The Republican attempt to end collective bargaining, which will turn unions into little more than social clubs, has clearly upset union members in Wisconsin. The obvious question is whether that will make a difference in the 2012 elections.
Historically, union families are more likely to vote for Democrats, but it’s not overwhelming. The historical average is about 57% of union households voting for Democrats, versus 46% of the overall population. That’s consistent with the overall exit polling for 2010, and the “oh noes” reporting that attempted to show that union votes pushed the Republicans over the top in 2010 ignores the fact that 40-something percent of union family members consistently vote for Republicans, despite the conventional wisdom that unions families are a solid Democratic bloc.
If union voters are ready to vote against Republicans who want to limit collective bargaining, as seems likely from the reaction of unions in Wisconsin, then perhaps 2012 will be a year where far fewer than the average 43% of union households vote for Republicans. About 25% of US households have at least one union member, so a (say) 20% swing in voting habits among them could swing an election by five percentage points. That’s obviously very significant, especially if union members and their families are energized to vote for Democrats as protectors of union rights.
What’s also significant is the effect of union get-out-the-vote campaigns. Some recent research in Los Angeles shows that any type of contact from a union member during voter canvassing increases the likelihood that that voter will vote, especially for Latinos. I hate to use the word “synergistic”, but in this case, it seems like there could be some collateral benefit to Democrats if union members are more likely to participate in GOTV efforts.
Alex S.
The GOP would really like to see Wisconsin and Ohio in their column in 2012. There are also two Senate seats the GOP would really like to have (Brown and Kohl are far too liberal for the GOP’s tastes, but sadly for them, at least Brown is also quite popular).
Poopyman
I assume the title is a riff on the old song. For our younger folks, the commercial is here.
An older one is here, but somebody needs to adjust the rabbit ears.
WyldPirate
You folks are forgetting one thing—union membership as at it’s lowest level in decades. The last figure I think I read was something like 10% of workers are represented by Unions. Most of those are in states that traditionally vote Democrat.
This business in Wisconsin is about keeping the coffin lid from being put on and nailed shut–the Unions are already pretty much dead. Obama helped fuck them over and throw the body in the coffin with his bailout of the automakers.
ETA: The rate is 11.9% according to this BLS link
joe from Lowell
If only the unionized auto makers had gone out of business, leaving the non-unionized plants in the South as the only auto industry in the country! Then the auto union would be strong.
Curse you, Barack Obama!
sistermoon
Are you kidding??? The bailout saved union jobs. If the automakers hadn’t been bailed out, the union workers would have been the first people thrown under the bus.
If anything helped kill the unions, it was the “Reagan Democrats” that bought into all his anti-union crap in the ’80’s.
Baud
@joe from Lowell: Thanks. I was debating whether that post was worth a reply, but yours is better than anything I would have come up with.
mistermix a.k.a. mastermix
@WyldPirate: According to Pew (as of 2005) the rate of union households, i.e., those with at least one union member, is holding steady at 25%. But say it’s even as low as 20%. If you can convince that group that union existence itself is at stake, then you may be able to swing a big percentage of a group that tends to turn out more regularly than other voters.
(Note that “union households” is the metric everyone uses, for whatever reason.)
Davis X. Machina
@sistermoon:
It would have been a righteous bus, though — got to grant me that.
Baud
@sistermoon: Sadly, I don’t think he is kidding.
morzer
@sistermoon:
WyldPirate can generally be relied on to have head in ass and foot in mouth at the same time. Some people just shouldn’t try learning yoga from books.
Zach
You can make a very similar argument about the Latino vote. McCain got a minority of Latino votes everywhere, but his support was substantial and necessary to win in several states and keep several others from becoming blowouts. The GOP’s likely to nominate someone without McCain’s moderate (“dang fence” aside) stance on immigration. If this leads to the GOP nominee getting 15% of the Latino vote instead of 35% or so in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and especially Florida it’ll turn the election on its head.
WyldPirate
@sistermoon:
Yeah, and all of the new workers are getting about 1/2 the pay and benefits as the current union members. When the current members age out, you get the same thing that is the goal of management–stealing labor from w9orkers.
You might also ask yourself why Obama and his crew was so intent on tearing up the Union contracts and inflicting pain on the “little guys” while jack shit has happened to the motherfuckers on Wall Street for torpedoing the economy in the first place.
Y’all just keep on fluffing that Obama cock, though. Soon enough, labor costs here inthe US will be competetive with third world countries with the support we get from the Dems and Obama.
Ann B. Nonymous
Balloon Juice, where calculators have not been overcome by gastritis.
The governor apparently won by 124,000 votes, 52% to 46%. There are 385,000 union members in Wisconsin. By all accounts, they voted more in favor of the governor than they did for his opponent. 60%? The turnout rate was about 50% of registered voters.
Putting it all together, in 2010, 115,000 union members voted against their interest. All in all, the union vote was a net 38500 votes against the Democrat. By all accounts, they are not going to do that again.
If a gubernatorial election were held today, could we assume 30% of union membership in favor of the governor, with a 66 2/3% turnout rate among members? That’s quite some energy in the videos. That would be a net 102,667 votes in favor of the Democrat, a swing of 141,167 votes.
I think you’re right about Wisconsin. The Republicans have just made that state blue.
agrippa
What needs to occur, and I have said this more than once and in more than one place, is the election of a majority of progressives in Congress. Progressive legislation cannot be passed without that majority.
Unless and until that occurs, I am sure that we will see years of Seinfeldian politics and governance.
Unions – or what is left of them – are very important in the GOTV effort. 40 to 60% of the eligible voters can be reled upon not to vote. In order for Dems to win in 2012, those people have to vote. Most are Dem voters.
Now comes governance – the elected officials have to do exactly that – govern. The 111th Congress did not govern.
Alex S.
A little off-topic, going to the Arab front: There’s a real civil war now going on in Libya. But I guess that Qaddafi is going down, soon.
Baud
I would love to see a day when a substantial number of voters (especially Democratic voters) vote to hold Republicans accountable for their positions instead of focusing on the imperfections of the Democratic Party. I haven’t seen much evidence of that in the past, however.
Davis X. Machina
@Alex S.: Leaders come, leaders go. Oil stays.
WyldPirate
@morzer:
Fuck off morzer. I worked in a UAW shop for 4 years back in the late 70s-early 80s. I made 13.75/hour the day I walked-in. Full dental, medical and vision.
Now, after ford spun the plant off into a bunch of subsidiaries and killed the Union, the people at the same plant start out at 12/hour 30 years later and have shit for benes that they have to pay out their ass for.
Yeah–“Obama saved the industry”–but he helped set back the standard of pay about 20 years for a lot of the workers and those UAW jobs, wages and benefits set the floor for other, less lucrative manufacturing jobs. These will go down as well.
Hurray, Obama saved the jobs but they ended up way shittier than they used to be wrt to pay and benefits. The little guy felt the pain and the big guys on Wall St. feel none.
Same thing with the extension of the tax breaks. Who got fucked there–the people at the very bottom of the income ladder suffer by paying more taxes.
MonkeyBoy
Nixon partially aligned the unions with Republicans as a way to protect their recent economic gains against hippies, Negros, and Mexicans, and their self concept that they (many fairly recent immigrants and Catholics) had become Real Patriotic Americans while the other groups were not.
For example, see the Hard Hat Riots.
atlliberal
I’ve never been a member of a union, but I have directly benefited from their existence. If you have a job where you are required work 40 hours a week instead of 60 (or more ) you have benefited from unions. If you get a lunch break and coffee breaks at work, you can thank the unions. If you get sick days, vacation days, holiday pay,health insurance or overtime, you can thank the unions. If you work in a safe environment, you can thank the unions.
I think you get the point. Republicans are underestimating how many people will back the unions because they can see themselves as next in line.
WyldPirate
@mistermix a.k.a. mastermix:
I wasn’t arguing that your figures were wrong, just simply that membership is and has been cratering. In actuality, I would imagine that both of us are right wrt to the numbers we posted, but that the number is “normalized” in different ways.
I would be interested in seeing what the breakdown of Union membership is by region or state as I think that would be fairly telling. My guess–w/o supporting data–would be that most of the Union membership is in states that traditionally vote Dem (no big surprise). That sure didn’t seem to stop the tidal wave of takeovers of governorships and state legislatures in 2010.
If the Unions can’t stop this sort of shit that is going on in Wisconsin now–in one of their strongholds–then you can stick a fork in them.
Personally, i think the union members ought to do what they did back in the old days–stage an across the board walkout and shut down the Wisconsin government. That’s the only thing in my opinion that will get Scott and the Rethugs attention in that state.
morzer
@WyldPirate:
Still yapping at people to cover your own stupidity, pirate-chan? You wanted to bash Obama, and you kicked your own sad little ass instead. Deal with it.
WyldPirate
@atlliberal:
You’re exactly right in your recitation of the benefits you recieved as a non-union member from the benefits of the existance of unions.
What the problem is is that people are to stupid to realize that as exhibited here by all of the Obama fluffing going on about “he saved the auto industry”. Yeah, maybe he did, but he broke a legally binding contract and that resulted in a huge setback in the earning potential for people entering those industries.
Chyron HR
Oh, look, it’s one of those guys who tries to deflect any and all criticism of the GOP by going off on a tangent about how evil Obama is.
You know, a teabagger.
sistermoon
@morzer: ROTFLOL… The visual of that statement is priceless.
morzer
@WyldPirate:
I don’t care whether you got down on your delicate little knees and personally fellated every machine-toolist between here and Albuquerque. Obama saved millions of jobs with the auto-bailout, and did so in the teeth of bitter opposition from the GOP and the Blue Dogs. As for the fact that he didn’t also conjure up a magical unicorn to fart gold-dust, maybe you should look at the fact that the auto industry had been fucking itself in the ass for decades. If you want to yip and yap about how Obama didn’t magically redeem the gross stupidity of the auto industry overnight, feel free to weep and whine and clutch your pale little concern-troll hands in sorrow and rage. In fact, why don’t you go down to the rust-belt and explain that losing those jobs would have been much better for the workers in question? Maybe you’ll find a few machine-toolists that you missed on your first grand tour of the area.
atlliberal
@WyldPirate: That contract would have been broken either way, and if he hadn’t done the bailout those people would be without a job. The president was in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t position, and he did the thing that would save the most jobs. Far from perfect, but he did the right thing. I think we’d all be happier if the criminals who caused the whole mess were in jail instead of enjoying their new bonuses. This mess wasn’t created by this president. It has been a 40 year process to corporatize America. It’s going to take more time to fix it than 2, 4 or even 8 years.
lllphd
seems first that the hardline repugs want to do a workaround to shove this through without the dems, but also a moderate republican is offering a compromise.
key test of walkerās resolve and general dickheadedness. he can always be recalled in january and replaced by feingold!
Poopyman
Digby has an odd post up today. I say odd because at first blush it seems odd to equate Egypt with Wisconsin. But maybe those guys have better insight into what’s happening in Madison than I do ….
jwb
@WyldPirate: Yes, let’s blame this on Obama. That’s a winning strategy.
Merkin
@WyldPirate:
which kept union members employed. What on earth are you talking about?
jwb
@morzer: “pirate-chan”ābrilliant!
lllphd
ha! check out this ‘added incentive‘ to push this bill through!
Alex S.
@Poopyman:
Haha, nice. Globalization leads to funny results.
But it also foreshadows a time when the USA will be just one power among many and other countries will give their suggestions for the american economy, just like America exported its version of capitalism all over the world.
Merkin
@WyldPirate:
yes because clearly the answer to keep the auto unions strong and keep good pay and benefits is to let the fucking auto companies go bankrupt.
what a jackass.
PurpleGirl
Poopyman: Those commercials brought back memories for me. I had an aunt who was an ILGWU member and I used to read her union newspapers.
From Wikipedia:
I vividly remember the fight to organize the Judy Bond blouse company and the how the company moved south to “right to work states” to get out of dealing with the union. Ultimately, they did unionize but a few years later they moved offshore to the Caribbean. In the late 1980s, it was still hard for me to consider buying a Judy Bond blouse. Once they moved offshore, I wouldn’t even consider it, even when they were among the few companies making nice clothes in larger sizes.
Nick
@WyldPirate:
Wyld, you can’t be this stupid. What earning potential would people have if there’s no industry for them to enter? The bailout was done with consultation from the unions themselves. They approved of it. My God, this is beyond idiotic.
agrippa
Point of fact:
The auto industry has hired very few people since the 1970s, and the work force has gotten older and older. Since that time, the UAW has negotiated lower starting salaries for new hires. Now, the auto industry is going to begin hiring some people at these rates. Which is about $15 an hour. Salaried pay has gone down as well.
Organizers, in general, have never succeeded in orgainizing ‘salaried’ employees.
Zach
@WyldPirate: “Same thing with the extension of the tax breaks. Who got fucked thereāthe people at the very bottom of the income ladder suffer by paying more taxes.”
The payroll tax cut more than offsets the end of the Making Work Pay cut for most people. For people who don’t pay payroll tax, such as myself, it’s a $400 loss. For most working people, though, it’s a net cut. Not saying it’s a good thing, just that it’s not a tax hike for most (and yes, it does hurt people at the bottom of the income ladder who don’t make the ~20k or so at which point you pay less w/ the extension than with the MWP cut).
Nick
@WyldPirate:
Wall Street had nothing to do with the collapse of the auto industry dumbass. You’re talking over yourself.
Yankee Buzzard
If you knew nothing about the protest here in Madison and were to find yourself at Capitol Square and especially in the rotunda at night you’d think “This must be a youth revolt but it has the support of a lot of older people.” The support of students from college down through high school but even younger has been extraordinary. Last week high school students walked out in Appleton for goodness sake. There’s something deep going on here and the union leadership, God Bless Them otherwise, don’t acknowledge it or understand how to use it. The atmosphere within the crowd and city in general is amazing, positive and festive. You want to be here.
shortstop
@Yankee Buzzard:
I do. Wish I could be — only about a 3.5-hour drive for us, but duty won’t shut up this week.
FFrank
hey can any of the front pagers put on Any good Pete Seager tunes. or the boss etc. etc.
I’m at work and can’t look up things like… The history of union organizing for the coal miners of WV and Kentucky. Major real battles have been fought and lives lost.
WyldPirate
@Nick:
Nick, It’s called an analogy you stupid fuck. The money boys on Walls St. felt no pain from their criminality, while the little people in the unions got fucked–along with millions of others. Furthermore, I said nothing about Wall St. causing the downfall of the auto industry you dense fuckwit. My point was, that Obama–at least in the breaks and bailout deals he cut for Wall St., didn’t fuck over all of the rich assholes getting their huge bonus or salaries. Neither is his DOJ or SEC being aggressive in prosecuting people for wrongdoing. Why? Because a lot of them will end up making millions on Wall St one day.
And yes, the UAW played a part in the downfall of the US auto industry. But poor management was just as complicit.
The story with the auto industry has the same theme that we are seeing with the “austerity push” by the masters of the universe. What it boils down to is “austerity for thee but not for me” WRT to the have and the have nots.
I don’t see why you people have such a problem seeing this as what we are looking at that we are going backward in this country in that compensation of ordinary workers is going backwards in order to be more competitive with third-world countries. It’s “stealing labor” as Dennis Green put it. Sure, Obama may have been between a rock and a hard place with the auto industry. And sure he may have saved the industry and kept millions of people employed. But their wages will suffer for a generation because of it as the older UAW workers age out. But look who he chose to play hardball with–labor and not the monied fucking criminals on Wall St. That’s been my point all along.
JGabriel
mistermix @ top:
I think it depends a lot on how successful Republicans are in spreading the propaganda that this is about wages & benefits.
I get the impression that most people don’t know this is about the right of collective bargaining, and right of unions to effectively represent their members. As long as people think it’s about wages & benefits, they just look at it as a pissing match in rough economic times, and it isn’t likely to change their vote.
.
morzer
@WyldPirate:
Still learning yoga from books, pirate_chan?
Sue
Sorry if anyone’s already mentioned this, I only have time to drop by today, but… why wait until 2012? This has to start locally and it has to start now. Every local candidate, school board, council, whatever, needs to be asked where they stand on the union-busting issue and they should be called on it when they try to dance around it. Local politicians need to know that the fallout from Walker starts with them.
Also, send a pizza to a protester if you have a buck or two:
http://jezebel.com/#!5765608/please-feed-the-badgers
JGabriel
@Nick:
GM was a pretty big player in the finance industry, via their loan programs. I don’t think you can say Wall Street had nothing to do with their collapse.
.
Nick
@WyldPirate:When you use an analogy, make it make fucking sense. Wall St and the auto industry and two completely different situations.
What break or bailout deal did he cut for Wall St. exactly? Really, I’d like to know.
Also
what does Otter Creek, Maine have to do with anything?
Nick
@JGabriel:
yes you can. GM was underwater and needed to be saved before the financial crisis.
Merkin
@WyldPirate:
and poor management was canned.
Woody
There’s another issue concerning the political power of unions – the number of now-retired union folks. Anecdotally, I know several and many of them have gone the way of all Fox (usually through social conservatism).
I’ve brought it up to a few — that they now enjoy a comfortable retirement they know damned well they wouldn’t receive were it not for their union — but they just get slightly uncomfortable and say “. . . yeah . . .” and go right back to their Fox masters.
I’m constantly re-amazed at the power of religious belief when I consider the Ministry of Fox — all they have to do is scream that [gays][uppity women][minorities] will benefit, and they’ll shove their own children’s future off the bus.
Rathskeller
I have nothing shout-y to add over WyldPirate’s takeover of yet another thread with “Obama didn’t fix everything; he is indeed Satan.”
Still, I’ll offer the small anecdote that I was very impressed with the union people’s door-to-door GOTV effort in Las Vegas, when I was doing the same for Obama (at the same level). They were professional, and they had good targets set up.
I strongly agree that this is a hill to die on. The ability to form a trade union is a basic right. It’s ironic that wingnuts who can quickly form analogies between taxation and slavery, or abortion and slavery, cannot somehow seem to link “people being unable to meaningfully alter their working conditions” with slavery.
Pococurante
@Merkin:
Not the management that struck those self-destructive deals back in the 1970s. They retired gloriously rich.
Pococurante
@Woody:
But even younger union members can be quite conservative. Many of them are small town / semi-rural, socially conservative, and low information.
I live around a bunch such folks. They feel they are voting their values, and take pride in that when it’s pointed out they are voting against their economic interests.
To the extent they can’t admit the values propaganda is propaganda is again testament to the fact they are low information.
D2
Saying 25% of households have a union member is not the same thing as saying 25% of all people (or all voters) are union members. I agree with the overall post, but we have to call out bad math here, too.
anon84
FUN LABOR FACTS!
There are 125 million employed workers in the United States.
Of these, 103 million are private sector jobs and 22 million are public sector jobs.
Each sector has 7+ million union workers (7.1 million private, 7.6 million public)
It’s plain to see how the wages and benefits of the 6% of the country’s workers employed publicly are responsible for 100% of everything that is fucked up with the country’s fiscal budgets. Right? Politician and politically appointed managers?
Nobody could have anticipated that.
Except to blame ‘union thugs’ in retrospect.