Quite honestly, I never expected this:
The United Nations and France went on the offensive Monday against Ivory Coast’s strongman, Laurent Gbagbo, striking targets at his residence, his offices and at least one of his military bases in a significant escalation of the international intervention into the political crisis engulfing the nation.
France, which showed a newfound muscularity by championing military strikes against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s forces in Libya, attacked heavy artillery and armored vehicles at Mr. Gbagbo’s residence and presidential offices, two centers of his power, a French military spokesman said Monday night.
The United Nations said it had also launched helicopter strikes against Mr. Gbagbo’s forces on at least one of his bases, to prevent them using from the kinds of heavy weapons that have been aimed at civilians and United Nations personnel during the crisis.
The international attacks coincided with a renewed assault by local troops loyal to Mr. Gbagbo’s rival, Alassane Ouattara, the man recognized by the United Nations, the African Union and other international bodies as the winner of last year’s presidential election.
With the attacks underway, Mr. Ouattara’s prime minister declared Monday that Mr. Gbagbo’s rule was now only hours away from ending.
“Our forces have made significant advances,” the prime minister, Guillaume Soro, said in a telephone interview. “In a few hours it will be all over. We came into the city of Abidjan today, and I think it will soon be finished.”
I thought we (THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY) would have UN forces on the ground idly standing by documenting the atrocities. This is somewhat surprising.
JPL
What will Pat Robertson say?
kdaug
I think there’s been some quiet whispering from Obama – behind the scenes – to the effect of “We ain’t the world’s goddamn policemen. You got a problem? Handle it yourself. Our hands are full.”
Roger Moore
Now that the UN has proven that it’s capable of blowing up brown people, do you think it will get some respect from wingnuts? Does this mean that the French are more than just cheese eating surrender monkeys?
Baud
France reads Balloon Juice. Who knew?
joe from Lowell
All right, lefties, NOW can we have a conversation about humanitarian intervention? Or are we going to pretend that this is just France acting as Obama’s cat’s paw as he expands the Empire?
There are really hard questions related to the use of force by the international community in response to humanitarian crises. It would be nice of the left edge of the spectrum would face them instead of coming up with excuses not to.
Quicksand
To honor this new awesome French commitment to liberty and democracy, I suggest we re-christen “french fries” as “freedom fries”!
General Stuck
OH, I don’t know. Maybe Obama’s style of not big footing our allies like the wingnuts in their American Exceptionalism froth, might have given France the spark of an equal partner in all this shit. Just a thought. You can’t expect people to act independently to do the right thing unless you empower them more as equals. Or someone could be spiking their cheese with a serving of spinach.
Of course, Lindsay Graham and Grandpa McCain are going to have to double down on the little blue pills to keep an Uncle Sam erection going. Probly a dumptruck of blue pills for Graham.
The Dangerman
“Why intervene in Libya when there isn’t any intervention in the
Ivory CoastYemen?”Mnemosyne
@joe from Lowell:
I’m guessing the answers you get will fall under #2, complete with conspiracy theories. Hoping to be wrong so there can be some actual discussion, but I’m not optimistic.
MattR
@joe from Lowell:
Just once, I want to see the “obots” or “professional left” admit that people on their side have not been arguing with perfect logic and decorum.
MobiusKlein
@joe from Lowell: ‘the left’ is not a coherent mass. Some of the hard core San Francisco left had a protest – US out of Haiti a week or two after the earthquake that devastated the island.
I felt sick seeing that. Puts a loony reputation on the sane anti war lefties.
(Was only small – 10-20 folks)
Roger Moore
@General Stuck:
I would strongly encourage Graham and McCain to eat those blue pills by the handful, along with any other Republican Senator who has trouble getting a hard on after this. It would be even better if Justices Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Kennedy joined them in their blue pill scarfing. Of course
a fatalan unsafe drop in blood pressure might ensue, but I’m willing for them to take that risk.Hawes
I guess all that Sturm und Drang in this weekend’s thread was for naught. I may have said (in my MIND) that we didn’t exactly jump into Libya quickly – it took about three weeks and only when catastrophe seemed imminent. So Cote D’Ivoire seems to fall into the same category of:
A) Awful mess
B) Holy shit! What are they doing?
C) UN intervention
Potentially, and I’m not making a prediction, a UN that can function the way HW Bush and Clinton were hoping in the ’90s could take over the “World’s Policeman” role and we could become the “World’s SWAT team” which is cooler and has that awesome song.
http://www.televisiontunes.com/S.W.A.T..html
singfoom
@joe from Lowell: Fair enough. It’s a really fucked up dynamic. I feel like the spectrum goes from “Machivellian Realpolitik” where we do whatever is in our best interest regardless of the human results and “World’s Policeman”. I don’t want either extremes.
I think we can find a middle ground where we help out in situations like this in a multilateral framework done with the armed forces of multiple countries.
My two cents is that I would support most interventions with the caveat that we should give agency to those people with the moral high ground in any situation.
What that agency consists of, I’m not sure. Breathing room to create a military force to fight it out?
I’m uncomfortable with training/arming rebel armies straight up. It blew up in our faces after Afghanistan and the Soviets.
I think the best possible framework would be a much militarily stronger UN force with the ability to defend those in harms way while also having the rules of engagement allow pursuit/offensive operations.
One thing I’m sure of is the US (and the rest of the international community) should use the lightest touch possible.
WaterGirl
@The Dangerman: Hat trick.
Kmeyer the lurker
Ivory Coast is a former French colony. They have strong ties, and a large immigrant community in France. If anyone should take the helm on this (which is a very debatable question) it should be them.
joe from Lowell
@singfoom: All good insights.
But they seem to be focused on the “how” of intervention, and the questions of “why” and “when” would seem to be prior.
AxelFoley
Damn, the UN ain’t fuckin’ around. Think we could get them to drop some shells on the wingnuts in this country?
Roger Moore
@Hawes:
I really like the “world’s policeman” vs. “world’s SWAT team” comparison. I think that’s going to have to go into my list of good analogies to bring out in discussions like this.
Tim F.
Um, not to sound like a crazy person or anything, but if we lower the threshold enough for this sort of thing it starts looking like new world order shit. Well-intentioned or not we don’t just want to arbitrate-by-JDAM other country’s disputes wherever natural resources or proximity to Europe dictate (Cote d’Ivoire grows something like forty percent of the world’s cocoa). Just saying.
MikeJ
@kdaug: I hope you’re right. It would be true and the right thing to say.
I think in years past the US told people that nobody should play if the US isn’t along to score some goals of their own. Better now to have others doing more of the lifting.
singfoom
@joe from Lowell: Why? Because human beings have rights that are independent of those granted to them by the nation states they live in. Because we have the power to help. All of the above, I think.
When? I think that’s situational…but I would hazard, “Before it’s too late…”
joe from Lowell
@Baud:
Probably not, but as each round of ordinance from a European aircraft strikes one of Gbagbo’s artillery pieces or dug-in gunmen, I’m going tell myself that Joe Beese and JSF helped make it happen. Just because.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Tim F.:
Can we wait to see if France will save us from Republican ruin?
Comrade Luke
If I were to predict anything, it would be a leak that “sources in the administration are concerned about France’s newfound shows of force, and how they might influence the balance of power within NATO as well as the international community”.
US politicians and the military will bitch and moan about “old Europe”, but the fact of the matter is that if they see something that conflicts with their self-image of the big swinging dick in the world they’ll perceive it as a threat.
Mnemosyne
@Tim F.:
I don’t know that the threshold actually needs to be lowered. The UN has had peacekeepers in Cote d’Ivoire working under a UN resolution since 2003, so to me this seems to be more a response to a deteriorating situation than France cowboying in because they can.
I don’t disagree with the principle, I just think there’s a slightly different question in play here: how do you determine what level of UN assistance you give a country? Is there a point at which the UN has to give up?
General Stuck
@Tim F.:
This is a good point, but in cases where we, the west have been tinkering for decades in these countries, either by direct colonial occupations, or economic imperialism like we are most prone to, as well as backing with US dollars autocrats for the sake of stability, I think it is warranted, to at least even the playing field and prevent massacres, often with weapons purchased with western cash.
edit – and like Mnem is saying under the involvement and supervision of the UN.
Calouste
@Kmeyer the lurker:
France has long seen its former colonies in Africa as its backyard, and has been intervening there regularly.
joe from Lowell
@Comrade Luke:
You think? I certainly know the mindset you’re talking about. I recall reading a piece in National Review a few years ago in which they freaked out about the EU talking about raising some kind of force. It was jarring, given how much hot air they expend complaining about Europe relying on American military.
But do you think the Obama administration is thinking along those lines? I’ve never seen an American president go along with other NATO countries before, like Obama seems to have done with Libya. I think Obama is at the other end of the spectrum.
Just Some Fuckhead
We should assign a first world country to each third world country. In exchange for protection from the first world country, the third world country will supply cheap immigrant labor to the first world country.
Not sure what to do with the second world countries. Maybe put ’em on the buddy system or just ignore them until they become third world countries.
Angry Black Lady
i see what you did there.
singfoom
@Just Some Fuckhead: I’m too lazy to look this up, but what if the numbers don’t line up?
No one likes being the last kid on the playground picked for a team.
If the numbers end up being odd, you’d have a country with no buddy.
And that’s just no way for the country buddy system to work.
Angry Black Lady
@joe from Lowell: i think it would be more fun to have another 400+ thread of the usual suspects letting our/their obot freak flag fly, while the other usual suspects talk about obama-related fellatio.
sound good?
cathyx
The headline to this post needs to be fixed.
Warren Terra
Seems to me, as someone who’s not terribly well informed (listened to the stories on the BBC and the CBC, and probably on NPR, but not so very much) that the French – who after all are the former colonial powers and have a long history of meddling in their former colonies – waited until the situation was almost over and intervened to end it cleanly. I’m glad they did it, but I note that they didn’t intervene when it was a matter of amorphous mobs or jungle warfare; I don’t think intervention at such a time would have been possible, short of an actual ground invasion. And I hardly think that bombing Gbagbo three months ago, before there was a Ouattara army on his doorstep, would have been useful either. Even with the best intentions in the world, if you’re going to avoid quagmires you have to chose your moments and methods carefully, to leverage an existing dynamic.
And since someone upthread referred to Yemen, it’s worth noting that Obama has basically asked for an Egypt solution, i.e. the deposition of the President and imposition of a military government, so as to retain maximal power of the most closely US-aligned body while giving the protesters their scalp. It’s not clear whether it will work (also not clear in Egypt, etill), but it’s a rational approach that at least cosmetically combines our professed ideals and our coldly calculated interests.
Angry Black Lady
@Just Some Fuckhead: i hope we pick india. in 20 years, i think it would be pretty fun to spend the summer picking samosa trees in the blistering heat.
singfoom
@Angry Black Lady: Hey, we do that every day. Just this once, can’t it be different?
Just Some Fuckhead
@Angry Black Lady: Sorry, we already got Israel. :(
Mnemosyne
@The Dangerman:
U.S. Shifts to Seek Removal of Yemen’s Leader, an Ally
But but what about Bahrain? If we’re not bombing Bahrain, that means we’re letting them get away with it!
Angry Black Lady
@cathyx: fixed on cole’s behalf.
@singfoom: to dream the impossible dream…
Corner Stone
I’m not sure I understand. Does this have some bearing on the US’s involvement in the world?
MikeJ
@joe from Lowell:
Does Côte d’Ivoire[1] export oil? It’s always more fun when the people can yell about that.
No blood for chocolate!
[1] Officially, the English name for Côte d’Ivoire is Côte d’Ivoire. They don’t like to have it xlated.
General Stuck
With all these revolts in so many countries lately, it occurred to me with a McCain/Palin presidency, it would be good news for The Apocalypse. A wingnut fundie lament for an opportunity gone to hell.
Roger Moore
@Just Some Fuckhead:
Israel isn’t third world, so they can’t be our third world client. I agree that India would be a good one for the US and vice versa. After all, what other first world country has the resources to deal with India?
Just Some Fuckhead
@Roger Moore: India isn’t third world either. And we’re already stuck with Israel. We don’t have to like it.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Corner Stone: Apparently we are all PNAC’ers now. Bloody Bill Kristol has won.
MikeJ
@Roger Moore:
I’ll keep an eye on Poonam Pandey.
Maude
@Mnemosyne:
No, no, no, no, Syria before Bahrain.
Citizen Alan
@joe from Lowell:
Well, I don’t have time for a conversation because I’m about to head out to eat, but as someone who bitched about the Libya/IC dichotomy (if that’s the right word in this instance), I’m happy to say “good for France.” And if Obama played a role in getting France and the UN to step up, good for him too.
General Stuck
@Maude:
Multiple civil wars raging around the world, and the wingnuts at home threatening, and likely to shut down the US government next week.
As General Cao Ky once said, “now who wants to be President today?”
Calouste
@MikeJ:
Is there any evidence that Miss Pandey kept her promise?
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
A quick Google turned up this.
OzoneR
@MikeJ:
They have plenty of oil reserves off the coast that have yet to be tapped. When we mentioned this yesterday, those “war for oil” folks were trying to debunk that fact. I guess now they’ll suddenly discover it’s true.
salacious crumb
as long as we are being consistent, and this time we are truly pursuing a megalomaniacal tyrant, im down with this.
arguingwithsignposts
Would anyone care to riddle me this: is it possible Sarkozy is using this to up his poll numbers? Just curious.
Maude
@General Stuck:
On today’s version of morning drive time Rightie Radio, the Republicans should shut down the government because the cuts aren’t large enough. Oh, and if people get hurt, well too bad.
The Repubs are so awful that I can’t even describe them anymore. I have said before that I don’t think Boehner wants his name on a shutdown. It costs to shut down and re open and that raises the deficit, but the press hasn’t seemed to be able to point that out.
Catzmaw
I don’t think most Americans appreciate the very deep ties which exist between France and West Africa, particularly the Ivory Coast. I lived in another francophone West African country in the 80s, Benin, and Cote d’Ivoire was the flagship for French/West African trade and cultural influence. Many young French doctors and engineers and other professionals were going to West Africa in those days to fulfill their national service obligations and Cote d’Ivoire was considered the plum assignment of the bunch. People went on vacation from Benin, Togo, and Senegal to Cote d’Ivoire, and if one needed advanced medical care and couldn’t get to France in time then the default position was to Abidjan.
In other words, this French intervention under NATO’s auspices has nothing to do with Obama and everything to do with this special relationship. Americans are SO solipsistic it never occurs to us that not every international incident going on in the world is about us.
WaterGirl
@arguingwithsignposts: Yes. But i hope that’s not the reason.
4tehlulz
NO BLOOD FOR NESTLE
Maude
@arguingwithsignposts:
Partly and France does have a long history that we don’t. There are at times when France carries the weight of earlier foreign adventures. The US has not got this, look at the Repubs trying to rehab Bush.
Edit, brain death
Just Some Fuckhead
@Maude:
They’re still hung up on 30 billion dollars, right? Which is a little less than the amount we’ll spend on our Wars of Imperial Glory from March 18th, when they passed the current Continuing Resolution until April 8, when it expires.
Catzmaw
Y’all have to understand, even the currency was always linked together, at least before the European Union came along. In the 80s the exchange rate was 50 West African (called CFA) francs for every French franc, so the French franc actually propped up all the West African countries and kept them from going down the tubes entirely during the great Sahel drought which decimated so many other countries. As Liberia and Sierra Leone lurched toward chaos and Chadian refugees fleeing famine, drought, and war migrated to the coast the French West African countries maintained a degree of stability.
Bob Loblaw
Whatevs. It just goes to show that it is still possible for a nation’s elite to be humiliated into action these days.
Sarko and his cabinet were up to all kinds of shit with the Tunisian regime and they got busted. Now they’re Great and Noble Defenders of Liberty and Democracy for All to compensate. So it goes.
That Tunisian fruit peddler stirred up all kinds of hurricanes.
Fifi
I don’t think France’s action has much to do with the UN or anything such.
The fact was that there was a modus vivendi between France on one side and both Gbagbo and Ouattara on the other side. More or less, France would not engage its forces on either side and would remain neutral as long French citizens and interests in Ivory Coast were left alone and safe. The point was that France would not tolerate a repeat of the 2004 events. It pretty much held well but Gbagbo’s out of control thugs broke that “agreement” in the past couple of days and France is sending Gbagbo the bill, one rocket at a time.
stuckinred
NCAA Championship thread?
General Stuck
@Catzmaw:
Thanks for the background info on these countries. No, I don’t think it really is about Obama in a controlling sense either way. But being treated as an equal and capable ally, I suspect, but don’t know, may have had something to do with giving the French some confidence in taking military actions against their usual reservations of such.
Comrade Luke
@joe from Lowell:
I don’t think Obama is, necessarily. But between ex-Bushies and military types, I can see that kind of leak coming from “the administration”.
Keith G
Who is “We”, kemo sabe?
stuckinred
@Keith G: Or, what you mean we White Man?
Felanius Kootea (formerly Salt and freshly ground black people)
Increasingly desperate as Ouattara’s forces drew closer to Abidjan, Gbagbo accused France of planning a genocide in Cote d’Ivoire (his favorite tactics are to link Ouattara to France and claim he’s a puppet or shout that Ouattara is actually a citizen of Burkina-Faso, US birther-style). Some of Gbagbo’s men began to target French citizens and the French aren’t having any of that.
Maude
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I think it is $30 billion. The military budget doesn’t count for the Repubs. The Rightie guy said they should cut $100 billion.
Bob Loblaw
@joe from Lowell:
You’ve never seen a President have to beg like a dog to keep the NATO alliance going in Afghanistan either. Hardly an irrelevant consideration. Everything is connected.
@Warren Terra:
I’m going to assume that occasionally bombing Yemenis with impunity in our grand war on terror is one of those coldly calculated interests, and not a professed ideal, right?
There are all sorts of legitimate arguments to be made about the righteousness of US actions in the last three months in Egypt and Libya. There are none to be made regarding Yemen. Dumping Saleh is just exchanging one pliant thief for another.
gex
As a friend noted on facebook: 5 of the permanent members on the Security Council are also the top 5 weapons manufacturers. The MIC has gone global.
AAA Bonds
Yeah, well, they had to, because of Libya and because of the government’s movement against French citizens. Otherwise, they’d look like jackasses. Sorry if that sounds cynical, because it’s true.
Still hoping the United Nations will break up and fade away, because I’m now convinced it’s never going to grow into the world federation that we need to address these problems, and is perhaps the #1 hindrance to its planning and creation.
Tax Analyst
@singfoom:
Well, not that I’m endorsing this suggestion, because I haven’t even taken a moment to think it through, but the logical “2nd-tier nation” move in your suggested scenario would be for the lot of them to form an overall alliance. Then the ones whose interest align most closely to each other would have primary “protectorate” responsibilities to each other.
Of course, this suggestion already has 10,000+ holes in it just on the face of it, especially since there would be no way to ensure that “buddy country B” would necessarily leap into action to assist “buddy country A” in any particular situation. So I’m really just sending more smoke up a chimney-to-nowhere.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Maude: I’m just saying Republicans are trying to trim the same amount we set on fire in mere days with permawar.
AAA Bonds
It’s pretty funny to see American liberals all confused when France pushes its weight around in Africa under a conservative leader.
The endless virtue of Sarkozy! Let us sing his praises!
You do realize that he is posturing to get the Le Pen xenophobes to believe that he is De Gaulle the Lesser? He’s pulling a Berlusconi, only with a lot more planes.
Maude
@Just Some Fuckhead:
I agree.
gex
@Just Some Fuckhead: Social spending doesn’t make them feel better about their …ahem… manhood the way war does.
AAA Bonds
@gex:
We’re talking about the people running France, right?
ruemara
@Tim F.:
So…this is about securing the world’s chocolate? an Obama secret conspiracy to co-opt coco. ooook.
Roger Moore
@Bob Loblaw:
Yeah, it’s almost as though we’re having to treat NATO as though it’s an equal alliance, rather than USA and lackeys. The wingnuts’ heads must be spinning trying to decide whether this is good because we’re blowing up darkies or bad because we’re cooperating with the Frogs.
Jamey
It’ll be stirring to see French forces raising the white flag over Gbagbo’s imperial palace!
WaterGirl
@Roger Moore:
Perfect.
singfoom
@Tax Analyst: Are you suggesting that someone might claim to be your buddy and not ACT like your buddy?
SHOCKING.
Sasha
Has anyone on the Right bitched because Obama isn’t leading the charge, disgracing the US?
Southern Beale
C’mon, John.
Everyone loves a war!
Martin
@OzoneR: They have 100 million barrels in reserves. They consume 11 million barrels per year, so that’s 9 years supply for Ivory Coast. 100 million barrels is 5 days consumption in the US and 20x what the Deepwater Horizon leaked into the Gulf. 100 million barrels has a market value of $10 billion. A single offshore rig costs upwards of $3 billion.
Anyone think we’re willing to go to war for oil reserves that would barely cover the cost of extraction and is worth less than the federal subsidy for any one US oil company?
Tax Analyst
@singfoom: Yeah, I hear it’s happened once or twice in the course of history.
General Stuck
@WaterGirl:
I suspect their focus is fixated on one darkie in particular, and blowing up his reelection, and it is the EVERYTHING, and I mean everything, that revolves around the molten core of their lizard brains right now.
Martin
@Roger Moore: Haven’t you heard? The French are and have always been the USs greatest ally and are vastly more patriotic toward America than even Democrats are.
Oh, the US has called for leadership change in Yemen. Apparently nobody thinks that the Obama administration is capable of shifting positions in response to facts and diplomacy. He’s just like Bush!
stuckinred
@General Stuck: You’ve been reading FDL again huh?
General Stuck
@stuckinred:
LOL, right wing blogs, same difference.
John W.
I’ve been live blogging this all day, and I’m still stunned that the UN as a body stood up for itself. Ban Ki-Moon asked the French to take action.
That’s when everything changed. Without that , we would’ve seen a weeks long battle that may never have ended. Outright taking sides and going after Gbagbo personally, there’s a lot of problems with it (blowback anyone?) but in terms of saving people from dying, it was probably the best move. But … yeah, I don’t think anyone thought the UN had it in them to fight back when they’re being shot.
stuckinred
@General Stuck: Jesus, I’ve been outa there for over a year and I post one smart ass comment and folks are all “hey man, how ya doin?”!
John W.
Oh and the crazies are gonna rally around Gbagbo now. An evangelical taking on the UN and a Muslim who’s accused of being from a foreign country?
Sure, Gbagbo’s black, but they’ll talk themselves into thinking he’s a martyr, mark my words. The really crazy ones already have.
The irony is that the International Committee of the Fourth International also is pro gbagbo, so in this case, Pat Robertson, James Inhofe, Jean-Marie Le Pen (my personal favorite) and of course Glenn Beck are allied with the Communists.
With friends like this, I have no idea why anyone would reasonably oppose UN action here.
Calouste
@gex:
Duh: It’s been that way ever since the PRC replace Taiwan on the Security Council. The permanent sets were handed out to the major winners of WWII, and winning a war requires some military might.
Double Duh: The 5 permanent members are all in the top 10 economies in the world, and out of the other 5, 3 of them were not allowed much of an arms industry after WWII.
There are reason why Luxembourg is not a permanent member of the security council.
Roger Moore
@Martin:
No, I hadn’t heard that the French are once again our BFF. I just can’t keep up with what the wingnuts believe right now, since it changes faster than I can process information. I wouldn’t think it would be difficult to be more patriotic than a Democrat, though. All it requires is believing that the USA is no more than the second worst country in the history of the world and that there is something bad happening somewhere that isn’t our fault.
John W.
By the way, he posted 100 times today but Sullivan didn’t find time to mention this situation once.
Omnes Omnibus
I can’t believe no one has posted this yet.
Ivan Ivanovich Renko
I’m in India RIGHT NOW, and no, this ain’t no third world country. This here’s the worlds largest democracy. They’re poor on a per-capita basis right now, but TRUST ME ON THIS, they’re working on it hard. AND they’re buying equipment from my company, so there’s that.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
@Ivan Ivanovich Renko:
I think you- and a few others here- missed ABL’s joke: That in 20 years, we’ll be the third world country and India will be the first world country.
toondeef
Mr. Cole
There is no surprise in the French disciplining Gbagbo. A few things that might help explain:
Ivory Coast is culturally French at administrative levels– that is, most Ivory Coast politicians have gone to French universities and operate in frenchified fashion. The school system is French from primary school on up, and part of the French metropolitan school system. Of course this is laid on top of mysterious indigenous cultures that you or I could never possibly understand.
Since independence and before, by far the most powerful military in Ivory Coast has been the French garrison. It always seemed obvious that a single truckload of the hard-ass French paras you would occasionally see in the south could pretty much wipe out any Ivorian force on either side. Until not so long ago the Ivorian army was basically an agricultural operation, guys not good for anything else, growing yams and doing Boy Scout drills.
The French have been regulating the country as a semi-partitioned state for about ten years now. Early during the division some east-European contract pilots working for southern forces bombed and killed some French in Bouaké, the second city, and the French Air Force destroyed the Ivorian Air Force on the ground. As I remember, the RCI air force consisted of two fighters. Sort of tells you how useful a no-fly zone would be.
Sure, there’s always some oil around, but the real wealth in Côte d’Ivoire is good cacao, bad coffee, and forest products, and it’s all bankrolled by the French, and Swiss I guess because there’s lots of Nestlé involvement. Up until a few years ago most business was actually administered by in-country French, but they’ve apparently almost all left since Gbagbo’s goons got unruly.
Gbabgo is a Guéré name and Ouattara is a Senoufo name. Neither tribe is huge, but they are dominant in their areas. The Guéré are forest people from the southwest, strong in magic and dark ritual and not generally gracious in interpersonal communication, and the Senoufo are people of the savannah, strong in music and dance and generally of sunny disposition. Guéré and Senoufo are as un-alike as people can be. Yeah, this is racism, or tribism, or call it recognition of cultural differences of the sort that leaves people slashing at one another with machetes.
I’m not sure what part this plays in the mess, but I would naturally expect a Guéré president to eventually piss everyone off and get in trouble. The actual largest ethnicity, the Baoulé, do not seem to be clearly aligned with either side, but their home country has been in rebel hands since the start so I think they probably generally lean toward Ouattara and ensure that he has the widest popular support, which is why he won the election.
The US doesn’t know jack about Côte d’Ivoire and is wise to stay away from involvement there. Once in town up north an embassy political officer rolled in to find out whatever he could from the few Americans living there. He spotted a white guy on a mobylette and followed him home assuming he was an American and bearded him to get the scoop. Turned out the guy was a German school-teacher and he was pissed. So that’s how much the CIA knows about the place. Essentially nothing. What they did know they generally had backassward.
Hope this helps. Essentially, the French have been doing UN operations in RCI for a long time, but they’re not really UN operations. It’s more like the US intervening in, say, Nicaragua, except that Nicaragua was never part of the USA the way Ivory Coast was part of France.
El Cid
It’s not whether or not French / UN / AU forces were “serious”.
You have a point at which the Ouattara forces are poised for victory. The likelihood of Gbagbo falling was overwhelming.
A massive intensification of intervention at this point was not only an ideal opportunity, but is pretty much required if the French & UN forces were ever to have been taken seriously.