I don’t know what to make of this. We’ve been warned for the last few years about inflation, in fact were told we couldn’t do anything to stimulate job creation because of inflation concerns, and yet now it appears it is happening anyway:
A package of Oscar Mayer cold cuts. A pair of Nine West boots. A Whirlpool washing machine.
By the fall, people will most likely be paying more for each of them, as rising prices hit most consumer goods, say retailers, food companies and manufacturers of consumer products.
Cotton prices are near their highest level in more than a decade, after adjusting for inflation, and leather and polyester costs are jumping as well. Copper recently hit its highest level in about 40 years, and iron ore, used for steel, is fetching extremely high prices. Prices for corn, sugar, wheat, beef, pork and coffee are soaring. Labor overseas is becoming more expensive, meanwhile, and so are the utility bills to keep a factory running.
“There are cost pressures from virtually everywhere,” said Wesley R. Card, the chief executive of the Jones Group, whose brands include Nine West and Anne Klein. After trying to keep retail prices flat or even lower during the recession, Jones says prices for its brands will climb 15 to 20 percent by autumn.
I have to admit- when I read the price of polyester was going up, my first thought was “So it’s not all bad news…”
But yeah- inflation, plus a shitty job market with no upward pressure on wages means that the boning of what is left of the American middle class will continue in earnest. But don’t worry, we’re busy getting rid of your pension and social security…
Corey
This isn’t really “inflation” but rising commodity prices. Yeah, at the end of the day, prices are higher – so the difference is academic. But I wouldn’t blame this on monetary policy.
Downpuppy
This is the front edge of the post-peak era.
Soylent Green, coming soon to a WalMart near you!
John W.
That’s not inflation – inflation is a monetary issue. This is just raw materials getting more expensive due to more competition for a finite amount of them.
Yglesias had a good (short) post on this I think over the weekend.
Suffern ACE
@Corey: Are commodity prices rising because of normal supply/demand or for some other reason?
Mary
Cotton farming is horrible for the environment anyway.
toujoursdan
@Downpuppy:
This. Inflation is going to become the new normal. We are post peak on many commodities and industrial resources, not the least of which is oil which lubricates everything. I’ll bet there isn’t 3 things in your home that aren’t made by or with oil, and that includes everything in the refrigerator.
Post peak resources + increasing competition = inflation and the beginning of the end of modern capitalism.
RossInDetroit
Broad consumer price inflation usually goes along with wage inflation but there’s none of that to be seen.
Double screwed.
Corey
@Suffern ACE: I think the consensus is, the former.
If it were real “core inflation” we’d see a corresponding rise in business investment, which I don’t think is happening.
Dave
Yeah…this isn’t inflation per se. The most recent CPI data available on line (for 2010) shows the 12-month inflation trend for food at just 1.5% and all items less food and energy at .8% That’s hardly an inflationary trend.
PurpleGirl
Polyester = poly ester (many strands) = hydrocarbon compounds, aka plastics, resins, etc. A product of oil and a bunch of other stuff mixed into the oil.
It isn’t only bad fibers; in fact, I’ve bought polyester fabric that could rival silk in feel and price. But almost any container today is a polyester compound of some sort, i.e., acrylinitrile bottles, frozen food packages, your computer’s case, yarn, etc.
Tractarian
John, see this David Leonhardt post for a chart that really says it all about inflation. Upshot: inflation is historically low, even counting the last year or so of rising commodity prices. (Edit: that chart actually doesn’t include food or oil, which are volatile)
And read Krugman here for his explanation on how rising commodity prices now DO NOT necessarily mean inflation in the future.
Violet
Learn to grow your own food. Encourage community gardens on empty lots. Even if you’ve only got a patio or balcony you can grow food in pots. I know this isn’t a solution to the larger problem of inflation, but people need to eat and growing food can fill a gap.
beltane
In every other country, this would (and will) trigger political unrest. Here it will just trigger quiet despair. A consumer society that no longer has the means to consume will be a sad spectacle indeed.
The Moar You Know
@RossInDetroit: Turns out that’s not really the case.
It was, back in the day, but post WWII inflationary crises just have not seen the attendant rise in wages that the classic inflation scenario should bring.
The inflation itself? Totally expected, and that’s why I moved into commodities a while back. We did this post-Vietnam; we had a war to pay off and the way to do that is to pay the debt with dollars that were worth less than when you borrowed them. It’s a shitty trick to play on your creditors, but the United States keeps getting away with it time and time again.
Now we’ve got two wars to pay off, so say hello to the 1970s economy again!
WyldPirate
I guess this means that US cotton farmers no longer need their 3BN/year in subsidies/price supports any longer.
Dave
I’d also point out that talking up inflation is a GOP favorite to validate their insane budget proposals. So I wouldn’t be surprised if Card (who supported McCain in 08 and has donated money in the past to Demint) is carrying some water here.
Nobody Important
The only way out of this crisis is for regular Americans to take pay and benefit cuts. Then they’ll be able to afford… uh.. hmm
The Raven
Krugman’s already on it: commodity prices aren’t most of selling prices. Oil is an important exception and climate change seems to be affecting agriculture, and cotton is an agricultural product. But some prices are highly variable and some are “sticky,” and this could just be harrumping on Card’s part.
Michael
Our current inflation is rooted in the Texas Cretard tax – basically, the inheritor oilboys are lining their pockets with our cash so they can impose their brilliant viewpoints of creationism, fundamentalism, pro-oligarchic corruption and the like on the country via the opinion they bought in Citizens United. Given the level of deflation they’d wreaked on the economy, fuel commodity prices should be low enough for gasoline to basically run a total of about a buck ninety a gallon with taxes.
http://www.eisenhowermemorial.org/presidential-papers/first-term/documents/1147.cfm
Sadly, that commie Eisenhower was wrong – they’re no longer negligible. They funded more of their likeminded folks via the Tea Party.
Ann B. Nonymous
This isn’t inflation. This is cost pressure from global supply and demand. The article should make that point, but it in fact goes out of its way to confuse the issue, starting in the eighth paragraph. It’s bad economic journalism, but that’s almost redundant.
Who does this confusion help? People who want a deflationary policy. Who has traditionally wanted a deflationary policy? People who make their living from other people’s debt payments. I’ve heard that student loan debt now outnumbers credit card debt in the United States.
It’s an article of faith among the far right that we’re very close to an episode of hyperinflation. The last time that happened here was 1865, among the far right secessionists.
David Fud
@Suffern ACE: Supply and demand due to new high levels of demand in the developing world, like China, India, Africa, etc., etc., etc. So, the prices are reflecting supply constrictions because of bad weather in the case of wheat and other crops and larger demand in metals, coal, etc.
A recipe for stag-flation-like conditions it seems to me.
4tehlulz
There is only one path. We need to peg the dollar to a strong and stable currency, like the yuan.
jibeaux
I already look for everything I need in consignment shops and craigslist. Okay, not food. But other stuff. If you are keeping an eye out for something but are not in a particular hurry, set up a craigslist search for it in google reader. Higher consumer prices, whatever the cause, is a serious squeeze for the middle class, and the only practical thing you can do about it is to try to consume less & smarter, which honestly is not a terrible thing for this country. I also take a stab at gardening and make my own laundry detergent. A goal that I have is to make better use of the bulk bins at places like Whole Foods. An expensive place if you’re buying produce, but not if you’re buying dried beans, grains, spices, etc.
Edoc
Please don’t feed the inflation trolls. Not only are they wrong, but they’re all right-wing Rick Santelli types who are desperately frothing-on about how Obama = Jimmy Carter.
Zifnab
I don’t understand why everyone keeps insisting the Republicans are winning the debate. They flooded the airwaves with money, ran their best and brightest in a wave election year, and they picked up a bunch of blue dog seats in red states. But they failed in the Senate, they failed in California, and the crew they elected is bucking the reigns of the party leadership (as exemplified by all those failed House votes).
I honestly don’t see sunny skies for the GOP in the immediate future.
Crashman
@jibeaux: How do you set up a craigslist search in google reader? This sounds like a useful skill to have.
jharp
Saying you’re gonna have to raise prices to protect profits does not translate into consumers will pay higher prices.
They might or might not.
Herbal Infusion Bagger
This is drivel, arguing by anecdute. CPI is at 1.5%. There are pressures on commodity prices, as noted above, but economy wide inflation? I wish. Then we’d be hitting capacity shortages, and there’d be more hiring. Plus, we need inflation to help people by eroding the real value of their debt.
I was in Australia a few weeks ago, and their economy is booming, to the point they’re talking about labor shortages. This is because they’re essentially a satellite economy of China, and iron ore and coal are very high right now.
There’s constraints on the worldwide capacity of some commodities, but for the US economy as a whole? Nope, more’s the pity.
Jim Pharo
John, bear in mind that this is a nation that has historically depended on slavery itself or slave-like conditions to support the lifestyles of the rest. Why would that suddenly be changing?
A Commenter at Balloon Juice (formerlyThe Grand Panjandrum)
Anyone know what President McCain has to say about all of this? Maybe Bob Schieffer can get him on his show this Sunday to clear all this up.
Nate
Here’s your money quote from later in the article…
It’s all about protecting dividends. Commodity prices may well be going up some, but in the end, when you have a contractual obligation to make a bigger profit every year for shareholders, eventually that’s going to conflict with what people can afford.
MonkeyBoy
In reading Nixonland I recall how Nixon was harping about coming inflation before the 68 election when there was no indication of this possibility. Then low and behold, after Nixon was elected inflation started to increase.
Who benefits from inflation? – savvy financial experts who can keep ahead of it while inflation drains the assets of everybody else.
kindness
This morning on NPR, Steve Innskeep interviewed the Director of Management & Budget and repeatedly questioned him as to why President Obama’s budget proposal didn’t ‘slash’ Social Security. Mr Lew patiently explained to dimbulb Steve that Social Security doesn’t create deficits with our budget, it has a large surplus stashed away in US government bonds. Yet 3 times Steve raged about why Social Security isn’t being gutted to the Teabaggers/Republicans liking.
I know it’s my spited nose being bitten from my face but I am almost ready for the government to completely drop PBS/NPR public financing (which I really do not support dropping). If NPR is going to continue to be Fox lite, I have no use for it. I certainly have switched stations much more than I ever used to. Voting with my fingertips.
jibeaux
@Crashman:
It’s so easy even *I* can do it. Here’s how I do it. In one tab, I run the craigslist search that I want. In another tab, I open my gmail and then go to reader. In the upper left corner of the reader is a button saying “add a subscription”. Click on that and you can cut and paste the url from the craigslist search from your other tab. New results from that search will then show up in your google reader as they come up. Wa-la!
AliceBlue
Anybody remember “stagflation” from the 70’s? This sounds like it.
Hunter Gathers
Between the blacks, mexicans, unions, HCR, GOP budget proposals, WH budget proposals, abortion, financial reform, inflation, debt, IslamoMarxists, teabaggers, taxes, climate change, the hoax known as climate change, 60’s radicals, the animated corpse of Ronald Reagan, the Federal Reserve, Keith Olbermann, the gays and Sarah Palin ®, the country isn’t going to just collapse, a rip in the space/time continuum is going to swallow the entire planet.
The daily declarations of doom from the left, right and center are really starting to bore the shit out of me.
Maude
@Nate:
You win the prize.
@PurpleGirl:
My computer case is made outta wood.
About $3 to $4 cotton is used in jeans. Quite a mark up when you go to buy a pair in a store.
Major crops are bad for the environment, not just cotton. The dead zone in the Gulf is an example. I have no answers ofn how to fix this.
RossInDetroit
@kindness:
My breaking point with NPR came during a story on Obama’s plan to draw down troops in Afghanistan. At the end of the piece the reporter stated that Bush should get credit for his draw down of troops as well, and that nobody was talking about that.
Well, let’s talk about the fact that Bush sent them all there in the first place. No more donations for you, NPR.
Crashman
@jibeaux: Thanks!
liberal
@Ann B. Nonymous:
The reason they think that way is because they don’t have any understanding of the money supply and the difference between what the Fed creates and the looser definitions of money.
It’s amusing to listen to.
PurpleGirl
@Maude: My computer case is made outta wood.
That’s cool. Is it a custom made computer and case, if I may ask?
srv
Cotton went up last year. American farmers sold their futures to the Chinese cheap and were kicking themselves all year. India had floods, Russia had draughts.
liberal
@toujoursdan:
My guess would be that we burn much more oil for fuel (at least two orders of magnitude more) than we use as lubricants or as the basis for plastics etc. So the latter could be dealt with pretty easily by e.g. growing crops or whatever. The energy supply is a bigger issue.
Zifnab
@Nate:
Why sell 10 shirts for $9 when you can sell one shirt for $100? I’m curious to know what the margins on textiles are anyway. When I’m paying $50 for a shirt that cost $.50 to make in some third world sweetshop, are you really going to tell me a 10% uptick in fabric prices will raise the price for the retail shopper?
catclub
@Maude: “I have no answers ofn how to fix this.”
I have lots of answers, they just aren’t very popular.
I think the posters writing that “this isn’t inflation, it is just commodity price increases,” are wrong. It is inflation – increases in general prices. That said, I think that when OVERALL inflation is 1.5% then there is effectively very low inflation. If housing costs and house prices ( which are a big part of overall costs) are falling, that cancels out many other things.
Like Yglesias says, if you think inflation is about to come roaring back, buy TIPS — inflation adjusted bonds. If you are right you will make a fortune.
The bond market is still saying that it ain’t gonna happen.
Judas Escargot
Welcome to the Pitcher Plant economy.
I expect this to happen every time the economy starts to climb out of the hole we’re in: The commodities (driven by oil) will rise and push us right back down. Just like a bee in a pitcher plant.
This would actually be an excellent time to focus on infrastructure, education and alt-energy, so we’ll be ready for whatever’s on the other side of this crisis.
The wingnuts (who smell their best chance at dismantling… well, everything) are of course going to make this very difficult.
catclub
@liberal: It is also only an article of faith when there is a democrat in the white house.
Maude
PurpleGirl
Sorry, I was joking, but you used to be able to get cases made out of wood. That was for home built and very expensive. I think there only a few of them.
I wonder if a type of wood would be better than plastic. Plastic certainly keeps heat inside the case.
singfoom
@kindness: @RossInDetroit:
While I am disappointed with NPR in many cases, I still think it’s one of the best sources of news here in the US. Innskeep and Dionne can be pretty damn horrible, but I’ll keep supporting my local station.
Individual shows by the stations are usually more interesting than the national organization, ala Left,Right & Center, On The Media, This American Life, Intelligence Squared, etc….
It’s saddening that NPR buys the conventional wisdom when it comes to national issues so much though. I cringe every time I hear EJ Dionne speak as if he knows something….
Downpuppy
@liberal: One of the biggest uses of oil is fertilizer. Growing crops, post green revolution, is an exercise in converting oil to food, on an ever shrinking amount of land & fresh water.
Citizen_X
@liberal:
We’re pretty much maxed out for arable land and fresh water already, just for growing crops for food and textiles.
Given that the use of plastics dramatically lowers the mass of products, and thus their transportation costs (and, presently, oil usage and carbon emissions) I would argue exactly the opposite: we need to develop non-fossil fuel energy sources, so we can save the oil for plastic feedstock (as well as for all the other reasons).
Marc McKenzie
@Michael: And let’s not forget–we’re currently in the economic s**tter thanks to that great Texan who stole the 2000 election and proceeded to bend the economy (hell, the country for that matter) over the rail and give it the business.
But, you know, back then, we were told that “there was no difference!” between the parties.
The economic mess must be laid at the feet of the GOP. Sure, I wish that Obama could do more, but the resources he has are slim, and he has to deal with the insane GOP-clown posse that is currently in charge of the House and will gum up the works in the Senate.
And let’s not even get started on the Right-wing Noise Machine that keeps on putting out nonsense like beets through a baby’s backside….
Maude
@catclub:
I went to the food store yesterday. Prices were up. I don’t care what they call it, prices are higher.
Housing prices went up into the atmosphere. I don’t think that the prices are okay now. Not that many people can afford house. The wages (sigh) have not kept up since the 1970’s.
This whole merger/aquisition, stock price not the same as the value of a company craze has been going on since the 1980’s.
Add offshoring and we now have a real mess on our hands. And add the Republicans and it’s terrible.
Zifnab
@Citizen_X:
True. But post-production waste is still quite high. We also produce a lot of low-efficiency foods, like beef, that use far more arable land per pound of food product than vegetarian counterparts.
We use a lot, but we also waste a lot. Controlling our waste is going to get a big economic incentive in a decade or two.
toujoursdan
@liberal:
But as we saw with the ethanol fiasco, using arable land to grow anything other than food (for a planet of 7 billion growing to 9-11 billion by 2050) leads to food shortages, food riots, political problems in developed nations and the toppling of governments in less developed nations.
So we could do it from a technological perspective, but there is only so much arable land and the demand for it to be used for food production instead of industrial production is growing, not shrinking.
Judas Escargot
@MonkeyBoy:
Who benefits from inflation? – savvy financial experts who can keep ahead of it while inflation drains the assets of everybody else.
Inflation is also an excellent excuse to raise interest rates. Which is how the investor class will complete their final harvest before moving on to their next host.
Oh. You didn’t really think the US middle class was going to be given a fair chance at paying off all that debt and returning back to normal, were you?
Nylund
This isn’t inflation. Its simple supply and demand affecting commodity markets. Even the article itself distinguishes between inflation and the observed rise in prices:
If it was inflation, then the solution would be for the Fed to raise interest rates and cut the money supply. Anyone think that higher mortgage payments, higher credit card rates, and banks making less loans to companies trying to expand will make these prices stabilize? If you don’tp, then you don’t think this is inflation. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and can be curtailed through monetary policy. This cannot be, thus, it is not inflation per se.
To sum up the difference. Inflation is when you have too much money chasing too few goods. A price increase from an increase in demand or decrease in supply (or both), is when you have too many people chasing too few goods.
So which is it? Too much money chasing too few goods? or too many people chasing too few goods? My vote is strongly on the latter. I vote that its a supply and demand issue (with speculators possibly mucking things up as wll), not an inflation issue.
Citizen_X
I would also point out that, in a world that is on the margins WRT food production, a little bit of climate change can cause severe problems.
As we’ve seen in the past year.
BD of MN
@Citizen_X:
well, there’s the 30% of corn production that’s currently going into ethanol…
Nylund
To explain it in another way: Inflation is an increase in the overall price level. Its true that this is difficult to properly calculate, that many different measures exist, and most have a bias towards understating inflation. If we’re seeing price increases in specific sectors, eg. food, commodities, but not the economy as a whole, then its evidence that we’re seeing a change in those particular markets (via shifts in their supply and/or demand) altering their relative prices. In short, inflation is when all prices go up and relative prices remain fairly constant. When prices for specific things go up relative to others, it just means those markets are going through changes.
This doesn’t make it any easier for people struggling to pay their grocery bills, but it does mean that its something that is probably outside of the ability of the monetary authority to fix.
Jon H
How much of the price rises are due to speculation on Goldman’s commodity indexes, rather than genuine scarcity?
kindness
@singfoom: Believe me I want to be there with ya. My local, KQED is really good but the National stuff is Fox lite. They suck. And they didn’t used to suck. During bush43, the Administration convinced them to fire their producers & program directors and hire bushbots, which they did and which they still have.
Nylund
@Judas Escargot:
If you have a fixed rate on your debt (like a fixed rate mortgage), then inflation benefits debtors by decreasing the real value of the payments they are making, and it hurts the lenders who see the real value of their income flow decrease.
This is why bankers tend to be inflation hawks. One could argue that the Fed shares this same concern because the Fed is owned and partially run by the banks themselves. If inflation really was good for the banking class, then you probably wouldn’t see nearly as many inflation hawk bankers.
If rates are adjustable and move one for one with the inflation rate, then there is no change in the real value of the debt repayment. This latter part relies a bit on the assumption that wages increase with inflation (nominal rate increases are offset by nominal wage increases, ie real wages stay constant).
That used to be a valid assumption, but not really so much anymore, so adjustable rates may indeed be detrimental, but for fixed rates, its still true that inflation benefits those in debt.
Judas Escargot
@Nylund:
In a normal situation, where fixed rate loans are widely available to the public, I agree. But we are not in a normal situation.
A lot of people are still stuck in ARMs and can’t refi into fixed mortgages because they are underwater. Lines of credit (like those for small businesses) also tend to be linked to variable indices.
Raise the rates, and even more people lose their homes (or walk away). More small businesses go under. Banks repossess and dispose of/write-off the harvested assets. The middle class shrinks further. Consumption goes down. The economy tanks again. This tanking is then blamed on Obama in 2012, and used as an excuse for even further austerity. And that’s when the real, final feast will begin.
Rinse, lather, repeat, until we’ve regressed to the Chinese hive-labor model, as planned.
But as long as the Eloi still get to blog about it, and the TED talks keep running, I guess it’ll all be a-ok.
David
It’s laughable that people think this is simply an effect of changes in supply and demand in commodities markets.
Where is this increased demand coming from? If it’s not increased demand, what has caused such a significant decrease in supply? It seems mighty convenient that it seems to be happening across the board for nearly every commodity traded.
This is the result of speculation, just like we saw in 2007 and 2008. But god forbid we regulate commodity speculation, we’ve got to keep government out of private business so private business can get the economy going again.
Chris
@David:
Mainly, from China.
The number of Chinese tourists in New Zealand this year has exploded, for instance. Lots more Chinese are well-off and can afford more Stuff. A few hundred million new middle-class Chinese are increasing demand faster than one hundred million no-longer-middle-class Americans can reduce it.
JRon
It always seemed to me that a lack of inflation makes purchasing things for your actual use, like houses and such, foolhardy. Salaries do tend to rise with inflation, and over time your possessions become worth more than you paid.
Inflation is a problem if you have a lot of cash in investments and in the bank. Then your possessions become worth less.
Isn’t this why the Republicans and the business press are always fretting about it? Ultimately, it’s all about self-interest, just like everything else.
cckids
@Violet:
Depends on where you live; here in the Desert Southwest, it takes tons of water & attention & still, lots of stuff just gives up & dies due to the suffocating overnight heat we have through the end of July-August. I’ve spent so much money trying to raise tomatoes I could live at Whole Foods. I surrender!!
chris
As other commenters have touched on… if wages aren’t also going up, it’s not inflation.
Pug
Saying you’re gonna have to raise prices to protect profits does not translate into consumers will pay higher prices.
Yeah, go ahead and raise the price of those Nine West boots 20%, dill weed. See how many you sell at those higher prices.
Prices are not set by the profit the seller “needs”. They are set by what consumers are willing to pay.
scarshapedstar
C’mon, John, you can’t invoke stagflation without giving this a Black Jimmy Carter tag.
El Cid
Whether or not this is the actual term known as “inflation” will mean zero in the national political and pundit discussions.
It will also mean zero to anyone I know, because they will call it “inflation” because they’re paying more for stuff, and I’m not going to waste the breath disagreeing.
At most all I’ll say is that the word “inflation” that you read about in the business section of the paper refers to a technical term, but people use the word to talk about a lot of stuff, including prices on things which may go up and then go down. Or utility prices.
I’ll be hearing on right wing radio and from coworkers and neighbors and relatives that, see, Obama has made us Zimbabwe, because we’re on the edge of hyperinflation and so on and so forth.
Downpuppy
And today, grain prices got hammered.
It’s not like we’re all going to starve next week. But with our entire economy, mythology & empire built around growth, slow shrinkage with an escalating series of commodity issues is going to get uglier every year.
toujoursdan
@David:
The demand is coming from China, India, the Middle East, etc.
(BTW, most of the 2008 price spike was NOT caused by speculation.)
Aaron Fown
#68 The desert southwest didn’t support much population at all before the post war boom. After peak everything, food, water and AC will become scarce at best in that area. In other words, it will become a deathtrap.
I would suggest moving. Michigan is cheap, has plenty of water, and you can garden. Please, don’t be offended, but I am concerned about how unsustainable most of the cities in the Southwest are.
RobW
Oh, it’ll matter a great deal what “inflation” actually means when it comes to addressing the problem of higher commodities prices. The preferred policy will be to reduce monetary inflation from its current historic low to zero or less.
Once into deflation, net creditors (basically the financial sector and investor class) make out like the bandits they are and net debtors (pretty much everybody else including the US Treasury) gets fucked even harder than they currently are. Deflation would also increase the trade deficit by raising capital costs here and send more jobs overseas.
A substantial increase in monetary inflation, short of hyperinflation (which isn’t even in the realm of realistic possibility) on the other hand, would screw the banks and bondholders for the benefit of the Treasury and borrowers. It would also reduce the flow of jobs out of the country by reducing costs for domestic production relative to importation.
So, based on the last few decades, which route do you think we’ll take? The one that benefits lenders and investors at the expense of borrowers and workers, or the one that benefits borrowers and workers at the expense of lenders and investors?
And which side of that divide benefits the most from a public policy discussion that deliberately confuses price increases and monetary inflation?