What has stood out in a lot of American commentary over the last week is an embarrassing giddiness about the upheaval in Egypt. It’s partly the usual reckless American enthusiasm for anything that can be described as “people power,” but there is an eagerness to get on the “right side of history” that resembles nothing so much as a rush to mouth the most preciously politically correct pieties. There are not “right” and “wrong” sides of history. Indeed, the implied notion of historical inevitability in that phrase ignores everything about history that matters–its contingency, its uncertainty, and the importance of human agency.
There have also been the Iraq war supporters desperately trying to claim credit on behalf of Bush administration policies. Fortunately for them, what is happening in Egypt has nothing to do with those policies, because the outcome may prove to be as disastrous for all involved as the invasion of Iraq was. What is telling is that not even the Bush administration was foolish enough to continue pushing democracy promotion in Egypt. We have repeatedly heard the laughable counterfactuals that if only Obama had embraced the “freedom agenda” and publicly hectored Mubarak the Egyptian people would not now be rising up, as if fewer restrictions on secular and liberal candidates and free elections were going to lower the price of bread, slash inflation, magically produce more jobs, or reduce mass poverty. This idea would almost be comical if it weren’t shaping policy debate and pressuring the government to make foolish decisions.
Again, this has really stood out to me, as well, and I think maybe I am just really, really leery after having had too much of the neocon kool-aid at the beginning of the last decade and got so many things so very wrong, but this is the third or fourth time I’ve watched what seems like everyone around me go bonkers screaming “freedom” without thinking much about what was going on. It happened during the last election, when John McCain and the snowbilly got all giddy over Georgia, but fortunately the partisan nature of elections kept most liberals somewhat sane. Then we had the Iranian nonsense, where everyone went nuts and changed their blog colors green, impervious to the notion that lots of people were going to die when the uprising was crushed. Then this.
I think there are some personality traits at play, too. People, in general, like to be a part of big things, and with the media hype, everyone gets to play along. Additionally, everyone likes an underdog. On top of that, bloggers and twitter afficionados like new content, and this is new and sexy. I think a lot of liberals associate with young students and educated professionals taking the streets. Finally, I think the fact that many Americans think “democracy” and associate it with the United States, and if only the protestors win, they will be holding elections and it will be like America with Muslim people. People fail to recognize that a free country with an open democracy means they are free to elect leaders who hate the United States (see Hamas, also too), which, in many cases, is a quite rational hatred for the things we do. Whether it be our constant meddling in foreign affairs, our continuous bombing and drone campaigns and near-permanent war, etc. And that doesn’t even get into the joy that corporate America has bestowed on all the people around the world who were “fortunate” enough to be born poor and living on top of oil, diamonds, or something else we want. The upside is that the last decade has demonstrated that we are also willing to do quite awful and illegal things to American citizens, too, so we are now at least equal opportunity offenders.
Put all that together, add in the notion that any time anything happens anywhere there is this odd expectation that the President “do something,” and you get the reactions we’ve seen the past two weeks.
freelancer
I’d rather cry “Havoc!” Looking at the media landscape, it seems more apropos.
lamh32
It gets worse John, Tweety’s been on a tear all day thx to something Mike Hucakabee said, that “we” i.e. the Obama administration is being to mean and disrespectful towards Muburak….
Tweety actually asked Andrea Mitchell, if we “are doing right by Muburak”. Mitchell’s answer “YES WE ARE”. Tweety’s been trying all day to get someone to agree with him that we are not treating Muburak with the respect that a “friend of the US deserves”
KG
the US was born of a revolution, ergo, all revolutions are good because they are about democracy and the will of the people. until they are not, like in France and Iran. But let’s not talk about those.
Tom Hilton
I’ve found the right-wing response really schizophrenic (I mean, more schizophrenic than usual): on the one hand there are the people you describe, and on the other there are the people freaking out about a Muslim Brotherhood state determined to annihilate Israel, and blathering on about how Obama ‘lost’ Egypt. (They are united, of course, in their belief that either way Obama is at fault.)
Superluminar
I hear what you’re saying. I was 6 when the Berlin wall came down, and in some small respect being part of this is like feeling somehow like we’re part of a major historical event. Not sure that makes a great deal of sense but it’s like all these revolutions in the middle east are an expression of who we all are as 21st Century global citizens.
I really hope it doesn’t end in bloodshed – I was more optimistic before but the fact Mubarak hasn’t left yet suggests the army maybe isn’t too keen on the protests.
Violet
It seems like President Obama is “doing something” but he’s not doing it in public so the thundering keyhordes and pundits can pick it apart like the vultures they are.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
I’m hopeful about Egypt, but I also realize that historically speaking, successful revolutions are rare, and they’re almost always bloody, very bloody, so even if Egypt does manage to get rid of Mubarak and get something that resembles a democratic republic, it’s going to take a long time and be a very messy process even in the best circumstance. So no unicorns or happy dances here–the best case scenario is still a big fucking mess for the people who are living there, even if, in the long run, it turns out better.
KG is right that the typical American view is that we did revolution and so revolution is good until it isn’t (I’d thrown Vietnam and Cuba in as good examples too), but part of the problem is that we don’t have any real sense of just how bloody our own revolution was, and how divided the colonists were over the issue. Our magical view of our own history is really unhelpful in cases like this one.
JGabriel
Larison:
Of course not. You have to lower taxes first.
.
demkat620
I don’t know what the right thing to say or do here. I just don’t want to see a massive crackdown where people get hurt or killed.
This situation is beyond complicated and maybe if we didn’t blow our intelligence wad on Iraq, we might have a better clue what to do if anything.
BettyPageisaBlonde
Revolutions are kind of like the roofies of politics.
demkat620
BTW, Tweety is an assclown.
Ooparts
I’m on the fence as to what’s happening in Egypt. I think it could go good or bad. Nevertheless, I maintain that people have a right to shape their own countries, and things like what are happening in Egypt now are not something the US should go around MAKING happen.
IM
@lamh32:
You have to admit if the last 31 years of US policy were right, that makes sense. After all the was a trusted friend and pillar of stability until now and now he just should go.
Tweety is in a curious way more consistent then the rest.
pragmatism
tweety and huck. “winning the early afternoon”. in the name of ratings.
lamh32
@demkat620:
In his “final thought” of the show Tweety said that President Obama is doing as good a job as he can navigating this crisis.
Wait, Tweety, didn’t you just spend the first 30 min of Hardball, saying the admin current approach to the situation was direspectful to Muburak.
Tweety has go to have multiple personality disorders.
Suffern ACE
I watched that Sunday program with Sam, George and Cokie this weekend and they were joined by some guy from Al Jazeera. I got he distinct impression that no one knew what they were talking about. Maybe the guy from Al Jazeera would know more, but all the questions to him were “Hasn’t Al Jazeera’s coverage been really good?” There is a reason why I don’t watch those shows. I hope that there is another round of discussions taking place someplace else amongst more talented people who have better insight. I get worried sometimes that those discussions are in fact the only one’s our leaders have and what we see isn’t a show meant to keep us tuned in. I certainly hope no one influential watches them.
KG
@Brian S (formerly Incertus): I think the optimal solution would be Mubarak leaving and there being some sort of UN presence (granted, given their track record, not always the best scenario) until elections are held.
Ash Can
Obama and Clinton are doing the best thing they can do by, basically, not doing anything (other than, apparently, suggesting to Mubarak that things really are too far gone and that he shouldn’t prolong the inevitable). They took over from an administration that had been following a spectacularly shitty foreign policy, and they (unlike their predecessors) are smart enough to realize that at this point any direct intervention they could make would do nothing but fuck things up. The armchair quarterbacks can carry on all they want. The fact remains that the US’s realistic options in this are extremely limited, especially with the US coming off a stint of being even more of an international pariah than usual.
lamh32
@IM:
Yeah, but still Tweety thinks that if we were “nicer” maybe then Muburak would have agreed to leave earlier.
really tweety, if we were nicer than Muburak then he would have said, “Ok, since ya’ll are so nice, I’ll leave”
Plz!
Redshift
I just watch and hope everything turns out for the better. And really, it seems pretty weirdly inconsistent to complain this morning that CNN is no longer providing wall-to-wall coverage and complain this afternoon that people interested in politics are paying too much attention.
I agree that most bloggers and pundits seem incapable of grasping that it’s not about us, though. But while it lasts, I’m grateful for an opportunity for Americans to learn geography that isn’t a war or natural disaster.
Brian S (formerly Incertus)
@KG: As long as they were asking for the UN presence–I think that if you push it on them from outside, it’s not going to be successful. I’m hopeful but not optimistic. It’s the safer bet.
Redshift
@lamh32: I suspect as part of the non-public diplomacy they offered him a very nice retirement package.
Blue Carolinian
Sorry, but I smell the hand of our govt both in this and in Tunisia.
lamh32
Oh good lord, CNN. people are always bitchin’ about Obama waiting too long to speak, so now that he will be speaking within the hours now Blitzer, Gergen et al are “surprised he’s speaking” especially since an hour before Blitzer et al were wondering if Obama was gonna speak on the subject.
Ughh CNN.
RP
Great post. You summed up the situation really well IMO. (Posts 9 and 12 also capture my feelings about the situation.)
lamh32
@Redshift: I can see that, but why the heck would Tweety think the State Dept or the prez would let everyone know that they were gonna do that.
The one thing different about this admin and the last is that this admin for good or bad are NOT into showboating. You won’t see Obama I’m assuming giving ultimatums to Muburak and the Egypt people like Bush did for Saddam.
JGabriel
John Cole:
I may be proven wrong down the line, but this feels different. Even if the reformers were permitted to win the election in Iran, they were never going to get rid of ayatollah authority and oversight.
In Egypt, the protesters might actually get the democracy they’re asking for, ala the Manilla parallel that Krugman hypothesized. That might not be great for Israel, and the Egyptians may find democracy disappointing and often corrupt — as citizens in democracies do — but it may be slightly better for most Egyptians than what they have now.
.
JPL
@lamh32: Pretty please goes a long way.
cathyx
I think Americans just have a hard time minding their own business.
El Cid
I can’t predict the future. But it’s not, in fact, irrational to see large segments of national populations expressing their unwillingness to continue to be ruled by a repressive, undemocratic authoritarian who’s in power and has been for 30 years.
There may be no cause to be “giddy”, and there’s certainly a danger — as there always is — that the departure of a miserable repressive regime is replaced by something more dangerous (in ways relating to actual interests of varying world citizens, less so for the ‘interests’ of the US foreign policy establishment).
It could be more repressive on that same people.
But people take risks. Taking risks to oppose one nasty, corrupt, anti-democratic bastard in power for so many years in large part due to the funding by the world’s superpower is no guarantee that they’ll be happy with the results.
Or that the protests of millions are echoed by the rest of the population. Sometimes such movements aren’t supported by other, often poorer and working class sectors. Such arguments were realistically made in the case of Iran’s protests not so long ago. Such would be the case for more large protests against Hugo Chavez.
Giddiness is not really justified, and our media continues to be as stupid as it usually is when it’s not following US foreign policy establishment lines as robotically as it usually does.
But there certainly are a ton of people in the region hoping that the current chain of populist rebellions against authoritarianism have good results to the encrusted regimes of that regime.
Svensker
I hope it all works out without more bloodshed and I’m hopeful that the Egyptian people will get a more representative, less oppressive government. Also, I’m hoping that Obama’s people were not responsible for the tone deaf idea of Mubarak hanging around but not running again. I mean, WTF? If that idea came from O’s administration, then they really are a bunch of empty suits.
lamh32
@JPL:
It barely does with my 11 year old nephew. I doubt if it does with a man who has for the last 30 years have had ultimate power over his minions and citizens.
But I could be wrong. Maybe Obama et al should offered Muburak an all expense paid spa vacation and then just find a way to not let him back into Egypt. I’m guessing that won’t work.
Gregory
Ironically, many of those same Americans don’t want America with Muslim people.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
I’m worried about what might come of this — and, by the way, what might come of Tunisia, as well — but the truth is that the people who are doing this have already been living through bloody times.
It’s bloody living under a brutal dictator. (Indeed, it’s been bloody in Egypt since literally forever). It’s bloody and it’s soul-crushing — in rising up, at least, there is hope.
And not that I have any say in the matter, but I can imagine being an Egyptian (and by the way John, it’s much, much more than young students and educated professionals taking the streets. When you’ve filled Tahrir Square to bursting with people, it’s a lot more than students and professionals) and thinking that I would be willing to take the risk.
As an American who is a very big believer in the notion of “liberty and justice for all,” all I can reasonably do is support them in their efforts and wish them the best.
IM
@lamh32:
Well, now that doesn’t makes any sense. Mubarak has other worries, closer to home right now. The nuances of american utterances don’t matter that much right now.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@Brian S (formerly Incertus): Our magical view of our own history is really unhelpful in cases like this one. This.
JPL
@lamh32: Or a trip to a Holiday Inn.
The new right wing meme seems to be that the President didn’t fly in military aircraft to evacuate people. I did ask why because from my perspective it didn’t seem as though the country was at war.
Zifnab
I think that’s the bottom line. People aren’t rallying for “Freedom” nearly so much as they are rallying for “Food”. It’s just that Mubarak likes to break your legs and throw you in jail when you protest over food, so people have to protest over the right to protest before they can consider getting serious economic reforms.
Mubarak is going to be replaced by someone better at fulfilling the economic needs of the people who wield the most power. Whether that’s a soci alist Democracy capable of spreading the wealth, an Islamic theocracy that can secure cheap breed for the pious masses, or a military dictatorship that can feed the folks with the guns remains to be seem.
People who think this is about “freedom” are god damned idiots. You can’t eat freedom.
Zifnab
I think that’s the bottom line. People aren’t rallying for “Freedom” nearly so much as they are rallying for “Food”. It’s just that Mubarak likes to break your legs and throw you in jail when you protest over food, so people have to protest over the right to protest before they can consider getting serious economic reforms.
Mubarak is going to be replaced by someone better at fulfilling the economic needs of the people who wield the most power. Whether that’s a soci alist Democracy capable of spreading the wealth, an Islamic theocracy that can secure cheap breed for the pious masses, or a military dictatorship that can feed the folks with the guns remains to be seem.
People who think this is about “freedom” are god damned idiots. You can’t eat freedom.
lamh32
@Svensker:
reports I’ve read and heard are that this is not what Obama admin expected of Muburak. They preferred that he agreed to leaves as soon as a transitional gov’t can be established, which would take longer than a few days, but not until Sept. The reports I’ve read says that they are unaware if Muburak changed or re-wrote the speech he gave in response to the US maybe not shoving, but telling him that his time has come.
There was a 1 hour break between the time that the call from time Muburak was made, and the time that Muburak gave his “Scarface” speech
New Yorker
I think the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe has a lot to do with the overoptimistic view of “people power” that we, of all political persuasions, have in this country. We saw multiple communist governments collapse in a matter of weeks to be replaced with peaceful democracies, and we think it should happen everywhere because of this. We tend to forget that Tienanmen Square and its bloody conclusion occurred that same year, we forget about the genocidal violence that exploded in Yugoslavia after communism collapsed there, etc.
I think it’s a good thing the Mubarak is toast. Do I have any idea what will follow? No, and it could be something worse. I just don’t think it’s really any of our business as to what happens in Egypt, which is why I’m happy about the measured, cautious response from Obama so far. President McCain would already have the 82nd airborne occupying half of Cairo by now….
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@JGabriel: Also, with all due respect (and I mean that, it’s not a prelude to snark!) I would suggest that we haven’t seen the end of the Iran story yet. The fact that the opposition has been forced into quiescence doesn’t mean they’ve gone away or stopped organizing. In fact, everything about Iran in 2009 spoke to the phenomenal civil society organizing that had been going on for several years in spite of restriction, most notably the One Million Signature campaign.
I think that our greatest failing, as a society, is our desire to see immediate results and get instant gratification. I would suggest that America check back with Iran in 2020.
stuckinred
@Zifnab: Yea, it can’t possibly be about more than one thing can it?
Mako
Don’t see what’s the big deal. The US pays for and trains the Egyptian military. Oil prices will go up.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@Zifnab: Huh. I suppose all those people in Tahrir Square and Alexandria and Suez and various other spots and locales who have said that they want freedom and democratic choice (in addition to food and jobs and an absence of police brutality) don’t know what they’re talking about then.
cleek
this is not my event. it is not our event. IMO, it is something we should be content to let the Egyptians figure out for themselves with no pressure or assumption of responsibility from anyone in this country. it’s typical American hubris and conceit to think the events in Tunisia and Egypt and Jordan have anything to do with us or that we should be DOING SOMETHING (!). and it’s embarrassing.
and the quicker blogs STFU about WHAT IT ALL MEANS, the happier i’ll be.
JPL
What fascinated me was listening to people on the street. Yes I have been glued to AlJazeera online but the population just wants hope for a better future.
One man mentioned that after Mubarak disbanded the police and neighbors started protecting their homes, his wife found kitchen knives, brooms and tea to bring out to those protecting the neighborhood. In my mind this will always be the Tea Revolution. The local wacko tea party members have nothing on these folks.
stuckinred
@cleek: I guess you wouldn’t consider NOT reading them would you?
gwangung
@El Cid: Fuck, yeah.
lamh32
@lamh32:
Sorry, The phone conversation was after the speech. What I wanted to say was that there was an hour passed between the time the WH heard that Muburak was going to make a statement and the time Muburak actually did. The WH did not wan to make any statements before first hearing what Muburak had to say. After hearing what Muburak had to say, Obama spoke to Muburak for 30min after his speech, and I believe will be discussing some of that conversation in his statement.
WarMunchkin
I uh, “heart” this post. Ahem.
cleek
@stuckinred:
i don’t. and i didn’t say i did.
but if i want to drop by and give my $.02 on the topic, then that’s what i’ll do.
jo6pac
open democracy means they are free to elect leaders who hate the United States
They don’t hate us because your freedom, it might have something to do with how the Amerikan govt treats other citizens of the world.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/01/former-director-of-cias-counter.html
JPL
The folks that are crediting Bush forgot about the Tunisian who set himself on fire. The only way Bush gets credit is if the man read the previous presidents material and couldn’t take it anymore.
Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
Indeed. I’m on Mousabi’s Facebook page, and I found it interesting that he announced today that he had a meeting with Karroubi.
Really, “expect the unexpected” is the order of the day. And we Americans, on all sides of the aisle, seemed steeped in the idea that Modern History doesn’t happen without us “doing something,” be it good or bad, covert and/or overt. That’s a painful way of looking at the world.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
@cleek: As much as that approach might appeal, the simple truth is that our government and our military are deeply engaged with what goes on there. We can’t stay out of it. We’re in it.
It’s possible that Americans might choose to not talk about WHAT IT ALL MEANS, but for the US government to stand back and let it unfold just doesn’t even come up on the radar.
cincyanon
I just think the story in Egypt is amazing because it looks like it is a regime change without genocide or a civil war. Of such things democratic institutions are made and real democracy needs the pillars of ideas and infrastructure to work.
Whether it is good for America is to be seen. For some reason, I see comparisons to South Africa.
stuckinred
@cleek: whoop tee fucking doo
JGabriel
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
I hope you’re right. The Iranian people deserve better than the theocracy they’ve got now.
.
matoko_chan
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther: wow, great ME scholar. Fail again.
you are delusional. the Green Wave was never promoting a jusdeoxian/secular/westernstyle (pick one) society. they are muslims.
you should read Mousavis speech O Great ME scholar.
lets go over this again, em.
democracy is not the property of the west. it belongs to all people.
Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill
@lamh32: Yeah, the al-Jazeera reporter wasn’t too keen on what she saw as the White house trying to slide into Mubarak’s Sir Robin moment before he went before the cameras in that…um…whatever the hell he was trying to say today. (The translation of Mubarak’s speech was horrifically stutter-y and wonky, and the impression I’m getting is that the actual speech was exactly like that.)
Hmmm. Sound just went on from the White House feed for Obama’s latest statement. Maybe he’ll do better at the speechifyin’. :)
pragmatism
@Mako: food prices will go up.
Mark S.
Mubarak says he will not run for another term. That’s great, Hosni, but I don’t think you’re going to last another week. Why don’t you take the billion or so you’ve undoubtedly stolen over the years and retire to Paris?
I’m curious how much the economic problems here and in Europe are causing these uprisings. Some dude at NRO floated this idea a couple days ago, but it was mostly just to bash Obama. But I think there might be some truth to it. Global recessions hit the Third World a bit later, but they of course have less cushion when they do come.
Carnacki
On July 4, 1946, Ho Chi Minh declared Vietnam’s independence citing the U.S. declaration of independence. He thought we’d understand a colony wanting to overthrow the yoke of a European power.
stuckinred
If it’s destiny you cannot “control” it, damn!
matoko_chan
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
NO. our greatest failing as a society is that we are stupid and unjust, and we think its fine to do that because we got up the ladder first.
/spit
what do you not understand about this? American exceptionalism is A LIE. you still think judeoxian democracy is the only kind of democracy there is.
Big White Christian Bwana says, “we are going to rape you, kill you, and steal your stuff, but its ALL GOOD because we are civilizing you and saving your souls for Big White Plastic Jesus.”
Redshift
@lamh32: Well, yeah, and that’s the Big Stupid there. After years of the Bush style of talking loudly in public about what he expected everyone to do and not negotiating behind the scenes at all, these idiot pundits seem to assume that if the president isn’t personally doing stuff where they can see it, that must mean that nothing is being done.
Idiot pundits. (But I guess that’s redundant.)
stuckinred
@Carnacki: He thought it when he went to the League of Nations after WWI too. wrong again
matoko_chan
@JGabriel: we deserve better than the theocracy we have now too, dumbass.
stuckinred
@matoko_chan: what do you deserve Cato?
General Stuck
I just don’t listen or watch those gasbags and get about all my news from AL Jazeera streaming and the like. You know, from the people who are experiencing it. While I am hopeful for Egypt, there is a ton of uncertainty about this sort of thing sweeping the Pan Arab world. But it doesn’t matter one whit what I think, it will happen because it has to happen, the same way it happened in this country. You can’t keep captives to global interests of superpowers and their wealthy despot clients for ever, even if there are short term rewards for stability. I don’t really care how other countries govern themselves, it is their business and if they choose democracy or a ouji board, it makes no never mind to me. It is their oil, also too, so we better figure out how to make our cars go with some other thing.
Midnight Marauder
@matoko_chan:
Are you seriously spitting on the internet?
What a clown.
Violet
What about the issue that Mubarak is from the military so the military, who apparently have a reasonably good relationship with the general Egyptian populace, wants him to leave in such a way that he saves face? I’ve heard that said on news/cable shows. Is there any truth to any of it?
matoko_chan
@cleek: dude…..we CAUSED these events. by propping secular dictators that repressed Islam and played nice with Israel.
Mubarak has been killing and torturing students and journalists and political enemies and bloggers for decades.
and the US gave him $ to stay in power and do it.
We should accept responsibilty at a bare minimum.
lamh32
@Redshift:
Just heard Obama’s statement. And as I thought, no showboating.
matoko_chan
@General Stuck:
you go boi!
look for rising gas prices …..and……falling real estate prices in Tel Aviv.
:)
IM
But waht is Obamas message? That Mubarak has to go now?
JWL
Age has has a lot to do with political perspective, irrespective of personal belief. I didn’t know fuck all about Iran in ’79, but had drawn a more-or-less accurate bead on the Shah’s regime and so cheered his exit. Oh well. Today I don’t know fuck all about Egypt or its leadership, other than we pay them billions not to attack Israel (money well spent, I’ve assumed until now). And that the people demand change? It’s there neck of the woods, not mine. Whatever they decide- whatever the outcome- who am I to tell them different? Or the USA, for that matter.
Calouste
@Mark S.:
Not sure whether France is willing to put up with Mubarak. It might actually be the main problem at the moment, where is he going to go. The Saudis took Ben Ali, but with 1 million Egyptians living in the country, they are probably not as willing to take Mubarak.
matoko_chan
@IM: wsj link.
matoko_chan
@JWL:
GTFO Big White Christian Bwana?
i support that……but after 30 years its kinda too late.
Violet
@Calouste:
Mubarak said in his speech he wasn’t going to leave Egypt. He’s lived there his whole life and wants to die there.
Isn’t he ill with something? Not that long to live?
matoko_chan
@stuckinred:
Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill
@IM: Obama’s message, in a nutshell:
1) Damn it feels good to see people up on it.
2) Mubarak’s goin’ out like a sucka.
David Brooks (not that one)
We’re also witnessing the setup of the teleological approach to history, where all the current events will soon be seen as inevitable preludes to the inevitable future. And, when that future arrives (whatever it is) everyone will revise their past predictions ever so slightly to fit in with the “past predetermines the future” narrative.
In other words, history is written by the winners.
When Mubarak leaves, and I believe he will, it will be seen as part of the inevitable sweep of history – by the winners. Never mind that there are undoubtedly many genuine Mubarak-supporters in the country right now, whose voices are marginalized: the phrase “the people” airbrushes them out. Never mind that it could well have gone the other way. Just as the American Revolution should be called the First Civil War, since there were more colonial loyalists fighting for the status quo then rebels for independence. Their voices have been wiped from history too.
GregB
I can’t wait until Mark Levin and Pam Gellar start in on the fact that President Obama is negotiating with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Peak wingnut may be nigh.
cleek
@stuckinred:
look, i don’t know what your problem is, or why i get all the attitude from you. but, if there’s some reason you insist on being an asshole towards me, now’s your chance to tell me what it is. so, let’s have it. i’m all ears.
General Stuck
@matoko_chan:
Well, whoever ends up with their hands on the oil spigets in the ME, will be faced with the reality that it is worthless to them unless they sell it to the world at an affordable price. Just smelly black stuff.
Mako
@pragmatism:
Nah, not really for me. Just gasoline.
matoko_chan
@JGabriel:
it will be hella better for egyptions. dumbass.
Mubarak and his police have been imprisoning, killing, torturing, beating and FUCKING SODOMIZING students, bloggers, journalists, professors and political enemies for decades, while helping blockade the border so Israel and her bitch America could try to starve the gazans into submission or extinction. while America looked the other way and kept the dollahs flowing.
its not going to be better for us murricans, or for the israelis.
gas prices will go up.
and realestate prices in Tel Aviv will fall.
:)
policomic
@Svensker: It’s not as if Mubarek is just going to do whatever Obama tells him to do. I think the most logical assumption is that pressure from Obama got Mubarek to move as far as he was willing to move in a conciliatory direction.
Malron
Stop making sense, John. Just stop it.
/snark
Well said, sir. Exactly what I’ve been feeling from day one.
Mako
@matoko_chan:
Oh clam down. Ever played RISK? It’s just like that. We won.
The Egyptians will get some kind of government, the Egyptian military will survive, oil will continue to flow at slightly higher prices.
Bob Loblaw
This is basically the most ridiculous thing ever written.
And this is what passes for “sensible conservatism?” Oh no, we can’t really know anything, let’s just sit and be paralyzed with fear all the time, poor us! The fact that you’re pimping Larison as anything other than a complete joke on the same level as the fucking neocons is instructive.
There is absolutely a right side of history to be on today. And it’s with the people on the streets who don’t have a “secret police.” No matter what comes next.
matoko_chan
@GregB: yeah, that will be fuckin’ epic.
i think her head will explode.
/making popcorn
matoko_chan
@Mako:
…..and the Blockade will fall.
Hamas calls itself “the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine”. Neither Hamas or the Brothers consider the blockade to be legitimate…….or Israel for that matter.
This is good news for the Two-State solution methinks.
;)
Calouste
@Violet:
The choice of where he is going to die might no longer be up to him. I haven’t heard anything that he is ill, but he is 82, so his life expectancy is somewhat limited. Mubarak himself might accept internal exile, but I don’t see the opposition being happy with that.
Bob
Anyone that thinks Arab/Islamic nations somehow equate to Enlightenment influenced liberal democracies need to return to kindergarten and try again.
Plus, we, good ‘ol USA, have our share of theocratic nut-jobs willing to make the case for an Xian dictatorship.
Remember this oozing cancer from a few days ago?
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xgmt9s_we-need-a-christian-dictator_news#from=embed
stuckinred
@cleek: I don’t know who the fuck you are. People on a blog are trying to make sense of what is going on and you are “embarrassed” and “will be happy” when they stop. Just like you, I’ll say whatever I want. Better?
Texas Dem
“No matter what comes next?” I hope you’re joking. A year or two from now, when the Muslim Brotherhood is running Egypt and we’re paying five bucks for a gallon of gas, this “revolution” isn’t going to look quite so rosy. And that doesn’t even include what Israel might do when a new Egyptian government decides to halt the blockade of Gaza or abandon the Camp David peace agreement. Strap yourselves in, this is about to get very interesting.
Malron
@Bob Loblaw:
Because we should be ashamed of ourselves for fighting past the convenience of being thousands of miles away from harm to care enough to express real concern for what the human cost will be in exchange for all this freedom you speak of.
4jkb4ia
@Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther:
Hear, hear!
Did not read any wingnut blogs other than Jennifer Rubin on this. But with all of the frustration over the American version of democracy it must be irresistible for liberal bloggers to say, “this is what democracy looks like!”– standing in the streets to represent and organize the people themselves. John is right that forming a government is a whole different thing. I hope that he saw Nick Kristof today saying that Tiananmen Square was exactly as giddy as this and it could still all end badly.
BTW, John is on a roll today.
matoko_chan
@Bob: what do you think about Iraq?
Paula
Hooray for the armchair revolutionaries!
On a serious note, I’m glad to know that the US govt accepts the Muslim Brotherhood as a legitimate political player in private. Out in public, OTOH …
matoko_chan
@4jkb4ia: the army has already refused.
no tiananmen for you.
sides, Obama and Hillary told the generals the US cant support that, even if Mubarak orders it.
@Texas Dem: like i said, when the blockade falls (and it will) then O can force the Two-state solution that Bibbi and the settlers have been duckin’.
Bad news for Palin and the pre-trib leftbehinders tho.
No Rapture for you, Sarah.
matoko_chan
@Paula: public will come. there will be justice.
The Republic of Stupidity
@Redshift:
Unfortunately, they won’t be learning any of that geography from Fox News…
Malron
@Paula: I’m surprised “101st chairborne” isn’t one of the tags.
Mako
@Bob Loblaw:
I paid my US taxes to support Egypt. I expect a fair return. Since we own the Egyptian military, I expect the Egyptian people will be okay and oil will continue to flow at slightly higher prices. Sometimes you just have to be Proud To Be An American.
cleek
@stuckinred:
i’m embarrassed for our country’s fucked up paternalistic attitude towards other countries. and i would like blogs to chill out about this stuff. two different things, and my comment is pretty clear about that.
i still don’t know what i did to earn the attitude. but, if you don’t want to tell me, i’ll stop wondering.
here, use this. add my handle to the list at the top. it will probably make your life better.
Phoebe
It’s happened. You people [posters and commenters both] have incorporated “also, too” into your vocabularies, legitimately. This always happens when you start out making fun of something. It’s happened to me countless times, and I have to restrain myself from saying “awesome!” “hawt” and “dude” if I’m around people I don’t know so well. You can say you’re still kidding, but I won’t believe it.
matoko_chan
@Mako: did you pay to starve the gazans too?
because that is what the Blockade does.
our taxpayer dollahs in action.
Mako
@matoko_chan:
So? How does that affect me? I know a couple of Jewish guys. One works in advertising. The other is a comedian. I might know a Jewish woman too, now that i thinkonit…
Woodrow "asim" Jarvis Hill
@Mako:
We send more than a couple of billion to Israeli, and we sure as hell don’t own them.
stuckinred
@cleek: You wish
matoko_chan
@Mako: /shrug. guess it doesnt.
like stunted gazan kids with rickets don’t affect you now.
But in 20 years, when one out of four humans on the planet is a muslim, it might.
Mako
@matoko_chan:
Whatever. I pay people to understand that stuff. All that really matters to me is the gasoline price. Sure, some people are suffering somewhere, i got empathy and all, but when it comes down to it, it’s really all about me.
Paris
@matoko_chan: A speech made by a politician who knows his audience. Your point?
goatchowder
I am giddy, and I’m not the least bit embarassed about it. I think it’s fantastic to watch a country throw off a dictator. Maybe, some years from now, we in America will throw off our corporate overlords and allow our democracy to breathe free again (by eliminating corporate personhood, perhaps, and funding all elections publicly).
I’m also relieved to watch this regime fall, since my fucking tax dollars have been paying for them to torture and suppress their people. So I’m glad they’re finally on their way out.
And, it is NOT a given that a new regime will be dictatorial, nor that it will hate the USA. That depends on whether the people maintain control of their revolutino, and whether outsiders like us can behave honorably and intelligently. So far Clinton and Obama are playing this like absolute pro’s. I’m very proud of them. More of this, please, all over the world. The time is now.
Mako
@matoko_chan
One in four is meh odds. Still unsure what you are all excited about. People are miserable all over the world. What do you expect me to do about it?
matoko_chan
@Mako: acknowlege your part in it if its not too much to ask. but dont mind me. keep on chewing that cud.
its not your problem ……….yet.
matoko_chan
@Paris: an ISLAMIC speech made by an ISLAMIC politician, complete with quranic quotes.
my point to em is, the Green Wave was not a revolution against Islam.
Iran is different from Egypt. half the country supports Nejad and Khamenei– the conservative half. the ostentatiously pious, rural, uneducated and mostly older half….the CONSERVATIVE half..like redstate America.
But both halves are muslim.
Emily falls into the american trap of thinking muslims want to throw off some america-demonized cartoon version of al-Islam.
they dont.
and they wont.
Khamenei may be overthrown someday– hes dying and trying to secure his legacy for his son moqtada….but not for judeoxian/western style democracy.
it will be islamic democracy, like Iraq.
Scott P.
No, we recognize that. In fact, it’s the whole point of democracy — people exercise their right to consent, or not, to their government. I’m not a fair-weather democracy supporter, like some out there.
The Egyptians have the right to choose how they are governed. Whether or not we agree with their choice. Period.
Scott P.
There’s no historical support for this. From Middlekauff, “The Glorious Cause”:
“About 500,000 Americans remained loyal to Britain between 1775 and 1783…Altogether the “loyalists” comprised about 16 percent of the population or a little more than 19 percent of all white Americans…In no colony did loyalists outnumber revolutionaries.”
Mako
@matoko_chan:
Already did. I’m okay with it. Kept the peace, kept my gasoline prices cheap. Egyptians mighta suffered, but what the hell, you think they’d be squirming all guilty if theyda won?
Matt McIrvin
I think a fair number of the people I’m seeing expressing hope about this are doing so in full recognition that the resulting government could hate the United States.
And rightly so. Really, if (if) Egyptians get a government that’s better for them, are Americans of good will supposed to be opposed to this just because it’s a problem for US foreign policy? What has US foreign policy done for them lately? It’s not about us.
Paris
@matoko_chan: Yeah, I don’t disagree with that.
Bird of paradise fly in white sky, Blues for Allah In ‘sh’Allah,
Let’s see with our heart, These things our eyes have seen,
And know the truth must still lie somewhere in between.
— DFH (aka Grateful Dead)
sherparick
There has been a latent fear/worry for 20 years that something like this would happen in Egypt, but lets not kid anyone, what happen here and in Tunisia the last six weeks caught policy makers across the world flat footed. Second, this is mostly an Egyptian story, and it will be written by the Egyptians, a 6,000 year old nation-state, so we youngsters over here in America should have a little humility. Third, we have a MSM media/Village culture that has just dumbed itself down to the point rocks have more common sense. It all celebrity and magical thinking that if Obama says the right words it will all come out all right, and if it doesn’t, well it is all his fault. Meanwhile, Reuters has story from Israel who apparently are in a complete panic over what may well turn in a national security catastrophe for them and of course, it is all Obama’s fault (apparently because he is not urging Mubarak to shoot down the folks in the street by the thousands.) Really, guys, you have done your best to make all your neighbors hate your guts the last 10 years, so I guess you will have live with it. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-israel-usa-idUSTRE70U53720110131
Mark S.
@sherparick:
I read that Reuters article last night and couldn’t believe that bullshit. What are we supposed to do, invade Egypt and help Mubarak crack down on his people? That worked so well for us in Iran.
Pococurante
Geez – you all are looking to Larison again.
He *likes* authoritarian regimes. It starts with his own fundamentalist interpretation of Greek Orthodox Catholicism. He genuinely believes bishops first and the intelligentsia second should call the shots. And he’s pretty sure that despite a lack of robes he is a bishop AND an intellectual.
Have you frontpagers just not read him for more than a few months?
Simply because he has a vocabulary doesn’t really differentiate him from the Tea Party. Same wingnut, different obeisance.
/sigh
cleek
@stuckinred:
well, i think you overestimate how much i care. but, thanks for making it perfectly clear that you’re just a troll. i know how to deal with trolls… welcome to the pie factory.
Fax Paladin
You can’t eat freedom, no. But when you can’t eat, changing things so that you can eat… requires freedom.
Unless, of course, the policy changes produced as a result of free elections affect those conditions. Is Larison’s point that they don’t, and therefore democracy has no fucking point whatever?
DPirate
Do you really mean this? I find it important, but in a way much different than you seem to.
No one gets out alive, and if someone chooses to risk his life in such an endeavor, then more power to him. I think it very silly and counterproductive, not to mention insulting, for some observer to say “No, stop, it’s dangerous to stand up to injustice”. If we cannot find the humanity and character to show support, then we can cowardly look away. Just don’t tell people with the sand to stand up for themselves to shut up and get back in line. The paradigm ensconsed at the heart of this sentence is just plain safety over freedom.
Do you consider yourself to be authoritarian?
Anne Laurie
@lamh32:
Mubarak’s eighty-two years old, maybe a “dignified withdrawal” might actually sound appealing after the week he’s had. There was a Kennedy School program dedicated to offering about-to-be-ex-dictators “serious, scholarly posts” — guaranteed stipends and a promise they wouldn’t be prosecuted — which actually attracted some interest from the target audience. A sinecure of some sort in Monte Carlo or a similar nest of rich parasites with no political affiliation beyond C.R.E.A.M. might actually seem more attractive to the old tyrant than hoping that when push comes to shove the army will shoot towards the mob and not towards the castle.
Mnemosyne
@DPirate:
How, exactly, was Andrew Sullivan risking his life when he announced we should all turn our blogs green to support the protesters in Iran?
Changing the background color of your blog when you’re safely in the US is absolutely nothing like being in Iran and participating in the demonstrations, and pretending that you’re putting your life at just as much risk as the Iranians actually being beaten by police is a dick move. It’s “me too!” ism at its worst.
matoko_chan
@Mnemosyne: you misunderstand Sully. hes just another conservative shill. he actually thought Mousavi and the students were going to bleed and die for jeebus democracy.
that is why he breathlessly changed his blog to green.
Green is the color of Islam.
its the color of Hizbollah and Hamas.
the dumbshit didnt even get that.
the assclown goes about in pantswetting fear of “ISLAMISTS”.
like most of America.
boogedey-boogedey
Stillwater
@Brian S (formerly Incertus): but part of the problem is that we don’t have any real sense of just how bloody our own revolution was, and how divided the colonists were over the issue.
And that we couldn’t close the deal without the French.
Wile E. Quixote
@sherparick:
I read that article, boy, what a tasty piece of schadenfreude. The Likudniks are just shitting themselves with indignation, listening to those punks squeal is the best part of this show.
Suffern ACE
@Stillwater: Or how much worse that whole deal with the French could have turned out. But that was 200 years ago and I don’t think the situations are the same.
This could be Poland in 1979…or Iran in 1979…or Zaire in 1990…or Indonesia in 1998…or just keep throwing up examples. Sometimes this popular protest stuff works, and sometimes one junta replaces another one like in Myanmar or Nigeria for many years. I remember when Suharto stepped down, George Will writing that it was the end for that country’s economic prospects, and he is yammering about this now. I’m sure they would have written that Beruit’s relative prosperity and cosmopolitan elite would make its civil war a short affair, had historical contingencies and human agency not gotten in the way.
Larison is actually being an ass. Of course we can’t predict the future. We don’t have a clue what the relevant contingencies will be since we are only given “The People” “Islamicists” and “Authoritarianism” to deal with, but don’t have a clue how things work in Egypt. Not our fault really. When we just assume that all world leaders outside of Europe and the Axis of Evil serve because the US pays them money and provides military supplies, predicting outcomes is a snap.
gelfling545
@Ash Can: I strongly agree and am pleased by the restraint Obama & Clinton are showing.I wonder if we will ever come to a time when most people in the US realize that people in other countries must choose the government that they believe is best for them, not for us. Certainly a government could be put into place that is not favorable to US interests but we will have to live with it just as the rest of the world had to live with and is still suffering the consequences of Bush II.
And we, of all people, should know that democratic self-government is not given by outside sources. It is claimed by the citizens.
Chris
I somehow missed this entire discussion, and really regret it. Basically, this:
@Tom Hilton:
Yeah, that’s what I’ve seen on the right too; equal parts “WOW look it’s freedom, credit Bush!” and “OH NOES it’s Muslims, blame Obama!”
They still haven’t settled on one narrative over the other, reason being that they have no idea how this is going to turn out and therefore don’t know which narrative to run with. So they’re keeping them both alive in order to be able to say “I told you so.”
matoko_chan
@gelfling545: democracy cannot be imposed by force. but it is highly contagious.
America has traditionally tried to impose democracy through force of arms (missionaries with guns in Iraq and A-stan) or by propping a secular strong man like mubarak and the shah.
cannot be done.
America tried both strats in Iraq– propping Saddam, and then sending in the missionaries with guns.
double fail.
Slow learners, aint we?
aap
But for the “American Empire” and support for Israel, this should be none of our business. Can we just stop trying to police the world and operating as if everything is in our interest?