More Than Six in Ten Disapprove of Cutting Off Funding As Way To Stop Health Reform.
Most Americans (62%) disapprove of cutting off funding as a way to stop some or all of the health reform law from being put into place.
33% say they think cutting off funding is legit.
I’ll first admit I don’t trust issue polling, generally. I believe people answer these questions according to what they think they’re supposed to say. For example, responsible “good” people are supposed to say they care deeply about the deficit or government spending but follow-up questions reveal that while they care, they just don’t want to do anything about it, not if they have to pay extra or sacrifice services that benefit them personally in any manner.
I worry that advocates who rely on issue polling as rock-solid run the risk of convincing themselves they’re in a majority, when they may not be. I do agree an issue poll can be handy to have when promoting policy or a viewpoint, because media love polls so much, and I don’t have any objection to advocates relying on them for that purpose.
That said, this is a well-phrased question, because cutting off funding for “health reform law” is a specific action that House Republicans are heavily promoting, and the question is offered in plain, unbiased language.
Villago Delenda Est
Don’t cut you!
Don’t cut me!
Cut that black guy behind a tree!
There, can we move on now?
Paul W.
33% sounds about right, you get the 25-27% of frothing wingnuts combined with another 10% or so of under-informed people who don’t even understand the question correctly.
Kay
@Paul W.:
I was wondering if they object to the method. If they see cutting off funding as somehow an end-run.
I’m probably giving them too much credit.
General Stuck
Typical intellectual lazy American voter, and imo, the prime root of most of our problems. Not only about issues, but about a healthy functioning democracy, that too many think is guaranteed to run smooth for eternity.
Nearly every results of polls is fully dependent on how the question is asked about issues. If the asker does not include potential consequences of a particular issue action, the default position is to reward GOP talking points, that voters also by default prefer. Mostly because wingnuts are white like them, and know the magic words to please these rubes.
In this particular poll on health care, even the dimmest voter can sense disaster of not funding the law, but really not to the fullest extent of that disaster, or the results would have been 100 percent opposed. But you can never expect the 28 percenters to answer in any other way than death to liberals, whatever the issue, and whatever the consequences of smiting the policies of their eternal enemy.
This is a center left country on issues, and a center right country on electoral politics. The tribal instinct is that strong in a society that has not experienced serious enough pain, yet, from GOP governance. Obama kept us out of the abyss for economics, and generally, the public thinks it was republicans pointing out his death panels that is responsible and spending from a bill that was actually pre paid for. So we go merrily on, clueless and lazy, and believing crazy people still have the remedy to it all.
A Commenter at Balloon Juice (formerlyThe Grand Panjandrum)
68% of all people who cite polls don’t really understand what the polls actually mean in any significant way. How many people even know how to look at the cross tabs to gain some insight? (OK maybe I made up the 68%)
Omnes Omnibus
@A Commenter at Balloon Juice (formerlyThe Grand Panjandrum): 92% of statistics are made up on the spot; only 37% of the population know that.
cleek
the only polls that matter are taken the first Tuesday in November, even-numbered years only. every other poll is moot.
RossInDetroit
I distrust all polling. Years ago while analyzing client satisfaction data for a customer service call center I discovered that the factor most strongly correlated to the respondent’s level of happiness was the brand of car they drove. Everything else was noise. And these were expensive, scrupulously conducted polls.
Pretty much put me off the whole business.
Emily L. Hauser/ellaesther
As a social “scientist” by training, I approve of this message, caveats and all.
As is true for so much in life: It’s almost always more about the questions, than the answers.
Omnes Omnibus
@RossInDetroit: Which car brands signaled satisfaction and which did not? Inquiring minds want to know.
Kay
@General Stuck:
I just think you have to be careful. The polls that came out in the renew the Bush tax cuts debate were a little suspect, to me.
“Should we raise taxes on people other than you?”
Unsurprisingly, they all said “yes!”
Chris
@Villago Delenda Est:
Nailed it.
One of the most blatant instances being the uproar over the TSA’s new procedures last Thanksgiving, when the majority opinion wasn’t “stop groping people” but “stop groping ME, go and grope THESE people.”
geg6
I continuously have conversations with people IRL that end up like this poll. They are all against the ACA, but when you enumerate the things in the bill, they are all for them. They say they don’t want government-run health care, but when it’s explained that it’s really private insurance provided through an exchange that the government sets up, they are fine with it. They say that people without insurance can just go to the local ER. But when you ask them how long it currently takes to get seen in the ER and that it’s often because of people there who would actually be going to the doctor if they had insurance, they want them to have that ability. And they also need help figuring out that all that medical help from the ER costs ALL of us and more than providing preventive care costs, but when they get there, they are all for lowering costs this way. And when you tell them the number of Americans who can’t get health insurance (for whatever reason), they are appalled and want them covered.
Americans are, by and large, stupid and lazy. But they are mostly kindhearted and empathetic when given the facts. It’s a sad state of affairs, but people like us just have to keep getting the facts out there to them. And most will want to do the right thing.
Linda Featheringill
If most of the people in the US are against something, the Republicans will support it. And get reelected anyway.
Cynicism. Depression. Despair. Realization that “government of the people” is not based on reality.
RossInDetroit
@Omnes Omnibus:
In order of highest to lowest, rank all GM brands from around 2000 by cost. Caddy drivers were happiest with the person they spoke to on the phone, while Chevy drivers didn’t like their phone interactions. We hashed this data every possible way and that’s the correlation that always stood out of every set: the more you paid for your vehicle the higher you rated the customer service reps.
And yes, I did find a way to exploit this once I discovered it.
agrippa
I do not trust polls very much; it depends so much upon how the question is posed.
artem1s
I might believe a particular political tactic is ‘legit’ (technically legal) but that does not mean I think it is good policy or that it will solve the underlying problem.
For instance, do social conservatives have the right to petition the courts and legislature to pass bans on all forms of abortion. Sure. Do I think that will meet their end goal of reducing or eliminating abortion? No.
the problem with polling is it can’t possibly reflect people’s thinking about complex solutions to interconnected problems. the problem with wingnuts and tea partiers (and probably conservatives in general) is they also can’t comprehend complex solutions or interconnected problems. they see poll results and believe that it reflects the actual thinking of the majority. they see polling (and research) not as a way to find out about the complexities but as a way TO WIN THE ISSUE! its vital to remember that some people will always view polls as the equivalent of voting for the home coming queen.
Short Bus Bully
27%, the only thing you need to know about American politics.
http://kfmonkey.blogspot.com/2005/10/lunch-discussions-145-crazification.html
Chris
@General Stuck:
I think that’s pretty accurate. People like Republicans because they make them feel good; eventually vote for Democrats because Republican politics drove them into the ditch; but then vote Republicans back in because the Democrats make them feel too uncomfortable. (Reagan/1980 – Clinton/1992 – Gingrich’s Congress-1994, Bush/2000 – Obama/2008 – Boehner’s Congress/2010).
Southern Beale
In other news: Andrew Breitbart has been served. Literally.
Here’s hoping Sherrod gets a huge settlement.
Kay
@geg6:
This isn’t verifiable,it’s my opinion, but I think media rely on polling. If something “polls well” they present it more favorably. That would make sense to me, because they’re wanting to be on the “right” side, for selling their own product (media).
Sarah Palin is the exception to this rule, because she’s unpopular, and has been for years, yet they continue to promote her.
Chris
@geg6:
Yeah, me too. One of my best friends had an argument with his conservative girlfriend a couple years ago that personified what you just said.
Girlfriend: “I agree that we needed a stimulus, but not that stimulus.”
Friend: “Well, that’s fair enough, but what would you have wanted?”
Girlfriend: [proceeds to outline almost the entire Obama stimulus package]
Friend: [long silence] “… that was “that” stimulus.”
Think she changed her mind about the stimulus after that conversation? Nope. She’s capable of thinking her way to liberal conclusions, but the minute she finds out that they’re liberal conclusions, her brain just hits RESET. How they rationalize it, I don’t know, but it’s truly impressive to behold.
Kryptik
@Chris:
This is what happens when the country votes on Hippie Punching more than on what it actually needs.
@Chris:
See above.
Policies don’t matter anymore. Labels do. Like it’s been said before, if Democrats came out and announced a cure for cancer, Republicans would suddenly wonder why Dems are so anti-Cancer, and suddenly the public would become pro-Cancer so quickly, you’d think they just drank radioactive waste like Kool-Aid.
Zifnab
Don’t worry too much. Advocates only rely on issue polling as rock-solid when it confirms they are in the majority.
People want what they want. Food, clothing, shelter, entertainment, and the opportunity to improve their current lot in life. You don’t need a poll to tell you that.
@Linda Featheringill:
Republicans lost in landslides during ’06 and ’08. They had a comeback in ’10, but blew a chance at the Senate with candidates that were so crazy they couldn’t even win in a wave year with billions of corporate dollars at their backs.
And, much as Kerry learned in ’04, you can’t win elections by not being somebody. At some point, you have to offer a positive agenda. Republicans ran on jobs and deficit reduction in ’10. Democrats dithered and hedged and refused to act when they had the opportunity. That doesn’t make Republicans invincible. It just makes Democrats bad campaigners.
General Stuck
Think about it. In a sane country, would there even need to be a poll question on funding a law produced by a president and party that have long since promised such a law, and was explicit for that intent as the number one campaign promise priority for an Obama presidency?
edit – while opposing such a law was well within the GOP minority right, but after passage, not funding it should really be considered seditious imo. but isn’t cause goopers are proposing it.
Kryptik
@Zifnab:
I’m not sure how much I agree with this. The ’10 Republican wins seem precisely because they campaigned about NOT being something: Democrats. They successfully painted Dems as the source of every ill and won by being the lesser evil, even when they never actually proposed anything concrete to assuage those ills.
The problem Dems have as far as campaigning is that they allow Republicans to codify what Dems stand for, either by not promoting their own beliefs, or by either evading (or in worse cases, actively agreeing with) said Republican campaigns of ‘What Dems stand for’.
Dems in ’06 and ’08 won in much the same way, but only because Republicans basically hung themselves with their own rope. They can’t do that anymore, and waiting for Republicans to screw up enough to do that again is virtual suicide now.
This comes back to the same problem I’ve been echoing: The policies don’t matter. Labels do. Popular support measures instantly become liabilities as soon as someone notes that a Democrat or a Liberal supports it, because Republicans have tainted the brands so much, they can win simply by being ‘Not Democrats’.
NonyNony
@RossInDetroit:
I don’t get it – the polls you’re talking about apparently included useful data about car owners and their satisfaction rates, so why does it put you off polling? Or do you mean poll analysis (which I agree seems to be mostly crap – especially these days where you have polling houses that seem to cater specifically to driving the narrative in particular partisan directions).
Ash Can
@Southern Beale: Good for her. That’s great news. It’s so refreshing to see a little justice amid all the muck. If Breitbart all of a sudden starts crying poor on his blog and begging his readers to send donations or else, I’ll take it as a sign that the proceedings aren’t going well for him.
RossInDetroit
@NonyNony:
We were polling about client’s satisfaction with customer service phone calls. All of the car brands used the same customer service system. The satisfaction results should not have revealed any influence of car brand on the happiness with a phone interaction. The results revealed a strong bias in the results, where some car owners reported higher satisfaction with the phone service. Like people living on the sunny side of the street being more pleased with their trash collection. It’s an irrelevant parameter that skewed results.
That’s my point about polling. Unless you control for every variable, including many you wouldn’t think would have any effect, you can’t be sure that the responses fairly represent respondents’ attitudes.
And once you do control for all of those variables your poll is so narrow that the results don’t have wide applicability.
Southern Beale
@Ash Can:
I’m sure whomever funds his smear operation now will be happy to pony up for the Andrew Breitbart Legal Defense Fund.
Liberals need to do more of this. Every RW smear should be challenged in court. ACORN should have sued over that video too.
Poopyman
@Short Bus Bully: I never tire of revisiting that post. And in light of the past couple of weeks, here’s an edited paragraph:
So Bush was exactly 180 degrees off again!
Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)
@Kay: Framing those questions to maximally eliminate bias is a hell of an art for sure. I love posts like this that get into the rhetoric on a granular level.
ETA O, and I think you are spot on with people saying what they think they’re supposed to say.
kay
@Zifnab:
I meant that a little differently. I think Kos does this well, so I’ll use him.
He’ll take a poll on immigration (for example) and use it to “prove” that his view on immigration is a majority view, so politically advantageous. But he’s not convincing himself that “everyone agrees with me!”. He’s trying to reach politicians. He’s lobbying.
So, I approve of using issue polls as a tool of advocacy, because I generally advocates should use whatever they have.
But he isn’t going to convince me, necessarily:)
General Stuck
BTW Kay
Excellent post!!
DPirate
I’m not sure it is a good question. As asked, it has absolutely nothing to do with health care reform. It is asking about procedure. Basically, people will read this and say “No, I do not think politicians should be able to backdoor stuff”. Or, “No, they shouldn’t cheat.”
Actually, I think it is a terrible question. It is loaded by the phrase “Health Care Reform”, which will set the tone for many people. As well, I hope I’m wrong but I think many people will miss misunderstand the whole “pretend we never mentioned HCR when answering this” part.
Triassic Sands
A fairly worded question would have asked if people want to cut off funding to JOB KILLING Health Care Reform. The only fair wording is that which is identical to the framing given to issues and legislation by the Republican Party.
The Democrats named the legislation, clumsily, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which doesn’t have a catchy acronym like MY FREE LUNCH or MONEY IN MY POCKET. Patient Protection sounds fine, as does Affordable Care, but together they don’t “inform” the public in the way the USA PATRIOT Act did. Surely, given the time and attention it deserved, the Democrats could have come up with a name for the legislation whose acronym, APPLE PIE, would have been unassailable.
Americans have shown repeatedly that unless the Republicans do the thinking for them, the task of figuring out what is really going on is just too damn hard. Of course I want to cut/slash/crush/smash JOB KILLING laws, no matter what they are about or do.
Triassic Sands
More accurately, it is a left of center country on social programs and entitlements and a radical right wing country on taxes.
Nick
@kay:
when you take a kos poll that shows “immigration reform” is popular, and you take another showing Arizona’s driving-while-Mexican law is popular, what message does that send politicians?