Interesting essay about the future of health care if it is struck down that points out that since the Republicans basically torched the earth during the HCR debate, declaring everything to be socialism, including positions that were the GOP’s for the last three decade, there really is not much the GOP can do other than give lip service to tort reform and allow the insurance industry to do to consumers what the credit card industry has done.
Well played, wingnuts.
GregB
They are a libertarian anarchist cult bent on destruction of civilization. As long as a small number of them get to keep all of the money they’ll be happy.
cleek
sure. but it’s not like anybody was actually paying attention to the merits of the points made during the “debate”. as far as anyone can tell, the GOP made out handsomely for all their lying and misrepresentation.
if the GOP somehow manages to wreck ACA, few people will really know what they lost. they’ll probably think they’re returning to some kind of Golden Age of Health Care.
Very Reverend Crimson Fire of Compassion
The outcome of a nihilistic approach is pretty clearly predictable over the long term. This is a feature, not a bug, for the neocon mythology of a federal government incapable of solving any problem effectively.
Violet
@cleek:
A lot of the provisions haven’t kicked in yet, since it isn’t 2014. If the law goes down now, it will affect fewer people than if it goes down in 2014.
General Stuck
My own impression is that the one and only thing the wingnuts are concerned with is winning the next election, and anything that might conceivably hamper that singular purpose is to be attacked and destroyed if possible. Humpty Dumpty politics, holding onto the wall by their dirty little finger nails.
Kryptik
I just find it embarrassing and demoralizing that we’re continually out-gunned and out-won by folks whose arguments are essentially nationwide trolling. I mean, Christ, you see the kind of trolls we get…and they’re fucking winning, because their side, inexplicably, ALWAYS seems to fucking win not because of the validity of their argument or ideology, but because they know how to fucking tear everyone else down by fiat.
I just….god, fucking hell.
Alan
Back in the early 90s all Rush Limbaugh and the conservatives of the GOP did was complain about tort reform and how the Dems were controlled by the trial lawyer lobby. Then when they took complete control of government we never heard a whimper. Conservative leaders are so full of shit; and their followers who scream about tort reform are clueless.
cleek
@Violet:
sure. but some things have kicked in: really nice things, in fact.
fuck. people don’t even know Obama lowered their taxes.
Steve
I just don’t see this being a problem for them. When the time comes they’ll just flip flop, lie, and twist themselves into pretzels to show how the things they opposed now are somehow different from any ideas they may come up with in the future, no matter how similar the policies may actually be. This is what they do. IOIYAR, forever.
Of course, that’s assuming they would undertake any meaningful efforts to change health care, which they likely won’t. They simply don’t give shit about anything like this.
Kryptik
@Steve:
This. I mean, how many people seem totally immune to the reminder that the mandate was a fucking GOP idea in the fucking first place?
Cliff
It’s nice to have the arguments for health care reform put together in a succinct, readable piece, but really, there’s not much new there.
One thing I didn’t realize though, for whatever reason, is that people will be seeing or are seeing tax breaks through the ACA, and those back taxes will have to get collected if the ACA is repealed.
(Please note: I already knew that my taxes were lower thanks to the stimulus, I’m not one of the mouth breathers who think taxes have gone up.)
BGinCHI
If the Dems can’t make major hay out of this in the next election cycles, then they’re too fucking stupid to vote for. People and small businesses can’t go on with the broken HC system, and so it has to be fixed. The GOP does not have a long-term strategy for this and so they’ll just continue to get 30% of the vote except in House elections.
Violet
@cleek:
I know that. You know that. The average person doesn’t. Why? Because Republicans lie, lie, lie. The MSM picks it up and runs with it in “some say” and “he said/she said” type of coverage. The Dems don’t call them out and say, “They are lying” but instead refute the lies with facts and information, thus giving credence to the argument in the first place.
We can’t count on the MSM to do anything about this situation since their goal is ratings. The Republicans won’t change. The Dems can change and can start addressing the emotional core of the issue. Republicans scare people, so start calling them out on that. “He is lying and is only telling you that to scare you. Americans are smarter than that and don’t scare that easily.” Statements like that get to the emotional core of the issue without allowing the Republicans to set the narrative with a lie.
But who am I kidding. That’ll never happen.
The Dangerman
Feature, not a bug. The Right wants to privatize EVERYTHING (except the military) and if that means the “have nots” are fucked, well, another feature, not a bug. Privatization means lower government expenditures which means lower taxes which means greater income inequality which means the “have nots” are fucked yet again. Of course, “have nots” being fucked means more people that will work for minimum wage (as long as that lasts), which means more money for the haves to contribute (through CU) to the Right.
General Stuck
@Kryptik:
Sometimes it’s not the message, but the receiving ears that hear what they want to hear.
Gustopher
It’s times like this that I remind myself that if the Republican congress-critters were not to die in a fire, but simply be horribly maimed in a fire, their health insurance would do everything possible to drop them at the side of the road while they’re still smoldering.
cathyx
I will not believe that our corporate-loving supreme court will uphold this latest decision. The insurance industry has too much power.
Violet
@Gustopher:
No it wouldn’t. They have government health care.
It’s their relatives, like cousins and brothers, etc. who aren’t on the government health care, who would be dropped should such a MIAF incident happen.
Barb (formerly Gex)
I think everyone should have to be taxed on their company provided health care – just like gays.
Dennis SGMM
I’ve ceased to be amazed at the way the GOP ignores the fact that the more uninsured there are the higher the cost of health care insurance and the higher the cost of health insurance the more uninsured there will be. At the rate that we’re going (Blue Cross is raising its rates 59% for some Californians) the only people with access to medical care will be either in prison or working for the government.
Texas Dem
What’s happening right now to health care reform in the courts is a perfect example of how one can win the battle but lose the war. There’s no way to make a free market approach to health care work without an individual mandate. If that goes down the drain, the only way to achieve universal coverage is through some sort of Canadian-style single payer health care system. And since the status quo ante is clearly unsustainable, single payer is the likely outcome if these lawsuits are successful. It will take a few years, but there’s no question that’s where we end up (and by the way, I think David Frum said something along these same lines the other day, so there are at least a few sane conservatives who can see the big picture).
J.W. Hamner
I don’t agree… they would come up with another plan… if current SMRT wingnut talk is any guide, my guess is it would focus on eliminating the employer tax deduction coupled with catastrophic coverage and health savings accounts. It would absolutely suck and be essentially immoral, but if history tells us anything it’s that every time conservatives beat back HCR they succeed in moving the conversation much further to the right. We’d all be dancing in the streets if we got Nixon’s proposal.
Maude
@The Dangerman:
Bush years, Blackwater. That worked out well, didn’t it?
Repubs want a class system where it’s all for them and the rest of us, well, too bad.
Tsulagi
Pretty much. If ACA is struck I look forward to Bachmann stepping up to lead today’s R-way. Her signature legislation titled something like “The Awesomest Job Creation Free Enterprise Solution to Health Care Act.” Crazy Eyes beaming and proud that unlike ACA her bill is one page long. Triple spaced. Huge font: TAX CUTS! NO REGULATIONS!
The nutters go wild.
Chris
@GregB:
Yeah, that’s… basically it. Wish there were a more optimistic way of putting it.
Here’s a depressing take on the future of the country (http://empirenotes.org/?p=166). Key paragraph is this one;
That’s the problem in a nutshell. We’ve been cutting taxes since Reagan without reducing the welfare state because, when push comes to shove, nobody wants it. You could easily solve a huge part of the problem simply by raising taxes on the rich again, but that’s the one thing the system simply won’t allow. In the absence of that, we’re just going to get more and more fucked.
Cacti
@Texas Dem:
Agreed.
The downside to that calculation is, it could likely be another 15-20 years before the issue gets touched again, and many people would die preventable deaths in the interim.
Dennis SGMM
@Tsulagi:
You forgot the words “Patriotic,” “Rights,” and”Freedom.”
Keith G
Yay! Publius. One of the internet’s best.
Violet
@Texas Dem:
Who’s losing the battle and who’s losing the war in this scenario?
BGinCHI
@Chris: Great comment. All of the benefits of society without the responsibilities.
I hope they miss it when it’s gone….
Suffern ACE
@Dennis SGMM: Nah. In reality those “gold plated” government plans are going to be gone. That way, the next time around, we don’t have to hear about them in debates. “Gold plated” plans for undeserving lazy government union workers. Their “gold plated” pensions. Only the wealthy should have that.
Your job is going to India because your health insurance costs as much as 2 middle class laborers and you will either give that up or accept…nothing.
This is a problem that should have been solved years ago that we will not solve until the expensive middle class laborers accept that they are really the working class schmucks that they piss on and work for those wages. That is the GOP plan and I can see why they are reluctant to talk about that solution.
Tsulagi
@Dennis SGMM: Yeah, probably also “Constitution.”
Barb (formerly Gex)
@BGinCHI: They are more than happy to have mini-societies in their gated communities and keep the serfs outside the walls.
See also: gentrification.
Chris
@J.W. Hamner:
I don’t know all the details, but… it had a public option, from what I understand. Why the F didn’t we accept it?
Lysana
@Chris:
At least part of the problem was the progressives in Congress wanted single-payer or nothing. They won.
robertdsc-PowerBook
@Chris:
Ted Kennedy said no.
Chris
@Lysana:
Well, that was an epic fail.
Mnemosyne
@cleek:
They’re going to figure it out pretty soon. G did his taxes the other night (we file separately) and was astounded to see he’s getting an $1,100 refund thanks to the Making Work Pay credit. Normally his refund is more like $300, if anything.
Of course, they’re going to credit it all to John Boehner, but they’re not going to be able to play the “my taxes went up!” game unless they’re flat-out liars.
Texas Dem
@Violet:
There’s no question that a Supreme Court decision striking down HCR is a win for the right–in the short term. But in the long term, it’s a disaster. Poor people aren’t going to stop getting sick just because Anthony Kennedy decides that a free market-based health care reform plan doesn’t pass constitutional muster. Furthermore, since we’re a civilized society, the uninsured will have to be treated.
In the end, that’s why the libertarian approach to health care just won’t work. Unless you’re willing to let the uninsured die in the streets, you basically already have universal coverage via the emergency room, and that’s the most expensive form of universal coverage imaginable. That pressure will slowly erode the system until, at some point in the not too distant future, large employers will start dropping their coverage to save themselves. At that point we will have a collective OMFG! moment, and from there it’s a mad scramble to some sort of single payer system. It’s only a matter of time.
J.W. Hamner
@Chris:
Same as it ever was: it wasn’t single payer.
Ruckus
@Dennis SGMM:
Agreed.
It’s hard for conservatards to see or hear anything when their heads are surrounded by large intestine.
Elizabelle
@Violet:
your comment 13: I wish it would happen.
The Fourth Branch
John- Thank you very much for linking to my article! It is much appreciated. I love Balloon Juice and am honored to have a link from here.
@TexasDem: I think you are right. If HCR is stricken by the courts, people will quickly recognize that the status quo ante is a far worse alternative. Hopefully, that leads to single payer or something similar.
Violet
@Texas Dem:
I’m not so sure about that. Why do we have to do that? Are we really civilized?
But they already are. They are afraid to go the ER because they know the bills will do them in. The ER is last resort health care and lots of times people don’t even go there.
It’s a mad scramble to something. I’m not sure if it’ll be single payer or not. Could be more like the Netherlands’ system where the health insurance companies are more like utilities.
The Fourth Branch
@TexasDem:
By the way, although I think the end result could be single payer, the problem, of course, is the length of time it would take to get there and the lives that would inevitably be lost in the process needlessly. It’s a lot to risk, particularly when there is a perfectly workable structure in place right now- if we can keep it.
Suffern ACE
@Violet: Meh. It’s a mad scramble to public hospitals and clinics for the poor and middle classwith a finely funded set of private hospitals for the upper middle class and wealthy, primarily in urban centers.
Maybe your doctor will take chickens in lieu of payment. If he does, you’ll know what class you belong to.
Buck
You’re kidding us aren’t you, John? I mean, get real! Five minutes after knocking down HCR, repubes will go on the offensive about how Obama and the demonrats failed America – not them.
And idiot Americans will slurp it right up just like they’ve been doing.
Jack
The condoms and lubricant are on aisle 4 in the drugstore, and I think the hemorrhoid pain relief cream is on aisle 6, if you want to plan ahead for what will get done to you.
Mr. Blink
That was an outstanding essay. Short, concise, and well laid out. They should pass out copies to all the assholes in Congress so they can read it, then read it aloud to the voters. It cracks me up that the repubs are so pissed off about provisions in the health bill that THEY wanted in there. Fuckers.
lovable liberal
Republicans have always been at war with universal health care.
lol
@Chris:
And firebaggers didn’t learn anything from that mistake.
jcricket
There’s a line in the Matrix where the Architect (part of the machines) say, “there are levels of survival we are prepared to accept”.
In other words – Republicans have no problem kicking the can down the road, fucking us a little bit at a time, and making it so that we don’t have an OMFG! or Egypt-style-revolt.
They don’t care if it’d actually be better for them (rising tide lifts all boats) to help the middle class. All they care about is next week or next year’s income statement. If in 20 years the whole thing comes crashing down, they’ll have enjoyed themselves and who cares about 20 years from now.
We’re fucking doomed people.
Wile E. Quixote
@Barb (formerly Gex):
I was reading an article on Egypt where one of the protesters said something t the effect of “let them go to their gated communities, that way we’ll know where they are”.
The Other Chuck
@The Dangerman:
You haven’t been paying attention, have you?
First off, the suppliers of the military ARE private.
Secondly, the people pulling the trigger are increasingly so.
You think they have any qualms about giving fighter jets to Blackwater, if they could manage it?
bob h
and allow the insurance industry to do to consumers what the credit card industry has done.
Which would be, in time, just to go out of business as their increasingly unaffordable and inadequate product is dropped by more and more people.
Chris
@The Other Chuck:
It’s my suspicion that at some point in the future, we’ll end up seeing an entire war being contracted out to the private sector.
Not obvious, Gulf War I type wars, but the kind of messy wars with no clear exit strategy that we want to get involved in but are too politically risky (like Vietnam in the sixties or Central America in the eighties or Somalia in the nineties or today). We get one or more PMCs to send in “advisors” and the like for the local government, and then the entire thing snowballs from there, but the military and CIA themselves are never involved (at least not directly).
Executive Outcomes did the private army concept in Africa during the nineties, and there’s just too much money and too much opportunity for someone not to resurrect it.
terraformer
The recent uprisings in the ME has shown Al Jazeera to be the current incarnation of what old-school journalism used to be in this country: on-the-ground reporters with editorial free-reign.
One can only hope that its success in terms of demand for news and reporting in the US lately will lead to its becoming widely available here, and subsequent success at showing how journalism should be done – on issues such as HCR (imagine how refreshing that would be!) – may shame the US corporate media to take a long look at themselves.
Ah, who am I kidding?
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Texas Dem:
I think we may have to face the unpleasant possibility that we are not in fact a civilized society, and that the uninsured will be left to rot and die in the street. They will become as “invisible” as homeless veterans.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@The Fourth Branch:
How will they realize this? What will be the basis on which they will make a comparison between present reality (however badly it sucks) and a much better but imaginary alternative? People can’t agitate for something they can’t imagine, and the right wing news media has kidnapped our collective imagination.