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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / The Triumph of Hope Over Experience — Or…

The Triumph of Hope Over Experience — Or…

by Tom Levenson|  February 11, 20114:02 pm| 45 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs

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…Can the Egyptian protesters of Tahrir Square save not only their own country but Israel, now seemingly committed to a slow murder-suicide pact with the Palestinians?

__

I’ve resisted commenting on the Egypt uprising because I have no real knowledge or historical depth to offer, and I lack both time and resources to do the reporting that would even begin to unearth useful nuggets from anyone else.

__

But I’ve just read Kai Bird’s piece in Foreign Policy, and he makes with actual local experience the argument I’ve been hoping might hold water.

__

That would be that a peaceful Egyptian repudiation of Mubarak would force on Israel the really hard choice it’s been able to resist until now:  how to confront the reality that an occupation larded with occasionally explicit hopes for permanent apartheid and/or ethnic cleansing cannot hold forever.

The outcome of four decades of occupation (beyond a seemingly bottomless well of individual tragedy) has been, of course, to hold both Palestine aborning and Israel itself hostage to the worst and most violent urges in the respective communities.  My fear and sorrow has been that there is no good outcome possible as long as Israelis have been able to depend on overwhelming military force to keep Palestinians out of meaningful contact both with them and their Arab neighbors.

__

But, as Bird points out, assuming that the removal of Mubarak leads to the creation of a genuinely democratic Egype, the game changes.

He writes:

…in the long run, the emergence of an Arab democratic polity should convince Israeli voters that their leaders have become too complacent and too isolationist. After Tahrir, a majority of Israelis may conclude that they can’t live in the neighborhood without forging a real peace with their neighbors.

__

The separation wall was never a real answer to Israel’s security predicament, and it will be less so when a democratically elected government governs Egypt. The policy of separation — hafrada in Hebrew — had some short-term strategic viability when the largest Arab country was willing to police Israel’s southern border and keep Hamas penned up inside its Gaza prison. But no legitimate government in Cairo will be able to continue its complicity with the Gaza blockade — particularly not if the Muslim Brotherhood is a player in a new government.

Bird (and I) understand that the endgame is not yet begun in Egypt.  Lots can still go wrong, of course.  But for a long time now plenty of Israelis have known (if not always acknowledged) that security and the tense calm of daily life inside the Green Line or in the Territories is not sustainable forever purely on the strength of the IDF.  The challenge has always been to drive that knowledge home hard enough to overcome the very real fears and the equally real, and perhaps more daunting domestic political obstacles to move forward on a liveable peace deal.

__

Here again, Bird is not a naif:

Hamas’s ideology is certainly vile, but it won the last Palestinian legislative election in 2006 and has more or less observed a cease-fire with Israel since early 2009. In December 2010, the Hamas prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, announced that his party would abide by any peace settlement if it were to be ratified by a referendum of the Palestinian people. Furthermore, as we recently learned from Al Jazeera’s Palestine Papers — the leaked documents on the 2008 Abbas-Olmert talks — the two sides are not that far apart on a comprehensive peace settlement that would create a Palestinian state.

__

[That last link takes you to a NYT piece by my friend and fellow congregation-member Bernie Avishai.  Which means I can tell you from  personal knowledge that Bernie is smart, deeply versed in the region, committed to peace, and at the same time is by no means a sucker.]

So, there it is:  it’s a dog-bites-man story that we often need most that which we like least.  Take your cod-liver oil folks (well–maybe not that).  In that vein, I’ve been thinking — and now Bird tells me I’m not crazy —  that this Egyptian demand that their voices be heard in Egypt, may be exactly what’s needed to compel Israelis  to confront the precariousness of their current approach to security in Israel and Palestine.

__

Bird again:

So here is the uplifting news: What is happening in Tahrir Square may actually propel the politicians in Washington, Jerusalem, and Ramallah to forge the Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that all of us know is there for the taking. And if that doesn’t happen? Absent a comprehensive peace settlement, Israel and the United States will find themselves increasingly isolated in the new Middle East.

As Bird both hopes and fears, so do I.  But better that fraught hope — thank you, Egyptians  — than none at all.

__

Images:  Jan van Eyck, Jews and Heathens, Ghent Altarpiece, detail, 1432.

Jean Mielot, Jerusalem from the Dome of the Rock, Illustration from a French MSS of 1455 of  Descriptio Terrae Sanctae, Burchard du Mont-Sion, 1283

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45Comments

  1. 1.

    JAHILL10

    February 11, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    I think this take is viable. Status quo was death to the two-state peace process in Israel/Palestine. Now they have to get moving since (hopefully!) soon Israel will not be able to claim to be the only real democracy in the region.

  2. 2.

    Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)

    February 11, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    Furthermore, as we recently learned from Al Jazeera’s Palestine Papers—the leaked documents on the 2008 Abbas-Olmert talks—the two sides are not that far apart on a comprehensive peace settlement that would create a Palestinian state.

    What’s the Hamas take on this?

  3. 3.

    Cat Lady

    February 11, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    It’s exceedingly rare in the course of human events that a situation emerges in which no one – and I mean no one – has any idea what’s going to happen next, or what the thing that just happened actually means, including and most especially the Egyptians. Israel is going to have to re-evaluate its MO, as will the US and its allies in that region, and that may mean some psychotic breaks on a national scale will happen. DeNile ain’t just a river in Egypt, and facing a strange fluid new reality isn’t easy for anyone. I keep getting this very strong gut sense that we are all Mayans now. Wheeeee!

  4. 4.

    Continental Op

    February 11, 2011 at 4:28 pm

    The immediate question is Will Egypt continue to cooperate in the blockade of Gaza?

  5. 5.

    Tom Levenson

    February 11, 2011 at 4:33 pm

    @Continental Op: Dunno. (See the top of the post.) But if I were a betting man on how long the blockade holds on the Egypt side, I’d take the under.

    That said — lots of nations think twice about open borders with a large and impoverished population waiting for access to labor markets already under strain. Egypt has its own national interests, just like everyone else, and its realpolitic may conflict with popular moral judgment just as much as that same tension exists elsewhere. Still — I’d guess that in this moment of high emotion it will be extremely difficult to assert an Egyptian version of such prudential thinking even if it exists.

    And remember always what I keep saying: I know nothing more than any other newspaper reader on this. You get what you pay for here.

  6. 6.

    Poopyman

    February 11, 2011 at 4:35 pm

    Well, I have to agree with Bird’s last words there; no one knows. And where does it spread from here? And what does that portend for Israel?

    We live in interesting times, that’s for sure.

  7. 7.

    Poopyman

    February 11, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    And just to connect with events on the ground, here’s a blurb from The Guardian a while ago:

    7.30pm GMT: More reaction from Gaza, with Sami Abu Zuhri, the Hamas spokesman, issuing a statement tonight, saying Hamas was standing beside Egypt’s “revolution victory” and backing its demands.
    __
    We congratulate the Egyptian people of this victory. We consider these results a victory for the people’s will, stand, and sacrifices….
    __
    It criticised the Mubarak regime for its assistance in imposing a blockade on Gaza, adding:
    __
    “We are calling the new Egyptian leadership to announce immediately to leave the siege on Gaza and open the Rafah crossing from the Egyptian side and guarantee the free of movements and start the reconstruction.”

    But I agree that an immediate opening of the border would not be in Egypt’s interest at this point.

  8. 8.

    Turbulence

    February 11, 2011 at 4:44 pm

    @Tom Levenson:
    That said—lots of nations think twice about open borders with a large and impoverished population waiting for access to labor markets already under strain.

    Ah, but you’re not thinking like an Egyptian. The way I see it, a border that allows for a small amount of human traffic and tons of merchandise traffic is awesome. I mean, Egypt could just charge something exorbitant for an entry visa: that would allow important people to cross the border freely. And import/export duties would bring in lots of cash to Egypt. And make life better for people in Gaza. There are huge gains to be had from trade after all.

    On the other hand, the reason that Egypt under Mubarak didn’t do that was because the US paid him not to. If the US keeps paying a new Egyptian government not to do that, who knows what it will do.

  9. 9.

    MonkeyBoy

    February 11, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    Israel needs enemies and is not beyond helping to maintain them. Threats against Israel promotes solidarity and helps keep Jews Jewish.

    The biggest threat to Israel is not from genocidal neighbors but from assimilation into the middle east where non non-or-slightly religious Jews can marry people of Muslim heritage. Contrast this situation to the US where a large percentage of Jews are assimilating (though usually not to degree of becoming Christian).

    The 1-state solution is rejected as being tantamount to the destruction of Israel because in a situation where assimilation is unthinkable Palestinians will out breed Jews and take over a democratic government.

  10. 10.

    srv

    February 11, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    This is really Likud’s wet dream. They will lurch through the right goalpost and start running for the bleachers. The left will try to make hay of this, but they will be crushed as any Gaza Drama plays out.

    Whether they end up with Sulieman, Sulieman-lite or some multi-party disfunctional gov’t, the Army Inc. is still going to be in the drivers seat. Their choices are to stay in the western orbit, or move to one around China. Neither is going to tolerate a long-term aggressive stance against the neighborhood. Israel and China had good relations for a long, long time.

  11. 11.

    ThatLeftTurnInABQ

    February 11, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    So here is the uplifting news: What is happening in Tahrir Square may actually propel the politicians in Washington, Jerusalem, and Ramallah

    I can see how the landscape apres Mubarak may of necessity, if for no other reason, look different now as seen from Jerusalem and Ramallah. But what is going to force the folks in Washington, DC to see things differently? Especially the ones who have traditionally been major obstacles (on our side of the ocean) to the peace process and who oppose a two-state solution?

  12. 12.

    matoko_chan

    February 11, 2011 at 5:02 pm

    @Continental Op: the immediate answer is no.
    The MB doesnt recognize either the state of Israel or the Blockade.
    the blockade has likely gone semi-porous from the egyptian side already, due to the distractions of 18 days of protest..

  13. 13.

    Amir_Khalid

    February 11, 2011 at 5:03 pm

    At some point the new management in Egypt — once they are in place — will want to sit down with the US and Israel, to work out how things are going to be from here on out. It’s going to be interesting to listen to what gets said in the meantime, and by who, as the players in Egypt jockey for position in the new order. I don’t really expect wholesale change on the Egypt-Israel relationship, but I do expect Israel will be asked to make some concessions. And then I expect the American, Israel-first right to scream bloody murder over anything they can paint as bad for Israel.

  14. 14.

    dollared

    February 11, 2011 at 5:06 pm

    @Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again): Dude, love the handle. I try to be Temporarily Paul Hornung every other Saturday night.

  15. 15.

    JPL

    February 11, 2011 at 5:07 pm

    Our policies with the middle east have always led to Blood Money. My hope would be that Netanyahu would rethink his policies but he won’t. It is interesting times.

  16. 16.

    jl

    February 11, 2011 at 5:09 pm

    My understanding is that the civilian government is out, the legislature is dissolved and Suleiman is out. What’s left? The judiciary? Not sure if there is a shred of civilian authority left in national government or not.

    The army runs things. So, what happened was a nonviolent military coup. I read several places that Mubarak said that was the only thing that would make him go, so looks like the military decided to accept his invitation.

    So, the military now runs Egypt, and I think ‘irreversible’ movements towards reform and some form of democracy, depends on what that institution decides to do.

    Maybe the military will follow through. Maybe the military will fix up a new militarily backed authoritarian sham democracy (like the one that led to Mubarak) but fixed up to be more palatable and can be passed off as the real thing to the population, which might or might not work. And if it does work, may work in an ugly overtly authoritarian way, or a more polite way.

    I think that is the status. Far to early to say that we have witnessed any kind of big history making yet, I think.

    Edit; I guess one thing the national security wonks will like about the situation is that if the military is in charge, that will probably mean much more stabilty in terms of Israel for near future.

  17. 17.

    Delia

    February 11, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    @Tom Levenson:

    That said—lots of nations think twice about open borders with a large and impoverished population waiting for access to labor markets already under strain.

    I don’t know a lot more than what I read, either, though I also have a brother-in-law who’s done a lot of agricultural consulting projects in Arab countries. But I do think that this is the other key (besides the Israelis) to the Palestinians predicament. A lot of their neighbors may sympathize with them, but view them on the whole as a destabilizing force.

  18. 18.

    Amir_Khalid

    February 11, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    @matoko_chan: You keep on saying that the Bros are the only game in town. Did you read their statement, as quoted in a previous thread here? They say they intent to be a party in negotiating the post-Mubarak order, but are not seeking power for themselves. In fact, they say they’re not going to put up a candidate for President.

    I just don’t see Egypt turning around and suddenly adopting a hostile stance toward Israel; this revolution was about getting rid of Mubarak, not about ditching the post-Camp David order. I think the new management will examine its options carefully before acting, and it won’t be so rash.

  19. 19.

    Redshift

    February 11, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    Josh Marshall had a good piece a few days ago in a somewhat similar vein. Basically, he argued that the Netanyahu government’s decision to piss off Turkey, a previously friendly Muslim country, seemed to be based in part on a short-sighted assumption that nothing would change on their southern border.

  20. 20.

    Redshift

    February 11, 2011 at 5:21 pm

    @Tom Levenson: As others have pointed out, the choice isn’t between open borders and a blockade. As with so many issues, there’s a lot of middle ground.

  21. 21.

    Ash Can

    February 11, 2011 at 5:21 pm

    If Egypt does go the full representative democracy route, how long before it gets its own AIPAC?

  22. 22.

    WyldPirate

    February 11, 2011 at 5:23 pm

    @jl:

    So, the military now runs Egypt, and I think ‘irreversible’ movements towards reform and some form of democracy, depends on what that institution decides to do.

    The military was running Egypt under Mubarak–Mubark was from the military as were the rest of the crooks running his country.

    All of this hoopla over Egypt is rather humorous. They will get another set of crooks from the military running things skimming billions out of the Egyptian economy. They may or may not make minor adjustments to put on a bright, new shiny facade for the people to placate their desire for change.

    This reminds me in many ways of the night Obama won the election and the day of Obama’s inaugural. Millions of people out in the streets–each of whom were infected with HopeyChangeyItis showing bright smiles of joy and glimmers of a better future for themselves and their families. Months later, the reality sets in—“meet the new boss, not too much damned different than the old boss”.

  23. 23.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 11, 2011 at 5:34 pm

    @WyldPirate: Nothing will ever get better, so why try? Is that it? FFS this may not work out well for the Egyptians, but, damn, they are doing something about their condition and it could work out for them.

  24. 24.

    Amir_Khalid

    February 11, 2011 at 5:42 pm

    We have to hope that political change in Egypt won’t just be cosmetic, that the military won’t just install a new boss and carry on as before. But it’s heartening that they’ve decided not to go to war with the people (not this time, anyway) so it’s just possible they could be willing to give up enough of their political power to make for a meaningful advance toward democracy.

  25. 25.

    Turbulence

    February 11, 2011 at 5:46 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Nothing will ever get better, so why try?

    To be fair, if you had to suffer the horrors of being as big a loser as WyldPirate, you’d probably think that nothing ever gets better too.

  26. 26.

    WyldPirate

    February 11, 2011 at 5:48 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Let’s put it this way, OO, I’m skeptical as hell and with good reason; the entire region has no real history of any sort of democracy working. On top of that, it’s a cesspool of corruption. (Not too different than here, really except the “pay off/bribes” to the pols has been nicely legitimized via lobbying and there is the pretense of giving a shit when the corruption gets too overt/outlandish.

    I’m happy for the Egyptian people that this entire business didn’t tun into a bloodbath that spread throughout the region. My guess is that very little change will come from things. They (the military) are too practiced at running a good money making venture that was propped up by the US government.

    Shit, we are probably still turning over prisoners to the Egyptian intelligence services for torture interrogation. We’ve been tight with them for years. You can’t swing a dead cat on US Army training bases (Knox, Benning, etc) without hitting an Egyptian officer.

    Feel free to comment on my pessimism, though. At least you’re decent about it.

  27. 27.

    WyldPirate

    February 11, 2011 at 5:50 pm

    @Turbulence:

    Nice, dickhead. Perhaps you may be the real loser if you have nothing better to add than this.

    ETA–BTW, where did you come up with the name? My guess would be sitting in the bathtub watching the bubbles from your flatulence.

  28. 28.

    PeakVT

    February 11, 2011 at 5:54 pm

    @Ash Can: The rest of forever. The factors that give AIPAC its power just aren’t there for Egypt. OTOH, every country has lobbyists in the US, and Egypt is not an exception.

  29. 29.

    El Cid

    February 11, 2011 at 5:56 pm

    My opinion is that Israeli militarist & expansionist policymakers (which means everyone in the government) will continue to directly or ‘indirectly’ (via settlers) continue to take every bit of Jerusalem and the West Bank they can which they might want, every bit of arable land, and so on.

    And the Palestinians there will continue to be walled off, separated, stopped at checkpoints every 2 feet, and pretty much shut up in a broken up semi-territory.

    Gaza, unless some Egyptian policy changes, will stay locked up and maybe occasionally get blowed up again.

    At some point, Israel will have acquired all it wants from the West Bank, and the Palestinians as isolated as possible, then it will be time to make a deal for Palestinian “statehood”, in a miserable joke of a state and no control of airspace or borders, and maybe not even control of some roadway sections within the West Bank.

    On the plus side, maybe when the Palestinians get their pseudo-state, the other Arab and Muslim governments can stop pretending to care about them.

    Of course, I’m not an optimist.

  30. 30.

    Fuck U II: The Duckening

    February 11, 2011 at 5:57 pm

    I’d say that WP’s pessimism is quite warranted. Anyone who isn’t pessimistic is a goddamned fool or totally ignorant of the region’s history (and no, news doesn’t count).

  31. 31.

    srv

    February 11, 2011 at 6:02 pm

    @El Cid: I’d say that was an optimistic commentary myself.

  32. 32.

    Fuck U II: The Duckening

    February 11, 2011 at 6:04 pm

    I’m also gonna pour myself a cup of El Cid’s pessimism, too.

  33. 33.

    Fuck U II: The Duckening

    February 11, 2011 at 6:07 pm

    srv: Actually, El Cid sounds like he’s reading from official Israeli state documents.

  34. 34.

    jl

    February 11, 2011 at 6:07 pm

    The proposal for election is, what less than an year, or a year and a half away?

    The last coup was against a monarchy, right?

    The public has been through 53 years of fake military backed sham democracy. If the public interest and wariness can stay, the military will have to be more careful, or creative, or maybe actually do what they say they will do now.

    So, sure, people should be realistic. But i don’t think cynical expectations of a replay of 1952 (or was it 53,or 4?) are called for.

  35. 35.

    Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther

    February 11, 2011 at 6:09 pm

    I agree. What else can I possibly add? I, too, have hopes and fears — a great many of them — but I don’t think that the hope that this will help lead Israel to actually make changes and work toward peace is unfounded.

    But I wrote today about how on today, of all days, it behooves us to share and honor the joy of the Egyptians. They are the story today, and they deserve it. Today is not the day to spend too much time worrying about my end of the pond.

    http://bit.ly/fqTVnC

  36. 36.

    danimal

    February 11, 2011 at 6:11 pm

    Good post.

    I fantasize that Bibi called Obama in a panic sometime in the past two weeks and Obama replied with a coolly delivered “shove it, asshole.” Israel can use a little humility in its policy direction these days.

  37. 37.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 11, 2011 at 6:37 pm

    @Fuck U II: The Duckening: Skepticism or caution are, I think, the better watchwords.

  38. 38.

    Fuck U II: The Duckening

    February 11, 2011 at 6:45 pm

    OO I know you aren’t a goddamned fool, so don’t talk like one. Pessimism captures the idea exactly.

  39. 39.

    AhabTRuler

    February 11, 2011 at 6:47 pm

    @danimal:

    I fantasize that Bibi called Obama in a panic sometime in the past two weeks and Obama replied with a coolly delivered “shove it, asshole.”

    Hmm. Probably not.

  40. 40.

    El Cid

    February 11, 2011 at 6:57 pm

    @Fuck U II: The Duckening: ?

  41. 41.

    Omnes Omnibus

    February 11, 2011 at 7:00 pm

    @Fuck U II: The Duckening: Well, thank you for that. Still, based on the history of the region, I have low expectations for this, but I am very much a “where there is life there is hope” guy. If that makes me a goddamned fool in your eyes, then I have to live with it.

  42. 42.

    Tim I

    February 11, 2011 at 8:58 pm

    @JAHILL10:

    Israel is hardly a democracy. If it were the Palestinians would not have suffered the despicable genocide being perpetrated against them.

    Their rights would be respected and their votes would be counted.

    I fault the Palestinians leadership for its feckless rule over the past 40 years, but nothing they’ve done approaches the rape of Palestine and Palestinians by the Israelis.

  43. 43.

    Little Dreamer

    February 12, 2011 at 2:33 am

    I’d really like to think you’re correct, but, see… there was this book written with all sorts of nasty prophecies about the offspring of two of Abraham’s sons (Ishmael and Isaac) and nothing in the here and now is ever going to change that hostility and animosity. Dream on!

  44. 44.

    matoko_chan

    February 12, 2011 at 4:13 am

    @El Cid: one point where you are WRONG is that Gaza will stay “locked up”. I betcha the border is going porous right NAOW. the MB doesnt recognize Israel, and considers the Blockade illegal….and the powerless hyperpower is not going to be able to threaten to cut off aid unless Egypt takes a knee, like that fucking WEC retard George Bush did over Hamas.
    I think you’re wrong about the rest of it too.
    Most egyptians just fucking hate Israel and who could blame them? Every Egyptian family has lost loved ones to wars with Israel.

    For three decades, Mubarak has maintained a steadfast alliance with the United States (lubricated by about $1.5 billion in annual aid) and presided over a cold-but-durable peace with Israel. Yet, Egyptian public opinion is overwhelmingly hostile toward both countries. In Pew’s 2010 global survey, just 17 percent of Egyptians expressed a favorable view of the United States; that tied with Pakistan and Turkey for the lowest rating the U.S. received in any of the 21 countries tested. Nearly three-fourths of Egyptians said they opposed U.S. antiterrorism efforts, and four-fifths wanted the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan.
    Egyptian attitudes toward Israel are even chillier, despite the landmark 1979 peace treaty. In a 2007 Pew survey, a stunning 80 percent of Egyptians said that the needs of the Palestinian people could never be met as long as Israel exists; just 18 percent said that the two societies could coexist fairly. That was far more pessimistic than the results in Turkey and Lebanon—and essentially no different than the attitude among the Palestinians themselves. “Of all the countries in the Middle East,” Walker says, “the population of Egypt is the most hostile to Israel.”

    why are you softpedalling this shit, el Campeador? are you a fifth columnist for the pre-tribs?

    @ Levenson.

    a genuinely democratic Egypt

    now just wtf would that look like? there will be no freedom of speech or freedom or religion in an islamic nation. Egypt is 90% muslim.
    Freedom of speech is incompatible with shariah law, because it means proselytization. 84% of egyptians favor the death penalty for apostasy.
    How can Egypt ever conform to western ideals of judeochristian democracy?

  45. 45.

    matoko_chan

    February 12, 2011 at 4:16 am

    sourced.

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