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I was promised a recession.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

A consequence of cucumbers

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Cole is on a roll !

We still have time to mess this up!

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

Following reporting rules is only for the little people, apparently.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Democrats are back in array!

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Talk like an Egyptian

Talk like an Egyptian

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What are people reading and hearing about Egypt? I found the links you all provided yesterday to be fascinating.

I’m watching some guy on MSNBC right now who’s mostly making sense to me and then he closes with “the fundamental issue of Israel”. That bothers me. There are 82 million people in Egypt, there is widespread poverty, and I’m sure, all sorts of other issues (I don’t claim to know anything about the country). Does everything always have to be about the United States and Israel?

Reader Interactions

150Comments

  1. 1.

    Malron

    Well, since the United States and Israel have been meddling in the affairs of every country in that region for the past 62 years unfortunately the answer is yes.

  4. 4.

    Yutsano

    There has been blood. Blood means martyrs. Things are about to get real serious real fast. And the military is still sitting things out.

  5. 5.

    Genine

    I agree. I think our ego-centric view of things adds to the tension between ourselves and the Arab world.

    Props on the title of this post. I love it!

  6. 6.

    BGinCHI

    82 million people, almost all of whom are Muslim.

    How many people is that in Christians?

    /wingnut

  7. 7.

    A Writer At Balloon-Juice

    @Yutsano:

    You know, maybe this is a wrong impression, but I am surprised how peacefully things are going in Egypt and how peaceful they were in Tunisia. I realize there has been some violence, but I would have expected more.

  9. 9.

    morzer

    Bugger Israel. They are strategic dead-weight as allies, provoke the Arab world on a regular basis, blackmail our politicians through AIPAC, guilt-trip the rest of the world, and treat the Palestinians despicably.

    When are we going to stop listening to Bronze Age propaganda and religious tripe and start dealing with the real world?

    Why don’t we try supporting democracy and clean elections in Egypt, give them foreign aid with strict accountability and show them that we want to do business in a friendly way? Why must we push peoples (who might well show us goodwill if we treated them decently) into the arms of extremists by following a short-sighted, bigoted foreign policy dreamed up by a bunch of cowardly, corrupt frauds?

  10. 10.

    Davis X. Machina

    They need an American angle… and there is none, really, except the bank shot to Israel.

    Egypt isn’t a major trading parter. There’s no large Egyptian-American community — it’s not Mexico. It’s not a neighbor. What trade moves through Suez affects us little — and it’s no longer a major oil-transport conduit.

    Freedom as such, apart from securing the widest possible range of choice in consumer goods, are just abstractions to the television audience.

    So if it weren’t for Israel, it wouldn’t be on your telly at all except to the extent that the available footage was cinematographically more interesting than an ice-storm in Oklahoma to a network news director.

    24/7 news has its own imperatives.

  11. 11.

    PurpleGirl

    Unfortunately, it does seem that US Middle East policy does come down to “what is the effect on Israel”. There are two special interest groups: Jewish Americans and Christianists who are interested in the “end of days and the rapture”.

    I’m not really following the events in Egypt closely but I am concerned about what could possibly happen to the National Museum and the ancient artifacts. Egypt has a long history and importance in so many areas (art, architecture, religion, etc.) The modern country has grinding poverty that affects many (most?) of its people.

    Ancient Egypt has long been an interest of mine (like back to childhood) and I’ve always wanted to travel there.

  13. 13.

    Yutsano

    @A Writer At Balloon-Juice: The lack of much bloodshed is mostly due to the fact that the military is sitting back and just watching for now. That really suggests a major disconnect between Mubarak and the military leadership. Egypt’s military isn’t exactly a bunch of wusses. We should know, we trained a lot of them.

  15. 15.

    Mnemosyne

    @morzer:

    Why must we push peoples (who might well show us goodwill if we treated them decently) into the arms of extremists by following a short-sighted, bigoted foreign policy dreamed up by a bunch of cowardly, corrupt frauds?

    Because short-sighted, bigoted foreign policy is more profitable for the top 1%.

  18. 18.

    Mnemosyne

    @Yutsano:

    As I said down below, if the reports of the police and army holding back or even joining the protesters are accurate, Mubarak had better hope he’s got his jet to Switzerland fueled up and ready to go.

  20. 20.

    JGabriel

    DougJ @ Top:

    There are 82 million people in Egypt, there is widespread poverty, and I’m sure, all sorts of other issues … . Does everything always have to be about the United States and Israel?

    Especially since Israel only has a population of about 7.5 million people — which makes the whole country a little smaller than NYC, but we get nowhere near the same deference.

    Hey, there’s an idea! If only NYC had it’s own nukes …

    .

  21. 21.

    BGinCHI

    @Mnemosyne: Agreed. Capitalism needs cooperative nation states; stability is the goal for this brand of foreign policy. The 19th and 20th-century examples are legion.

  25. 25.

    Yutsano

    @Mnemosyne: That equation is half-right: apparently police fired upon protesters storming the Interior Ministry. But the police force has long been considered a corrupt institution in Egypt. The military is much more respected. This could have some relationship with why they are exercising such restraint. Or Mubarak pissed off the wrong general.

  26. 26.

    Amir_Khalid

    @A Writer At Balloon-Juice: It looks like the death toll is headed towards three figures by the third day, from the BBC’s feed which I am following. Wounded already well over 1,000. Reports of looting, buildings set on fire, people cowering in fear as hotels and apartment buildings come under assault from rioters, some of which might have been instigated by the secret police. This isn’t the most violent uprising, but I wouldn’t call it all that peaceful.

  27. 27.

    JGabriel

    @PurpleGirl:

    Ancient Egypt has long been an interest of mine (like back to childhood) and I’ve always wanted to travel there.

    Interesting Bit O’ Trivia: The Coptic language is the only living descendent of Egytptian.

    You probably know that already, Purple Girl, but it’s an interesting little tidbit others might like.

    .

  28. 28.

    Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill

    I HATE most of the coverage; even the American belly dancers we know of in Cairo have no idea what’s going on, really — and now, of course, most of them can’t even get word out.

    And the worst part in some ways is how we — and I mean some Progressives as well — keep pushing “our” version of what is going to happen, mostly because it matches some pre-written script that has shit-all to do with what the Egyptians want, much less “need”.

    One real lesson of this revolution, for Americans, is that we’re really not all that important to their day-to-day lives.

  29. 29.

    WyldPirate

    @BGinCHI:

    82 million people, almost all of whom are Muslim.

    How many people is that in Christians? /wingnut

    That would be 42.9 million. 3/5’s of a person due to being brown and having the temerity to believe in an Imaginary Sky Daddy in the wrong way.

    /True Christian (TM) from Amerikkka!

  30. 30.

    schrodinger's cat

    Does everything always have to be about the United States and Israel?

    According to greater Wingnuttia, we are the center of the universe and everything revolves around us.

  31. 31.

    GregB

    Al Jazeera, Professor Juan Cole, Col. Pat Lang, Haaretz, Mondoweiss.

    To name a few decent sources.

  32. 32.

    The Dangerman

    Of the MSM’s (I couldn’t get Al-Jazerra to load), MSNBC has been the best. Richard Engel is the correspondent there, learned Arabic in Cairo, and is, in general, the most sober of the analysts. How he found time to get some sleep is rather amazing (or maybe he’s just on a major caffeine buzz).

    For all the intelligence and resources thrown into that region, it seems like the U.S. and Israel now find themselves in a rather fucked up set of circumstances; should be fascinating and I hope Obama is smart enough to navigate through the resulting mess.

  33. 33.

    Yutsano

    @The Dangerman:

    or maybe he’s just on a major caffeine buzz

    Dude, coffee is a drink of Arabic origin. They make some seriously potent brews there that will keep even the most somnolent up for days.

  34. 34.

    BGinCHI

    @WyldPirate: Is that the new TN math?

    Seriously, my snark was aimed at the “how is this really about us, the USA” approach of the media and the neocon types.

    Can’t believe Cole hasn’t posted something from Reason on this yet…..

  36. 36.

    Alex S.

    @Mnemosyne:

    It seems though that Mubarak still has control over the secret service, if his choice for vice-president is any indication… I would like to know how much power that institution has got.

  39. 39.

    Yutsano

    @BGinCHI: I can’t really use any of my fancier vocabulary words at work. I keep getting the blank stare and the dog-like head tilt. So I pretty much just save them for here and the occasional conversation where I want to cause an interruption because the discussion has gone off the rails.

  40. 40.

    Morbo

    I watched MSNBC for about a half hour when I got up today and just couldn’t take it after having AJE streaming in the background all day yesterday. MSNBC was about 75/25 how this affects the US vs. what’s actually going on; whereas Al Jazeera was more like 95/5 news vs. foreign implications. It is pretty irritating.

  42. 42.

    General Stuck

    The hated interior police have all but disappeared from the streets in the country, and the military has not intervened, and likely won’t at this stage. So it sort of looks like this might end up being a relatively low violence successful revolution. Maybe.

    If it spreads to Saudi Arabia, that will be when it gets very serious. It is a center, or the center of wahabism there, and with lots of Texas T. It will be harder for us to stand on the sidelines with those things in the mix.

  43. 43.

    Svensker

    @BGinCHI:

    Can’t believe Cole hasn’t posted something from Reason on this yet…

    Reason’s front page has Hispanics and School Choice; Tax Credits?; and Grade Inflation. They’re right on top of those pressing issues of both the national security state and international democracy movements.

  44. 44.

    The Dangerman

    @Yutsano:

    They make some seriously potent brews there that will keep even the most somnolent up for days.

    As a former resident of the Seattle area, I’m jonesing for some Arabic inspired joe now; I used to frequent a place just south of Boeing Field that had a wonderful blend they called “jet fuel”. Busy busy buzz buzz blend.

    Yeah, these war correspondents probably learn to sleep later and are just mainlining caffine.

  45. 45.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Yutsano:

    That really suggests a major disconnect between Mubarak and the military leadership.

    You have it backwards. Standing back is the plan.

    It’s imperative that the military and the police don’t provide a force for the protesters to countervail against. So they just sit back and let the economic and property distress envelop, in the hopes that working class Egyptians come to grudgingly accept Mubarak over anarchy. This while acting covertly to send “state-sponsored” looters out and about to reinforce this growing distress. It’s authoritarianism 101.

    By current indications, it looks like some of the momentum has already waned. The Friday holiday may very well have been the high water mark of the revolution. There probably won’t be any immediate collapse of government, like in Tunisia. The odds are in Mubarak’s favor.

  48. 48.

    kdaug

    @Yutsano:

    I keep getting the blank stare and the dog-like head tilt.

    I know the feeling.

    But one suspects matoko_chan is soaking in it.

  49. 49.

    John PM

    I can understand the concern over how this affects Israel, given the shared border and the past history with Egypt. And because of the US relationship with Israel, we could have a stake in the outcome.

    The Daily Show (what else) covered this very well the other day. Two correspondents wore competing Team W and Team O shirts, alternatively trying to credit Bush and Obama with the recent uprisings. Samantha Bee was the senior Teen Twitter analyst, arguing that Twitter and Facebook were responsible. Asif Manvi then came on with a shirt labeled Team Local Conditions, stating that the uprisings had nothing to do with the US. He was shputed down by the others.

  51. 51.

    Violet

    While I was making lunch I had CNN on in the background. I heard them saying that they thought Mubarak was looking to install a temporary leader as a way of transitioning from power. Or something like that. Also heard that tourists are trying to get out of the country. Not sure if governments are suggesting tourists leave or hunker down and hope things calm down. Also that mobile phone service was somewhat restored.

    Anyone else hear more?

    And, OT, I heard Dire Straits’ “Money for Nothing” on the radio. I’d forgotten how much I like Dire Straits and how that song always cracks me up. I want my MTV.

  53. 53.

    me

    @The Dangerman: MSNBC has been using video from Al Jazeera and CNN has been using video from Nile TV. Best I can tell, FOX News has been the all USA narcissism channel

  54. 54.

    benjoya

    i just heard biden say mubarak is not a dictator. whew, that’s a relief! i guess all those troublemakers in the streets should just go home.

  56. 56.

    Yutsano

    @Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again): They primarily chewed the beans (you’re correct in that the coffee plant is native to the Horn of Africa) but the Arabs took the idea of making the beans into a drink. I’m guessing it was more culinary accident than deliberate invention, although from what I understand coffee fruits are rather tough to eat.

    @Bob Loblaw:

    It’s imperative that the military and the police don’t provide a force for the protesters to countervail against.

    The police have already failed in that objective. So what’s their Plan B?

  57. 57.

    BGinCHI

    @BGinCHI: Following up, from the geniuses at Reason. On the higher ed beat, they have a piece on Federal spending on education, and so of course the angle is to try to defend for-profit colleges. This gem in the beginning of the article:

    Still, the $25 billion in federal grants and loans that flows to them each year represents just a fraction of the $113.3 billion the government made available to higher education as a whole in 2009–10.

    Yes, it literally represents a fraction. Any part of a larger whole represents a fraction. No indication of whether 22% is significant. I’d say it’s very significant and surprising, given that these places rack up the biggest debts for their students.

    Fucking Reason, how does it work?

  58. 58.

    The Dangerman

    @me:

    Best I can tell, FOX News has been the all USA narcissism channel.

    What was surprising to me was that all the traditional MSM’s still brought in the B or C teams for this VERY important story; at least MSNBC interrupted Prisonporn for it. Maybe it’s in the B and C talents contracts that they get the Saturday morning gigs regardless.

    Edit: I’m referring to the Studio talent.

  59. 59.

    General Stuck

    @kdaug:

    I largely agree, but the pressure still builds. Something’s gotta give.

    If that is the strategy, then it is a hail mary of sorts. This was personal between Mubarek and 30 long years of governance and economic and human rights deprivations that folks there are fed up with. Until he is gone and his party gone from power, it could only buy him some time, and not much of that. Seems to me.

    The other possibility is the police got while the getting was good, and helped themselves to whatever they could carry out of a sense of desperation.

  63. 63.

    Yutsano

    @morzer: So every time I drink a cup of coffee I’m supporting sekrit Muslin terrtsts? SWEET! I’m running up my Starbucks bill now!

    @James Hare: Egypt has their long-standing history as one of the most ancient and long-standing civilizations. They are also highly regarded as a center for Sunni Muslim education (the name of the big Muslim university in Cairo is escaping me right now but it’s huge and very highly respected in the Muslim world) and also have been at the cornerstone of many of history’s greatest turning points. Egypt has a long very proud very honorable history. And they will tell you up front they are Egyptian first before identifying as anything else.

  64. 64.

    James Hare

    Read Naguib Mahfouz. That’s all I really know about Egypt. I took a great course on Middle Eastern novels in my freshman year. It’s a real different place.

  66. 66.

    Amir_Khalid

    @Woodrow “asim” Jarvis Hill:

    The Obama administration has already said all there was to be said yesterday. In an ideal world, where news editors weren’t desperate to fill column-centimeters/airtime/web pages with something, anything, important or important-looking on the hot news story of the moment, they’d just follow developments and leave the bloviating on the significance of it all till later.

    But there’s a audience out there that expects leaders to strike big rhetorical poses, like this clown who wrote to the BBC:

    1958 Johan Baumeister from Minneapolis, USA, writes: “As an American citizen, I am deeply ashamed of my government’s lukewarm response to the protests in Egypt. President Obama and Vice-President Biden have an opportunity to influence the outcome in favour of a more democratic Egypt. Thus far, they have squandered that chance. I urge all my fellow Americans to contact their senators, representatives, and the White House. It is time to call on Washington to stop supporting tyrants and dictators. It is time for out vaunted American gospel of democracy to be more than empty words and hollow gestures. It is time for a free world, and a Free Egypt!”

    What the frak does he expect Obama to say or do?

  67. 67.

    me

    @me: Ah, caught FOX using Al Jazeera Arabic video (MSNBC has Al Jazeera English, at times they even use the audio, they must realize that Al Jazeera’s coverage is much better, i’ve been watch it for several hours, it’s riveting). They are covering the story just much less and with more of a “How it effects the US” focus.

  68. 68.

    Alex S.

    @Bob Loblaw:

    Maybe the problem is that the uprising doesn’t have a leader and no organization. Someone should try to challenge the military to force them to take a position. And there seems to be no move to take the strategic positions, airports, government facilities, palaces of the regime and the like.

  69. 69.

    Caz

    Because MSNBC has not standards or integrity. They will politicize anything, so if they have an opportunity to bring Israel into the discussion, they’ll do so, even though this situation has absolutely nothing to do with Israel at this point.

    Fox News has mentioned Israel maybe once or twice in the last week. Their coverage is excellent, accurate, comprehensive, and fair.

  72. 72.

    General Stuck

    Fox News has mentioned Israel maybe once or twice in the last week. Their coverage is excellent, accurate, comprehensive, and fair.

    LOL, What you smokin’ Gracie?

  73. 73.

    jwb

    @Bob Loblaw: You might be right, except that the street and everyone else seems to believe that the secret police are in fact seeding the looting, so it’s not at all clear that the general response will be to call for Mubarak or any other strongman to come in and restore order. My personal take is that Mubarak is already toast and he’s being kept around just long enough that the military and other powers that be can get their ducks in a row to have a more or less orderly transition. As for anything fundamental changing… Well, it happens occasionally, but not often, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

  74. 74.

    kdaug

    @General Stuck:

    If that is the strategy, then it is a hail mary of sorts.

    This is a hail mary in all caps. If they can tamp it down, it won’t be for long.

    First the Green Revolution in Iran. Then Tunisia. Then Algeria. Then Yemen. Now Egypt.

    Accelerating.

    If the House of Saud is next, I hope you live close to public transport or have an electric car.

    Doesn’t fucking have anything to do with us, except our “interests”.

  75. 75.

    The Dangerman

    @Caz:

    Fox News has mentioned Israel maybe once or twice in the last week. Their coverage is excellent, accurate, comprehensive, and fair.

    You forgot balanced.

  76. 76.

    Davis X. Machina

    @Amir_Khalid: Resign, and get Biden to resign, so’s we can have President Boehner, is my guess.

    The problem is, you could find the twin of that posted on RedState and DemocraticUnderground.

    A taste for grand, gestural politics that accomplishes nothing isn’t the province of any one party.

  77. 77.

    Violet

    @kdaug:

    If the House of Saud is next

    If (when?) this happens, it’s going to be a whole different world. Where will all those excessively rich Saudi princes go? They gonna go live with W. on his ranch in Crawford?

  78. 78.

    Amir_Khalid

    @Yutsano: I think you’re trying to think of Al-Azhar University, the oldest university in the world according to the Guinness Book of World Records.

  79. 79.

    Yutsano

    @Violet: Dubai. Two-thirds of their wealth is there anyway. And they pay off their populace well to keep them under wraps. Which is much easier to do when there’s only a few million of them.

    @Amir_Khalid: Thank you for that. I knew someone here would know what I was talking about. And it is an actual university too, they do more than just train imams there.

  80. 80.

    BGinCHI

    @Violet:

    They gonna go live with W. on his ranch in Crawford block in his gated community in Dallas?

    There, fixed. And the answer is, well, prolly yes. No, wait, even our taxes are too high. Something in a Cayman maybe?

  81. 81.

    Violet

    @Yutsano:
    But Dubai is right in the midst of all this chaos? Will it stay calm? It’s been built by slave labor. I don’t know how long that dam will hold. Although most of the slaves are imported.

    @BGinCHI:
    I wonder how long the Saudi princes would last if they don’t have access to their oil money? I’m sure the really rich ones will be fine. But the lesser ones? Life could get very interesting for them.

  82. 82.

    Bob Loblaw

    @Alex S.:

    Maybe the problem is that the uprising doesn’t have a leader and no organization.

    That is one of the thornier problems, yes. The Arab world has done an atrocious job of developing credible underground non-Islamist democratic opposition groups in the face of autocratic powers.

    @jwb:

    My personal take is that Mubarak is already toast and he’s being kept around just long enough that the military and other powers that be can get their ducks in a row to have a more or less orderly transition.

    I quite agree, but the key is weathering this period out to cobble whatever shreds of credibility can be kept together for the new succession plan later this year.

    Hosni Mubarak was unlikely to remain president beyond 2011 much longer anyway. He is rather old. Obviously, if any plans for a dynastic succession were in order, those are gone now. There won’t be a President Gamal. But the military has every intention of keeping the core security state in place, regardless of what civilian veneer they have to wrap it in. That’s why the Suleiman appointment makes so much sense. It’s risky to have to tie him so directly to Mubarak, but the regime doesn’t really have much of a choice otherwise.

  89. 89.

    The Dangerman

    @Yutsano:

    Jordan might be the next domino to fall.

    May have to cue up some Genesis, Invisible Touch edition.

    So, both Arab countries that have peace treaties with Israel. Fascinating.

    Edit: For any Genesis fans out there, the song I’m referencing was written by Tony Banks when he was in Beirut (or someplace in Lebanon) during one of those times when shit was going down.

  90. 90.

    Yutsano

    @Violet: Running the tally in my head, we’ve got Tunisia, Lebanon, Yemen, Egypt, and now Jordan is starting to experience unrest. If I’m a Saud or an Assad I’m telling my secret police to start quashing things now before shit really gets serious.

    (Although I question how much trouble the House of Saud is really in. They made a deal with the Wahhabi leaders to be the guardians of Mecca in exchange for expanding their sect of Islam, so they have some air of legitimacy to them. Then again Abdullah of Jordan makes a similar claim. Plus his stepmom is teh awesome.)

  91. 91.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    I only hope its not like Iran, where the revolution early on attracted wide segments of opposition to the government, but had religious nutjobs take it over pretty quickly.

    As far as shitty outcomes are concerned, I’d ra

  92. 92.

    El Cid

    @kdaug: I think the level of US response to any threat to Sa’udi stability — such that the outcome is not pre-determined — would be stunningly intense. A threat to the Sa’udi regime would not just be passively observed.

  93. 93.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    I only hope its not like Iran, where the revolution early on attracted wide segments of opposition to the government, but had religious nutjobs take it over pretty quickly.

    As far as shitty outcomes are concerned, I’d rather have another Sadat than a religious shitocracy.

    *of course it helps that Egypt is Sunni and not Shia, and hence doesnt have the hierarchial religious establishment Iran does.

  95. 95.

    PeakVT

    Does everything always have to be about the United States and Israel?

    I think the protesters are motivated by internal reasons, but Mubarak has been able to survive for the last 30 because the US pays him protection money on behalf of Israel. Without the payoff, I doubt Egypt would have made and maintained peace with Israel. OTOH, the US and Israel are not particularly relevant in the other North African countries, except to the extend that Islamists can exploit passions about the I/P conflict to gain supporters.

  96. 96.

    de stijl

    @BGinCHI:

    Fucking Reason, how does it work?

    On blegged donations. I know, I know, I’m horrible. But it is so fucking funny that a libertarian magazine / foundation cannot make a profit and subsists on donations and Koch subsidies.

    Reason, the Invisible Hand has spoken. You are not profitable.

  97. 97.

    The Dangerman

    @Yutsano:

    Although I question how much trouble the House of Saud is really in.

    From what I’m hearing from multiple sources, the economic forces driving Egypt aren’t in play in Saudi Arabia; the wealth has trickled down sufficiently well to prevent it.

  100. 100.

    TOP123

    @BGinCHI: Ha! Good one…

    But in all seriousness, since the wingnuts of course value the lives of all, but seem to glaze over whenever the Middle East, Arabs, and brown people in general are mentioned, I would provide a serious back of the envelope estimate: c. 10% of the population of Egypt, or, in USA! terms, probably a fair amount more than the Christian population of Teapatriotic Arizona… or even, (gasp) Old Virginny…

  101. 101.

    Yutsano

    @PeakVT:

    except to the extend that Islamists can exploit passions about the I/P conflict to gain supporters.

    Real big this here. The Arab League gives a shit ton of lip service to the Palestinian cause, but when it comes down to actual action…they just go back to lip service. Think about it: if the Saudis really wanted to improve the conditions of the Palestinian people, they could pay to feed and house every single one for decades and barely notice the dent in their pocketbooks. Keeping them downtrodden and oppressed makes for great bright shiny objects to keep their populace focused on other things besides their own internal misery. I really do feel for the Palestinians, they really don’t have a true advocate on the national stage.

  103. 103.

    Amir_Khalid

    @Yutsano: Plus, if the Palestinians ever got their own state for reals, rather than whatever feeble excuse for one Israel is willing to grant, they’d be just one more member of the dysfunctional family that is the Arab League.

  104. 104.

    kdaug

    @El Cid:

    Natch.

    There are national interests, and there are NATIONAL FUCKING INTERESTS.

    The extent of our influence and ability to project (with two wars in the neighborhood) remains to be seen.

    Sure as shit don’t envy the big O right now. It’s a tightrope.

  106. 106.

    Cain

    @The Dangerman:

    For all the intelligence and resources thrown into that region, it seems like the U.S. and Israel now find themselves in a rather fucked up set of circumstances; should be fascinating and I hope Obama Congress is smart enough to navigate through the resulting mess.

    FTFY

    The problem has never really been Obama for foreign policy.. the problem has been Congress. They need to educate themselves about what’s going on before opening their mouths.

    cain

  107. 107.

    Darkrose

    The chances of this happening in Saudi Arabia are slim to none. The royals cut their citizens fat checks on a regular basis, which does an awful lot to cut down on any grumbling. Egypt, on the other hand, is a country with massive income inequality and rampaging unemployment; combine that with political repression and…

    Any comparisons are left as an exercise for the reader.

  108. 108.

    General Stuck

    @kdaug:

    Sure as shit don’t envy the big O right now. It’s a tightrope.

    Aside from my status as unrepentent Obot, I can’t think of another American soul better to be in the Oval office right now. Doesn’t hurt him being a Kenyan Muslim with a doctored up birth certificate/wingnut

  110. 110.

    Cain

    @General Stuck:

    If it spreads to Saudi Arabia, that will be when it gets very serious. It is a center, or the center of wahabism there, and with lots of Texas T. It will be harder for us to stand on the sidelines with those things in the mix.
    Reply

    That would be a power keg, that is where the Haaj is. It will be more than just the U.S. who will be concerned. Every muslim in the world will be watching that. We would have to do covert things, we can never do anything else.

    I sure hope that the U.S> is not interfering with this revolution in any way shape or form. It would make a mockery of what Obama talked about in Egypt when he first got elected.

    Obama is the greatest asset we have for muslims. If he says something there will be some chance that people will believe him.

    The world it is changing.. I’ll be interested to see if the ouster happens, what the rest of the Muslim world is going to do. I wonder what’s going on in Pakistan….. (!)

    cain
    cain

  111. 111.

    Cain

    @Bob Loblaw:

    t’s imperative that the military and the police don’t provide a force for the protesters to countervail against. So they just sit back and let the economic and property distress envelop, in the hopes that working class Egyptians come to grudgingly accept Mubarak over anarchy. This while acting covertly to send “state-sponsored” looters out and about to reinforce this growing distress. It’s authoritarianism 101.

    Interestingly enough, the protestors seem to have understand this. They’ve been standing guard over museums and catching looters and then caught them with government tags and promoting it. These guys are pretty intelligent. Someone is doing a good job of organizing.. I think they know the tricks.

    cain

  112. 112.

    BGinCHI

    Twit Revolution: topple Saddam Hussein and then turn the country into a shithole.

    Twitter Revolution: leave it to the people to do what’s best for themselves, avoid Colonialist/Imperialist impulses.

  113. 113.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    @BGinCHI:

    Do you think the Iranian Revolution was what is best for the Iranian people? After all, you even had the spectacle of Carter telling the Shah not to use the military to stop the revolutionaries.

  114. 114.

    Cain

    @Violet:

    Jordan? Holy crap. It’s getting crazy out there.

    I’ve been reading reddit for commentary, they have plenty of expatriates who comment on the news. From what I can tell the Jordan folks are angry at the prime minister for the poor economic situation. It doesn’t have much to do with Israel and they are in fact still happy with the King and Queen of Jordan. So I don’t think you’ll see the monarchy fail considering that protestors are bringing pictures of them to the protests.

    No, I think we might see an ouster of the prime minister though for doing his job poorly. Essentially what we are now seeing is the middle east reacting to the poor economic conditions that riddle the entire area.

    The way it works is that young men have to have jobs before they can marry and with no jobs, means no wife, no future and well no honor. I think this is happening even in Saudi.. that’s the core problem. I think I was reading that they are also horny and having to wait for a marriage that will never happen is driving the younger ones quite crazy.

    cain

  115. 115.

    Chuck Butcher

    NBC’s Richard Engel made a point the other day that the proffessional and labor and social services organizations are heavily influenced by or run by the Muslim Brotherhood. Their advocacy/sponsorship of violence has diminished over the last decade but they sure aren’t anything like supporters of secularism.

    In something like this uprising the one common thread amongst most of the “revolutionaries” is their religion, whether they’re theocrats or not. That link is what gives something like the Muslim Brotherhood a leg up versus any not theology centered group. I’d say the chances of Mubarak being replaced by something secular are real small.*

    *based on multiple degrees in foreign relations, extensive Middle East postings and other imaginary bullshit – ie a guess.

  116. 116.

    Cain

    @Amanda in the South Bay:

    I only hope its not like Iran, where the revolution early on attracted wide segments of opposition to the government, but had religious nutjobs take it over pretty quickly.

    Iran should worry, because I can see the green revolution starting all over again. When the rest of the muslim world is throwing off their leaders.. I can’t imagine Iranians not feeling the same. Their complaints are exactly the same as the arab world.

    Once they lose the fear of their government, it’s pretty much over.

    cain

  117. 117.

    Amir_Khalid

    The House of Saud has been riding a different tiger than Hosni Mubarak. The Sauds’ deal is with Wahabism, fundies who want to keep on living in what they imagine is the Prophet’s pure Islamic world, with everything but his (for its time) progressive sttitude. They keep trying to fend off a catastrophic collision between the 7th century and the 21st, but sooner or later that collision is going to happen.

  118. 118.

    Yutsano

    @Cain:

    It doesn’t have much to do with Israel and they are in fact still happy with the King and Queen of Jordan. So I don’t think you’ll see the monarchy fail considering that protestors are bringing pictures of them to the protests.

    I hope not. Queen Noor is probably one of the coolest royals on the planet. And King Abdullah was on Star Trek: Voyager. So they do a shit ton to stay in touch with the people, at least cosmetically.

  120. 120.

    BGinCHI

    @Amanda in the South Bay: No, I’m not naive and wasn’t generalizing across all revolutions for the last 50 years. Clearly, even toppling an authoritarian gov’t is no guarantee that another won’t take its place. This is a very complicated business. This is also what is so wrong about the neocon version of this: spreading freedom leads to everything in the world looking more American, and if it doesn’t we interfere.

    What makes this even more difficult is a revolutionary movement in a country that is not monolithic (ethnically, religiously, etc.). It’s best to have a process and an evolution of civic institutions, so that some kind of balance can be reached. Unfortunately, into power vacuums rushes a different power, with no guarantee that this is a benign change.

  121. 121.

    Cheryl Rofer

    Here’s a good background piece on Egypt and the grievances leading up to the demonstrations.

    If you’re on Twitter, I recommend following @abuaardvark and @blakehounshell, both of whom know the region and seem to be following an enormous number of people, then retweeting the best of what they see.

  122. 122.

    goatchowder

    Fuck the corporate media.

    If you want to find out what’s going on in Egypt, watch Al Jazeera English online.

  123. 123.

    TOP123

    @Cain: Frighteningly, your last paragraph could be said to apply to East Asia, as well. There are a lot of people there. As well as a growing gender imbalance.

  124. 124.

    Cain

    @Yutsano:

    I hope not. Queen Noor is probably one of the coolest royals on the planet. And King Abdullah was on Star Trek: Voyager. So they do a shit ton to stay in touch with the people, at least cosmetically.

    Huh! From what I understand Jordan has been pretty good to its people. They aren’t Egypt or Yemen.

    I worry about Yemen more than Egypt. That place can turn into an even bigger shithole than it is now.

    I’m also worried about Pakistan.. life hasn’t been good for them and having insanely successful neighbors like China and India is probably not helping.

    cain

  126. 126.

    Yutsano

    @Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again): There have been several attempts to revive the Jordanian economy (tourism, becoming the high tech hub of the ME) but so far not much came from it, mostly because of rampant corruption and cronyism. Plus consider 60% of Jordan’s population is Palestinian and basically has second-class status, and things add up to not ending well.

  127. 127.

    Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)

    @Cain:

    I’m also worried about Pakistan.. life hasn’t been good for them and having insanely successful neighbors like China and India is probably not helping.

    It hasn’t helped that the Punjabi-led military & ISI have managed to dump a lot of the nation’s wealth into a struggle to annex parts of India with Muslim majorities, including- but not limited to- the Indian Punjab.

  130. 130.

    Yutsano

    @Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again): That ratio could be out of date, but that was the last number I heard. Most are in the west on the border with the West Bank/Israel and not in good economic shape. Most actual Jordanians live in either the region around Amman or south where the Petra ruins are. The western part of the country is more or less a big blank.

  131. 131.

    Amanda in the South Bay

    @BGinCHI:

    Egypt really isn’t that religiously diverse-contrary to media reports, the Coptic Orthodox make up…a really freaking small part of the population, just like most Eastern Christian churches in the Middle East. Maybe a hundred years ago, like when Christians probably made up 40% of the population of Constantinople, but as someone who used to live, breath, and shit Eastern Christianity…the Copts are just a really, really small group who simply happen to be the largest Christian sect.

    My impression is that Egypt is overwhelmingly Sunni and doesn’t have the Shiite underclass of laborers that the Gulf States have, but that is just off the top of my head and not balanced by any Wiki or Googlefu.

  132. 132.

    BGinCHI

    @Amanda in the South Bay: I’m not qualified to say whether this is likely, but if the Muslim Brotherhood get control of the gov’t, it’s gonna be a shitstorm. If Mubarak goes, watch the buildup on the borders.

  135. 135.

    CaseyL

    The seeming lull (in intensity, not in numbers) is very interesting. I’m sure a lot of that has to do with there being no real, credible opposition (a situation Mubarek, like other despots, deliberately created by imprisoning, co-opting, or plain killing anyone who could formed a credible opposition).

    I think the lull means no one, including the protesters, know what happens next.

    I’m hoping, very much hoping, that somewhere in Egypt members of the middle- and professional classes are having discussions about who among themselves has the interest and ability to form, or at least take part in, a government. I’m very much hoping Egypt doesn’t wind up with some minor functionary who is, or becomes, as corrupt as the present government.

    Egypt, SFAIK, has no experience with democratic rule. It’s always been strongmen, of varying degrees of ability and charisma. Nasser collapsed and died; Sadat took over after him; and then there was Mubarek. That doesn’t bode well for democratic hopes going forward.

  137. 137.

    Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)

    @Yutsano:

    Dude, coffee is a drink of Arabic origin.

    Umm, dude, that would be Ethiopia. They even have a whole traditional ceremony around coffee (though I believe it was spread to the rest of the world by Arabs through the Trans-Saharan slave trade).

  142. 142.

    Jane2

    Avoid US Cable news like the plague. On CNN, Wolf Blitzer is getting his info from Egypt state tv and the Egyptian ambassador. And if I took a drink every time he mentions Israel, I’d be legless by now.

    Probably the most disheartening thing is that Wolf hasn’t done any fundamental research. He doesn’t have a clue that there are popular opposition groups and other points of view in Egypt, actually suggesting that the newly-minted VP would be somehow acceptable to people.

  145. 145.

    Ed Marshall

    @Jane2:

    CNN is absolutely shameful. Do people understand that Blitzer used to be the editor for AIPAC’s Near East Report? His bullshit only makes sense if you understand that he has an agenda.

  150. 150.

    mclaren

    Here are some provocative links: Don Vandergriff says:

    the real reason the people are demonstrating and beginning to revolt is unfortunately, a flavor to come. They are doing so because their populations have far outstripped resources, especially in Egypt. The government there, to keep the people quiet gave jobs to the educated, and free grain to the masses. But, then never address family planning. It, like us, wants to live in fantasy world of unlimited, but irresponsible population growth will be maintain by technology. Well that dream is coming to an end.

    This is the problem with the other nations as well, instead of facing reality, they keep dreaming.

    My prediction is this will only get worse when fuel prices go up so far to keep food deliveries from happening.

    Source: “What the media is not telling you about the riots in Tunisa, Egypt, Jordan and Yemen”

    This analysis from STRATFOR points out that

    Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is 82 years old and ailing amid a protracted succession crisis, and thus the presidency itself has become a point of competition, raising questions on where the country’s various armed factions under the Defense Ministry, Interior Ministry and individual units and leaders therein place their loyalty.

    The first and perhaps most important part of the Egyptian security apparatus is the military. The army — by far the largest and most significant branch — consists of some 300,000 troops, though a full two-thirds are conscripts. (Another 375,000 are considered reserves, at least on paper, but it is far from clear that they can be fully called up, and certainly not in a rapid fashion.) The armed forces and military intelligence fall under the Defense Ministry. The military has long had strong representation within the regime, with the last three heads of state (Mubarak, Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser) being officers or former officers when they took charge. And even before the protests, the military had used the succession crisis to reassert its influence.

    The military is also the strongest and best equipped, though for conventional and armored warfare rather than law enforcement or riot control purposes, i.e. it is trained and equipped to kill and certainly has the heavy weaponry to dominate other security forces. It has now reportedly been dispatched, ostensibly by Mubarak, to Cairo and several other cities not to reinforce internal security forces best equipped for riot control but to replace them and take the lead in securing the cities. Though it varies by region, the general population does have a more favorable opinion of the military than the domestic security forces, which are more broadly despised due to their active and ongoing role in the management of internal dissent and day-to-day security. Indeed, there have even been reports that the military arriving to replace these security forces has actually been received quite well by many protesters — meaning that the presence of the military, rather than the exercise of military force, may be having a quelling influence on the unrest.

    The military ultimately forms the foundation of the regime and stability in the country. STRATFOR has been monitoring increasing tensions in recent months between Mubarak and the military elite over the looming issue of succession. There are several key questions to ask:

    Is the military elite unified?

    What is the military aiming for? It is increasingly looking like the military is viewing Mubarak as a liability? If so, what is their plan?

    Does the military command the loyalty of the other security services?

    On the last question, the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and Republican Guard are closest to the president in terms of organizational loyalty, but even they are increasingly appearing more interested in assuring a place in the new order rather than defending the old.

    Interior Ministry forces include the police, the General Directorate for State Security Investigations, the National Guard and the Central Security Force. Of these, the paramilitary Central Security Force is the largest and best equipped, numbering 325,000 (larger than the army, though also with conscripts) and equipped with wheeled armored vehicles. The National Guard is roughly 60,000 strong and similarly equipped. These forces have been at the forefront of internal security campaigns and are more familiar with and equipped for the work of riot control roles that will be most in demand in the current crisis.

    If the government destabilizes, the units with forces in the capital or in a position to be deployed are of critical importance. And so here, individual commanders’ connections, loyalties and ambitions can all quickly come into play, as can their troops’ loyalty to them.

    (subscription only)

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