You’ve probably seen some of the REPUBLICANS IN DISARRAY pieces like this one. They’re interesting and here are the important take-aways: (1) there is real conflict between the teatards and the non-teatards in the House, (2) Boehner is not a strong leader in terms of keeping the the teatards in line, and (3) House leadership doesn’t seem inclined to do anything that crazy.
That means my ideas about impending impeachment and so on are probably all wrong. I’m sure we will see lots of nutty remarks and investigations, but I don’t see Boehner getting behind the scandal-mongering the way Gingrich did, not based on what we’re seeing so far. I also don’t see Republicans staying in line the way they did between 1994 and 2006. There just doesn’t seem to be a counterpart to Gingrich or DeLay, at least not now, and, moreover, Fox/right-wing radio gives the renegades an independent power base that wasn’t available in the same way before.
Sockpuppet
You? Being excitable and (genuinely) shrill? Well, I never…
Violet
Well, the National Enquirer claims Boehner had multiple affairs. Perhaps he isn’t going to be in the Speaker role too long?
kindness
Or perhaps Boehner knows teh Teabaggers are teh nutzoids and doesn’t want to follow them over the proverbial cliff, unlike the Republicans of the past?
Jay C
Naaah, just give it a little time – the House GOP has only been seated for what, five weeks? I’m sure that after the House GOP have floated their jobs/economics plan (You know, the one that focuses on anti-abortion obsessions, and repealing any and all healthcare reforms), they’ll get down to the real business at hand: overheated, over-publicized “investigations” of anything and everything the Obama Administration has done, is doing, or might do. But most likely, not til next year, in time for the primaries/elections. Just by coincidence of course….
liberal
Shouldn’t use a binary will/will not happen, but rather a likelihood/statistical prediction approach.
Impeachment: unlikely but hardly extremely unlikely.
danimal
The GOP is doing a worse job than I anticipated in herding their caucus cats. Their lack of unity will destroy their political effectiveness and the Tea Partiers will turn on them with a vengeance. Some of that has been baked in the cake for a while (there’s no way they can ever keep a number of their promises), but if all they can pass are symbolic measures on abortion and HCR repeal, 2012 could be an absolute rout.
nestor
bugmenot now sends me to the NYT corrections page.
It was a good run, I guess.
Rick Massimo
Au contraire. It’s “unite against the common enemy” time. Although I agree with Jay C that they might wait a little longer, for reasons completely and totally unrelated to the 2012 elections.
hilts
Jon Kyl won’t run again
Kyl offered no explanation for his decision to bow out other than simply being ready to end his tenure. “I really can’t explain it any better than to say, my heart says it’s time,” Kyl said. “Let me hasten to say that there is nothing negative about the decision.”
h/t http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/kyl-will-announ.php
nisl
Bohner is just too busy right now trying to create jobs!
Ha! That was some quality snark.
I’m sure Orange Man will get the teatards in line just as soon as he’s done refilling his tear ducts… So I guess it might take a few more weeks.
cyntax
Well, that was a refreshing little silver lining.
stuckinred
Apparently “binary” is the word of the day. It was all over the poon-tang thread earlier.
Cat Lady
Boehner has gone from Orange to Maroon. We can use him as a teatard threat level advisory system.
Zifnab
I don’t see how. Republicans are going to have to come together on something, and there’s little they agree on more than “We hate Obama!”
Impeachment seems like a perfect place to invest large sums of time, so that we can all pretend the Republicans are doing something.
TooManyJens
@nestor: NYT has been really aggressive about purging bugmenot logins lately. I finally broke down and just created my own with a throwaway address and no information.
Paul in KY
I think the Patriot Act non-recertifying is Kabuki Theater. It will get recertified (the ‘normal’ way) & the Repubers who wanted to look more ‘independent’ had their chance to vote against it & will/can vote against it again when all it will take is a simple majority to pass it.
Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac
Impeachment hearings are going to be directly tied to Obama’s approval ratings. That’s all.
This is a group of hyenas, waiting for wounded prey, not lions.
Phoenician in a time of Romans
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
RossInDetroit
Consider the TP-ers as individuals more than as a group or a caucus. As outsiders, they have far less institutional loyalty.
It’s not a matter of getting them all in line. It’s getting EACH of them in line. A much more difficult task.
JPL
@hilts: What are the chances that Sarah declares residency and runs. She knows she can’t win the Presidency so why not.
Napoleon
@TooManyJens:
What is a bugmenot login?
Cat Lady
@Violet:
IOKIYAR. See Ensign, John.
RossInDetroit
@Phoenician in a time of Romans:
Slouching toward Bethlehem indeed.
That poem gets quoted a lot. I’ve quoted it myself and it really creeps me out.
hilts
@Phoenician in a time of Romans:
Let America be America again.
Let it be the dream it used to be.
Let it be the pioneer on the plain
Seeking a home where he himself is free.
(America never was America to me.)
Let America be the dream the dreamers dreamed–
Let it be that great strong land of love
Where never kings connive nor tyrants scheme
That any man be crushed by one above.
(It never was America to me.)
O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe…
O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath–
America will be!
h/t http://www.poets.org/viewmedia.php/prmMID/15609
El Cid
I was thinking that impeachment calls were going to come from at least one or two Republican committees.
But at the moment I don’t hear much about various crazy investigations. I thought that by now those would be headline news.
NobodySpecial
I just wanna know
Which way do I go
To get to your America?
Pangloss
You have to expect that at a certain point, the GOP leadership and the Teabaggers will clasp hands and floor it, a la Thelma and Louise.
Ash Can
@hilts:
Bimbo eruption in 3…2…1…
Ann B. Nonymous
Someone’s already brought up Boehner’s possible Rielle eruption. An interesting day for “the ruggedly handsome congressman.”
hilts
@JPL:
I don’t think Sarah Palin has the guts to run for any political office. She’s too thin skinned to deal with even the mildest form of press scrutiny. I think she’ll just keep doing speaking engagements and try to negotiate a bigger salary for pontificating on Fox News Channel.
jheartney
@JPL:
Sarah wouldn’t want to be a Senator. In fact, she’d rather not even have to campaign. Her current gig (hiding behind Facebook/Twitter and nipping out for the occasional lucrative speech to a friendly audience) is way too cushy. Besides, running for anything other than POTUS is beneath her now.
dmsilev
That’s because the teabaggers, by and large, didn’t get elected due to some large pot of money controlled by their party leadership. The large pots of money came from elsewhere, and were largely devoted to tearing down Democrats rather than building up Republicans. I suspect that as Republican-dominated lobbyists start to sink their claws into the new kids, you’ll see an increase in party discipline.
dms
soonergrunt
@kindness: Remember what all the wingers were saying about the NE at the time it was reporting the John Edwards Love Child ™ thing– that the NE might be a little sleazy, but that they were really, really good at that kind of story so it was most likely true. Oh, how they crowed. Johah “The Whale” Goldberg was most annoying on the subject. And of course, the NE actually DID have the story.
Cue various tabloid headlines about “Boehner’s Boner.”
Judas Escargot
@Pangloss:
You have to expect that at a certain point, the GOP leadership and the Teabaggers will clasp hands and floor it, a la Thelma and Louise.
When are we supposed to hit the debt ceiling? April?
hilts
Paul Ryan’s chief economics advisers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfq5kju627c
Ash Can
On the topic of the House not actually having done anything so far, I recall the new GOP House leadership saying that they were imposing a 3-day work week on the House (and rejoicing over the prospect of this lessening the damage the Republicans could do). Has this in fact happened? If so, this could be a reason for the lack of action (and lack of any larger messes) so far.
Dave
I think part of this chaos is that Boehner isn’t that good of a floor manager. Or would that be Cantor’s screw-up? How do you botch a bill with Republicans that takes away money from the UN?? Isn’t that their bread-and-butter?
Michael
@Jay C:
I’m really looking forward to the hearings on the secret Obama goals on the SPP, the Amero and the plot to impose Sharia law…
soonergrunt
@Napoleon: bugmenot is a fake address service that provides pre-created logons for people to use to view some sites like the WaPo, the NYT, the LAT, and others that require an account to view content. It prevents you from being flooded with emails soliciting subscriptions and partner services and such.
Nobody Important
“…I don’t see Boehner getting behind the scandal-mongering the way Gingrich did…”
And I don’t see Boehner actually being Speaker for two whole years. I think that screwing a lobbyist who is outsourcing jobs from your own district is something that isn’t going to go over with his constituents. It’s very different than wearing diapers and banging prostitutes or picking up dudes in airport bathrooms.
He may well be replaced by a real Teahadist.
Calouste
OT: Mubarak is going to give a speech at the top of the hour and rumors are he will announce his resignation.
hilts
@Ash Can:
Joe Scarborough: “So many Republicans tell me this is a guy [John Boehner] that is not the hardest worker in the world. After 5 o’clock, 6 o’clock at night, he is disengaged at best. You can see him around town. He does not have, let’s say, the work hours of Newt Gingrich.”
h/t http://thinkprogress.org/2010/06/30/boehner-lazy-scarbrough/
shortstop
He’s an excellent floor manager until lunchtime. Then the three drinks kick in and all authority vanishes.
Dave
@hilts:
A variation on the theme…
Brachiator
This is small cheese. The GOP controls the House, which puts them in control of money bills. They are actively pursuing their “interesting,” and irresponsible, agenda to cut spending, reduce services, and obstruct any and all Democratic Party proposals.
They are running full tilt on their favorite sacred cow, anti-abortion rights, with anti-gay rights not far behind.
Obama judicial and executive appointments still face huge uphill battles in the Senate. No one can be sure of what deals may have to be cut to get anything done.
Boehner may not be a strong strong leader, but he and other Republican leaders have been smart enough to keep quiet over the Administration’s handling of the crisis in Egypt (so far). But we don’t know what kind of foolishness is going to emerge from the idiot Republicans who are now on key House committees.
I still expect some scandal-mongering, but this is the smallest ring in the Circus of Doom that the Beltway is becoming.
Tony J
I think Jay C and Rick have it right. Come the Republican Primaries the corporate GOP are going to need a big shiny-shiny to lure the MSM away from the knives-out, crazier-than-thou Deathrace 2011 knock-off they’ll be involved in. House investigations of the White House will throw up so many easy headlines that the MSM are going to have to portion them out just to cover half of them, and the candidates are going to want to talk about nothing else.
Then come 2012 and the run-up to the Election, the House Majority will ‘reluctantly’ conclude that they have no honourable course left but to vote for Obama’s impeachment on a dozen counts of violating the Constitition, up to and including anything they can pin on him that was just fine and legal when Bush did it. But they’ll dribble them out so the Senate can’t vote them all down at once, leaving a few hanging for the next Senate to consider.
Given what you know of the MSM, how do you think they’ll cover the Election under these circumstances?
Captain Goto
OT but worth mentioning: Al Jazeera sez that the Egyptian military “commits to uphold the people’s rights”, tells protesters “their demands will be met.”
Mubarak to speak within the hour.
http://www.youtube.com/aljazeeraenglish?feature=ticker
hilts
@Dave:
Thanks for that link
Mitt Romney rewrites book to make himself look less reasonable
http://www.salon.com/news/mitt_romney/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/02/10/romney_rewrites_book
Captain Goto
And Calouste beat me to it.
fasteddie9318
@Captain Goto:
I suspect there might be just a bit of daylight between what the Egyptian military thinks the protesters demands are and what the protesters think their demands are. I wonder how hard the army will try to “persuade” the demonstrators that what the army is prepared to give them is what they really wanted all along.
Captain Goto
@fasteddie9318: I find that highly possible. If it weren’t for the lives at stake, still a heckuva popcorn moment.
mr. whipple
Never underestimate the GOP’s ability to get more crazy. They have just begun the insane.
Dave
@fasteddie9318: It’ll be interesting. In Egypt, though, the Army is highly respected by the populace. And it’s a conscript army, so the rank-and-file are connected to the citizenry in a very real way. If they see themselves as the protectors of Egypt and the people, it could be a good turnout.
Comrade Javamanphil
Don’t seem inclined to do anything about the crazy either.
Dan
keeping the repubs in line is hard work and bohner is lazy and would rather play golf. anything that gets in the way of his 18 holes is just a nuisance.
geg6
@fasteddie9318:
This.
Ash Can
@hilts: If my fellow Americans are going to elect a horse’s ass to federal government, I’d just as soon s/he be the least dangerous horse’s ass possible. If Boehner’s laziness/drinking/personality/whatever prevents him from appreciably advancing the GOP’s nefarious agenda, then even though I object to footing the bill for a loafer, I’m thankful for that much, at least.
nestor
@shortstop:
I don’t blame him. Everyone is against you when you’re a floor manager
Turgidson
I think I’d be more surprised to learn that Boehner has NOT been a philanderer for the past…well, since he got married, than the opposite.
I mean…just look at the guy. The sleaze just drips off him.
Chyron HR
@Dan:
18 holes?! Damn, that’s at least 12 more than the Enquirer reported!
me
@nestor: Try this link.
cmorenc
@Ash Can :
Actually then, that might be some of the most productive money we will have ever spent, if it helps minimize the sorts of organized damage the GOP can do over the next two years and limits them to whatever the disorganized lunacy of clumps of individual members can disaccomplish.
Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
@Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac: I agree, and that’s a great metaphor. Thanks for it.
Triassic Sands
Perhaps Boehner will get behind impeachment if it seems like the only way to unite House Republicans. Those ‘tards are proving to be a pesky bunch.
If things really do go poorly for the Republicans — and given what a bunch of lunatics and incompetents they are, that doesn’t seem altogether unlikely — what better way to divert attention from their own shortcomings than to trump up some charges against Obama.
RossInDetroit
@Turgidson:
Not really fair. I’m no fan of the guy but looking like a manslut isn’t really damning. Now if they turn up some texts or phone messages it’s game on.
El Cid
The army is in general respected by the Egyptian public, as the army, but they do not appear to want the military dictatorship to continue with non-Mubarak leadership.
At present that’s the strategy of the military, and what evidence there is has the US backing a continuation of the basic existing power structure — i.e., continued military-backed rule.
Which is not to say that the US foreign policy establishment (i.e., not just the Administration) wouldn’t prefer a much more decent elected government. They would. It would be more stable. Probably. Unless it made a disaster of policies itself.
Just as long as the real power center makes sure Egypt keeps doing what the US FPE prefers.
DougJ®
@liberal:
I would still argue that my ideas about why it was likely are wrong ideas.
suzanne
@Turgidson:
If I look at him, all I can think about is how I don’t have enough ten-foot poles. God, he’s gross.
That’s self-tanner.
Calouste
@El Cid:
And with the US FPE in this particular scenario we mean Israel, amirite? They’ve been pretty clear that they would be sad to see a reliable dictator go and have anything like democracy next door.
Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q)
@RossInDetroit: There have been whispers of merlot fueled meanderings outside his matrimony since he was in the Ohio statehouse. Smoke, fire would be my guess.
OT, El Cid, thank you for your excellence with the insane la_chan of late. Made my evening.
suzanne
From the AZ Republic: “He ruled out bids for governor or president but reiterated that he would consider a vice presidential nomination.”
Barf.
El Cid
@Another Commenter at Balloon Juice (fka Bella Q): No problem. I was driven to it, not enticed to it.
Svensker
@soonergrunt:
When I worked in Hollywood it was my experience that the NE usually was right on the money, if a bit lurid about it. Course, that was a hundred years ago, so things may have changed.
El Cid
@Calouste: Actually, no, that’s not really my opinion. Sort of, but sort of not.
The US FPE really wants the things Israel does, because of their definition of ‘utility’ that Israel serves as a gigantically, overwhelmingly armed, non-Arab, non-Muslim nation in its location.
I think there are very, very few times in which Israeli policymakers force the US to do things that the US FPE seriously opposes.
Then again, there’s this:
The region’s autocracies oppose the outbreak of potential democracy as much as anyone.
However, I don’t think Abdullah should have been afraid about the funding question, since the best way for US policymakers to have control over Egypt is to continue military aid and thus hiring the actual power center of Egypt.
I don’t think the US would in reality (some tossed-off statements aside, undercut as usual via some back channel or newly approved program for the Egyptian military) cut aid unless the military threatened to do things which the US wasn’t paying it to do.
The Saudi regime, however, appears to grasp that too open of a pro-Mubarak, anti-Egyptian-protestor attitude is more fuel for the slight degree of dissent in Saudi Arabia. (In the same way regimes like that pretend to care about the Palestinians, as a play to their public to seem like they give a shit, and Wikileaks has exposed this pathetic, population-deceiving joke for a number of Middle Eastern Arab governments.)
But an increase in activities of the Saudi opposition is something, even if it’s small.
The big Western powers have every incentive and precedent to prevent anything from troubling the Saudi oil, power, and money source.
Turgidson
@RossInDetroit:
I agree it’s not fair in a vacuum, but there’s the tales of his boozing and dozens of lobbyist-paid golf junkets he attends, plus his utter comfort with lying about…well, anything, politics-wise. And THEN there’s the fact that he just plain looks like a scumbag.
But yes, he may be a devoted husband and family man for all I know. Just saying, finding out otherwise would surprise me not at all.
Senyordave
@Tony J:
I just don’t buy that they will try to impeach Obama on things that Bush did. They’ll have t come up with something resembling a smoking gun or the MSM will actually report on it. As rdiciulous as Clinton’s impeachment was, there was a smoking gun, the lying under oath. That is a crime under any definition, and that was the hook to get MSM along for the ride.
In the absence of a smoking gun there will be major pushback against impeachment.
wvng
Their problem is that they are functionally leaderless, and they are rudderless without a dear leader to rally around. They are used to following a person, and that person does not exist within the legislature. The only unifying figure I can think of for them right now, the only figure that commands unquestioning obedience throughout the party, is Limbaugh.
Jay C
@Senyordave: @Tony J:
What I think, too: The Clinton impeachment was, IMO, pretty much of a one-shot deal: the GOP had gotten a big majority in Congress; the Special Prosecutor law was still in force for them to abuse; the novelty of government-by-investigation was still, well, a novelty (especially AFA the media were concerned) — and their target was, of course, President Bubba Horndog hisself: whose indiscretions were legendary.
I don’t thing an impeachment circus would have anything like the effect it did in 1998: save, perhaps, to utterly shatter whatever residual attraction the GOP might have for any voters outside the hardcore-wingnut 30%. Reasoning?
1. Barack Obama isn’t Bill Clinton: he keeps his pants zipped, for one thing – and he’s way too smart to give away anything to his political enemies.
2. Factor 1 means that any serious push for impeachment would have to be done on “policy” grounds (a shaky proposition) — or some tabloid/blogger bullsh*t “scandal” which would be even shakier.
3. (Most of) the media won’t, I don’t think, fall for an impeachment drive as anything but a cheap, desperate gimmick (Fox and the starboard blogosphere excepted, naturally — but their audience is limited).
Brachiator
The GOP is clearly able to push their agenda. This just in:
So now, the question is how the Democrats are going to deal with the craziness of a GOP pushed agenda without a directed GOP leadership (as in the Bush/Cheney regime).
bob h
but I don’t see Boehner getting behind the scandal-mongering the way Gingrich did,
Darrell Issa not being the ideal vehicle for launching such investigations.
morzer
@bob h:
He’s a sociopath, fraudster, and hate-peddling buffoon. He seems almost over-qualified, from a GOP viewpoint.