I’m skeptical there will be a government shut down because I can’t see how either side would want one.
Here’s a question: let’s say the Democrats win that judicial race in Wisconsin today and that there is huge turn-out. Everyone will know that Wisconsin Republican overreach drove those numbers. Would a result like this influence House Republicans’ thinking about a shutdown?
Cacti
Not likely.
They’ll blame ACORN and the losing judge for not being wingnutty enough.
eemom
why do you persist in ascribing logical reasoning to persons who deny its existence?
Efroh
@eemom:
Ha, I was just going to say this. These people have shown they don’t really understand concepts like cause and effect.
Poopyman
No.
I wish all the questions were this easy.
JCT
Thinking? You’re giving them too much credit. Really — these guys are acting like a bunch of over-amped metal heads. They think that they have “won” every contest so far, the concept of a Pyrrhic victory is entirely lost on them.
burnspbesq
Not bloody likely. It will be dismissed on some specious ground like voter fraud.
This is a sideshow, in any event. Anything that distracts or detracts from creating a coalition to defeat Ryan’s frontal assault on Medicare and Medicaid is to be avoided if possible.
geg6
No. They’re practically salivating at the thought.
Sociopaths, every single one.
AR
It’s very simple.
Republicans will cause a government shutdown when all their demands aren’t met, then will immediately begin blaming Democrats for it. When public services collapse due to the shutdown, they will use this as evidence that the government can’t do anything right, and thus those programs hurt by the shutdown must be cut.
Reality is for sissies after all.
Punchy
Wow are you obtuse. You assume, of course, that the media will report on this Dem victory. They wont. You assume that the Dems will win this without illegal voters, voter fraud, Acorn, abortions, and underage illegal fraudulent aborted illegals, which they wont. According to the Tea Party, whose most inane and obscene ramblings must be reported as fact. You assume that Sullivan will care enough to make some dumb comment somewhere that you and Cole and Sir Mix-a-lot will link to. He wont.
So nothing will be noticed.
theconstituent
Just talked to a friend of mine who is a Republican staffer, and he’s fully expecting a shutdown. Right now the debate among staffers seems to be over who is going to be considered “essential personnel” and allowed to stay on- Lungren (Chairman of House Administration Committee) is apparently sending out guidelines for support staff later today.
jibeaux
The Republicans will blame an unholy SEIU – ACORN alliance, with THUGS!!, and double down. “Overreach” ain’t in their vocabulary, only the concept of insufficient purity. In other words, ditto what everyone else said.
PopeRatzy
Really, Doug?
Trolling a little early with that one, aren’t you?
Rosalita
This
even if it did I doubt it will make any difference.
James K Polk, Esq.
SATSQ.
No.
eemom
Just read somewhere that the creatures are distributing a “Government Shutdown Instruction Manual” to all the congressional republicans.
Comrade Javamanphil
I shake my Magic 8 ball and the revealed answer to your question is…”HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!”
JGabriel
DougJ:
If Republicans think, it would; but since Republicans don’t think — they feel with their gut — it probably won’t.
.
Tim I
The tea party types are the ones who want a shutdown. They are idiots without any moral compass. Boener is scared shitless about the political damage inflected by a shutdown, but he is more afraid of the tea party.
This will hurt them, especially since they are introducing the Ryan insanity today, just to show how crazy they can be.
EriktheRed
No.
Zifnab
Boehner’s math will change, undoubtedly. It’s one thing to side with a Tea Party political juggernaut and a bunch of king-makers at FOX’n’Friends. But if the Tea Party can’t maintain gains for longer than a two year cycle, siding with moderate Democrats starts sounding a lot better.
And Boehner can’t have a stand-off with the Senate if he has no room to bargain in the House. “All-or-nothing!” isn’t much of a legislative strategy.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
Posting before the caffeine today, Doug?
Suffern ACE
I got a chance to catch Reince Priebus (sp) this morning on Today. Nope. The unwillingness of Democrats to cave to Republican common sense solutions is their story and they’re sticking too it. I’m sure we’ll read a lot of high Broderism this weekend from our overpaid punditry.
LosGatosCA
Palin endorsed judge defeated leads to new Teabagger strategy:
Quadrupling down. This is doubling a doubling down. Because nothing says nihilism like hitting the afterburners when a person with a double digit IQ or higher knows to hit the brakes.
It’s their most endearing characteristic.
Steve
There are, in fact, sane Republicans out there who worry about concepts like overreach. Those Republicans in Maine who wrote the op-ed against the governor are an example of the genre. But they are an increasingly rare breed.
Consider the total waxing Republicans took in the 2006 and 2008 elections. Did they seem the least bit chastised afterwards? (Bush did fire Rumsfeld in 2006 – but the Republicans in Congress basically doubled down on the crazy.) If two straight national wipeouts didn’t change their approach, one judicial election isn’t going to do it.
The thing is that Republicans have gotten so good at spinning everything as a win for their side, and in spreading those talking points far and wide, that most of them believe in their own bullsh*t by this point.
aimai
Of course there’s going to be a shutdown—there’s a point in every game of chicken where the fucking chicken has lost control of the car. We’re long past that point. Boehner doesn’t want a shut down but he doesn’t care enough, or have enough power, to prevent it. Only the Democrats can prevent it by capitulating to Republican blackmail. Obama may blink, but the Republicans won’t. Even though they could accept this compromise and strut away to slash and burn on the next round. Face matters to Republicans. It doesn’t matter to Obama (fortunately and unfortunately).
In the story of Solomon and the two mothers who both lay claim to the same baby Solomon orders the baby cut in half. The false mother, caring more about the ownership of the baby, agrees to accept half a dead child rather than sacrifice rights to the entire live child. The real mother sacrifices her rights to protect the life of the child. That’s how Solomon determines who the real mother is. He then awards the whole child to the mother who was willing to sacrifice. Republicans read that story and think “yeah! Rule or Ruin? We’ll take Ruin if we can’t get to Rule.” Obama thinks, like the good mother “a working government that is damaged by the Republican cuts is better than no government at all.” All well and good–but in the real world there’s no Solomon come to judgement to make all right by awarding the good mother full rights to her child. Instead we are waiting to see what the populus thinks of the rhetoric of both sides about the imminent shutdown. And no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American People.
aimai
aimai
Omnes Omnibus
I don’t think a Kloppenburg win today will avert a shutdown; It is too close to the deadline to make a difference. I do think, however, that those of you who suggest that it will make no difference at all are overly pessimistic. A large turnout and win for the forces of “Not Evil” would be a good thing. If there is going to be a turn around, it must begin somewhere. This particular election in Wisconsin, given the circumstances that surround it, is a good place for such a turn around to start. The question is, if Kloppenburg wins, does everyone sit on their dead asses and say that it was a one time time thing or do they get out and make sure that more progress follows?
Chris
@AR:
Basically what they’ve been doing for thirty years.
Amazing how many people realize that no political system, or any system at all, can “work” when it’s staffed by people dedicated to preventing it from doing so.
MikeJ
They say Obama performed a coup from the ballot box, that he illegally seized power merely by winning more votes. I can’t see them accepting any outcome they dislike as legitimate.
JGabriel
@Suffern ACE:
Gesundheit. A 10 day course of amoxicillin should clear that right up.
.
Paul W.
Well, first you would have to prove that there are enough House Republicans able to think before asking that. Otherwise the point is kind of moot as the majority of the caucus is on autopilot towards the end of days.
Ronc99
The corporate media does not allow for Democratic victories, unless of course, we are electing another moderate Republican *posing* as a Democrat. See Washington, DC, today!
mclaren
The Repubs want a government shutdown because it will prove to their base that they’re serious, allowing the Repubs to ignore the base and go do what they want to do (enrich the billionaires). The Demos want a government shutdown because it will prove to their base that they’re tough and will stand fast against the right-wing extremists, allowing the Demos to ignore their base and go do what they want to do (enrich the billionaires).
Omnes Omnibus
@Ronc99:
@mclaren:
Yippee, the asshole brigade has arrived.
Ronc99
Omnses as opposed to all you ObamaBots with your tongues up Obama’s asshole, of course!
aimai
@Omnes Omnibus:
I know its too early but what do you think, Omnes Omnibus? I know they were talking about 20 percent participation in this election before the entire WI situation blew up. Do the Dems have a good shot at increasing participation enough to put Kloppenberg over? I understand that just turning it from an uncompetitive to a competitive race was a really big deal but I’d really like to see her get in. And, as you say, I’d like to see it be the opening of a wave of energy.
aimai
Chuck Butcher
You are joking, right? Everyone will know what? It’s a judgeship in WI, not a Presidential election. It will be dismissed if it goes Democratic. They honestly think they were elected to do what they’re doing – damn the polls. It isn’t as though they’ve hidden this shit away from the public who, apparently, stupidly thought (per polls) that they were just kidding. (or more stupidly thought their personal ox wouldn’t get gored)
The plutocrats and their enablers know exactly what they’re doing. If this costs the GOP the House in 2012 whatever roll back occurs will be partial and they’ll have once again gained significant ground. Think that’s just plain cynicism? Check the last 30 years and get back to me.
soonergrunt
If anything, it would result in a doubling down by other wingtards and teabaggers. Some will think “it can’t happen here, because Wisconsin in unique” and others will only determine to push harder and faster.
Bulworth
Well, the latest WashPost poll on the subject says the public is split on who to blame for a shutdown.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/voters-still-split-on-blame-for-possible-shutdown/2011/04/04/AFMUiXdC_story.html
This is the equivalent of #winning for Boner and the teabags.
Judas Escargot
GOP psychology is Calvinistic and punitive: If the Dem judge wins, punishment will be required. Just as people had to be punished for voting the Black Mooslim into the Oval Office.
Punish the workers. Punish the poor. Punish the Libs. Punish punish punish.
(And yes, I realize that assuming your political opponents are mentally ill is very bad form… but when it provides such a good predictive model of their behavior, I am compelled).
Paul in KY
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): Maybe posting on hallucigens?
singfoom
When your policy objectives follow from an ideology that rejects the idea of scientific inquiry and rational truth, you don’t need no stinking logic.
A government shutdown will “show” the public that the Teabagger congresspeople are “serious” and the Democrats just being obstructive by not accepting enormous cuts that will harm the country.
But hey, free market ponies FOR EVERYONE!!!
martha
@James K Polk, Esq.: Agreed.
And if there is a shut down, I want them to shut everything down. Air traffic controllers. No checks to our military personnel. Etc. Etc. But they won’t.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
Yes, it means they will double down and destroy the country even faster.
numbskull
Hahahaha! Ho! Hee! Har! Har! Har!
Whew, man, don’t do that. Laughing that hard at my desk convinces everyone around here that they really do need to call the men in white coats.
JGabriel
@aimai:
Tell that to the producers of Battlefield Earth.
.
meh
no they’ll blame the unions for stealing the election and push harder across the board…
Paul in KY
@JGabriel: I thought that was a medical condition requiring surgery..er..’down there’.
Omnes Omnibus
@aimai:I am hopeful, but, as I live in the center of the People’s Republic of Madison, I cannot really gauge what is happening elsewhere in the state. Conditions are such that left of center voters should be more motivated. Madison and the surrounding area have two other important elections on this ballot: County Executive, which is a race between a solid liberal looking to continue the policies of the incumbent and a more or less teahadist and Mayor which is between the current mayor and a previous long term mayor (both are solid liberal/progressives and either would do a good job, IMO). I voted yesterday; there were no lines at city hall, but a steady stream of people were coming and going. My wife is going to vote on her way to class this morning; I’ll let people know if I hear reports of crowds.
jo6pac
@JGabriel:
Yep
Paul W.
@LosGatosCA:
Quoted for truth. We have yet to reach peak wingnut after all.
Roger Moore
@Judas Escargot:
I think you’re wrong about this. The Republican desire to punish people in no way depends on them losing; they’ll want to punish the same people just as hard no matter which way the election turns out.
Paul in KY
@Chuck Butcher: Good post, Cassandra ;-)
Dave
It would if the GOP members of the House were, in any way or fashion, reasonable.
But they aren’t. These are the winners of primaries dominated by Teabagger extremists. So even if the obvious lesson is for them to pull back, these assholes are incapable of doing so. If anything, they’ll become MORE aggressive and punitive.
EconWatcher
Somewhat OT, but as I was riding the metro into work this morning, I glanced at the guy standing next to me, and who do I see? None other than Norm Coleman. He glanced up and recognized that he had been recognized, but I followed my mother’s admonition (if you can’t say anything nice….)
Now he’s just another guy on a train. He looked much older and not exactly broken, but bored. I didn’t see any signs that anyone else recognized him (although in DC, it’s a badge of pride to be nonchalant).
My point? These chumps can’t get away with it forever. Their day will come.
agrippa
I expect a shutdown. The GOP has no sense at all. They are descendants of the Southern fire eaters in the run up to the Civil War.
reality means nothing.
Failure, Inc.
@aimai: The Republican story of Solomon involves the false mother stealing the baby, hiding from the king, throwing it into a blender so that no one else can have it, suing for emotional damages afterwards for deprivation of baby, and then claiming the long-ago shredded infant as a tax write off.
Valdivia
The polls right now say it can go either way but once it happens they will blame the Reps because they’re in charge. And whatever one thinks of obamas strategy he is thought of by the public at large as the reasonable one. So once the shutdown happens every day is on the Reps.
Bob Loblaw
What happened to your wish/hope dynamic? That bit of militancy was short lived.
General Stuck
Got to kill the ACA/ Am listening to some wingnut CC physician breathlessly describing how Obamacare is the great spawn of the liberal devil that
will destroy the GOP electorallywill be the end of all life on planet earth as we know it.They don’t care about anything else, as a group, than stopping the implementation of this law. It has made them utterly insane (more than usual) and impervious even to committing pol suicide by proposing to privatize medicare. Shoot first the HCR, and worry about the consequences later.
They don’t have the votes to repeal it, so just repeal the US government instead.
cmorenc
Contemplate the opposite potential outcome, that the incumbent winger judge somehow manages to squeak out a narrow win today in Wisconsin. What impact does that have on progressive / democratic assumptions about voter reaction to GOP overreach?
I’m sincerely hoping the arrogant bastard loses big, by at least ten points. However, after 2010 the dems still have to prove that enough voters who were too pissed off or indifferent to show up in 2010 will realize the stakes in off-year elections and find it important enough to take the trouble to show up in this and the upcoming recall elections.
Elia Isquire
I really, really think there’s going to be a shut down.
Boehner is having to choose between what’s good for his party and what’s good for him; a guy like him is always going to go with the latter.
Omnes Omnibus
@Chuck Butcher: It is just a judgeship in Wisconsin; that is true, but one has to start somewhere. Why not here? If everything is hopeless, why should we bother to try (aside from the existential struggle against nothingness, of course)?
Jay C
For myself, I think the Prosser/Kloppenberg contest in Wisconsin is a lot more important a deal than the bulk of the population (i.e., those outside the Left Blogosphere) might believe. A Republican defeat – good thing as that would be in and of itself, IMPO – might (and probably will) be dismissed or overlooked by the MSM – but when/if the WI recall efforts really get moving, and some GOP politico actually gets the boot, then (and only then, I think) will anyone start to pay attention.
To turn DougJ’s formulation around, I think that a Republican-inflicted government shutdown is more likely to
have an effect (in a Dem-positive way) on the recall races, rather than vice versa.
Carnacki
@aimai: Well said
Chris
@General Stuck:
Oh, I’m pretty sure they’d have found something else to freak out about. I mean, I agree, but it’s not HCR in itself that’s driven them insane, is it?
bemused
76% of americans say don’t touch Medicare. Other polls say more americans than not think the wealthy and corps are not paying their share of taxes. Yet most House Republicans are convinced that the majority of americans are in their camp.
True believers don’t back down, they double down.
Jay C
@aimai: @Failure, Inc.:
Actually, the Republican version of the story would probably have Solomon execute both women, and give the baby to one of his favorite courtiers to raise “properly” (“Classic” GOP Version)
Or: execute both women, and sell the baby to a slave-trader, and use the proceeds to “cover court costs” (“Teabag” GOP version).
Teejay
“Thinking”? There is no thinking going on here.
joe from Lowell
Lots of people thought something similar in 1914. These things take on a life of their own.
sukabi
Here’s a question: let’s say the Democrats win that judicial race in Wisconsin today and that there is huge turn-out. Everyone will know that Wisconsin Republican overreach drove those numbers. Would a result like this influence House Republicans’ thinking about a shutdown?
I’m Disappointed in you DougJ… I know you know that 1) the media ISN’T going to do any kind of analysis of the election that DOESN’T favor the repubs… 2) the election will be a refudiation of xyz (the latest strawman they make up) and 3) the House Republicans don’t think, so any changing of their minds is impossible.
adding that aimai is right… rule or ruin, should be emblazoned on their foreheads, because that’s sure become their motto.
Judas Escargot
@Roger Moore:
We don’t entirely disagree, but the difference is subtle: When they win, GOP psychology interprets this as total victory and an obvious call from “The People” to do whatever they please. Recall how GWB barely won re-election in 2004, and declared that a “mandate”.
It’s like a 2 year old who wants a cookie: the cookie is wanted, no matter the circumstances. “Me want cookie”.
The ‘reason’ is something cooked up after the fact, to justify the base impulse.
Chris
@bemused:
Argumentum ad NoTrueScotsmanum. All the Real Americans is indeed in their camp. If they weren’t in their camp, they wouldn’t be Real Americans. QED.
See their tendency to piss and moan that “oh, but without the nonwhite vote and the woman vote and the poor people vote, Democrats could never win elections.” There’s more than just sore loser petulance behind that statement.
Stooleo
@aimai:
Boy, that is it in a nutshell.
Chris
@Judas Escargot:
Also recall how he won by running on the war on terror and gay-bashing amendments, and then declared that he had a mandate to privatize Social Security.
Glen Tomkins
You need to start thinking apocalypticly. The rest of America (okay, mostly just the Right) does, time to catch up.
If Prosser loses, that would just be further proof to the teahadists that the End Times are upon us, and that they must double down on legislative Righteousness, damn the practical consequences. This World has but a short time left before it is rolled up. We know that the Antichrist must win some more battles, must be on the verge of total victory, before that very success brings the Second Coming to the battlefield of Armageddon for the final victory of Righteousness.
This is not time to compromise with the Antichrist on his budget bills of abominations (Obaminations?). This is the time to force a showdown, however much worldly people may think the Antichrist would win such an encounter. The very risk of utter defeat is sure to make this Armageddon, and we know who wins Armageddon.
Poopyman
@cmorenc: And I was thinking that if the voter turnout is much larger than expected and Prosser still manages to win — no matter how small the margin — that will feed the GOP sense of invincibility and give them impetus to go even more full-wingnut, if that’s possible.
Kirk Spencer
There-in lies your problem.
There are more than two sides. One of the sides – one that’s part of the Republican coalition – wants the shut down. They want it because they are convinced the error Gingrich made wasn’t the shutdown but that he blinked first.
They believe that if they make it painful enough everyone will yield.
And last but far from important, they believe the government we have is for the most part unnecessary and no real harm will come from the shutdown. Instead, the people of the nation will be made better by having that parasite removed from their necks.
I disagree, but that’s the core.
scav
This might provide a needed giggle as the chicken-driven clown car careens near the cliff edge with an ACME box of dynamite and anvil clearly visible in the in the trunk. David Cameron tells Pakistan: raise more tax from the rich
British PM tells Pakistan elite: ‘Many of your richest people are getting away without paying much tax at all – and that’s not fair’
bemused
@Chris:
My bad. I just plain old forgot that I and reality biased folks aren’t really true americans.
Senyordave
House Republicans’ thinking – this phrase gave me the biggest laugh I’ve had in a week.
This ranks up with the phrase “Senate Democrats’ courage”.
ericblair
@Elia Isquire:
This is my read. The GOP leadership seem to be in safe GOP seats (a little lesson for the Dems, I think). They’re in no real danger of being voted out by the Dem, but they are in danger of getting primaried by the teabaggers. They’re just warding off the bigger threat to their own asses.
As well, there’s the internecine war in Congress. Boehner comes out with deal and it goes through Congress. Win for him, but now pissed off teabagger insurrectionists. Boehner comes out with deal and it fails in house. Career-destroying loss for him. Boehner comes out with no deal. Maybe loss for GOP in general, but happy teabaggers and Boehner can try to blame them later as shit hits fan.
Worst. Congress. Ever.
Poopyman
@Kirk Spencer: Can’t disagree with you here. Now, for a real moment of sunshine, contemplate what’ll happen when they need to raise the debt limit!
patrick II
And I am skeptical about your premise. There is a group on the right that not only will not compromise, but if you do compromise will be disappointed because they actually want a shutdown. They believe that government programs are an intrusion into what should be a better, freer life and the quicker and more extreme the shutdown the sooner all of us will be shaken out of our inertia and into the shocked state needed for real change to the one true way.
You really need to read at least the first couple of chapters of Shock Doctrine along with Hoffer’s True Believer. We are approaching the edge of Milton Friedman Freedom Nirvana.
General Stuck
@Chris:
There are the usual philosophical motivators, especially with entitlements, and privatizing them. But the belligerent posturing that dismisses the long term pol cost to them and refusal to compromise from more than fair offers from dems, is arising out of their hatred and fear of the ACA. Not really some deep thinking on my part. As I am hearing about every dem pol in congress saying the same thing, and I am just repeating it here.
singfoom
Well, when Paul Ryan’s rehash of Medicare Advantage is called courageous, who knows what will happen if we have a government shutdown.
Partisans of each side will blame the other side. False equivalencies will fall like rain. The MSM will breathlessly ask “How Obama can deal with this?” or other non-directly damning questions that make clear both sides do it.
In the end, I’m sure the crazies will call it a win, stick a feather in their tri-corner hat and hate liberals some more.
Everybody loses, no one wins, and nothing changes except for a further hardening of attitudes on both sides.
I wish people would stop using our future as a football to play games with. Assholes, the lot of them.
bemused
R’s doubling down is a popular guess here today.
me
Not many people at the polls this morning, mostly old people. That isn’t all bad though because around here most old people are UAW members.
Chris
@General Stuck:
Upon further reflection:
You’re right, the ACA did send the hatred and fear over the edge and it’s probably a big part of the motivation for what they’re doing now. But it’s not because of what the ACA did, so much as because the ACA was something our side successfully passed in spite of everything they did to block it.
Our side scored a goal, they’re apoplectic about that and won’t be happy until their side’s scored one or two or more of their own goals to get even. (Privatizing Medicare would certainly accomplish that, if they can do it).
Culture of Truth
Ryan’s plan is not enough for Joe Walsh, a freshman Republican from Illinois who said he will have a “real hard time” voting for Ryan’s budget if it doesn’t erase the deficit.
Stillwater
@Culture of Truth: This is interesting. The Joe Walsh I remember would just say ‘I have accountants pay for it all’ and be done with it.
jonas
The question is whether Boehner is going to sacrifice himself on the altar of bipartisanship or on the altar of ideological radicalism. Either way he’s screwed. His teatard back bench is crying for budgetary blood. Eric Cantor would like his job if he blows this. But I think he also knows that teatard radicalism will eventually blow up in the GOP’s face once the public wises up to what they’re doing. And it’s only a matter of time before Paul Ryan’s insanity, in addition to the implications of a government shutdown, really start to piss people off, particularly the independents who swept Obama into office in 08, and put the Republicans back in in ’10. So does he take a ton of shit from the teatards right now for “caving” to Obama and still have a shot at retaining the House in ’12? Or does he go Full Teatard, shut the government down, and face the blowback from the public? Boehner was around during Newt’s little shutdown stunt in the 90’s. He remembers how well that went for his party.
Maude
@General Stuck:
And that’s what the Medicare privitizing is all about. Anything to get rid of gubmit healthcare and anything to destroy the social contract and of course, Obama.
Stillwater
@jonas: So does he take a ton of shit from the teatards right now for “caving” to Obama and still have a shot at retaining the House in ‘12? Or does he go Full Teatard,
Either way, there will be lots of tears.
Kirk Spencer
@Poopyman:
More of the same for the same reasons — made worse by the rhetoric in the house’s proposed “budget”.
“wait-what, we say we’re cutting the deficit spending. why are we raising the ceiling? waaaaaaah–noooooo”
General Stuck
@Maude:
Yup, the Ryan privatization scheme, is in practical effect the wingnut prototype alternative to the ACA, once it has been death paneled and buried in a 50 foot grave with a headstone that reads. “Deep Down, It’s Not So Bad”
Bob L
With the logic they are running under the victory would make them push harder for a shut down and to trash Social Security. These people are true believers and its getting clear 2012 the Tea Party will have less power, GOP win or lose.
Stillwater
@Maude: And that’s what the Medicare privitizing is all about.
I actually disagree with this. I think the current attack on Medicare is overdetermined by politics and a hatred of liberals and the social safety net (as you say), but also by the actual numbers: projected Medicare spending is the greatest contributor to US deficit issues over the long term. The Ryan plan courageously attempts to address long term deficit issues by not just reducing Medicare costs, but eliminating the program. That’s bold (and courageous, of course).
Snark aside, it’s actually a very easy and in fact cowardly solution to any cost overrun. Or I’ll say it this way: it takes courage to propose eliminating a program that the vast majority of voters support, but cowardly from the pov of policy and addressing what’s actually driving health care costs.
ET
Career politicos of both parties may not want a shutdown because it could have a long-term negative impact on their career, but the newly minted tea tard GOPers think it is just dandy.
Judas Escargot
@Chris:
Exactly.
“Me want cookie”.
Catsy
Objection: assumes facts not in evidence.
mclaren
@Omnes Omnibus:
With your post, yes sir, it has indeed.
russell
That’s never prevented incredibly stupid shit from happening before.
I’m calling it even odds.
eemom
fwiw, an increasing number of bobblebots are now referring to it as a PARTIAL government shutdown. Sounds like damage control to me.
AnnaN
The most recent word I heard from a co-worker who just returned from DC and is plugged into budgetary talks at a high level within our agency said that the expectation is that a shut down will occur but only for a few days.
There is also the expectation that, unlike past shutdowns, employees will not be compensated for their time off. It’a a way to lower budgetary outlay for compensation by half a billion dollars (approx).
I think the Republicans all have personality disorders and the Teabaggers are sociopaths. I just feel like slapping those assholes.
lllphd
hm. wait a sec. by repug standards, would this looming shutdown not qualify as an “economic crisis”? which should, by their (pseudoo)logic means obama can declare martial law.
first thing, sell all the repugs – to the unions; i hear they’re having a membership drive.
rikryah
they don’t care…
here comes the shutdown.
Catsy
@mclaren: You seem to have forgotten “nanny nanny boo boo” and “bounces off me and sticks to you”, without which no tu quoque retort can be considered effective.
Dennis SGMM
Govt Shuts Down as Dems Spurn GOP Budget
There, I wrote the narrative for the MSM.
Cheryl from Maryland
@AnnaN: Planning for the shutdowns over the last few months have taken up a great deal of federal employee and contractor time. Any savings from federal employee salaries from the shut down have already been spent getting ready for a shutdown, and that’s not including the costs for getting things going again.
Note to everyone planning a visit to the Smithsonian next week — we will be closed.
lllphd
is anyone here familiar with this story?
synopsis version: prosser has never been married (check him out; his interview with greta last night is a bit on the creepy side, as in – well, think of the old case he ignored as a prosecutor, if you catch my drift. so, seems this fellow justice, gableman, whose role on the court became the issue that prompted prosser’s calling the chief a bitch (still with me?)…. seems lots of madison folk believe that these guys, prosser and gableman – who have never been married, by the by, in the traditional sense – are actually, um, buddies.
ssshh, quiet in the closet.
but there you are. just found this site for WI stuff; they’re quite good, actually.
Jay in Oregon
Teabaggers compromising on a potential government shutdown? That’s what they live for.
I fully expect the most nonsensical, illogical doubling-down strategy that they can come up with.
ericblair
AP sez no deal from this morning’s meeting. Get yer I-Survived-The-Gummint-Shutdown ’11 T-shirts now, I guess.
4jkb4ia
DougJ, it doesn’t matter. They have to have a deal TODAY because of the rules they made that House members need 72 hours to read the bill.
And I brought you the PPP poll showing that birthers are putting Trump within single digits of Romney in NH. Another interesting finding was that Romney was still leading among those who objected to someone who supported an Obamacare-like bill.
Chuck Butcher
@Omnes Omnibus: You have to win elections to do anything. I don’t have much faith that the Ds will run anything other than the middle way horseshit that has given us the last 30 yrs. You figure different, well maybe things will change this time around.
danimal
DougJ’s entire premise, that the GOP has nothing to gain from a shutdown, is flawed. They must shutdown the government to increase their “crazy cop” factor. It is the only thing that gives them the kind of negotiating power they have.
Also, Boehner is out of a job if he doesn’t push hard and either win total capitulation or force a shutdown. While the end game doesn’t look good for the GOP, they have painted themselves into a corner and none of the other end games look good, either.
The good General Stuck is right about ACA. The GOP is in a total snit about losing that fight and they don’t really care who they hurt in their efforts to fight back. I strongly suspect that if they got everything they asked for, they would have the hangover of the century as they analyze the next election cycle. I suspect they are hoping that Obama and the Dems give them a lifeline. I don’t think they’ll get one this time.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Stillwater: I have been thinking about the whole Republican strategy and have finally come up with an analogy that most people will understand. The Republicans have decided that they will no longer buy food at the grocery store. They get to talk about the savings by no longer buying bread and meat. The problem is that there are no savings, because now, they have to go out to eat every night, which costs more.
What’s annoying, is that when Democrats propose not eating out any more, the Republicans get away with arguing that the cost of grocery shopping will go up.
PaulW
The GOP Avalanche has already started. It is too late for the Democratic Pebbles to vote.
JohnR
@Poopyman:
I’m surprised that there aren’t 115 out of 115 answers saying basically the same thing as you. I know that would be my answer. Why would the GOP back down now? They’re completely safe, as the Broderian press is guaranteed to blame this all on the recalcitrant Democrats. NPR has been pushing the “both sides blame each other/neither side will give in” line, and I haven’t heard anything more “liberal” than that. Even if they didn’t feel they have nothing to loset, I suspect they feel that they can’t afford to back down now (it would make them look weak and unmanly, like the Democrats). Speaking of which, 10:1 Obama backs down.
kdaug
@Stillwater: Screw it, life’s been good to me so far.
Martin
You guys are treating the GOP as one caucus – they aren’t. They’re two caucuses, and the one with momentum is thrilled to shut the government down. The Dems can’t negotiate with that. It’s going to get shut down unless Boehner can get his people in line. That’s why the CR was sold with a half trillion dollars (annualized) in cuts, to try and get the teapartiers to swallow it.
And Ryan’s budget is going to backfire worse than the villagers understand. From age 55 to 65, individuals steadily allow their health insurance to lapse and that really picks up at age 61 when people retire and start to draw SS. 55 year-olds aren’t waiting 10 years to feel that pain because quite a lot of them expect to float across their early 60s without health insurance knowing that the Medicare life raft is waiting for them at 65. Everyone in that group, plus everyone probably back to age 50 that’s starting to count down years to retirement are going to collectively freak the fuck out.
Ryan has no fucking clue what its like to go without health insurance, nor do any of the very serious people. They has no idea what a Pandora’s box he’s opening.
PaulW
The Republicans at this point wants a government shutdown because they genuinely believe enough Americans will buy their explanation that the Democrats are the ones who would be responsible for said shutdown.
But too many Americans are already skeptical of Republicans, and are fully aware of what the GOP is doing at the state level (esp. going after unions and schools and Medicare programs already!). I doubt the GOP or Fox-Not-News is going to convince people outside of the crazy wingnut circles that this will all be the Democrats’ fault.
Here’s a quick history lesson that sane people will recognize but that the wingnuts will laugh off:
The last two government shutdowns happened because there was a Democratic President and a Republican Congress.
When there was a Republican President and a Democratic Congress (for two years 2006-2008) there was no shutdown.
When there was a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress (for two years 2008-2010) there was no shutdown.
We are now facing a shutdown with a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled House (which basically makes it a Republican Congress). People will notice a trend. The shutdowns never happen with a Democratic Congress, and only happens when there’s a Democratic President whom the Republican Congress despises (Clinton and Obama).
Considering how popular Clinton was, and how popular Obama is (barely hovering near 50 percent, but way better than the Republican Congress numbers), it doesn’t look likely that people are going to buy the GOP’s excuse that the shutdowns are all the fault of Democrats.
Even Reagan knew this. The side angling for the shutdown will get blamed for it no matter what. And too many people know that the Teabagger faction of the Republicans WANT this shutdown to fulfill their Ayn Rand fantasies…
Judas Escargot
@Martin:
Assuming that those 55-65 year olds would make rational decisions based on factual information, you are absolutely correct.
Given that that same demographic hasn’t shown much capacity for the former, even if you manage to expose them to the latter, however… I’m not so sure.
Most of the older set I know personally are livid about Medicare Advantage going away and not much else. Never mind that it’s the insurance companies pulling those plans (now that the 15% subsidy is becoming history), it’s Obama’s fault. Never mind that, had that 15% subsidy been replaced by letting healthy young people buy into Medicare/Medicaid as the public option, nothing would have changed for them.
I despair of this country surviving its elders.
Tony J
Replace ‘shutdown’ with ‘market-based reform’ and you’ve just described the approach successive Governments here in Britain have taken towards all of out Public Services, including the NHS.
Frex – Force the NHS to enter into laughably one-sided ‘partnerships’ with private companies that funnel hundreds of millions in tax money out of front-line services and into the profit column of the private companies who make the lowest initial bids, then, when the quality of care goes down, hospitals turn into filthy disease-farms and staff start complaining that they need more resources to raise standards, claim that this just proves that what the NHS really needs is more ‘reform’ and a wider role for private companies.
Repeat as many times as necessary to totally break the system and give an excuse to fully privatise it. At which point, you can funnel the tax money straight into the private sector in the form of subsidies and claim with a moderately straight face that this is the only sensible policy, because they tried running it as a public service and “everyone knows” that was a failure.
It’s worked for years here, and in the process created a real growth industry in former Government hatchetmen moving into the private sector as Executive Directors of and Freelance Advisors to the same companies they made very rich while they were in office. So that’s good, eh?
Elizabelle
@EconWatcher:
I won’t be happy until James Inhoffe is riding a bus.
Chris
@Tony J:
Is your side of the ocean as much in thrall to free-market fundamentalists as ours is? Has that changed since the financial crisis at all? Sorry, I don’t follow British politics very closely.
Elizabelle
@Martin:
The only way to get serious healthcare reform would have been to kick the congressgrafters off their cushy government-provided healthcare and let them, office by office, negotiate for a private policy that would cover their employees.
Paul Ryan doesn’t understand. The Villagers don’t understand, unless they’re hanging with their pink-slipped former colleagues.
Most of them don’t.
I just hope the politicians pay bigtime for their obliviousness.
burnspbesq
@Omnes Omnibus:
“Yippee, the asshole brigade has arrived.”
Arrived? They never left.
Shoemaker-Levy 9
Of course, as we all saw how dramatically they moved to the center after the routs of 2006 and 2008.
Cliff
Would a result like this influence House Republicans’ thinking about a shutdown?
What are you, stupid?
Tony J
@Chris:
It’s less overtly macho in its posturing, but yeah, it is.
Basically Blair took charge of the Labour Party in 1994 and transformed it into a ‘moderate conservative’ top-down organisation with the flayed skin of ‘The Party of the Working People’ draped over its Armani besuited shoulders, rebranding Thatcherism-lite as ‘New Labour’. By 1997 the Tories were so toxic that a greased-up deaf guy with his wang out could have beaten them, but the meme was that the scale of the victory was as much a rejection of ‘Old Labour’ as anything else. New Labour was ‘business-friendly’, and that was what people clearly wanted.
Long story short, ten years of Blair totally soured the British Electorate on New Labour, and Gordon Brown pissed away his chance to do something different by continuing Blairite policies without the PR expertise in the middle of the financial crisis. But again, greased-up deaf guy failed to show up at the polls, so people were restricted to a more humdrum choice of options. The Party that’s just as bad as the Tories, the Party that actually is the Tories, just with a new coat of paint, or the Party that never wins elections because we have a Two-Party system.
The Tories eventually elected their own Blair to the leadership in Cameron, and though he failed to win them a majority in 2010, he made a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats in which the Tories got to ram through all of the savage cuts to public services they’ve ever dreamed of, blaming the need for them on the deficit created by New Labour (apparently it was all due to overspending on Public Services, no banker was involved) and the Liberal Democrats got a referendum on a weak form of Proportional Representation that might see their share of the vote transfered into genuine political power at some point in the future – if they weren’t seeing their support collapse amongst voters who now see them as sort of the Alan Combes to the Tories’ Sean Hannity.
There’s not a scintilla of difference between Blair’s New Labour and Cameron’s Tory Party when it comes to free-market orthodoxy. All the financial crisis did was give the Tories a golden opportunity to frontload their ‘solution’ to the problem of the deficit with an assault on all of the usual right-wing scapegoats. Unions, Public Services, students, immigrants, dole-scroungers, etc.
So it’s another three years of mostly-Tory rule here, unless enough Lib-Dem MPs revolt to bring down the Coalition Government. Then all we’d get is another Election, and with New-New Labour still flailing around for a way to reject the taint of Blairism when they were all enthusiastic Blairites just a few years ago, and the Lib-Dem vote collapsing, it could mean a majority Tory Government, with all the mandate that entails.
What a pretty picture. I’d advise you not to develop any interest in British politics for a good while yet. You don’t need the pain.
lllphd
@lllphd:
ok, color me ‘shamed.
i wrote this previous comment while multitasking, and trying too hard to be snarky about these closet justices (among apparently other roles) in WI, i placed too much emphasis on the closet part and lost sight of appearing so prissy about the obvious implications as to be anti-sexual choice to neanderthal depths.
and i believe managed to also insult neanderthals. deepest apologies.
Comrade DougJ
@lllphd: ]
Meh, closeted Republicans are funny. I’m not for publicly outing them and destroying them or anything, but I’m all for laughing at them.
cynickal
As mah daddy said, ya can’t cure stupid.