Commenter AnnaN on what happens to her if Republicans shut down the government next week:
My husband and I are both Feds so we will have absolutely no income if this shut down comes to pass.
There is a plan in place – we are to show up on Monday, put affairs in order – get payroll run through Friday/Monday morning so people get their last paycheck. We are required to put in two hours and then get the hell out of Dodge. Not sure what’s going to happen to the contractors. Their salaries are already paid for through the end of the fiscal year, but they won’t be allowed on site because of security issues. It’s a sticky legal situation that hasn’t been officially worked out at this point.
As far as a furlough is concerned – our line office in NOAA has been told that we need to cut our budget 10% from last fiscal year which would require people to take a day off per two week pay period through the end of FY11. That, and the expected layoff of many contracted employees will require me to take on a LOT more work for a 10% pay cut.
I know there are other commenters who work for the federal government. How are you planning to cope if Republicans shut down the government?
I’m not 100% convinced McBoehner have the stones to try this caper, just wondering what happens if they do.
Galileo126
I’m a contractor for NASA. We have been told to put everything in “safe mode” the day before a shut down. Then, the NASA facility I work at will lock its doors. My employer is working on what we (as contractors) will do in this case. Paid or not Paid? I dunno yet. Film at eleven, I guess.
Dexter
Doesn’t the debt limit need to be raised sometime in April? So Boner may not actually shut the government down. Not because he cares for the little guy, but not raising the debt limit will inconvenience the Galtian overlords.
However, if he keeps passing CR with democrats’ votes, the tea party may want to throw him under the bus.
Mark S.
I posted this in another thread, but our troops will be getting killed for free if the govt shuts down. Unfuckingbelievable.
LGRooney
BJ party in DC for those of us with time off? I’m a contractor over at DOT, living inside the beltway, VA-side. We’re not sure what happens if there is a shut down.
LGRooney
BJ party in DC for those of us with time off? I’m a contractor over at DOT, living inside the beltway, VA-side. We’re not sure what happens if there is a shut down.
Comrade DougJ
@LGRooney:
I can post something about this if this shit really goes down. Sounds like fun.
BGinCHI
How does the gov’t deal with essential services during a shutdown?
I assume they don’t just abandon the border and stop inspecting meat.
danimal
From a tactical perspective, the best time for Boehner to get the maximal deal is right before a shutdown. If the shutdown happens, the likely result will be a weakened, divided GOP, an invigorated, pissed off Dem base (think WI) and a lethargic public waking up to the size and scale of the GOP cuts. If the GOP overplays their hand, they will likely leave the field in a rout. Boehner knows this, and still the shutdown may occur, because the Tea Party is that powerful in GOP circles.
Pass the popcorn.
beltane
Make voodoo dolls of prominent Republicans and stick in needles in appropriate places? I dunno, it’s worth a try.
Gustopher
@BGinCHI: They’ve already stopped inspecting meat.
R-Jud
@beltane: Just not the crotch, the heart, or the head– they wouldn’t feel anything.
kindness
OK, so Boehner would be a crazy fool to reject his Teabaggers and join with Democratic critters to pass bills. I wish he would do it but he won’t. He values his job more than he values a functioning Congress or America. Let’s face it, the Teabaggers would nail his scalp to the wall and he would be out of his Speaker job in no time flat if he did work with Democrats.
The Teabaggers…they want to fail. Do they think they are phenixes and will rise from the ashes to rule? Crazy talk. I honestly don’t know what they really think. Nutzoids though.
Dave L
“I’m not 100% convinced McBoehner have the stones to try this caper”
I think the point is that he doesn’t have the stones to stand up to Teasheviks braying for a shutdown. If it were up to Congressional Republicans, it probably wouldn’t happen.
beltane
I just saw a headline saying that South Carolina is fighting to keep incandescent light bulbs. I am in favor of this move just I am in favor of them running their air conditioners on full blast with their windows and doors left open. They can also smoke two packs of cigarettes a day and subsist on a diet of margarine sticks deep fried in Crisco. Maybe they will drive themselves into extinction with their attempts to
make us laughpiss liberals off.ppcli
My wife’s job is split – 60% of her salary comes from the University hospital where she is on faculty, the other 40 because she is a physician with the local VA hospital. My salary doesn’t come from the Federal government. So we will take a financial hit if they shut down the VA hospital, but it won’t be a full-scale crisis.
I am a bit more worried today than I was a couple of days ago, after Eric Cantor announced that “if the government shuts down, people will blame the Democrats”. If they are already shifting into blame-throwing mode, they getting the decks clear for battle if they choose.
Martin
@BGinCHI: There are no essential government services. It’s all liberal welfare waste.
@danimal: I agree with all of that. This isn’t GOP/Dem fighting – it’s establishment GOP/teaparty fighting. I don’t see how the House won’t get lumped in with Wisconsin and the other teaparty actions at this stage – the Dems did a good job of raising awareness. Nobody will seriously buy that this wasn’t a concerted effort by the right.
scav
@beltane: if only someone could convince them that the latest x-box / flat-screen / ipad were equally tainted. They could bravely lead the way back to tube-based computing.
Omnes Omnibus
OT: Judge Sumi has continued injunction in WI labor case.
Arclite
I plan on doing my taxes this weekend. I wonder if my rebate will be delayed.
Meg
I expect to see Boehner cry over this on the house floor.
JGabriel
DougJ:
I’m pretty sure McBoehner don’t have the stones to stand up to their base and prevent a shutdown. (For some reason, I keep typing shitdown.)
.
khead
Well, I was implying in the earlier thread that it might be good time to have a big party with a few (thousand) of my local coworkers.
I would host but our townhouse isn’t that big and I want to avoid any of the Hatch Act issues touched on in the other thread.
Too bad it’s not this week ’cause the cherry blossoms are at peak.
Redshirt
I think you’re all too optimistic. The media works for the Repugs – why wouldn’t they spin a shutdown as Obama’s fault? He’s in charge of the Government, after all!
ppcli
@Martin:
That’s going a bit too far. I expect that the hundreds of thousands of dollars of farm subsidy boodle that went to Michele Bachmann’s family farm were exactly the kind of wise government expenditures that the founders envisaged.
Fuck U6: A More Accurate Measure of the Total Amount of Duck-Fuckery in the Economy
My contract will have us be furloughed. Furloughed Gov’t. employees may recieve back pay after, furloughed contractors will not be receiving back pay under any circumstances.
So I will be trying to figure out how to not default on student loans, miss rent, and other fun things.
4tehlulz
So when do we hit the debt ceiling?
I want to make sure I have a sufficient supply of booze for the harmonic convergence of gov’t shutdown and default.
BGinCHI
@Martin: Can’t get anything past you jackals.
agrippa
The GOP is the party doing the hollering. That may help to get them blamed for it.
The TP does not really know what it “wants”. It is, basically, driven by fear and anger. I don’t think that many of them actually have a good idea why they are angry and afraid.
Zifnab
@kindness:
I can’t help but agree with this. Look at the Senate races in Delaware and Nevada. They didn’t even try and pick a popular candidate. Just went with the Sarah Palin wanna-bes.
At this point, Boehner needs to force some of the Tea Party Caucus folk to break ranks and join him. I’m unclear why he hasn’t done that yet. He should have bought them all off ages ago.
I just don’t understand who the hell is leading the Tea Party movement, or what their end game is supposed to be. Why can’t the GOP get these guys in line if they’re products of the GOP media engine?
beltane
It would be nice if some blame fell on the teabaggers themselves. If older white conservatives would rather destroy this country than share it with others it would seem appropriate of they are held responsible for their behavior. I know I’m supposed to have compassion for them as fellow human beings but I really don’t have any compassion for them.
danimal
@agrippa: There’s a lieberal, soshalist Kenyan in the White House, and you don’t know why conservatives are afraid?
I just wish I had bought stock in Depends undergarments as soon as that furriner from Hawaindonesia/Kenya was (s)elected president by Axis of ACORN.
Failure, Inc.
This is absolutely not the case. As I can unfortunately assure you.
Fargus
I work for the Federal government, and we’ve basically gotten next to no guidance about whether we’re going to be furloughed or not. They’ve taken our phone numbers so our supervisors can call us and let us know what’s up, but that’s been about it.
But I’ve got a wedding coming up, so I’ve been living pretty close to the bone as is. I don’t know how I’m going to be able to make shit work if a shutdown goes on long enough to delay a paycheck. Or, even worse, if they don’t give back pay to furloughed employees.
FoxinSocks
My brother, a very bright and talented microbiologist, was interviewing for a gov’t job before the GOP took the House. Now, he says he’s no longer interested, as the constant threat of a gov’t shutdown is just too much for him to deal with.
I live near DC and have several friends and family who are either gov’t employees or contractors. Most of them are downright terrified and they’re scared to make major decisions, such as whether or not to buy a house, until this gets resolved.
Also, my mother, who sells furniture, says that ever since a gov’t shutdown became a serious threat, that her sales have plummetted. And she works on commission, so this is impacting her ability to pay the bills.
So yeah, thanks GOP, and thanks to everyone who voted for them.
soonergrunt
I am a contractor for the Air Force. I am in a queue for a GS (direct Federal employee) position.
If the shutdown goes through, we don’t know if we’re going to get paid or not. The money to pay the contract is already appropriated but we don’t know if it’s been delivered since I work for a sub contractor and the prime isn’t telling us, their “partner” anything. We know that the doors will be locked so we won’t be able to work. We’re waiting to hear what corporate wants to do. We are an employee-owned company, that mainly does IT for the federal government, so we could take a serious hit.
As far as my potential government employee position, all processing on it will stop, and it may go away completely.
As for the VA, I’m pending determination as to disability and such, and that keeps getting pushed back, which of course pushes back selection for the GS position because veteran disability status is part of the scoring.
My wife works for the state of Oklahoma, and her department gets a huge amount of its budget from the federal government, so she could be furloughed as well.
Chris
I’m a low-end contractor (pretty much just go through boxes and enter data) at a government institution, whose contract is set to run out by the summer anyways. So if I get a few days off, I’ll probably use them to shoot off a bunch of job applications to other places.
Not as good as getting paid, but productive in its own way.
J
Surely, this won’t interfere with the payment of monies owed to Halliburton?
John PM
Does a shutdown (almost typed shitdown, like a previous commentor) mean that the federal courts will be closed as well? What about the prisons? Do we tell the prisoners to act on the honor systems while the guards and federal marshalls are not working? I am becoming more convinced that the Tea partiers do not honestly understand what will happen if there is an actual government shutdown. The only upside I can see is that Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito will not be collecting a paycheck, and neither will the Tea party representatives.
Turgid Jacobian
I work at one of those federal departments as a civil servant. We’ve been told to not show up if our phone tree activates. Say good bye, my little savings!
Barb (formerly Gex)
@Zifnab: There’s no leader. This is unruly mob territory. They’re angry, they have pitchforks, and they see monsters everywhere.
J
I hope to God that if this does happen Obama and the Democrats are ready to explain to the public on whom the blame should be pinned, not blather about congress failing to do its job or the unwillingness of both sides to come together and compromise or the like.
Tax Analyst
Love those Steely Dan song titles, Comrade DJ.
Some day you might just be King of the World…or at least maybe Pearl of the Quarter.
Chris
@kindness:
I think Beltane @ 30 has it right. If they can’t have it all, then nobody will: they want their country “back” and are ready and willing to burn it to the ground if they don’t get it. They’re counting on the notion that the rest of the country cares more about keeping the country running than they do about winning, and thus will agree to their terms.
(Which keep changing because hey – what was it Harrison Ford said in Air Force One? “If you give a mouse a cookie, he’s going to want a glass of milk?” Yeah, that).
Yevgraf (fka Michael)
Fuck this weak sauce “essential service” shit. Make shutdown really hurt – close control towers, stop military pay, prison guards go unpaid, check processing for contractors, subsidies, Medicare and Medicaid stop. Nobody gets their pension checks from military or fedguv retirement, either.
stuckinred
@Tax Analyst:
You must be joking son
where did you get those shoes
David in NY
Beats me. And I’ve got a brief due next week in the Second Circuit. Any chance they won’t be there to get it?
stuckinred
@J: don’t call me surely!
JPL
@Arclite: I have to pay. I wonder if there will be anyone there to cash my check. lol
BGinCHI
@Yevgraf (fka Michael): This is where I was headed with my questions above.
If the teabaggers want this kind of thing, then let’s shut off everything (Medicare, SS, etc.) and see their howls of rage when they find of the government isn’t just the hander-outer of T-bones to young bucks.
“Wait, my SS? NOOOOO!”
Amir_Khalid
As a foreigner, I have a question: After the shutdown ends (if, God forbid, it starts in the first place), will US government servants be entitled to arrears of pay?
Catsy
@Dave L:
I was about to make this same point. It’s not at all true that it would require courage from the Boehner to “pull off” the government shutdown. On the contrary, it’s a result of his inability to stand up to the teatards.
I really don’t envy the position he’s in. I suspect that on some level, he groks just how disastrous a true shutdown would be–not only for the country in general, but for Republican pols in particular. But with the hardcore Republican base becoming increasingly indistinguishable from the teabaggers, it would take an act of serious political courage for him to avert a shutdown. Especially since our broken system makes it disproportionately easier to throw a wrench into things by stamping your feet and chanting “NO!” than it is to overcome that kind of naked obstructionism.
Surly Duff
Even if a budget passes, proposed funding cuts are going to force furloughs or RIFs regardless. A shutdown in April will only be the beginning of the pain.
jrg
@Yevgraf (fka Michael): This. Shut it all down.
There is simply no other way elderly conservatives will realize that the check they get every month comes from the government, not a leprechaun feces refinery.
Social outcast
I sympathize with everyone who is working paycheck to paycheck, but for workers like my wife the shutdown will probably mean that she just gets paid late for work she won’t have to do. That’s what happened in her office last time. It’s a stupid waste of money, even for a party that is pushing the envelope of stupidity beyond any Congress that’s come before it.
redoubt
@David in NY: According to this, everything shuts down and only judges will get paid.
Another Fed, in Atlanta. Rent will be paid for this month. After that–??
Yevgraf (fka Michael)
One more brilliant thought – this will hammer the teatard suburbanites most of all. Public assistance recipients, both urban and rural, are used to getting by on nothing. For your average North of Atlanta suburban wingnut, he’d be howling like a hysterical little bitch when the defense dollars stop. Same with Nashville and medical contracts, etc.
OzoneR
@J:
is the public willing to listen? I mean I guess as long as it doesn’t interrupt Dancing With The Stars, or American Idol, or Grey’s Anatomy, or NCIS: Los Angeles, or CSI, or Jersey Shore, and as long as it doesn’t interrupt CBS’ West Palm Beach, Florida affiliates commercial breaks, that maybe.
soonergrunt
@Yevgraf (fka Michael): You got room for me, my wife, and two kids, or some family like ours to move in with you?
Bobby D
I’m GS employee set to be on TDY training/travel the week after the deadline. So I get to sit around waiting to see whether or not I get on a plane that Mon morning. Also have a year’s lease for a new (to me) house I’m waiting to sign…
David in NY
@redoubt: Thanks.
J
@stuckinred: or payments to Blackwater
Chris
@Yevgraf (fka Michael):
Yeah, I know a conservative like that too.
She (already) blames Obama.
AnnaN
@Failure, Inc.:
I don’t understand what you mean by “absolutely not the case”.
beltane
@David in NY: I think they stayed open last time, at least with a skeleton crew (I used to work there) but I have no idea if there will be a regular oral argument schedule or just one of the judges doing emergency motions, etc.
chopper
As a fed, I’m not sure how it would all work out for me. I am happy that I don’t work paycheck-to-paycheck or anything like that so I’ll be okay. Guess I’d have a nice week off.
PIGL
I think you should probably shut it down, and leave it shut down until every last Republican voter has either wised up or died. After that point, you may possibly be able to reconstitute a worthwhile nation-state. Or not. Five or six more modest-sized countries with interests in common, rather than a pack of lies, would probably be a better outcome for all concerned. Not that this is an original idea of course.
To my mind, the mere fact that this shutdown is even the remotest possibility demonstrates that the USA has had a good long run that is over.
Maude
@soonergrunt:
Why is it okay to hurt people in order to score political points?
Is this like the 101st Chairborn?
chopper
Happened last time, but then again goopers in congress ate tons of shit over the issue last time. If they end up hurting over it this time around we’ll certainly get paid after the fact again.
soonergrunt
@Maude: Check fire, because that’s the very point I was making.
Cermet
DOD does not shut down – period; never happened the last time (I was there – neither Gov or contractors at our subbranch were off or without pay) and won’t happen this time (as DOD as stated to DOD employee’s.) Contractors are case by case and even depends on the type of work they or their agency does- so some in DOD are essential and will be paid, others, that is a gray area.
Last time back pay was awarded BUT this congress may not do that. Also, no idea if the pay gets delivered on time or has to wait for others to show up – didn’t last time but these times are a changing.
Yevgraf (fka Michael)
@Maude:
The chairborne rangers and the teatards have a high intersect quotient. Sadly, the notion of half a shutdown is too painless for their base. Only a real shutdown can bring it home.
Mark S.
@John PM:
I’m sure the Kochs will provide for them.
Socraticsilence
My question- what happens to State Department staff overseas- I mean we don’t do something stupid like close embassies right?
The Other Chuck
Turns out the Republican Party really is maintaining a laser-like focus on jobs.
As in that 500 Terawatt NIF laser.
Bill Arnold
How to put this. If the Republicans shut down the government, during a severe jobless recovery, as a negotiating tactic to force more government cutbacks, during a severe jobless recovery, and the economy double dips and millions more Americans (and 10s of millions worldwide) become unemployed, they will not succeed in blaming the Democrats. (They must not be allowed to even try.)
If this scenario plays out in full, there will be a lot of people very angry with the Republicans. (I would be one, and would hold a grudge. For decades.)
Turgidson
The Dems will somehow, against all reason, be blamed for a shutdown. The media landscape is different now vs. during the Gingrich fail parade. I’m very fond of Obama overall, but I’d prefer to have Slick Willy back right about now just because he’d handle the political gamesmanship and blame game better than Obama.
The Dems have repeatedly set out to pass legislation that polled well at the outset, made substantial compromises in crafting the bill, and managed to decisively lose the public argument anyway. Why should this situation play out any different? They’ll eventually acquiesce to some very unfortunate cuts, and get blamed for both the shutdown and the cuts anyway.
Omnes Omnibus
@Turgidson: Because there is a difference between pushing things to the edge and plummeting into the abyss.
Evolved Deep Southerner
@stuckinred: Only a fool would say that.
Turgidson
@Omnes Omnibus:
Sure there is. I just don’t see any reason to believe the Dems won’t be blamed for the plunge.
After the shitstorm of lies, obfuscation, and shameless mendacity we’ve dealt with since 2008, and really, throughout W’s reign of terror, and watching it fool a lot of the people a lot of the time, I no longer have faith that the public at large will realize who was at fault.
Even when the Dems latch on to the winning argument, not enough people hear it, or listen. Then they abandon the argument and compromise. Then they get blamed for the fact that compromise sucks.
The way the crusade against labor in the midwest has blown up in the GOP’s face gives me a sliver of hope. But that’s all.
tt crews
Federal employee here. Management has given us absolutely no guidance. The only people giving us any info at all is the National Treasury Employees Union. I was in the last two shutdowns. Not fun at all, but we eventually got paid.
We’ve been told we can get other work during a shutdown but we have to have management approve our request for “outside” employment first. I have an approved request in place at all times (and have for the past 20 years) but I think I won’t have much luck getting anything in this economy.
OzoneR
@Turgidson:
cause they’re not in power, and the only reason Bill was better at the blame game was because he was white and folksy. People related to him. White people just plain don’t relate to Obama. He’s black, he’s intelligent and he’s from an exotic background, he’s every Joe Schmo’s nightmare. He’s everything they spent their entire lives trying to keep down and quiet.
DS
I think some of you are forgetting that during the last government shutdown, there was a middle-aged white southerner in the White House. The GOPs base will be affected a great deal by this – old people on SS, Medicare and rural Medicaid recipients, defense, possibly Ag-Sub. people, etc. – but does anybody actually think they will blame the GOP instead of the scary black man in the White House? I don’t, but then again I’m a pessimist.
jak
@Cermet:
Parts of DoD shut down last time.
Turgidson
@OzoneR:
They have control of the White House and Senate. Their fingerprints will be on this due to that fact alone. And the GOP knows it and will have talking points ready. “Hey Americans, we only control the House! Blame the party that has the Senate AND the WH!” Cantor’s already saying it.
Tax Analyst
@stuckinred:
I see that monkey in your soul and I raise you four.
The shoes? I took ’em off Charley Freak. He didn’t need ’em anymore and they were a perfect fit.
The Other Chuck
@DS:
There was also no Fox News last time.
agrippa
@danimal:
danimal: they cannot really tell you what they are afriad of. I have a good idea, but they do not.
ppcli
Maybe (despite all experience pointing me in the opposite direction) I’m just a starry-eyed optimist, but I think this is different from almost every other problem that gets blamed on Obama. A government shutdown reminds people, in a very harsh way, just how much they depend on government services. It gives the lie to the Republican refrain of “less government is better”/”Government is the problem, not the solution”, etc. It gets people to think a bit about what the teahadist “paradise” would really look like.
ericblair
@jak:
My understanding is that military officers/enlisted are going to have to show up, but probably won’t be paid during the shutdown. Civvies on a case-by-case basis depending on the protection of life or property guidelines.
I work for a federal contractor on a DoD firm fixed price contract. If Boehner and his merry fuckups pull the plug, my understanding is that our customers will probably be furloughed, but we keep on grinding out our deliverables and dumping them in the gov’ts mailbox. We’ve gotten some guidance from our contracts weenies on alternate places of performance, but haven’t heard anything from the government guys yet. We’ll get paid normally as employees, but obviously our company won’t and depending on how long this goes on that might be a serious cash flow issue.
OzoneR
@Turgidson:
He could perhaps win by saying “we have a bill, the Senate does not and the WH won’t sign it” but that’s what happened last time. The Senate didn’t have the votes for the Newt’s bill, and when it did, Clinton vetoed it and he still won.
But he also won because of a sequence of events and fuckups on Newt’s part (Remember the Daily News “Cry Baby” cover)
Basically, a lot of this fluid and depends on circumstances out of our control, and in some cases out of Boehner or Obama’s control. It’s based on public perception and whose message the media decides to carry. It depends on the grassroots, who can get their message out faster and clearer and to the most people, and it depends on the views of the fickle independents who are about as unpredictable as a snake at the Bronx Zoo.
Perhaps Clinton wouldn’t have won the argument if the Daily News had run a cover complaining that Clinton mistreated the poor Speaker.
Glen Tomkins
Shooting the Moon
Plan on a long hiatus if you work for the federal govt. Maybe it will be punctuated by administration attempts to shift funds or govt workers around, but expect it to be, overall, very long if it happens, and to result in there not being jobs for many to ever return to at the end.
If the Rs shut down the govt this year, I don’t expect it to be at all like 1995 or 96. They won’t back down once they do it, if they do it, until they have won completely, not just the budget number position they are pushing right now, but won in the sense of total D capitulation. (“And how would total D capitulation look different from what we have now?”, you snark, and I have no ready answer.)
I base that judgment on the example of WI.
The less important part of that is the example WI provides the rest of us of the R mindset these days. Of course it’s a given that the fact that WI Rs are stubbornly persistent in their radicalism way past any point of rational partisan calculation is no guarantee that the national Rs are the same way. State parties can vary widely in either direction from their national parties.
The more important part of that is the example that WI is giving the Rs. If they see that radicalism isn’t playing well in the polls in WI, or OH, or IN, or MI, or FL — and they still go forward with a shutdown — whatever else you can say about that decision, it will not have been made in ignorance of the political risks. Going ahead with a shutdown will mean that they don’t care, at all, about immediate poll numbers.
Practically speaking, they have much less immediate reason for such concern than the WI Rs. We don’t have recall for any federal office holders. If they can tough out bad poll numbers until 11/12 — more to the point, if they think they can tough out bad poll numbers until 11/12 — but have facts on the ground turned back their way by then, why should they worry about the poll numbers right now?
Okay, how do they make sure that facts on the ground are turned around, are better, by 11/12? The answer, in their mind, is surely by taking control of the economy. How do they do that while the Ds control the Senate and WH? Win the budget battle, completely, to the point of total D capitulation.
Once they catch the shutdown train, they can’t get off short of total victory. It will be like shooting the moon in Hearts. They will have to get every heart and the Queen of Spades to win big, because anything shy of that, if only by one trick, means they lose big.
snailbiscuits
My wife and I are dual military and from what i understand we will not be getting paid if there is a shutdown. We just transferred to Hawaii and our rent is too high to try and come out of pocket. We will really be hurting from this.
Turgidson
@OzoneR:
Is there really any doubt about where the media will land on this, though? Hence my trepidation.
Number Three
Courts: The federal courts can continue to operate on filing fees for at least two weeks. I won’t say more, because I work there, but that is what I have heard. The courts are not particularly concerned. Whether this is constitutional or not is a separate question . . . .
Suffern ACE
@Turgidson:
Many people will think that this is a shutdown over planned parenthood funding, or NPR, since those cuts get most of the airtime.
Fargus
@Cermet: Some of DoD shut down last time. I believe in some departments GS13s and below were furloughed, and above had to stay.
PurpleGirl
It will be the Democrats fault and all their fault because the Democrats don’t want to cut the budget and just want to spend. Real simple. Republican message of the ages… Democrats only want to spend money.
Glen Tomkins
@Turgidson: I don’t think the Rs got blamed for the shutdowns in 1995-6 because the media was on our side, and I doubt we’ll be blamed this time because the media has switched sides.
These shut-downs are basically games of chicken. Both in 1995-6 and this year, the Rs figure that they will win because they are crazier, less afraid of crashing, the other other side knows they’re crazier, and therefore the other side will swerve at the last minute, and they will win.
The problem with that line of reasoning is that this particular game of chicken is being fought in public between political parties that come in for a PR hit if they seem as crazy as the sort of folks who play chicken. Being perceived as crazy may help you vis-a-vis the other party, within the battle, but it plays havoc with your public support, and makes you lose the wider war.
I don’t worry about our side being blamed for the shutdown, if we are to have one. The Rs will be blamed, and they will take a big immediate PR hit.
What I worry about is that they don’t care about immediate poll numbers. They will figure that they can tough it out, that people will have forgotten about the shutdown by the next time they go to the real polls, the ones that count, in 11/12.
pattonbt
Since for some reason I’m in a prognosticating mood today, I will say the following.
I’m actually an optimist on one point (the main point): I don’t think there will be a shutdown. While the tea party caucus and the Republicans in general are crazy, I think they will walk back a bit and not go for shutdown. I think Obama will throw some more stuff on the table before the deadline, they’ll take it and crow about how “they won” and then this blog (and the media narrative, etc.) will blow up this weekend about how “Obama caved again”.
Of course, my prognosticating abilities are never solid, for, there’s that.
At the same time, I am pessimistic that if a shutdown goes forward that it will play well for Democrats. I just do not have faith that the playing field right now in the public consciousness and media will allow for anything other than “blame Obama and the Democrats”. At best it will be “both sides do it” junk which favors no one.
So overall, I think it’s going to be a bad week for Obama from all sides no matter the outcome.
pto892
The last shutdown my agency had enough money in budget to keep operating. The one before that I got a 3 day paid vacation after Gingrich blinked. This time around I have gotten absolutely no guidance on what to do or when to do it-as usual my agency follows the mushroom rules of management (keep you in the dark and feed you bullsh*t). The ironic thing is that my agency just got approval to move to being fully fee funded, so by this time next year I would be immune to this crap-but for now it looks like I’m going to take a hit.
LevelB
No guidance from my Agency.
Honestly, how would you plan for this? No one knows from day to day if the shutdown will occur, or how deep any cuts will be.
Last time, I was deemed “essential” and got to sit in an empty office, unable to work without support staff.
Amanda in the South Bay
I called the VA and e-mailed them, and got the response that my post 9/11 Gi Bill benefits for the spring quarter (April 4-late June) will still be paid cause they are direct deposit. What might be worrisome is that the shutdown lasts for a long time, that could interfere with getting my Gi Bill benefits for the summer quarter, but I’m keeping my fingers crossed. I also work part time, so every little bit helps.
The question is: assuming there is a shutdown, do I blow the 2 grand I have in savings on surgery I have scheduled for late April? The surgery is really important (not life threatening, but would be rather nice to have). Ack, I am a ball of anxiety.
PIGL
Perhaps after a long enough without pay, some armoured division or other will encircle the Senate and House, saying:
“Get you gone and give place to honest men.”
Nellcote
Here’s a 2001 CRS report on what happened in 95/96:
http://www.ncseonline.org/nle/crsreports/government/gov-26.pdf
“Effects on Federal Staffing. An immediate and critical shutdown effect is the
furloughing (placing in a temporary, non-duty, non-pay status) of federal employees.
Exempted from furloughs are presidential appointees, Members of Congress, uniformed
military personnel, and federal employees rated “essential.” “Essential” employees,
required to work during a shutdown, are those performing duties vital to national defense,
public health and safety, or other crucial operations. Shutdown furloughs are not
considered a break in service and are generally creditable for retaining benefits and
seniority. Also, federal employees who have been affected by the shutdown have received
their salaries retroactively.”
Essential services/personnel defined at the link.
Woodrowfan
My wife is a govie. We have about a month’s pay set aside and I still get my small paychecks for teaching part time….
Gawd I hate republicans. fuckers
Mike in NC
The big winner if the government shuts down? Newt Gingrich. He’ll pop up in front of every microphone he can find and demand the GOP stand firm, no matter what. He’ll also apologize for caving back in the day when he was Speaker and it’ll make him the new teabag movement leader and Republican frontrunner for 2012.
Phoenician in a time of Romans
@Yevgraf (fka Michael):
I dream that Obama would have the balls to shut down government spending sequentially through the States, totally shutting down everything in the reddest States first.
Xenos
Now that airport security has been federalized, would the airports remain open in case of a shutdown? I can’t remember what happened in the 90s, and in any case, that may not be the best guide.
Cain
@John PM:
THat’s a good point. Isnt most of Arizona all private prisons? If they are “for profit” and there is a govt shutdown, will the state be able to pay for these prisons?
Tlazolteotl
For all of those talking about RIFs or other big reductions in federal staff after a shutdown, just remember that RIFs have to be authorized by and act of Congress. In other words, they have to pass legislation to do it. The last time Congress actually authorized any RIFs was during the Reagan administration.
Also, about back pay? We will get it. There are a lot of feds in each and every state. A lot of them even vote Republican. If they end up not getting paid, a lot of people in the House and the Senate are not going to get re-elected.
I have some savings and will be okay, but we have some people on contract who are not going to get paid for any time off, no matter what Congress decides. One of them is young and an excellent worker, and probably needs the money a lot more than any other of my colleagues.
We are carrying on our work as if nothing is going to happen, but are considered “non-essential” (every agency has a list of who is or is not essential; we have one person designated to come in and keep our instrumentation going); so if there is a shutdown all but one or two people from our group will be furloughed.
Tlazolteotl
Many services, such as airport screening, the mail, VA hospitals, and suchlike, are considered essential services and will not shut down. I imagine most of the TSA will keep working. Not sure about Federal courts, but they are keeping the SEC going, so probably the courts will also.
WaterGirl
@Amanda in the South Bay: “Ack, I am a ball of anxiety.” What a great description of a really crappy place to be. I was in what felt like an impossible situation last year where the only thing that would have helped is having a crystal ball so I could know which direction things were going to go. I thought my head would explode.
i finally kept my sanity by making all the preparations for both of the conflicting things at the same time, knowing that they were in direct conflict with one another, but moving the ball along on both until some questions were answered by events as they played out.
I wish you well!
Original Lee
My spouse’s agency maintains a 3-month hedge due to the sensitive nature of his work. Theoretically he will still have to go in to work and will still get paid unless the shutdown lasts longer than 3 months. However, there has apparently been some discussion about the debt ceiling, because some of the agency lawyers think that unless the debt ceiling is raised, checks will be written as the IRS clears tax payments and that Treasury has some kind of priority list for the order in which the checks get written. Therefore paychecks might get a little spotty. I have no idea what this means for tax rebates.
My job is with a private company (not a contractor) but quite a lot of our customers are federal government agencies, so I could be looking at a little furlough action. We have some savings, so personally we would probably be OK for a while, but we’d have to cancel some major expenditures (such as a new air conditioner), which naturally will have a negative trickle-down effect.
Tom Hilton
As I understand it, it isn’t just people who work for the government who lose out. Checks don’t get sent. A lot of people who rely on Social Security, disability, etc. get screwed. As in, not getting a check.
My girlfriend is on disability. For our sake, I just hope the shutdown doesn’t last into May.
Amanda in the South Bay
@Tom Hilton:
I think it’ll make a difference if her check is direct deposited rather than mailed.
LGRooney
@Comrade DougJ: Four-Mile Run has some nice grilling and chilling areas that are kid-friendly, and next to doggie parks.
MarkJ
I’m a Fed, and the guidance we got from my Agency prior to March 4 is: we were told not to work if the government was shut down. As in – it is in some sense illegal for you to work, so you can’t work from home, can’t come into the office, and shouldn’t even really monitor email.
I’ll be living on savings, which thanks to a frugal lifestyle, I have enough of to keep me going for several months, although I’d rather not burn through my life savings because Republicans are assholes. I’ll probably use the free time to update my resume and start looking for a new job.
My big concern is – do I still have health insurance, and for how long if the shut-down drags on? Not sure how that works.
ExFed
I’m a contractor and wife’s a Fed. We will be fine because I’m a retired CSRS Fed with a good retirement. I doubt the Feds will get the back pay like last time. That would not sell well for all those that say we need to save dollars and Feds are over paid anyway.
Push come to shove I think the Dems win the battle of whose fault this was. Shutting down the Government is a pretty drastic option even if they get all their $40M of cuts when the deficit is in the Trillions.
Jeff
I’m a DoD civilian employee and I’m not considered mission essential so I’ll be sent home if there’s a shut down. I honestly don’t know what I’ll do. I pretty much, like everyone else I know, live paycheck to paycheck. I have some savings that will keep me afloat for a short time but an extended shutdown will sink me. These people are playing politics with people’s lives and it makes me sick. I don’t feel sorry for what will happen to the republicans in 2012 if they go forward with their threat.
Lisa
I’m a fed who was present for the last shut down. We did get paid, eventually, and it caused problems for some people because the delayed salary pushed them into a higher tax bracket when it was added to their paychecks.
Of course, it was a relief to get the salary in the end.
As I recalll, when you returned to work depended on when your agency’s appropriations bill was approved by Congress. So the amount of time off varied among federal workers.
Lisa
If there is a shutdown, it will begin on a Friday. That is a good thing because it gives Congress two weekend days to negotiate and hopefully come to an agreement before opening of business on Monday. Of course many feds work on weekends, but the bulk of us are M – F.
Optional
I think there’s no question Republicans will be the ones perceived as responsible for the shut-down. For one thing, it just makes sense to people that small/anti government Republicans would be willing, eager to shut down government, whereas it makes no sense at all that big/pro government Democrats would be willing to shut down government.
This is the natural result of 30 years of Republican propoganda.
The battle, then, is going to be whether people “blame” Republicans for an unnecesary shutdown, or “credit” Republicans with a totally necessary shutdown.
That is going to swing on whether or not people see that there are very real and very dire consequences to a shutdown. And in that, I think, the media will be sort of involuntarily on our side, because this will give them a perfect chance to report on a bunch of horrib le stuff going down. They live for that stuff.
I think a shutdown would work in the Democrats favor, no question at all to me. And, I think the Republican leadership is perfectly well aware of that. So, now the only question is whether or not they have the balls to stand up to the tea party types.
-me