Southern Strategy snapped. Fuelled by culture warfare, the idea of exploiting old Confederate grievance for political gain redefined Republican politics entirely in terms of grievance. It’s not that Democrats are Yankees and Republicans are Confederates, but the battle lines are remarkably similar. This too is part of our heritage, and right now we’re experiencing the biggest inflammation of these tensions in well over 100 years.
Of course it’s worth pointing out the real problem: clearly 95% of GOP bigshots aren’t actually buying into this nonsense. But their interest isn’t in the good of the country – these are the same bastards who impeached Bill Clinton and stole the 2000 election. Nobody talks about them anymore, but it’s clear that these two events did profound damage to the institutions of our democracy. Still, this isn’t entirely due to current GOP bigshots – America’s dysfunctional politics is, at its root, a demographic and cultural problem.
In a way, it’s the paramount challenge of the Obama presidency. America won’t dissolve, but it could stay mired in sectarianism, plutonomy, and corruption. Can Obama sufficiently unite the country in order to move us forward?
Fuck, Republicans were easier in 1995.
jinxtigr
@Suck It Up!:
VAMPIRES and victims are interconnected. For a little while, anyway.
Stillwater
@eemom: Look, shitforbrains,
Ah yes. Another edition of “Eemom Responds”. I know it’s a bit overdone at this point, but it’s still funny as hell.
Keith G
@lacp:
Which sounds good unless you are working for near minimum wage @ 40 hours per week …giving you and additional ~$3.50 per month. One gallon of milk per month.
Very stimulating.
Take that, Lars.
Edit: 300… Whoot!!
Davis X. Machina
@Keith G: Aggregate demand is aggregate. Quantity has a quality all its own….
James Hare
@LarsThorwald:
Some of us have had our pay frozen for several years. You won’t find much sympathy here.
ruemara
@MikeMc:
Would you happen to have a link at all? I never pay attention to chuck todd, so I don’t know where to look.
On the while ‘deal’ thing, I’m torn. I won’t lie. My family needs it, plus a cramdown if we are to survive. I don’t want to give a damn thing to the rich, since they certainly haven’t given me a thing. But, the extension length, the payroll tax holiday-better, smarter people than me agree that it has a stimulative effect. We’re both good at our jobs but there’s such a glut of workers in the market that only I am partially employed. More job opening means more of a chance that this application, this interview will mean someone has a decent job. I know most of the blogosphere don’t want to hear it, but I have to say it, if we get UI extension, thank god for Obama. I can be disappointed at the rich later, I’ve been planning to lose my house for a while; getting to keep it for a bit longer is priceless to me. And fuck Congress Democrats. A weaker, more lily livered, feckless bunch has never squat in those seats ever before.
@PurpleGirl:
threads too long to see if this has been answered but yes, except for the 99. It may be time to launch a squad of calls to demand inclusion.
NR
Question for those who support this deal: What happens in 13 months?
Do you really think the economy is going to miraculously start generating the hundreds of thousands of new jobs per month that it needs to in order to make a dent in unemployment?
So what do the Dems give up in 13 months to get another extension?
JC
Oh, another thing. You know that whole ‘don’t increase the deficit’ thing?
The increase to the deficit over the 2 years is estimated to be $900 billion.
This is less than a week after the Deficit Commission report.
How silly is this? If this wasn’t going to hit Social Security, Medicare at some point, reinforce a reckless irresponsible tax structure in the United States, this last two weeks would be funny.
Davis X. Machina
@NR: I don’t know. So let’s not have any extension at all. Let the unemployed eat intellectual consistency.
Ruckus
@AnnaN:
Only one’s sacrificing? There have been a number of fed employees posting here for some time and today is the first day I noticed any of them complaining because they didn’t get a COL raise. I haven’t taken any money out of my business for 3 fucking years, in fact I have lost money for the last 3 years. Many people I know with very small businesses have closed their doors. As business owners we are not eligible for UI. So if I close the doors I have to join the multitudes and get one of those job things, otherwise I starve and have no place to live.
And you are the only one’s sacrificing? I call bullshit. Yes there are some in this country making a killing. The masters of the universe are getting record bonuses this year. You aren’t getting a COL. I and many, many like me are clearly getting fucked. Not the same thing. Not at all.
mai naem
Fuck Obama. He truly is the suckiest of sucky negotiators. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. He didn’t get DADT and START out of this? Are you fucking real? Seriously, he can go fuck himself. This mofo let the Senate waste months and months on HCR but found time to let Reid know to keep Lieberprick on as DHS chair? They had time for all this but between Reid and Obama they couldn’t hit a two pointer if they were one foot away from the basket.
The Dangerman
@PurpleGirl:
Fellow 99er here; people that haven’t experienced it don’t know how bad it is out there (and I’m very well educated, though with a history of some bad luck with firms going bust). Oh, and I live in CA, which is well and truly fucked. I hope NY is better.
Keith G
@Davis X. Machina: Any idea what the aggregate demand curve for space in a homeless shelter looks like?
tomvox1
@LarsThorwald:
I agree: This deal looks extraordinarily bad in light of the federal worker wage freeze. Without that factored in, it would just be typical albeit disappointing tax cowardice with some trade-offs that might maybe hopefully stimulate the economy. But when you add the preemptive concession on the wage freeze, which is so fucking stupid on so many levels, its like 11th dimensional chess played in Bizarro World against Nietsnie Trebla.
Who is really advising Obama on these issues, the ghost of Dick Fucking Darman? A voice in his head longing to be thought of as a Very Serious Person who understands that the Defecit is The Worstest Thing EVAH…except when talking about tax cuts for the extremely well off?
Tylenol my ass–hand me the absinthe.
fasteddie9318
@SIA:
If it doesn’t include the phrase, “fuck all you motherfucking pieces of shit,” then frankly I’m not interested.
JC
Nick L,
Another good comment. I think we are the pass the point of a ‘uniter not a divider’, thing, at this point. The Republicans are now exploiting expertly this (very commendable) trait in Obama.
Another word for what you are talking about, is tribalism. My tribe/your tribe.
but this has always been around. The plutocrats FUSED with the US’s conserative tribalism – that’s new.
As you point out, you have one party that is completely amoral, using that tribalism, simply to gain the levers of power, without any regard for the consequences of what they propose, while having the loudest megaphone. As Cheney said “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.”
And neither does responsible governing, I suppose.
NR
@Davis X. Machina: I’ll ask again: What happens in 13 months? Do you think the economy will be in such great shape then? Even if it starts generating hundreds of thousands of jobs tomorrow (a highly unlikely scenario), it will take years before unemployment truly comes down. And also keep in mind that the longer someone is unemployed, the longer it takes them to find work and the more support, retraining, etc. they need. And there are millions of people right now who have been unemployed for so long that they will need massive support which, in the face of state and local budget cuts, they are highly unlikely to get (and by the way, this deal doesn’t include any benefits for these people).
So, again: What do the Dems give up in 13 months to get another extension? What do they have left to give up?
At some point, it has to become about creating a long-term pushback against right-wing narratives. The Republicans keep moving to the right because there is no counterbalance, the Democrats follow them, and it’s killing our country.
ruemara
@Martin: Uh, I have skills. I like your ideas and would like to apply for your job.
Davis X. Machina
@Keith G: I’m guessing it’s inversely proportional to general economic activity, which is what we presently don’t have enough of, and which is what I’m prepared to pay almost any political price to get.
The payroll tax holiday puts additional money into the hands of people, and since it’s a payroll tax holiday it doesn’t put additional money into the hands of people who will stuff mattresses with it.
Are there better ways to do it. Yes. Are there better ways to do it that you can get through this Congress? I’m listening.
Suck It Up!
@mai naem:
2 GOP Sen. have promised to give a yes vote on DADT IF the tax cut issue is settled. This tax deal may not be the final deal and there may not be any deal at all. If there is no deal at all then there is no DADT repeal. Don’t put all the blame on Obama. this is what happens when Democrats don’t have a plan. Obama told them what he preferred. They didn’t do the (“middle class” cut only) vote before the midterms and it failed to get through the senate on Saturday. So now they have to compromise.
Davis X. Machina
@NR: Do you want the pushback and the 13 weeks? Or just the pushback? Because rejecting the package gets you just the pushback.
“Let them eat an improved narrative” must sound better in French.
JC
Tomvox1,
I wonder that too. The Chief of Staff is now Pete Rouse, who learned his ropes kowtowing to the Republicans with Daschle. It may turn out to be that, despite Rahm’s corporatism and disdain for lefties, we will miss someone who hates Republicans with the heat of 1000 suns.
Corner Stone
I’m beginning to loathe Kent Conrad on the level with Nelson, Baucus and Lieberman.
Fucking ND Senators, how do they work?
NR
@Davis X. Machina: Giving the Republicans what they want is not pushing back. It’s the opposite.
blahblahgurgleblegblah
@nancydarling:
And note that the Republican Party was the _minority_ in the senate at that time! Yet Obama, who actually held a 60 seat senate supermajority for a time, couldn’t get a damn thing done! I’m sorry, but there’s no reason to assume that Democrats are “spineless”, “cowards”, or “incompetent”. No, they are enacting the very policies they support. And they do so because their real patrons are not individual citizens, or real constituents, any longer.
Davis X. Machina
@NR: Pick. Pushback or UI extension. There is no tertium quid, not right now. Do you want the issue, or the extension?
Corner Stone
@Keith G: Ooh! Ooh! I know! Can I answer this!?
mai naem
@Suck It Up!: And you trust the Maine Twins? Really? For what reason exactly? Do they have some sort of long history of actually doing what they say?
@Corner Stone: I used to like Kent Conrad because he always seemed like such a straight shooter. No more. This prick got a better Countrywide deal than Dodd did and he’s always in line to screw the poor and middle class.
NR
@Davis X. Machina: The Republicans have demonstrated over and over again that they will continue fucking over the country unless they are pushed back against. The current situation is a fucked-up mess, to be sure, but the only way I see that anything will change for the better is if Democrats start standing up for the principles that make them, you know, Democrats.
Davis X. Machina
@NR: That’s not a choice. Do you want the issue, or the extension of UI?
The Dangerman
@Suck It Up!:
For reasons that escape me; best guess is to protect the Blue Dogs and … that worked out so very well.
jwb
@Davis X. Machina: Actually, it’s look more like Son of TARP.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
Serious question: what academic/career advice would you give a 23 year old guy (not me, my little brother 15 years my junior) who blew a golden opportunity in undergrad (he flunked out of WVU and nearly went to jail for low-level drug dealing) and now finds himself living at home going to community college?
He has straightened up and appears to be flying right and is a handful of classes short of an associates. He plans to transfer to a 4 year college to complete his remaining undergraduate.
He’s a smart engaging guy who made some dumb choices in college and wants to teach. We had a long chat tonight and he needs to get out of the house (in VA.) and I am going to help him relocate here (Houston)
I am good with the career advice stuff for people looking to do what I do, but his interests lie elsewhere and I am sort of struggling with what to tell him. Martin’s posts about his open position have led to this ramble…
lacp
@NR: Perhaps Democratic elected officials have different principles than their rank and file. Like, say, Republican principles.
Emerald
Well it looks like everybody’s unhappy. Here’s a commenter from RedState:
Frankly, I agree. Obama has rolled the Republicans from the start. They had the votes to bring this entire country to a halt, and Obama kept peeling off just enough Republican votes to get a boatload o’ stuff passed.
And really, this is a pretty good deal for our side, because it keeps stimulatin’ that economy. In 2012 that’s the only thing that will matter (unless Sistah Sarah is the R nominee, of course–that will matter too). Those payroll tax cuts and the UE benefits will help lots (although I wish they’d saved the 99ers).
The Rs could have really hurt the economy if they’d just let the whole package expire and blamed it on Obama. The hit to the middle class would have helped grind things back to a halt.
So, this was the smart move. Politically, short term: no. Long term: oh yeah.
Ed Drone
@Keith G:
Yes — if you’re Civil Service, not a political appointee nor a contractor, you’re covered by the Hatch Act. So a “schedule C” can phone bank, make speeches, etc., but a “GS” can’t.
Ed
Keith G
@Davis X. Machina: No matter. I have given up on this episode. I am just bummed that this last go round ended up being pretty antithetical to the notion that we will addressing the underlying dysfunctional economic relationships in our society.
It was a bit of a long shot, but I had hope at one time that this Democratic leader had the willingness, ability, and desire to begin the conversation. It’s a shame since these types of problems tend to ferment with time.
Keith G
@Corner Stone: Do you have your graph paper and no. 2 pencils handy?
Also, great fucking weather, yes?
Bob Loblaw
I think we’re all forgetting the most important question which is what does blackwaterdog think of the deal?
Best deal ever or bestest deal ever?
The Dangerman
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine:
How flexible is he regarding location? I’ve been told there are lots of opportunities to teach overseas.
This may sound trite, but there is truth to making your vocation and avocation the same. Biggest mistake I ever made (circa 1980) was not seeing where computer games were going (confession time: I played Space Invaders … loved it). When I left UCLA, I was passionate about green matters; went into aerospace instead (as did almost all my Friends, almost all of whom have also left aerospace; we did some seriously cool shit, but that was a different time in that world).
I’m late to this part of the thread and had to go back and look; have to confess to being curious about where Martin is located ;-)
jwb
@Bob Loblaw: I see what you did there. Take that right back to the thread where it belongs.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Keith G: I say this over and over, but no president can do that kind of transformation when the other party is unwilling to govern. The one other time we had this kind of arrangement led to a war.
Something probably could have been done had more Democrats been elected in November. The will of the Republican party would have had to have been broken. The lesson they learned, though, was that all they have to do is keep obstructing and they will regain power.
eemom
@Stillwater:
gaze unto the depths and witness thy reflection, “stillwater.”
http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/317900.html
and yet beware, lest thou drown in thine own asshole.
Corner Stone
@Keith G: I’m plotting points as we speak. Of course, it gets kind of easy to graph when the answer is a line on the vertical axis.
And yeah, I am loving these crisp mornings and easy loving days.
Did I just say easy loving? Yes. Yes, I did.
Emerald
Well it looks like everybody’s unhappy. Here’s a commenter from RedState:
and
Frankly, I agree. Obama has rolled the Republicans from the start. They had the votes to bring this entire country to a halt, and Obama kept peeling off just enough Republican votes to get a boatload o’ stuff passed.
And really, this is a pretty good deal for our side, because it keeps stimulatin’ that economy. In 2012 that’s the only thing that will matter (unless Sistah Sarah is the R nominee, of course—that will matter too). Those payroll tax cuts and the UE benefits will help lots (although I wish they’d saved the 99ers).
The Rs could have really hurt the economy if they’d just let the whole package expire and blamed it on Obama. The hit to the middle class would have helped grind things back to a halt.
So, was this the smart move? Politically, short term: no. Long term: oh yeah.
Jules
I’m not sure what choice the President really had once he was unable to get the idiots in Congress to deal with the tax exemptions before the Nov. elections.
That is what he talked about for months (if you were paying attention) with not much support from Congress.
Now we are left to make deals.
But OMG! it is all Obama’s fault!!!111!!!!!
Nick
@NR:
American regret electing a Republican House
Brian J
@The Dangerman:
I wish I were as confident as you in his reelection chances, but I am not. I’m not really down on them, unless unemployment becomes significantly worse, but I figure that he’ll have a tougher time on his hands than he otherwise would if things don’t start to seem better.
I don’t think things have to improve that dramatically for him to be in a much safer spot–or rather, I don’t think they will. It seems very unlikely unemployment will be in a spot that’s usually considered acceptable, like five percent, but I figure that if there’s some downward trajectory, he’ll be fine. Call me crazy, but I think people will be a lot more forvgiving if they sense we are finally out of the woods, even if the recovery hasn’t reached them just yet. It can’t arrive that late in the game to help him, yet he could probably see little improvement through all of 2011, but, in February of 2012, start to see noticeable improvement and still end up fine.
As far as the Republican candidates go, you’re right that none of them appear to be anything special. People like Mitch Daniels aren’t awful, but they aren’t exciting, so who knows if they’d get the nomination. I just worry that that the Republicans would have the good sense to nominate someone unlike Palin or Gingrich and be blessed with an economic situation that sucks so that they could win by simply not being Democrats.
And if it’s someone like Palin or Gingrich, Obama could probably win reelection today. It might not be as big of a win as last time, but it’d be still be a win.
Karen
Unemployment payments are the difference between families being able to afford their homes or apartments and being in a shelter. If you’re a single mother that’s especially so. And as for those people who work for the Fed who are upset about their pay wages being frozen no offense but so are most of the employees in the country. I haven’t gotten a raise in 4 years but with my RA and the flex time I get, I know I’m blessed to have a job, let alone one who actually cares about their employees. I know from when my husband was working for the Fed that you get great health insurance and other benefits that people who don’t have health insurance would kill for.
I don’t care what the rich people get if it means people who are unemployed don’t have to worry about sinking.
Why does it have to be a zero sum game? The rich people will always benefit regardless. I used to wonder why people voted for issues like low taxes for the upper income bracket. I read somewhere that they vote for low taxes and against things that would benefit them like fair wages for the middle class because they aspired to be rich. To vote for fair wages was to admit to themselves that aspiration was unlikely and just because they worked at the country club that didn’t mean they’d ever be able to join it.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Emerald: That’s great. If I see an open thread at GOS, I’m gonna post the second one. I want to see a few heads explode. Preferably one of the FPers over there.
FlipYrWhig
@blahblahgurgleblegblah:
First of all, he got many things done.
Second of all, Republicans use the filibuster to an unprecedented degree. Why do they get away with it? Because they don’t care what anyone thinks, and they realized that no one really pays attention anyway, so they might as well be the biggest dicks possible. But Democrats _always_ care _very much_ what people think. And, accordingly, some Democrats on the center-right want desperately to show that they’re not like the other Democrats doing Bad Things, so they don’t hang together. Thus Republicans filibuster with impunity, which any party _could_ have done at any point in the past however many years, but it used to be the case that they feared the repercussions. And Democrats _don’t_ and _won’t_ filibuster with impunity, because they still fear the repercussions. Basically Democrats still act as though bound by an old gentleman’s agreement, and Republicans finally gave up on that in 2008.
That’s why the thing Democrats need more than anything else is a non-whiny message about Republican obstructionism. It’s not just that Republicans are standing up for what they believe, it’s not that Democrats won’t compromise, listen all y’all it’s sabotage. That _has_ to be hammered, or we’re totally sunk, because nothing will ever, ever get accomplished in the American government.
The Dangerman
@Emerald:
If Kossacks are unhappy and RedStaters are unhappy, this may be the sign of a net win overall, or, perhaps, just the best of a shitty set of alternatives.
PurpleGirl
@Ruckus: I’m sorry you’re having trouble with your business. I have friends who work (have worked) as independent contractors/freelancers and their work has dried up too. I feel that we need to review the safety net so that freelancers and real small business owners have a safety net. (Real small business owners means someone who is a single proprietor, or maybe has a few employees, not a business which is owned by one or two people privately and nets millions. I can’t name an example right now but I saw the point made a few weeks ago about large companies that got counted as “small businesses” because of the ownership arrangements.)
Corner Stone
There has to be some kind of law, equivalent to Godwin’s Law.
Something like:
After a compromise has been made by Obama, the longer a thread runs the closer it reaches 1:1 excuses to comments.
I can’t decide if I should call it Nick’s Law or FlipYrWhig’s Law.
sb
@Emerald:
I think you have it backwards. I think short term this has some benefit but long term the Republicans will claim two years from now that they cut the taxes while the deficit–which I think we can agree will still be there–will be seen as Obama’s responsibility.
That said, I don’t have the first damn clue what I would have done here. Had he held firm and let the cuts expire, millions who rely on jobless benefits would have done without. Had that happened, it would have been a helluva debate, I’m sure, but that’s small solace to a hungry person.
Keith G
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Oh, I wasn’t expecting Barak to change the socio-economic landscape. No one administration can.
But someone needs to start the serious education process.
timb
@blahblahgurgleblegblah: he got the biggest and best entitlement program since the Great Society through Congress or did you forget
Corner Stone
@Nick:
No you fucking simp. That is not how “capitalism” is supposed to work.
Corner Stone
@timb: Medicare Part D? That was under GWB.
Corner Stone
@Davis X. Machina: Yes, these were the only two options.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
.
.
I don’t understand why they made President Obama capitulate to terrorists with the latest Overton Window Compromise.
They must surely know that the next
capitulationcompromise will be even worse..
.
Keith G
@Corner Stone: Corner Stone’s Constant
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@The Dangerman: He is pretty unattached to location I think. He needs a change of venue and the move to Houston will serve that purpose. No foreign language skills to speak of so that could close off a lot of the overseas options…
Corner Stone
@Keith G: If I have a Law named after me I want it to have something to do with honest to God actual boobs. Not the fools who keep killing themselves to explain away simple outcomes here.
Corner Stone
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine: He’s in for a tough time in Houston. With no work history and no contacts he’s going to find it a rough go.
Texas in general is where CA was 3 years ago.
Rick Perry hid his nasty shit for a long time but that debt secret is about to come out. And when it does a lot of formerly good jobs are going to go away.
WyldPirate
@JC:
Yes. Heaven forbid we cast any blame where the buck might stop.
Must. find. subordinate. scapegoat.
The Dangerman
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine:
True, but a lot of what I hear is teaching in English (and teaching English in the process). Korea is supposed to be a hot area; actually, Asia, in general. I taught in China BRIEFLY and I don’t speak Chinese very well.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
@Corner Stone:
.
.
You might name it after Blackwaterdog, who might need some cheering up.
.
.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@Corner Stone: Well, he’s got contacts. I live here and have been in working in Houston for 10 years (also spent a couple of years in Austin).
I share your concerns about the economy though especially since we elected a pretty grim slate of Republicans in the last election who have no interest in helping the have nots.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@The Dangerman: I heard have that too come to think of it. They want people to improve their proficiency and you don;t necessarily need to know the native language to teach that.
Corner Stone
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine: I understood he doesn’t want to do whatever it is you do…which I am assuming is pulling smaller rail cars from place to place.
With NASA going down, and IT taking a real hit in investment, there just aren’t a lot of growth areas in H-Town at the moment.
Energy is all over the fucking place.
WyldPirate
@Keith G:
Food 101: Foraging for meals in Garbage Bins and Dumps
Hygiene 101: Field expedient tampon manufacture from vegetation
Business 101: Subsisting in a barter economy
recreation 101: constuction of musical instruments and other entertainment devices from discarded bones
Chuck Butcher
A couple blocks from the house I’m working on is a nice deli/cafe. They have a brick oven. A couple days ago I had a hot steak sandwich and tonight a pizza. Nice and actually different – don’t know enough about it to know why, BoB.
Starving former workers and breaking the backs of those just making it with taxes is not a good place to make a stand.
In this closing month the business seems to gotten to turning a profit. Minimum wage would be a huge jump for the same hours. Truthfully, I haven’t seen anyone act like they were jealous of me – particularly not in the snow and ice.
Congress has had four years to deal with the Bush Tax Debacle, they chose not to until it was too late and got themselves hoist by their own petard. I’m pretty tired of the spectacle of governance malpractice by all Parties. We have not even started to pay the costs for the last couple years, the last decade, or the last three decades. This sucks, it is going to suck a lot worse and all I can guess is that Americans may get the outcomes of the government they deserve.
The Dangerman
@Corner Stone:
OK, that got a belly laugh. Well played.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@Corner Stone: I am in express engine, not some little branch line engine! Need to change my handle, my kids don’t even watch Thomas anymore…
Energy remains strong as ever, but the city seems a lot more diversified than it was back in the 90’s and certainly the 80’s – at least that is what people tell me…
WyldPirate
@Uncle Clarence Thomas:
she probably has some good captions for the pics from Obama’s news conference today…
Strong and Resolute:
**picture of Obama**
Take that mean republicans:
**picture of Obama***
What a gorgeous jawline…
**picture of Obama***
Undeterred:
***picture of Obama***
Look at that gorgeous smile! Sigh…
***picture of Obama****
Mark S.
@Corner Stone:
Just wait until Congress adjourns without repealing DADT. This place is going to be a lot of fun.
Chuck Butcher
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine:
Well, I’m in construction and the above post might be informative about that sort of idea.
Just Some Fuckhead
Great, happy the ominous deficit talk is behind us since we can apparently afford trillions in tax cuts.
I’ll be voting Green in 2012. Republicans and Democrats have proven they can’t govern.
Kenneth
The collapse of the USA is coming, this deal which is tax cuts for the rich for infinity seals the deal.
Get ready to live in conditions reminiscent of 1990s post-Soviet Russia by 2020.
We’re fucked.
Glidwrith
@lacp: Because the “Making Work Pay” tax cut goes bye-bye and the 2% payroll holiday cut is worth only a third of it. In other words, workers get screwed with a higher tax rate.
Cacti
Hmmm…
My 61 year old father, who has been out of work since 2009 will get to keep his unemployment benefits, and not have to worry about losing his house.
Okay, so what am I supposed to be mad at Obama about again?
Matt
In all honesty, if they’re going to extend all of these they absolutely need to include raising the debt ceiling. God knows what will happen with the next Congress and that really could cause an economic cataclysm. And the estate tax portion is inexcusable and entirely unnecessary.
WyldPirate
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Damn, JSF. We just had some bipartisanship agreement, baby! Happy Days are Here Again!
There’s gonna be jobs for everyone, a chicken in every pot and Testarossas in every driveway. The rich are going to rain all of this stuff plus showers of gold down on us all!
Chuck Butcher
I have this funny memory, it was this space of time when everyone was in a tizzy about a recount getting this Fanken guy in and 60 and….
Sorry, drifted off for a moment there
Nick
@Cacti:
That he didn’t blow up the deal and force tax cuts to expire “on principle”
Your dad would’ve understood, right?
Chuck Butcher
@WyldPirate:
Tinkle down economics?
NR
@Cacti: If he’s been out of work since 2009, he won’t get to keep them for very much longer.
WyldPirate
@Chuck Butcher:
haha. good one.
Kick the Poors. The most popular party game amongst the Hamptons summer party goers of 2011. They rent actual people from Newark, have them curl into balls, and practice bludgeoning them with gold-encrusted boots for a generous $5 bucks an hour!
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: I have this thing I noticed that every time something bad happens, there’s a guy shows up and struts around about how it’s bad, pretending to be constructive but basically being annoying, repetitive, and never, ever, going away. I’m think he may have been the inspiration for “Clippy, the MS Office Paper Clip.” You may know him.
Cain
@sb:
Maybe the poor, and the jobless should have gotten off their asses and voted so they wouldn’t be in this position. It really pisses me off when the poor doesn’t bother voting then gets stuck between a rock and a hard place.
cain
NR
@Nick: Right. We need to cut taxes for millionaires and freeze pay for federal workers. Because we’ve got to balance the budget!
junebug
Just saying, I now have two reasons to turn off the PBS New Hour: any mention of teabaggers and having Jane firedoglake.com on.
TV goes off or to another channel.
THIS just sucks.
WyldPirate
@Matt:
Here is exactly what is going to happen.
The Rethugs are going to scream bloody murder that something has to be done about the extra 450BN/year hole President
Immaculate PerfectionObama and the Dems frittered away in the budget by their heinous “tax and spend” policies of the past Congress. They will demand draconian tax cuts in non-Defense discretionary spending and entitlement programs to cut the Dems deficit.The press and the rubes in ‘Murica will eat it up.
Ruckus
@PurpleGirl:
Like I said, no worse off than many others, yourself included.
It may have been me that discussed what’s considered the size of small business in this country, which is ridiculous. And most people don’t realize how really large businesses (corporations) frame the all the economic discussions in this country. It reminds me of the West Wing episode where a group of kids was trying to get a discussion going on lowering/eliminating the voting age requirement. No one wanted to listen because they could not vote. Big corporations and rich cocksuckers set the agenda. Not us, we’re just along for the ride, with our puny votes.
Keith G
@FlipYrWhig: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTmUU_4BRC8
Corner Stone
@Mark S.:
The difference now is that Cole is on the fence. He’s a little iffy.
Before he would’ve led the hippie punching charge and screamed at all the Manic Progressives.
And all the slavish dogs would have eagerly followed the scent and brayed all night long.
But now he’s a little emo, and a little outside the circle. So some of the followers are a little lost.
When this lame duck breaks and they get shit else? The FlipYrNick Law 1:1 is going to be the rule. Because they just can’t take it.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: You’re losing this rhetorical argument. It’s ok dog. You’ll always have Stuck to commiserate with.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
@WyldPirate:
.
.
By Neptune’s trident, now you’ve cheered me up! :)
.
.
Just Some Fuckhead
@FlipYrWhig: Why don’t you describe yourself in unflattering terms? The rest of us have been here for years – before Obama. You showed up when he did.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: Serious question: do you ever see a bad situation, then conclude that the bad situation could have been worse, therefore arriving at the bad situation was actually a step up, given the circumstances? Things do suck, but they might have sucked worse, is this ever a valid response to information to you?
FlipYrWhig
@Just Some Fuckhead: What did you do that whole time? Compliment each other on how pissed off you were? Or one-up each other over how much you _should_ be pissed off?
Just Some Fuckhead
@FlipYrWhig: We reacted in real time to the events of the day, in a genuine fashion. You are a fucking propagandist.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: I make my living by either heading off bad outcomes or taking potentially bad outcomes and turning them around. Bringing shit in on schedule and under budget.
People pay me to use my judgment, make decisions and get them done.
I don’t wank around and whine to the stakeholders that so and so won’t let me do something.
“Oh, waah. They aren’t reading my e-mails! They aren’t doing what I instructed them to do! I lost you $X, but it was necessary.”
I’d get fucking fired for saying stupid shit like that.
Martin Gifford
@FlipYrWhig:
Teaser. I note you wrote “partly” and “help” rather than “solve the problem”.
You’re a master of digging up reasons for why the president can’t lead. And you’ve left room for more excuses with your qualifications in this comment. I feel I’m wasting my time. If I say, “Of course, fixing the fillibuster would help the president to lead.” then you would say, “Partly.” And we’d be off again on another round of excuses.
John Cole:
There’s your problem in a nutshell. Compromise for small “sweeteners”. The problem is the whole structure of American political corruption and Democratic weakness, but Dem supporters keep accepting crumbs.
Dems keep accepting little short-term benefits, while the Reps play to win the long-term game.
You are playing right into the Reps hands.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: So you never have a bad outcome, because you’re just that badass.
@Just Some Fuckhead: What do you add to this place? You pop in and act like a dick. I’ve never seen you “discuss” one fucking thing. You find where Stuck is and you needle him. You find dogpiles and get to barking. Seems there’s some redundancy in that department.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: I can tell you one thing. When something doesn’t go right I have a Plan B and C and D.
I’ve gamed out my worst case scenario and know what it will take to never get there.
And when I’ve failed I don’t look around for excuses. And I certainly don’t have people making excuses to the boss why something wasn’t handled appropriately.
FlipYrWhig
@Martin Gifford:
Well, I knew that going in. You posture like Corner Stone and NR do. Democrats should fight! Well for the love of motherfucking God of course they _should_ fucking fight! They _should_ all be liberals and should all agree and should all move inexorably towards human progress. Well, they fucking aren’t, and they fucking don’t. How do you solve that NOW or at least SOON? You don’t have an answer to that. There IS no answer to that. It just fucking sucks.
Just Some Fuckhead
@FlipYrWhig:
By “discuss”, I’m sure you mean propagandize non-stop? Because that is all you ever fucking do. This used to be a decent snark site until you humorless shits showed up. I’m right across the water anytime you want to shoot yer mouth off in real life.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: Why don’t you get your wanking straight you fucking punk?
Tell me where I have said they should “fight”?
Every time you get your ass kicked here you start lumping shit together.
Brachiator
Who says that people whose unemployment compensation needs extending are “the poorest of the poor?” This is compassion porn.
Is this the new standard? It’s OK to junk any coherent tax policy as long as people can convince themselves that somebody somewhere is being saved by goodhearted liberals? Then why bother having a Democrat do a goddamned thing? All the Republicans have to do is threaten to hurt some mythical poor downtrodden American if they don’t get what they want and the Democrats will sign on to anything.
I am seething over this bullshit. The fix was clearly in. I don’t know who is advising Obama and the Democratic leadership, but they caved early and often, despite clear signals from people like IRS Commissioner Shulman that the Democrats had a strong hand in any negotiations with Republicans.
Everything in this “compromise” favors the GOP position. It’s amazing how most of the news stories and commentary about the “Bush tax cuts” focused on individual income tax rates, but somehow, magically, the deal also includes a capitulation on the Estate Tax, which will be reduced to 35 percent from 55 percent.
You cannot blame Republicans for the failures of the Democrats.
And with respect to all this pearl clutching about unemployment benefits: what is Obama and the Democrats doing to get people some freaking jobs? This shitty compromise is going to hurt far more people, and over a longer period of time, than will be helped.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: You can simultaneously catch the heat for something going bad _and_ get some credit for preventing it from having been worse. You can’t treat every bad outcome as an equivalent failure.
I don’t think I have ever said that any of these big-ticket political developments have been unequivocal triumphs. I think I have consistently said that they seem like attempts to make the best of bad circumstances, and that I don’t see how _other_ attempts would have played out better. That’s why my most common kind of comment to something like “Obama made X happen, that sucks, he should have done Y” is something like, “But wouldn’t what you suggest result in Z, an even worse outcome?” You never like that because you think it’s “making excuses” or some such thing. But it’s kind of important to making your argument convincing. Instead nearly every time it turns into just lashing out. Well, lashing out is satisfying, but I thought the point was to discuss things, not just to melt down and pick the same fight over and over and over again.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: Why do you think the purpose of participating in a political blog is to “kick ass”? Dialogue, my friend, dialogue.
Bob Loblaw
@Cacti:
Actually, even under the new agreement, his UI won’t be around much longer if he’s been drawing from it for as long as you say he has. So there’s that.
FlipYrWhig
@Just Some Fuckhead: You think you’re funny? When have you once made a joke? Even slightly?
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone:
Fine, what do you want Obama to do? Or is the purpose of your existence to try to be the first one who jumps up and shouts FAIL!
Just Some Fuckhead
@FlipYrWhig:
Did I say I was funny, chickenshit?
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: It’s interesting. You just can’t accept it, can you?
Comrade Luke
I’d rather stay here than read the drivel that just went up…
“Tax cut stimulus”
Good grief.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: You know what, I don’t really want to know the answer. I treat you with respect. I’m not sure why I do that. I don’t get much out of coming here and trying find new ways to enliven the same exchange. Do you want to talk, or do you want to be a dick?
BR
@Comrade Luke:
Agreed.
FlipYrWhig
@Corner Stone: Well, that answered that.
Corner Stone
@FlipYrWhig: I don’t care what you do. I’m going to keep telling you the truth and you can keep thinking it’s hell.
Comrade Luke
@BR: On the other hand, it appears to just be me, you and two people who don’t know each other calling each other names.
I almost feel like I’m intruding.
Karen
@Brachiator:
You must be a compassion eunuch.
Corner Stone
@Comrade Luke: Take your pick. This heaven or reading anything EDK writes.
I rest my case.
Chuck Butcher
@Corner Stone:
ABL’s GG shitkick is a couple short of 700
Can't Be Bothered
As a longtime lurker and very infrequent commenter, I’d just like to interject my neutral and objective opinion that Corner Stone and Just Some Fuckhead are unmitigated trolling d-bags. What’s worse is that you two mistake yourselves for something other than trolls. You’re not enlightened. You’re not speaking truth to “power” (whatever the hell that may be here in your fevered fantasies.) You’re not even entertaining in the non-sequiter dumbassery way that BoB is. You are non-contributing, trolling zeros. You troll a political blog for christ’s sake. You are self important and delusional. You are the drunk guy at the party that thinks “EVERYONE LOVES IT1!!!!111!”. In reality, you’re just the guy with his dick hanging out, and a bit of piss on his leg that the rest of the partygoers talk shit about when he finally pass out on the toilet. I would lump WyldPirate in with you two, but I’m pretty sure he’s a spoof.
Uncle Clarence Thomas
@Chuck Butcher:
.
.
ABL’s GG
shitkickpoutrag is a couple short of 700Fixed. No “e”.
.
.
daveinboca
This is all so rib-tickling ROTFLMAO. Cole talks about tax cuts for the rich? Ha ha ha. The tax levels are the same as they’ve been for almost ten years, so it’s a continuation of a tax freeze, bozo. And bravo, brachiator:
“You cannot blame Republicans for the failures of the Democrats. And with respect to all this pearl clutching about unemployment benefits: what is Obama and the Democrats doing to get people some freaking jobs? This shitty compromise is going to hurt far more people, and over a longer period of time, than will be helped.”
Most of the posters are used to the old Marxist saw, ‘Half a loaf is no loaf at all’ and will never be satisfied. They should just take a deep breath and thank God the
Christmas, er, Holiday Season is here…!Martin Gifford
@FlipYrWhig:
How do we solve Democrats not fighting and not being liberal or liberal enough? We criticise them for it and we criticise their enablers for it. Obviously. We don’t make excuse after excuse after excuse. We don’t continually put out rationalisations for why we should accept low standards.
If Obama won’t lead, then we must lead by drawing the line in the sand. Look, America is in that moment (spoiler alert) of the ending of the film Thelma and Louise – the car has just left the cliff, and the Dem supporters are saying that they should accept whatever crumbs the Mighty Republicans are willing to give them. It’s ridiculous.
The reality of the situation is this that Dems/liberals/progressives have:
1) truth,
2) ethics, and
3) necessity
…on their side, but still they accept weak actions and bad outcomes and give excuse after excuse after excuse.
You ask for a solution “NOW or at least SOON”. Well, that’s the whole problem. Wanting a solution now, means compromises. Instead, you should be strategising long-term. For example, Obama should have drawn a line in the sand and said, “Tax cuts for the rich in this economic environment is irrational and unethical and I will veto it.” That would reorient the debate totally. It’s easy. It fits with truth, ethics, and necessity. It fits with basic Dem principles. It would be powerful. It would show leadership. It would stimulate the base to support him, etc. Then he and the supporters would and could brow-beat the Reps for the next two years.
But if you mean what is the solution “NOW or at least SOON” to Obama and the Dems’ failures to do this, then I can only say the solution is to revile them endlessly, i.e. stop making excuses for them and stop accepting their compromise deals.
Ultimately, the political climate must be changed, and that requires leadership. If Obama won’t do it, then it’s up to other liberals and progressives. But the Obama supporters just attack them and so America will get to keep the current political climate and worse into the future.
Karen
@daveinboca:
I was wondering if the homophobic, misogynistic anti-Semite was going to make an appearance. Now I know it’s a party.
Can't Be Bothered
@Martin Gifford:
And your strategy of criticism does precisely what? Please explain a detailed Democratic strategy that would get you your pony given Republican action, the media, and the American electorate. Until then, kindly STFU about how your criticism is helping a damn thing. Here’s a hint: saying FIGHT!!1!!!! isn’t a strategy, it’s a lament.
Martin Gifford
@FlipYrWhig:
FlipYrWhig, You are a very intelligent person, but somehow you fail to see the contradictions and circularity in what you write.
Given that the political climate must change, there is only upside in Obama drawing a line in the sand, and only downside to compromise. Drawing a line reorients the debate and creates a good future political climate. Compromise maintains the current bad political climate. Don’t you see this?
The Republicans are not scared… because the Dems don’t attack and don’t fight! But your solution is to continue compromising for short-term crumbs, that make things worse in the long-term.
Please try to see this!
Martin Gifford
@Can’t Be Bothered:
Didn’t you see that I wrote this?:
“…you should be strategising long-term. For example, Obama should have drawn a line in the sand and said, “Tax cuts for the rich in this economic environment is irrational and unethical and I will veto it.” That would reorient the debate totally. It’s easy. It fits with truth, ethics, and necessity. It fits with basic Dem principles. It would be powerful. It would show leadership. It would stimulate the base to support him, etc. Then he and the supporters would and could brow-beat the Reps for the next two years.”
Chuck Butcher
@Martin Gifford:
Ah crap. An appeal to the virtues “truth, ethics, neccesity” does not either create policy nor does it sell it. I could spen a piece of time explaining why a marginal rate on income of 100M should be 90% in the interests of incentivising keeping the money in the system rather than in single hands and you’d agree. You’d hear me out, think about it and go for it. The GOP: “class warfare” “funding excess on the backs of the productive” “punishing success” “shoshalizm” and what is most of the electorate going to hear? Then there is this – “marginal rates, huh?”
You want political power you have to have the electorate’s attention and willingness to believe. You ain’t got it – you’re too gaddam complicated. You need a better electorate and the skid we’re in doesn’t seem to promise one.
Obama can talk to them, what you got in his place? I may want a lot more from this President and Democrats than I’m getting, but shit.
Can't Be Bothered
@Martin Gifford:
It’s nice that your long term strategy just glosses over little things like a couple million homeless people and an economy backsliding into a Depression. But in the long term…. boy it would be sweet. “Let them eat wishful long term political positioning.” We’re trying to do triage and your busy thinking of ways to prevent car accidents.
Can't Be Bothered
@Martin Gifford:
And of course you realize that tied to that tax cut for the rich would of course be the tax cuts for the middle class? That he couldn’t veto one without vetoing the other? No? Ok then, great strategy.
Martin Gifford
@Chuck Butcher:
To get the electorate’s attention and willingness to believe is the politicians job. It’s especially the president’s job.
@Can’t Be Bothered:
Those homeless people and backsliding economy will get worse in the long-term if you don’t change the political climate and let the Mighty Republicans continue winning on long-term strategy.
Karen
The Green party may be the next big thing or not. But as long as there is politics there will always be corruption, no matter the party.
Chuck Butcher
@Martin Gifford:
That is exactly where you are wrong, it is a politician’s job to persuade people to back him and keep him elected not create the environment. The environment is what gets them elected and that environment can be created but it is a sociological process not political. Go see ABL’s comments.
@Chuck Butcher:
New Yorker
Bingo. Look, I want the Bush tax cuts to end as much as anyone, but if a party of sociopaths were going to hold unemployment benefits hostage, what can a decent person do? If tax cut extensions mean more people can pay the rent and put food on the table, so be it.
The Raven
& when there is nothing left to give to the rich, more food for corvids.
Croak!
YellowJournalism
@LarsThorwald:
I deeply respect you for that rant, especially the above reference. It’s not Christmastime or a nervous breakdown without some Griswold family cheer.
I’m going with those saying this is a shortsighted deal. It’s going to hurt everyone, especially the unemployed, in the long term.
John Bird
Extending the tax cuts, any of them, is a terrible idea. We’ll all suffer for this.
DougW
@Nick:
If Obama doesn’t sign the bill, Congress would have ten days to do things like DREAM ACT and repeal DADT, or he could pocket veto the tax bill by not signing. I hope he plays some hardball, as unlikely as it seems…
Martin Gifford
@Chuck Butcher:
The politician persuades by words and actions. Those words and actions create the political environment. He or she either creates actively by being a leader or passively by representing a power vacuum that lets others take the lead.
Again, your arguments like all the Obama defender arguments are about his powerlessness. Isn’t it interesting how the Republican mindset is “we are doers who roll the Democrats every chance we get and we create the political environment” while the Democratic mindset is “we must compromise with the Republicans to get some crumbs because of the political environment.”