They’re locked up in a tight one in Wisconsin. I’m afraid Fond du Lac county is going to bite us in the ass.
Wisconsin
by DougJ| 351 Comments
This post is in: Politics
by DougJ| 351 Comments
This post is in: Politics
They’re locked up in a tight one in Wisconsin. I’m afraid Fond du Lac county is going to bite us in the ass.
Comments are closed.
Spaghetti Lee
There’s a lot of Milwaukee, Madison, and Eau Claire left. Klopp was down 20K earlier and came back. Ain’t over, fat lady sings, etc.
robertdsc-PowerBook
Fuck.
Stillwater
I’ve never trusted the Fond du Lac people. Outsidery.
Go Price county!
Lolis
Kloppenburg retakes a slim lead. For the moment.
http://elections.todaystmj4.com/G8801.htm
grandpajohn
also a lot of Dane is still out
Ron
Probably won’t be able to call this one til pretty late into the night. Wonder if there will be recount demands.
L. Ron Obama
Waukesha holding back votes just to fuck with us now
Mousebumples
Fond du Lac (FdL) is moderately metro, but there’s far too much rural space in that county. FdL is part of US Rep Petri’s district. I cannot fathom why they (and we, since I also live in his district – just not in FdL Co.) keep re-electing him …
MikeJ
AP shows 0 votes in in Fond du Lac. I never trusted anybody that fond of lakes.
And Fond du Lac = FDL. Maybe they’ll send a message.
patroclus
Kloppenburg! Kloppenburg!
Linda Featheringill
It seems to be a tight race. The more urban [and Democrat] areas haven’t fully reported yet. The Klop might win yet.
Dork
To repost my comment (from a dead thread)– just how cooked is the recount in the Repub’s favor should this come down to less than 100 or so votes either way? Who in the state would declare fraud? Gov? Nope. State Legislature? Haha! State SC? Nope.
What’s the check on recount shenanigans?
themann1086
Fond du Lac voted for Walker 24k-13k in November. FYI.
Splitting Image
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Omnes Omnibus
Remember that outside of the Dane and Milwaukee counties, the expected turnout was 20%. The expected turnout in Madison is supposed to be around 70%. There are a lot of votes to be counted.
danimal
So, how have the union thugs worked with ACORN to make this election close? Please share tactics and tricks for the National Review crowd.
Thanks in advance.
Splitting Image
@Dork:
Fix is already in, as per TPM.
Kloppenburg 49%
515,891
Prosser 51%
514,475
.
.
.
;o)
Martin
@themann1086: Yeah, but would they do it again?
bk
If shit like this can’t get out the vote, then we are screwed.
JC
Agree with L Ron above – Waukesha county reporting seems off.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
Interesting that Milwaukee County went so hard for Kloppenburg, given their previous county exec, heh. I remain optimistic, just to be stubborn. But I admit my envy in that OH has no recall provision, and our King is just as much of a dick, if not moreso.
@Omnes Omnibus: What’s your prediction, then? If you have one, of course.
SIA
Tied again!
ETA: UGH. I don’t like these really close ones – makes it a bit too easy for hanky panky.
guachi
Still say it’s 51-49 Prosser. I don’t see how there are enough votes left for Kloppenburg to come back.
patroclus
The KlopMeister re-takes the lead! 532.5-531.9.
TooManyJens
@bk: Yeah. This is making me really nervous. Words I never thought I’d say about a judicial election in a state I don’t live in.
Three-nineteen
I’ll repost in this thread a conversation I had with my boss yesterday.
Boss: I need this done by next Friday. What date is that?
Me: April 15th. Tax Day! But if the government shuts down, I’m not sure if it’s tax day anymore — ha ha!
Boss: What are you talking about?
Me: You know, the looming government shutdown?
Boss: …
Me: The budget crisis? If there’s no compromise, the federal government shuts down on April 8th?
Boss: You’re kidding, right?
L. Ron Obama
@JC: It’s either off or we’re going to see a sudden shift to Prosser of 100,000 votes.
Spaghetti Lee
@danimal:
Stood around menacingly, glared at white folk. Thanks for asking!
patroclus
6,000 in the lead! The Kloppbrilator is building alead!
Three-nineteen
@bk: Shit like this is actually getting out the vote. Normally Prosser would be winning, by around 75-25.
Paul W.
Wow, she seems to be pulling ahead but I have no idea what counties have yet to report. This is tense.
Splitting Image
I’ll bet that Prosser is the sort of creep who wears a digital watch.
AkaDad
Supreme Court REPORTING 71%
Joanne Kloppenburg 552,053 50%
David Prosser (inc) 546,662 50%
Face
I always thought Wisky was more blue than this. For this to be so close, after all the shit that went down, is stunning. Bad, bad sign for 2012.
Omnes Omnibus
@guachi:The numbers of precincts left to vote will not indicate the number of votes left to be counted. Some areas (e.g. Madison) had a massive turnout.
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
No real idea, but I will say Kloppenburg by 5,000 at the end.
cat48
Glenzilla is on Lawrence promoting a primary for Obama. I didn’t see the show earlier & wish I had missed it late.
Mousebumples
@Face: We’re a swing state that has terrible unemployment in some areas of the state. Some of that is recovering, but the state went solid red back in November 2010.
As much as I hate having this close, it gives me hope that we’ll be solid blue, through and through, come the next major election …
TooManyJens
I don’t think those Waukesha numbers are possible, just based on the population of the county. There’s no way they have 85K votes counted with only 25% of the precincts reporting. Only about 380K people live there.
Spaghetti Lee
@Face:
Keep it in context. The fact that the GOP has to fight for this is already surprising. These are normally the sorts of elections that no one cares about, and the pro-Kloppenburg movement was basically thrown together in a few days (I don’t recall having heard her name a week ago). If she wins, it’s big.
L. Ron Obama
Waukesha now reporting 235% turnout
danimal
@Spaghetti Lee: Ah, the dread “stand around and glare menacingly” tactic.
Call in the D of J. And appropriate special funding NOW so the shutdown doesn’t affect this vital national priority.
Omnes Omnibus
@Face: Wisconsin elected a Republican governor and a Republican US Senator and turned the state legislature from D to R in 2010. That is why this whole thing is going on right now.
SIA
Still tied, Kloppenburg slightly ahead!
Spaghetti Lee
@TooManyJens:
Maybe all the cities are in and the ones that are left are rural. But certainly someone oughta keep an eye out for shenanigans. The Fitzwalkerstani overlords of suburban Milwaukee won’t let their prize go easily.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
i have no paid more attention to a judgeship election in wisconsin, than any judgeship election i have ever not paid attention to.
now that i think about it, prisons are where the media should go to get informed opinion on judges, not just that they do or don’t like a judge, we can assume they don’t like them, but let the inmates say why the judges suck. then decide, are you with, or against the inmate.
SIA
Still tied, Kloppenburg slightly more ahead!
MikeJ
@danimal: They ought to call in the DoJ every time I go in starbucks then. Seems like I spend ten minutes just glaring at white people who want to talk about the weather with the coffee slinger while I’m waiting to order.
soonergrunt
@Face: doom-saying troll is saying doom.
Lev
@Spaghetti Lee: At least the WI Secretary of State is a Dem. Considering the Walker-Fitzgerald thuggery so far, we can really give thanks for that.
Mousebumples
@Spaghetti Lee: My family is pretty politically active, so I’ve heard the Kloppenburg/Prosser debate for the past few weeks. However, I will agree that I didn’t hear much in the media until recently. I’m just impressed that it’s this close. I can’t speak for other states, but Wisconsin tends to go with the incumbents for judicial elections unless there’s some massive fraud, etc. To see this sort of contested election is, I think, unprecedented.
Punchy
@Dork: I dont see how this doesnt require a recount, and I dont see any way to ensure an honest recount. I have to say, as much as I abhor violence, I suspect if the Dem has this won going into the recount but somehow the Repub ends up being “declared” the winner, things may get violent. Wisky better hope the recount really doesnt change the winner, because shit’s so tense and edgy right now, with no one trusting anybody….
Stillwater
The lead seems to keep growing eversoslowly.
Will Reks
So what’s the intrade looking like for this? ;)
Lev
Waukesha now more than 1/2 in according to AP. About 64k-23k Prosser so far.
fasteddie9318
Is it normal for Waukesha to be reporting in at whateverProsserneeds%?
L. Ron Obama
lol. waukesha just reported 60 more precincts, totalling a whopping 0 votes
me
@Lev: It went from 25% to 55% reporting without the numbers actually changing.
guachi
Looks like the biggest issue with any predictions at this point is that the counties with large numbers or precincts left to report are ones that are heavily for one candidate or another.
Ozaukee, Racine, Washington, Waukesha are for Prosser. Dane and Milwaukee are for Kloppenburg. Wish I knew the make up of the outstanding precincts.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Spaghetti Lee: This is a point worth noting. In an election that was assumed to be a gimme, Fitzwalkerstan’s judicial crony had to fight hard, and spend his time getting free Faux fluffing (ad)time with Greta van Facelift-gone-awry.
TooManyJens
@Spaghetti Lee: OK, now I’m seeing roughly the same number of votes but they’re saying that 60% of precincts are reporting. That’s a little saner. Also, it makes the race look a lot better, because Waukesha is the biggest pro-Prosser county.
JC
Sounds about right for a Republican county in a close important election.
SOP, get with the program.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
REPORTING 78%
Joanne Kloppenburg
583,113
50%
David Prosser (inc)
575,930
50%
Mousebumples
@fasteddie9318: Considering that Klopp is still up by 8K, I think their math may be a bit off …. ;)
Of course, there’s still probably 33% of precincts yet to report in Waukesha Co., so … who knows what else they have up their sleeves …
johndivy
It’s OVER 9000!!!
redbeardjim
@Lev: Which looks to me like almost the same total that it was when it was 52/198 precincts. Got some tiny precincts there, do they?
patroclus
18,000 lead for the Klopper; 81% in.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
BOOM WENT THE DYNAMITE!
REPORTING 81%
Joanne Kloppenburg
609,621
51%
David Prosser (inc)
591,880
49%
ruemara
Ok, Klopp hit the 10k difference mark now, with 81% in. I can unclench my fist. A bit.
SIA
Wow-za.
Supreme Court REPORTING 81%
Joanne Kloppenburg 609,621 51%
David Prosser (inc) 591,880 49%
ETA: @ Max McGee
kideni
Apparently Fond du Lac ran out of ballots and had to print more, so they kept the polls open past 8. That’s a reddish area, though with a lot of unions. Still not a lot from Eau Claire. There’s still a fair amount of Dane County to be counted. This is driving me batty.
SIA
Not only did you beat me to it, but your text looks much more tidy. :)
guachi
I like how 50 precincts in Waukesha reported and the vote total didn’t change at all. And a massive shift in Milwaukee to Kloppenburg. City precincts reporting?
Rest of Racine in. More shift to Kloppenburg in the Republican county.
Face
@Omnes Omnibus: Thanks, I had no idea. It also voted for Obama by a 56-43 margin, voted for Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000. Hence, my comment.
Omnes Omnibus
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): That is a really important factor. Judges and Justices usually cruise to reelection.
L. Ron Obama
Jump was due to a large chunk of Milwaukee coming in.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
Which one is the activist judge? I want that one to win!
Stillwater
Getting past margin of theft is crucial here. Is 18k enough?
MikeJ
@kideni: Anybody know where wards 99-147 are in Dane Co? Those seem to be the ones left.
JC
Hmm, not sure that what’s left to report in Dane county can overcome the final flurry of Waukesha ‘shenanigans’. (I’m assuming that’s the PC term).
But I’m hopeful!
Mousebumples
@guachi: I can’t speak for all of them, but a quick rundown on my thoughts …
Eau Claire is 20/61 reporting and is 60/40 Klopp, which seems about right. (I was up there for the weekend when the Democrats started their walkout, and most I encountered were supporting the teachers. Pretty blue country up there.) I’d expect those numbers to more or less hold steady as more precincts report. However, my cousin from that area was concerned that turnout may be down in that area (or at least her precinct).
FdL is 0/77. As I stated above, that’s probably going to turn in red. I’d figure similar numbers to Sheboygan county. Both are in similar geographic areas and are a larger city (FdL or Sheboygan) surrounded by more rural areas.
Waupaca is 0/38. My gut says red, but I believe UW-Stevens Point is in Waupaca Co., which could result in some decent union turnout.
Grant, Trempeleau, Washburn … 0/whatever. No clue what to expect there. If there’s interest, I could have a look at a map to figure out where they are and make some educated guesses. However, looking at Nov 2008/2010 returns would probably give a better indicator.
me
The Dane County website is reporting about 4000 more for Prosser and 9000 more for Kloppenburg then the AP.
SIA
@Mousebumples: Thanks for the local information, from you and the other WI folks.
L. Ron Obama
@JC: If necessary, Waukesha can still add in the 30 precincts it keeps squirreled away for a rainy day
peach flavored shampoo
Repubs furiously printing 19,001 more “Prosser” ballots as fast as those chads can be disposed of…..
It really does suck that this country has become so shitty that nobody trusts the outcome of any election that involves a Republican.
The Dangerman
With 84% in, the Good Guys are up almost 35K over the Evil Fuckers; seems like a big lead except for where that 15% uncounted is located.
TooManyJens
@MikeJ: Here’s the polling place map: http://www.cityofmadison.com/election/voter/documents/PollingPlaces03082011.pdf Not sure if wards=precincts, but it looks like they might.
MikeJ
Green Lake which has 0 precincts in wnet 57% for McCain. Of course it had a total of 10,000 votes in a presidential elections.
Some numbers to play with.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
Another big bump for Kloppenburg!
Supreme Court REPORTING 84%
Joanne Kloppenburg
640,660
51%
David Prosser (inc)
605,734
49%
guachi
wow, you wouldn’t think a 70-30 lead in Dane county could get larger, but it’s now up to 75-25. I so want to live there.
me
AP messed up. It should be 124880 not 134880.
soonergrunt
Supreme Court REPORTING 84%
Joanne Kloppenburg 640,660 51%
David Prosser (inc) 605,734 49%
Difference 34,926
patroclus
Put a fork in it – this one’s done. Kloppenburg up by 35,000.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: FDL is the county just south of Outagamie which is where Prosser is from. UWSP is in Portage County. Waupaca borders Outagamie as well. Waupaca does not have a large population. I would expect low turnout and a mild Prosser edge there. FWIW I am from and have family in central Wisconsin. The towns will vote D, but the countryside will vote R; these counties have a lot of countryside.
Mousebumples
@TooManyJens: I can’t speak for Dane Co., but I know that in my part of the state, our Wards are our Precincts. So I would guess, yes.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@MikeJ:
i am torn between calling you a terrorist, and asking you why you are getting coffee at tarstarbux, there has to be a better way.
AkaDad
Supreme Court REPORTING 84%
Joanne Kloppenburg 640,660 51%
David Prosser (inc) 605,734 49%
Common Sense
@Mousebumples:
Grant & Washburn went for Walker by less than 10 points. Trempeleau was the same spread but for Barrett:
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/106588378.html
All 3 went for Obama in 2008.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/president/wisconsin.html
Face
@Mousebumples: How can all those precincts be outstanding, yet close to 85% of the counts are in?
Math makes no sense to me.
MikeJ
@TooManyJens: Interesting to look at, but without know the demographics of the city it’s hard for an outsider to know what it means.
Very, very roughly speaking, the precincts over #100 seem to be in higher density areas, which tend to go Dem. But that is talking completely out of my ass.
JC
What’s up with Fond du lac, as well as rest of Waukesh?
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: Makes sense. I’m more familiar with the “coast” – grew up in Washington Co., live a bit further north now. I have family in Dane and Eau Claire counties, so that’s where that knowledge comes from.
Still, I’m hopeful. Although I’m pretty sure that my family canceled each others’ votes out and we split 2-2 on the Supreme Court ballot.
grandpajohn
Kloppenberg now up by 35,000 with 3039 precincts reporting
Three-nineteen
Well, according to random people like Dave Weigel, Kenosha is supposed to be the indicator for the state, and it went 53-47 for Kloppenburg (you’re welcome). Racine and Sheboygan go as Waukesha goes, so the Prosser votes are no surprise. Racine (along with the southern half of Waukesha County) is the reason Paul Ryan is in the House.
JC
What Face said.
Listen to the face!
Martin
Relax guys, Kloppenburg is going to cruise on this. You’re getting too hung up on the precinct % matching the vote %. I’ve watched too many precinct counts come in, and this looks like a lock.
kideni
@MikeJ: those are probably on the edges of town; some may not actually be places where people live, but areas that need an alder to represent some interest (parkland, office parks, industrial areas, that sort of thing). It looks as though there are a few central wards that haven’t reported anything, and those may be parts of the UW campus that don’t have dorms. I’m just speculating here.
Edo
Kloppenburg’s lead is down to 25,000.
http://elections.todaystmj4.com/G8801.htm
Whoever suggested Sibelius’s 2nd? I really hope this finishes before the second playthrough does.
(Also, thank you for mentioning it; I’d never heard of Sibelius before.)
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
Dumb question from the non-Midwesterner: Nearly 1.3mm votes for an election like this (meaning an off cycle election) is a tremendous amount, right?
It seems like a shit ton (fuck ton?) of votes!
The Dangerman
@MikeJ:
On the Internet, this makes you an expert.
Spaghetti Lee
Three cheers for the DPR of Madison!
And if anyone needs another this-country-isn’t-crazy-yet pick-me-up, I saw that in a hypothetical Obama-Gingrich matchup, they’d be about tied in the state of Georgia.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: I am on the isthmus in Madison now, but from Wausau with a bunch of family in Stevens Point.
L. Ron Obama
Waukesha County abacus is having some issues
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
Prosser makes up 11K votes…Too little too late? One can hope…
Supreme Court REPORTING 85%
Joanne Kloppenburg
648,723
51%
David Prosser (inc)
624,972
49%
sven
Lead down to 5k, central Wisc. seems to be moving for Prosser.
Temporarily Max McGee (soon enough to be Andy K again)
Uh oh…
Supreme Court REPORTING 88%
Joanne Kloppenburg
655,325
50%
David Prosser (inc)
650,059
50%
Splitting Image
@Martin:
Looks that way to me, too, but I’ll wait until I hear all the evidence before pronouncing sentence.
(ba-dum *tish*)
MikeJ
@Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal: When I’m coding I’ll often go for a walk to clear my head. I generally pass two or three ★$s, and since all I usually order is a macchiato it’s not too awful.
@The Dangerman: Admitting I’m talking out of my ass disqualifies me from experthood. To retain the title I should simply do it with no qualifications.
Omnes Omnibus
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine: Huge, fucking huge.
Punchy
Wow, that didn’t take long. Prosser suddenly surges. Nailbiter. It would be shame if all those rural folk who so hate unions had to suddenly homeschool all 13 of their children after the teachers go on strike.
L. Ron Obama
Fond du Lac came in. Waukesha shaking off its torpor just in time to deliver the votes
MikeJ
FDL and Green Lake completely in now though.
The Dangerman
Down to 5K with 88% in; clearly, my prediction with 84% was FOS. Anyone know when auto recount kicks in in WI?
redbeardjim
All of FdL county is now reporting, 61/39 for Prosser.
Mousebumples
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine: Especially without anything that’s traditionally “of interest” on the ballot, statewide. (i.e. the only statewide election is the Supreme Court)
I read somewhere that “average” turnout for a contested SC election (statewide) was surpassed when we were at about 50% precincts reporting. I fully expect to demolish midterm election records.
Lev
Well, at least Fond du Lac is in now. Looks like it worth 6k net for Prosser.
patroclus
Uh oh…
kideni
@guachi: my polling place went 97% for Kloppenburg!
JC
Waukesha versus rest of Dane, pretty much
Bob Loblaw
Hmm, less than 2000 votes separation with 90% reporting.
And I thought this thread (and the last one) was reeking of desperation and flopsweat before.
The Dangerman
Under 2K at 90% now; this calls for a drink.
Omnes Omnibus
Outside of Waukesha County, there just aren’t that many more votes available for Prosser. His areas are mostly in and counted.
kideni
@The Dangerman: I’ve heard that it kicks in if the diff is less than 1%, which may happen here.
Spaghetti Lee
Lots of outstanding in Madison and Milwaukee, hope it’s enough. Still some outstanding in Wood and Trempleau, which lean D, I believe. A lot of Prosser’s territory is done now, so I’m still betting on Klopp.
Punchy
@kideni: That’s amazing. You must have polled in a school across from a police station, next to some gay abortion-friendly construction site.
JC
Well, actually Milwaukee and Dane versus Waukesha.
L. Ron Obama
Waukesha 700,000 – Dane 11,000,000 now reported by googlefight.com
TooManyJens
I hadn’t realized this:
http://twitter.com/#!/MMFlint/statuses/55479919995666432
That’s pretty amazing.
Gordon, The Big Express Engine
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes and Dane and Milwaukee still have sizable votes that are not counted…
I’m from Virginia and I remember staying up into the wee hours reloading the pages and predicting that Webb would surge in at the end and win and it happened.
MikeJ
@Spaghetti Lee: Trempleau’s in, 54-46 for us.
soonergrunt
@L. Ron Obama: eleven million?!?
WaterGirl
Good news in my neck of the woods (Champaign-Urbana, IL)
We just got ourselves a new mayor after 12 years of having a creepy mayor who said this on video a year ago at a Tea Party rally:
Question: What do you think of Obama?
Answer: “I don’t think he’s American, personally.”
SIA
@WaterGirl: Congratulations!
Spaghetti Lee
@WaterGirl: Woo-hoo!
Mousebumples
Notable outstanding counties with precincts currently reporting:
Dane (207/248) – 73/27 K right now
Eau Claire (20/61) – 60/40 K
Marathon (107/140) – mostly split, 54/46 P
Milwaukee (457/489) – mentioned only due to population of county; 57/43 K
Trempeleau (0/26) – ??Washington (10/38) – 77/23 P
Waukesha (125/198) – 73/27 P
Waupaca (0/38) – ??
Wood (33/56) – 52/48 P
TooManyJens
@WaterGirl: YES! Congratulations on voting the birther out! I was starting to wish I still lived on the other side of Wright Street just so I could vote against him.
Punchy
What if lawyers ask the Wisky SC to get involved, and they declare Prosser the victor by the precedent of Shut the Fuck Up?
/weak troll attempt
TooManyJens
@Mousebumples: Trempeleau is in according to AP: 54/46 K.
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: Washington is the biggest pro-Prosser area left to report, I think.
Total county population (per Wiki, 2010) of 131,887.
Very heavy GOP area with traditionally excellent turnout.
WaterGirl
@TooManyJens: I mostly wish I lived in Urbana. :-)
Edit: I really didn’t think Don Gerard would win, but it’s always a good day if you can vote against the guy you hate, even if don’t think your guy is gonna win.
SFAW
Well, unless the remaining Waukesha vote decides to swing to Kloppenburg, Prosser will coast home. Up by 50K in Waukesha with 60% counted translates to another 30K for Prosser at the end. Doubtful that Kloppenburg can make that up.
Of course, that Waukesha continues to go as strongly for Prosser is a big IF, but …
JC
Mousebumples,
Just based on leaning counties, that doesn’t look so hot.
Actual population centers, seems again to be Dane and Waukesha as biggest bumps, but, with a 5K difference, even the small counties not reported, I’m assuming, can really swing things one way or the other.
SFAW states my fear, above.
JCJ
I hope all of my fellow balloon-juice Wisconsinites won’t hold against me the fact that I live in Waukesha County. I have been trying to rally all of my comrades!
kideni
@Punchy: close, but it’s a fire house, not a police station :-)
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Where are you guys finding what’s still outstanding?
MikeJ
@Mousebumples:
2008 election totals for those counties:
Dane: ~275k
Eau Clair: ~50k
Marathon: ~66k
Wash: ~75k
Waukesha: ~230k
Wood: ~37k
Spaghetti Lee
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
First link posted in the first election thread.
patroclus
1600 lead; 92% in.
OzoneR
@Gordon, The Big Express Engine:
That’s almost midterm election territory…though I suppose we’ll still be hearing from some about how “the base” didn’t turn out.
Even though they, you know, did and all.
Dork
If this does indeed go K, I would be sweating if I were one of the targeted R’s in the state senate. Shows just how pissed off people are. Recalls almost guarenteed to flip parties.
sven
FWIW, Dane has a total population ~488000
AP has ~ 170,000 votes in….
Best guess as to votes left outstanding?
CZ4ever
Interesting factoids:
2008 WI voters (presidential): 2.95M (Obama 1.67M, McCain 1.26M)
2010 WI voters (senate): 2.17M (Johnson 1.13M, Feingold 1.02M)
2010 WI voters (state supreme court runoff): 1.37M w/ 92% of vote in
So, today’s election is a substantial drop from statewide presidential and senate races, but still pretty dang high for what I’m sure is normally a pro forma retention election.
L. Ron Obama
Fucking Waukesha, man.
SIA
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): I’m using the AP website.
JC
Although, regarding Waukesha, could again get a number of precincts in, with no actual VOTES coming in, like last time?
AkaDad
@WaterGirl:
Awesome!
Supreme Court REPORTING 92%
Joanne Kloppenburg 684,512 50%
David Prosser (inc) 682,935 50%
TooManyJens
@sven: I was hearing estimates of 70% turnout, but I have no idea how many of those 488K are registered voters.
Actually, come to think of it, WI has same-day registration, so I should say “eligible voters”.
How the fuck do they determine percentage of turnout in a state with same-day registration?
Sarah, Proud and Tall
@Punchy:
First elaborated by Lord Frazer of Tullybelton in the case of Serfs v Glorious God King (1544) All ER 73, if I am not mistaken.
CZ4ever
A lot of people are misreading the % reporting in various counties. Typically this means the number of precincts that have completed reported, not the percentage of total votes. That’s why you see bizarre stuff like a county’s % reporting increase by 25%, but the vote total barely budge — it just means that the last couple of votes in a lot of precincts were finally finished.
ktward
@sven: For the love of god, someone answer sven. Please.
patroclus
No joy in Mudville. Prosser takes 500+ lead.
Face
And…it flips for the bad guy.
Mousebumples
Prosser currently ahead … :(
Supreme Court REPORTING 92%
David Prosser (inc) 687,274
Joanne Kloppenburg 686,683
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Only 7,000 votes in Eau Claire County? Damned place looks bigger than that whenever I drive past it.
MikeJ
Damn you Martin, come back in here and unjinx us. Going to cruise. Grrr. Never, ever say that until the last vote is in.
Omnes Omnibus
@SFAW: No. Look at Dane and apply the same logic.
In reality, the number of precincts left to report tells us very little. Until we know how many people in precinct decided to vote, we don’t know anything. As I have mentioned before, the city clerk of Madison estimates the city will be near 70% turnout.
guachi
not a big deal. The only counties that reported were Republican counties. All of Waupaca reported at once and that was 2200 net votes for Prosser.
WaterGirl
@SIA: @Spaghetti Lee: @AkaDad: Thanks for celebrating with me!
I don’t understand what happened to the big lead for K.
Edit: You, too, AkaDad!
The Dangerman
When are abscentees (if any) counted in this election?
MikeJ
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN): 7k with 1/3rd of precincts in. 50k turnout in a presidential election, anything over 20k is pretty impressive for an April off year.
Splitting Image
At this point I don’t think we’re going to get a result tonight. A recount is almost inevitable no matter who’s ahead.
The one difference is that Kloppenburg will be ordered to Concede! Concede! CONCEDE! if Prosser is a few votes up, but Prosser will drag the process out until next year if it’s the other way round.
Spaghetti Lee
Waukesha and Washington just turned in a lot of precincts, probably why Prosser jumped ahead. Milwaukee’s pretty much done, lots of outstanding precincts in Madison and Eau Claire. That’s where Klopp’s win will come from, if it happens.
patroclus
down 399 now…
JC
400 votes? 400 VOTES???
jeez…
Tom Q
You know, this shouldn’t have been even close, and it should be an enormous moral victory for the good guys as it stands. But. the way the numbers have traveled all night, if the Pub pulls it out by a whisker, it’ll have been the cruelest kind of tease, and a lot of folks on our side will feel really demoralized.
soonergrunt
399 vote difference with 93% reporting.
WOW.
With 94%, Prosser up ~6500 votes
This is crazy
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Here’s a question. If there’s a recount, and anything on it reaches the Supreme Court, does Prosser have to recuse himself?
bemused senior
I read that they hadn’t preprinted enough ballots in Dane county and expected to be “up late counting the vote manually”. Any insight from the locals on that?
MikeJ
@Tom Q:
A lot of folks on our side are going to complain even if god comes down from heaven and crowns Kloppenburg queen of the dairyland.
ppcli
Aw crap. I had insomnia, so I got up 1/2 hour ago. Just in time to see Kloppenberg balloon up to a 40,000 lead. Then watch it collapse to a few thousand and then trickle away. I’m bad luck. Better go to bed or I’ll be up all night. C’mon Dane county!
Mousebumples
Updated list of outstanding counties:
Dane (243/248 reporting) – 73/27 K
Eau Claire (20/61) – 60/40 K
Marathon (108/140) – 54/46 P
Milwaukee (473/486) – 56/44 K
Ozaukee (40/48) – 71/29 P
Racine (53/63) – 54/46 P
Sauk (31/39) – 55/45 K
Washington (38/38) – 76/24 PWaukesha (130/198) – 73/27 P
Wood (54/56) – 51/49 KCounties of note, I think, are: Dane, Eau Claire, and Milwaukee for Kloppenburg. However, Dane and Milwaukee are predominantly in, from the precinct counts. However, who knows which “wards” are left to report.
Prosser “strongholds” remaining are Ozaukee
and Washington(relatively low population, compared to the K-list, but solid SOLID Repub voting with generally good turnout) and Waukesha.Also: Sawyer County amuses me. Currently a 7 vote margin with 1 precinct yet to report. Nothing like a divided county to render themselves irrelevant.
Unless things change drastically, I wouldn’t expect the race to be called until tomorrow sometime. (It’s still pre-midnight in Wisconsin.) I don’t think that absentee or early votes have been counted yet …. And, honestly, those votes are probably in Prosser’s favor.
The Dangerman
@bemused senior:
Seems like grounds for something in the “Cheating Distance Principle” (a variant of the “Shut The Fuck Up” gambit)
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Looks like it’s not going to happen, folks. Almost all of the Dane precincts just came in, and they were empty.
JC
Oh shit. 6K for Prosser
L. Ron Obama
With Dane almost 100% in, I think the show is over.
guachi
ouch. 36 Dane precincts in with no votes changed. Only 5 precincts left there. Wonder if there will be any ballots to count manually there.
Still saying it’s 51-49 Prosser, though.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
i wonder how many lawyers from how many firms with ongoing proceedings in prosser’s court, are watching the results like railbirds with the gleam of billable hours in their eyes. you have to figure they put some time into prosser centric arguments.
Turgidson
And….we’re down 6k.
Laaaaaaaaame.
CZ4ever
Hmm, saw this linked from the Great Orange Satan:
http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/uploadedFiles/Media/PDF/Elected_Officials/County_Clerk/Election_Results/20110215_unofficial_results_summary.pdf
The results reported therein match the numbers on the AP site, which is showing only 130/198 Waukesha precincts reporting. If the PDF is supported to be final unofficial results, then all of the Prosser vote from Waukesha is already baked in to the current small Prosser lead.
Of course, the PDF might also simply be the current vote tally, in which case it adds nothing.
Something else to speculate about as we continuously hit our refresh button.
patroclus
@MikeJ:
Indeed. Now that she’s 6500 down, she’s beginning to resemble Martha Coakley to me…
kideni
@bemused senior: I did hear that several polling places in Madison and Middleton (suburb on Madison’s west side) ran out of ballots and had to get more printed, and some of those may not have been reported in yet. Ballots are optical scan (you draw a line to mark your vote).
Turgidson
wait, wait. Suddenly it’s 2k again. Whew.
Calouste
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN):
He should, but he won’t. IIRC the “bitch” remark he made about the Chief Justice was because either he or his buddy had to recuse himself but didn’t want to do it.
L. Ron Obama
Pretty impressive result even if a loss. Hopefully this will spur dems to redouble their efforts for the recalls.
Face
Thing about Wisky is that there’s a shitton of colleges…13 state schools (unless that’s changed). So that would appear to be islands of blue even in red counties. Of course, college kids dont vote b/c, like, ya know, Tosh.O is on TV. And stuff.
Mousebumples
@patroclus: Except that Coakley was favored all along. No one who knows Wisconsin expected Kloppenburg to have a chance until Walker and his cronies decided to stir things up a few months ahead of the election …
SFAW
Omnes –
I had. I came up with ~11K pro-K.
Not being from/near Wisco, I’m moderately clueless re: precincts, but I have a tough time believing that, within any given county, one precinct is 50 voters and another is 5000. Glad to be wrong, though, if it turns out for Kloppenburg.
WaterGirl
My browser was slow reloading, so I had time to catch the first comment on the thread, by Spaghetti Lee. We have come full circle:
Spaghetti Lee
Well, I hope there’s as many hand-written ballots in Madison as people are saying. Eau Claire is still out, and that will put it within a 1,000, probably, so there’s almost certainly going to be a recount.
fourmorewars
Strange goings-on in the Dane county reporting. Precincts reporting went from 207/248 to 243/248. But the totals changed barely if at all. 124 for her, 45 for him. I’m telling you, that’s gthe same figures from before give or take a hundred or two votes.
Was using xcel to project final margins (slow, but most counties were 100% by this time), and Dane would’ve grown from 79k up for her to 95k. Instead…???
L. Ron Obama
Note I am not calling it yet, just saying the closeness of the result is impressive (I had expected Prosser to win by a few % by virtue of incumbency)
JC
All this talk about ‘having to get new ballots’ – just talk, or something behind it?
If Dane is in, just talk, right?
OzoneR
@Tom Q:
Prossner won 55% in the primary race in February. This is a race without party labels. Dems were always the underdog but liberals somehow believed they were a shoo-in. Why? Because people were just going to see what’s “right” and vote appropriately. What? Was there going to be a grand fucking epiphany? Were Republicans going to disappear into thin air?
Surprise! there are as many, if not (and probably) more, of them as they are of you, and Independents are idiots who will say they support your issues but vote for someone else so they can pass as “moderate.” Also Citizens United change the landscape and made an already weak liberal movement even more weaker. I suspect if more people had actually fucking showed up and voted for Al Gore in 2000 even though he didn’t bring you to orgasm we wouldn’t have been in this situation, but that’s water under the bridge to nowhere.
Seriously, liberals get demoralized by waking up in the morning.
guachi
Even if all the votes are in from Waukesha, Prosser still wins by about 3k because of outstanding precincts in a handful of Republican leaning counties.
ktward
@Mousebumples: Sigh. Guess I’ll gulp my last bit of wine and start over tomorrow. But I suspect it’s gonna be a night of freaky dreams, having nothing to do with the alcohol.
Calouste
In the other election, the Dems won Milwaukee County Exec., Leader Walker’s old post, 60-40.
L. Ron Obama
@fourmorewars: You shoulda been here when 60 precincts came in for waukesha with 0 extra votes. What a tease it was, it seems so long ago now
The Political Nihilist Formerly Known As Kryptik
My problem, if the election stays with Prosser, isn’t going to be any gripes with Kloppenburg, or the voter turnout by volume. It’ll be more the fact that 1) despite the issue turning toward the side of good in the public discourse (at least within state it seems), Dems still get shafted when results are considered, and 2) it’ll mean that Walker and Co. will have their Get Out Of Jail Free card for a good long while unless the recalls really do ramp up and flip the State Senate.
Omnes Omnibus
@SFAW: The number of eligible voters in each precinct should be more or less equal, but the question is how many of those eligible voters actually vote.
JC
This is done, 97% in, 2K ahead for Prosser.
MikeJ
@Spaghetti Lee: Eau Claire is now 2/3rds in, still 60/40 for us, but that’s 9.5 to 6.3.
Could net 1000 there.
Mousebumples
@SFAW: I believe precincts are determined by the number of “eligible voters.” Turnout matters – and, traditionally, Tammy Baldwin’s district (Dane County) and Jim Sensenbrenners district (Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties) have been among the best US Rep districts, in terms of turnout, nationwide.
However, in a mid-term election like this, I would totally buy an “enthusiasm gap” that explains why different precincts have such disparate amounts of voters. Maybe 538 will do a post-election analysis to look into that … ?
patroclus
@Mousebumples:
I understand what you’re saying, but with me it’s binary. She loses; she’s a Coakley – she wins, she’s the new Hypatia.
peach flavored shampoo
Losing by less than 2K votes is extraordinarily painful. Either win or lose by 40K. This adds insult to anger.
L. Ron Obama
Heh, another 60 precincts came in for waukesha with 0 votes, it’s deja vu all over again
Turgidson
Latest update says Waukesha is all in, and it’s still 2k difference. Iiiiiiiinteresting.
Lev
Rest of Waukesha in. Surprise surprise, it had practically no effect. I’m thinking it ain’t over.
fourmorewars
@L. Ron Obama:
So maybe the votes change for the better in Dane, lagging behind the precinct reporting-in thing.
neff
This just came up on TPM:
peach flavored shampoo
Ruh roh. From TPM:
This will be the world’s ugliest recount to date.
Quarks
Josh Marshall at TPM is reporting unconfirmed counting errors. I am predicting a mess tomorrow.
guachi
Oh, wow. Are there any magic ponies for Prosser or Kloppenburg in the few remaining precincts? MIlwaukee, Portage ,and Dane for Klopp. Racine, Jefferson, Manitowoc, Marathon, Ozaukee for Prosser.
SFAW
OK, so Waukesha went from 65% reporting with a 50K Prosser lead, to 100% reporting with a 50K Prosser lead. I didn’t write down the actual tallies when they were at 65% – was this a bunch of zero-vote precincts? Or did people break 50-50 in the formerly-remaining 35% of precincts?
jah
with waukesha all in, looking very good for kloppenburg. precincts outstanding in dane and milwaukee counties close the gap.
Spaghetti Lee
@OzoneR:
Liberals get demoralized by waking up in the morning.
I do hope that this doesn’t lead to any bullshit finger-pointing and drama whoring among Democrats. If losing by 2,000 votes to a heavily favored Republican incumbent is all it takes to deflate 2 months of protesting, then maybe we deserve to get hammered.
MikeJ
@fourmorewars: Dane’s got 40 out, Milwaukee has 13, Eau Claire has 20.
Ozaukee, which is repub, has 8 out.
Dee Loralei
TPM is reporting with 97% of precincts in it’s Kloppenberg by 2K
SFAW
Gotta learn to type faster, a bunch of youse beat me to it, etc.
L. Ron Obama
@fourmorewars: Who knows, at this point. Hopefully we will know the winner by 2012.
MikeJ
BTW, CNN can bite me. You guys are the best political team on teh interwebs.
Citizen_X
@OzoneR:
Hey, that’s my lifestyle you’re talking about!
Joe Lisboa
1k differential with over 1.5 million votes cast? Oy vey.
fourmorewars
@SFAW: Raw vote totals barely moved, same as Dane. AP is SNAFU.
jwb
@SFAW: If I had to guess, I’d say they were reporting the vote tallies and the precinct tallies separately.
The Dangerman
@peach flavored shampoo:
What are the Brooks Brothers doing these days?
L. Ron Obama
@MikeJ: And at this rate any of those could be zero-vote totals. Heck apparently Waukesha had 0 votes in 120 precincts.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
alright so who has the hack codes for the diebold machines, c’mon one of you had to have worked for acorn!
peach flavored shampoo
@Dee Loralei: I think you mean Prosser, right? I see nothing that says K is ahead.
fourmorewars
They have her up now by 1600 or so.
patroclus
Kloppenburg down 1183 now. As the midnight hour approaches.
dilford
Hooboy, most fun an Iowa boy can have (without TV, booze, sex, drugs, etc.) – Klopp back in the lead!
guachi
Wow… one precinct in Republican Manitowoc and One precinct in Milwaukee report. Kloppenburg in lead as Milwaukee precinct was a net +3000 votes (about 5k-2k).
Mousebumples
Still outstanding counties (notable):
Ashland (22/28 reporting) – 71/29 K … maybe another a net 500 votes for K?
Dane (244/248) – 74/26 K … Depends on how big the outstanding precincts are. Apparently half of Middleton is still out, so maybe a few thousand yet, net, for K
Dunn (34/40) – 54/46 K … probably no more than a few hundred, net, for K
Eau Claire (40/61) – 60/40 K … probably another 2K or so, net, for K outstanding
Marathon (108/140) – 54/46 P … probably another 500-1000 for P, net, still oustanding
Milwaukee (473/486) – 56/44 K … hopefully another few thousand, net, for K still out there
Ozaukee (40/48) – 71/29 P … probably a few hundred more, net, for P
Racine (53/63) – 54/46 P … hopefully the missing precincts are more metro than rural, as that could swing a few votes our way
Sauk (31/39) – 55/45 K … maybe a few hundred, net, for K
Since the current count is P by about 1200, I can still see this going either way … Unfortunately for all of us with anxiety and/or heartburn issues.
jwb
@peach flavored shampoo: AP just had K ahead by about 1600.
kent
This is nucking futs! I’ve got a little excel spreadsheet and very simple (simplistic) math: # of votes received, divide by # of wards reporting so far (by county), multiply by total # of wards in the county, add up all the “projected” vote totals … right now it’s projecting 50.02% for Prosser. … 727,370 vs 726,830
(fwiw, which is very little)
MikeJ
Dane Co website says
48627 133513
which is newer than AP’s
46,839 129,415
peach flavored shampoo
Prosser up 3.5K all of a sudden. Game over?
joel hanes
Dane reports a couple more precincts,
and it’s Kloppenberg by only 400 votes.
fasteddie9318
Well, at least it will be another one of those moral victory thingies. They’re always nice.
JC
Okay, I think now it’s called – 5K up for Prosser, on AP.
Three-nineteen
@patroclus: I think you mean up by 1500. This isn’t going to be over for weeks, is it?
patroclus
Dang – now at 4600+ for the union-buster.
Dee Loralei
@peach flavored shampoo: No with 97% in TPM reports it’s Kopp with 707,961 and Prosser with 706,381.
kent
1 ward reports out of Milwaukee and now it’s projecting 49.92% for Prosser.
Yes I have no life why do you ask?
fourmorewars
Now him by 4700
joel hanes
and a minute later it’s Prosser by almost five thousand.
ruemara
I am going to think positive and say, it is outstanding that we are giving this good a fight for what was a shoo-in election just a couple of months ago. And Fuck Prosser. I don’t think he’ll pull off a clean victory, but even if he retains his seat, it won’t save Walker and the WI GOP party.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Now a 1465 vote difference with 123 precincts still to report. In Prosser counties, there’s 1 precinct in Taylor, 8 in Ozaukee, 1 in Oconto, 32 in Marathon (only 54/46 Prosser) 1 in Manitowoc, 1 in Jefferson and 2 in Calumet. Kloppenburg counties are 2 in Crawford, 2 in Dane, 6 in Dun (again 54/46), 21 in Eau Claire, the same 13 in Milwaukee we’ve had for a while and 4 in Portage.
Not looking good, unless the Dane and Milwaukee counties are swamped.
jwb
@JC: It’s hard to say. The AP tallies don’t seem to be coming in at the precinct level, so it’s difficult to say what’s in and what’s not at this point.
Omnes Omnibus
@peach flavored shampoo: Why would this one be game over?
peach flavored shampoo
Why are the vote totals changing but the % reporting isnt? Wisky Tango Fubar? Stuck at 97% as the numbers vacillate.
patroclus
now 2415 down.
me
It all depends on what’s left in Milwaukee.
MikeJ
WEAU reports: Eau Claire Co. ran out of ballots, hand count necessary
JC
Thanks TTP (JMN).
Good final reporting, this isn’t going to be done tonight, I guess?
guachi
One Dane precinct reports and Prosser’s lead is cut in half to 2400. Nailbiter!!!!
And no ballots in Eau Claire explains why so few precincts are in. Good news for Dems, though
Spaghetti Lee
Jesus Christ, 1.5 million for a state SC election in April.
Depends on what’s left in Milwaukee and Eau Claire. Sensenbrenner/Petri-land has cast almost all their votes.
jah
down 2400 with ozaukee and racine all in. 1 dane and 12 milwaukee and 20 eau claire still outstanding. looking good imo.
Three-nineteen
Milwaukee news is reporting that Milwaukee County just started counting over 8000 absentee ballots.
patroclus
now down 1737.
Dork
@Omnes Omnibus: I think b/c Prosser’s lead jumped so dramatically, but I cant speak for the ‘poo.
Dee Loralei
@peach flavored shampoo: Because the 97%are number of precincts reporting, no one knows yet how many actual voters voted in each precinct. The voter totals are the actual vote count and percentage of vote total so far counted.
L. Ron Obama
This is more exciting than is probably healthy.
fourmorewars
Prosser up 2400. Any of you use thos machines at the supermarket where you dump in your change? ‘Please wait while we catch up.’
jwb
@peach flavored shampoo: I don’t think they are tallying by the precinct—that’s the only way the numbers are making any sense. Maybe they are tallying by batches of optical scans?
Bloodstar
Eau Claire County should contribute another 2.5K votes more towards Kloppenburg than Prosser. It’s going to be close but I think Kloppenburg has a very very good chance to win.
Dee Loralei
@Dee Loralei: Josh says don’t quote him, but precincts left to count look to favor Klopp. Keep fingers crossed folks!
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
Fuck it. I did all of that analysis, and not only had it updated already, but it’s rapidly becoming apparent that the precinct count and the vote count aren’t updated at the same time. Who the fuck knows what’s happening.
JC
Marathon, Milwaukee, Eau Claire left. Back and forth 7 times now, still holding at 97%.
AkaDad
I’m seeing Prosser up 1,800 with 97% reporting.
themann1086
I think I’m gonna call it a night, since this will go to recount anyway; thanks for the entertainment everyone!
Punchy
Doesn’t the final count total really mean squat if there’s indeed 8K absentee votes to count? Or would those be expected to break 50/50? Who absentees a SC election?
FreeAtLast
This won’t get settled tonight. Good night.
MikeJ
Direct link to Eau Claire’s pdf, but don’t expect anything anytime soon with them doing a hand count.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
I’m going to go back to painting for a bit. If anything big happens, someone make sure to holler loud enough that I can hear you about 30 feet from the computer.
L. Ron Obama
Yeah, I think I’ll check back in a week or so. I’m out.
guachi
Eww… Bad result out of the rest of Ozaukee. More votes for Prosser than I expected in the last 8 precincts. Still agree with Josh at TPM that there should be enough votes for Kloppenburg to be ahead going into the inevitable recount.
Omnes Omnibus
@Punchy:You can walk into a city hall in WI and vote absentee for no reason at all. I do it all the time. I did it this time. When I voted on Monday, there was a steady stream of people coming in to do the same thing.
It is too close to call tonight.
JC
This will change, I’m sure, but fyi, the current vote differential is .12 percent. Definitely less than the .50
Mousebumples
@Punchy: Generally, those most likely to absentee are senior citizens due to the possible logistical issues with them making it to a polling place.
However, Wisconsin absentee/early voting rules are pretty lax. You don’t even need to give a reason/explanation for why you want to vote early.
So I can see it going 50/50, especially given the Milwaukee returns (otherwise).
patroclus
now down 1,684…
kent
Ozaukee wasn’t bad at all, in line with earlier portions of the county. Projecting 49.97% for Prosser right now but that # should go down a tad.
Three-nineteen
Milwaukee news is starting in with “the large centrist middle is getting tired of partisans on both sides”, so it looks like bedtime for me too.
MikeJ
My estimate (read as wild ass guess) for EC is a net of 1500 for K. Which puts us just about ding dong dead even.
Absentee and hand written manual counts are going to tell the tale.
Expect Republican law suit over hand written ballots before COB tomorrow.
TooManyJens
“Marathon co election website says the remaining percints to be counted are all in city of Wausau (better for Kloppenberg)”
http://twitter.com/#!/erikkaknuti/status/55497078901710848
The Dangerman
@MikeJ:
Yup; this is headed for a crazy recount, with suits from here to there. Bedtime, nothing being settle tonight.
Mart
Torturous.
Going to bed as this one will be at least a few weeks to sort out.
kent
TooManyJens: thanks! great news!
Omnes Omnibus
@TooManyJens: That is great news. Wausau (Pop. ~40,000) tends Dem. while the rest of county, not so much.
MikeJ
Marathon Co website:
[Microsoft][ODBC Microsoft Access Driver] Too many client tasks.
/elections.asp, line 9
jwb
What the closeness of this contest tells me is that we’re going to have a hell of a time with the government shut down. Yes, it’s remarkable that K could do this well against an incumbent judge when these sorts of races usually attract about a fifth of this number of voters. But look at how many votes P received. In a “normal” year K would have walked away with this election with the numbers she received. Wherever it’s coming from, P’s vote total demonstrates a lot of motivation by voters on the right and I think that translates into a bad situation in terms of who gets blamed for the government shut down.
FlipYrWhig
C’mon, Butler!
TooManyJens
@MikeJ:
Oh, Christ.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@FlipYrWhig: Sorry. That one wasn’t close enough for a recount.
patroclus
now down 2099. The GOS is saying the 97 outstanding precincts are mostly pro-Kloppenburg.
Uriel
@WaterGirl: Ok, this is really getting weird- you’re like the 10th person on this blog who’s mentioned that they either live, or have lived, in C-U. For a town it’s size, it just seems statistically very strange.
Interesting to hear Don won- I still remember getting responsibly lubricated socially listening to Moon Seven Times…
Uriel
@WaterGirl: Ok, this is really getting weird- you’re like the 10th person on this blog who’s mentioned that they either live, or have lived, in C-U. For a town it’s size, it just seems statistically very strange.
Interesting to hear Don won- I still remember getting responsibly lubricated socially listening to Moon Seven Times…
patroclus
now down 2003.
TooManyJens
Is Middleton Democratic? Apparently half of Middleton is still out.
Edit: nevermind, GOP spokesman says they do not expect to do well there.
kideni
@TooManyJens: Middleton is Russ Feingold’s hometown.
patroclus
now down 1878.
Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)
@Uriel: The Moon Seven Times? Ha! I think we played a show with hem.
That’s a blast from the past.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
AP now has Prosser up by 1878 votes with 55 precincts outstanding. (This is assuming that the precincts listed as being out are, in fact, out, which I’m no longer confident of.) Those 55 by county with county votes so far (Pr/Kl):
6 in Ashland (29/71)
2 in Crawford (41/59)
1 in Dane (27/73)
2 in Dunn (45/55)
21 in Eau Claire (40/60)
1 in Jefferson (58/42)
1 in Juneau (48/52)
12 in Milwaukee (43/57)
8 in Sauk (45/55)
1 in Taylor (61/39)
So, it’s safe to say that what’s out there is probably in Klopperburg’s favor. No idea if it’s enough, though. No idea if it even matters that much, with a recount coming.
patroclus
now down 585.
kideni
Eau Claire just reported in, and Kloppenburg picked up about another 1,200 votes; down by fewer than 600
Martin
Heh, the shrieks of voter fraud are going to be epic on this one. You guys are going to have to submit to a DNA test and have to recite the Bill of Rights from memory before voting in 2012.
Spaghetti Lee
Gotta say, I like Kloppenburg’s chances. The outstanding precincts are from counties she’s done well in.
Spaghetti Lee
@Martin:
Let ’em wail. This is what democracy looks like.
Martin
Oh, and a better than 40% turnout for a stupid fucking judge election that is, quite honestly, favoring the Dem in a state that went GOP across the board just 6 months ago.
The GOP are truly fucked. This should have been a reaffirmation of the November election.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Martin:
the best part is, lawyers without borders will probably have to mobilize for each party to really descend on madison. man, if i only owned a coffee shop/titty bar/brassed to bejeesus nightmare place lawyers drink at in that town, i would be rich. gotta wonder how prepared each side is,or how willing they are to go bush v gore up in that piece.
Origuy
@Uriel:
Make that 11. Was in CU 74-78.
Karen
Look how long it took for Franken to get in office…
I predict if Prosser loses, he’ll demand a recount even if he’s losing by 5%.
I predict if Prosser wins only by 400 votes they’ll demand Kloppenburg concede.
But I admit I’m ignorant of the WI situation judgewise but is this an incumbant SC? If it is, won’t he just make a ruling by appointing himself?
Yutsano
@Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal: The owner of Ian’s Pizza not only must have made a killing during the protests, s/he also got worldwide exposure most small business can only salivate over.
Spaghetti Lee
@Karen:
He is incumbent, but there’s gotta be laws against that sort of thing. Besides, it’s not like he’s the only judge on the court.
Yutsano
@Spaghetti Lee: IIRC his term ends right before the election, but I could be wrong about that.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
@Karen:
I suspect that even in the godless wilds of Wisconsin, a judge would not normally be allowed to rule on his own election.
I presume any court cases would be heard by the rest of the Wisconsin supreme court, including that lovely lady Chief Justice who he called a bitch and threatened to destroy.
Triassic Sands
Remind me to never go to Fond du Lac county. On second thought, no one needs to remind me — one look at the vote totals and the message is seared into my brain — Fond du Lac county is off limits — stupid, ignorant, and just plain horrible human beings abound. What the hell is wrong with those people? (Rhetorical question.)
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Yutsano:
sometimes i order from a coffee co-op that roasts and has brick and mortar in madison. they also sell to a food co-op nearby, that is two customers used to their very conscientous service who are being asked to hold on a bit. this would probably continue the boom, usually businesses in a capital city/college town have a pretty familiar business cycle, all of this is extraordinarily good for them,bad for regs not used to waiting.
Yutsano
@Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal: Somehow, given the circumstances, I have a feeling the regulars to the shop will be rather forgiving of the temporary inconvenience.
ETA: And I bet the roasting operation isn’t affected much by the sudden sales spike to delay delivery to the co-op.
JGabriel
4:07am
Prosser (R-Douche): 733,074
Kloppenburg (D): 732,489
34 precincts left to report, out of 3630.
A difference of 585 votes, out of 1,465,563 counted so far.
That’s roughly a margin of 0.04%, with less than 1% of the precincts left to report.
I’d say we’re definitely in recount territory.
.
JGabriel
It should be noted that of the 34 precincts that haven’t reported yet, 29 are in counties that voted heavily for Kloppenburg.
.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
@Yutsano:
actually they have been, but that is to be expected. i want this group to do well, and i want obviously for walker to be crushed like a grape…so…
Dave N.
I live in Fond du Lac County (in the city of Fond du Lac), and I can attest that this area is chock full of the grade-A birther-type wingnuts. Joe the Plumber actually made several appearance at teabagger rallies in Fond du Lac.
There was a candidate for school board in FDL who ran on the idea that the best way to fix the public schools was to defund public schools and give the money to private schools. Thank goodness he lost.
Trolling the message boards on the local paper’s website is actually great fun. Those boards are a working example of Poe’s Law. It is almost impossible to post something so outlandish as to appear fake.
me
Apparently the counting in Madison is done so those are the final totals there. The remaining vote in Milwaukee is in small precincts.
kindness
After all that has gone down in Wisconsin, I’m shocked that this is even close, let alone that Pressor is ahead by several hundred votes as on now. If the good people of Wisconsin aren’t willing to get off their butts to vote for their own best interests, I’m wondering why I should help ’em. Yea, I know that is incredibly selfish of me, but with all the crap I need to direct my energy (and scarce dollars) at in this political world….well, just fuck ’em. I’ll help control what I can help control. Those things I can’t are not in my ability and so I think I’ll be dropping some stuff from my radar. Kinda like Texas. I have no ill feelings about Texas but since I can’t do squat about their large majority of idiots and buttheads, I won’t waste my time, energy & $.
Short sighted? Certainly. Reasoned protection of my own sanity? Definitely.
Mousebumples
Awake after a good night’s sleep, and here are the tallies from the outstanding precincts. Like we’ve said before, it’s quite possible some of these “not yet reported” precincts are empty precincts, as that’s happened before in a few different counties.
County name – Precincts left, K/P
Ashland – 6, 71/29
Crawford – 2, 59/41
Dane – 1, 73/27
Dunn – 2, 55/45
Jefferson – 1, 42/58
Milwaukee – 2, 57/43
Sauk – 8, 55/45
Taylor – 1, 39/61
The italicized counties are the two remaining that likely have votes outstanding in favor of Prosser. All the other outstanding precincts (i.e. all but 2) should likely favor Kloppenburg when they report in.
The current margin is 835, in favor of Prosser. I know that Wisconsin doesn’t mandate recounts, but if this isn’t recount territory, I don’t know what is … (especially with all the reports of running out of ballots, etc.)
Mousebumples
Update: Kloppenburg pulls ahead, with the rest of Ashland (6 districts) and Sauk (8 districts) reporting.
It appears that all of the other districts from my comment just above this one are still oustanding.
Her lead is only 140 votes at this point …
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples: Didn’t want you to wonder if you are talking to yourself here…
I really appreciate all the updates!
ChrisB
As of 10:47 a.m., Kloppenburg is ahead by 369 votes, 738,883 to 738,514 with 5 precincts outstanding. Of those 5 precincts, 2 are in counties that went for Kloppenburg, 2 are in counties that went for Prosser, and 1 in a county that was split between them.
We’ll see what the recount says.
Mousebumples
Glad to see I’m not the only one still refreshing this thread!
Here is an article on the election from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. I’m not the sort to look for a “moral victory” (especially since we’re presently in the lead!), but this quote really puts the chances that Kloppenburg had in correct perspective, I think:
Incumbent justices (mostly) win by default in Wisconsin. Would I prefer for her to have blown him out of the water? Obviously. However, given past precedent in Wisconsin, that seemed pretty unlikely.
JGabriel
Kloppenburg (D) now leading by 224 votes out of 1,478,924 counted, with 3627 or 3630 precincts reporting.
Prosser 739,350
Kloppenburg 739,574
This is ridiculously close: Kloppenburg leads by 0.015%
.
NovShmozKaPop
AP: with 3629 of 3630 reporting it’s Prosser 739,354 and Kloppenburg 739,589. Up by 235 votes.