I’m usually reluctant to link to Sully’s stunt stand-ins, but since this is the birthplace of the (flawed) idea of Peak Wingnut, we’re pretty much obligated to link to a post that proposes the idea of Peak Palin. Dave Weigel has the details:
Let’s also ask what it means that Sarah Palin’s America by Heart is not anywhere close to the hit Going Rogue was. The new book debuted at number 2 on the NYT bestseller list, then fell to 3rd, 5th, and now 8th, which means it’s unlikely it will ever get the “#1 New York Times bestseller” badge given to recent hits by David Limbaugh, Michelle Malkin, and Glenn Beck.
[…..]Her show’s not doing too bad. Ratings for “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” which tumbled after 5 million people watched the premiere, have remained stable at around 3 million. That’s about as good as “Mad Men.” No one’s proposing a John Hamm candidacy, though.
(If it kept him from doing so many voice-overs, I’d get behind it, btw.)
I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach that Palin won’t make much of a showing in the 2012 Republican primary, that we’ll be stuck with six months of Bobo masturbating to John Thune’s sun-chapped good looks and sound Burkean temperament.
Maude
But only if Thune touches Bobo’s thigh.
I forgot who it was that Bobo was talking about with that.
DougJ
@Maude
He didn’t say. A gentleman never tells.
gypsy howell
Then let me be the first.
Maude
@DougJ:
So Thune will never touch and tell?
The repubs don’t want Palin in the primaries, we gotta get her in there.
Captain Haddock
I think this makes a 2012 run by Palin more likely. She going to need to boost her profile somehow, what better way to do that?
GregB
The establishment has been teeing up on Sarah as of late. I’m anticipating the day that it dawns on her thick skull that she’s yesterday’s Ann Coulter. Old hat sister. Move along Sarah, there’s the musky scent of Thune thigh moving on in.
Should we start an early GOP pool on who will be the nominee?
Punchy
Thats some Grade-A quality spoof. Gold, Jerry, gold!
Omnes Omnibus
@Maude: Who said Thune is a gentleman? He is a Republican and that creates a presumption, a rebuttable presumption, that he is not a gentleman.
You Don't Say
Palin’s star is fading fast. She’ll be a fundraiser in the lead up and then slowly fade into obscurity after the election.
Peter J
Jon Hamm can’t become president, he has never been in a movie with a monkey or ape, which is the litmus test for actors turned presidents.
LarsThorwald
If John Thune runs, I fear John Thune wins.
fitzwili
OT but Sen. Coburn is threatening to block the 9/11 responders bill out of spite. His office phone number is 202 224 5754, please call and tell him how morally bankrupt his stance is.
You Don't Say
@fitzwili: And then call your own senators to encourage them to vote down Coburn’s filibuster.
Dr. Squid
Congratulations, Palinistas! Your show still gets half the ratings of Spongebob, which peaked about seven years ago.
Maude
@Omnes Omnibus:
Are Republicans human?
fitzwili
@ You Don’t Say
Yes! Thank you for saying that.
agrippa
I think that Palin is in a zone between celebrity and politician. She may have had her high water mark.
cleek
she’s nowhere near “peak”.
when she announces her candidacy, the media will swoon over her for weeks and weeks.
John Arbuthnot Fisher
I know many here, including DougJ, have been touting Thune as a dark horse for the 2012 GOP nomination, and rightfully so – especially from an image point of view, he’s perfect for them (if I have to hear “sunchapped” and “heartland” in conjunction with Thune and SD one more time I may stab someone). That said, consider the following:
Among those who voted in 2008, how many people who voted for Obama (and as a result did not vote for McCain), will be persuaded to turn around and vote for Thune 4 years later? Before someone else says Black Jimmy Carter, I’m sure this was said many times in 1978 about Ronald Reagan, but I don’t think Thune is capable of 1980.
Among those who did not vote in 2008, is John Thune really going to be the guy to get these people to the polls in 2012? As much as he superficially appeals to the GOP base, I think his ability to generate infrequent voter enthusiasm is extremely low.
So my skepticism of Thune is based entirely on those premises, but I’m not sure I see any other way for him. If you have a limited ability to sway the other side, and no ability to motivate non-voters, it’s pretty tough to win an election in which the incumbent will be guaranteed at least 45% and will consistently dominate you on the ground, in debates, etc.
The Republic of Stupidity
@You Don’t Say:
How dearly I hope you are correct in this assertion…
Is there no acceptable way to speed this process up?
The Republic of Stupidity
@agrippa:
A celebritician?
Jay in Oregon
@DougJ:
Hey, buddy, I think I found yer problem here…
catclub
@John Arbuthnot Fisher: I don’t think DougJ is stating that Thune will win.
Which is what you argued against.
He is stating that Thune is likely to be the GOP nominee.
None of your points rebutted that assertion.
Thune is a dark horse because the habit in the GOP is to nominate the guy who lost (but came in second for) the nomination previous time. Thune will just be a half term senator with no executive experience – an ideal candidate
for the GOP to run.
2/3rds term? one term senator?
My prediction: If unemployment is below 7.5% in 2012 and coming down, Obama is re-elected. If unemployment is above 8.5% he is not. In between, the GOP candidate and his campaign will affect the outcome.
debbie
Doubtless, one of Palin’s starstruck fans will swoop in and make bulk purchases of the book, which will send it shooting up the list. It may be daggered, but it’ll still be up there. That’s why the NYT bestseller list doesn’t mean anything anymore.
Cat Lady
The problem for the Republicans is turning out the base, and the base wants Palin. The base does all the heavy lifting at the grass roots level, in the churches and at the phone banks, and they want Starbursts Sarah. They’re not going to turn on for Thune, even with three wet suits. The goopers are ridin’ the tiger all the way through 2012. Yee hawww!
BombIranForChrist
The book that America by Heart lost out to was … Dubya’s book. That’s touching to me, for some reason.
Morbo
@Maude:
I don’t believe he ever disclosed that fact. And I think I’m going to take a cyanide pill for knowing that.
catclub
@John Arbuthnot Fisher:
Remember all those voters who decided against McCain because he nominated Sarah Palin? You really cannot plan on that own goal happening again.
Remember how bad McCain’s campaign was? The one he ‘suspended’ for the financial crisis, and then ‘unsuspended’
for the debates? Remember how clueless McCain was at the financial summit THAT HE CALLED?
The economy was on the brink of disaster and the electorate blamed the GOP for that. McCain was particularly bad at bringing out the GOP base. So, for Thune to exceed the performance of McCain is not hard to imagine.
I hope that Obama gets re-elected. I do not see a cakewalk for him.
Mark S.
Has anyone here ever watched her show? I’ve only seen about fifteen minutes of it, but two things stand out. One, Sarah will mutter things about her enemies in the weirdest times and places. The other is that she seems about as comfortable in the Alaskan wilderness as Woody Allen. I look more natural shooting a rifle than she does. It would be like if Abe Lincoln had a reality show where it was obvious he never split a rail in his life.
matoko_chan
amg dont be so dumb, DougJ. why do you and Cole keep falling for the fake-reasonable-conservative bullshytt??
there are no reasonable conservatives.
Rove, Weigel, Blow, Frum, Krauthammer, Tobin, Douchebag, Bobo, et al, …….. ALL the conservitards are trying to wean the base off Palin like they suppressed birtherism last year.
they know she cant win the general, so they are trying to basegank her before the primaries.
but its not woooooooooorrrrrrrkkkkkking.
Allahp–
Palin gets the nom and the TP/GOP cant get the WH.
its a tautology.
the repubs have three gamemoves.
wean the base off Palinism like they weaned base off birtherism.
offer Palin the VP slot.
let Palin run third party.
The Lady or the Tiger?
im betting on the tiger.
belt yourselves in, its going to be a wild ride.
You Don't Say
@Mark S.: Sullivan has been collecting quotes from real hunters about her utter cluelessness.
Southern Beale
Perhaps this Red State survey of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates will cheer you up (link is to Gin & Tacos, not Red State BTW)….
matoko_chan
Even Allahp is playing the Game.
why do you dumb cattle fall for this?
PALIN CANT WIN THE GENERAL.
its mathematically impossible. Allahp knows this, Rove knows this….THEY ALL KNOW THIS THING.
jwb
@catclub: Given how things are shaping up, I’ll be shocked if unemployment is below 7.5% in 2012, and I think it’s more likely than not to be well above 9%. I agree that under normal circumstances that would make prospects for reelection exceedingly poor. But there are a lot of politics to play out before the next election, and I can see plausible scenarios where Obama wins handily with unemployment above 10%.
ornery curmudgeon
Oh, Sully’s site said something. Thank you for the very important information.
Question: Do you guys get ad revenue from the Sullivan blog … ? That would make sense. Not so much otherwise.
jwb
@matoko_chan: Sure, Sarah Princess could win. It’s exceedingly unlikely, but if in working with the GOP House over the next two years Obama makes dumb political decisions that alienate his base (not those who have been harping at him over the past two years, but the roughly 80% of Dems who currently support him) or if the economy goes back into recession and the GOP manages to pin the blame wholly on Obama, she could easily win. But from the perspective of the Dems she should be the preferred candidate by far since every other GOP candidate would be stronger and I see no scenario where she would win the election that other GOP candidates would fail to win.
freelancer
OT – DougJ! SullyBorg has a post up in the last few minutes that is nothing but “capture, capture capture“.
Nellcote
@matoko_chan:
Now that’s an awesome word. Did you make it up?
matoko_chan
@Nellcote: yes.
merci por te complimente
usually ppl dont understand what im sayin.
i should write an AI cudlip to chanese translator, right?
catclub
@jwb:
“and I can see plausible scenarios where Obama wins handily with unemployment above 10%”
Did they involve unicorns?
Did you also see plausible scenarios for the Democrats to expand their margins in the House and Senate in 2010?
And I thought I was an optimist.
matoko_chan
@jwb: she is a lock for the nom.
that is what has Weigel and Rove and Krauthammer shitting their pants.
she MATHEMATICALLY cannot win the general outside of a zorgon invasion from space mid-campaign.
Tsulagi
Don’t forget Herman! He’s fast coming up behind Sarah in a poll today on RedState. Palin is still #1 for them, but she’s slid down the pole.
jwb
@catclub: No unicorns, just, say, the GOP taking a series of incredibly stupid actions as the economy goes back into recession and unemployment spikes. I don’t think that is a likely scenario, but I can easily see the GOP miscalculating badly enough to shift public opinion decisively against them.
freelancer
@matoko_chan:
William Gibson wouldn’t understand what you are saying.
Not just that, but Gibson, Whedon, and every other sci-fi writer you allude to would agree that you write like a sad idiot. See, they might make reference to hackers and samurai steampunk heroes and unstoppable signals and cudlips, oh my. The thing is, their narratives weren’t written in LOLcat-speak, they were typed down in plain and simple cudlip English, so that everyone could understand. Your heroes would hate you, and you’d despise them for it.
liberal
@matoko_chan:
Here’s a word I did not make up: bafflegab.
jwb
@matoko_chan: Sarah Princess has far better odds than a zorgon invasion. That doesn’t make it likely, and it is unlikely enough that it would cause Weigel, Rove, Krauthammer, et al to shit in their pants. Hell, just the fact that any other GOP nominee would do better would be enough to get Weigel, Rove, Krauthammer, et al to shit in their pants.
I don’t think she’s a lock for the nomination by any means, but I’ve come around to the idea that the primary calendar, aside from New Hampshire, is set in her favor. That’s why I fully expect a very, very expensive buy out to be announced soon.
liberal
@jwb:
Agreed.
Uloborus
@jwb:
Interesting. That might work. The most common argument against her running that I’ve heard is ‘She makes more money as a non-candidate’. That argument assumes that she’s capable of running long-term calculations like that, which really doesn’t fit her character. Narcissist Grifter = Grab The Money And Run. Only a *quick* buck could overcome the tremendous importance of her ego, but a ‘buyout’ scenario makes that a possibility. Someone just has to convince her that she can make a lot of cash in the short term by not running, and keep her convinced until it’s too late for her to change her mind and throw in due to a moment of arrogant spite.
Bill Murray
@catclub: Thune will be in his 8th year of Senatorin’ in 2012 along with 6 years of Representin’. In between he was paid $5 million to lobby for a railroad. As near as I can tell his signature political moments are keeping Ellsworth Air Force base open, inserting language into an unrelated bill to allow his former lobbying client to get up to $2.5 billion in federal funds. He tried to get an amendment into a troop funding bill allowing concealed carry reciprocity between states, and pushed the Bush energy bills of 2005 and 2007 and was instrumental in the creation of the $750,000,000 Livestock Compensation fund in 2002. he also got $240,000,000 in earmarks in 2008 despite his opposition to earmarks.
So not much of a record for 12 years, but he can play hoops pretty well, and graduated Bible college despite not being very smart
You Don't Say
@Tsulagi: OK, I’m not ashamed to admit I had to Google Mr. Cain.
Alwhite
SInce a huge part of her book sales were bulk sales (indicating groups with money – often the publisher itself – wanting the book to move up the charts) the drop off in sales says less about her popularity with the morans and more about her standing with the moneyed elite.
Her stock has dropped because she will never reach outside the moran brigade 27% in popularity. They have to keep an eye on their ROI and this lemon just is not gonna do it for them.
catclub
@Tsulagi:
“but she’s slid down the pole. ”
You’ll give Rich Lowry and Jonah starbursts if you don’t watch your spelling.
matoko_chan
@freelancer:
:)
who said that?
hahaha
schrodinger's cat
@freelancer: I think the blog (Daily Dish) is unreadable in Sullivan’s absence.
Chris
@Bill Murray:
I thought his empty shirt persona was what was keeping him going, frankly. He doesn’t have name recognition, which means he’s not affiliated with any of the screwups of recent years (and that’s important when the teabaggers are setting themselves up as the “insurgency” against the “GOP elite”). He’s not solidly identified with any of the factions (unlike Romney and Huckabee), but he’s got appeal for both; he’s signaled to Wall Street that he’s good for helping out wealthy interests, and he’s signaled to Main Street that, hey, I believe in God and I’m totes for guns and having beer with y’all.
He reminds me of no one so much as Governor George W. Bush, with less name recognition and more outsider cred (both advantages in this climate).
Hob
@matoko_chan: Did you even read what DougJ wrote?
He said he was worried that Palin might lose the Republican primary… which would be good for Republicans, because Palin would be easy to beat in the general election.
You replied that a lot of Republicans are hoping that Palin loses the primary… which would be good for Republicans, because Palin would be easy to beat in the general election.
And you said DougJ didn’t understand this and was therefore “dumb” and “falling for … bullshytt.” You’re hilarious.
catclub
@Chris:
“I thought his empty shirt persona was what was keeping him going, frankly. ”
I think that was central to Bill Murray’s point.
Which way did Thune vote on TARP? That is a key vote for the teabaggers.
feebog
I don’t know, but I think of Thune as Romney light, but without the morman baggage. He might appeal to the corpratists as the alternative to Romney, but on a scale of 1 to 10 his charisma level is about 2.5, while Sarahcudda is a 10. And the Teabaggers love them some charisma.
ChrisS
Palin will not make a serious run. That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.
I guess “serious” is the qualifier. I’m not sure if I can put a fine point on it. Maybe a qualified exploratory committee and then dropping out before the primaries. I just don’t think she has work ethic for serious campaigning.
Chris
@catclub:
He voted for it. Here’s his defense; http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/john-thune-tarp-bailout/2010/10/04/id/372504.
Basically, “I did it to help America, but the people who applied it screwed it up, and I’ve been against it ever since!”
John Arbuthnot Fisher
@catclub: I concede your point regarding DougJ’s prediction – I was responding more generally to those who not only think Thune will win the nomination, but are concerned that he is a strong candidate against Obama. I see what you’re saying about unemployment, but there’s no way unemployment will be under 7.5% in under two years, and probably won’t be under 10%, yet the calculus is such that I don’t think Obama can lose to any Republican.
matoko_chan
@Hob:
false. she is either ahead or second to Huck in every. single. fucking. poll. DougJ hasnt read any polls?
he is just giving Weigel airtime for a headfake.
that means he got spoofed.
Weigel=Rove=Douchebag=Reihan=Kain=McMegan=Blow=Scarborough=Frum etcetera, etcetera
the conservative elite used the heck out of Palin to cocktease the base.
now they are united behind the effort to basegank her.
and she is running. she is a vituperative grudgeholder and a mean grrl that shut down for the WH prom…..
she isnt going to forget or forgive….not Krauthammer, not Babs Bush, not anyone that dissed her and said she wasnt ready….not anyone that thinks they are better than her..
there isnt enough fundage in the world to buy her off.
she is going to show them all.
that is why im sure shez running.
its a big middle finger to everyone that ever leveled the tiniest crit against her.
there isnt enough money in the world to buy her off.
the only thing they can offer her that she wants is the WH. so its the VP slot on someones ticket or shez goin third party.
matoko_chan
@freelancer:
they would lurve me and you know it. im Y.T. and Princess Nell and River Tam made flesh.
get my quote yet?
its from Napoleon Dynamite.
heres another.
maus
@Mark S.:
While this is very true, her supporters play the cowboy chickenhawk roles even more poorly. Wearing a hat and owning guns and listening to country music doesn’t make you a “grizzly” unless you’re a real Merkin.
Sko Hayes
@matoko_chan:
Actually, it depends on the Republican you’re talking to, I think. A lot of the Christian conservatives love Huck and Palin, while fiscal conservatives hate them. The blogs love Palin, because they’re run by middle aged white men, who see starbursts when she speaks.
There was a conservative convention back last summer somewhere where she polled about 4th or 5th (I googled it but not finding), as most serious Republicans (the money guys) know she has no chance of winning against Obama:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/house-tax-cut-vote.html
matoko_chan
@Sko Hayes: POLLS OF REPUBLICANS!
POLLS!
not “adults”, not “fiscal conservatives”, REPUBLICANS THAT VOTE IN THE PRIMARIES!