As I’ve said for a while, I think Republicans are going to nominate some guy who the Village thinks of as serious. It could be an affable himbo (Thune), it could be a GOP daddy (Barbour, Daniels, Gingrich), or it could be some combination of the two (Romney, Pawlenty). Whoever it is, we’ll hear a lot about Burkean reserve and Hamiltonian whatever-it-is-that-David-Brooks-thinks-Alexander-Hamilton-had, and so on. Ben Smith (warning Politico link) claims that the field could just be Romney, Pawlenty, and three weirdos with no chance.
Furthermore, Joe Klein claims “that prominent Republicans have approached Rupert Murdoch and Roger Ailes about the potential embarrassment that the paranoid-messianic rodeo clown may bring upon their brand”, i.e. that Glenn Beck will be fired before the 2012 campaign really gets going.
Who knows if this is true, but I expect to hear a lot about a “more serious GOP” between now and 2012. Maybe this won’t require a new cast of characters, though, since the media can make anyone sound serious (via Steve M):
It’s possible that Ms. Palin could use the opportunity to deliver a broadly conceived foreign policy speech that uses the turmoil in Egypt to advance an understanding of her national security beliefs that goes beyond her use of Twitter messages and Facebook posts.
But we’re not going to get a freak like Palin or Bolton, I’m afraid. Cain and Santorum may provide some comic relief, but what they have to offer us, that’s as good as it’s gonna get.
Nicole
Major points for the XTC reference.
BGinCHI
That Shear piece is paid concern trolling.
Might she do this? Could it be…?
No, absolutely no, analysis of her as having ever had thoughts, about knowing things about the world, about her experience.
I guess that’s because she doesn’t have any.
rikyrah
the truth is, as the seriousness of this issue became clear and the implications for the entire Middle East were staring us in the face, nobody went asking that stupid woman anything. this is a serious matter, and only serious thinking people need to comment. CBN? THAT is where she thought she could make a comment on this? who the hell listens to CBN?
SHE’S desperate to stay relevant, as it becomes glaringly obvious, to all but her most dedicated sycophants, that the world is a serious place. and if you want to get entertained, call up Ticketmaster. what were the only stories about her this week? how her daughter had been rebuffed by Washington University, and the coldness with which they dismissed her as nothing but and uneducated teen mother who had nothing to offer them- as college students, and how her grifting ass wanted to trademark ‘ Brand Palin’, yet she was too stupid to even get THAT right.
Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
I’m hoping for Bachmann, myself. It would be sublime to watch her spew forth in a national campaign for a year, since it would leave the press little choice but to acknowledge just how nuts the Republicans really are, but I don’t think it can happen. Then again, who knows? Short of Bachmann, I’m kind of rooting for Gingrich. I know lots of press people think he’s “serious” and “smart” and a “thinker”, but in truth, he’s a loathesome turd, and I don’t think David Brooks and all the other lordly pundits can paper that over. People will see him for all his swinishness.
David
If Palin wants the nomination it’s hers.
The Commenter on BJ formerly known as arguingwithsignposts
No freaking way Gingrich wins any nomination. He’s a twice-divorced shill. He just hints at running to keep it raining money.
JGabriel
DougJ®:
I’m afraid that we will. Well, Palin anyway. No one will accept Bolton’s mustache as his running mate.
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jwb
It will be interesting to see whether the Village and other serious(R) Republicans can effectively dismount the crazy. The comments you quote here make it seem like the Village and Very Serious People(R) think that it’s simply a question of cutting off major media access. Even if they can get Murdoch on board, I don’t see it working over the time span they now have. I think the only way they can do it is with very serious buyouts of all the principal clowns—and they still have the basic problem of the House that crazy built.
MikeJ
Hucklebuckle. I don’t think he’ll win it, but he does know how to sound less crazy than he actually is.
DougJ®
@JGabriel:
You think Palin is the VP nominee again?
dmsilev
Strictly speaking, this is correct. It is *possible* that Sarah Palin would have given a speech demonstrating her grasp of a nuanced foreign policy. It is not, however, likely.
(I’m in training for the Understatement of the Year contest. Can you tell?)
dms
gbear
Great song reference, but you also could have gone with the last song on Black Sea, ‘Travels In Nihilon’ which has the added bonus of someone pissing into a urinal for the last minute of the song.
MattF
@MikeJ
I kinda agree about Huck, he’s radical and smart. I don’t agree, btw, that either Barbour or Gingrich are mainstream. And with the himbos, there’s that media slurping noise in the background; it’s quite disgusting.
Brachiator
Palin’s main role is to make people like Romney look more like reasonable alternatives. It’s too bad that the country has such a short attention span, and has forgot about how dismally Romney performed in the GOP primary and debates.
And people underestimate Palin. Whoever the GOP selects as their candidate must be acceptable to Palin and to the Tea Party. And because Palin is both stupid and willful, there is no guarantee that she will easily be placated. Much the same can also be said about Rupert Murdoch.
JGabriel
@The Commenter on BJ formerly known as arguingwithsignposts:
AWSP, meet Ronald Reagan, divorcee and shill.
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Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
As has been noted somewhere, 30 years ago had an uncurious, uninformed, dim witted nitwit like Palin(R) insisted on spewing word salad on a weekly basis, some very serious politicians would have quietly told her to STFU. Can you imagine the hilarity that would ensue if someone tried that with Granny Grifter(R) ?
JGabriel
@DougJ®:
I fear Palin could win the Pres. nom., though I think it’s unlikely. I don’t think she would take the VP slot again, though Bachmann is clearly gunning for it.
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Joey Maloney
@Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): I’m hoping for Bachmann, myself. It would be sublime to watch her spew forth in a national campaign for a year, since it would leave the press little choice but to acknowledge just how nuts the Republicans really are
Oh, I think you overestimate our glorious Fourth Estate. Sure, anything Bachmann says on-camera will be dissected and ridiculed in the blogosphere, but how often do newsninnies challenge even the most blatant untruths or nonsequiturs? It’s so rare that when it happens it’s the talk of the net for days. Bachmann/Palin/Santorum/Bolton/whoever will be given free rein to say the most ridiculous nonsense, and afterwards a panel made up of Peggy Noonan, William Kristol, and even the liberal Mickey Kaus will stroke their chins thoughtfully and wonder aloud if this is the real gamechanger.
The Commenter on BJ formerly known as arguingwithsignposts
@JGabriel:
Meh, the Reagan comparison doesn’t hold. Gingrich is like Pat Buchanan with white hair.
enplaned
Could be. But to win the nomination, even a “respectable” type is going to have to say some pretty disreputable things along the way.
Which if Obama has any sense, he’ll record and play back, ad nauseam, during the general election.
So it will be hard for Obama to lose, unless he has some irrational fetish about embarrassing his opponents.
Oh sh*t.
rikyrah
Reagan might have dogged Jane Wyman, but we don’t know – to this day. Newt – we know that he had divorce papers delivered to the hospital bed of his CANCER-RIDDLED WIFE.. I don’t give a shyt how many interviews he does with the religious right…. that image won’t and can never be erased.
also, while he was trying to impeach Clinton, his ass was having an affair. …another nugget that will never be erased.
JGabriel
@Nicole:
Yeah, that was a pretty good song.
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Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
@DougJ®: Her ego would never permit a VP slot. She is that delusional.
MikeJ
@enplaned:
Again, this favors Huck. The crazy people already know he’s crazy. He has his crazy bona fides. He’s one of the few who can pretend to be sane. Picking up what sane Republicans remained is how McCain got the nom.
Brachiator
@rikyrah:
Nobody cares about this. Nobody.
And the GOP is deft at insisting that godless liberals are all degenerates while every sin of every Republican has been washed away by the tears of the baby Jebus.
Bex
The nominee will be Jeb Bush because we have very short memories in this country. It’s his turn, since he should have gotten the nomination ten years ago. He and his wife (who was born in Mexico) are Catholics and, being the former governor of Florida, he’s connected to the Cuban community. He is also not part of the current freak show.
danimal
@Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy (formerly Mumphrey, et al.): I kinda think it will come down to an establishment type (my money’s on Romney) and a flamethrower (Bachmann is a newer, fresher Palin(R). The flamethrower will lose, but hang on and really hurt the eventual nominee. If God loves us, the flamethrower will join a nuisance third party from the right.
JGabriel
@The Commenter on BJ formerly known as arguingwithsignposts:
The Reagan comparison doesn’t hold for Reagan either. The guy got elected anyway. People forget that Reagan was just as much a joke in the late 1970’s as most potential GOP nominees, including Gingrich and Palin, are today.
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cursorial
What doesn’t get asked enough is what are Rupert Murdoch’s incentives here? Are Fox News ratings better covering the fairly boring squabbles of governing or the howling outrage of a disgruntled minority and their unending parade of freakshow candidates?
Murdoch may be ideologically Republican, but he’s in the entertainment business, and when it comes to maximizing profits I think the present situation suits him just fine.
The Pale Scot
come on, can’t we have a borbaour/Palin Bible Spice/Boss Hog ticket?
PleazOHpleazzzz!!!!!!!
I happily give up a limb fer that. (they’re getting old and don’t work well anyway)
Allen
I pray it’s someone like Barbour or Daniels, i.e., someone who actually sucks the charisma out of the room, the anti-charisma if you will.
Davis X. Machina
@David:
God doesn’t love us that much.
Allen
cursorial, you are absolutely right about Murdoch’s motivations. He has no compunction against his entertainment network (Fox) tweaking the right, or even Faux News itself. E.g., witness The Simpsons or Family Guy.
fasteddie9318
It’s possible that I could start eating coal and crapping out diamonds also too, but I don’t see it happening. If I were a betting man, I’d go with crapping diamonds ahead of Palin advancing the notion that she has a fucking clue about anything.
Stillwater
With a little searching, I found this first un-edited draft:
Davis X. Machina
@JGabriel: Two-term governor of country’s largest state, versus half-term governor of one of the smallest (population)?
Apples to teeny-tiny oranges. Reagan wasn’t a lightweight, and no one in the politics business, as opposed to the entertainment-commentary axis, ever acted as if he was.
Loneoak
But who really believes that Palin wants the nomination? It is much harder to grift from the White House, and campaigning is a lot of work. Every available piece of evidence points to her being profoundly lazy and obscenely greedy. I think the Republican primary voters could potentially vote for her, but she will not run. No way.
Svensker
@rikyrah:
I think more to the point, Gingrich has no charm. Ronnie did.
JGabriel
@MikeJ:
Yep. Despite or maybe because of that Baptist preacher training, Huckabee knows how to act as reasonable as an Episcopalian minister at a Princeton afternoon tea — i.e., Huck know how to do staid, when he wants.
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trollhattan
re. Palin(R) I predict her griftress roots will keep her off the campaign trail and continuing to harvest that sweet, sweet Wingnut Welfare(tm). As much as she loves attention and adulation (even if she can’t spell the second) she loves her some bank, more, and doesn’t need any pesky campaign finance restrictions.
“I’m keeping the clothes this time, damnit!”
I could envision a well-orchestrated Beck-dumping by Fox & the Republican machinery.
1. Beck says something particularly nasty and stupid about [fill in blank].
2. Target of his idiocy speaks up.
3. Fox pearl-clutches about the unfair besmirchment of their reputation from the purported victim, but with Great Reluctance and Regret cancels Beck’s show on account of pressure from unnamed advertisers, who are afeared of unfair attacks from teh Left (who hate Fox’s freedoms).
4. The official mouthpiece of the Republican Party is rid of their greatest, most consistent source of embarrassment (helloooo, Doocy) and now able to go hunt independents and moderates.
5. Beck goes to work for…?
AAA Bonds
Joe Klein: usually wrong.
dmsilev
@Loneoak: Disagree. She lives for attention, and as soon as the GOP race really gets going, the only people who will be getting much attention will be the candidates. I predict that she’ll do a long drawn-out “will she or won’t she run” thing, decide in the summer or fall that she will run. Otherwise, there’ll be the better part of a year in which nobody cares about Palin, and that will be doubleplusungood.
dms
JGabriel
@Davis X. Machina:
Nixon called, and insists he was in the politics business:
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Jim, Foolish Literalist
I still can’t decide if Palin is nutty enough to think she can win, or just knows–as far as she can know anything– that the more the media is talking about her, the more money there is to be made. Gingrich is thoroughly unlikeable and couldn’t sustain a month of serious scrutiny/exposure. Point a camera at him and sooner rather than later he’ll say something incredibly stupid and offensive even to low info voters. I wouldn’t dismiss Bolton completely. Not that he could get double digits in a primary, but I could see him and Palin being the “two Pats” of 2012.
Brachiator
@cursorial:
Murdoch is in the Murdoch business. He has been ruthless in replacing editors of the various media companies he has purchased. His new minions always reflect his values.
Murdoch clearly believes that he can shape public opinion. He doesn’t care whether you are entertained.
Loneoak
@dmsilev:
Disagree entirely. The field will be slobbering over who she endorses. She can double her time on Fox as an ‘analyst’ in that situation. Sure, she will draw out the phase of pretending to think about running, but her inherent griftittude will keep her out of the race. Running for President is just about the hardest job in the world, right being actually being President. She is as lazy as she is dumb, but she’s not so dumb as to pursue a life of non-laziness.
Loneoak
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
But there’s no money to be made on a campaign trail …
aimai
@MikeJ:
Didn’t McCain get the nomination by simply being the last man standing–not by picking anyone up but by everyone else’s vote sort of canceling each other out?
I agree with JWB way upthread, however, on the larger point. I don’t think the respectable Republicans have time to corral the loons before the next election. They will either royally piss off the base who will sit at home in a rage or they will be unable to shut down the base and turn off the independents.
aimai
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Brachiator: I’ve read stories (gossip, really) that Murdoch is torn between his family and friends, who think Beck (and I think Hannity) is an embarrassment, and Roger Ailes. And I have some vague recollection of stories (by which I mean again, media gossip) that even Ailes, who people say taught Dick Cheney how to rip the head off a newborn kitten so that you don’t spill a drop, thinks Beck is a clown.
Sinnach
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Palin throw her hat in the primary. I would be shocked if she seriously tried to win it. Oh, she’ll declare her candidacy and run the gamut of Fox hosts and shows all while blasting Democrats and Obama. She’ll pull her punches against serious Republican candidates and when it finally comes out that she is only in 2nd or 3rd she will drop out and throw her support behind whoever hands her the largest paycheck.
She’s trying not to remain directly in the spotlight; she wants to flutter in and out like some celebrity butterfly. If she stays in the light everyone tends to notice she’s a vapid know-nothing; if she doesn’t catch at least a little attention her meal tickets tend to dry up.
Davis X. Machina
Reagan always was despised by Nixon because he ran the same race as Nixon, and did it without breaking one-tenth of Nixon’s sweat, or drawing one-tenth of the hatred. No House or Senate races to fight and win, No eight years as Ike’s leg-breaker. No grovelling to be kept on the ticket as VP. No nightmare humiliation against Edmund Brown.
Reagan’s political career was an open reproach to the way Nixon lived half or more of his life.
And shallow isn’t necessarily a problem in politics. Deep loses sometimes. And remember what Keynes said about FDR….
Kirbster
@Bex: Jeb Bush as the nominee makes perfect sense to me, but I think he’ll wait for 2016.
No family in America is more connected to the centers of power than the Bushes and they’re not finished with us yet. In Godfather terms, we’ve already had “Don Vito” (Poppy), and “Sonny” (W), so “Michael” (Jeb) is next in line. Neil Bush, however, only gets to play the thankless role of fuck-up brother “Fredo.”
Jager
@rikyrah:
The word from old Hollywood types is Nancy had remarkable oral skills.
(And of course Jane Wyman was serious about her work and was a much better actor than St Ronnie)
piratedan
well I do wish Sarah would practice what she preaches when it comes to abstinence, I just wish she would apply it to speaking in public instead of sex.
If I was a betting man, which face do you want representing your brand?
I am guessing it might be Thune, he has the corporate hair, he hasn’t said too much in the public, which gives the Dems nothing to latch onto (other than the hilarity that the 1840’s Republican platform is fast evolving into reality). He could simply smile into the camera and let all the corporate hatchet jobs perform the smear campaign and he simply rides above that tide of dreck while the voting public sees a handsome smiling white face looking at them. I find that scenario to be incredibly plausible. It’s all about getting elected, then whoever wins does what Roger and Rupert tell them to anyways.
dr. bloor
We can only hope. I look forward to paying back some of the Clinton/Obama ratfucking that dominated the 2008 primaries by helping to splinter the lunatic fringers from the corporatists who can actually look like they’re not psychotic at times.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kirbster: You forgot Barbara “Luca Brazzi” Pierce Bush.
BGinCHI
David Gregory: “Will you run for President?”
David Gregory’s Mailman: “I’m just trying to deliver the mail here, sir.”
Gregory: “I ask you again, will you run for President?”
Loneoak
@dr. bloor:
I very much want Beck off the air, because I think he does real harm, but I wish it was in a way that didn’t consolidate Republican corporatist power.
Davis X. Machina
I still think it’s going to be someone we haven’t even heard, or heard much, about yet. Their vintage-1991 Bill Clinton.
dmsilev
@Loneoak: Playing “reluctant kingmaker” will work for a while, but once a fair-sized slice of actual voters go to the polls, it becomes less and less relevant. After, say, Super Tuesday, how many people will really care if Palin endorses Candidate X. And once the nomination is decided, what does she have? A speaking slot at the convention?
I just can’t see how her ego would let her not run.
dms
Cranky Observer
I have to question whether prominent Republicans, including the behind-the-scenes big money backers, are in control of their party or going to be in control of who is nominated in 2012. Maybe they are (Palin peaking and destroying herself too early helps them here). Maybe they aren’t – and I don’t think it can be assumed that they are. There are truly a lot of angry disaffected conservatives out there, particularly in the early primary states, and the Tea Party + organizing via Internet has given them the idea that they, not the bigwigs, should decide who the candidates are.
Again, maybe the big money steamroller will rule the day as usual. But this time that theory has to be proven not just assumed.
Cranky
Mark S.
I’m trying to imagine a President Palin’s 3am call.
BGinCHI
@Mark S.: “Mrs. Palin, this is the police. We have your daughter in custody….”
Something like that I think.
cmorenc
@jwb :
Ever since Richard Nixon, the GOP establishment has successfully exploited a dynamic where they throw enough verbal kisses and feints to the crazier, uglier, resentful passions and insecurities of cranks, ideologues and theocrats to keep them on-board come election time, even while their serious policy efforts between elections has been concentrated toward serving the corporate and wealthy elite. After Bush’s and the congressional Republican’s accumulated failures caused the party’s fortunes to crash in 2006 and especially in 2008 and Obama’s ascendency seemed to threaten a progressive reformation of the political landscape, the GOP establishment was all too willing to feed and fertilize the growing Tea Party counter-revolution in order to try to kill Obama and any possibility of progressive reformation in as many, in any, fashion possible.
Many analogies are possible here; For just a few of them:
1) the GOP establishment fed a patch of wild bamboo, hoping it would grow into and strangle Obama and the Democrat’s garden. Good luck taming or directing bamboo once it gets roots established.
2) the GOP summoned a fierce, wild dragon to attack Obama and the Democrats, not realizing how strong, voraciously omnivorous, and untamable the dragon was, and how willing it was to turn on those who summoned, encouraged, and even fed it.
3) the GOP establishment is like Mickey in the “Sorcerer’s Apprentice” summoning the broomstick to do their work.
In short, the GOP establishment fed a monster they thought that like every other time before it, they could keep safely contained. But this time, they summoned Godzilla, and unlike the original movie, they don’t seem to have succeeded in developing an oxygen-destroyer device to stop it from stomping all over their country-club suburbs.
Zifnab
Palin isn’t interesting because she has a serious shot at the nomination (the way the primaries have been running in some states, I think a Tea Party insurgency very well may make Palin a front-runner). She’s interesting because of the schism she’ll create in her wake. If she makes a strong showing in Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina, will the party back her or buck her? If she throws her support behind a non-establishment nominee, will her Tea Party base follow her? And will the loser bow out gracefully and support the eventual nominee, or will we see an upstart third-party bid?
JGabriel
@Davis X. Machina:
First you say, “No one in politics thought Reagan was a lightweight.” When presented with evidence that Nixon thought Reagan was brainless and shallow, you argue that it was just Nixon being Nixon.
So here’s Gerald Ford:
How many dead (or living) presidents do I need to quote to show that Reagan was not regarded as a heavyweight by his political peers, especially in the 1970’s?
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Cat Lady
Huck is the only one who will get the teatards riled up to work the phones, etc. for GOTV if Palin doesn’t end up running. That’s why McCain had to pick Snooki instead of Lieberman, against his own wishes and his beltway fanbois. Romney’s a Mormon. That one fact is all you need to know about his chances among the GOP primary voters. If Huck starts strong, he’s going to be hard to beat in the winner take all primaries, and Palin will not be asked to be, nor would she ever accept being a VP candidate. I can see Huckabee/Bolton or Huckabee/Gingrich. Huck and Gingrich are both fat white southerners, so their appeal to everyone else is obviously a negative.
catclub
@MikeJ: It interesting on Nate Silver’s graph how many of the ‘outsider’ Republicans have shows on FOX.
It would be hard to imagine a Democrat with a TV show, period.
But if they did have one, it would be pretty obvious that having a TV show really makes one seriously establishment and insider.
I also noted in Nate Silver’s graph that he put Mitch Daniels as an outsider, but he is very much an insider.
Raoul
I do not believe Newt is considered acceptable- he is nuts afterall.
JGabriel
@BGinCHI:
It’s all Sarah’s fault, sadly. Never name your daughter after a port town.
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Navigator
aimai is right.
The Snowbilly was the only reason the last election wasn’t over the moment McCain came back from the dead to cross the finish line. And she knows it. A round dozen of what the DC punditry considered serious candidates, unable to break through the Mason-Dixon and wow the rubes.
I live in rural NC, and Palin is a goddess here. These are “the base,” and they are thrilled that someone as ignorant as they are can rise so far, so fast. She is as much an article of faith with them as is Reagan. And faith needs no proof.
Brachiator
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Vanity Fair did an excellent piece on Murdoch’s takeover of the Wall Street Journal. The guy who had recently risen to be editor thought that he would have some time to prove himself to Murdoch and that the paper would have some editorial independence. But it turned out that Murdoch intended from the jump to replace him with his own man. (I don’t know how to link to the story from a mobile device, but it is easily found)
I don’t buy for a second any idea that Murdoch would pause for second before dumping Hannity or Beck if they did not please him.
This has always been Murdoch’s method.
nd I have some vague recollection of stories (by which I mean again, media gossip) that even Ailes, who people say taught Dick Cheney how to rip the head off a newborn kitten so that you don’t spill a drop, thinks Beck is a clown.
birthmarker
@dmsilev: After the Tucson shootings, when Palin was pretty much making a fool of herself, one of the talking heads on cable news said almost the same thing aout her. That she needed to make a POLICY speech about the shootings and her use of gun imagery, etc., but not on Facebook or Twitter.
It’s laughable! When has she ever made a policy speech about anything? She seems to me to be the Mean Girl in Chief. All she ever really says is snide remarks about other people…the ones who actually have to handle the U.S. and world problems.
A much more conservative friend said to me, “I am getting so sick of Sarah Palin.” I have an extremely conservative relative who can’t stand her. These are both people who I am sure voted for McCain in ’08.
She’s getting pretty toxic, IMO.
JRon
Yeah, and I’m a decent leader in my company so I’m going to apply to be head coach the Steelers next year. Never mind that I know nothing about football, I just look good in Steeler colors.
It’s possible that I can find an opportunity to deliver a broadly conceived strategy for strengthening the team that uses their Super Bowl appearance to advance an understanding of the sport beyond my twitter and facebook comments.
At least it’s more likely that I could than she could understand Egypt.
JGabriel
@Brachiator:
Of course he does. The problem Ailes and Murdoch have with Beck, if they even regard him as a problem, is that they can’t cancel his show without credibility in the eyes of a large portion of their viewers.
Take Beck off the air, and much of Fox’s audience will declare that it’s bowed to lib pressure and become just like the rest of the commie media.
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srv
If the democrats had any brains, they’d get in the drivers seat now. When can a Draft Palin movement be started for Iowa?
MikeJ
@JGabriel: Mrs. Palin, this is the FA. Your daughter’s been relegated.
Davis X. Machina
@JGabriel: He was a lousy statesman. He was a good politician. A lot of presidents confused the two.
Brachiator
@JGabriel:
I have not read anything about Murdoch that he cares much at all about the sensibilities of the people who consume his products.
The only saving grace to any of what Murdoch is about is that his misguided attempt to erect pay walls for his various media projects may reduce his global influence.
ppcli
@MikeJ: In retrospect it was a mistake to make her middle name “Rovers” instead of “City”.
ppcli
@Brachiator: Given how much control Ailes and Murdoch have over their message, I am sure that all these “Republican bigwigs want Beck reined in” and “Murdoch is said to be embarrassed by Beck” stories are just being floated out there as cover in case the wind changes and they decide Beck is a major liability.
Allan
The other day, Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) tweeted a link to an article he wrote with the comment:
To which I, of course, replied:
Judas Escargot
@Zifnab:
Romney’s almost certain to win NH if he runs, and not just due to geography.
If there’s any truth to the “GOP power brokers don’t really want Palin as the nominee”, NH will be the obvious, no-holds-barred firewall. (Much as SC was Bush’s firewall against McCain back in 2000).
gbear
Ooofff. Sarah has competition:
Also too, If Michele Bachmann gets anywhere close to a nod for P or VP candidate, Tim Pawlenty will claw her eyes out.
Bob
Will E.D. provide the coverage on those “serious” Republicans here?
JPL
In May her emails from the time she was gov. are going to be released. The chances are that there will be something embarrassing and she will fade away into the night. Actually she’ll say she’s not running because the lamestreet media is mean to her family. Of course, if she wanted to put family first she wouldn’t have paraded her pregnant daughter around but her base will swoon.
imo
alwhite
Neither Gingrich nor Palin – both of them know that an actual presidential run would seriously impact their money making machine. Fleecing the rubes is what those two are all about.
Huckabee is the one that scares me most. He is a sunny face covering the heart of a complete fascist. As a Minnesotan I think Timmy’s aw shucks act won’t work as well on a national audience & Romney has that holy underwear problem working against him. There is plenty of room for a dark horse to lap this crowd of losers.
I would not be surprised to see a Bachmann type in the #2 slot as a sop to the tea-tards. Particularly if the pick is blessed by sister Sarah.
Cacti
And it’s possible that monkeys might fly out of my butt, just not very likely.
Emerald
@Loneoak:
This.
However, it doesn’t matter who (whom!) they nominate, sane or unsane. The Village and VSPs will work overtime to discover hidden strengths and seriousness even if Bachman were to win the nomination. They have to have a drama, and that requires some measure of equality in the opponents.
Lawrence O’Donnell said something wise last week: that the Rs won’t nominate someone serious unless they think they actually can beat Obama. Frankly, I don’t think they can nominate a serious person this time. No serious person can pass muster with the baggers–and certainly not Romney, who cannot win the Southern primaries.
I agree that Huck is their best shot (and was last time, too). He’s very smart and he’s a gifted politician. He’s by far the most likable candidate they have. I see him as the only real threat, unless the economy tanks again or some crisis makes Obama look bad.
But actually I expect the next real challenge will come from Jeb Bush, who has said he won’t run until 2016.
rapier
If Palin enters and stays then the possibility of an open convention rears its head. What nutter is going to run against her and then there will be a group of ‘serious’ ones. Then with the crazies loose on the floor who knows? How about The Man Called Patreaus? I think he’s waiting for 16 but another serious economic and market dislocation will throw things into a huge flux and make Obama eminently beatable. As it stands now he seem unbeatable being the reasonable centrist. If the markets dislocate again the center will be gone.
Omnes Omnibus
@rapier:Why does everyone think that Petraeus wants to run? I am not saying he doesn’t, but just because some wannabe fascists see him as their man on a horse does not mean he has any intention of obliging them.
alwhite
@Kirbster:
Love the comparison but it seems to me that W is Frado
“I’m smart, not like people say!”
It would scare me if I thought Jeb was Michael but he lost the Gov race while I lived in Florida and the official word on him was he was the dim bulb of the Bush family. I doubt he is smart enough to be Mikey but they have learned how to hide stupidity as long as the press will play along.
BGinCHI
@ppcli: I thought it was “Speedway.”
adolphus
What???
No puppy bowl open thread?
Where do I go to debate the partisan importance of hamster blimp pilots???
Yutsano
@Omnes Omnibus:
He doesn’t. Although getting to the general rank necessitates at least some political skill, he has no interest. Plus Holly has even less interest in him running.
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m guessing leaked Super Bowl commercial. Or a new Al-Qaeda threat. One of the two.
Omnes Omnibus
@adolphus:
I demand explanations.
twoseventwo
I seriously doubt Palin wants to be president or thinks she can be. (She’s savvy enough to read and understand those polls, even if her fans aren’t.) She might stand if (to put it one way) she feels she owes it to her supporters or (to put it another) she feels her brand will be terribly damaged if she doesn’t, but she’d probably be looking for excuses to drop out.
The fun would start, I suppose, if she did that and her campaign took off like a rocket and quickly built up an unassailable lead. But I don’t think she’ll stand, certainly don’t think she’ll win, and maybe the obsession people have with her (which I totally understand, it’s the same thing that makes people unable to turn their eyes from a car crash) isn’t that healthy.
adolphus
@Omnes Omnibus:
I meant a blimp piloted by hamsters, not pilots of hamster blimps.
Omnes Omnibus
@Yutsano: I suppose it could be both like the late Earl Warren.
Omnes Omnibus
@adolphus: I don’t really think that qualifies as an explanation. Do you?
MikeJ
@Omnes Omnibus: Puppy Bowl on Animal Planet.
adolphus
@Omnes Omnibus:
Clearly not watching the Puppy Bowl. This is why a Puppy Bowl thread would be helpful. I won’t even get in to the chicken cheerleader.
mr. whipple
Yes, and it’s also possible tomorrow I’ll wake up and be the Queen of England.
Yutsano
@Omnes Omnibus:
Heh. You’ve used that in court before haven’t you Counselor?
Xenos
@JGabriel:
Even worse, never name your daughter after a port town that, in Cockney rhyming slang, means “tits”.
hilts
Doug, don’t go getting my hopes up with a statement like this. Murdoch and Ailes will never fire this nail-biting, bed-wetting, malignant media carcinogen as long as he continues to dominate CNN and MSNBC in the ratings race.
JGabriel
@Xenos: Heh. Yeah, that’s problematic too.
.
Sly
I seriously doubt that the 2012 nominee will be someone who ran in 2008. The only candidates that could win from that group are Romney and Huckabee, and both of them have constituency problems. Republicans need a consensus candidate. Someone who at best makes everyone happy and at worst doesn’t piss anyone off. As much as they’ll never admit it, George W. Bush will always be their perfect choice for President.
It’s also worth noting that Citizens United applies to primaries, which is why any “star” candidate (i.e. Palin) will be eaten alive by other candidates’ 527s before the February 2012 contests.
Which is why I hope Gingrich runs, personally. No other person deserves to be cannibalized by their own party more than him.
Stillwater
@Emerald: Lawrence O’Donnell said something wise last week: that the Rs won’t nominate someone serious unless they think they actually can beat Obama.
Isn’t this just wisdom of tautology, since Odonnell will be right no matter how things play out?
Omnes Omnibus
@Yutsano: Not saying yes or no to that.
Omnes Omnibus
@Yutsano: Not saying yes or no to that.
FYWP I am not posting too quickly. You are not letting me post at all. Assmunch.
ETA: Now the first one posts, great. FYWP!
mr. whipple
I can’t wait. It’s gonna be so entertaining watching them all try to outcrazy each other. I just hope Palin runs because she’ll amp the crazy up to 111 and make it impossible for any of the other nutters to get air. The fight would be awesome.
catclub
@Cacti: “It’s possible that Ms. Palin could use the opportunity to deliver a broadly conceived foreign policy speech that uses the turmoil in Egypt to advance an understanding of her national security beliefs that goes beyond her use of Twitter messages and Facebook posts.”
Cacti said:”And it’s possible that monkeys might fly out of my butt, just not very likely.”
It is also not clear which event would be more painful.
PS
@Stillwater: To clarify: You mean that if a Republican, no matter who, runs and wins, they will ipso facto be retroactively designated “serious” no matter what they may have said in their misguided youth, which lasted until late 2012? I think you are onto something …
Mark S.
We’re going to have an open thread for the reading of the Declaration of Independence, right?
From what I can tell, this is a FOX SUPER BOWL SUNDAY tradition.
Citizen_X
Isn’t that one of those events that happens spontaneously only when you turn on the Improbability Drive?
Sly
@mr. whipple:
I didn’t reference CU in terms of the crazy. That would be there no matter what.
No, CU will allow candidates to eviscerate one another while constantly donning a veneer of respectability, because nothing can be traced back to them. They’ll be able to construct political groups and sick them on other candidates, and the more visible that candidate is the more vulnerable they will be. Remember the 2000 South Carolina push polls claiming McCain had fathered an illegitimate black child? It will be like that, only this time around it will be a hundred times more petty and nasty and on TV for millions to watch.
It will be GLORIOUS.
ThresherK
After the boffo thread title, I thought I’d toss in a more obscure one for today’s sporting event: “I busy my fingers nowadays, scoring goals with the gentlest twitch”.
JPL
Who does Murdoch and Ailes want? That’s the unknown.
Sly
As for Beck, there’s this gem from none other than Bill Kristol.
When “respectable” Republicans, such as they are, start throwing around the JBS card, its probably a good sign that someone might have just peaked.
jwb
@Sly: On the other hand, if Bill Kristol is making the prognosis, you’ll never go broke betting against.
hilts
@Sly: @jwb:
Somewhere there’s a straitjacket with Glenn Beck’s name on it
mai naem
i am gonna be a doddering ole fool when Bill Clinton has his centennial and I am gonna insist that the NFL have a big todo during the SuperBowl.
PIGL
@JPL: @JPL: I think is it a mistake to think in terms of which particular politician Murdoch wants elected. What he wants is to further a specific set of policies, or perhaps more accurately to bring about a particular set of economic and social conditions.
I think things are going splendidly for him.
Emerald
@Stillwater: Not really, because Romney or Huntsman or maybe Pawlenty would be seen as “serious,” but not Palin or Bachman or Cain, et al. I take “serious” to mean a professional politician who is connected to reality–one of the non-baggers.
I took O’Donnell’s point to mean that if the GOPers think they can’t win anyway, they’ll go with a bagger and keep the base happy. If they think Obama’s vulnerable, then they’ll run someone at least partially reasonable.
However, the flaw in O’Donnell’s point is that the “serious” people in the GOP aren’t really running the show anymore. I think the real question is whether the pros can take the reins back by nominatin’ time, or not.
agrippa
I have a good idea who the nominee will not be: Palin, Gingrich or Huckabee.
I think that the nominee will be someone safe and reasonable; a kind of sacrificial lamb such as Dole or McCain.
Obama will get about the same percentage of the vote in 2012 as he got in 2008.
Sly
@Emerald:
Fixed.
Huntsman has the same “Jesus problems” as Romney. He was the governor of Utah, remember.
A consensus candidate, or someone who appeals to all the nuts in the tree, would be someone like Rick Perry. Someone who fits in both at the megachurch and the country club. Pawlenty would be of the “fuck it, let’s just vote for X and hope they don’t screw it up beyond repair” variety, like McCain was in 2008.
Kevin
@alwhite: Skimming the comments since your “Jeb Bush was considered the dim bulb in the family”, I’m amazed no one seems to have picked up on it. If true, what does that say about the whole Bush family if Jeb was/is denser than your greatest national embarrassment in my lifetime? (58 years and counting).
Napoleon
Kevin,
I had always heard that Jeb is the smart one, and likely even harder right the W and that in a manner of speaking the left got lucky that Jeb got waylaid politically and W beat him to the prize.
NorthernMNer
Question for the room:
How certain are we that Huck is indeed running? Does he have a 527 set-up? If so, is he bringing in a lot of money? Is he hiring campaign advisors?
I just get this sense that he’s more interested in raking in the dough from Fox then spending his time, energy, and money fighting for a nomination. Oh, and he surely remembers this:
csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2009/1130/mike-huckabee-granted-clemency-to-suspect-in-cop-killing-ambush
I mean, the Willie Horton ads write themselves.
Stillwater
@Emerald: I took O’Donnell’s point to mean that if the GOPers think they can’t win anyway,
I think that’s O’Donnell’s hedge, right there. Personally, I think this whole ‘if the GOP doesn’t think they can win’ stuff is just bobblehead analysis to prevent admitting the disaster that the GOP has become. I mean, who seriously believes – given all the crazy shit that’s happened in recent history – that Obama is unbeatable? (Wouldn’t you fire somebody who said that if they were on your side?)
I agree with you about who’s a ‘serious’ candidate. I just think the GOP is no longer be driving the bus, and the unserious, non-establishment, supposedly unelectable candidate who may get nominated needs to be explained away in advance – in this case as a rational decision by the GOP PTB to throw a bone to the baggers. But if that candidate wins, then it will be regarded as masterful politicking by the old-guard Nixonian elements of the GOP.
Blue Carolinian
Jeb is retired. For good. He has said this a million fucking times!
God, sometimes I think some liberals has a perverse nostalgia for the Dubya era.
PIGL
@Blue Carolinian: Exactly. Because no politician has ever told anything but the truth. For example, George The Lesser never mentioned oil in the runup to Iraq.
Blue Carolinian
Why lie about that?
Whats the motive?
Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@Brachiator:
See, I think you hit on it here. It seems like people here are looking at the nomination like a general election: This guy’s crazy; that one said hateful things; the other one is a wife-beating creep (an example; for the record, I don’t know if any of these people beat their wives–or husbands–but I wouldn’t bet against it); therefore, they’ll never win the nomination.
But the nomination is not the general election. Things that hurt people in the general will only help in the Republican primaries, or at worst, will be waved away as unimportant. Gingrich cheated on his wives? Meaningless. He’s a Real, True Christian, so it doesn’t matter. Barbour is a bigot? Well, he won’t win the nomination, but for other reasons; being a bigot won’t hurt. Bachmann is knows less about the Constitution, or really, anything, than an average doorknob? Well, “smart” just = “elitists”. As I said above, I haven’t seen any suggestion, much less proof, thaat any prospective candidates beat their wives, but to be truthful, it wouldn’t shock me to learn that being a wife-beater might actually win votes from Republican primary voters…
Blue Carolinian
Why lie about that?
If a candidate is running they make a cutesy statement about leaving doors open, not Sherman statements.
Blue Carolinian
Jeb Bush speculation is even stupider than the Gore 08 speculation.
agrippa
I do not think that the GOP has anyone who can win in 2012.
My concern is the Congress. The Democrats have to get back the majority in 2012.
Xenos
@Napoleon: Re. JEB Bush: the way I had heard it was that JEB had a number of Bimbo Eruption issues that made him toxic. If so, that may no longer be the case if Gingrich is a viable candidate.
priscianus jr
@Cranky Observer: