Ron Brownstein has a good article about the 2012 Republican primary. The rough take is that non-college educated, economically downscale Republicans will go for a candidate they feel they represents their values (like Palin) and the college-educated, economically upscale Republicans will go more for someone they think would be a competent executive. He describes it as “managers” versus “populists” and, it seems that, although the “manager” candidates used to always win the Republican presidential primaries, no one knows what will happen this year after all the craziness in the 2010 Senate primaries.
My opinion is that the Republicans will nominate a manager type and Bobo and Joe Scar will tell us this person is a highly cerebral, principled Burkean thinker, who “stood up to the Palin of the party”. Fortunately, for all the fluffing he gets from the press, he will still be Mitt Romney or John Thune, so he probably will lose in the general election, though not as badly as Sarah Palin would.
One thing I take away from the article: the economically downscale portion of the Republican party consists almost entirely of blithering idiots. And this is no accident: if you don’t make a lot of money and you vote Republican because of young bucks buying T-bone steaks and gays/retailers/schools/MSNBC desecrating the cradle of the Baby Jeebus, then you’re an idiot. You’re pissing your own health care, your own retirement, your own minimum wage because you’re dumb enough to believe some fairy tale that Rush Limbaugh told you. It’s a self-selecting group: people who don’t make a lot of money and do have brains don’t join the Republican party, because they’d like to have health care, Social Security, the opportunity to join a union, etc.